Monte Carlo modelling of cometary dynamics

Monte Carlo simulations can either be viewed as a numerical method for solving evolutionary equations or as a way for statistically modelling the outcome of chaotic dynamical systems. Thus they are well suited for treating many aspects of cometary dynamics. We present a critical review of past applications of Monte Carlo simulations for both long- and short-period comets indicating the strength and weaknesses of the methods with suggestions for future applications.     

Dynamic Monte Carlo radiation transfer in SPH: radiation pressure force implementation

We present a new framework for radiation hydrodynamics simulations. Gas dynamics is modelled by smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH), whereas radiation transfer is simulated via a time-dependent Monte Carlo approach that traces photon packets. As a first step in the development of the method, in this paper we consider the momentum transfer between radiation field and gas, which is important for systems where radiation pressure is high. There is no fundamental limitation on the number of radiation sources, the geometry or the optical depth of the problems that can be studied with the method. However, as expected for any Monte Carlo transfer scheme, stochastic noise presents a serious limitation. We present a number of tests that show that the errors of the method can be estimated accurately by considering Poisson noise fluctuations in the number of photon packets that SPH particles interact with per dynamical time. It is found that, for a reasonable accuracy, the momentum carried by photon packets must be much smaller than the typical momentum of SPH particles. We discuss numerical limitations of the code, and future steps that can be taken to improve performance and applicability of the method.     

Bounded relative motion under zonal harmonics perturbations

The problem of finding natural bounded relative trajectories between the different units of a distributed space system is of great interest to the astrodynamics community. This is because most popular initialization methods still fail to establish long-term bounded relative motion when gravitational perturbations are involved. Recent numerical searches based on dynamical systems theory and ergodic maps have demonstrated that bounded relative trajectories not only exist but may extend up to hundreds of kilometers, i.e., well beyond the reach of currently available techniques. To remedy this, we introduce a novel approach that relies on neither linearized equations nor mean-to-osculating orbit element mappings. The proposed algorithm applies to rotationally symmetric bodies and is based on a numerical method for computing quasi-periodic invariant tori via stroboscopic maps, including extra constraints to fix the average of the nodal period and RAAN drift between two consecutive equatorial plane crossings of the quasi-periodic solutions. In this way, bounded relative trajectories of arbitrary size can be found with great accuracy as long as these are allowed by the natural dynamics and the physical constraints of the system (e.g., the surface of the gravitational attractor). This holds under any number of zonal harmonics perturbations and for arbitrary time intervals as demonstrated by numerical simulations about an Earth-like planet and the highly oblate primary of the binary asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4.     

Monte Carlo simulations of star clusters – IV. Calibration of the Monte Carlo code and comparison with observations for the open cluster M67

We outline the steps needed in order to incorporate the evolution of single and binary stars into a particular Monte Carlo code for the dynamical evolution of a star cluster. We calibrate the results against N -body simulations, and present models for the evolution of the old open cluster M67 (which has been studied thoroughly in the literature with N -body techniques). The calibration is done by choosing appropriate free code parameters. We describe, in particular, the evolution of the binary, white dwarf and blue straggler populations, though not all channels for blue straggler formation are represented yet in our simulations. Calibrated Monte Carlo runs show good agreement with results of N -body simulations not only for global cluster parameters, but also for, for example, binary fraction, luminosity function and surface brightness. Comparison of Monte Carlo simulations with observational data for M67 shows that it is possible to get reasonably good agreement between them. Unfortunately, because of the large statistical fluctuations of the numerical data and uncertainties in the observational data the inferred conclusions about the cluster initial conditions are not firm.     

Monte Carlo simulations of star clusters — I. First Results

A revision of Stodoíkiewicz's Monte Carlo code is used to simulate evolution of star clusters. The new method treats each superstar as a single star and follows the evolution and motion of all individual stellar objects. The first calculations for isolated, equal-mass N -body systems with three-body energy generation according to Spitzer's formulae show good agreement with direct N -body calculations for N  = 2000, 4096 and 10 000 particles. The density, velocity, mass distributions, energy generation, number of binaries, etc., follow the N -body results. Only the number of escapers is slightly too high compared with N -body results, and there is no level-off anisotropy for advanced post-collapse evolution of Monte Carlo models as is seen in N -body simulations for N  ≤ 2000. For simulations with N  > 10 000 gravothermal oscillations are clearly visible. The calculations of N   2000, 4096, 10 000, 32 000 and 100 000 models take about 2, 6, 20, 130 and 2500 h, respectively. The Monte Carlo code is at least 10⁵ times faster than the N -body one for N  = 32 768 with special-purpose hardware. Thus it becomes possible to run several different models to improve statistical quality of the data and run individual models with N as large as 100 000. The Monte Carlo scheme can be regarded as a method which lies in the middle between direct N -body and Fokker–Planck models and combines most advantages of both methods.     

Long-term capture orbits for low-energy space missions

This research aims at ascertaining the existence and characteristics of natural long-term capture orbits around a celestial body of potential interest. The problem is investigated in the dynamical framework of the three-dimensional circular restricted three-body problem. Previous numerical work on two-dimensional trajectories provided numerical evidence of Conley’s theorem, proving that long-term capture orbits are topologically located near trajectories asymptotic to periodic libration point orbits. This work intends to extend the previous investigations to three-dimensional paths. In this dynamical context, several special trajectories exist, such as quasiperiodic orbits. These can be found as special solutions to the linear expansion of the dynamics equations and have already been proven to exist even using the nonlinear equations of motion. The nature of long-term capture orbits is thus investigated in relation to the dynamical conditions that correspond to asymptotic trajectories converging into quasiperiodic orbits. The analysis results in the definition of two parameters characterizing capture condition and the design of a capture strategy, guiding a spacecraft into long-term capture orbits around one of the primaries. Both the results are validated through numerical simulations of the three-dimensional nonlinear dynamics, including fourth-body perturbation, with special focus on the Jupiter–Ganymede system and the Earth–Moon system.     

A keplerian method to estimate perturbations in the restricted three-body problem

We develop a new and fast method to estimate perturbations by a planet on cometary orbits. This method allows us to identify accurately the cases of large perturbations in a set of fictitious orbits. Hence, it can be used in constructing perturbation samples for Monte Carlo simulations in order to maximize the amount of information. Furthermore, the estimated perturbations are found to yield a good approximation to the real perturbation sample. This is shown by a comparison of the perturbations obtained by the new estimator with the results of numerical integration of regularized equations of motion for the same orbits in the same dynamical model: the three-dimensional elliptic restricted three-body problem (Sun-Jupiter-comet).     

Performance of the stereoscopic system of the HEGRA imaging air erenkov telescopes: Monte Carlo simulations and observations

Based on the Monte Carlo simulations we have studied the performance of the HEGRA system of imaging air erenkov telescopes (IACTs) in its present configuration of 4 IACTs as well as in its future final configuration of 5 IACTs. Here we present the results on the basic characteristics of the IACT system which are used in the standard data analysis procedure, i.e., the collection areas, the detection rates, the angular resolution, the energy resolution, and the γ/hadron-separation efficiency. By comparing several key Monte Carlo predictions with experimental results it is possible to check the accuracy of the simulations. The Monte Carlo results concerning hadron-nuclear showers are tested with the recorded cosmic ray events and the results concerning photon-induced showers are tested with a large data sample of γ-rays observed from BL Lac object Mkn 501 during its high flaring activity in 1997. Summarizing the simulations and current observations we give the basic recommendations of using the instrument and the major values of its sensitivity.     

exofit: orbital parameters of extrasolar planets from radial velocities

Retrieval of orbital parameters of extrasolar planets poses considerable statistical challenges. Due to sparse sampling, measurement errors, parameters degeneracy and modelling limitations, there are no unique values of basic parameters, such as period and eccentricity. Here, we estimate the orbital parameters from radial velocity data in a Bayesian framework by utilizing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. We follow a methodology recently proposed by Gregory and Ford. Our implementation of MCMC is based on the object-oriented approach outlined by Graves. We make our resulting code, exofit , publicly available with this paper. It can search for either one or two planets as illustrated on mock data. As an example we re-analysed the orbital solution of companions to HD 187085 and HD 159868 from the published radial velocity data. We confirm the degeneracy reported for orbital parameters of the companion to HD 187085, and show that a low-eccentricity orbit is more probable for this planet. For HD 159868, we obtained slightly different orbital solution and a relatively high 'noise' factor indicating the presence of an unaccounted signal in the radial velocity data. exofit is designed in such a way that it can be extended for a variety of probability models, including different Bayesian priors.     

Sinking, tidally stripped, galactic satellites

Tidally interacting galaxies offer an interesting field for the investigation of chaotic phenomena in stellar systems. When the galaxies are gravitationally bound, and one of them is much larger than the other, the latter can be regarded as a satellite of the former. The study of their dynamics is somewhat simplified in this case, which presents well observed examples in nature (e.g., globular clusters). Galactic satellites suffer orbital decay due to dynamical friction, a process that may be greatly enhanced in the presence of chaotic motions. Besides, the satellite is stripped by the field of tidal forces and, in the long run, it will disintegrate completely. Modern observations are able to show the signature of these processes taking place at present.     

A non-parametric approach to infer the energy spectrum and the mass composition of cosmic rays

The experiment KASCADE observes simultaneously the electron–photon, muon, and hadron components of high-energy extensive air showers (EAS). The analysis of EAS observables for an estimate of energy and mass of the primary particle invokes extensive Monte Carlo simulations of the EAS development for preparing reference patterns. The present studies utilize the air shower simulation code corsika with the hadronic interaction models VENUS, QGSJet and Sibyll, including simulations of the detector response and efficiency. By applying non-parametric techniques the measured data have been analyzed in an event-by-event mode and the mass and energy of the EAS inducing particles are reconstructed. Special emphasis is given to methodical limitations and the dependence of the results on the hadronic interaction model used. The results obtained from KASCADE data reproduce the knee in the primary spectrum, but reveal a strong model dependence. Owing to the systematic uncertainties introduced by the hadronic interaction models no strong change of chemical composition can be claimed in the energy range around the knee.     

Long-term evolution of Oort Cloud comets: methods and comparisons

Two long-term simulation methods for cometary orbits, a Monte Carlo method and a direct integration method, are compared with each other. The comparison is done in seven inclination and perihelion distance intervals, and shows differences in dynamical lifetime and capture probabilities for the following main reasons. We use a finite energy step approximation in the Monte Carlo method and the method considers only close approaches with the planets. The differences can be taken into account statistically and it is possible to calculate the correction factors for the capture probability and dynamical lifetime in the Monte Carlo method. Both corrections depend on the inclination and on the value of the minimum energy step. The capture probabilities of the short-period comets originating in the Oort Cloud are calculated by the corrected Monte Carlo method and compared with published results.     

An analytical approach to fluctuations in showers

We review the problem of fluctuations in particle shower theory. By using a generalization of Furry equation, we find relations between the n-particle correlation function and the number of particles average or 1-particle correlation function. Such relations show that the average is the only independent dynamical variable. We also develop a numerical code to solve the equation for the correlation functions and compare the results with those from a Monte Carlo simulation which show a perfect agreement between both methods.     

Radiative transfer in disc galaxies – I. A comparison of four methods to solve the transfer equation in plane-parallel geometry

Accurate photometric and kinematic modelling of disc galaxies requires the inclusion of radiative transfer models. Because of the complexity of the radiative transfer equation (RTE), sophisticated techniques are required. Various techniques have been employed for the attenuation in disc galaxies, but a quantitative comparison of them is difficult, because of the differing assumptions, approximations and accuracy requirements that are adopted in the literature. In this paper, we present an unbiased comparison of four methods to solve the RTE, in terms of accuracy, efficiency and flexibility. We apply them all to one problem that can serve as a first approximation of large portions of disc galaxies: a one-dimensional plane-parallel geometry, with both absorption and multiple scattering taken into account, with arbitrary vertical distributions of stars and dust and an arbitrary angular redistribution of the scattering. We find that the spherical harmonics method is by far the most efficient way to solve the RTE, whereas both Monte Carlo simulations and the iteration method, which are straightforward to extend to more complex geometries, have a cost that is about 170 times larger.     

Chaotic motion of comets in near-parabolic orbit: Mapping approaches

There exist many comets with near-parabolic orbits in the Solar System. Among various theories proposed to explain their origin, the Oort cloud hypothesis seems to be the most reasonable (Oort, 1950). The theory assumes that there is a cometary cloud at a distance 10³ – 10⁵ AU from the Sun and that perturbing forces from planets or stars make orbits of some of these comets become of near-parabolic type. Concerning the evolution of these orbits under planetary perturbations, we can raise the question: Will they stay in the Solar System forever or will they escape from it? This is an attractive dynamical problem. If we go ahead by directly solving the dynamical differential equations, we may encounter the difficulty of long-time computation. For the orbits of these comets are near-parabolic and their periods are too long to study on their long-term evolution. With mapping approaches the difficulty will be overcome. In another aspect, the study of this model has special meaning for chaotic dynamics. We know that in the neighbourhood of any separatrix i.e. the trajectory with zero frequency of the unperturbed motion of an Hamiltonian system, some chaotic motions have to be expected. Actually, the simplest example of separatrix is the parabolic trajectory of the two body problem which separates the bounded and unbounded motion. From this point of view, the dynamical study on near-parabolic motion is very important. Petrosky's elegant but more abstract deduction gives a Kepler mapping which describes the dynamics of the cometary motion (Petrosky, 1988). In this paper we derive a similar mapping directly and discuss its dynamical characters.     

Dynamical evolution of fragmenting gas clouds

Previous numerical simulations have shown that under certain conditions rotating gas clouds break up in two equal parts. We explore the consequences, if this process continues and a planar, equal mass four-body system forms. The results of the four-body calculations are used in Monte Carlo simulation of fragmentation of a rotating gas cloud in a galactic nucleus. Then it appears possible that clusters of large numbers of objects form; the dynamical evolution of these clusters have been calculated. The results were applied to ejection of supermassive objects from galactic nuclei. We find that several statistical properties of double radio sources may be understood as resulting from the fragmentation process.     

Multidimensional simulations of radiative transfer in Type Ia supernovae

A three-dimensional Monte Carlo code for modelling radiation transport in Type Ia supernovae is described. In addition to tracking Monte Carlo quanta to follow the emission, scattering and deposition of radiative energy, a scheme involving volume-based Monte Carlo estimators is used to allow properties of the emergent radiation field to be extracted for specific viewing angles in a multidimensional structure. This eliminates the need to compute spectra or light curves by angular binning of emergent quanta. The code is applied to two test problems to illustrate consequences of multidimensional structure on the modelling of light curves. First, elliptical models are used to quantify how large-scale asphericity can introduce angular dependence to light curves. Secondly, a model which incorporates complex structural inhomogeneity, as predicted by modern explosion models, is used to investigate how such structure may affect light-curve properties.     

Adiabatic Deceleration of Solar Energetic Particles as Deduced from Monte Carlo Simulations of Interplanetary Transport

Monte Carlo simulations of interplanetary transport are employed to study adiabatic energy losses of solar protons during propagation in the interplanetary medium. We consider four models. The first model is based on the diffusion-convection equation. Three other models employ the focused transport approach. In the focused transport models, we simulate elastic scattering in the local solar wind frame and magnetic focusing. We adopt three methods to treat scattering. In two models, we simulate a pitch-angle diffusion as successive isotropic or anisotropic small-angle scatterings. The third model treats large-angle scatterings as numerous small-chance isotropizations. The deduced intensity–time profiles are compared with each other, with Monte Carlo solutions to the diffusion-convection equation, and with results of the finite-difference scheme by Ruffolo (1995). A numerical agreement of our Monte Carlo simulations with results of the finite-difference scheme is good. For the period shortly after the maximum intensity time, including deceleration can increase the decay rate of the near-Earth intensity essentially more than would be expected based on advection from higher momenta. We, however, find that the excess in the exponential-decay rate is time dependent. Being averaged over a reasonably long period, the decay rate of the near-Earth intensity turns out to be close to that expected based on diffusion, convection, and advection from higher momenta. We highlight a variance of the near-Earth energy which is not small in comparison with the energy lost. It leads to blurring of any fine details in the accelerated particle spectra. We study the impact of realistic spatial dependencies of the mean free path on adiabatic deceleration and on the near-Earth intensity magnitude. We find that this impact is essential whenever adiabatic deceleration itself is important. It is also found that the initial angular distribution of particles near the Sun can markedly affect MeV-proton energy losses and intensities observed at 1 AU. Computations invoked during the study are described in detail.     

Star Cluster Simulations: the State of the Art

This paper concentrates on four key tools for performing star cluster simulations developed during the last decade which are sufficient to handle all the relevant dynamical aspects. First we discuss briefly the Hermite integration scheme which is simple to use and highly efficient for advancing the single particles. The main numerical challenge is in dealing with weakly and strongly perturbed hard binaries. A new treatment of the classical Kustaanheimo-Stiefel two-body regularization has proved to be more accurate for studying binaries than previous algorithms based on divided differences or Hermite integration. This formulation employs a Taylor series expansion combined with the Stumpff functions, still with one force evaluation per step, which gives exact solutions for unperturbed motion and is at least comparable to the polynomial methods for large perturbations. Strong interactions between hard binaries and single stars or other binaries are studied by chain regularization which ensures a non-biased outcome for chaotic motions. A new semi-analytical stability criterion for hierarchical systems has been adopted and the long-term effects on the inner binary are now treated by averaging techniques for cases of interest. These modifications describe consistent changes of the orbital variables due to large Kozai cycles and tidal dissipation. The range of astrophysical processes which can now be considered by N-body simulations include tidal capture, circularization, mass transfer by Roche-lobe overflow as well as physical collisions, where the masses and radii of individual stars are modelled by synthetic stellar evolution. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Lateral Trigger Probability function for the Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Ray showers detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory

In this paper we introduce the concept of Lateral Trigger Probability (LTP) function, i.e., the probability for an Extensive Air Shower (EAS) to trigger an individual detector of a ground based array as a function of distance to the shower axis, taking into account energy, mass and direction of the primary cosmic ray. We apply this concept to the surface array of the Pierre Auger Observatory consisting of a 1.5 km spaced grid of about 1600 water Cherenkov stations. Using Monte Carlo simulations of ultra-high energy showers the LTP functions are derived for energies in the range between 10¹⁷ and 10¹⁹ eV and zenith angles up to 65°. A parametrization combining a step function with an exponential is found to reproduce them very well in the considered range of energies and zenith angles. The LTP functions can also be obtained from data using events simultaneously observed by the fluorescence and the surface detector of the Pierre Auger Observatory (hybrid events). We validate the Monte Carlo results showing how LTP functions from data are in good agreement with simulations.