Tectonic Plate Parameters Estimated in the International Terrestrial Reference Frame ITRF2008 Based on SLR Stations

This paper concerns an analysis of the accuracy of estimated parameters Ω (Φ, Λ, ω) which define the tectonic plate motions. The study is based on the velocities of station positions published by ITRF2008 for Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) technique. The Eurasian, African, North American and Australian plates were used in the analysis. Influence of the number and location of stations on the plate surface on estimation accuracy of the tectonic plate motion parameters was discussed. The results were compared with the APKIM 2005 IGN model. In general, a remarkable concurrence agreement between our solutions and the APKIM 2005 model was found.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Time changes of the potential Love tidal parameters k2 and k3

The planet Earth is continuously changing in time, so there are phenomena that require continuous observation, including tidal parameters. The main goal of this study is to analyze time changes of the Love potential tidal parameters. This paper concerns an analysis of the estimated Love numbers k for the second and the third degree tides (numbers k₂ and k₃), associated with the tide variations of the satellite motion. The measured data used for determining the parameters k₂, k₃ were conducted within the period of January 1, 2014 until July 1, 2016 by LAGEOS-1 and LAGEOS-2 satellites. The results were compared with our previous determination of these parameters from LAGEOS data during the period from January 1, 2005 until July 1, 2007 to examine whether any systematic differences and time evolution occur. The adjusted values for k₂ equalling 0.29842 ± 0.00008 and k₃ equalling 0.0901 ± 0.0034 are discussed and compared with the nominal values given in International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service standards. The differences between the k₂ and k₃ values obtained for the time interval 2005.0–2007.5 and the results for 2014.0–2016.5 interval are –0.00288 for k₂ and 0.0042 for k₃. The obtained differences in the k₂ and k₃ values may indicate their evolution in time.     

Seismic source zoning and maximum credible earthquake prognosis of the Greater Kashmir Territory,NW Himalaya

We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m _max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M _w 7.7, M _w 8.5, and M _w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m _max of M _w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m _max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m _max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.     

A subduction channel model for exhumation of oceanic-type high-pressure to ultrahigh-pressure eclogite-facies metamorphic rocks in SW Tianshan,China

High-pressure (HP) and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) eclogites exposed in collisional orogens are widely regarded to record the history of crustal rocks that were subducted to mantle depths and exhumed back to the surface. Insight into subduction and exhumation processes plays an important role in understanding the nature and evolution of subduction zones, geodynamics and plate tectonics. In contrast to continental-type HP to UHP metamorphic rocks that are dominated by felsic lithology, oceanic-type HP to UHP metamorphic rocks are dominated by mafic eclogites and thus have greater density, and their exhumation needs to overcome large barriers and may involve complicated tectonic processes. The exhumation of HP to UHP rocks is mainly influenced by the internal buoyancy, however, the external tectonic forces (such as channel flow) also act as effective exhumation drivers; in addition, effects of tectonic settings (such as slab rollback and breakoff) should take into account. The HP-UHP metamorphic terrane in Southwestern Tianshan, which mainly comprises of metasediments with interlayered metamafic lenses and blocks, represents a typical accretionary mélange associated with deep subduction of oceanic crust. However, the exhumation mechanisms of these once deeply buried HP-UHP rocks are still under discussion. Based on the field occurrences, petrographic features, peak metamorphic P-T conditions and ages of the eclogites/blueschists and their metasedimentary country rocks, a “sediment-type subduction channel” model is advocated in this study to appraise/decipher the formation and evolution of Southwestern Tianshan HP-UHP metamorphic belt. Poly-cyclic metamorphic eclogites record the multistage burial-exhumation cycling manipulated by convective flow in a channel-like interface between the plates, giving robust evidence for the presence of a subduction channel. In addition, this study summarizes some remaining geotectonic problems and research perspectives concerning the Southwestern Tianshan HP-UHP metamorphic belt.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Tectonic earthquakes of October 22, 2005 and March 28, 2013 in the north of the Russian plate

The data from seismic stations of the Arkhangelsk network and the networks in the neighboring territories are analyzed for refining the focal parameters of the tectonic earthquakes recorded in the north of the Russian plate on October 22, 2005 (M = 2.9) and March 28, 2013 (M = 3.4). The epicenters of the earthquakes are confined to the large NW–SE striking faults which border the Arkhangelsk bulge starting from the Kara–Pinega rift in the northeast and Onega–Kandalaksha paleorift in the southwest. The calculated focal mechanism of the earthquake of March 28, 2013 agrees with the distribution of neotectonic stresses characteristic of the north of the Russian plate, and specifically, with the submeridional compression and sublatitudinal extension.     

Study on three independent parameters of focal mechanism solution

In this paper, the relationships of the plunges and azimuths of T and P axes versus the strikes, dips, and rakes of two seismic nodal planes were derived to provide reference for earthquake researchers. The independence of the plunges and azimuths of T, B, and P axes in focal mechanism solution was discussed, and it was concluded that three parameters, i.e., the azimuths of T, B and P axes, are completely independent. The focal mechanism solution representation based on Euler rotation was introduced, using three Euler angles in place of the plunges and azimuths of T, B, and P axes, and three focal mechanism solution representations were briefly compared and analyzed in respect of accuracy on the basis of the assumption of rounding; it was concluded that the Euler angle representation has better accuracy, compared with the azimuth representation and the traditional representation with T, B, and P axes.     

Correlation between foam-bubble size and drag coefficient in hurricane conditions

A recently proposed model of foam impact on the air–sea drag coefficient C _d has been employed for the estimation of the effective foam-bubble radius R _b variation with wind speed U₁₀ in hurricane conditions. The model relates C _d (U₁₀) with the effective roughness length Z _eff (U₁₀) represented as a sum of aerodynamic roughness lengths of the foam-free and foam-covered sea surfaces Z _w (U₁₀) and Z _f (U₁₀) weighted with the foam coverage coefficient α _f (U₁₀). This relation is treated for known phenomenological distributions C _d (U₁₀), Z _w (U₁₀), and α _f (U₁₀) at strong wind speeds as an inverse problem for the effective roughness parameter of foam-covered sea surface Z _f (U₁₀). The present study is aimed at the estimation of the effective roughness of the sea surface assuming that the measurement data for the effective drag coefficient are known. The effective foam-bubble size is found as a function of the wind speed.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of the Local Ionospheric Critical Frequency: A Mid-latitude Single-Station Model for Use in Forecasting

The hourly values of the F-layer critical frequency from the ionospheric sounder in Dourbes (50.1°N, 4.6°E) during the time interval from 1957 to 2010, comprising five solar cycles, were analyzed for the effects of the solar activity. The hourly time series were reduced to hourly monthly medians which in turn were used for fitting a single station foF₂ monthly median model. Two functional approaches have been investigated: a statistical approach and a spectral approach. The solar flux F_10.7 is used to model the dependence of foF₂ on the solar activity and is incorporated into both models by a polynomial expression. The statistical model employs polynomial functions to fit the F-layer critical frequency while the spectral model is based on spectral decomposition of the measured data and offers a better physical interpretation of the fitting parameters. The daytime and nighttime foF₂ values calculated by both approaches are compared during high and low solar activity. In general, the statistical model has a slightly lower uncertainty at the expense of the larger number of fitting parameters. However, the spectral approach is superior for modeling the periodic effects and performs better when comparing the results for high and low solar activity. Comparison with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2012) shows that both local models are better at describing the local values of the F-layer critical frequency.     

Effective Solar Indices for Ionospheric Modeling: A Review and a Proposal for a Real-Time Regional IRI

The first part of this paper reviews methods using effective solar indices to update a background ionospheric model focusing on those employing the Kriging method to perform the spatial interpolation. Then, it proposes a method to update the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model through the assimilation of data collected by a European ionosonde network. The method, called International Reference Ionosphere UPdate (IRI UP), that can potentially operate in real time, is mathematically described and validated for the period 9–25 March 2015 (a time window including the well-known St. Patrick storm occurred on 17 March), using IRI and IRI Real Time Assimilative Model (IRTAM) models as the reference. It relies on foF2 and M(3000)F2 ionospheric characteristics, recorded routinely by a network of 12 European ionosonde stations, which are used to calculate for each station effective values of IRI indices \(IG_{12}\) and \(R_{12}\) (identified as \(IG_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) and \(R_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\)); then, starting from this discrete dataset of values, two-dimensional (2D) maps of \(IG_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) and \(R_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) are generated through the universal Kriging method. Five variogram models are proposed and tested statistically to select the best performer for each effective index. Then, computed maps of \(IG_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) and \(R_{{12{\text{eff}}}}\) are used in the IRI model to synthesize updated values of foF2 and hmF2. To evaluate the ability of the proposed method to reproduce rapid local changes that are common under disturbed conditions, quality metrics are calculated for two test stations whose measurements were not assimilated in IRI UP, Fairford (51.7°N, 1.5°W) and San Vito (40.6°N, 17.8°E), for IRI, IRI UP, and IRTAM models. The proposed method turns out to be very effective under highly disturbed conditions, with significant improvements of the foF2 representation and noticeable improvements of the hmF2 one. Important improvements have been verified also for quiet and moderately disturbed conditions. A visual analysis of foF2 and hmF2 maps highlights the ability of the IRI UP method to catch small-scale changes occurring under disturbed conditions which are not seen by IRI.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

Determination of source parameters of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and Japan from aftershock sequences

Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M _S ) and seismic moment (M _W ) magnitudes are calculated.     

The correlation between the characteristics of seismic wave propagation in Western Caucasus and the geological–tectonic features of the region

The relationship between the characteristics of seismic waves in the Western Caucasus and the geological-tectonic structure of the region is studied for identifying the specificity of seismic propagation in the mountainous regions with a complicated geological structure and forecasting the characteristics of the propagation from the geological and tectonic data. The interpretation is presented for the estimates of the Q-factor of the medium (Q(f) ~ 55f^0.9 in the region of Sochi and Q(f) ~ 90f^0.7 in the region of Anapa), seismic wave enhancement in the upper crustal layers (A(f) ~ 1), and peak ground acceleration residuals, which were previously determined from the records of the local earthquakes and show the distributions of local variations in the parameters of seismic wave radiation and propagation. The obtained characteristics are interpreted in the context of the up-to-date information about the tectonic, geological, and deep structure of the epicentral zones in the Western Caucasus and neighboring territory of the Black Sea. The discrepancies revealed in the low-frequency behavior of the Q-factor in the vicinities of Sochi and Anapa is accounted for by the spatial scale and character of tectonic dislocations of the rocks in these regions. The local variations in the parameters of seismic radiation and propagation are probably related to the geological features of the region such as the fault structures, including the thrusts, shatter zones, oblique seismic boundaries, variations in the thickness and consolidation of the sedimentary cover, as well as the peculiarities in the structure and material composition of the basement.     

Size distribution of the number of lithospheric plates

To describe the cumulative distribution of the number of lithospheric plates over areas S, the dependence N(≥S) ～ S ^?0.33 was proposed by Bird [2003]. Based on dimension considerations, the dependence N(≥S) ～ (?/S)^1/3, where ? is the generation rate of kinetic energy of convection in the mantle estimated at 10^?11 m²/s³, is proposed. The analogy of plate formation with developed hydrodynamic turbulence and other processes involving an energy input into the system and its dissipation is considered. Simple experiments on random partitioning of a surface into polygons gave their cumulative distributions over areas resembling those observed for lithospheric plates. This has led to the conclusion that the plate distribution pattern is characteristic of the random partitioning of surfaces.     

On the possible correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter parameters of the frequency-magnitude relationship

The study of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) parameters a and b has been very important to describe and characterize the seismicity over the different seismic provinces around the world. As far as we know, the possible correlation between the GR parameters a and b has not received enough attention. Bayrak et al. reported the a and b values for 27 active seismic regions around the boundaries of the main tectonic plates of the world. From these data, we found that there exists a positive correlation between the a and b parameters (R =?0.85, R² =?0.72). On the other hand, we made around 150 computer runs of a spring-block model proposed by Olami et al. (Phys Rev Lett 68(8):1244–1247, 1992). This model roughly emulates the interaction between two fault planes and it reaches a self-organized critical state. With these simulations, we also found that the a and b parameters are positively correlated. Motivated by these results, we propose an analytical demonstration that indeed a and b are positively correlated. In addition, we discuss on other possible applications of the spring-block model to actual seismicity and to frictional experiments made with sandpapers.     

Tomographic inversion of near-surface <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> factor by combining surface and cross-hole seismic surveys

The estimation of the quality factor Q plays a fundamental role in enhancing seismic resolution via absorption compensation in the near-surface layer. We present a new geometry that can be used to acquire field data by combining surface and cross-hole surveys to decrease the effect of geophone coupling on Q estimation. In this study, we drilled number of receiver holes around the source hole, each hole has different depth and each geophone is placed geophones into the bottom of each receiver hole to avoid the effect of geophone coupling with the borehole wall on Q estimation in conventional cross-hole seismic surveys. We also propose a novel tomographic inversion of the Q factor without the effect of the source signature, and examine its stability and reliability using synthetic data. We estimate the Q factors of the near-surface layer in two different frequency bands using field data acquired in the Dagang Oilfield. The results show that seismic absorption in the near-surface layer is much greater than that in the subsurface strata. Thus, it is of critical practical importance to enhance the seismic solution by compensating for near-surface absorption. In addition, we derive different Q factors from two frequency bands, which can be treated, to some extent, as evidence of a frequency-dependent Q.