Bayesian assessment of site‐specific performance of geotechnical design charts with unknown model uncertainty

Soil properties are indispensable input parameters in geotechnical design and analysis. In engineering practice, particularly for projects with relatively small or medium sizes, soil properties are often not measured directly, but estimated from geotechnical design charts using results of some commonly used laboratory or in situ tests. For example, effective friction angle ?′ of soil is frequently estimated using standard penetration test (SPT) N values and design charts relating SPT N values to ?′. Note that directly measured ?′ data are generally not available when (and probably why) the use of design charts is needed. Because design charts are usually developed from past observation data, on either empirical or semi‐theoretical basis, uncertainty is unavoidably involved in the design charts. This situation leads to two important questions in engineering practice: 1 how good or reliable are the soil properties estimated in a specific site when using the design charts? (or how to measure the performance of the design charts in a specific site?); and 2 how to incorporate rationally the model uncertainty when estimating soil properties using the design charts? This paper aims to address these two questions by developing a Bayesian statistical approach. In this paper, the second question is firstly addressed (i.e., soil properties are probabilistically characterized by rationally incorporating the model uncertainty in the design chart). Then, based on the characterization results obtained, an index is proposed to evaluate the site‐specific performance of design charts (i.e., to address the first question). Equations are derived for the proposed approach, and the proposed approach is illustrated using both real and simulated SPT data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New Approach to Geochemical Measurement: Estimation of Measurement Uncertainty from Sampling,rather than an Assumption of Representative Sampling

It is argued that the current division between field sampling and chemical analysis is counterproductive in terms of ensuring that geochemical measurement results are fit for their intended purpose. An integrated approach to the whole measurement process has many advantages including no dependence on the two assumptions that either the samples are necessarily representative if taken with a correct protocol, or that the measurement results can be assumed to be true values of chemical concentration. The measurement results then require values of measurement uncertainty, including that from sampling as well as from chemical analysis. This enables the user of the measurement results, rather than the producer, to judge their fitness for a specific purpose. Case studies are used to illustrate the practicality and benefits of this new approach, including the use of measurement results with optimal, but relatively high, levels of uncertainty to make reliable decisions. This contrasts with the traditional assumption that pursuit of the lowest possible measurement uncertainty is the best approach.     

低应变下变阻抗薄壁管桩动力响应频域解析解

管桩低应变完整性检测时,桩顶一点受到瞬态集中荷载的作用,其动力响应问题是一个三维波动问题。基于三维波动理论,建立了任意段变阻抗薄壁管桩动力响应的计算模型和波动方程,结合初边值条件,采用Laplace变换法求得了该波动方程的频域解析解,采用Fourier逆变换求得了时域响应。将计算结果与三维有限元结果进行了对比分析,解析解的计算结果和三维有限元结果较为接近,两者在入射波峰、缺陷反射峰和桩底反射峰处都较为吻合,两种方法位移响应曲线基本相同。给出了桩顶不同点的动力响应,并探讨了高频干扰问题。对变截面桩和变模量桩的动力响应特性进行了分析。     

拟合三参数对数正态分布时第三参数c的优选方法探讨

在地质数据中，许多数据常呈正偏或负偏分布，但并不服从对数或反对娄正态态分布。这时可考虑它们是否服从三参数对数或反对数正态分布。本给出一种估计第三参数ｃ的方法。它可快速、客观、较优地确定此参数，弥补以往凭经验多次选择、反复试算等缺陷，为检验地质数据的统计分布型式，掌握分布规律，从而用于统计预测等提供了方便。     

Reliability-based design of spread footings on clays reinforced with aggregate piers

ABSTRACT

The economical and safe design of footings supported on aggregate-pier-reinforced clay could benefit from the implementation of a reliability-based approach that incorporates the different sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to quantify the probability distribution of the ultimate bearing capacity for practical design scenarios. A reliability analysis is then conducted to propose design charts that yield the required factor of safety as a function of the major input parameters. The novelty in the proposed methodology is the incorporation of a lower bound shear strength that is based on the remoulded undrained shear strength in the reliability analysis.     

三峡水库塌岸影响因素的物理模拟研究

水库蓄水后库岸边坡失稳破坏是一个复杂的过程,其塌岸模式及塌岸规模往往受多种因素的影响。文章在对三峡库区典型塌岸段地质条件调查研究的基础上,利用物理模拟手段,系统地研究了水库岸坡土体材料、岸坡坡角、库水位、降雨强度对岸坡流失量的影响。研究结果表明,三峡水库存在冲磨蚀型及滑移型两种主要的塌岸模式。岸坡土体流失量与岸坡坡角、岸坡物质组成、降雨强度等成正相关关系,且各因素对流失量的影响程度不同,岸坡物质组成及岸坡坡角是主要影响因素。各因素对岸坡流失量的影响还存在临界值,超过此临界值时,该因素对塌岸的影响将变得非常明显。由于物理模拟经历的时间较短,试验所得规律仅适用于水库蓄水后一定时期内塌岸的研究。     

非贯通节理岩体损伤变量计算方法研究

作为岩体组成部分的非贯通节理对岩体力学特性有着重要影响,然而几乎目前所有的岩体损伤变量计算方法都仅考虑节理几何参数对岩体力学特性的影响。对含单组非贯通节理的岩体力学特性进行研究,提出一个能够同时考虑节理几何及强度参数对岩体力学特性影响的新的岩体损伤变量计算方法。首先,采用弹性余能等效假设代替Lemaitre应变等效假设研究由节理引起的岩体各向异性损伤,并基于断裂力学中单个节理引起的附加应变能增量与损伤力学应变能释放量相关联的观点,推导出由单条节理引起的损伤变量计算公式。其次,根据断裂力学理论获得了单轴压缩下单条节理尖端应力强度因子（SIF）KⅠ、KⅡ的计算公式。最后,通过考虑节理间的相互作用给出了单组单排或多排节理尖端应力强度因子KⅠ、KⅡ的计算公式,得到了单组节理引起的岩体损伤变量计算公式,并与已有试验结果的对比分析证明了该公式的合理性。