Impact of a CO2-induced climatic change on river flow variability in three rivers in Belgium

A hydrological conceptual model developed by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium has been run to assess the potential hydrological impacts of an hypothetical doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The simulated scenarios were derived from the predictions of climatic change currently provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs). Three typical drainage basins in Belgium have been selected for assessing their common responses and bringing out possible specific behaviours attributable to catchment characteristics. The study dealt essentially with modifications of the streamflow and with alterations of the flood and low-flow regimes. In catchments with prevailing surface flow the considered change in climate could induce:

• An increase in flood frequencies during the winter season together with a strengthening of the extreme river stages leading to greater flooding risks;
• A decrease in streamflow during the summer season and, as a corollary, increased risks of water pollution;
• Possible restraints, in summer and autumn, on water availability from local groundwater storages.

In catchments with high infiltration rate and with strong aquifer the impact could be:

• An increase in groundwater storage, bringing about an increase in the base flow throughout the year, which in turn involves increased flood risks;
• A reduction of the number of low-stage occurrences in summer, resulting in reduced river pollution;
• A possible increase in water availability from the aquifers.

     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin

Recently, runoff in many river basins in China has been decreasing. Therefore, the role that climate change and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of interest. In this study, we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in river basins. Specifically, we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by humans. The results of this study revealed that the S1MHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly discharge. In addition, we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate change, with average reductions of 70.1% and 29.9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate change, respectively. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.     

基于土地利用动态变化的太湖地区景观生态风险评价

在GIS和RS技术支持下,以遥感数据和土地利用数据为基础,以行政区划为评价单元,定量分析太湖地区1990-2008年土地利用变化及其转化关系;从土地利用变化和景观结构角度构建景观生态风险评价模型,定量评价了研究区内景观生态风险的时空动态变化特征.结果表明:太湖地区景观生态风险分布与区内土地利用方式和强度具有较高关联.景...     

Sensitivity of hydrological variables to climate change in the Haihe River basin,China

Using the defined sensitivity index, the sensitivity of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change was investigated in four catchments in the Haihe River basin. Climate change contained three parts: annual precipitation and temperature change and the change of the percentage of precipitation in the flood season (P_f). With satisfying monthly streamflow simulation using the variable infiltration capacity model, the sensitivity was estimated by the change of simulated hydrological variables with hypothetical climatic scenarios and observed climatic data. The results indicated that (i) the sensitivity of streamflow would increase as precipitation or P_f increased but would decrease as temperature increased; (ii) the sensitivity of evapotranspiration and soil moisture would decrease as precipitation or temperature increased, but it to P_f varied in different catchments; and (iii) hydrological variables were more sensitive to precipitation, followed by P_f, and then temperature. The nonlinear response of streamflow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture to climate change could provide a reference for water resources planning and management under future climate change scenarios in the Haihe River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洞庭湖流域气候变化特征(1961-2003年)

以22个气象站1961-2003年的气象观测数据为基础,对洞庭湖流域的气温、降水和参照蒸散量进行趋势与突变分析．从1970年开始,洞庭湖流域经历了一个缓慢而稳定的增温过程,1990s发生突变进入快速增温时期;尤其是是在春、冬季节,这种突变式的增温特征非常显著;秋季持续而稳定增温,而夏季气温并无明显变化．进入1990s,洞庭湖流域降水有明显增多,尤其是夏季降水突变式增加;与此同时,夏季暴雨频率也突变式增大,但是暴雨强度并无明显变化．1900s迄今,参照蒸散量持续而稳定的减少,夏季减少量尤为显著．全球变暖的区域响应,驱动洞庭湖流域水循环速度加快,夏季降水增多,而蒸发能力减弱,这是1990s洞庭湖流域洪水频发的主要气候因子．     

Flow regime shifts in the Little Piney creek (US)

Non-stationarity of climate drivers and soil-use strongly affects the hydrologic cycle, producing significant inter-annual and multi-decadal fluctuations of river flow regimes. Understanding the temporal trajectories of hydrologic regimes is a key issue for the management of freshwater ecosystems and the security of human water uses. Here, long-term changes in the seasonal flow regime of the Little Piney creek (US) are analyzed with the aid of a stochastic mechanistic approach that expresses analytically the streamflow distribution in terms of a few measurable hydroclimatic parameters, providing a basis for assessing the impact of climate and landscape modifications on water resources. Mean rainfall and streamflow rates exhibit a pronounced inter-annual variability across the last century, though in the absence of clear sustained drifts. Long-term modifications of streamflow regimes across different periods of 2 and 8 years are likewise significant. The stochastic model is able to reasonably reproduce the observed 2-years and 8-years regimes in the Little Piney creek, as well as the corresponding inter-annual variations of streamflow probability density. The study evidences that a flow regime shift occurred in the Little Piney creek during the last century, with erratic regimes typical of the 30s/40s that had been progressively replaced by persistent flow regimes featured by more dumped streamflow fluctuations. Causal drivers of regime shift are identified as the increase of the frequency of events (a byproduct of climate variability) and the decrease of recession rates (induced by a decrease of cultivated lands). The approach developed offers an objective basis for the analysis and prediction of the impact of climate/landscape change on water resources.     

Surface soil moisture retrievals from remote sensing: Current status,products & future trends

Advances in Earth Observation (EO) technology, particularly over the last two decades, have shown that soil moisture content (SMC) can be measured to some degree or other by all regions of the electromagnetic spectrum, and a variety of techniques have been proposed to facilitate this purpose.In this review we provide a synthesis of the efforts made during the last 20 years or so towards the estimation of surface SMC exploiting EO imagery, with a particular emphasis on retrievals from microwave sensors. Rather than replicating previous overview works, we provide a comprehensive and critical exploration of all the major approaches employed for retrieving SMC in a range of different global ecosystems. In this framework, we consider the newest techniques developed within optical and thermal infrared remote sensing, active and passive microwave domains, as well as assimilation or synergistic approaches. Future trends and prospects of EO for the accurate determination of SMC from space are subject to key challenges, some of which are identified and discussed within.It is evident from this review that there is potential for more accurate estimation of SMC exploiting EO technology, particularly so, by exploring the use of synergistic approaches between a variety of EO instruments. Given the importance of SMC in Earth’s land surface interactions and to a large range of applications, one can appreciate that its accurate estimation is critical in addressing key scientific and practical challenges in today’s world such as food security, sustainable planning and management of water resources. The launch of new, more sophisticated satellites strengthens the development of innovative research approaches and scientific inventions that will result in a range of pioneering and ground-breaking advancements in the retrievals of soil moisture from space.     

Modeling the climatic effects of the land use/cover change in eastern China

This study aims to quantify the contribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) during the last three decades to climate change conditions in eastern China. The effects of farmland expansion in Northeast China, grassland degradation in Northwest China, and deforestation in South China were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in addition to the latest actual land cover datasets. The simulated results show that when forestland is converted to farmland, the air temperature decreased owing to an increase in surface albedo in Northeast China. The climatic effect of grassland degradation on the Loess Plateau was insignificant because of the negligible difference in albedo between grassland and cropland. In South China, deforestation generally led to a decrease in temperature. Furthermore, the temperature decrease caused by the increase in albedo counteracted the warming effects of the evapotranspiration decrease, so the summer temperature change was not significant in South China. Excluding the effects of urbanization in the North China Plain, the LUCC effects across the entire region of East China presented an overall cooling trend. However, the variation in temperature scale and magnitude was less in summer than that in winter. This result is due mainly to the cooling caused by the increase in albedo offset partly by the increase in temperature caused by the decrease in evaporation in summer. Summer precipitation showed a trend of increasing–decreasing–increasing from southeast to northwest after LUCC, which was induced mainly by the decrease in surface roughness and cyclone circulations appearing northwest of Northeast China, in the middle of the Loess Plateau, and in Yunnan province at 700 hPa after forests were converted into farmland. All results will be instructive for understanding the influence of LUCC on regional climate and future land planning in practice.     

Influence of agricultural development and climate changes on the drainage valley density of the southern half of the Russian Plain

The southern half of the Russian Plain is characterized by a relatively short history of intensively ploughed lands.The duration varies from approximately three centuries in the southern part of the forest zone to less than one century in some parts of the steppe zone.It was found that after cultivation,on more than 40％ of lands in river basins the drainage valley density (Ddv) decreased by 15-58％ in all landscape zones.In the first stage,the Ddv decrease was mostly associated with increasing surface runoff coefficient after cultivation of virgin lands with proportional decreases in groundwater runoff.In the second stage,usually after reaching areas of arable lands in river basins ＞ 60％,the volume of eroded sediments entering small fiver channels exceeded the transport capacities of the permanent water-courses.As a result,the river channels completely silted.In later stages,the sediment redistribution cascade within the small river basins of the Russian Plain stabilized because of the increasing proportion of sediment eroded from the basin areas and re-deposited before entering the river channels because of the increasing area of sediment sinks due to the increase in dry valley lengths and total areas.The morphological parameters of small valleys and groundwater discharges are the key parameters that affect the intensity of small river aggradation on the regional scale.     

Importance and necessity of integrated river basin management

It is obvious that water resources management has been an important issue in this century under the specified situation of climate change, regional development and population increase. Moreover, the modern life has become vulnerable to water environment effected with climate change. New water-related technologies may create the additional water consumption or drastic water saving. Freshwater withdrawals by human activities have increased dramatically over the years. Already, at the beginning of the 21st century, one-sixth of the world’s population was without access to improved water supply while two-fifths lacked access to improved sanitation. Problems of water resources have also become much discussed issues in international conferences and multi-national organizations.     

Effects of precipitation and landuse on runoff during the past 50 years in a typical watershed in the Loess Plateau, China

In the past century, great progress has been made worldwide in our understanding of forest-water relationship. The successful forestation programs implemented in China-which have improved the ecological environmental conditions-have gained the attention of many researchers and highlighted the relationship between forestation and water yields. The arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau has received attention from water engineers and eco-hydrological researchers in China because of a shortage in water resources. We selected one of the oldest stations conducting soil and water conservation experiments, the Xifeng soil and water conservation station, and chose the Nanxiaohe catchment and its paired catchments （Yangjiagou catchment and Dongzhuanggou catchment） as our research areas. Trends in precipitation, air temperature, streamflow over the past 50 years, and the effect of changing land use on streamflow were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test showed that precipitation had a negative trend （downward trend）, whereas air temperature showed a positive trend （upward trend） from the past to present in the Nanxiaohe catchment. However, the trends seen in precipitation, air temperature did not contain any ＂jumping points.＂ The paired catchment approach is used to detect the effects of land cover change on hydrology in the Yangjiagou and the contrast catchment, i.e., Dongzhuanggou catchment in our study. The results showed a large change in land use in the Yangjiagou catchment from 1954 to 2008. An increase in forested land （from 0% to 40.08% from 1954 to 2008） and a reduction of bare land （from 51.26% to 5.50% from 1954 to 2008） accounted for a large part of the change in land use. However, the land use changed little in the contrast catchment. The comparison of streamfiow in the paired catchments showed that forestation reduced streamflow by 49.63% （or 6.5 mm） each year.     

The impact of land use change on water balance in Zhangye city,China

Land use change has a significant effect on water balance, especially in arid region, such as Northwest China. In this paper, we analyze the effect of land use change on water balance in terms of the amount of water supply and demand from economic perspective. It's the first time to extend the basic 48 sectors input-output table to include water and land accounts that involved into multiple production processes for Zhangye city. We then perform the improved ORANI-G model, a single region Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, to analyze the effect of land use change on water balance under three scenarios. Subsequently, scenario-based simulation results are interpreted through selected sectors from agricultural, industrial, and service sectors respectively. Finally, the effect of land use change on water balance is analyzed through the difference between business-as-usual and land use unchanged scenarios. The results show that the extent of effect on water balance is different among sectors. Specifically, from the perspective of absolute value, service sectors are the largest, followed by industrial sectors, and the agricultural sectors are the least. Conversely, in terms of percentage change of land use, the largest extent of effect occurs in agricultural sectors. Additionally, with the rapid urbanization and the development of social economy, water balance in industrial sectors and service sectors will be stricken and reconstructed to a new high level. Simulation results also show that agricultural land shrinking will mitigate water scarcity distinctly, which indicates that balance the relationship among different stakeholders is imperative to guarantee water transformation from agricultural sectors to industrial and service sectors.     

Land use/land cover change and implications for ecosystems services in the Likangala River Catchment,Malawi

Likangala River catchment in Zomba District of Southern Malawi is important for water resources, agriculture and provides many ecosystem services. Provisioning ecosystem services accrued by the populations within the catchment include water, fish, medicinal plants and timber among others. In spite of its importance, the River catchment is under threat from anthropogenic activities and land use change. This paper studies land uses and land cover change in the catchment and how the changes have impacted on the ecosystem services. Landsat 5 and 8 images (1984, 1994, 2005 and 2013) were used to map land cover change and subsequent inventorying of provisioning ecosystem services. Participatory Geographic Information Systems and Focus group discussions were conducted to identify provisioning ecosystems services that communities benefit from the catchment and indicate these on the map.Post classification comparisons indicate that since 1984, there has been a decline in woodlands from 135.3 km² in 1984 to 15.5 km² in 2013 while urban areas increased from 9.8 km² to 23.8 km² in 2013. Communities indicated that provisioning ecosystems services such as forest products, wild animals and fruits and medicinal plants have been declining over the years. In addition, evidence of catchment degradation through waste disposal, illegal sand mining, deforestation and farming on marginal lands were observed. Population growth, urbanization and demand for agricultural lands have contributed to this land use and land cover change. The study suggests addressing catchment degradation through integrated method where an ecosystems approach is used. Thus, both the proximate and underlying driving factors of land-use and land cover change need to be addressed in order to sustainably reduce ecosystem degradation.     

Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland

Abstract

Discharge in the Warta River in Poland has been analysed based on long series of measurements at the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge station (covering the whole catchment area) and at Poznań (middle and upper catchment area), and the Note? River is characterized by the gauge station at Nowe Drezdenko. The annual mean discharge of the Warta River for the period 1981–2010 was equal to the average value for the last 163 years (209 m³ s^-1), and there was no significant change in comparison with the ratio of runoff in the summer and winter half-years. In the driest region of Poland, the climate has been described on the basis of precipitation and air temperature. The annual mean precipitation for 1981–2010 (544 mm) in the Warta River catchment area was the same as that for the period 1848–2010. The precipitation has been increasing in spring and winter, and decreasing in summer. There is a positive and very significant correlation (r = 0.705) between the annual discharge and annual precipitation totals. The annual mean air temperature has risen by 0.6°C between the periods 1848–1980 and 1981–2010.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Ilnicki, P., Farat, R., Górecki, K., and Lewandowski, P., 2014. Impact of climatic change on river discharge in the driest region of Poland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (6), 1117–1134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.831979     

Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana

Abstract

This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and downscaled climate projections from the ensemble of two global climate models (ECHAM4 and CSIRO) forced by the A1FI greenhouse-gas scenario to estimate the impact of climate change on streamflow in the White Volta and Pra river basins, Ghana. The SWAT model was calibrated for the two basins and subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections to estimate the streamflow for the 2020s (2006–2035) and 2050s (2036–2075). Relative to the baseline, the mean annual streamflow estimated for the White Volta basin for the 2020s and 2050s showed a decrease of 22 and 50%, respectively. Similarly, the estimated streamflow for the 2020s and 2050s for the Pra basin showed a decrease of 22 and 46%, respectively. These results underscore the need to put in place appropriate adaptation measures to foster resilience to climate change in order to enhance water security within the two basins.

Citation Kankam-Yeboah, K., Obuobie, E., Amisigo, B., and Opoku-Ankomah, Y., 2013. Impact of climate change on streamflow in selected river basins in Ghana. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 773–788.     

Spatiotemporal variation of streambed quality and fine sediment deposition in five freshwater pearl mussel streams,in relation to extreme drought,strong rain and snow melt

Oxygenated streambeds are considered a key requirement for the successful recruitment of stream fauna, including highly endangered freshwater pearl mussel Margaritifera margaritifera. Excessive amounts of fines impede exchange between open water and interstitial, leading to colmation and low oxygen levels in the juvenile habitat. Understanding the dynamic relationship between sediment delivery, transport, deposition and remobilization in relation to anthropogenic drivers is still poorly understood, yet is essential for conservation and restoration.This study analysed spatiotemporal sediment dynamics and interstitial habitat quality in five pearl mussel streams at the border region between Bavaria, Saxony and the Czech Republic during 2018 and 2019, comparing extremely dry periods with higher discharge events caused by snow melt and rainfall. Physicochemical habitat conditions within the streambed and sediment deposition were recorded in high spatial resolution along the stream courses, with a particular focus on the effects of tributaries and outflows of man-made fishponds.Habitat conditions were unsuitable for juvenile pearl mussels at the majority of sites, indicated by pronounced differences in physicochemical parameters between open water and the substrate, independent of discharge conditions. Sediment deposition varied markedly between discharge events, in terms of both the quality and quantity of deposits. Snow melt resulted in the highest sedimentation rates, but the smallest proportion of fine particles. During low flow conditions, fine sediment deposition was highly variable, ranging from 0.048 to 4.170 kg/week/m², mostly independent of flow velocity. High spatiotemporal variation was observed within and amongst stream systems, revealing different longitudinal patterns of fine sediment deposition, with catchment land use as the main driver. Temporal variability in sediment deposition was mainly associated with the discharge condition while abiotic parameters varied mainly with season.The high site-specificity of sedimentation rates and substrate conditions in response to different discharge events highlights the importance of an adapted conservation management which considers anthropogenic effects at the local scale.     

River discharge,land use change,and surface water quality in the Xiangjiang River,China

To compare the impacts of river discharge on the surface water quality of the Xiangjiang River in China, 12 surface water quality parameters recorded at 31 sampling sites from January 1998 to December 2008 along the river and its main tributaries were analyzed. Significantly higher concentrations of total nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen, and total phosphorus, and biochemical oxygen demand were observed during low‐flow periods than during high‐flow periods, implying a higher risk to local residents drinking untreated water during low‐flow periods. Pollution indexes, including the inorganic pollution index and integrated pollution index (IPI), were negatively related to impervious surface area (ISA) and cropland area (CLA) when ISA (CLA) was less than 160 (3000) km². However, the relationship was positive when ISA (CLA) was larger than 160 (3000) km², which provided a reasonable explanation for the observed spatial patterns of water quality. Distinct increasing temporal trends for two kinds of pollution indexes were also found. The annual ISA was significantly related to the rapid degradation of water quality from 1998 to 2008, with correlation coefficient (r) values of 0.816 (p = 0.002) and 0.711 (p = 0.014) for the organic pollution index (OPI) and IPI, respectively. However, annual rainfall was negatively correlated with the two indexes with r values of 0.785 (p = 0.002) and 0.448 (p = 0.093) for OPI and IPI, respectively. Our study highlights that decision makers should be more aware of recent increases in the pollution of the Xiangjiang River, especially at downriver sites and during low‐flow periods. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geological risk assessment for the rapid development area of the Erhai Basin

For low-slope hilly land development to have more new land space in a watershed, it is particularly important that to coordinate the sharply increasing conflicts between mountainous and urban land utilization in the city. However, development of low-slope hilly land easily induce potential risks of geologic hazards such as landslide and landslip. It may lead to further environmental losses in a watershed. Hence, it is necessary to study potential risks of geo-hazards in low-slope hilly land development in urban area. Based on GIS spatial analysis technique, we select a study area, Dali City in the Erhai Basin located in watershed belt of Jinsha River, Lancang River and Red River in Yunnan Province of China. Through studying some relevant key indexes and parameters for monitoring potential risks of geo-hazards, we establish a composite index model for zoning the area with potential risks of geo-hazards in development of low-slope hilly land in the study area. Our research findings indicate that the potential risks of geo-hazards in eastern Dali City is relatively low while of that on slow hills with gentle slopes in the western area are relatively high. By using a zoning research method, generated maps show geological information of potential risks of geo-hazards on low-slope hilly land which provide important messages for guarding against natural geo-hazards and potential environmental losses in a watershed.