iTOUGH2反演模型在地下水模拟中的应用

模型参数快速校准是地下水数值模型应用中非常重要和困难的工作,反演模型提高了该工作的效率。在阐述i TOUGH2反演模型流程和TOUGH2/EOS9模块原理的基础上,介绍了i TOUGH2关于敏感性分析、参数估计和不确定性分析的原理。以FEFLOW软件中含三个观测井信息的Breyell抽水试验为例,利用i TOUGH2进行了敏感性分析、参数估计和不确定性分析,发现渗透率和孔隙度为敏感参数,而且通过加权最小二乘法的目标函数和优化算法获得了参数的估计值,最后使用一次二阶矩法和蒙特卡罗法分别进行了不确定性分析。将i TOUGH2反演的参数估计值与FEFLOW反演结果对比,发现两者接近,说明i TOUGH2的反演结果是可靠的。i TOUGH2对应的功能全,包括参数反演,敏感性分析,不确定性分析,可作为地下水模型反演模型的选择之一。     

应用正交试验设计进行数值模型参数的敏感性分析

结合深基坑重力式挡土墙侧向变形的有限元分析 ,提出了采用正交试验设计及其统计分析方法研究数值模拟结果对岩土参数敏感性的步骤。该方法能够区分影响计算结果的主要参数和次要参数 ,并对参数的敏感程度进行量化。实例分析表明 ,模拟结果只对个别参数的变化比较敏感 ,而其它参数对模拟结果影响较小。敏感性分析结果符合工程实践经验 ,表明该方法是可行的。     

基于正交试验法的粗粒土模糊集塑性硬化模型参数的敏感性分析

基于正交试验法, 本文对粗粒土模糊集塑性硬化模型的8个关键模型参数进行敏感性分析。采用美国CASE试验数据库中的试验数据, 以seid sand为例, 通过大量计算, 采用数理统计的相关理论, 获取参数的期望和方差, 经过比较, 对模型的关键参数进行敏感性排序。计算结果表明, 该研究方法可为模糊集塑性硬化模型参数的选取提供必要的参考, 同时也可应用于该模型的二次开发, 以减少其参数反演分析和筛选的工作量。     

基于Sobol'方法的释光热年代模型参数敏感性分析

地温随距地表深度减小而降低。地质体的剥露过程减小了地质体的埋深和温度,因此可通过地质体的温度变化历史重构其剥露过程。地质体中矿物释光信号积累受周围辐射剂量和环境温度的控制,因此可将矿物释光信号作为一种热年代计,通过测量矿物中积累的释光信号反演得到其热历史并推断相关地质过程。释光信号与时间、温度的关系由释光热年代模型所描述,模型中包含特征饱和剂量、环境剂量率、陷阱深度和频率因子等诸多参数,对矿物热历史的准确约束依赖于通过实验方法测定上述参数。实验测量的精度、测量方法的不确定性及样品本身特征对上述参数的测量带来了不确定性,影响了热年代和热历史重建的准确性。不同参数影响程度是否相同？哪些是更加关键的参数？从热年代实践的角度,需要我们获得对各参数影响的先验估计。然而,目前仍然缺乏相关的研究。为了定量评估不同参数的影响,本研究采用基于方差分解思想的Sobol'全局敏感性分析方法,使用现有文献报道的参数可能取值范围,对现有石英和钾长石的释光热年代模型进行参数的全局敏感性分析。考虑到参数敏感性可能受热历史、信号饱和水平影响,本研究比较了不同冷却速率(热历史)下不同冷却年龄(信号饱和水平)条件下的参数敏感性的差异,为有的放矢地对关键参数的测量方法进行优化约束提供了理论依据。

     

基于不同方法的滑坡滑带力学参数敏感性分析

滑坡参数敏感性分析是滑坡机理分析和定量评价的基础。滑坡参数敏感性分析有多种方法,然而采用不同方法所得的分析结果是否一致,目前尚不清楚。本文以具有流变特征的甘肃省舟曲县泄流坡滑坡为例,采用敏感性系数法、敏感度函数法和正交试验法等3种最常用方法分析滑坡位移速率对滑带力学参数的敏感性。对比分析发现,3种方法识别出的最敏感参数均为Maxwell黏度,而滑坡对其他参数的敏感性排序却不尽相同。由于敏感性系数法和敏感度函数法适用于参数较少的情况,所以对于受多个流变力学参数控制的缓慢活动性滑坡,基于正交试验法所得的敏感性分析结果相对更为合理。     

苏北盆地盐城组咸水层CO2 地质封存泄漏风险的全局敏感性分析

      基于对苏北盆地盐城组下段沉积旋回地层概化,建立了一个含有断层的二维剖面模型,采用TOUGH2/ECO2N 程序对 注入到深部咸水层中CO2 的运移分布特征及沿断层的泄漏过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,尽管盐城组下段地层具有3层旋 回结构且砂岩层属高孔高渗储层,但由于泥层厚度较小且渗透率相对较高,多层封盖效果不佳。在存在导通断层时,CO2 泄露风险较大。应用Morris 法以断层中气相CO2 总量作为输出变量,对模型参数进行了全局敏感性分析。研究显示,当仅 改变断层参数时,与毛细压力相关的参数对气相CO2 沿断层泄漏影响程度最高;当考虑系统参数整体变化时则以砂岩含水 层和泥岩的渗透率敏感性最高,其次为与毛细压力相关的参数（进气压力、残余液体饱和度及孔隙分布指数）。两种情形下 孔隙度与盐度的敏感性均很小。     

一维非线性地面沉降模型参数敏感性分析

以孔隙水压力和位移为基本变量的一维非线性地面沉降模型考虑了土体变形的非线性和渗透系数随土体变形的变化,它包含有km、m、k0、e0、n、kur和m′等7个参数。分析计算结果表明,计算的位移和孔隙水压力对参数km、k0和kur的变化非常敏感,而且当土层不均匀时,靠近孔隙水压力变化边界处的土层的渗透性对整个土层中孔隙水压力消散影响显著,而土层的压缩性对其自身的孔隙水压力消散影响显著。结合模型参数的获取方法,建议在有现场孔隙水压力、沉降等实测资料时,可以将km、k0和kur作为反分析参数。     

WEP模型全局参数敏感性分析及其在汉江上游流域的应用

水文模型敏感性分析是用来确定控制模型效率关键参数非常有效的过滤工具之一,并可以帮助理解模型结构,乃至发现模型的结构缺陷,从而有可能改善模型结构.本文通过将全局敏感性分析方法的LH-OAT方法应用到WEP-L模型.并在汉江上游向家坪以上流域进行了成功应用.研究发现.通过LH-OAT方法分析,对于汉江上游向家坪以上流域,河道曼宁糙率和坡面曼宁糙率是影响NaSh效率系数最重要的参数.通过对这两个参数的手动调参,模拟的日Nash效率系数从0.35提高到0.75.     

土壤非饱和导水率模型中参数的敏感性分析

针对邵明安根据再分布过程得出的非饱和导水率模型,对其中参数的敏感性进行分析,通过实测资料计算非饱和导水率对不同参数的敏感度,对比参数对非饱和导水率的影响程度。研究表明采用线性关系表示土壤湿润剖面的平均湿度和湿润锋处湿度之间的关系时,非饱和导水率对参数的敏感性比其他参数高得多。     

基于围岩力学参数概率分布模型的变形敏感性灰关联分析

为了给布伦口-公格尔水电站地下洞室某标段围岩稳定性分析的参数选取提供可靠的理论依据,综合考虑岩体参数的空间变异性,针对常规敏感性分析方法所存在的不足,运用三维离散元计算程序,提出了基于围岩力学参数概率分布模型的变形敏感性灰关联分析方法。该方法以岩体密度?、弹性模量E、泊松比?、黏聚力c、内摩擦角φ及节理内摩擦角φj等6个围岩力学参数作为因素序列,拱顶下沉量作为目标序列,分析影响因素在整个定义区间内的变化对围岩拱顶下沉的敏感程度。结果表明：密度是最敏感因素,其次是弹性模量、黏聚力和泊松比,而内摩擦角以及节理内摩擦角敏感性最小。最后,将常规灰关联敏感性分析与该方法计算结果进行对比,结果表明：除密度、内摩擦角和节理内摩擦角一致外,其余参数敏感性均与结论不一致。因此,文中方法在考虑实际参数概率分布的基础上能够更加准确、合理地对参数进行综合评价。     

Parameter sensitivity of a hydrocarbon biodegradation model under uncertainty of permeability

The effects of permeability variability on uncertainty of the results of a hydrocarbon biodegradation model are addressed. The model includes saturated and unsaturated flow, multi-species transport, heat transport, and bacterial-growth processes. A stochastic approach was used in the uncertainty analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted, taking into consideration the effects of heterogeneity. The Monte Carlo method was used, with permeability as the input stochastic variable. Results showed that uncertainty increases with time. This can lead to difficulties regarding cleanup decision making such as predicting the timeframe to reach an aquifer cleanup goal. It was not possible to replace the heterogeneous system with a homogeneous one through the use of effective parameters that preserve an equivalent behavior of the two systems. Effective permeability is space and time dependent and also depends on values of bioactivity parameters. The study also emphasized the importance of accurately measuring certain bacterial parameters, namely, maximum substrate uptake rate for degradation and cell yield coefficient. Uncertainties regarding nutrient and oxygen uptake and saturation parameters were less important for the current application.

Extension of subset simulation approach for uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis

The subset simulation (SS) method is a probabilistic approach which is devoted to efficiently calculating a small failure probability. Contrary to Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) methodology which is very time-expensive when evaluating a small failure probability, the SS method has the advantage of assessing the small failure probability in a much shorter time. However, this approach does not provide any information about the probability density function (PDF) of the system response. In addition, it does not provide any information about the contribution of each input uncertain parameter in the variability of this response. Finally, the SS approach cannot be used to calculate the partial safety factors which are generally obtained from a reliability analysis. To overcome these shortcomings, the SS approach is combined herein with the Collocation-based Stochastic Response Surface Method (CSRSM) to compute these outputs. This combination is carried out by using the different values of the system response obtained by the SS approach for the determination of the unknown coefficients of the polynomial chaos expansion in CSRSM. An example problem that involves the computation of the ultimate bearing capacity of a strip footing is presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed procedure. The validation of the present method is performed by comparison with MCS methodology applied on the original deterministic model. Finally, a probabilistic parametric study is presented and discussed.     

1984-2016年全球参照冰川物质平衡时空变化特征

基于世界冰川监测服务处（WGMS）发布的冰川物质平衡数据,对全球40条典型参照冰川物质平衡资料进行分析,结果表明：1984年以来,40条冰川中的36条在观测时段内处于物质平衡为负的状态,冰川普遍退缩,尤其在中纬度比较强烈;全球参照冰川物质平衡的多年平均值为-563 mm,累积物质平衡为-18 590 mm,且2000年之后出现了加速消融的变化趋势;全球参照冰川物质平衡的年代际平均值呈阶梯下降,每10年,物质平衡值下降200 mm左右;由于区域气候变化的差异性以及冰川对气候变化的响应程度不同,冰川物质平衡变化表现出显著的区域特征,物质平衡值由北到南出逐渐增大,空间上呈现出典型的纬度地带性和经度地带性特征;气温是控制冰川物质平衡变化的主要因子,物质平衡过程通常与各地区不同时间尺度的气候波动和变化显著相关。     

海南岛西北部海岸线时空变化分析

基于遥感与GIS技术,利用高空间分辨率遥感卫星SPOT-5和GF-2影像数据,对海南岛西北部地区海口市南渡江—东方市2005年和2016年2个时期的海岸线进行人机交互解译,并对其10 a来的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明: 10 a间,海南岛西北部海岸线时空变化显著,主要影响因素为人工开发建设; 人工海岸线增幅达到113%,其占比由2005年的24.3%上升至2016年的51.6%; 除部分淤泥质海岸线和砂质海岸线转化为人工海岸线外,自然海岸线以侵蚀为主,局部地区有少量淤积。不同地区海岸线变化特点不同: 儋州市和澄迈县海岸线资源丰富,开发力度较大; 临高县和昌江黎族自治县自然海岸线以侵蚀为主,淤积少; 东方市和澄迈县海岸线侵蚀较少,较易淤积。分析结果可为海南岛西北部海岸线调查、开发和保护提供一定的科学依据。     

A model for solar quiet day variation at low latitude from past observations using singular spectrum analysis

Singular spectrum isolates significant principal components in a time series from the embedded noise. This tool-kit is used to reconstruct trend-free individual time series, formed by restricting the mean monthly hourly values of geomagnetic field to one hour at a time at a low latitude station Alibag (dipole latitude 9.5°N). Each reconstructed component is extrapolated over the next 12 values using an autoregressive model based on Burg’s maximum entropy algorithm. Details of a numerical approach to increase the reliability of extrapolation are highlighted. The extrapolated reconstructed components are then combined to generate predicted monthly values for each hour. The mean diurnal variation for any month obtained from the extrapolated individual hourly time series compares favorably with the observations. This approach to Sq(H) modelling incorporating both long and short term variations will be beneficial in the derivation of Dst index.     

Modeling 2-D spatial variation in slope reliability analysis using interpolated autocorrelations

This paper deals with slope reliability analysis incorporating two-dimensional spatial variation. Two methods, namely the method of autocorrelated slices and the method of interpolated autocorrelations, are proposed for this purpose. Investigations are carried out based on the limit equilibrium method of slices. First-order-reliability-method (FORM) is coupled with deterministic slope stability analysis using the constrained optimization approach. Systematic search for the probabilistic critical slip surface has been carried out in this study. It is shown that both methods work well in modeling 2-D spatial variation. The results of slope reliability analysis are validated by Monte Carlo simulations. Failure probabilities obtained by FORM agree well with simulation results. It is found that 2-D spatial variation significantly influences the reliability analysis, and that the reliability index is more sensitive to vertical autocorrelation distance than to horizontal autocorrelation distance. Based on this study, failure probability is found significantly overestimated when spatial variation is ignored. Finally, the possible use of the method of interpolated autocorrelations in a probabilistic finite element analysis is suggested.     

海底管线整体屈曲过程中土体水平向阻力模型研究

高温、高压作用下不埋或浅埋的海底管线较易发生水平向整体屈曲,土体对管线的阻力决定了管线的变形形态及变形后的应力状态,因此,确定管线受到的土体阻力对准确地分析管线的整体屈曲有重要意义。开展了基于渤海砂性土体的系列室内模型试验,测定了不同埋深条件下管线受到的土体阻力,建立了随埋深条件而变化的土体动态阻力模型,揭示了埋深对土体阻力峰值和最终稳定值的影响。由于ABAQUS内置的罚函数接触模型无法实现管-土界面的动态摩擦特性,开发了子程序VFRIC,在管线温-压联合作用下的整体屈曲分析中成功引入了建立的土体动态阻力模型,实现了土体阻力大小与管线位移相关的动态接触特性模拟,从而较为真实地反映了管线整体屈曲过程中受到的土体阻力变化过程。研究表明,不同土体阻力模型对管线整体屈曲分析结果影响显著,在动态阻力模型中由于土体阻力存在峰值和衰减过程,因此计算得到的管线整体屈曲临界轴力明显提高,管线屈曲变形更为集中,最大弯矩和应变也相应增大。     

Probabilistic evaluation of tunnel face stability in spatially random soils using sparse polynomial chaos expansion with global sensitivity analysis

The sparse polynomial chaos expansion is employed to perform a probabilistic analysis of the tunnel face stability in the spatially random soils. A shield tunnel under compressed air is considered which implies that the applied pressure is uniformly distributed on the tunnel face. Two sets of failure mechanisms in the context of the limit analysis theory with respect to the frictional and the purely cohesive soils are used to calculate the required face pressure. In the case of the frictional soils, the cohesion and the friction angle are modeled as two anisotropic cross-correlated lognormal random fields; for the purely cohesive soils, the cohesion and the unit weight are modeled as two anisotropic independent lognormal random fields. The influences of the spatial variability and of the cross-correlation between the cohesion and the friction angle on the probability density function of the required face pressure, on the sensitivity index and on the failure probability are discussed. The obtained results show that the spatial variability has an important influence on the probability density function as well as the failure probability, but it has a negligible impact on the Sobol’s index.