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1.
We have used an improved model of the orbit and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) to simulate the performance of asteroid surveys. Our results support general conclusions of previous studies using preliminary Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) orbit and magnitude distributions and suggest that meeting the Spaceguard Goal of 90% completion for Near Earth Objects (NEOs) greater than 1 km diameter by 2008 is impossible given contemporary surveying capabilities.The NEO model was derived from NEO detections by the Spacewatch Project. For this paper we developed a simulator for the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) for which we had a complete pointing history and NEO detection efficiency. The good match between the output of the simulator and the actual CSS performance gives confidence that both the NEO model and simulator are correct. Then, in order to determine if existing surveys can meet the Spaceguard Goal, we developed a simulator to mimic the LINEAR survey, for which detailed performance characteristics were unavailable. This simulator serendipitously provided an estimate for the currently undiscovered population of NEOs upon which we base all our estimates of time to 90% completion. We also developed a set of idealized NEO surveys in order to constrain the best possible survey performance in contrast to more realistic systems.A 100% efficient, all-sky, every night survey, subject only to the constraints of detection above a specified air mass and when the Sun is 18° below the horizon provides a benchmark from which to examine the effect of imposing more restrictions and the efficacy of some simple survey strategies. Such a survey must have a limiting V-magnitude of 20.1 ± 0.2 to meet the Spaceguard Goal.More realistic surveys, limited by latitude, the galaxy, minimum rates of NEO motion, etc., require fainter limiting magnitudes to reach the same completion. Our most realistic simulations, which have been normalized to the performance of the LINEAR detector system’s operation in the period 1999-2000, indicate that it would take them another 33 ± 5 years to reach 90% completeness for the larger asteroids (?1 km diameter). They would need to immediately increase the limiting magnitude to about 24 in order to meet the Spaceguard Goal.The simulations suggest that there may be little need for distributing survey telescopes in longitude and latitude as long as there is sufficient sky coverage from a telescope or network of telescopes which may be geographically close. An idealized space-based survey, especially from a satellite orbit much interior to Earth, would offer an advantage over their terrestrial counterparts. We do not consider a cost-benefit analysis for any of the simulations but suspect that a local-area network of telescopes capable of covering much of the sky in a month to V ∼ 21.5 may be administratively, financially, and scientifically the best compromise for reaching 90% completion of NEOs larger than 1 km diameter.  相似文献   

2.
We show that the new ephemeris-space multiple-address-comparison (eMAC) method solves asteroid linking problems despite large parallaxes by applying the method to astrometric asteroid observation sets obtained nearly simultaneously with the Spitzer space telescope, the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), and European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (VLT). For main-belt asteroids, the parallax between Spitzer and the Earth-based telescopes is approximately one degree which is large as compared to a typical parallax for solely Earth-based telescopes in the arcseconds regime. In the eMAC method, we reduce the initially huge amount of possible linkages between observation sets by comparing samples of ephemerides that have been computed separately for all sets at, say, three common dates. If the non-zero ephemeris probability densities overlap at all common dates, we try to find an orbit solution for these so-called trial linkages. If there exists an orbit which reproduces all the astrometric observations assuming predefined observational errors, we call it a linkage. Known asteroids are independently identified among Spitzer, CFHT, and VLT astrometry, and comparing the identified observations to the linkages found shows that the method found all known correct linkages present in the data. In addition, we also found five previously unpublished linkages between Spitzer astrometry and Earth-based astrometry. Based on our simulations, we found virtually all Spitzer-related linkages between two single-night observation sets, and more than 99.4% of linkages between two single-night observation sets obtained by Earth-based observatories. Virtually all correct linkages consisting of at least three single-night sets were also detected. The results show that large-parallax discovery observations made from a spacecraft can be linked to Earth-based follow-up observations to ensure that the objects are not lost. Furthermore, we compute the heliocentric and Spitzer-centric distances as well as the corresponding solar phase angles at the dates of Spitzer observations. Based on comparisons to simulated geocentric observations, we also show that, for typical nearly-simultaneous observations, the parallax reduces the distance uncertainties by several orders of magnitude.  相似文献   

3.
近地小行星是一类可能对地球安全造成潜在威胁的太阳系小天体, 目前绝大部分的近地小行星是由地基望远镜发现的, 且数目仍在不断增加. 为了对我国未来开展近地小行星发现监测提供参考和借鉴, 利用国际小行星中心公开的数据库对所有近地小行星首次发现时刻的观测资料开展了多维度统计分析. 发现望远镜探测能力的限制会对近地小行星的发现造成选择效应, 导致不同轨道类型近地小行星发现的相对比例逐年变化且与直径有关. 另外, 结合数值模拟获得的轨道数据, 对近地小行星首次发现时的观测场景进行了还原, 获得了发现时刻近地小行星位置在不同天球坐标系的分布, 分析了其分布特征与季节、测站纬度和小行星直径的依赖关系. 最后, 通过分析数据定量考察了太阳、月球和银道面对近地小行星发现的影响, 发现地基望远镜一般难以发现来自太阳方向90$^\circ$范围内直径140m以下的近地小行星, 并且随着小行星直径的减小该限制范围也将变大; 月光污染对近地小行星发现的影响也非常显著, 望月前后几天的观测限制可导致约29%的目标无法被发现, 而且分析表明农历上半月发现的目标一般比下半月发现的更难以被跟踪观测; 银道面特别是银心方向会对近地小行星发现产生影响, 使得黄道面附近存在与季节相关的观测``盲区''.  相似文献   

4.
We consider a network of telescopes capable of scanning all the observable sky each night and targeting Near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the size range of the Tunguska-like asteroids, from 160 m down to 10 m. We measure the performance of this telescope network in terms of the time needed to discover at least 50% of the impactors in the considered population with a warning time large enough to undertake proper mitigation actions. The warning times are described by a trimodal distribution and the telescope network has a 50% probability of discovering an impactor of the Tunguska class with at least one week of advance already in the first 10 yr of operations of the survey. These results suggest that the studied survey would be a significant addition to the current NEO discovery efforts.  相似文献   

5.
田伟 《天文学报》2021,62(2):16-62
作为一颗与地球共轨道的小行星,(469219)Kamo'oalewa是一个具有很高研究价值的近地小天体,也是中国首次小行星探测计划的目标天体之一.针对其轨道特性,建立了兼顾太阳、地球和月球非球形引力作用的小行星动力学模型.并在该模型的基础上,利用国际小行星中心(Minor Planet Center,MPC)提供的2004|2018年间的光学观测数据对该小行星的轨道进行确定.拟合后观测残差的均方根误差约为0:2″(与美国喷气推进实验室的Horizons在线历表系统相当),其中2004年期间数据的观测残差有所改进.最后,对小行星(469219)Kamo'oalewa的轨道误差进行了详细分析,并预报了2020-2025年期间该小行星的轨道误差.  相似文献   

6.
C.L Dandy  A Fitzsimmons 《Icarus》2003,163(2):363-373
We present the results of BVRIZ photometry of 56 near-Earth objects (NEOs) obtained with the 1-m Jacobus Kapteyn telescope on La Palma during 2000 and 2001. Our sample includes many NEOs with particularly deep 1-μm pyroxene/olivine absorption bands, similar to Q-type asteroids. We also classify three NEOs with particularly blue colors. No D-type asteroids were found, placing an upper limit of ∼2% on the fraction of the NEO population originating in the outer main belt or the Trojan clouds. The ratio of dark to bright objects in our sample was found to be 0.40, significantly higher than current theoretical predictions. As well as classifying the NEOs, we have investigated color trends with size and orbit. We see a general trend for larger silicate objects to have shallower absorption bands but find no significant difference in the distribution of taxonomic classes at small and large sizes. Our data clearly show that different taxonomic classes tend to occupy different regions of (a, e) space. By comparing our data with current model predictions for NEO dynamical evolution we see that Q-, R-, and V-type NEOs tend to have orbits associated with “fast track” delivery from the main belt, whereas S-type NEOs tend to have orbits associated with “slow track” delivery. This outcome would be expected if space weathering occurs on time scales of >106 years.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract— Near‐Earth object (NEO) research plays an increasingly important role not only in solar system science but also in protecting our planetary environment as well as human society from the asteroid and comet hazard. Consequently, interest in detecting, tracking, cataloguing, and the physical characterizing of these bodies has steadily grown. The discovery rate of current NEO surveys reflects progressive improvement in a number of technical areas. An integral part of NEO discovery is astrometric follow‐up crucial for precise orbit computation and for the reasonable judging of future close encounters with the Earth, including possible impact solutions. The KLENOT Project of the Klet Observatory (South Bohemia, Czech Republic) is aimed especially at the confirmation, early follow‐up, long‐arc follow‐up, and recovery of near‐Earth objects. It ranks among the world's most prolific professional NEO follow‐up programs. The 1.06 m KLENOT telescope, put into regular operation in 2002, is the largest telescope in Europe used exclusively for observations of minor planets and comets, and full observing time is dedicated to the KLENOT team. In this paper, we present the equipment, technology, software, observing strategy, and results of the KLENOT Project obtained during its first phase from March 2002 to September 2008. The results consist of thousands of precise astrometric measurements of NEOs and also three newly discovered near‐Earth asteroids. Finally, we also discuss future plans reflecting also the role of astrometric follow‐up in connection with the modus operandi of the next generation surveys.  相似文献   

8.
Near-Earth asteroids have attracted attention for both scientific and commercial mission applications. Due to the fact that the Earth–Moon \(\hbox {L}_{1}\) and \(\hbox {L}_{2}\) points are candidates for gateway stations for lunar exploration, and an ideal location for space science, capturing asteroids and inserting them into periodic orbits around these points is of significant interest for the future. In this paper, we define a new type of lunar asteroid capture, termed direct capture. In this capture strategy, the candidate asteroid leaves its heliocentric orbit after an initial impulse, with its dynamics modeled using the Sun–Earth–Moon restricted four-body problem until its insertion, with a second impulse, onto the \(\hbox {L}_{2}\) stable manifold in the Earth–Moon circular restricted three-body problem. A Lambert arc in the Sun-asteroid two-body problem is used as an initial guess and a differential corrector used to generate the transfer trajectory from the asteroid’s initial obit to the stable manifold associated with Earth–Moon \(\hbox {L}_{2}\) point. Results show that the direct asteroid capture strategy needs a shorter flight time compared to an indirect asteroid capture, which couples capture in the Sun–Earth circular restricted three-body problem and subsequent transfer to the Earth–Moon circular restricted three-body problem. Finally, the direct and indirect asteroid capture strategies are also applied to consider capture of asteroids at the triangular libration points in the Earth–Moon system.  相似文献   

9.
The Campo Imperatore Near Earth Object Survey (CINEOS) is an Italian survey dedicated to the search and follow-up of Near Earth Objects (NEOs). It is operated with the 90 cm f/3 Schmidt telescope at the Campo Imperatore of the Rome Astronomical Observatory (INAF-OAR) as a joint project with the Istituto di Astrofisica Spaziale and Fisica Cosmica (INAF-IASF) in Rome. Since the end of 2001 CINEOS has covered about 4,250 sq. deg to 20th magnitude in the course of about 160 nights. This effort led to the discovery of 7 Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), 1 comet (167P/CINEOS; a member of the Centaur group) and a few other unusual objects including 2004 XH50 with a unique comet-like orbit. CINEOS has also contributed almost 2,200 preliminary designations and over 30,000 detections to the Minor Planet Center. About 20% of the survey effort was carried out at low solar elongations (LSE), although no object with an orbit interior (Inner Earth Objects, IEO class) or nearly interior to the Earth (Aten class) was found. The work at LSE was, however, very important to test survey strategies implemented with larger telescopes. We also provide the results of a CINEOS simulation on a reliable NEO population model based on the results of two larger scale surveys, Spacewatch and LINEAR.  相似文献   

10.
Among 11 673 of near-Earth objects (NEOs), 52 asteroids are identified, which, together with the Eccentrids meteor system, comprise a single population of small bodies of the Solar System with the smallest orbits of high eccentricity. Some features of this unique system of bodies are discussed in this paper. The distribution of perihelion longitudes is studied for the given group of asteroids and compared to that of the Aten asteroids, which are the most similar to the Eccentrids. The dependence is obtained of the character of perihelion longitude distribution on the eccentricities of the NEO orbits. Eight asteroid stream of the Eccentrids are found. The Eccentrids asteroids approaching the Earth’s orbit along its whole length in their aphelia can pose a certain hazard for the Earth.  相似文献   

11.
The near-Earth objects and their potential threat to our planet   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The near-Earth object (NEO) population includes both asteroids (NEAs) and comet nuclei (NECs) whose orbits have perihelion distances q<1.3 AU and which can approach or cross that of the Earth. A NEA is defined as a “potentially hazardous asteroid” (PHA) for Earth when its minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) comes inside 0.05 AU and it has an absolute magnitude H<22 mag (i.e. mean diameter > 140 m). These are big enough to cause, in the case of impact with Earth, destructive effects on a regional scale. Smaller objects can still produce major damage on a local scale, while the largest NEOs could endanger the survival of living species. Therefore, several national and international observational efforts have been started (i) to detect undiscovered NEOs and especially PHAs, (ii) to determine and continuously monitor their orbital properties and hence their impact probability, and (iii) to investigate their physical nature. Further ongoing activities concern the analysis of possible techniques to mitigate the risk of a NEO impact, when an object is confirmed to be on an Earth colliding trajectory. Depending on the timeframe available before the collision, as well as on the object’s physical properties, various methods to deflect a NEO have been proposed and are currently under study from groups of experts on behalf of international organizations and space agencies. This paper will review our current understanding of the NEO population, the scientific aspects and the ongoing space- and ground-based activities to foresee close encounters and to mitigate the effects of possible impacts.  相似文献   

12.
Near‐Earth objects (NEOs) with diameters of <300 m are difficult to detect from the Earth with radar or optical telescopes unless and until they approach closely. If they are on collisional courses with the Earth, there is little that can be done to mitigate the considerable damage. Although destructive collisions in space are rare for 1 km diameter bodies and above, once hit by a sizeable impactor, such a NEO can develop a relatively dense cloud of co‐orbiting material in which destructive collisions are relatively frequent. The gas and nanoscale dust released in the destructive collisions can be detected remotely by downstream spacecraft equipped with magnetometers. In this paper, we use such magnetic disturbances to identify regions of near‐Earth space in which high densities of small objects are present. We find that asteroid (138175) 2000EE104 currently may have a cloud of potentially threatening co‐orbiting material. Due to the scattered co‐orbitals, there can be a finite impact probability whenever the Earth approaches the orbit of asteroid 2000EE104, regardless of the position of the asteroid itself.  相似文献   

13.
Asteroids and comets are of strategic importance for science in an effort to understand the formation, evolution and composition of the Solar System. Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are of particular interest because of their accessibility from Earth, but also because of their speculated wealth of material resources. The exploitation of these resources has long been discussed as a means to lower the cost of future space endeavours. In this paper, we consider the currently known NEO population and define a family of so-called Easily Retrievable Objects (EROs), objects that can be transported from accessible heliocentric orbits into the Earth’s neighbourhood at affordable costs. The asteroid retrieval transfers are sought from the continuum of low energy transfers enabled by the dynamics of invariant manifolds; specifically, the retrieval transfers target planar, vertical Lyapunov and halo orbit families associated with the collinear equilibrium points of the Sun–Earth Circular Restricted Three Body problem. The judicious use of these dynamical features provides the best opportunity to find extremely low energy Earth transfers for asteroid material. A catalogue of asteroid retrieval candidates is then presented. Despite the highly incomplete census of very small asteroids, the ERO catalogue can already be populated with 12 different objects retrievable with less than 500 m/s of $\Delta v$ Δ v . Moreover, the approach proposed represents a robust search and ranking methodology for future retrieval candidates that can be automatically applied to the growing survey of NEOs.  相似文献   

14.
We investigate the possibility of detectable meteor shower activity in the atmosphere of Venus. We compare the Venus-approaching population of known periodic comets, suspected cometary asteroids and meteor streams with that of the Earth. We find that a similar number of Halley-type comets but a substantially lesser population of Jupiter family comets approach Venus. Parent bodies of prominent meteor showers that might occur at Venus have been determined based on minimum orbital distance. These are: Comets 1P/Halley, parent of the η Aquarid and Orionid streams at the Earth; 45P/Honda-Mrkos-Pajdusakova which currently approaches the venusian orbit to 0.0016 AU; three Halley-type comets (12P/Pons-Brooks, 27P/Crommelin and 122P/de Vico), all intercepting the planet's orbit within a 5-day arc in solar longitude; and Asteroid (3200) Phaethon, parent of the December Geminids at the Earth. In addition, several minor streams and a number of cometary asteroid orbits are found to approach the orbit of Venus sufficiently close to raise the possibility of some activity at that planet. Using an analytical approach described in Adolfsson et al. (Icarus 119 (1996) 144) we show that venusian meteors would be as bright or up to 2 magnitudes brighter than their Earth counterparts and reach maximum luminosity at an altitude range of 100-120, 20-30 km higher than at the Earth, in a predominantly clear region of the atmosphere. We discuss the feasibility of observing venusian showers based on current capabilities and conclude that a downward-looking Venus-orbiting meteor detector would be more suitable for these purposes than Earth-based monitoring. The former would detect a shower of an equivalent Zenithal Hourly Rate of at least several tens of meteors.  相似文献   

15.
The orbit of the Chelyabinsk object is calculated, applying the least‐squares method directly to astrometric positions. The dynamical evolution of this object in the past is studied by integrating equations of motion for particles with orbits from the confidence region. It is found that the majority of the Chelyabinsk clones reach the near‐Sun state. Sixty‐seven percent of these objects have collisions with the Sun for 15 Myr in our numerical simulations. The distribution of minimum solar distances shows that the most probable time for the encounters of the Chelyabinsk object with the Sun lies in the interval from ?0.8 Myr to ?2 Myr. This is consistent with the estimate of a cosmic ray exposure age of 1.2 Myr (Popova et al. 2013). A parent body of the Chelyabinsk object should experience strong tidal and thermal effects at this time. The possible association of the Chelyabinsk object with 86039 (1999 NC43) and 2008 DJ is discussed.  相似文献   

16.
Some detailed astronomical and applied aspects deflection of hazardous near-Earth objects (NEO) by direct high concentrated sunlight, causing intensive local ablation of their surfaces, are considered. The major requirements to solar concentrating optics within a single collector (a large mirror) approach, along with the asteroid properties being most substantial in achieving the predetermined effect for the period less than a year (mid-thrust action), are discussed. Such a hastened strategy may become topical in the case of late detection of potential danger, and also, if required, in providing the possibility for some additional action. It is also more acceptable in the public perception and keeping the peace for mankind rather than a long-run expectation of the incorrigible deflection resulting shortly ahead of the predicted hazard. The conventional concave reflectors have been graved to be practically inapplicable within the high concentrating geometry. This is primarily because of the dramatic spread of their focal spots at needful inclinations of optical axis from the direction toward the Sun, as well as of problematic use of the secondary optics. An alternative design of a mirrored ring-array collector is presented (as a tested and approved point-focus version of innovative reflective lenses for sunlight concentration within this approach), and comparative analysis was made. The assessment argues in favor of such a type of high-aperture optics having more capabilities than conventional devices. Mainly, this is because of the underside position (as respects the entrance aperture) of its focal area that allows avoidance of target shadowing the reflecting surfaces and minimizes their coating by the ejected debris. By using the modern asteroids database, some key estimations have been obtained. The surface irradiance around 4–5 MW/m2 (average across the focal spot concentration level ~5 × 103) for the ring-array collector size ~0.5 of asteroid diameter might suffice to deflect a 0.5-km-diameter NEO during several months. For the larger diameter NEOs, to 1.3–2.2 km, the required collector sizes are about the asteroid diameters, and they are even greater for more massive objects.  相似文献   

17.
We have performed a simulation of a next generation sky survey’s (Pan-STARRS 1) efficiency for detecting Earth-impacting asteroids. The steady-state sky-plane distribution of the impactors long before impact is concentrated towards small solar elongations (Chesley, S.R., Spahr T.B., 2004. In: Belton, M.J.S., Morgan, T.H., Samarashinha, N.H., Yeomans, D.K. (Eds.), Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 22-37) but we find that there is interesting and potentially exploitable behavior in the sky-plane distribution in the months leading up to impact. The next generation surveys will find most of the dangerous impactors (>140 m diameter) during their decade-long survey missions though there is the potential to miss difficult objects with long synodic periods appearing in the direction of the Sun, as well as objects with long orbital periods that spend much of their time far from the Sun and Earth. A space-based platform that can observe close to the Sun may be needed to identify many of the potential impactors that spend much of their time interior to the Earth’s orbit. The next generation surveys have a good chance of imaging a bolide like 2008 TC3 before it enters the atmosphere but the difficulty will lie in obtaining enough images in advance of impact to allow an accurate pre-impact orbit to be computed.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract— We have examined the fate of impact ejecta liberated from the surface of Mercury due to impacts by comets or asteroids, in order to study 1) meteorite transfer to Earth, and 2) reaccumulation of an expelled mantle in giant‐impact scenarios seeking to explain Mercury's large core. In the context of meteorite transfer during the last 30 Myr, we note that Mercury's impact ejecta leave the planet's surface much faster (on average) than other planets in the solar system because it is the only planet where impact speeds routinely range from 5 to 20 times the planet's escape speed; this causes impact ejecta to leave its surface moving many times faster than needed to escape its gravitational pull. Thus, a large fraction of Mercurian ejecta may reach heliocentric orbit with speeds sufficiently high for Earth‐crossing orbits to exist immediately after impact, resulting in larger fractions of the ejecta reaching Earth as meteorites. We calculate the delivery rate to Earth on a time scale of 30 Myr (typical of stony meteorites from the asteroid belt) and show that several percent of the high‐speed ejecta reach Earth (a factor of 2–3 less than typical launches from Mars); this is one to two orders of magnitude more efficient than previous estimates. Similar quantities of material reach Venus. These calculations also yield measurements of the re‐accretion time scale of material ejected from Mercury in a putative giant impact (assuming gravity is dominant). For Mercurian ejecta escaping the gravitational reach of the planet with excess speeds equal to Mercury's escape speed, about one third of ejecta reaccretes in as little as 2 Myr. Thus collisional stripping of a silicate proto‐Mercurian mantle can only work effectively if the liberated mantle material remains in small enough particles that radiation forces can drag them into the Sun on time scale of a few million years, or Mercury would simply re‐accrete the material.  相似文献   

19.
Space-based observatories have several advantages over ground-based observatories in searching for asteroids and comets. In particular, the Aten and Interior to Earth’s Orbit (IEO) asteroid classes may be efficiently sought at low solar elongations along the ecliptic plane. A telescope in low Earth orbit has a sufficiently long orbital baseline to determine the parallax for all Aten and IEO class asteroids discovered with this observing strategy. The Near Earth Object Space Surveillance Satellite (NEOSSat) mission will launch a microsatellite to exploit this observing strategy complementing ground-based search programmes.  相似文献   

20.
J. TicháM. Tichý  M. Ko?er 《Icarus》2002,159(2):351-357
The number of known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) has increased rapidly in recent years due to large surveys. This discovery process has to be followed by follow-up observations to obtain a sufficient number of precise astrometric data needed for an accurate orbit determination of newly discovered bodies.Accurate orbit determination requires observations from at least two oppositions. If asteroids are not found in the next apparition, different from the discovery apparition, then they can be considered lost. This is particularly embarrassing for NEAs. If data for different apparitions are not found in the course of precovery surveys or in other archive data, then it is necessary to prepare targeted observations of a particular NEA in the second convenient apparition. Therefore NEA recovery is a very important part of NEA follow-up.We discuss here methods, techniques, and results of planned recoveries at the Klet' Observatory using a 0.57-m telescope equipped with a CCD detector. The Klet' NEA recovery subprogram has brought 21 planned NEA recoveries since 1997, including seven NEAs belonging to the potentially hazardous asteroid category.We briefly mention the overall work on NEA recoveries provided by several NEO follow-up programs as well as the need for communication resources supporting astrometric observers. Finally we present here a planned extension of the Klet' NEA recovery subprogram to fainter objects by means of a new 1.06-m reflector.  相似文献   

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