Application of the dynamic bounds method in the safety assessment of flood defences,a case study: 17th Street flood wall,New Orleans

In this paper we provide a computational framework for evaluation of reliability and safety assessment of infrastructures. It is based on the combined application of the dynamic bounds (DB) method and a probabilistic finite element model (FEM). The DB improves the computational efficiency of the FEM when calculating time-dependent failure analyses of coastal and offshore structures, and can speed up the simulation process by several orders of magnitude.

Our approach is demonstrated here for an example problem, and shown to be the most efficient method in applications with a limited number of influential variables, which is true for geotechnical and coastal flood defence systems. It is applied to the 17th Street flood wall, a failing component of the flood defence system in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. The variation in soil parameters is a critical input in the reliability estimation of this structure, and the calculated probability of failure depends on these assumed values.     

Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods

Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide. In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated. The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation and worry are not correlated.     

Implementing a trans-boundary flood risk management plan: a method for determining willingness to cooperate and case study for the Scheldt estuary

In this paper, I applied statistical, econometric, and mathematical methodologies to evaluate the conditions required for implementing a publicly supported trans-boundary flood risk management plan in accordance with the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EU). Although this paper adopts a focus on the methodology rather than on solving a specific problem, the Scheldt estuary is used to provide an illustrative case study of this approach. I showed that, apart from some expected minor differences, the Belgians and the Dutch can be considered a relatively homogeneous population. Moreover, I estimated the main determinants of both perceived flood risk (PFR) and willingness to pay (WTP) for a compensation fund by using a linear model and an ordered probit model (based on a double-bounded dichotomous-choice approach), respectively. Some policies appear to be potentially effective: a campaign to inform the general public about evacuation and trauma management could increase WTP by 19 and 21 %, respectively; an information campaign focused on young women could reduce PFR; and a campaign to inform the general public about flood strategies and the need to disregard flood events in the press could reduce PFR by 56 and 54 %, respectively. Finally, I showed that, apart from some expected differences between the values at risk in Belgium and the Netherlands, both individual rationality and overall feasibility conditions are met. Thus, if information campaigns and other measures are designed to account for differences between the Belgians and the Dutch, a publicly supported trans-boundary flood risk management plan can be successfully implemented.     

Public attention to the great smog event: a case study of the 2013 smog event in Harbin,China

Natural Hazards - The 2013 outbreak of smog in China triggered unprecedented public attention in the country, which played a critical role in crisis communication and management. This study...     

From flood control to flood adaptation: a case study on the Lower Green River Valley and the City of Kent in King County,Washington

Despite massive investment in flood control infrastructure (FCI), neither cities nor rivers have been well served—flooding continues to challenge cities around the world, while riverine ecosystems are degraded by FCI. Although new flood hazard management concepts have shifted the focus away from FCI, many cities continue to count on FCI to prevent flood damage. It is assumed that existing built-up areas can only count on FCI, as large-scale retreat is often impossible. However, flood adaptation—retrofitting the built environment to prevent damage during flooding—as an option is often ignored. This paper argues against the continual use of FCI to prevent flood damage by reviewing FCI’s established problems. The paper examines human–river interactions associated with FCI, focusing on the feedback mechanisms in the interactions, with a case study on the Lower Green River (LGR) valley in King County, Washington, USA. An urban ecology research model is employed to organize the case study, where interactions between floodplain urbanization, FCI, flow and sediment changes, flood risk, and riverine ecosystem are explored and two feedback mechanisms—river adjustment and flood risk perception—are explicitly addressed. The resulting complex dynamics, in terms of cross–scale interactions, emergence, nonlinearity, and surprises, are synthesized and limitations of FCI outlined. Flood adaptation is explored as a plausible alternative to flood control to nurture flood resilience. A management scenario of flood adaptation for the City of Kent—the largest municipality in the LGR valley—is developed to discuss the implications of flood adaptation on flood risk and river restoration.     

Assessing flood hazard using flood marks and analytic hierarchy process approach: a case study for the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam,Vietnam

The production of flood hazard assessment maps is an important component of flood risk assessment. This study analyses flood hazard using flood mark data. The chosen case study is the 2013 flood event in Quang Nam, Vietnam. The impacts of this event included 17 deaths, 230 injuries, 91,739 flooded properties, 11,530 ha of submerged and damaged agricultural land, 85,080 animals killed and widespread damage to roads, canals, dykes and embankments. The flood mark data include flood depth and flood duration. Analytic hierarchy process method is used to assess the criteria and sub-criteria of the flood hazard. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria are generated based on the judgements of decision-makers using this method. This assessment is combined into a single map using weighted linear combination, integrated with GIS to produce a flood hazard map. Previous research has usually not considered flood duration in flood hazard assessment maps. This factor has a rather strong influence on the livelihood of local communities in Quang Nam, with most agricultural land within the floodplain. A more comprehensive flood hazard assessment mapping process, with the additional consideration of flood duration, can make a significant contribution to flood risk management activities in Vietnam.     

Highways protection from flood hazards,a case study: New Tama road,KSA

Natural Hazards - Highways in arid regions are highly exposed to damage by floods. This requires intensive analysis of flood quantity, time and direction that can be used to design the suitable...     

GIS-based flood risk assessment in suburban areas: a case study of the Fangshan District,Beijing

Suburban areas have become rapid development zones during China’s current urbanization. Generally, these areas are also regional precipitation centers that are prone to flood disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the flood risk in suburban areas. In this study, flood risk was defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability based on disaster risk theory. A risk assessment index system was established, and the analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the index weight. The Fangshan District in Beijing, China, which is an example of a typical suburban area undergoing rapid urbanization, was selected for this study. Six factors were considered in relation to hazard, and three factors were considered for vulnerability. Each indicator was discretized, standardized, weighted, and then combined to obtain the final flood risk map in a geographical information system environment. The results showed that the high and very high risk zones in the Fangshan District were primarily concentrated on Yingfeng Street, Xingcheng Street, Xincheng Street, and Chengguanzhen Street. The comparison to an actual flood disaster suggested that the method was effective and practical. The method can quantitatively reflect the relative magnitude and spatial distribution patterns of flood risk in a region. The method can be applied easily to most suburban areas in China for land use planning and flood risk management.     

Location model analysis of flood relief facilities: a case study of the Fazih River floodplain,Taiwan

The continuously low efficiencies of flood relief service in responding to flooding disasters in Taiwan highlight a need for research. This service efficiency is negatively influenced by flood relief facility locations and their operational management structure. The Fazih River floodplain has been previously identified as a high-flood-risk area using an analytic hierarchy process. The purpose of this study is to use the location set covering problem and the maximal covering location problem to determine the number of relief facilities required and the maximum covering area of each facility for the case study area of the Fazih River floodplain. The findings showed that covering distances range from 3.0 to 6.6 km and the number of facilities required for improved service efficiency is between 1 and 4.

     

Application of bivariate extreme value distribution to flood frequency analysis: a case study of Northwestern Mexico

In Mexico, poverty has forced people to live almost on the water of rivers. This situation along with the occurrence of floods is a serious problem for the local governments. In order to protect their lives and goods, it is very important to account with a mathematical tool that may reduce the uncertainties in computing the design events for different return periods. In this paper, the Logistic model for bivariate extreme value distribution with Weibull-2 and Mixed Weibull marginals is proposed for the case of flood frequency analysis. A procedure to estimate their parameters based on the maximum likelihood method is developed. A region in Northwestern Mexico with 16 gauging stations has been selected to apply the model and regional at-site quantiles were estimated. A significant improvement occurs, measured through the use of a goodness-of-fit test, when parameters are estimated using the bivariate distribution instead of its univariate counterpart. Results suggest that it is very important to consider the Mixed Weibull distribution and its bivariate option when analyzing floods generated by a␣mixture of two populations.     

Multidimensional six-stage model for flood emergency response in schools: a case study of Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Children spend more than two-thirds of their total daytime in schools and becoming more persuasive in shielding them from potential hazards. Schools have a responsibility to...     

An oversampling technique for the multiscale finite volume method to simulate electromagnetic responses in the frequency domain

In order to reduce the computational cost of the simulation of electromagnetic responses in geophysical settings that involve highly heterogeneous media, we develop a multiscale finite volume method with oversampling for the quasi-static Maxwell’s equations in the frequency domain. We assume a coarse mesh nested within a fine mesh that accurately discretizes the problem. For each coarse cell, we independently solve a local version of the original Maxwell’s system subject to linear boundary conditions on an extended domain, which includes the coarse cell and a neighborhood of fine cells around it. The local Maxwell’s system is solved using the fine mesh contained in the extended domain and the mimetic finite volume method. Next, these local solutions (basis functions) together with a weak-continuity condition are used to construct a coarse-mesh version of the global problem. The basis functions can be used to obtain the fine-mesh details from the solution of the coarse-mesh problem. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the size of the final system of equations and the computational time, while accurately approximating the behavior of the fine-mesh solutions. We demonstrate the performance of our method using two 3D synthetic models: one with a mineral deposit in a geologically complex medium and one with random isotropic heterogeneous media. Both models are discretized using an adaptive mesh refinement technique.     

Determination of rainfall data for direct runoff prediction in monsoon region: a case study in the Upper Yom basin,Thailand

Natural Hazards - In a monsoon region, flooding is usually caused by heavy rainfall events in conjunction with saturated soil. A hydrograph in the wet season consists of multiple flood waves from...     

High effectiveness of GRACE data in daily-scale flood modeling: case study in the Xijiang River Basin,China

Natural Hazards - The U.S. 2020 hurricane season was extraordinary because of a record number of named storms coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study draws lessons on how individual...