A model for the generation of simultaneous daily discharges of two rivers at their point of confluence

A geomorphological study at the confluence of the Danube and the Isar in Bavaria required long series of daily discharges in both rivers. A model that generates simultaneous correlated streamflows in both rivers was developed and tested. The model is a modified shot noise model, first developed by Treiber (1975) for a single river, that was adapted to two rivers. It generates correlated pulses of events that produce flow for each river, and these pulses are then convoluted with a river specific systems function. The model, after being calibrated for the two rivers on the basis of 85 years of records, yields artificial series of discharges, in which the statistical properties of the historical records are reproduced. The performance of the model was tested with 20 generated series each 100 years long.     

Comparison of two approaches for generation of daily rainfall data

There has been extensive research on the problem of stochastically generating daily rainfall sequences for use in water management applications. Srikanthan and McMahon [Australia Water Resources Council, Canberra, 1985] proposed a transition probability matrix (TPM) model that performs better for Australian rainfall than many alternative models, particularly where long records (say 100 years) are available. Boughton [Report 99/9, CRC for Catchment Hydrology, Monash University, Melbourne, 21pp, 1999] incorporated an empirical adjustment into the TPM model that allows the model to reproduce the observed variability in the annual rainfall. More recently, Harrold et al. [Water Resour Res 39(10, 12):1300, 1343, 2003a,b] proposed nonparametric models for the generation of daily rainfall occurrences and rainfall amounts on wet days. By conditioning on short, medium and long-term characteristics, this approach is also able to preserve the variability in annual rainfall. In this study, the above two approaches were used to generate daily rainfall data for Sydney and Melbourne, and the results evaluated. Both approaches preserved most of the daily, monthly and annual characteristics that were compared, with the nonparametric approach providing marginally better performance at the cost of greater model complexity. The nonparametric approach was also able to preserve the variability and persistence in the annual number of wet days.     

A multivariate non‐parametric model for synthetic generation of daily streamflow

A p‐order multivariate kernel density model based on kernel density theory has been developed for synthetic generation of multivariate variables. It belongs to a kind of data‐driven approach and is able to avoid prior assumptions as to the form of probability distribution (normal or Pearson III) and the form of dependence (linear or non‐linear). The p‐order multivariate kernel density model is a non‐parametric method for synthesis of streamflow. The model is more flexible than conventional parametric models used in stochastic hydrology. The effectiveness and satisfactoriness of this model are illustrated through its application to the simultaneous synthetic generation of daily streamflow from Pingshan station and Yibin‐Pingshan region (Yi‐Ping region) of the Jinsha River in China. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A conceptually based stochastic point process model for daily stream‐flow generation

Based on the stochastic and phenomenological aspects of hydrological processes, a conceptually based stochastic point process (SPP) model for daily stream‐flow generation is proposed in this paper. In which, storms are defined by a stochastic point process with marked values. All the random variables defining the process are assumed to be mutually independent, which constitutes a compound Poisson point process. The direct surface runoff is regarded as occurring from storage in a cascade of surface linear reservoirs and is responsible for the short‐term variation of the daily stream flows. The baseflow component is considered as coming from subsurface/groundwater storage and is responsible for the long‐term persistence of the storm time‐series. This type of model is proposed as a more realistic model of daily stream flow than models based on pure stochastic processes. Studies on the instantaneous unit hydrograph and the mechanism of baseflow could thereby provide some parameters for this model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model for daily flows of intermittent streams

A stochastic model for synthetic data generation is not available in the literature for daily flows of intermittent streams. Such a model is required in the planning and operation of structures on an intermittent stream for purposes where short time flow fluctuations are important. In this study a model is developed for such a case. The model consists of four steps: determination of the days on which flow occurs, determination of the days on which a flow increment occurs, determination of the magnitude of the flow increment, and calculation of the flow decrement on days when the flow is reduced. The first two steps are modelled by a three‐state Markov chain. In the third step, flow increments on the rising limb of the hydrograph are assumed to be gamma distributed. In the last step an exponential recession is used with two different coefficients. Parameters of the model are estimated from the observed daily stream flow data for each month of the year. The model is applied to a daily flow series of 35 years' length. It is seen that the model can preserve the short‐term characteristics (the ascension and recession curves and peaks) of the hydrograph in addition to the long‐term characteristics (mean, variance, skewness, lag‐one and higher lag autocorrelation coefficients, and zero flow percentage). The number of parameters of the model can be decreased by fitting Fourier series to their annual variation. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hydrologic routing model suitable for climate‐scale simulations of arctic rivers: application to the Mackenzie River Basin

In this study, the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model was modified for arctic river basin applications and used to route surface and subsurface run‐off from the Community Land Model (CLM) in the Mackenzie River Basin (MRB) for the period 2000–2004. The HRR modelling framework performs lateral surface and subsurface run‐off routing from hillslopes and channel/floodplain routing. The HRR model was modified here to include a variable subsurface active layer thickness (ALT; permafrost) to enable subsurface water to resurface, a distributed surface storage component to store and attenuate the rapid generation of snowmelt water, compound hillslopes to account for the low relief near rivers and floodplains, and reservoir routing to complete the total surface and subsurface water storage accounting. To illustrate the new HRR model components, a case study is presented for the MRB. The basin is discretized into 5077 sub‐basins based on a drainage network derived from the global digital elevation model (DEM) developed from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor on board NASA's Terra satellite and river widths extracted from LandSat images. The median hillslope land area is 68.5 km² with a flow length of 2.8 km. Gridded CLM surface and subsurface run‐offs are remapped to the HRR model's irregular sub‐basins. The role of each new model component is quantified in terms of peak annual streamflow (magnitude and timing) at select locations and basin‐wide total water storage anomalies. The role of distributed surface storage is shown to attenuate the relatively rapid generation of snowmelt water, impact the annual peak hydrograph (reduced peaks by >30% and detailed peak by >20 days), and account for 20% of the monthly total water storage anomalies averaged over the year and ranging from 14 to 25% (?10 to 30 mm) throughout the year. Although additional research is needed to dynamically link spatially distributed ALT to HRR, the role of ALT is shown to be important. A basin‐wide, uniform 1 m ALT impacts the annual peak hydrograph (reduced peaks by 9% and detailed peak by 8 days) and trends in total water storage anomalies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大连地震台地磁Z分量日变化特征初步分析

利用大连地震台地磁Z分量观测资料,对其日变幅度、低点时间和日变形态的年变化进行分析,由此初步总结地磁Z分量日变化的规律及特征,对识别地磁场异常变化或干扰变化具有一定参考意义。     

A stochastic model describing the impact of daily rainfall depth distribution on the soil water balance

Simplified, vertically-averaged soil moisture models have been widely used to describe and study eco-hydrological processes in water-limited ecosystems. The principal aim of these models is to understand how the main physical and biological processes linking soil, vegetation, and climate impact on the statistical properties of soil moisture. A key component of these models is the stochastic nature of daily rainfall, which is mathematically described as a compound Poisson process with daily rainfall amounts drawn from an exponential distribution. Since measurements show that the exponential distribution is often not the best candidate to fit daily rainfall, we compare the soil moisture probability density functions obtained from a soil water balance model with daily rainfall depths assumed to be distributed as exponential, mixed-exponential, and gamma. This model with different daily rainfall distributions is applied to a catchment in New South Wales, Australia, in order to show that the estimation of the seasonal statistics of soil moisture might be improved when using the distribution that better fits daily rainfall data. This study also shows that the choice of the daily rainfall distributions might considerably affect the estimation of vegetation water-stress, leakage and runoff occurrence, and the whole water balance.     

The hydrocarbon generation mechanism and the three-stage type model of hydrocarbon generation for carbonate source rocks

The diagenetic mechanism and process of carbonate rocks, which is different to that of clastic rocks, decides the existence of different existing state organic matters in carbonate rocks. This has been verified by both the microscopic observation of organic petrology and the analysis of organic geochemistry of many samples. Based on the hydrous pyrolysis simulation experiment of the low-mature carbonate rocks, the contrasting study on the yield and their geochemistry characteristics of different existing state soluble organic matters of a series of various maturity samples shows that the different existing state organic matters make different contributions to hydrocarbon generation during every evolution state. So that, the hydrocarbon generation process of carbonate rocks can be summarized as the following three stages: the first is the direct degradation of biogenic bitumen macromolecules during the immature stage, the second is the thermal degradation of a large amount of kerogen at the mature stage, the last stage is the expulsion or release of inclusion organic matter owing to the increased thermal expansion pressure during the high evolution stage. Part of achievements of the Eighth Five-Year National Science-Technology Key-Task Project “85-102-02-07”.     

The evolving perceptual model of streamflow generation at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed

The Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) is a 41-hectare forested catchment within the Piedmont Province of the Southeastern United States. Observations, experimentation, and numerical modelling have been conducted at Panola over the past 35 years. But to date, these studies have not been fully incorporated into a more comprehensive synthesis. Here we describe the evolving perceptual understanding of streamflow generation mechanisms at the PMRW. We show how the long-term study has enabled insights that were initially unforeseen but are also unachievable in short-term studies. In particular, we discuss how the accumulation of field evidence, detailed site characterization, and modelling enabled a priori hypotheses to be formed, later rejected, and then further refined through repeated field campaigns. The extensive characterization of the soil and bedrock provided robust process insights not otherwise achievable from hydrometric measurements and numerical modelling alone. We focus on two major aspects of streamflow generation: the role of hillslopes (and their connection to the riparian zone) and the role of catchment storage in controlling fluxes and transit times of water in the catchment. Finally, we present location-independent hypotheses based on our findings at PMRW and suggest ways to assess the representativeness of PMRW in the broader context of headwater watersheds.     

Mathematical model for evaluation of the effect of soil erosion on soil productivity

This paper is concerned with the development of a stochastic model for evaluating the long-term effect of soil erosion on soil productivity. Due to random variations in annual crop yield, the effect of erosion on crop production is not easily detectable in the short run, but becomes gradually evident over a sufficiently long time period. Under these circumstances, it seems that an experimental approach to this problem may be very difficult. The long period of time over which such an experiment has to be conducted may result in prohibitively high costs. In addition, it also means that eventual resolution of this problem must be postponed until a distant future time. The stochastic model formulated here provides us with a useful tool to assess the trend in quantitative changes in crop production due to erosion and to project future crop losses. The model is a discrete parameter stochastic process. Its derivation is based on a single assumption that the annual loss rates form a sequence of independent random variables {Z_i}₁∞ (in this paper, we consider only two particular cases: (a) {Z_i}₁∞ is a sequence of constants; (b) {Z_i}₁∞ is a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables). For these particular cases, we obtained its marginal n-dimensional distribution function and correlation function. One of the principal model features is its simple structure and remarkable lack of restrictive and unrealistic assumptions.     

T‐NET,a dynamic model for simulating daily stream temperature at the regional scale based on a network topology

Currently, the distribution areas of aquatic species are studied by using air temperature as a proxy of water temperature, which is not available at a regional scale. To simulate water temperature at a regional scale, a physically based model using the equilibrium temperature concept and including upstream‐downstream propagation of the thermal signal is proposed. This model, called Temperature‐NETwork (T‐NET), is based on a hydrographical network topology and was tested at the Loire basin scale (10⁵ km²). The T‐NET model obtained a mean root mean square error of 1.6 °C at a daily time step on the basis of 128 water temperature stations (2008–2012). The model obtained excellent performance at stations located on small and medium rivers (distance from headwater <100 km) that are strongly influenced by headwater conditions (median root mean square error of 1.8 °C). The shading factor and the headwater temperature were the most important variables on the mean simulated temperature, while the river discharge influenced the daily temperature variation and diurnal amplitude. The T‐NET model simulates specific events, such as temperature of the Loire during the floods of June 1992 and the thermal regime response of streams during the heatwave of August 2003, much more efficiently than a simple point‐scale heat balance model. The T‐NET model is very consistent at a regional scale and could easily be transposed to changing forcing conditions and to other catchments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic model of surface contaminant releases to support assessment of site contamination at a former industrial site

An industrial site is usually contaminated by accidental (and occasionally intentional) releases of pollutants to the environment from various operations carried out on that site. Consequently, the pattern of contamination created during the life of the site depends in part, at least, on the pattern of operations. Thus, the assessment of the pattern of contamination over the site should be improved: if it is possible to identify the pattern of operations on the site, the duration of the different activities and the perceived likelihood of releases from the different operations. A stochastic model has been developed that can be used to simulate alternative realizations of contaminant releases (duration, extent and timing). The model employs release zones associated with particular activities or groups of activities on the site and the areas of each of the zones may be independent or overlapping. The period of activity in each zone is obtained from the site records, while the likelihood and extent of contamination in each zone is inferred from an analysis of the contamination data obtained by point sampling. The form of the model, the method of inference of the model parameter values from the site data and the application of the model to the study site are presented. The release model has been developed as part of a suite of stochastic models for site ground contamination analysis. The stochastic soil and transport models and the application of the integrated modelling system are described in separate papers.     

A nonlinear data‐driven model for synthetic generation of annual streamflows

A hybrid model that blends two non‐linear data‐driven models, i.e. an artificial neural network (ANN) and a moving block bootstrap (MBB), is proposed for modelling annual streamflows of rivers that exhibit complex dependence. In the proposed model, the annual streamflows are modelled initially using a radial basis function ANN model. The residuals extracted from the neural network model are resampled using the non‐parametric resampling technique MBB to obtain innovations, which are then added back to the ANN‐modelled flows to generate synthetic replicates. The model has been applied to three annual streamflow records with variable record length, selected from different geographic regions, namely Africa, USA and former USSR. The performance of the proposed ANN‐based non‐linear hybrid model has been compared with that of the linear parametric hybrid model. The results from the case studies indicate that the proposed ANN‐based hybrid model (ANNHM) is able to reproduce the skewness present in the streamflows better compared to the linear parametric‐based hybrid model (LPHM), owing to the effective capturing of the non‐linearities. Moreover, the ANNHM, being a completely data‐driven model, reproduces the features of the marginal distribution more closely than the LPHM, but offers less smoothing and no extrapolation value. It is observed that even though the preservation of the linear dependence structure by the ANNHM is inferior to the LPHM, the effective blending of the two non‐linear models helps the ANNHM to predict the drought and the storage characteristics efficiently. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

海域流动点外部扰动引力无奇异计算模型

针对海域重力场变化特征和远程飞行器机动发射保障应用需求,本文分析研究了地球外部空间扰动引力三类传统计算模型的技术特点及其适用性,指出了采用表层法作为海域流动点扰动引力计算模型的合理性及需要解决的关键问题,分析论证了空中扰动引力计算对地面观测数据的分辨率和精度要求,提出通过引入局部积分域恒等式变换、局域泰勒级数展开和非网格点内插方法,消除表层法计算模型积分奇异性固有缺陷的研究思路,进而推出了适合于海域流动点应用的扰动引力无奇异计算模型,较好地满足了全海域和全高度段对局部扰动重力场快速赋值的实际需求.以超高阶全球位模型EGM2008作为标准场,通过数值计算验证了无奇异计算模型的可行性和有效性,在重力场变化比较剧烈的海沟区,该模型的计算精度优于2×10^-5m·s^-2.

     

A shot noise model for the generation of soil moisture data

An attempt is made to estimate the expected contribution of rainfall to soil moisture during the irrigation season. Effective rainfall and evapotranspiration are the parameters considered in the water balance carried out in the root zone. Rainfall occurrence is simulated by a Poisson process whereas evapotranspiration is described by a simple deterministic function of potential evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the root zone. Using the theory of shot noise models a closed form solution is derived from the expected soil moisture in the root zone at the end of the time interval (0,t]. For illustration purposes the proposed model is applied to a series of data from Mikra meteorological station in Greece.List of symbols x change in water storage in the root zone during the time interval t - X infiltrated rainfall of thei th storm event - ET actual evapotranspiration during thej th day - Poisson rate - number of storm events in (0,t] - t _r duration of rainfall - t _b interarrival time - h _i rainfall depth of thei th storm event - i _m mean rainfall intensity - i(t) instantaneous rainfall intensity - x(0),x(t) available soil moisture in the root zone at time 0 andt, respectively - PET potential evapotranspiration rate - x _F available soil moisture in the root zone at field capacity - soil moisture depletion rate (=PET/x _F ) - w impulse shape of filtered Poisson processes - E[·] mean value - S _i time of thei th rainfall event - N(t) time of storm events in (0,t] - estimated standard deviation The following symbols were used in this paper     

Relevant effects of vegetal cover and litter on the soil hydrological response of two contrasting Mediterranean hillslopes at the end of the dry season (south of Spain)

In Mediterranean regions, hillslopes are generally considered to be a mosaic of sink and source areas that control runoff generation and water erosion processes. These hillslopes used to be characterized by a complex hydrological and erosive response combining Hortonian and saturation excess overland flows. The hydrological response of soils is highly dependent on the soil surface components (e.g. vegetation patches, bare soil, rock fragment cover, crusts), which each one of them is dominated by a certain hydrological process. One of these soil surface components, not widely considered in studies of soil hydrology under Mediterranean conditions, is the accumulation of litter beneath shrubs enhancing water repellency in soils. This study investigates the influence of soil surface components, especially the litter accumulated beneath Cistus spp., in the hydrological and erosive responses of soils on two Mediterranean hillslopes having different exposures. The study was performed by means of rainfall simulation experiments and the Water Drop Penetration Time for measuring water repellency of soils, both techniques being carried out at the end of summer (September 2010) with very dry soils. The results indicate that (i) soil surface components from the north facing hillslope are characterized by a more uniform hydrological and erosive response than those from the south‐facing ones; (ii) the water repellency is more influential on the hydrological response of the north‐facing hillslope due to a greater accumulation of organic rest on the soils as the vegetation cover is also higher; (iii) the south‐facing hillslope seemed to follow the fertility island theory with very degraded bare soil areas, which are the most generated areas of runoff and mobilized sediments; (iv) the experimental area can be considered as a threshold area between the semiarid and subhumid Mediterranean environments, with the south‐facing hillslope being comparable with the former and the north facing one with the latter. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

松辽盆地深部地壳构造特征与无机油气生成模式

松辽盆地中地壳有一低速-高导层(也称塑性层),中地壳的塑性层与松辽盆地的成因以及盆山耦合系统有关.盆地地幔流体活动有下列表现:(1)高热流、高地温场;(2)深大断裂与火山岩喷溢;(3)碱交代作用(如钠长石化、伊利石化);(4)Mg2 交代作用(如白云石化)等等.地球化学省与地球化学急变带控制了大油气田的分布并显示了盆地发生的壳-幔相互作用.中地壳的低速-高导层不是岩浆岩,而是一充满地幔流体的地质体,它们富含氢、碱金属(K 、Na )、卤素(F-、Cl-)、碳(甲烷、CO、CO2)、氮、硫等.在中地壳的温度压力条件下,在Fe、Ni等催化荆的参与下,H2与CO(CO2)可发生费-托合成烃的反应.实验表明:这个反应不仅可生成气态烃还可生成液态烃,并将发生碳同位素分馏作用.松辽盆地的U形运移模型受到质疑.按照石油无机生成的模型,松辽盆地的深部将会有更多的石油与天然气,庆深气田的发现便是一个明证.