地区线性矩法估算的暴雨频率设计值空间连续性问题探讨

地区线性矩法(Regional L-moments Analysis,RLMA)是目前最先进的频率估算方法之一,自20世纪90年代起被广泛应用于美国及其他一些国家的防洪设计标准的分析计算中;我国近年也在太湖流域暴雨频率分析中成功地采用推广了这一水文气象途径的频率计算方法,积累了实际经验。但是,由于地面雨量站点有限、资料长度有限以及站点空间分布的不均匀等问题,研究区中相邻水文气象一致区之间暴雨频率估算值会出现空间不连续性的现象,这个空间不一致的问题尚没有得到合理的解决。在简要介绍地区线性矩法推求频率估计值的基础上,着重讨论并介绍一种概念清楚、简单易操作的基于空间往返二次内插的校正方法,来解决频率估算值空间不连续的问题。这种空间内插平差主要通过构造一个与研究区实测站点控制面积相应分辨率的虚拟网格站网来实现。研究结果表明,经过平差后校正的研究区内各站点的频率估计值的经验频率与理论概率更加接近,频率估计值的空间分布也更加合理。     

基于水文气象分区线性矩法的淮河流域极值降雨频率分析

以淮河流域为研究区,利用地区线性矩法进行站点极值降雨的频率分析。研究结果表明:基于气象成因和水文统计特性相结合的方法将研究区划分为6个通过异质性和不和谐性检测的水文气象一致区。在此基础上,通过蒙特卡罗模拟、均方根误差和线性矩系数的相关图综合判断得出各时段下6个一致区下的最优分布。其中,24h时段下的最优分布分别为:GEV、GNO、GLO、GEV、GLO、GEV。利用最优分布计算出淮河流域各站点一整套(多时段多重现期)的频率估计值。其中,最大值分布在沂蒙山区,这与站点的实际观测相一致。水文气象分区线性矩法是一种稳健可靠的频率分析方法,可应用于其它流域。     

Observed daily large-scale rainfall patterns during BOBMEX-1999

A daily rainfall dataset and the corresponding rainfall maps have been produced by objective analysis of rainfall data. The satellite estimate of rainfall and the raingauge values are merged to form the final analysis. Associated with epochs of monsoon these rainfall maps are able to show the rainfall activities over India and the Bay of Bengal region during the BOBMEX period. The intra-seasonal variations of rainfall during BOBMEX are also seen using these data. This dataset over the oceanic region compares well with other available popular datasets like GPCP and CMAP. Over land this dataset brings out the features of monsoon in more detail due to the availability of more local raingauge stations.     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in Jakarta

Natural Hazards - Jakarta is vulnerable to flooding and extreme rainfall events are always the main cause of the occurrence of heavy flood events with loss of life and property. The flood in...     

Maximum daily rainfall in South Korea

Annual maxima of daily rainfall for the years 1961–2001 are modeled for five locations in South Korea (chosen to give a good geographical representation of the country). The generalized extreme value distribution is fitted to data from each location to describe the extremes of rainfall and to predict its future behavior. We find evidence to suggest that the Gumbel distribution provides the most reasonable model for four of the five locations considered. We explore the possibility of trends in the data but find no evidence suggesting trends. We derive estimates of 10, 50, 100, 1000, 5000, 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 year return levels for daily rainfall and describe how they vary with the locations. This paper provides the first application of extreme value distributions to rainfall data from South Korea.     

Multivariate delineation of rainfall homogeneous regions for estimating quantiles of maximum daily rainfall: A case study of northwestern Mexico

Lack of data in maximum daily rainfall frequency analysis can generate ineffcient estimates for design purposes. An approach to diminish these errors is to apply regional estimation techniques, which require that all stations be located at the same homogeneous region. In this paper, a delineation of homogeneous precipitation regions was made based on the multivariate methods of principal component analysis and hierarchical ascending clustering. A region in northwestern Mexico was selected to apply this methodology. It was concluded that only the coeffcients of variation of the L-moments, along with latitude, longitude and altitude at each climatological station are sufficient to define the homogeneous rainfall regions, and that either the inclusion or exclusion of information in the regional techniques has a direct impact on the estimation of events associated to different return periods.     

中国日降雨空间变化对雨水径流源头总量控制的影响

为研究中国不同区域的降雨特征对径流总量控制效果的影响,利用186个气象站近30年的日降雨量资料,通过空间分析与统计计算,得到不同年径流总量控制率所对应的设计降雨量以及年均控制降雨量;结合年径流总量控制率与年均控制降雨量的关系将中国区域分为9种类型。结果表明:中国设计降雨量地域变化明显,广东、四川、广西、河北和河南等省的标准差为全国平均水平的1.5~3倍,且随年径流总量控制率的提升而增加,源头径流控制效果差异明显;南部地区径流控制效果多为"高量低率";"低量低率"区位于甘肃、宁夏等地,面积占比为9.44%,其降雨特征不适合发挥源头控制设施的效果;而最适宜发挥源头控制作用的"高量高率"区位于西南部分地区,面积占比为3.80%。     

滑坡频度-降雨量的分形关系

降雨-滑坡关系是对降雨引发的滑坡进行预报的一个重要基础。本文根据中国浙江省1990～2003年期间有明确日期和坐标记录的1414个滑坡数据和基本覆盖浙江全部陆地区域的1257个雨量站记录的日降雨量数据,研究了滑坡频度-降雨关系。研究结果表明,降雨引发滑坡的频度与降雨量之间遵循分形的幂指数关系,并且在两个尺度的降雨量范围内具有不同的标度指数。按照幂指数关系拟合的两条滑坡累计频度-降雨关系线交点(拐点)处的降雨量(Rin)指出了引发75%左右滑坡的累计降雨阀值的上边界(以THCR表示)。对1d、4d、6d和11d这4个累计降雨时段的研究表明,引发75%左右滑坡的累计降雨阀值分别为205mm(1d)、273mm(4d)、294mm(6d)、315mm(11d)。     

改进的斜坡降雨入渗与坡面径流耦合算法研究

大气降雨时坡面径流与非饱和入渗的耦合计算,是降雨诱发滑坡及水土流失等研究中的重大问题之一。从坡面径流和降雨入渗控制方程着手,建立了基于有限元方法的耦合方程求解模型,实现了耦合问题的直接求解。该耦合计算模型与求解方法避免了坡面径流和降雨入渗间的迭代计算,也不需计算两者间的流量交换,较大程度地提高了计算效率和计算精度。算例表明,该方法正确可行,计算效率高,稳定性好。     

降雨入渗规律的实测与分析

关于降雨入渗可降低土坡的稳定性的研究很多,其机制也逐渐趋明确。然而,一场降雨对土坡稳定产生影响的入渗雨量计算问题还没有得到很好地解决。Holten等研究者的一些计算入渗量的方法在土坡的实际应用中难以满足精度要求;而一些有限元的边界处理方法则建立在假定的入渗规律基础上,多少存在不足。研究设计了室内降雨入渗土柱试验,在初步揭示降雨入渗过程和规律基础上,探讨了准确反映降雨入渗量的有限元计算方法,并通过数值试验进一步揭示室内试验未能明确的降雨入渗规律。     

考虑前期降雨过程的边坡稳定性分析

基于三峡库区实测降雨资料,研究了不同初始条件对不同土体边坡稳定性影响,建议了能够反映边坡含水状态的初始条件选取方法。在此基础上,采用非饱和渗流分析方法研究了前期降雨对不同土体边坡稳定性影响,以典型的砂土和黏土边坡为例初步探索了前期降雨对边坡稳定性影响规律。结果表明：初始条件对不同土体边坡稳定性影响不同;建议将多年平均降雨量对应的稳态渗流场作为初始条件进行非饱和渗流分析。边坡土体渗透系数越低,边坡稳定性受前期降雨的影响越大、影响时间也越长。砂土和黏土边坡稳定性分析时建议至少考虑15 d以上的前期降雨,对于砂土边坡还应根据这15 d前面5 d的降雨情况确定是否需要增加计算天数。短历时高强度前期降雨对砂土边坡稳定性影响更大,而长历时低强度前期降雨对黏土边坡稳定性影响更大。累积前期降雨量可以作为判断边坡最小安全系数出现时刻的依据。砂土边坡出现最小安全系数时刻与10 d累积前期降雨量最大的时刻较为吻合,而黏土边坡则与15 d累积前期降雨量最大的时刻较为吻合。     

降雨入渗条件下软岩边坡稳定性分析

降雨条件下软岩边坡的失稳模式是进行边坡处治的基本依据之一。为研究软岩边坡在降雨条件下的稳定性,提出了一种既能考虑渗流场对边坡稳定性的影响,又能体现岩石软化效应对边坡失稳所带来的不利作用的新方法。运用二维渗流数值计算方法,对降雨条件下的边坡孔隙水压力大小及暂态饱和区面积在空间及时间上的分布进行了模拟。并将渗流场计算结果与暂态饱和区岩石软化试验所得岩石物理力学参数随时间的取值相结合,采用强度折减法分析软岩边坡在降雨入渗条件下的稳定性。对算例边坡的研究表明：降雨入渗条件下软岩边坡的失稳在降雨初期表现为边坡表层局部分层垮塌。随着降雨历时的增长,失稳形式则表现为局部分层垮塌与整体滑移相结合。降雨停止后,边坡负孔隙水压力的消散,对软岩边坡安全系数的继续降低具有一定的延缓作用。     

Singular spectral analysis of homogeneous Indian monsoon (HIM) rainfall

Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region rainfall for the epoch 1871–1990 has been analysed using Singular Spectral Analysis. It is shown that the HIM time series is simple in structure with only the annual oscillation and its first two harmonics accounting for almost the entire variability. Longer period oscillations related to lunar tidal forcing, solar activity and quasibiennial variation are conspicuously absent. It is also shown that the singular spectral decomposition is closely similar to complex demodulation and thus provides variations in the signals which evolve only slowly with time. As the rainfall series is marked by several jerky changes, predictability of HIM rainfall through the principal components derived from SSA appears impossible.     

降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡稳定分析

针对降雨入渗土坡的稳定问题,建立一个考虑水力渗透系数特征曲线、土-水特征曲线以及修正的Mohr-Coulomb破坏准则的非饱和土流固耦合有限元计算模型,进行雨水入渗下非饱和土边坡渗流场和应力场耦合的数值模拟,得到非饱和土边坡变形与应力的若干重要规律。研究成果为降雨入渗条件下非饱和土边坡的稳定分析提供了基础。     

基于平均降雨量的路堤稳定可靠性分析

基于平均降雨量概念,考虑降雨的随机性,用改进的JC法和Monte Carlo模拟方法（MCSM）对公路路堤结构边坡进行了可靠度稳定对比分析,且考虑了随机变量为相关任意分布的情况编制了相应程序。根据实测数据,定量分析了路堤边坡土体因降雨而引起的饱和度变化对土体强度参数的影响;此外,对路堤稳定敏感性因素及其可靠度的一些规律进行了一些研究。     

暴雨型滑坡降水入渗机理分析

暴雨能诱发大量的滑坡发生,在不同地区存在不同的临界降雨值,每当雨强大于该值时,滑坡就会大面积发生,这已经被多起滑坡事件证实。一般地,入渗理论认为,当雨强大于一定值时,入渗率是常量,过强的降水会转化为地表径流,这与雨强越大滑坡越易发生、群发性越强的观察结果不一致。在斜坡体上存在大量的裂隙,它们对降水入渗有着很大的贡献,应用有限单元法分别模拟了有裂隙和无裂隙时斜坡体内瞬态渗流场的变化,并用Bishop法对不同埋深滑动面的稳定性做了计算分析。模拟结果表明：考虑裂隙时的计算结果与宏观观察结果更一致,在评价降雨入渗对斜坡稳定性的影响时,一定要充分考虑裂隙的存在,只有雨强大于一个临界值时才会有充足的降水通过裂隙渗入到斜坡深部,裂隙的影响才显著地表现出来。     

Slope stability analysis in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area considering effect of antecedent rainfall

Effects of different initial conditions of pore water pressure distribution on slope stability are investigated based on rainfall data in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. A method to incorporate the initial condition of pore water pressure distribution into the slope stability analysis is suggested. Then, sandy and clayey slopes are taken as examples to investigate the effect of antecedent rainfall on slope stability. Results indicate that the influence of antecedent rainfall on the slope stability increases as the saturated permeability coefficient of the soil decreases.     

Probabilistic multi-model ensemble prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using general circulation models: A non-parametric approach

Probabilistic prediction has the ability to convey the intrinsic uncertainty of forecast that helps the decision makers to manage the climate risk more efficiently than deterministic forecasts. In recent times, probabilistic predictions obtained from the products from General Circulation Models (GCMs) have gained considerable attention. The probabilistic forecast can be generated in parametric (assuming Gaussian distribution) as well as non-parametric (counting method) ways. The present study deals with the non-parametric approach that requires no assumption about the form of the forecast distribution for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) based on the hindcast run of seven general circulation models from 1982 to 2008. Probabilistic prediction from each of the GCM products has been generated by non-parametric methods for tercile categories (viz. below normal (BN), near-normal (NN), and above normal (AN)) and evaluation of their skill is assessed against observed data. Five different types of PMME schemes have been used for combining probabilities from each GCM to improve the forecast skill as compared to the individual GCMs. These schemes are different in nature of assigning the weights for combining probabilities. After a rigorous analysis through Rank Probability Skill Score (RPSS) and relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the superiority of PMME has been established over climatological probability. It is also found that, the performances of PMME1 and PMME3 are better than all the other methods whereas PMME3 has showed more improvement over PMME1.     

地区线性矩法在太湖流域暴雨频率分析中的应用

介绍了基于水文气象途径的地区线性矩法的概念,通过基于次序统计量的线性矩进行参数估计与基于水文气象一致区的地区分析法相结合,以太湖流域1d时段的年极值降雨资料为例,进行暴雨频率分析。应用水文气象一致区的判别准则,将太湖流域划分为8个水文气象一致区;综合考虑三种拟合优度检测方法,选择1~8区的最优分布线型分别为:GEV、GLO、GEV、GEV、GNO、GNO、GEV、GNO;根据地区分析法原理,估算各雨量站的暴雨频率设计值。分析表明:太湖流域各重现期下的年极值降雨空间分布形态基本一致,西南山区是太湖流域的暴雨高风险区,应该在地区防洪规划中引起重视。结果表明:地区线性矩法具有很高的学术和实用价值,建议在全国范围内推广,作为防洪规划的顶层设计和基础工作,以满足工程防洪设计、地区防洪规划、山洪预警和城市防涝防洪规划等方面的需求。     

降雨入渗对土坡稳定性影响分析

在饱和-非饱和渗流理论基础上,从降雨强度、前期降雨总量、不同的土坡坡度以及是否考虑植被护坡等方面对大气降雨条件下土坡的稳定性进行了探讨.分析结果表明,在土体饱和渗透系数一定的条件下,强降雨对土坡稳定系数影响显著;土坡越陡,降雨强度大小对土坡安全性影响就俞显突出;土坡表层植物根系的存在影响非饱和区渗流场分布,可以延缓非饱和区含水量的增大,土坡稳定系数得到提高.