Oil spill fishery impact assessment modeling: The fisheries recruitment problem

A model to assess the impact of oil spill on fisheries, consisting of an oil spill fates model, a continental shelf hydrodynamics model, an ichthyoplankton transport and fates model, and a fish population model, has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to estimate the impact of oil spills on several important commercial fisheries. The model addresses direct impacts of oil on a fishery through hydrocarbon-induced egg and larval mortality. This early life stage mortality is estimated by dynamically mapping the spatial intersection of the surface and subsurface oil concentrations resulting from the spill with the developing eggs and larvae. Ichthyoplankton entering an area with hydrocarbon concentrations in excess of a specified threshold are assumed lost. Model output is given in terms of differential catch, comparing the non-impacted and the hydrocarbon impacted fisheries. Difficulties in establishing stock-recruit relationships, and the inability to predict first year survival even one year ahead make the quantification of absolute catch losses impossible. Output of the model system discussed here is therefore limited to relative rather than absolute catch losses.The paper is organized to demonstrate first the importance of the recruitment question to impact estimation, second that a modeling methodology is necessary to evaluate impacts given the magnitude of unexplained observed recruitment variability, and third a stochastic solution to the problem which places impact estimates in the context of a probability distribution. Lastly, the model system is applied to the problem of attaining better early life history mortality estimates, to ultimately improve impact estimation capabilities.     

Oil spill fishery impact assessment model: Sensitivity to spill location and timing

An oil spill fishery impact assessment model system has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the sensitivity of probable impact on several key fisheries to spill location and timing. Simulations of the impact on the fishery of tanker spills (20 million gallons released over 5 days), at two separate locations for each season of the year, and blowout spills (68 million gallons released over 30 days) at one location, with monthly releases and at six other locations with seasonal spills have been studied. Atlantic cod has been employed as the principal fish species throughout the simulations. Impacts on Atlantic herring and haddock have also been investigated for selected cases. All spill sites are located on Georges Bank with the majority in the general region of OCS leasing activity.The results of these simulations suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning, the population dynamics of the species under study, and the hydrodynamics of the area. For the species studied, spills occurring during the winter and spring have the largest impact with cod being the most heavily impacted followed by haddock and herring. In all cases, the maximum cumulative loss to the fishery of a one time spill event never exceeded 25% of the annual catch with the exact value depending on the number of ichthyoplankton impacted by the spill and the compensatory dynamics of the population.     

基于模糊综合评判的海洋溢油污染评估模型研究

在分析总结相关研究成果的基础上,利用模糊综合评估方法,对溢油污染程度相关影响因素进行深入分析研究,对溢油污染程度评估指标体系进行改进和完善,提出溢油量和离岸距离两个影响因子新的隶属度函数,构建新的海域敏感区隶属度子集表并计算各指标的权重。最后,应用此模型对2002年渤海绥中36-1油田中心平台溢油事故进行评估,结果显示污染程度评估等级有明显提高,以期为海洋溢油污染评估提供科学依据,并通过提高污染评估等级引起人们对海洋环境的重视。     

The effects of the M/V Sea Prince accident on maritime safety management in Korea

The Sea Prince accident was the first VLCC accident in Korea and a shock to the general public and government. Before the accident, any oil-spill management plan, such as National contingency plan (NCP) and regional contingency plans (RCPs), was not available and the resources for oil spills were lacking for the Sea Prince accident. About 5000 tons of oil spilled, polluting large areas of southern coastal waters, damaging the fisheries, including aquaculture. After the Sea Prince accident, Korea's government established various alternatives for dealing with oil spills, such as the NCP, RCPs, Typhoon Refuge Management Plan, and resources for oil-spill response. However, port safety management in emergency situations such as typhoons has not been solved.     

渤海海域多源遥感溢油风险评价与长序监测

渤海海域溢油事件频发,所以进行海洋溢油风险时空特征分析,对于开展卫星遥感溢油精确监测具有重要意义.作者采用多源高分辨率卫星遥感数据,提取渤海海域船舶及石油平台两类主要溢油风险源分布状况,结合2015—2020年间渤海海域海上溢油卫星遥感监测结果,分析多种传感器下不同类型溢油的成像特征,通过溢油风险源核密度分析方法,获得...     

基于信息熵的溢油对天然渔业可持续承载力损害的评估

作者基于信息熵理论,以溢油事故对海洋天然渔业损害为切入点探讨海洋生态系统可持续承载力损害评估方法。论文从生态系统状态、功能、污染、修复等4个方面构建了熵流和熵产生指标体系,以"塔斯曼海"轮溢油事故为例进行计算和评估,结果表明:溢油使海洋生态系统的价值产出能力下降94.7%、总的承载力下降194.9%,溢油治理的效果小于溢油对生态承载力的损害。本评价是现有溢油生态损害评价的补充,可为长期生态损害评估、生态修复和环境管理决策提供科学依据。     

无人机海上溢油跟踪监测系统设计及仿真

海上环境变化多端,造成溢油的漂移和扩散会出现不可预测的情况,精确、实时地监测海上溢油是现今亟待解决的问题.无人机以其部署快、成本低、环境适应性强的优势在海上溢油监测领域得到重视,但单架无人机监测能力弱,而多架无人机监测的准确性仍需提高.为此,本文提出一种无人机群海面溢油自动导航跟踪监测的架构和方法,根据海上溢油浓度的变化进行路径规划.该方法包括建立溢油模型和设计无人机跟踪控制系统.溢油模型主要描述海上溢油时空变化的形态复杂性;控制器可控制无人机追踪和监测溢油漂移及扩散的情况.同时,将无人机跟踪控制系统与人工势场法相结合,避免无人机相撞.最后,进行数值仿真,结果表明该跟踪系统与溢油的重合率达到70％～80％,验证了该方法的可行性.未来,该系统可广泛应用于无人机群对不同环境现象和灾害的跟踪监测.     

海面太阳耀斑区的溢油光学遥感CNN检测方法研究

海面发生大面积溢油事故时,由于太阳耀斑区的存在,海面的油膜在遥感影像上会发生明暗的变化。这对溢油的检测会产生严重的干扰。如何在海面太阳耀斑区准确地检测出溢油是目前溢油检测的难题。针对这一问题,本文利用Landsat7 ETM+多光谱影像数据,开展了基于卷积神经网络(CNN)的海面太阳耀斑区溢油检测方法研究。通过设置对照实验,对比支持向量机、最大似然、随机森林等分类方法,我们发现在相同实验条件下CNN模型的分类精度为95%～99%, Kappa系数为0.92～1,均高于其他三种分类方法,表明了CNN模型在海面太阳耀斑区溢油的检测具有更高的精度与一致性。     

Oil-Spill Monitoring in the Coastal Waters of Hong Kong and Vicinity

In this study, we applied the edge-detection method of oil-spill monitoring to extract oil-spill features observed by the ENVISAT Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) images over the coastal waters of Hong Kong and vicinity in northern South China Sea. Two examples in 2007 and 2008 over the coastal waters of the study area show that oil spills can be successfully detected by ASAR images at wind speeds around 4～ 6 m/s independent of wind direction. The study also shows that it could be helpful for evaluating the potential impacts of oil spills on the coastal environment in Hong Kong and vicinity.     

2011年6月-8月渤海湾溢油事故长期后报数值模拟

三维业务化溢油应急预报系统不仅能提供逐时的海洋环境信息预报和溢油漂移扩散,还能对溢油事件进行后报数值模拟。2011年6月4日在渤海湾蓬莱19-3B采油平台发生溢油事件,同月17日19-3C平台也发生溢油事件。此次溢油事故造成了数千平方公里海水受污染。本文采用国家海洋环境预报中心自主研发的溢油模型对蓬莱19-3溢油事件进行长期后报数值模拟,在风流海洋环境场的驱动下,模拟了2016年6月到2016年8月,两个平台溢油的漂移扩散情况、影响范围,靠岸时间和影响岸段等。风场采用基于WRF模型模拟得到的再分析风场,并用实测风对再分析风场进行订正,流场采用基于POM模式在再分析风场驱动下得到的海流。后报结果显示,溢油主要向西北方向漂移,并最终靠岸,其扫过的海域也主要在平台的西北方向,这与观测结果一致,验证了后报的可靠性。     

Transfer of fishing effort between areas and fishery units in Spanish fisheries as side effects of the prestige oil spill management measures

This paper shows how post-oil spill management measures can affect the general pattern of fishing effort exerted on two particular species of great commercial value in northern Spanish fisheries: anglerfish (Lophius piscatorius and Lophius budegassa) and mackerel (Scomber scombrus). Data time series of catches and fishing efforts were analysed corresponding to the area and time period affected by the oil spill fishing restrictions (December 2002–June 2003) and similar previous and post-spill periods. This was done to detect shifts that could be due to either the oil spill per se or the management measures taken to minimise pollution effects. Then, analyses and simulations with Arcview GIS module FAST (Fishing Activity Simulation Tool v. 1.1) were carried out with the aim of studying the fishing effort spatial distribution. Changes were observed in the Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE) of anglerfish and mackerel by area or fishery unit. Results show a spatial displacement of fishing effort to other fishing areas in the case of anglerfish, and the transfer of fishing effort between different fishery units in the case of mackerel. Although both effects were caused primarily by the management measures in force after the oil spill, they are considered side or collateral effects. The management measures that have to be taken after any disaster should also consider these kinds of ancillary effects as well as evaluating the likely positive or negative impact of these side effects.     

舟山海域溢油行为与归宿

研究舟山海域溢油污染的问题,选用"油粒子"追踪模式,在潮流计算的基础上模拟了海上溢油动态.将海上溢油油膜离散为大量油粒子,每个油粒子代表一定油量,在表层海流和风的作用下漂移,而油膜的扩展则通过油粒子的随机走动来实现.本文以柴油为溢油油种,选择静风高潮时、低潮时和不利风向情况下的低潮时作为溢油初始时间,对溢油漂移路径及扫海范围进行了预测.     

海洋石油平台溢油风险评价研究

通过层次分析法,系统分析了我国钻井平台及生产平台的溢油风险因子,初步建立了该类设施的溢油风险评价指标体系,并运用多级模糊综合评级模型对目标设施的溢油风险进行综合评价。利用该评价方法对渤海某一钻井平台进行溢油风险分析,结果表明该平台溢油风险等级较低,风险因子中海区环境及平台疲劳老化程度的风险相对突出。该评价方法可及时判断目标设施的溢油风险等级,为减少、预防各类平台溢油事故提供技术支持。     

Bohai Sea oil spill model: a numerical case study

An operational Bohai Sea oil spill serving module (BSOSSM) that can provide users with trajectory and movement information of the released oil is developed for the purpose of informing mitigation of oil spill incidents in the Bohai Sea, China. BSOSSM is one of the serving modules that had been integrated in China digital ocean prototype system, a marine information platform for managing, displaying and disseminating all the data investigated by China 908 Program. The oil spill trajectory is calculated by an oil spill model (OSM), which serves as a component in BSOSSM. The impacts of wind, current, as well as Stokes drift on oil spill trajectory are studied by sensitivity experiments conducted using OSM. Simulation results indicate that wind forcing is the most important factor in controlling the oil trajectory at the sea surface in Bohai Sea, whereas current and Stokes drift play relatively less important roles. However, because the direction of waves generally follows that of the wind, Stokes drift does lead to an increase in oil drift and spreading velocity. Case studies of the Penglai 19-3 oil spill incident (June 2011) and Xingang oil spill (April 2005) demonstrate that OSM can generally reproduce the oil spreading, and is therefore capable of supporting the emergency response of future oil spills in the Bohai Sea through BSOSSM.     

基于二维激光观测的溢油及其乳化过程散射模式研究进展

合成孔径雷达(SAR)以其高分辨率、能不受雨云影响实施全天时全天候全方位监测,在海面溢油灾害应急监测过程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。溢油是因为海面油膜抑制了毛细波和重力波,在SAR图像上呈暗斑而被识别。然而,海面溢油的乳化过程直接影响SAR对海面溢油后向散射截面的观测精度。本研究以物理海洋学和激光原理以及海面电磁散射理论为基础,通过实验利用激光扫描仪观测海面溢油粗糙度,分别与溢油特征参数、后向散射系数建立对应关系;耦合海面溢油参数与后向散射截面的关系,利用电磁散射数值建模方法,建立海面溢油散射模型,研究海面溢油乳化过程对微波后向散射截面的影响。本项目的研究将为SAR监测海面溢油量、溢油厚度及油品分布格局提供了可能;将进一步揭示海面溢油的散射机制,提高SAR海面监测溢油的精度和能力。     

全球变化对海洋渔业的影响及对策

人类行为引发的全球性捕捞过度、水体富营养化、气候温暖化和臭氧层被破坏等都地世界渔业产生极大的影响,而捕捞过度使鱼群抵御环境变化的能力降低,并直接破坏渔业资源,从而放大全球变化对海洋渔业的影响。水体富化造成的有害赤潮及鱼虾病害频发、往往给业,尤其是增养殖渔业带来巨大经济损失,温暖化引起的海水升温和盐度改变,不仅直接影响海洋生物的生理、繁殖及时空分布,而且通过对海平面、上升流、厄尔尼诺现象,珊瑚礁、信     

海洋溢油模型及其应用研究进展

根据滥油模型的数学计算理论不同,溢油模型主要有两个类型,欧拉-拉格朗日理论模型和蒙持卡罗方法模型。欧拉-拉格朗日理论模型主要包括:全动力轨迹模型和溢油归宿模型。溢油归宿模型又包括溢油扩展、扩散模型和风化模型。风化模型包括蒸发、溶解、乳化、光氧化、生物降解等过程。蒙持卡罗方法模型在欧拉-拉格朗日理论模型基础上增加了溢油扩散随机数的计算,应用随机数来计算油膜三维扩展尺度。该模型是对欧拉-拉格朗日理论模型的补充和完善。目前国内以及日本、美国、新加坡等国学者们分别在海湾,海峡等(?)了溢油组合模型。但由于他们的研究重点不同,模型没有得到全面的应用。溢油模型的前景相对可观,其与溢油应急反应专家系统的结合使得我们可以根据应急系统做出相应的应急计划,并通过模拟来对溢油损害索赔进行定量。     

海上溢油极化特征及其探测研究

The SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar) has the capabilities for all-weather day and night use. In the case of determining the effects of oil spill dumping, the oil spills areas are shown as dark spots in the SAR images.Therefore, using SAR data to detect oil spills is becoming progressively popular in operational monitoring, which is useful for oceanic environmental protection and hazard reduction. Research has been conducted on the polarization decomposition and scattering characteristics of oil spills from a scattering matrix using allpolarization of the SAR data, calculation of the polarization parameters, and utilization of the CPD(Co-polarized Phase Difference) of the oil and the sea, in order to extract the oil spill information. This method proves to be effective by combining polarization parameters with the characteristics of oil spill. The results show that when using Bragg, the oil spill backscattering machine with Enopy and a mean scatter α parameter. The oil spill can be successfully identified. However, the parameter mechanism of the oil spill remains unclear. The use of CPD can easily extract oil spill information from the ocean, and the polarization research provides a base for oil spill remote sensing detection.     

Three-dimensional numerical simulation for transport of oil spills in seas

This study extends previous two-dimensional research [Wang, S.D., Shen, Y.M., Zheng, Y.H., 2005. Two-dimensional numerical simulation for transport and fate of oil spills in seas. Ocean Engineering 32, 1556–1571] to three dimensions in order to investigate the vertical dispersion/motion of the spilled oil slick, which is a more realistic model of the motion of the spilled oil. To this end, a three-dimensional (3-D) model, based on the particle approach, is developed for simulating oil spill transport and fate in seas. The amount of oil released at sea is distributed among a large number of particles tracked individually. These particles are driven by a combination of water current, wave- and wind-induced speed and move in a 3-D space. Horizontal and vertical diffusion are taken into account using a random walk technique. The model simulates the most significant processes which affect the motion of oil particles, such as advection, surface spreading, evaporation, dissolution, emulsification, turbulent diffusion, the interaction of the oil particles with the shoreline, sedimentation and the temporal variations of oil viscosity, density and surface tension. In addition, the processes of hydrolysis, photo-oxidation and biodegradation are also considered in this model. The model has been applied to simulate the oil spill accident in the Bohai Sea.