Numerical study of a downslope windstorm in Northwestern Greece

This paper describes the leeside wind storm of 25–26 March 1998, the most intense wind storm of the last decade in Northwestern Greece. This wind storm produced wind gusts of  30 m s^− 1 that resulted in tree uprooting, roof damaging, electric power network disruption and flooding in the lake-side areas of Ioannina city in Northwestern Greece. With the aim to identify the role of Mountain Mitsikeli near the city of Ioannina on the windstorm and to investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for such orographically induced weather events, numerical simulations with MM5 model have been performed. The model results showed that a resolution of 2-km resolution is necessary in order to reproduce the localized character of the wind storm. The analysis revealed that a synergistic combination of the cross-barrier northeasterly flow, the stable layer above the mountain top and the presence of a critical level, led to the intensification of the lee side winds during the studied wind event. Sensitivity experiments with modified topography, further supported the important role of mountain Mitsikeli that stands as an isolated obstacle, on the modification of the wind field during the observed windstorm.     

Impact of land surface roughness on downslope windstorm modelling in the Arctic

The article considers the reasons for the underestimation of the wind speed by the WRF-ARW model when simulating downslope windstorms in the Russian Arctic. Simulation results for the Tiksi windstorm, for which sensitivity tests were carried out, appeared to be weakly dependent on the initial and boundary conditions, topography resolution, and boundary layer parameterization. Wind speed underestimation was mostly related to improper land use and the highly overestimated roughness length, which are used in the model. Reduction of the roughness length in accordance with the observations leads not only to a quantitative change in the wind speed in the boundary layer, but to qualitative changes in the dynamics of the flow. Wind underestimation in simulations with the overestimated roughness was caused by the jet stream unrealistically jumping over the lee slope and wake formation in the station area, while jet stream stayed near the surface and propagated to the station area in simulations with the modified roughness length. Modification of land use and roughness length in Tiksi and other regions where downslope windstorms are observed (Novaya Zemlya, Pevek, Wrangel Island) led to a decrease in wind speed modelling error by more than 2.5 times.     

重庆地区极端高温事件的模拟研究

该文使用了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气环流模式IAP AGCM4.1和中尺度数值模式WRF3.2建立的耦合模式(IWRF),利用该耦合模式对1982—2014年重庆夏季气候进行了试验,将模拟结果与NCEP/DOE再分析资料驱动WRF3.2(NWRF)的模拟结果进行了比较,并利用观测资料评估了这2个试验对于重庆极端高温事件的模拟能力。结果表明:(1)2个试验均能较为合理地再现重庆夏季地表气温的气候态特征,IWRF的模拟偏差较大,尤其对于高海拔地区。它们对极端高温事件的模拟存在较大偏差,对日最高气温最大值(TXx),两者的距平分布相似,对暖昼指数(TX90p)和热浪持续指数(HWDI),IWRF的表现好于NWRF。在西部和东南部地区,2个试验对暖昼指数都具有一定的模拟能力;(2)NWRF能够模拟出极端高温指数的年际变化特征,而IWRF表现欠佳;(3)它们都不能模拟出TXx的变化趋势,但是,NWRF能够模拟出HWDI和TX90p的增加趋势。该文的结论可为重庆短期气候预测系统用于极端高温的预测提供一定参考。     

Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks

We present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using nonlinear spatial correlations. This analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall, called event synchronization. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon (June–September). We furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps us in visualising the structure of the extreme-event rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last 6 decades.     

A numerical simulation of an observed lake breeze over Southern Lake Ontario

A time-dependent, two-dimensional primitive-equation atmospheric boundary-layer model has been applied to the South shore of Lake Ontario, using data obtained by Estoque et al. (1976).The model has correctly predicted the times of onset, maximum intensity and disappearance of the lake breeze. However, it underestimated the maximum inland penetration of the lake breeze, probably due to the fact that horizontal variations of surface potential temperature over the land had not been taken into account.     

A note on the temporal evolution of taylor columns over topography

The formation of two regions of vorticity, one cyclonic and one anticyclonic, after the initiation of flow is discussed. In particular, the linearized case of elongated topography is examined. The non-linear interaction of the two vortices, once formed, is discussed using a simple model.     

Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia

Climate Dynamics - As a typical arid and semi-arid area, central Asia (CA) has scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems that are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In...     

Numerical investigation of an extreme storm with the Canadian Regional Climate Model: the case study of windstorm VIVIAN, Switzerland, February 27, 1990

 The windstorm VIVIAN that severely affected Switzerland in February 1990 has been investigated using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). This winter storm was characterised by a deep cyclone in the North Atlantic and by strong geopotential and baroclinic north-south gradients in the troposphere over Western Europe resulting in high windspeeds in Switzerland. Our principal emphasis is to demonstrate the ability of the CRCM to simulate the windfield intensity and patterns. In order to simulate winds at very high resolution we operate an optimal multiple self-nesting with the CRCM in order to increase the horizontal and vertical resolution. The simulation starts with downscaling NCEP-NCAR reanalyses at 60 km with 20 vertical levels, followed by an intermediate 5-km simulation with 30 vertical levels nested in the former. The 5-km output is in a final phase used for initial and lateral conditions for a 1-km resolution simulation with 46 vertical levels. The multiple self-nesting in the horizontal is necessary to reach sufficient resolution to better capture the orographic forcing that modulates the atmospheric circulation at fine scales, whereas the vertical resolution enhancement helps to better simulate the boundary layer that modulates the windspeed along the surface and better represents the atmospheric circulation with a complex vertical structure (low-level jets, gravity waves and frontal features). It has also been found that the simulated temporal variability of the windfield and of most variables at the finer scales increases with the increasing nesting frequency. This indicates that as we progress towards finer scales in the horizontal, the vertical and the nesting frequency enhancement helps to simulate windspeed variability. However, the variability within the larger domain is limited by the archival frequency of reanalysis data that cannot resolve disturbances with time scale shorter than 12 h. Results show that while the model simulates well the synoptic-scale flow at 60-km resolution, cascade self-nesting is necessary to capture fine-scale features of the topography that modulate the flow that generate localised wind enhancement over Switzerland. Received: 6 July 2000 / Accepted: 13 February 2001     

太行山复杂地形下华北暖季极端降水的时空分布特征

基于2012—2021年5—9月华北五省的逐日降水资料和台站地形高度数据,统计分析了华北全区及各子区域极端降水事件的降水量及其强度和频次的时空分布特征;并运用地理加权回归(GWR)模型分析得到极端降水事件的降水量、强度及频次与海拔高度之间的关系。结果表明:1)华北区域极端降水量的时间变化均呈多波动特征且区域差异性显著,太行山以西高原和以东平原降水频次多、波动明显且强度较弱,太行山南段以南平原降水频次少、变化平缓而强度明显偏强。2)极端降水量的空间分布呈现南北少、中间多的型态分布,降水量大值区分别位于燕山东南侧和太行山南段晋冀豫三省交界处;极端降水高频站点主要聚集在晋东南地区;日最大降水量超过300 mm的站点主要集中在太行山脉和燕山山脉与华北平原的过渡地带。3)华北区域38°N以北,极端降水量、降水频次、强度和日最大降水量均随海拔高度的升高而减小;38°N以南,山西南部临运地区降水量随海拔高度的升高而显著增加。由于降水频次和强度与地形均存在正相关而导致,太行山附近降水量随海拔高度的升高而减小的贡献主要在于降水强度而非降水频次。     

Diurnal variations of rainfall affected by complex topography based on high-density observation in Chongqing over southwest China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Located in the eastern edge of the Sichuan Basin (SCB) in the southwest China, Chongqing is a mountainous region with typical complex topographic features....     

A wind tunnel boundary-layer simulation of wind flow over complex terrain: Effect of terrain and model construction

The report presents the results of a wind-tunnel study of the flow of the natural wind over complex terrain. A 1:4000 undistorted scale model of Gebbies Pass in the South Island of New Zealand was prepared and tested in the boundary-layer wind tunnel in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Canterbury.Three forms of construction, viz., terraced, contoured and roughness-added, were compared. Velocity and turbulence profiles, Reynolds stresses and spectra were measured, and correlation of results between different types of construction was calculated. The terraced form was much simpler to construct but was found to be unsatisfactory. The correlation between the contoured and roughness-added models was as high as 0.94, although the roughness-added model made a significant difference to the results in the lower 20%; of the boundary layer. The results of these tests will be compared with results from the field in a future report.     

Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013

Forecast Sensitivity of an extreme rainfall event over the Uttarakhand state located in the Western Himalayas is investigated through Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis (ESA). ESA enables the assessment of forecast errors and its relation to the flow fields through linear regression approach. The ensembles are initialized from an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ESA is then applied to evaluate the dynamics and predictability at two different days of the extreme precipitation episode. Results indicate that the precipitation forecast over Uttarakhand is sensitive to the mid-tropospheric trough and moisture fields for both the days, in general. The day 1 precipitation shows negative sensitivity to the trough over upstream regions of the storm location while in day 2, the sensitive region is found to be located over the southward intruded branch of the mid–tropospheric trough. Perturbations introduced in the initial conditions (IC) over the most sensitive region over the west of the storm location indicate significant variations in the forecast location of precipitation. IC perturbed experiments show that the perturbation amplitude is correlated linearly with predicted change in precipitation, which becomes nonlinear as the forecast length increases. ESA performed on convection-permitting ensembles show that precipitation over the Uttarakhand is mostly non-convective. However, when the location of the response function box is moved north-westward of the Uttarakhand, the sensitivity patterns show signs of convection.     

陆地气旋爆发性发展的动力学分析和数值试验

利用中国地面加密自动站观测资料、北京地区雷达探测资料、NCEP（1°×1°）FNL资料、ECMWF ERA Interim（0.125°×0.125°）逐日再分析资料等,对造成2016年7月19-20日华北极端暴雨中的低涡系统发展演变的结构特征和加强机制进行了研究。华北地区这次特大暴雨过程出现了3个阶段降水,其中与低涡系统强烈发展对应的第2阶段降水是本次华北暴雨过程的主要降水阶段。针对该低涡的分析表明：（1）850 hPa以西南低涡为中心的低压带中,在河南西北部新生低涡系统,并且其在向华北地区移动过程中显著加强,该低涡系统在空间结构上,从倾斜涡柱逐渐发展成近乎直立的、贯穿整个对流层的深厚低涡系统;（2）中低层低涡系统快速发展过程与高低空系统构成耦合作用有关：低层低涡系统显著加强之前,对流层上层（300-200 hPa）首先出现高空槽异常加深并向南发展,该高空槽发展的开始阶段与其本身冷暖平流造成的斜压发展过程对应;而后,随着高纬度平流层高位涡沿等熵面向南运动,造成华北地区对流层上层涡度增强,形成正位涡异常区;当这一正位涡异常区叠加在对流层中低层锋区上空时,造成对流层中低层气旋快速发展并向下伸展,诱发河南西北部的新生气旋;低涡系统的发展进一步强化了低空暖平流,促使低空气旋向东北方向发展\     

基于频谱补偿和数值模拟技术的江苏近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速研究

在平均风速基本满足近海风力发电需求的前提下,近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速的合理估算成为中国海上风电开发领域的研究热点。与低纬度海域台风极端风速的广泛研究不同,由于缺乏有效的技术手段,对于台风影响相对较少的中纬度海域,极端风速的科学认识明显不足。研究以江苏近海为例,通过频谱分析技术,定量刻画了数值模拟风速能谱在高频波段的能量衰减和截断特征;进而利用风速能谱曲线在频率域的积分及其在高频波段的补偿,实现无观测区域年最大风速的估算。与台风风场数值模拟技术相结合,综合考虑了中国中纬度海域受寒潮大风和热带气旋大风影响的复杂、特有气候特征,建立了一套可推广应用的近海大气边界层百米高度处极端风速估算的新方法。据此推算了江苏近海100 m高度处50年一遇的极端风速。结果表明:受寒潮大风影响,江苏北部海域的50年一遇风速超过40 m/s;少量北上的热带气旋则造成响水和如东附近海域40 m/s,甚至44 m/s以上的50年一遇风速;中部盐城附近海域的50年一遇风速则普遍低于35 m/s。研究成果不仅为该海域近海海洋工程的开发设计及安全运行提供重要的科学支撑,同时也有助于加深对中国极端气候事件的科学认识和大气边界层科学理论的发展。      

2018年北京\

利用2010—2019年自动气象观测站逐小时降水资料,分析了近10 a浙江省极端短时强降水（1 h雨量≥50 mm或3 h雨量≥100 mm的降水）的时空分布特征,结果表明：（1）浙江省每年约有极端短时强降水169.8 h,主要分布在暖季（5—10月）及午后（14—21时）,东部沿海（包括东南沿海和杭州湾）是高发带。（2）极端短时强降水主要始于5月,由浙南逐渐向浙北伸展,7—9月对应站点基本覆盖全境,而8月影响范围最大,对应有站点逐月年均频数峰值1.3 h·a^-1,位于东南沿海,月平均强度峰值99.1 mm·h^-1,位于杭州湾,10月及以后降水向东部沿海收缩,过程趋于结束。（3）极端短时强降水午后高发且强度增大,影响范围最广,并在17时有年均频数日变化曲线峰值,达17.4 h·a^-1,同时午后东南沿海高频站点密集,占全省高频站数的83.2%,杭州湾降水强度增加,50%以上的站点超过57.6 mm·h^-1。（4）地形地貌与极端短时强降水的空间分布关系密切,东南沿海处的海陆交界下垫面及喇叭口地形有助于极端短时强降水的发生,而杭州湾洋面向内陆伸展的喇叭口地貌对降水效率的提高有促进作用。

     

Characteristics of daily and extreme temperature over Canada

利用重庆34个自动站1991-2015年逐小时降水资料,分别从降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次、强降水事件、极大强降水及极端强降水阈值等方面分析了重庆时空分布特征。结果表明：（1）降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次、强降水事件、极大强降水及极端强降水阈值在空间分布上具有一致性,高值区主要分布在东南部与西部,低值区主要位于东北部与中部。（2）降水比率、强降水占比、强降水频次及极大强降水在年变化上表现出波动起伏特征,且降水比率相对变化幅度较小,后三者表现出同相位的变化特点。在月变化上,降水比率呈双峰特征,后三者一致呈单峰特征。在日变化上,强降水高频次主要出现在03-05时,低频次主要是13-15时。（3）在强降水事件持续性上,强降水事件持续时间及其降水开始至最强降水时间的空间分布一致：高值区主要集中在东北部与东南部,而低值区主要分布在中部与西部。总体上看,持续时间越长,产生最强降水的时间越延后,且持续时间长的强降水事件主要产生在23时至次日04时。（4）第99、99.5、99.9百分位阈值与广义极值（GEV）分布函数5、10、20、50、100 a重现期阈值及极大强降水观测值在空间分布上与强降水具有一致性。

     

基于多状态Markov链模式的极端降水模拟试验

文中建立了基于多状态一阶Markov链的逐日降水量随机模式式结合广义帕雷托分布(GPD)产生夏季逐日极端降水量的模拟资料,结果所显示的各种气候特征表明,绝大多数站点(尤其是中国东部多雨地区)都达到较高的精度.分析表明,该模式对中国东部极端降水特征的模拟能力在某些方面优于两状态一阶Markov链模式.对东部6个代表站模拟试验结果表明,月降水均方差、日降水极大值、月半均降水日数、日降水均方差、日平均降水量等指标与实况比较,均证明该模式对逐日降水量的模拟效果较好,基本模拟出降水量的各种特征.对中同东部78个代表站采用的两种模式模拟结果对比发现,除日平均降水量以外,月半均降水日数、日降水平均极大值都与实际观测结果较为一致,总体上优于两状态模式,说明用该模式在全国范围内模拟逐日降水特征尤其是极端降水特征有较高的町行性.例如,由其中6个代表站模拟资料所拟合的极端降水GPD模式具有较高的拟合优度.无论从门限值或重现期值来看都可发现模拟与实测结果有较好的相似性,且两者门限值的误差越小,重现期极值的差距也越小.证明Markov链模式对极端降水的模拟有广泛的适用性.     

On the nonlinear evolution of baroclinic instability over topography

A theory is presented for the nonlinear evolution of fluctuations in a zonal baroclinic shear flow over topography on a β-plane. It extends an earlier linearized theory on the same subject, which showed that unstable growth was possible for hybrid modes made up of a pair of primary modes with the same frequency but different wavenumbers, each stable in the absence of topography, but made unstable by topography with wavenumber that bridges the wavenumber gap between the primary modes. The slow evolution of the amplitudes of the hybrid modes can be expressed quite generally in terms of elliptic functions that fluctuate regularly between maximum and minimum values determined in a complicated way by initial amplitudes and parameters characterizing the primary modes. For small initial amplitudes, the evolution can be described in terms of even simpler function, i.e., trains of hyperbolic-secant pulses that recur with a period that depends on the logarithm of (the inverse of) the initial amplitude.Maximum fluctuation velocities comparable to, or even larger than, mean flow velocities can be achieved for disturbances of the scale of the internal deformation radius (typically 50 km in the oceans, 1000 km in the atmosphere), topography variations 10% of total fluid depth, and parameters typical of oceans and atmosphere.     

A regional climate change simulation over East Asia

In this study, regional climate changes for seventy years (1980–2049) over East Asia and the Korean Peninsula are investigated using the Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario via a high-resolution regional climate model, and the impact of global warming on extreme climate events over the study area is investigated. According to future climate predictions for East Asia, the annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.8°C and precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1 (2030–2049). The maximum wind intensity of tropical cyclones increases in the high wind categories, and the intra-seasonal variation of tropical cyclone occurrence changes in the western North Pacific. The predicted increase in surface air temperature results from increased longwave radiations at the surface. The predicted decrease in precipitation is caused primarily by northward shift of the monsoon rain-band due to the intensified subtropical high. In the nested higher-resolution (20 km) simulation over the Korean Peninsula, annual mean surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C and annual mean precipitation decreases by 0.2 mm day^?1. Future surface air temperature over the Korean Peninsula increases in all seasons due to surface temperature warming, which leads to changes in the length of the four seasons. Future total precipitation over the Korean Peninsula is decreased, but the intensity and occurrence of heavy precipitation events increases. The regional climate changes information from this study can be used as a fruitful reference in climate change studies over East Asia and the Korean peninsula.