过去 2ka气候变化研究进展

过去 2ka气候和环境变化是PAGES计划研究的核心内容之一。自该计划实施以来,各国科学家就近 2ka气候变化研究做了大量的工作,陆续召开了多次国际会议。介绍了研究的历史背景,然后从冰芯、树轮和历史文献三个方面回顾和评述了国内外近年来对过去 2ka气候和环境变化的研究现状,其中重点关注了中世纪暖期和小冰期在全球的空间表现特征。     

The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age from a sediment record of Lake Ebinur,northwest China

Ma, L., Wu, J., Yu, H., Zeng, H. & Abuduwaili, J. 2011: The Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age from a sediment record of Lake Ebinur, northwest China. Boreas, Vol. 40, pp. 518–524. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00200.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Lake Ebinur, Xinjiang, northwest China, is a closed‐basin, shallow lake that responds rapidly to changes in the ratio of precipitation to evaporation (P/E). A sediment record spanning the last 1500 years was obtained from the lake. We used δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in bulk carbonate, and δ¹³C of organic matter in the lake sediments to infer environmental changes in the Ebinur region during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Decreased δ¹⁸O values of carbonate largely reflect an enhanced P/E ratio within the basin and a higher lake level. Bulk carbonates with higher δ¹³C values are deposited during periods when lake‐water pH is high, while lower δ¹³C values reflect a lower pH in the water column. δ¹³C in organic matter is associated with the amount of precipitation. The results indicate that the Ebinur region experienced a dry MWP and a wet LIA, although the MWP and LIA were warm and cold periods, respectively, as expected. Furthermore, the MWP and LIA were hydrologically complex and cannot be characterized as uniformly wet or dry. Peak wet periods are recorded in the sediment core around AD 1000, 1400 and 1700, and a dry event also occurred in the period of temperature change within the LIA (cold to warm around AD 1500). A comparison of the Lake Ebinur data with proxy records for the strength of the Siberian High and climate proxy indicators suggests that precipitation in the Ebinur region was a consequence, in part, of an enhanced Siberian High during the LIA.     

Quantitative estimates of temperature and precipitation changes over the last millennium from pollen and lake-level data at Lake Joux, Swiss Jura Mountains

This paper presents quantitative climate estimates for the last millennium, using a multi-proxy approach with pollen and lake-level data from Lake Joux (Swiss Jura Mountains). The climate reconstruction, based on the Modern Analogue Technique, indicates warmer and drier conditions during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). MWP was preceded by a short-lived cold humid event around AD 1060, and followed by a rapid return around AD 1400 to cooler and wetter conditions which generally characterize the Little Ice Age (LIA). Around AD 1450 (solar Spörer minimum), the LIA attained a temperature minimum and a summer precipitation maximum. The solar Maunder minimum around AD 1690 corresponded at Joux to rather mild temperatures but maximal annual precipitation. These results generally agree with other records from neighbouring Alpine regions. However, there are differences in the timing of the LIA temperature minimum depending on the proxy and/or the method used for the reconstruction. As a working hypothesis, the hydrological signal associated with the MWP and LIA oscillations at Lake Joux may have been mainly driven by a shift around AD 1400 from positive to negative NAO modes in response to variations in solar irradiance possibly coupled with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.     

太白山最近1000年的孢粉记录与古气候重建尝试

秦岭太白山佛爷池最近1000年的孢粉记录及据此所重建古气候参数的时间序列,揭示了历史时期小冰期和中世纪温暖期的气候特征。小冰期的起止时间为1420-1920aAD。其1月与7月平均温度反映本区夏季风与冬季风的变化有很大的不一致性。小冰期开始时,冬季风突然增强,夏季风显示不稳定波动,并相对变弱,而降水一度增多。小冰期的结束是以冬季风逐渐减弱为先导,而夏季风呈突然增强势态,降水偏少。在中世纪温暖期中,1200-1340aAD发生快速气候波动,出现暖夏、冷冬等特征气候,成为历史上少见的灾害性气候时段。      

植硅体记录的敦化北部山地近2 ka泥炭沼泽演化气候背景

对敦化北部山地205 cm深泥炭剖面中的植硅体进行提取、鉴定和分析,结合AMS¹⁴C测年,重建研究区近2 ka的古气候环境过程,探讨其变化规律及影响因素。植硅体组合、有序聚类和植硅体指数变化趋势显示,研究区泥炭沼泽经历了4个显著阶段：即45-680 A.D.暖湿阶段;680-1340 A.D.温暖偏干阶段;1340-1870 A.D.由干转湿的寒冷阶段;1870-2017 A.D.转暖、干湿波动阶段。其中,680-1225 A.D.对应中世纪暖期（MWP）,1340-1870 A.D.对应小冰期（LIA）。在此气候变化背景下,泥炭沼泽发展经历了由缓慢逐渐加快的过程。对比太阳辐射和太阳活动的变化、石笋δ¹⁸O序列、重建的东北地区古温度以及Niño3.4重建曲线,泥炭剖面的植硅体分析显示MWP和LIA期间的古气候过程受到太阳活动、太阳辐射、季风环流和ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）的控制。     

Unstable Climate Oscillations during the Late Holocene in the Eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula

Core A9-EB2 from the eastern Bransfield Basin, Antarctic Peninsula, consists of pelagic (diatom ooze-clay couplets and bioturbated diatom ooze) and hemipelagic (bioturbated mud) sediments interbedded with turbidites (homogeneous mud and silt–clay couplets). The cyclic and laminated nature of these pelagic sediments represents alternation between the deposition of diatom-rich biogenic sediments and of terrigenous sediments. Sediment properties and geochemical data explain the contrasting lamination, with light layers being finer-grained and relatively rich in total organic carbon and biogenic silica content. Also, the high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) variations highlight distinct features: high MS values coincide with clastic-rich sections and low MS values correspond to biogenic sections. The chronology developed for core A9-EB2 accounts for anomalous ages associated with turbidites and shows a linear sedimentation rate of approximately 87 cm/10³ yr, which is supported by an accumulation rate of 80 cm/10³ yr calculated from ²¹⁰Pb activity. The late Holocene records clearly identify Neoglacial events of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Other unexplained climatic events comparable in duration and amplitude to the LIA and MWP events also appear in the MS record, suggesting intrinsically unstable climatic conditions during the late Holocene in the Bransfield Basin of Antarctic Peninsula.     

Use of the magnetic,geochemical, and sedimentary records in establishing paleoclimate change in the environment of Sebkha: Case of the Sebkha Mhabeul in southeastern Tunisia

In this study, we explored the evidence of late Holocene climate changes in southern Tunisia, examining extreme events of flood and sandstorm sedimentary succession records, in Sebkha Mhabeul. A sediment-derived climatic proxy was inferred from a 93.5-cm-deep core (Mh1), whose dating by tephrochronology has already been achieved in previous works. Multiple geochemical, sedimentological, magnetic susceptibility, and quartz grain microtexture proxies were used to determine the shifts in regional climatic conditions. The Sebkha core captured sensitive changes in the precipitation/evaporation (P/E) balance by adjustments in salinity, and is especially valuable for reconstructing variability over centennial timescales. The Sebkha Mhabeul area showed higher salinity during the Roman Warm Period (RWP: 2100–1400 cal yr BP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP: 1000–600 cal yr BP) and the present era, and generally lower salinity during the Dark Ages (DA: 1400-1000 cal yr BP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA: 600-200 cal yr BP).In southeastern Tunisia, the hydrological behavior was sometimes consistent with the flood activities in the eastern Mediterranean, and sometimes contemporaneous with the flood pulsations of the western Mediterranean.     

3500年来祁连山中段天鹅湖岩芯记录的沉积环境变化

湖泊沉积,特别是内陆高山封闭湖泊沉积是古气候研究的重要载体,可以高分辨率、敏感地记录连续的古气候环境变化。选取祁连山中段天鹅湖沉积岩芯TEB孔的10个陆生植物残体进行AMS 14C测年并建立年代框架,结合对总有机碳（TOC）含量、矿物成分及元素相对含量等指标的分析结果,重建了天鹅湖3 500年来的沉积环境变化特征。初步研究结果表明:碳酸盐含量变化主要受控于地下水补给量的变化,进而反映区域降水量,1 534 BC~1 300 AD期间,天鹅湖区降水呈减少的趋势,尤其是中世纪暖期（720~1 300 AD）,是3 500年来最干旱的时期;小冰期开始于1 300 AD,共出现三次降水较多的时期,1 600~1 730 AD为小冰期最盛期。受西风环流影响,天鹅湖沉积记录了该区域中世纪暖期相对暖干,而小冰期较为冷湿的变化特征。同时,该湖记录的小冰期气候相比于中世纪暖期更不稳定。     

云南北海湿地沉积物记录的过去2050年气候演化及对区域人类文明的影响

过去2 000年气候变化是深入了解过去全球气候演化机制、探索人类活动与环境演化相互关系的重要依据。我国西南地区是气候变化与人类文明研究的重要区域,获取更多记录资料对深入理解两者之间的相互关系尤为重要。本文以云南省腾冲县北海湿地沉积物为研究对象,利用AMS 14C测年建立年代学序列,利用烧失量、粒度分析结果建立了该地区过去2 050年气候演变序列。结果表明:2 050 cal. a B.P.~1 400 cal. a B.P.期间尤其是最后阶段气候寒冷干旱;1 400 cal. a B.P.~750 cal. a B.P.期间相对温暖湿润;750 cal. a B.P.~300 cal. a B.P.期间寒冷干旱;300 cal. a B.P.以来温暖偏湿。通过与云南地区人类活动记录对比发现,该地区人口的增长、社会政权的更替在一定程度上受自然气候环境演化的影响,南诏和大理民族政权的建立主要集中在相对温暖湿润的中世纪暖期;此外,云南地区近2 000年来人口数量的变化与气候变化同样呈现出较好的一致性。     

Climate changes inferred from integrated multi-site pollen data in northern Taiwan

In this study, we synthesized the fossil pollen data from 10 lake sediments and 2 land cores to integrate the alteration of forest covered areas in northern Taiwan with changes in humidity and temperature over the last 2000 years. The abundance of arboreal pollen, fern spores and Tsuga pollen in the pollen and spore assemblages were used as indicators. Our results suggested that the climate in northern Taiwan was stably cool and dry during 2000–1000 cal. yr BP, but changed to wet and warm during 1000–500 cal. yr BP, which corresponded to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). In addition, an increased density and dispersal of Tsuga pollen corresponding to 500–200 cal. yr BP was observed, which corresponded to the Little Ice Age (LIA). In recent years, a decline in Tsuga pollen density and increased fern spore density has been observed, which indicates an increase in temperature associated with elevated rainfall. Based on the synthesized data set, we conducted GIS mapping of such changes in the north of Taiwan over time. The results revealed that the temporal and spatial climate changes could be inferred from the palynological GIS mapping method, and that the fluctuations in temperature over time matched well with the global climate events, including MWP, LIA and recent warming.     

近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验

近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验是全球气候模拟研究的新领域,它不仅将现代器测资料与过去代用指标序列进行了有机的衔接,而且对过去百年和年代际尺度的气候变化可进行动力学解释,探讨其主要控制因素及其导致的区域响应差异。由于这类长积分模拟对计算机技术和气候模式本身的要求较高,目前能进行这类研究的国家为数不多。重点介绍了德国马普气象研究所的全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO G,以及利用该模式进行的千年长积分模拟试验结果。首先,应用全球120年的器测资料对模拟结果进行了检验,论证了该模型较强的气候模拟能力;其次,根据全球地表2 m气温的千年模拟结果,揭示了中世纪暖期—小冰期—20世纪暖期三段式气候变化时段,然后讨论了中世纪暖期和小冰期鼎盛期全球及中国的温度分布特点;最后根据对各控制因子的拟合分析与比较,初步揭示了近千年来的温度变化主要受太阳有效辐射的变化控制,而温室气体含量的增加对100年来温度的快速上升起着主导作用。      

Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations

A three-dimensional climate model was used to perform 25 simulations over the last millennium, which are driven by the main natural and anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared to available reconstructions in order to evaluate the relative contribution of internal and forced variability during this period. At hemispheric and nearly hemispheric scale, the impact of the forcing is clear in all the simulations and knowing the forced response provides already a large amount of information about the behaviour of the climate system. Besides, at regional and local scales, the forcing has only a weak contribution to the simulated variability compared to internal variability. This result could be used to refine our conception of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age (MWP and LIA). They were hemispheric-scale phenomena, since the temperature averaged over the Northern Hemisphere was, respectively generally higher/lower during those periods because of a stronger/weaker external forcing at that time. Nevertheless, at local-scale, the sign of the internal temperature variations determines to what extent the forced response will be actually visible or even masked by internal noise. Because of this role of internal variability, synchronous peak temperatures during the MWP or LIA between different locations are unlikely.     

Two millennia of glacier advances from southern Iceland dated by tephrochronology

Two glaciers at Eyjafjallajökull, south Iceland, provide a record of multiple episodes of glacier advance since the Sub-Atlantic period, ca. 2000 yr ago. A combination of tephrochronology and lichenometry was applied to date ice-marginal moraines, tills and meltwater deposits. Two glacier advances occurred before the 3rd century AD, others in the 9th and 12th centuries bracketing the Medieval Warm Period, and five groups of advances occurred between AD 1700 and 1930, within the Little Ice Age. The advances of Eyjafjallajökull before the Norse settlement (ca. AD 870) were synchronous with other glacier advances identified in Iceland. In contrast, medieval glacier advances between the 9th and 13th centuries are firmly identified for the first time in Iceland. This challenges the view of a prolonged Medieval Warm Period and supports fragmentary historical data that indicate significant medieval episodes of cooler and wetter conditions in Iceland. An extended and more detailed glacier chronology of the mid- and late Little Ice Age is established, which demonstrates that some small outlet glaciers achieved their Little Ice Age maxima around AD 1700. While Little Ice Age advances across Iceland appear to synchronous, the timing of the maximum differs between glacier type and region.     

Shallow-marine sediment cores record climate variability and earthquake activity off Lisbon (Portugal) for the last 2000 years

Sea Surface Temperature (SST), river discharge and biological productivity have been reconstructed from a multi-proxy study of a high-temporal-resolution sedimentary sequence recovered from the Tagus deposition center off Lisbon (Portugal) for the last 2000 years. SST shows 2 °C variability on a century scale that allows the identification of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA).High Iron (Fe) and fine-sediment deposition accompanied by high n-alkane concentrations and presence of freshwater diatoms during the LIA (1300–1900 AD) (Science 292 (2001) 662) suggest augmented river discharge, whereas higher total-alkenone concentrations point to increased river-induced productivity. During the MWP (550–1300 AD) (Science 292 (2001) 662) larger mean-grain size and low values of magnetic susceptibility, and concentrations of Fe, n-alkanes, and n-alcohols are interpreted to reflect decreased runoff. At the same time, increased benthic and planktonic foraminifera abundances and presence of upwelling related diatoms point to increased oceanic productivity. On the basis of the excellent match found between the negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the intensified Tagus River discharge observed for the last century, it is hypothesized that the increased influx of terrigenous material during the LIA reflects a negative NAO-like state or the occurrence of frequent extreme NAO minima. During the milder few centuries of the MWP, stronger coastal upwelling conditions are attributed to a persistent, positive NAO-like state or the frequent occurrence of extreme NAO maxima.The peak in magnetic susceptibility, centered at 90 cm composite core depth (ccd), is interpreted as the result of the well-known 1755 AD Lisbon earthquake. The Lisbon earthquake and accompanying tsunami are estimated to have caused the loss of 39 cm of sediment (355 years of record—most of the LIA) and the instantaneous deposition of a 19-cm sediment bed.     

Interactions of Arctic and Atlantic water-masses and associated environmental changes during the last millennium, Hornsund (SW Svalbard)

The fjords of southwestern Spitsbergen (European Arctic) are a climatically sensitive area neighbouring the mixing zone of warm northward-flowing Atlantic water-masses and cold Arctic Water. Owing to reasonably high accumulation rates, these settings are especially suitable for providing high-resolution sedimentary records of regional hydrological and environmental changes. A sediment core spanning the last millennium was retrieved from the outer Hornsund fjord basin, ¹⁴C dated and analysed for sediment grain size, ice-rafted debris (IRD), the distribution of benthic foraminifera and their oxygen and carbon stable isotope composition. The record of sub-centennial resolution reveals three distinctive periods: the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age (∼AD 1600–1900) and 20th-century warming. The marine record obtained is well correlated with regional high-resolution ice-core records as well as with atmospheric palaeotemperature reconstructions and sea-ice data. The colder periods stay in phase with the greater influence of less saline, cold Arctic Water indicated by subtle changes in benthic foraminifera assemblages and the δ¹⁸O signal, which is dominated by changes in salinity. The IRD record clearly indicates that tidewater glaciers were present in SW Spitsbergen throughout the last millennium, and most actively from the late 16th century until the end of the 19th century.     

Barrier island response to late Holocene climate events, North Carolina, USA

The Outer Banks barrier islands of North Carolina, USA, contain a geologic record of inlet activity that extends from ca. 2200 cal yr BP to the present, and can be used as a proxy for storm activity. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating (26 samples) of inlet-fill and flood tide delta deposits, recognized in cores and geophysical data, provides the basis for understanding the chronology of storm impacts and comparison to other paleoclimate proxy data. OSL ages of historical inlet fill compare favorably to historical documentation of inlet activity, providing confidence in the technique. Comparison suggests that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) were both characterized by elevated storm conditions as indicated by much greater inlet activity relative to today. Given present understanding of atmospheric circulation patterns and sea-surface temperatures during the MWP and LIA, we suggest that increased inlet activity during the MWP responded to intensified hurricane impacts, while elevated inlet activity during the LIA was in response to increased nor'easter activity. A general decrease in storminess at mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic over the last 300 yr has allowed the system to evolve into a more continuous barrier with few inlets.     

Climatic fluctuation in the Czech Lands during the last millennium

On the basis of documentary evidence, proxy-data and instrumental observations, the climatic fluctuation during the last millennium in the Czech Lands is analysed. According to narrative sources, the warmest period falls between the 1260s–1380s, documents for Lamb's (1984) Medieval Warm Epoch in 1150–1300 are missing. The prevalence of extremely cold and also rainy periods, as an expression of the Little Ice Age, is most conspicuous in the 15th century, in the 1590s and, with three interruptions, between the 1730s–1850s. Since the latter half of the 19th century a rising temperature trend has manifested itself. A regional climatic scenario for the model of global warming is discussed in relation to the observed trends in the Czech Lands.     

近千年来三个气候特征时期东亚夏季风的模拟对比

利用全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO-G的近千年连续积分资料,选取与降水关系较好的东亚夏季风指数,对不同气候特征时期的东亚环流及季风影响因子进行了探讨.结果表明用海陆热力差异定义的东亚夏季风指数Isun在年际尺度上较好地体现了长江流域及华北地区降水的变化,而利用850 hPa纬向风场定义的指数Iwang在年代际尺度上较好地体现了长江流域的降水变化.从不同气候特征时期的环流来看,中世纪暖期夏季风最强,东亚大陆降水明显偏多,现代暖期夏季风较之有所减弱,而小冰期则是夏季风最弱的时期,东亚大陆的降水明显偏少.不同气候特征时期夏季风指数与海温的相关表明,ENSO事件对东亚夏季风的影响在现代暖期有所增强,而与外部强迫因子的相关揭示出中世纪暖期有效太阳辐射变化是影响东亚夏季风变化的主要因子,现代暖期则是温室气体对夏季风的影响更重要.     

High-resolution patterns of palaeoenvironmental changes during the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula

A high resolution core(9.7 yr cm~(-1)) from the Chao de Veiga Mol raised bog(NW Iberian Peninsula) was analyzed to identify plant macrofossils,estimate peat humification and calculate hydroclimatic indices based on current bog species,with the overall aim of determining the climate conditions associated with evolution of the bog during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age.These proxies,together with historical and climate data,proved to be good indicators of the changes in bog surface wetness.Analysis:of the core led to identification of 9 different periods:two corresponding to the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly(930 to 1345 AD,1075-665 calibrated years before present [cal.yr BP]);four corresponding to the Little Ice Age(1345 to 1905 AD;665-105 cal yr BP);and three corresponding to the last century(1905 to2000 AD).The findings revealed a generally dry climate that lasted until the 14 th century,followed by a transition to a long period with a more humid,but characteristically very variable climate,which ended at the beginning of the 20 th century and was followed by a rapid transition to more humid conditions and finally,a change to drier conditions.The Medieval Climate Anomaly was indicated by the abundance of dry-adapted mosses(Leucobryum glaucum,Hypnum cupressiforme) and characterized by warm dry conditions and high levels of peat humification,with alternating wet phases.The LIA period was dated by a large abundance of Sphagnum species(an indicator of wetness) and a gradual increase in the humification index.However,four different climate phases were differentiated in this period.High-resolution reconstruction of the evolution of the CVM bog and the multiproxy approach have together enabled a more detailed identification of climatic variations in this area,which are generally consistent with the global models,as well as better definition of the elusive climatic oscillations in the last millennium and confirmation of the importance of local modulation of global models.The study provides new information and a detailed chronology of climatic events that will help to refine local modulation of the climate evolution model in the still quite unexplored region of the NW Iberian Peninsula,a key area for understanding the paleoclimatic dynamics in SW Europe.     

A comparison of evidence for late Holocene summer temperature variations in the northern hemisphere

Data on glacier, tree-line, tree-ring, pollen, and ice-core variations in North America, Greenland, and Europe during the last 2000 yr (up to A.D. 1800) are compared in detail on the century time scale. Only data that may be indicative of summer temperature changes are included, since these comprise most of the available paleoclimatic information, although some variations (especially of glaciers) may have been in response to precipitation changes instead. Radiocarbon dates and ¹⁴C-dated records are converted to calendar (dendrochronological) years using the calibration of M. Stuiver (1982, Radiocarbon 24, 1–26). Despite the basic uncertainties in dating, interpretation, response times, and “noise level” of proxy climatic data, there is at times good agreement among different kinds of evidence from within a region to suggest an episode of generally warmer or cooler summers. Three previously identified episodes find expression in records from all of the regions considered: the “Little Ice Age” of the last few centuries, a “Medieval Warm Period” around the 12th century A.D., and an earlier cold period some time between the 8th and 10th centuries. However, the timing of minima and maxima within these episodes seems to have varied from region to region (although the evidence is consistent within regions). In the 15th century, summers were warm in the eastern Canadian Arctic and southern Greenland while there was a cold episode in Europe and western North America.