Quantifying weather conditions for rock fall hazard management

Relationships between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences have been acknowledged in the past, but seldom have such relationships been quantified and published. Rock falls are frequent hazards along transportation corridors through mountainous terrain, and predicting hazardous rock fall periods based on weather conditions can enhance mitigation approaches. We investigate the relationship between weather conditions and rock fall occurrences along a railway section through the Canadian Cordillera. Monthly weather-rock fall trends suggest that the seasonal variation in rock fall frequency is associated with cycles of freezing and thawing during the winter months. The intensity of precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles for different time-windows was then compared against recorded rock falls on a case-by-case approach. We found that periods when 90% of rock falls occurred could be predicted by the 3-day antecedent precipitation and freeze–thaw cycles. Some rock falls not predicted by this 3-day antecedent approach occurred during the first two weeks of spring thaw. These findings are used to propose a rock fall hazard chart, based on readily available weather data, to aid railway operators in their decision-making regarding safe operations.     

Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca,Spain)

In the present work, spectral analysis has been applied to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles in long-term data series from different rainfall and gauging stations located in the Tramuntana Range, in the north-western sector of the island of Majorca. Climate signals recorded previously in the Mediterranean region have been identified: the ENSO, NAO, HALE, QBO and Sun Spot cycles as well as others related to solar activity; the most powerful signals correspond to the annual cycle, followed by the 6-month and NAO cycles. The incorporation of data derived from gauging stations contributes to better climate signal detection as local and exceptional influences are eliminated. Simulations have been performed for each rainfall/gauging station, using the most significant climate cycles obtained by means of the power spectrum. A good correlation between rainfall/flow values and simulated cycles has been obtained. The NAO and ENSO cycles are the most influential in the rainy periods, and specifically the NAO cycle, where a good correlation between episodes of high rainfall/flow and high values of ANAOI can be observed. At a second stage, landslides dated and recorded in the Tramuntana Range since 1954 (174 events) have been correlated with the simulated cycles obtaining good results, as the landslide events match rainfall peaks well. The correlation for the past decade (since 2005), when a detailed landslide inventory is available, also reveals a coincidence between landslide events and climate cycles, and specifically NAO and ENSO cycles. That is the case of the period 2008–2010, when numerous mass movements took place, and when the largest movement of the inventory was recorded. Results show a potential rainy period in the Tramuntana Range for the coming years (with maximum values around year 2021), when conditions similar to those related to the 2008–2010 event could take place again. The methodology presented in this work can contribute to the prediction of temporal, extreme hydrological events in order to design short-/medium-term mitigation strategies on a regional scale.     

Typical Soft–Sediment Deformation Structures Induced by Freeze/Thaw Cycles: A Case Study of Quaternary Alluvial Deposits in the Northern Qiangtang Basin, Tibetan Plateau

With the objective of establishing a distinction between deformation structures caused by freeze/thaw cycles and those resulting from seismic activity, we studied three well–exposed alluvial deposits in a section at Dogai Coring, northern Qiangtang Basin, Tibetan Plateau. Deformation is present in the form of plastic structures(diapirs, folds and clastic dykes), brittle structures(micro–faults) and cryogenic wedges. These soft–sediment deformation features(except the micro–faults) are mainly characterized by meter–scale, non–interlayered, low–speed and low–pressure displacements within soft sediments, most commonly in the form of plastic deformation. Taking into account the geographic setting, lithology and deformation features, we interpret these soft–sediment deformation features as the products of freeze/thaw cycles, rather than of earthquake–induced shock waves, thus reflecting regional temperature changes and fluctuations of hydrothermal conditions in the uppermost sediments. The micro–faults(close to linear hot springs) are ascribed to regional fault activity; however, we were unable to identify the nature of the micro–faults, perhaps due to disturbance by subsequent freeze/thaw cycles. This study may serve as a guide to recognizing the differences between deformation structures attributed to freeze/thaw cycles and seismic processes.     

Assessment of the Effects of Freeze–Thaw and Salt Crystallization Ageing Tests on Anahita Temple Stone,Kangavar, West of Iran

Building stone of Anahita Temple seriously suffers from weathering due to long term freezing-thawing and salt crystallization processes. This article investigates possible changes of physical and mechanical characteristics of this stone subjected to freeze–thaw and salt crystallization ageing tests. Fresh samples obtained from the Chelmaran quarry (the main quarry supplying for Anahita Temple stone) were tested under freeze–thaw and salt crystallization experiments. The freeze–thaw and sodium sulfate salt crystallization are suggested to be the most effective factors affecting in apparent deterioration of the stone in compare to the magnesium sulfate salt crystallization test. Significant decreases in mechanical properties of the stone were observed after freeze–thaw and salt crystallization tests. However, more mechanical losses were recorded after the salt crystallization cycles than the freeze–thaw cycles. This is probably due to crystallization pressure of salt crystals in compare to ice wedging force, which promoted more development of micro-fractures in the specimens. Probably, intrinsic factors of the stone such as frequent calcite veins and stylolites, are the main factors that control the durability of Anahita Temple stone. Preferential weakening along these features during freeze–thaw and salt crystallization cycles led to physical destruction and strength loss of the stone. Based on comparison between experimentally induced damages and field observations, reasonably freeze–thaw process is major factor in weathering of Anahita Temple stone. It should be noted that recorded 102 frozen days for the region imply high destruction potential of the stone during freeze–thaw cycles.     

Is the North Atlantic Oscillation reflected in Scandinavian glacier mass balance records?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the modes of climate variability in the North Atlantic region. The atmospheric circulation during the winter season in this region commonly displays a strong meridional (north–south) pressure contrast, with low air pressure (cyclone) centred close to Iceland and high air pressure (anticyclone) near the Azores. This pressure gradient drives the mean surface winds and the mid‐latitude winter storms from west to east across the North Atlantic, bringing mild moist air to northwest Europe. The NAO index is based on the difference of normalised sea‐level pressures (SLP) between Ponta Delgada, Azores and Stykkisholmur, Iceland. The SLP anomalies at these stations are normalised by division of each monthly pressure by the long‐term (1865–1984) standard deviation. Interannual atmospheric climate variability in northwest Europe, especially over Great Britain and western Scandinavia has, during the last decades, been attributed mainly to the NAO, causing variations in the winter weather over the northeast North Atlantic and the adjacent land areas. A comparison between the NAO index and the winter (December–March) precipitation between ad 1864 and 1995 in western Norway shows that these are strongly linked (correlation coefficient 0.77). Variations in the NAO index are also reflected in the mass balance records of glaciers in western Scandinavia. The NAO index is best correlated with mass balance data from maritime glaciers in southern Norway (e.g. Ålfotbreen R² = 0.51). The record of Holocene (last ca. 11 500 cal. yr) glacier variations of maritime glaciers in western Scandinavia is thus a proxy of pre‐instrumental NAO variations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

冻融条件TG固化剂石灰土基层性能研究

为了进一步研究TG固化剂石灰土在冻融条件下的各项性能, 分别对TG固化剂石灰土进行冻融作用前后的无侧限抗压强度试验和劈裂试验以及干缩试验. 结果表明: 随着冻融循环次数的增加, 无侧限抗压强度以及劈裂强度逐渐减小, 经历8次冻融循环以后强度衰减达到最大值. 经过冻融循环作用后试件的无侧限抗压强度以及劈裂强度残留值随着含水率和压实度的增加而增加, 通过冻融试验得到的抗冻性能指标BDR值在51%以上, 与未饱水冻融循环得到的最终残留强度值保持一致. 经冻融循环作用后TG固化剂石灰土的干缩应变和干缩系数减小, 干缩性能有所提高. 冻融循环条件下TG固化剂石灰土抗冻性能良好, 可以应用于路面基层.     

Experimental study on mechanical properties of granite after freeze–thaw cycling

It is important to understand the effect of freeze–thaw cycles on the mechanical properties of rocks. In this paper, the variation of the uniaxial compressive strength, peak strain, elastic modulus and stress–strain curves of granite subjected to freeze–thaw cycles with different heating temperatures were studied experimentally and the relationships were derived. As the number of freeze–thaw cycles increases, the compressive strength and elastic modulus decrease, while the peak strain decreases. In addition, an increased temperature increases the peak strain while decreasing the compressive strength and elastic modulus. An expression for the initial damage for the adopted rock material due to freeze–thaw cycling was proposed based on the Loland model. The current research has established a solid foundation for further experimental studies on the fatigue behavior of granite after freeze–thaw cycling.     

基于不同方法的中国天山山区降水形态分离研究

基于天山山区1950s-1979年27个气象站点的日平均气温及标注的各类型降水资料,运用频率求交法和概率保证法并结合海拔高程,研究并分析了各站点降水形态转化的临界气温及固液态降水分离的阈值温度空间分布特征及原因,预测了天山山区1980-2014年雪雨比变化。结果表明：天山山区各站点降水形态转化的临界气温及固液态降水分离的阈值温度其空间分布上整体呈现出北坡小于南坡而雪雨比南坡小于北坡的变化规律,且三者均随着海拔高程的增加而增大,两种方法获得的结果基本一致。深入明晰了天山山区降水形态随温度变化特征,为天山山区水文模型中有关参数的选取提供科学的参考。     

冻融循环作用下土体结构演化规律及其工程性质改变机理

寒区工程被破坏的最主要原因之一就是冻融循环作用,冻融循环过程可导致土的工程性质发生较大的变化,进而导致寒区工程设施产生变形,甚至失稳。对冻融循环作用下土的结构、基本物理性质以及力学性质进行了分析和总结。研究发现：冻融循环作用后土颗粒之间的原有结构被破坏,从而形成新的结构,土中团粒会发生分裂和团聚作用,团粒粒径向均一性趋势发展,并且在不同的内部及外部条件下,土会产生不同的构造;冻融循环后,土的渗透性增大,塑性指数减小。松散土和密实土的密度以及孔隙比具有不同的变化趋势,并且可使无湿陷性的黄土状土中大孔隙增加并产生湿陷性。土的力学性质变化趋势不一,一方面这与土的构造变化直接相关,另一方面冻融循环试验方法的不同也是引起研究结果差异性较大的重要原因。因此,需要建立冻融循环作用下土工程性质变异性的判定方法、评价及预测体系,而这些也可能成为未来研究工作的方向。     

Trends and the pole tide in Indian tidegauge records

This paper studies tidegauge records of stations on the Indian coastline. An analysis of trends did not reveal a monotonie trend. Trends were seen for limited periods at only five of the eight stations on the Indian coast. A spectral analysis of annual records produced evidence of long period cycles with shorter cycles riding on them. The shorter cycles had a period of 5.0 years. The spectra of monthly records revealed evidence of a pole tide and an annual cycle. The amplitude of the pole tide was estimated to be around 7.5 mm. This was larger than the equilibrium tide. A spectral analysis of monthly rainfall at Bombay, a station on the Indian west coast, also showed a 13.9 month cycle and a (3,1,0) autoregressive model. But the coherence between monthly rainfall and relative sealevel fluctuations was low.     

Annual soil CO2 efflux in a wet meadow during active layer freeze–thaw changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Soil CO₂ efflux from an ecosystem responds to the active layer thawing depth (H) significantly. A Li-8100 system was used to monitor the CO₂ exchange from a wet meadow ecosystem during a freeze–thaw cycle of the active layer in a permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. An exponential regression equation ( $ F_{\text{soil\, flux}} = 1.84e^{0.023H} + 5.06\,R^{2} = 0.96 $ ) has been established on the basis of observed soil CO₂ efflux versus the thawed soil thickness. Using this equation, the total soil CO₂ efflux during an annual freeze–thaw cycle has been calculated to be approximately 8.18 × 10¹⁰ mg C. The results suggest that freeze–thaw cycles in the active layer play an important role in soil CO₂ emissions and that thawed soil thickness is the major factor controlling CO₂ fluxes from the wet meadow ecosystem in permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It can be concluded that with active layer thickening due to permafrost degradation, massive amounts of soil carbon would be emitted as greenhouse gases, and the permafrost region would become a carbon source with a positive feedback effect on climate warming. Hence, more attention should be paid to the influences of the active layer changes on soil carbon emission from these permafrost regions.     

<Emphasis>H</Emphasis>ydrological variability of the <Emphasis>S</Emphasis>oummam watershed <Emphasis>(N</Emphasis>ortheastern <Emphasis>A</Emphasis>lgeria<Emphasis>)</Emphasis> and the possible links to climate fluctuations

The long-term variability of rainfall in the Soummam watershed (NE Algeria) has been analysed over the past 108 years using continuous wavelet method in order to identify the interannual modes controlling the rainfall variability. Statistical analyses of rainfall timeseries have shown its distribution following five periods of time, limited by a series of discontinuities around 1935, 1950, 1970 and 1990. The continuous wavelet transform have demonstrated different low frequency modes: 2–4, 4–8, 8–16 and 16–32 years.The annual band is expanded during the full study period with some pics around 1905, 1920–1935 and 1960; it shows a negative long-term trend, in particular since the period 1970–1990 when a major change has been identified. Then, the relationships between climate patterns of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the hydrological variability in the frequency domain have been investigated; they have shown a mean explained variance of 40 and 24 %, respectively. Such variances are less obvious for the annual mode and increase for the interannual frequencies. The coherence suffer from high perturbations since the period 1970–1990 when the NAO (SOI) shifts from negative (positive) phases to positive (negative) ones. Such anomalies are responsible for significant changes of rainfall variability, emphasising the global warming effects.     

A Study of the Impacts of Freeze–Thaw on Cliff Recession at the Calvert Cliffs in Calvert County,Maryland

The Calvert Cliffs, which form much of the western coastline of the Chesapeake Bay in Calvert County, Maryland, are actively eroding and destabilizing, yielding critical situations for many homes in close proximity to the slope’s crest. Past studies have identified that waves directly interacting with the slope toe control cliff recession; however, where waves do not regularly interact with the slope toe, freeze–thaw controls recession. This study investigated the validity of this second claim by analyzing the recession rate and freeze–thaw behavior of six study sites along the Calvert Cliffs that are not directly affected by waves. While waves do remove failed material from the toe in these regions, freeze–thaw is believed to be the dominant factor driving recession at these sites. Past recession rates were calculated using historical aerial photographs and were analyzed together with a number of other variables selected to represent the freeze–thaw behavior of the Calvert Cliffs. The investigation studied sixteen independent variables and found that over 65 % of recession at these study sites can be represented by freeze–thaw through the following variables: (1) slope aspect, (2) soil freeze–thaw susceptibility, (3) the number of freeze–thaw cycles, and (4) the weighted shear strength. Future mitigation techniques at these sites should focus on addressing these variables. Unmitigated, the Calvert Cliffs will continue to recede until a stable slope angle is reached and maintained.     

Physical weathering of building stones induced by freeze–thaw action: a laboratory long-term study

Damages to natural building stones induced by the action of frost are considered to be of great importance. Commonly, the frost resistance of building stones is checked by standardised freeze–thaw tests before using. Corresponding tests normally involve 30–50 freeze–thaw action cycles. In order to verify the significance of such measurements, we performed long-term tests on four selected rocks over 1,400 freeze–thaw action cycles. Additionally, numerous petrophysical parameters were analysed to compare the behaviour of rocks in the weathering tests according to the current explanatory models of stress formation by growing ice crystals in the pore space. The long-term tests yield more information about the real frost sensibility of the rocks. A clear deterioration cannot be determined in most cases until 50 weathering cycles have been completed. In the freeze–thaw tests, the samples are also stressed by changing temperature and moisture, indicating that different decay mechanisms can interfere with each other. Thus, thermohygric and moisture expansion are important damage processes.     

冻融循环对固化铅污染土强度与孔隙特征影响的试验研究

水泥基固化剂封闭是近年来重金属污染修复治理的主要技术手段之一。冻融循环作用是影响水泥固化重金属污染土力学特性的重要外营力。本文以人工制备的铅污染土为研究对象,结合冻融实验和室内土工试验,研究冻融循环作用对铅污染土无侧限抗压强度的影响。结果表明:随着水泥掺量的增大,水泥固化铅污染土的无侧限抗压强度增大,破坏应变减小;随着铅离子掺量的增大（污染程度升高）,水泥固化铅污染土的无侧限抗压强度q_u降低,应力-应变曲线变化趋势更加相似;水泥固化铅污染土的无侧限抗压强度q_u随冻融频次的增大而降低;相同冻融频次条件下,随着水泥掺量的增加,水泥固化铅污染土的无侧限抗压强度q_u损失率降低。基于SEM图像对固化铅污染土进行微观结构定量分析,表明随着冻融次数的增加,试样中细颗粒（< 1 μm）和细孔隙（< 2 μm）所占比例均提高。冻融作用对土体结构的破坏可能是导致土样无侧限抗压强度q_u降低的主要原因。     

Experimental investigations on the elastic parameters and uniaxial compressive strength of slate under freeze–thaw cycles

ABSTRACT

In this study, uniaxial compression experiments with seven different bedding angles and six numbers of freeze–thaw cycles were conducted to investigate the influences of freeze–thaw cycles on the elastic parameters and the uniaxial compressive strength of slate. The laws of the elastic parameters, uniaxial compressive strength and failure characteristics were analysed, and a new uniaxial compressive strength prediction model that considers the bedding angle and the number of freeze–thaw cycles as control variables was established and verified using the experimental data. The results showed that the uniaxial compressive strength, elastic modulus and shear modulus decreased exponentially with an increasing number of freeze–thaw cycles. However, the Poisson’s ratio increased linearly with an increasing number of freeze–thaw cycles. The uniaxial compressive strength initially decreased and then increased with increasing bedding angle. There are three forms of failure occurred during the tests: when the bedding angle was 0°≤β ≤ 26.6°, the splitting failure and shear failure occurred at the same time; when the bedding angle was 26.6°≤β ≤ 83.0°, sliding failure occurred along the bedding plane; and when the bedding angle was 83.0°≤β ≤ 90°, splitting failure occurred along the axial direction of sample.     

Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies

Analysis of two continuous, high‐resolution palaeo‐flood records from southern Norway reveals that the frequency of extreme flood events has changed significantly during the Holocene. During the early and middle Holocene, flood frequency was low; by contrast, it was high over the last 2300 years when the mean flood frequency was about 2.5–3.0 per century. The present regional discharge regime is dominated by spring/summer snowmelt, and our results indicate that the changing flood frequency cannot be explained by local conditions associated with the respective catchments of the two lakes, but rather long‐term variations of solid winter precipitation and related snowmelt. Applying available instrumental winter precipitation data and associated sea‐level pressure re‐analysis data as a modern analogue, we document that atmospheric circulation anomalies, significantly different from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), have some potential in explaining the variability of the two different palaeo‐flood records. Centennial‐scale patterns in shifting flood frequency might be indicative of shifts in atmospheric circulation and shed light on palaeo‐pressure variations in the North Atlantic region, in areas not influenced by the NAO. Major shifts are found at about 2300, 1200 and 200 years ago (cal. a BP). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interactions between freeze–thaw actions,wind erosion desertification,and permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The unique natural environment of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has led to the development of widespread permafrost and desertification. However, the relationship between desertification and permafrost is rarely explored. Here we study the interaction between desertification and permafrost using a combination of simulations, experiments, and field observations in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Results show the cohesion values of the test samples that experienced 1, 3, and 6 freeze–thaw cycle times decreased by 65.9, 46.0, and 35.5 %, respectively, and the compressive strength of the test samples decreased by 69.6, 39.6, and 34.7 %, respectively, compared to the test samples that did not experience freeze–thaw cycles. The wind erosion rate of the test block eroded by sand-bearing wind was far larger than that by clean wind under the same conditions; the maximum value was 50 times higher than that by clean wind. The wind erosion rate increased with an increasing number of freeze–thaw cycles, water content, and freeze–thaw temperature difference. The ground temperature below the sand layer was decreased, compared to the natural ground surface that without sand layer covering, the drop amplitude of yearly average temperature was roughly maintained at 0.2 °C below the thick sand layer (1.2 m), and the maximum drop of yearly average temperature was 0.7 °C below the thin sand layer (0.1 m). Therefore, with the presence of water, the destruction of surface soil structure caused by repeated and fierce freeze–thaw actions is the main cause of wind erosion desertification in the permafrost region of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, and sand-bearing wind is the main dynamic force. The development of eolian sand deposits after the desertification emerges. As a result, the properties of the underlying surface are altered. Due to the high reflectivity and poor heat conductivity of the sand layer, the heat exchange of the land–atmosphere system is impeded, causing a drop in the ground temperature of the underlying permafrost that subsequently preserves the permafrost.     

Damage Characteristics of Altered and Unaltered Diabases Subjected to Extremely Cold Freeze–Thaw Cycles

Altered and unaltered diabases are commonly deposited on hydrothermally mineralized slopes. To study their damage characteristics during freeze–thaw cycles, they were sampled from Cihai iron ore mine located in an extremely cold region, Xinjiang, China and examined using acoustic and X-ray diffraction experiments to analyze the differences in their main mineral components and explore their damage characteristics under freeze–thaw conditions. Based on the results of these experiments, their damage and degradation patterns were obtained and the evolution of their physical characteristics including the rock mass loss rate (L _F), rock strength loss rate (R _σ ), P-wave velocity loss rate (V _l), and freeze–thaw coefficient (K _f) was analyzed. In addition, two groups of equations were established to characterize the relationships of these physical and mechanical properties of the rock specimens with the number and temperature of freeze–thaw cycles. The results show that the mineral composition of diabase changes during its alteration, showing increased clay and calcite, and the degradation and evolution patterns of the physical and mechanical parameters (L _F, R _σ , V _l, and K _f) of the altered rocks during freeze–thaw cycles are different from those of diabase, with the altered diabase exhibiting greater damage than the diabase.     

Meteorological factors affecting the speed of movement and related impacts of extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast

The speeds of historical cool-season extratropical cyclones along the U.S. east coast, hereafter East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS), occurring during the period from 1951 to 2006 were computed. Average storm speed was 13.8 ms⁻¹ with stronger storms generally moving faster than weaker storms and faster storms forming during the midwinter months (December–March). There was no clear trend in ECWS speed during the time period, although considerable season-to-season variability was present. The monthly and seasonal variations in storm speed could not be attributed to the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) alone. However, the speed of ECWS was considerably slower when both El Ni?o and the negative phase of NAO occurred simultaneously. Characteristic patterns in the upper levels of the atmosphere, specifically 300 hPa zonal winds and 500 hPa geopotential heights, were present during periods when ECWS speeds were among the slowest (and separately fastest). For slow storm speed, these patterns also prevailed during months in which El Ni?o and negative NAO phase occurred. These patterns were also present during months with extended runs of high oceanic storm surge. This provides a qualitative link between the atmospheric conditions associated with slow storms and potentially high coastal storm surge impacts. Among the prime consequences of ECWS speed are extended periods of high storm surge, mainly due to slow-moving storms. The sustained high tidal levels often lead to substantial damage caused by coastal flooding, overwash, and beach erosion.