Forecast of the solar wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field radial component polarity at the phase of decay of solar cycle 23

The solar wind velocity and polarity of the B _x-component of the interplanetary magnetic field have been analyzed for the first eight months of 2005. The interplanetary magnetic field had a four-sector structure, which persisted during nine Carrington rotations. Three stable clusters of a high-speed solar wind stream and one cluster of a low-speed stream were observed during one solar rotation. These clusters were associated with the interplanetary magnetic field sectors. The predicted solar wind velocity was calculated since July 2005 one month ahead as an average over several preceding Carrington rotations. The polarity of the B _x-component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predicted in a similar way based on the concept of the sector structure of the magnetic field and its relation to maxima of the solar wind velocity. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement of the forecast for two rotations ahead in July–August 2005 and pronounced violation of agreement for the next rotation due to a sudden reconfiguration of the solar corona and strong sporadic processes in September 2005.     

The correlation between geomagnetic disturbances and topology of quasi-open structures in the solar magnetic field

Results of photospheric magnetic field extrapolation in a potential approximation and of the technique for separating the open part of magnetic flux have revealed that changes in the relationship between the open part of the south polarity magnetic flux obtained in the chromosphere and corona from July to November 2006 correlate with variations in the Akasofu parameter calculated from data on the solar wind parameters and interplanetary magnetic field at Lagrange point L1, and with the K _p index.     

Cosmic-ray vector anisotropy and local characteristics of the interplanetary medium

Variations in the cosmic-ray vector anisotropy observed on Earth are closely connected with the state of the near-Earth interplanetary medium. Hourly characteristics of vector anisotropy for the period 1957–2013, which were obtained by the global survey method from the data of the worldwide network of neutron monitors, make it possible to study the relationship between the cosmic-ray anisotropy and solar wind parameters. In the present work, we have studied the connection between the equatorial component of anisotropy of cosmic rays with a rigidity of 10 GV and the following parameters: velocity and density of the solar wind; density of the interplanetary magnetic field; and cosmic-ray density variations, in which the spatial gradient of cosmic rays in the interplanetary medium is manifested. The characteristics of cosmic-ray anisotropy at various combinations of the interplanetary medium parameters are compared. The possibility of diagnosing the solar wind state from data on the cosmic-ray anisotropy is discussed.     

The influence of the interplanetary medium on SuperDARN radar scattering occurrence

The effects of the characteristics of the interplanetary medium on the radar scattering occurrence, related to the whole array of SuperDARN radars installed in the Northern Hemisphere, have been studied over a two-year period. Statistically significant correlations of the variation of the scattering occurrence are found with the merging electric field and with the negative B_z component of the interplanetary magnetic field, independent of the seasonal period considered. This result demonstrates that the merging rate (and in particular the reconnection process) between the interplanetary magnetic field and the magnetosphere is a relevant factor affecting the occurrence of scattering. For comparison, we note that no statistically significant correlations are obtained when the interplanetary ion density or the solar wind speed are considered, although also these variables affect to a small degree the scattering occurrence variation. The study of the latitudinal and magnetic local time dependence of the observations shows an association between the considered correlation and the location of the auroral oval and the cusp/cleft region.     

Calculation of the interplanetary magnetic field based on its value in the solar photosphere

The difficulties associated with calculating the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from solar magnetic data have been considered. All conventional calculation patterns and available input databases have been analyzed from a unified standpoint. It has been shown that these assumptions and limitations cannot affect the general structure and dependence on cycle of solar and interplanetary data. At the same time, the measured solar field values are underestimated as a result of the magnetograph signal saturation effect. It has been shown that the correction should depend on the heliocentric observation latitude and cycle phase. The correction method responsible for good agreement between the calculated and measured values has been proposed. The created database makes it possible to quantitatively calculate the magnetic fields in the solar wind near the Earth.     

Magnetic flux evolution inside and outside a polar coronal hole based on data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)

This paper presents the analysis results of the magnetic flux inside and outside a polar coronal hole in the north during the period August 1?C2, 2010. The location of the polar coronal hole is determined from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) images in the Fe XII, XXIV (193 ?) line, obtained by an Atmospheric Imager Assembly (AIA) of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Magnetic data are represented by the line-of-sight component of the magnetic field strength, measured with an Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). Both data sets are sampled at an interval of 720 s and are remapped onto a Carrington coordinate grid with a resolution of 0.001 in sine latitude and 0.1 degree in longitude. The preliminary results show a magnetic flux of the new cycle??s polarity (positive polarity in the north) appearing inside the coronal hole on a time scale of several hours. This ??new flux?? does not correlate with the magnetic flux of the old solar cycle (negative polarity in the north).     

Determination of the running quiet daily geomagnetic variation

A new automatic running method for derivation of the quiet daily geomagnetic variation—“quiet day curve” (QDC) is described. The method consists in the automatic distinction of the quietest periods using the geomagnetic variations parameterization, calculation of the proper quiet daily variation for certain days, reconstruction of QDC for each day of the elapsed period and extrapolation of QDC for the subsequent period. The method ensures statistically reliable QDCs during the epoch of the solar activity maximum if the time interval used for derivation of QDC is not less than 30 days. The method of the running QDC calculation implies the uninterrupted calculation of the QDC resulting from the continuous 1-day forward shift of the 30-day interval. The method makes it possible to derive automatically and on-line the quiet daily variation in the polar caps, where northward interplanetary magnetic field can generate large magnetic disturbances during periods of planetary magnetic quiescence. This is the main advantage of the running QDC method over other known methods. It is shown that along with the seasonal (from month to month) and the solar cycle (from year to year) changes, the QDC amplitude is modified on a time scale less then a month following solar activity flashes.     

Specific features of the rigidity spectrum of Forbush effects

We analyze variations in the rigidity spectrum of primary cosmic rays during Forbush effects recorded in cycles 20–24 of solar activity on the basis of data from the global network of neutron monitor stations processed by global survey. We investigate variations in the rigidity spectrum index of Forbush effects as a function of the solar activity level, phases of the effect, polarity the total magnetic field of the Sun, type and parameters of the source of cosmic ray modulation, etc. Comprehensive analysis of our results revealed regularities in the dynamics of the energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays that reflect the dynamic processes occurring in the interplanetary space.     

用三维运动学模式研究太阳暗条消失与行星际扰动

本文用19个行星际扰动事件为样本,采用三维运动学模式研究暗条消失事件（简称FD事件）与行星际瞬变扰动间的关系．太阳上的扰动源取行星际扰动前2-5d以内的所有FD事件,用势场模式计算得到的源表面磁场为背景,模拟每个扰动在行星际中的传播及其相互作用过程,观察扰动到达地球的时间和扰动大小．从模拟的结果来看,FD事件与行星际扰动事件有较好的对应关系,说明FD事件是行星际瞬变事件的一类重要的太阳源．19个事件中有2个没有对应的FD事件,5个模拟结果与观测结果相差较大,其余12个模拟结果与实际观测符合很好．这与过去这方面的工作有所不同,我们具体模拟了每个扰动事件的传播过程,同时考虑了扰动间的相互作用,包括扰动与共转流之间的相互作用,为太阳-行星际-地磁链天气过程的预报奠定了基础．     

Cosmic ray geomagnetic cutoff rigidities in the magnetic field of two empirical models during a strong disturbance in November 2003: A comparison of models

Cosmic ray (CR) fluxes, which penetrate into the Earth??s magnetosphere and atmosphere from the interplanetary space, are an important factor of space weather. The geomagnetic field allows or forbids CR particles to enter into a given point in the magnetosphere depending on their energy. The geomagnetic cutoff rigidity regulates the distribution of CR fluxes in the magnetosphere. The geomagnetic cutoff rigidity (geomagnetic threshold) determination accuracy is closely related to the accuracy of the magnetospheric model used in calculations. Using a method for tracing of charged CR particle trajectories in the magnetic field of a model magnetosphere, we obtained geomagnetic thresholds for two magnetosphere empirical models (Ts01 and Ts04), constructed based on the same initial database. The Ts01 model describes the middle magnetosphere for certain conditions in the solar wind and interplanetary field. The Ts04 model pays the main attention to describing the large-scale evolution of magnetospheric currents during a storm. The theoretically obtained geomagnetic thresholds have been compared with experimental thresholds, calculated using the spectrographic global survey method based on data from the global network of CR stations. The study has been performed for the period of a strong geomagnetic storm that occurred in November 2003.     

The structure and origin of magnetic clouds in the solar wind

Plasma and magnetic field data from the Helios 1/2 spacecraft have been used to investigate the structure of magnetic clouds (MCs) in the inner heliosphere. 46 MCs were identified in the Helios data for the period 1974–1981 between 0.3 and 1 AU. 85% of the MCs were associated with fast-forward interplanetary shock waves, supporting the close association between MCs and SMEs (solar mass ejections). Seven MCs were identified as direct consequences of Helios-directed SMEs, and the passage of MCs agreed with that of interplanetary plasma clouds (IPCs) identified as white-light brightness enhancements in the Helios photometer data. The total (plasma and magnetic field) pressure in MCs was higher and the plasma- lower than in the surrounding solar wind. Minimum variance analysis (MVA) showed that MCs can best be described as large-scale quasi-cylindrical magnetic flux tubes. The axes of the flux tubes usually had a small inclination to the ecliptic plane, with their azimuthal direction close to the east-west direction. The large-scale flux tube model for MCs was validated by the analysis of multi-spacecraft observations. MCs were observed over a range of up to 60° in solar longitude in the ecliptic having the same magnetic configuration. The Helios observations further showed that over-expansion is a common feature of MCs. From a combined study of Helios, Voyager and IMP data we found that the radial diameter of MCs increases between 0.3 and 4.2 AU proportional to the distance, R, from the Sun as R^0.8 (R in AU). The density decrease inside MCs was found to be proportional to R^–2.4, thus being stronger compared to the average solar wind. Four different magnetic configurations, as expected from the flux-tube concept, for MCs have been observed in situ by the Helios probes. MCs with left-and right-handed magnetic helicity occurred with about equal frequencies during 1974–1981, but surprisingly, the majority (74%) of the MCs had a south to north (SN) rotation of the magnetic field vector relative to the ecliptic. In contrast, an investigation of solar wind data obtained near Earths orbit during 1984–1991 showed a preference for NS-clouds. A direct correlation was found between MCs and large quiescent filament disappearances (disparition brusques, DBs). The magnetic configurations of the filaments, as inferred from the orientation of the prominence axis, the polarity of the overlying field lines and the hemispheric helicity pattern observed for filaments, agreed well with the in situ observed magnetic structure of the associated MCs. The results support the model of MCs as large-scale expanding quasi-cylindrical magnetic flux tubes in the solar wind, most likely caused by SMEs associated with eruptions of large quiescent filaments. We suggest that the hemispheric dependence of the magnetic helicity structure observed for solar filaments can explain the preferred orientation of MCs in interplanetary space as well as their solar cycle behavior. However, the white-light features of SMEs and the measured volumes of their interplanetary counterparts suggest that MCs may not simply be just H-prominences, but that SMEs likely convect large-scale coronal loops overlying the prominence axis out of the solar atmosphere.     

A search for north-south asymmetry of interplanetary magnetic field and solar plasma

An analysis of interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and plasma data taken near 1 AU during solar activity cycle 21 reveals the following. 1. The yearly averaged spiral angle shows a solar cycle dependence. 2. The spiral angle north of the current sheet is 2.4○ higher than south of it during both epochs of positive and negative polarities. 3. The included angle is 4.8○ higher during the epoch of positive polarity than during the epoch of negative polarity. 4. The asymmetries in the number of away and toward IMF days are correlated with the asymmetries in solar activity. 5. The solar plasma north of the current sheet is hotter, faster and less dense than south of it during the epoch of negative polarity. 6. An asymmetry in the averaged filed magnitude is absent for solar cycle 21.     

Two-dimensional electric field measurements in the ionospheric footprint of a flux transfer event

Line-of-sight Doppler velocities from the SuperDARN CUTLASS HF radar pair have been combined to produce the first two-dimensional vector measurements of the convection pattern throughout the ionospheric footprint of a flux transfer event (a pulsed ionospheric flow, or PIF). Very stable and moderate interplanetary magnetic field conditions, along with a preceding prolonged period of northward interplanetary magnetic field, allow a detailed study of the spatial and the temporal evolution of the ionospheric response to magnetic reconnection. The flux tube footprint is tracked for half an hour across six hours of local time in the auroral zone, from magnetic local noon to dusk. The motion of the footprint of the newly reconnected flux tube is compared with the ionospheric convection velocity. Two primary intervals in the PIFs evolution have been determined. For the first half of its lifetime in the radar field of view the phase speed of the PIF is highly variable and the mean speed is nearly twice the ionospheric convection speed. For the final half of its lifetime the phase velocity becomes much less variable and slows down to the ionospheric convection velocity. The evolution of the flux tube in the magnetosphere has been studied using magnetic field, magnetopause and magnetosheath models. The data are consistent with an interval of azimuthally propagating magnetopause reconnection, in a manner consonant with a peeling of magnetic flux from the magnetopause, followed by an interval of anti-sunward convection of reconnected flux tubes.     

行星际扰动对地磁活动的影响

利用第23太阳活动周中WIND和ACE资料,统计分析行星际扰动对不同水平地磁活动的影响,研究磁暴强度与不同行星际参数之间的相关性,结果发现:①从长期来看,地磁活动指数Dst与太阳风速度的相关性最好,相关性在太阳活动谷年时最高;②多磁暴时序叠加结果证实了导致小、中、强磁暴开始的经验行星际南向磁场条件,磁暴过程中行星际磁场...     

日面方位磁场扰动和行星际磁场螺旋结构

文采用球坐标下2.5维理想MHD模型,对日球子午面内方位磁场扰动的传播进行数值模拟,重点分析它对行星际磁场螺旋角的影响. 本文认为,观测到的行星际磁场螺旋角大于Parker模型的预言值,是太阳表面不断向行星际发出同向方位磁场扰动的结果;太阳较差自转在太阳内部产生的方位磁场为这类扰动提供了源头. 模拟结果表明,采用持续时间等于周期的十分之一、扰动幅度为103nT量级的正向方位磁场扰动,就可使1 AU处行星际磁场的螺旋角增加2°左右,与有关观测结果相符. 模拟结果还表明,上述方位磁场扰动对日球子午面内的太阳风特性和磁场位形的影响基本上可以忽略.     

IMP 8 magnetosheath field comparisons with models

This study presents cross-sectional vector maps of the magnetic field derived from IMP 8 magnetometer in the magnetosheath at 30 R_e behind the Earth. In addition the vector patterns of the magnetosheath field for northward, southward, and east-west interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directions are qualitatively compared with those obtained from the Spreiter-Stahara gas dynamic (GD) and Fedder-Lyon magnetohydrodynamic models (MHD). The main purpose is to display the cross-sectional differences in relation to the dayside merging with different IMF directions, allowing the reader to make direct visual comparisons of the vector patterns. It is seen that for east-west IMF directions, the data-based and MHD-based patterns differ noticeably in a similar way from the GD model, presumably reflecting the influence of dayside magnetic merging of the Earths magnetic field with the y-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. All three northward IMF cross sections show comparable field draping patterns as expected for a closed magnetosphere. For southward IMF case, on the other hand, differences between the three cross-sectional patterns are greater as seen in the field vector sizes and directions, especially closer to the magnetopause where more disturbed magneto-spheric conditions are known to be exist. The data comparisons with the MHD and GD models show that the differences result from the magnetic field-flow coupling and that the effects of dayside reconnection are present in IMP 8 magnetic field measurements.     

磁暴主相多阶发展行星际起因的初步分析

本文利用1998～2006年与磁云有关的80起中强磁暴(Dst*≤-50 nT),对其主相期间不同发展阶数磁暴的行星际起因进行了统计分析.重点研究了鞘区磁场单独作用、磁云本体单独作用、鞘区与磁云共同作用以及其他复杂行星际结构在磁暴主相多阶发展中的相对重要性,并对导致磁暴主相增加一阶的行星际起因做了初步分析.统计结果表明...     

Geomagnetic storm intensity forecast caused by magnetic clouds of solar wind

Method of short-term forecast intensity of geomagnetic storms, expected by effect Solar wind magnetic clouds in the Earth’s magnetosphere is developed. The method is based calculation of the magnetic field clouds distribution, suitable to the Earth, the initial satellite measurements therein components of the interplanetary magnetic field in the solar ecliptic coordinate system. Conclusion about the magnetic storm intensity is expected on the basis of analysis of the dynamics of the reduced magnetic field Bz component clouds and established communication intensity of geomagnetic storms on Dst-index values and Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field vector.     

Geomagnetic Field Disturbances Caused by Heliospheric Current Sheet Crossings

The heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is modified by the solar activity. HCS is highly inclined during solar maximum and almost confined with the solar equatorial plane during solar minimum. Close to the HCS solar wind parameters as proton temperature, flow speed, proton density, etc. differ compared to the region far from the HCS. The Earth’s magnetic dipole field crosses HCS several times each month. Considering interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) and high speed solar wind streams (HSS) free periods an investigation of the HCS influence on the geomagnetic field disturbances is presented. The results show a drop of the Dst index and a rise of the AE index at the time of the HCS crossings and also that the behavior of these indices does not depend on the magnetic polarity.