Using TOPMODEL towards identifying and modelling the hydrological patterns within a headwater,humid, tropical catchment

Increasing pressure on the tropical environment requires a more thorough understanding of hydrological processes as part of reconciling the conflicting demands of economic development vis-à-vis sustainable land management. Using TOPMODEL, a physically based semi-distributed topohydrological model, we test its validity in modelling the stream flow dynamics (hydrograph) in a 1 ha tropical rainforest catchment in French Guiana. Another objective is through field validation of TOPMODEL to ascertain possible runoff generation mechanisms. The field validation of the temporal and spatial hydrodynamics across a rainfall–runoff event reveals that TOPMODEL may be suited for applications to this particular tropical rainforest environment; in fact, this is possibly the first successful application of such a model within the humid tropics. The main reasons why the model was successful are the presumed low hydraulic conductivities of the subsoil, coupled with the absence of an additional deep groundwater body, the contribution from which has caused difficulties in application of topographically, ‘physically’ based runoff models elsewhere in the humid tropics. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological model sensitivity to parameter and radar rainfall estimation uncertainty

Radar estimates of rainfall are being increasingly applied to flood forecasting applications. Errors are inherent both in the process of estimating rainfall from radar and in the modelling of the rainfall–runoff transformation. The study aims at building a framework for the assessment of uncertainty that is consistent with the limitations of the model and data available and that allows a direct quantitative comparison between model predictions obtained by using radar and raingauge rainfall inputs. The study uses radar data from a mountainous region in northern Italy where complex topography amplifies radar errors due to radar beam occlusion and variability of precipitation with height. These errors, together with other error sources, are adjusted by applying a radar rainfall estimation algorithm. Radar rainfall estimates, adjusted and not, are used as an input to TOPMODEL for flood simulation over the Posina catchment (116 km²). Hydrological model parameter uncertainty is explicitly accounted for by use of the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation). Statistics are proposed to evaluate both the wideness of the uncertainty limits and the percentage of observations which fall within the uncertainty bounds. Results show the critical importance of proper adjustment of radar estimates and the use of radar estimates as close to ground as possible. Uncertainties affecting runoff predictions from adjusted radar data are close to those obtained by using a dense raingauge network, at least for the lowest radar observations available. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation and comparative study of two types of Topographic Index model for a homogeneous mountain catchment

In order to expand the application range of the classic Topographic Index model (TOPMODEL) and develop a more appropriate submodel of hydrological processes for use in the land surface model, two types of TOPMODEL are investigated, one with saturated hydraulic conductivity change with depth obeying exponential law (classical e-TOPMODEL or e-TOPMODEL for short) and the other obeying general power law (general p-TOPMODEL or p-TOPMODEL for short). Using observation date in the Suomo River catchment located in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the sensitivity study of the p-TOPMODEL was conducted and the simulated results from the model were examined and evaluated first, and then the results were compared with the results from the e-TOPMODEL to find the similarities and differences between the two types of models. The main conclusions obtained from the above studies are (1) topographic index and its distribution derived from the p-TOPPMODEL for the Suomo Basin are sensitive to changes of parameter n and m; (2) changes of n and m have impacts on the simulation results of various hydrological components (such as daily runoff, monthly averaged runoff, monthly averaged surface runoff and subsurface runoff), but have the weaker impacts on forty-year averaged total runoff; and (3) for the same value of m, the simulated results of e-TOPMODEL display higher surface runoff and lower subsurface runoff than the general p-TOPMODEL does but multi-year averaged total runoffs produced from the two types of TOPMODEL show insignificant difference. The differences between the two types of models indicate that it is necessary to pay close attention to correct selection from different hydrological models for use in land surface model development. The result mentioned above is useful to provide some referential information for the model selection.     

Observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing: investigating the hydrological functioning of a tropical catchment

Hypothesis testing about catchment functioning with conceptual hydrological models is affected by uncertainties in the model representation of reality as well as in the observed data used to drive and evaluate the model. We formulated a learning framework to investigate the role of observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing using conceptual models and applied it to the relatively data‐scarce tropical Sarapiqui catchment in Costa Rica. Observational uncertainties were accounted for throughout the framework that incorporated different choices of model structures to test process hypotheses, analyses of parametric uncertainties and effects of likelihood choice, a posterior performance analysis and (iteratively) formulation of new hypotheses. Estimated uncertainties in precipitation and discharge were linked to likely non‐linear near‐surface runoff generation and the potentially important role of soils in mediating the hydrological response. Some model‐structural inadequacies could be identified in the posterior analyses (supporting the need for an explicit soil‐moisture routine to match streamflow dynamics), but the available information about the observational uncertainties prevented conclusions about other process representations. The importance of epistemic data errors, the difficulty in quantifying them and their effect on model simulations was illustrated by an inconsistent event with long‐term effects. Finally we discuss the need for new data, new process hypotheses related to deep groundwater losses, and conclude that observational uncertainties need to be accounted for in hypothesis testing to reduce the risk of drawing incorrect conclusions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model in upper reaches of the Heihe river basin

Heihe river basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, has attracted more attention in China due to the ever increasing water resources and eco‐environmental problems. In this article, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool; http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/ ) model was applied to upper reaches of the basin for better understanding of the hydrological process over the watershed. Parameter uncertainty and its contribution on model simulation are the main foci. In model calibration, the aggregate parameters instead of the original parameters in SWAT model were used to reduce the computing effort. The Bayesian approach was employed for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis because its posterior distribution provides not only parameter estimation but also uncertainty analysis without normality assumption. The results indicated that: (1) SWAT model performs satisfactorily in this watershed as a whole, although some low and high flows were under‐ or overestimated, particularly in dry (e.g. 1991) and wet (e.g. 1996) years; (2) all calibrated parameters were not normally distributed (essentially positively or negatively skewed) and the parameter uncertainties were relatively small; and (3) the contributions of parameter uncertainty on model simulation uncertainty were relatively small. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating explicit and implicit routing for watershed hydro‐ecological models of forest hydrology at the small catchment scale

This paper explores the behaviour and sensitivity of a watershed model used for simulating lateral soil water redistribution and runoff production. In applications such as modelling the effects of land‐use change in small headwater catchments, interactions between soil moisture, runoff and ecological processes are important. Because climate, soil and canopy characteristics are spatially variable, both the pattern of soil moisture and the associated outflow must be represented in modelling these processes. This study compares implicit and explicit routing approaches to modelling the evolution of soil moisture pattern and spatially variable runoff production. It also addresses the implications of using different landscape partitioning strategies. This study presents the results of calibration and application of these different routing and landscape partitioning approaches on a 60 ha forested watershed in Western Oregon. For comparison, the different approaches are incorporated into a physically based hydro‐ecological model, RHESSys, and the resulting simulated soil moisture, runoff production and sensitivity to unbiased error are examined. Results illustrate that both routing approaches can be calibrated to achieve a reasonable fit between observed and modelled outflow. Calibrated values for effective watershed hydraulic conductivity are higher for the explicit routing approach, which illustrates differences between the two routing approaches in their representation of internal watershed dynamics. The explicit approach illustrates a seasonal shift in drainage organization from watershed to more local control as climate goes from a winter wet to a summer dry period. Assumptions used in the implicit approach maintain the same pattern of drainage organization throughout the season. The implicit approach is also more sensitive to random error in soil and topographic input information, particularly during wetter periods. Comparison between the two routing approaches illustrates the advantage of the explicit routing approach, although the loss of computational efficiency associated with the explicit routing approach is noted. To compare different strategies for partitioning the landscape, the use of a non‐grid‐based method of partitioning is introduced and shown to be comparable to grid‐based partitioning in terms of simulated soil moisture and runoff production. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recharge estimation using remotely sensed evapotranspiration in an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia

Reliable estimates of groundwater recharge are required for the sustainable management of surface and ground water resources in semi‐arid regions particularly in irrigated regions. In this study, groundwater recharge was estimated for an irrigated catchment in southeast Australia using a semi‐distributed hydrological model (SWAT). The model was calibrated under the dry climatic conditions for the period from August 2002 to July 2003 using flow and remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET). The model was able to simulate observed monthly drain flow and spatially distributed remotely sensed ET. Recharge tended to be higher for irrigated land covers, such as perennial pasture, than for non‐irrigated land. On average, the estimated annual catchment recharge ranged between 147 and 289 mm which represented about 40% of the total rainfall and irrigation inputs. The optimized soil parameters indirectly reflected flow bypassing the soil matrix that could be responsible for this substantial amount of recharge. Overall, the estimated recharge was much more than that previously estimated for the wetter years. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying storm flow pathways in a rainforest catchment using hydrological and geochemical modelling

The hydrological model TOPMODEL is used to assess the water balance and describe flow paths for the 9·73 ha Lutz Creek Catchment in Central Panama. Monte Carlo results are evaluated based on their fit to the observed hydrograph, catchment‐averaged soil moisture and stream chemistry. TOPMODEL, with a direct‐flow mechanism that is intended to route water through rapid shallow‐soil flow, matched observed chemistry and discharge better than the basic version of TOPMODEL and provided a reasonable fit to observed soil moisture and wet‐season discharge at both 15‐min and daily time‐steps. The improvement of simulations with the implementation of a direct‐flow component indicates that a storm flow path not represented in the original version of TOPMODEL plays a primary role in the response of Lutz Creek Catchment. This flow path may be consistent with the active and abundant pipeflow that is observed or delayed saturation overland flow. The ‘best‐accepted’ simulations from 1991 to 1997 indicate that around 41% of precipitation becomes direct flow and around 10% is saturation overland flow. Other field observations are needed to constrain evaporative and groundwater losses in the model and to characterize chemical end‐members posited in this paper. Published in 2004 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater recharge estimation using improved soil moisture balance methodology for a tropical climate with distinct dry seasons

Abstract

Groundwater recharge is estimated using an improved daily soil moisture balance based on a single soil water store for a climate classified as tropical with distinct dry seasons; an upland area in northwest Sri Lanka is used as an example. When the water availability is limited and the soil is under stress, the actual evapotranspiration is less than the potential value; the stress factor is estimated in terms of the readily and total available water, soil properties and effective root depth. Runoff is estimated using coefficients which depend on rainfall intensity and soil moisture deficits. A new component, near surface storage, is used to represent continuing evapotranspiration on days following heavy rainfall even though the soil moisture deficit is high. Recharge is estimated for permanent grass and a commonly cultivated vegetable crop. The plausibility of the model outputs is examined using independent information and data, including well water level fluctuations. Uncertainties and variations in parameter values are explored using sensitivity analyses.     

Event-based estimation of water budget components using a network of multi-sensor capacitance probes

Abstract

A new approach was developed for estimating vertical soil water fluxes using soil water content time series data. Instead of a traditional fixed time interval, this approach utilizes the time interval between two sequential minima of the soil water storage time series to identify groundwater recharge events and calculate components of the soil water budget. We calculated water budget components: surface-water excess (Sw), infiltration less evapotranspiration (I – ET) and groundwater recharge (R) from May 2001 to January 2003 at eight locations at the USDA Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, Maryland, USA. High uncertainty was observed for all budget components. This uncertainty was attributed to spatial and temporal variation in Sw, I – ET and R, and was caused by nonuniform rainfall distributions during recharge events, variability in the profile water content, and spatial variability in soil hydraulic properties. The proposed event-based approach allows estimating water budget components when profile water content monitoring data are available.

Citation Guber, A., Gish, T., Pachepsky, Y., McKee, L., Nicholson, T. & Cady, R. (2011) Event-based estimation of water budget components using a network of multi-sensor capacitance probes. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1227–1241.     

Leveraging ensemble meteorological forcing data to improve parameter estimation of hydrologic models

As continental to global scale high-resolution meteorological datasets continue to be developed, there are sufficient meteorological datasets available now for modellers to construct a historical forcing ensemble. The forcing ensemble can be a collection of multiple deterministic meteorological datasets or come from an ensemble meteorological dataset. In hydrological model calibration, the forcing ensemble can be used to represent forcing data uncertainty. This study examines the potential of using the forcing ensemble to identify more robust parameters through model calibration. Specifically, we compare an ensemble forcing-based calibration with two deterministic forcing-based calibrations and investigate their flow simulation and parameter estimation properties and the ability to resist poor-quality forcings. The comparison experiment is conducted with a six-parameter hydrological model for 30 synthetic studies and 20 real data studies to provide a better assessment of the average performance of the deterministic and ensemble forcing-based calibrations. Results show that the ensemble forcing-based calibration generates parameter estimates that are less biased and have higher frequency of covering the true parameter values than the deterministic forcing-based calibration does. Using a forcing ensemble in model calibration reduces the risk of inaccurate flow simulation caused by poor-quality meteorological inputs, and improves the reliability and overall simulation skill of ensemble simulation results. The poor-quality meteorological inputs can be effectively filtered out via our ensemble forcing-based calibration methodology and thus discarded in any post-calibration model applications. The proposed ensemble forcing-based calibration method can be considered as a more generalized framework to include parameter and forcing uncertainties in model calibration.     

Multi‐criterial validation of TOPMODEL in a mountainous catchment

The need for powerful validation methods for hydrological models including the evaluation of internal stages and spatially distributed simulations has often been emphasized. In this study a multi‐criterial validation scheme was used for validation of TOPMODEL, a conceptual semi‐distributed rainfall–runoff model. The objective was to test TOPMODEL's capability of adequately representing dominant hydrological processes by simple conceptual approaches. Validation methods differed in the type of data used, in their target and in mode. The model was applied in the humid and mountainous Brugga catchment (40 km²) in south‐west Germany. It was calibrated by a Monte Carlo method based on hourly runoff data. Additional information for validation was derived from a recession analysis, hydrograph separation with environmental tracers and from field surveys, including the mapping of saturated areas. Although runoff simulations were satisfying, inadequacies of the model structure compared with the real situation with regard to hydrological processes in the study area were found. These belong mainly to the concept of variable contributing areas for saturation excess overland flow and their dynamics, which were overestimated by the model. The simple TOPMODEL approach of two flow components was found to be insufficient. The multi‐criterial validation scheme enables not only to demonstrate limitations with regard to process representation, but also to specify where and why these limitations occur. It may serve as a valuable tool for the development of physically sound model modifications. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling infiltration enhancement in a tropical urban catchment for improved stormwater management

To mitigate the impacts of impervious surfaces in urban areas, structures such as bioretention systems and permeable pavements have been installed to enhance infiltration in many countries. However, relatively little knowledge is available regarding the performance of such infiltration‐based structures in humid tropical and highly urbanized areas. This study investigates the feasibility of enhancing the infiltration of stormwater in tropical urbanized areas using Singapore as a case study. It first shows that the rainfall depth and intensity are both high, but the time interval between consecutive rainfall event is long in Singapore. It then numerically simulates single‐event local infiltration and finds that the fraction of infiltrated rainfall is actually high. It finally performs catchment‐scale simulations and finds that bioretention systems can enhance infiltration and groundwater recharge particularly during wet periods. However, local mounding of groundwater can be significant and can hinder the performance of those structures. Furthermore, with 5% of catchment area being converted to such structures, the infiltration of the entire catchment is enhanced but still not yet up to the natural level. To increase the overall effectiveness, future studies can look into bioretention systems with underdrain systems. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological behaviour and modelling of a volcanic tropical cultivated catchment

The hydrological behaviour of the cultivated Féfé catchment (17·8 ha) on the tropical volcanic island of Guadeloupe was studied to identify flow paths, to quantify water fluxes, and finally, to build a lumped model to simulate discharge and piezometer levels. The approach combined two steps, an experimental step and a modelling step, which covered two time scales, the annual and the storm event scale. The hydrological measurements were conducted over 2 years. The Féfé catchment is characterized by heavy rainfall (4229 mm year^?1) on permeable Andosols; the results showed that underground flow paths involved two overlapping aquifers, and that the annual water balance in 2003 was shared among outflows of the deep aquifer (42%), evapotranspiration (31%), and streamflow (27%). On the event scale, the surface runoff coefficient ranges between 6·2% and 24·4% depending on antecedent dry or wet moisture conditions. Hortonian overland flow predominated over subsurface and saturation overland flow processes. Recharge of the shallow aquifer is mainly governed by a constant infiltration capacity of the Andosols with depth in the vadose zone. Outflows of this shallow aquifer were the baseflow of the main stream and the recharge of the deep aquifer. Volcanic deposits at Féfé promoted the underground flow path, and cultivated areas seemed to explain the high stormflow values relative to other tropical small catchments under rain forest. A conceptual lumped model integrating runoff, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and fluctuations of the two overlapping aquifers was developed. The model has six parameters and was calibrated and validated on the hydrograph at the outlet and on the two piezometers of the shallow and the deep aquifers. The results show fair to good agreement between measured and simulated variables, and consequently, the model was consistent with the main hydrological processes observed from experimental results in wet conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bank erosion and channel width change in a tropical catchment

Catchment sediment budget models are used to predict the location and rates of bank erosion in tropical catchments draining to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, yet the reliability of these predictions has not been tested due to a lack of measured bank erosion data. This paper presents the results of a 3 year field study examining bank erosion and channel change on the Daintree River, Australia. Three different methods were employed: (1) erosion pins were used to assess the influence of riparian vegetation on bank erosion, (2) bench‐marked cross‐sections were used to evaluate annual changes in channel width and (3) historical aerial photos were used to place the short term data into a longer temporal perspective of channel change (1972–2000). The erosion pin data suggest that the mean erosion rate of banks with riparian vegetation is 6·5 times (or 85%) lower than that of banks without riparian vegetation. The changes measured from cross‐section surveys suggest that channel width has increased by an average of 0·74 (±0·47) m a^?1 over the study period (or ～0·8% yr^?1). The aerial photo results suggest that over the last 30 years the Daintree River has undergone channel contraction of the order of 0·25 m a^?1. The cross‐section data were compared against modelled SedNet bank erosion rates, and it was found that the model underestimated bank erosion and was unable to represent the variable erosion and accretion processes that were observed in the field data. The reach averaged bank erosion rates were improved by the inclusion of locally derived bed slope and discharge estimates; however, the results suggest that it will be difficult for catchment scale sediment budget models to ever accurately predict the location and rate of bank erosion due to the variation in bank erosion rates in both space and time. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the SWMM model uncertainties within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework for a high‐resolution urban sewershed

This research incorporates the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology in a high‐resolution Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), which we developed for a highly urbanized sewershed in Syracuse, NY, to assess SWMM modelling uncertainties and estimate parameters. We addressed two issues that have long been suggested having a great impact on the GLUE uncertainty estimation: the observations used to construct the likelihood measure and the sampling approach to obtain the posterior samples of the input parameters and prediction bounds of the model output. First, on the basis of the Bayes' theorem, we compared the prediction bounds generated from the same Gaussian distribution likelihood measure conditioned on flow observations of varying magnitude. Second, we employed two sampling techniques, the sampling importance resampling (SIR) and the threshold sampling methods, to generate posterior parameter distributions and prediction bounds, based on which the sampling efficiency was compared. In addition, for a better understanding of the hydrological responses of different pervious land covers in urban areas, we developed new parameter sets in SWMM representing the hydrological properties of trees and lawns, which were estimated through the GLUE procedure. The results showed that SIR was a more effective alternative to the conventional threshold sampling method. The combined total flow and peak flow data were an efficient alternative to the intensive 5‐min flow data for reducing SWMM parameter and output uncertainties. Several runoff control parameters were found to have a great effect on peak flows, including the newly introduced parameters for trees. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial rainfall analysis across a humid tropical catchment

Temporal and spatial rainfall patterns were analysed to describe the distribution of daily rainfall across a medium‐sized (379km²) tropical catchment. Investigations were carried out to assess whether a climatological variogram model was appropriate for mapping rainfall taking into consideration the changing rainfall characteristics through the wet season. Exploratory, frequency and moving average analyses of 30 years' daily precipitation data were used to describe the reliability and structure of the rainfall regime. Four phases in the wet season were distinguished, with the peak period (mid‐August to mid‐September) representing the wettest period. A low‐cost rain gauge network of 36 plastic gauges with overflow reservoirs was installed and monitored to obtain spatially distributed rainfall data. Geostatistical techniques were used to develop global and wet season phase climatological variograms. The unscaled climatological variograms were cross‐validated and compared using a range of rainfall events. Ordinary Kriging was used as the interpolation method. The global climatological variogram performed better, and was used to optimize the number and location of rain gauges in the network. The research showed that although distinct wet season phases could be established based on the temporal analysis of daily rainfall characteristics, the interpolation of daily rainfall across a medium‐sized catchment based on spatial analysis was better served by using the global rather than the wet season phase climatological variogram model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tunnel development over a 12 year period in a semi‐arid catchment of the Loess Plateau,China

The tunnel systems in a semi‐arid catchment of the Loess Plateau of China were repeatedly surveyed prior to the rainy seasons of 1989, 1999 and 2001. The surveys aimed to: (1) measure tunnel development over the 12 year period 1989–2001; (2) explore how the physiographical conditions affect the spatio‐temporal variability of tunnel development; and (3) to identify the geomorphic processes associated with tunnel development. The ultimate goal was to quantify the geomorphic significance of tunnel systems in the catchment. Over the 12 year period, the number of tunnel inlets was more than doubled and most of the newly increased inlets were initiated in the few catastrophic storm events. However, tunnel enlargement can occur in storm or inter‐storm periods, mainly through earth falls and slumps in inlets, and water erosion and roof cave‐in collapses in tunnel paths. Tunnel development varied with material properties, land uses and topographic conditions. Net tunnel erosion may contribute at least 25–30% of the catchment sediment yield and was mainly produced by the initiation and enlargement of tunnel inlets rather than tunnel paths. To protect the areas against tunnel erosion, terracing of the upper slopes seems to be more effective than planting vegetation on the lower slopes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties in climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve of a Mediterranean catchment

ABSTRACT

Climate models and hydrological parameter uncertainties were quantified and compared while assessing climate change impacts on monthly runoff and daily flow duration curve (FDC) in a Mediterranean catchment. Simulations of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using an ensemble of behavioural parameter sets derived from the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method were approximated by feed-forward artificial neural networks (FF-NN). Then, outputs of climate models were used as inputs to the FF-NN models. Subsequently, projected changes in runoff and FDC were calculated and their associated uncertainty was partitioned into climate model and hydrological parameter uncertainties. Runoff and daily discharge of the Chiba catchment were expected to decrease in response to drier and warmer climatic conditions in the 2050s. For both hydrological indicators, uncertainty magnitude increased when moving from dry to wet periods. The decomposition of uncertainty demonstrated that climate model uncertainty dominated hydrological parameter uncertainty in wet periods, whereas in dry periods hydrological parametric uncertainty became more important.

Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor S. Kanae