The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Sensitivity analyses of a distributed catchment model to verify the model structure

Sensitivity analyses are valuable tools for identifying important model parameters, testing the model conceptualization, and improving the model structure. They help to apply the model efficiently and to enable a focussed planning of future research and field measurement. Two different methods were used for sensitivity analyses of the complex process-oriented model TAC^D (tracer aided catchment model, distributed) that was applied to the meso-scale Brugga basin (40 km²) and the sub-basin St Wilhelmer Talbach (15.2 km²). Five simulations periods were investigated: two summer events, two snow melt induced events and one summer low flow period. The model was applied using 400 different parameter sets, which were generated by Monte Carlo simulations using latin hypercube sampling. The regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) allowed determining the most significant parameters for the complete simulation periods using a graphical method. The results of the regression-based sensitivity analysis were more detailed and complex. The temporal variability of the simulation sensitivity could be observed continuously and the significance of the parameters could be determined in a quantitative way. A dependency of the simulation sensitivity on initial- and boundary conditions and the temporal and spatial variability of the sensitivity to some model parameters was revealed by the regression-based sensitivity analysis. Thus, the difficulty of transferring the results to different time periods or model applications in other catchments became obvious. The analysis of the temporal course of the simulation sensitivity to parameter values in conjunction with simulated and measured additional data sets (precipitation, temperature, reservoir volumes etc.) gave further insight into the internal model behaviour and demonstrated the plausibility of the model structure and process conceptionalizations.     

A preliminary assessment of the spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment in the Ohio River basin,United States,using water quality data from the NASQAN programme in a source tracing procedure

Reliable information on catchment scale suspended sediment sources is required to inform the design of management strategies for helping abate the numerous environmental issues associated with enhanced sediment mobilization and off‐site loadings. Since sediment fingerprinting techniques avoid many of the logistical constraints associated with using more traditional indirect measurement methods at catchment scale, such approaches have been increasingly reported in the international literature and typically use data sets collected specifically for sediment source apportionment purposes. There remains scope for investigating the potential for using geochemical data sets assembled by routine monitoring programmes to fingerprint sediment provenance. In the United States, routine water quality samples are collected as part of the US Geological Survey's revised National Stream Quality Accounting Network programme. Accordingly, the geochemistry data generated from these samples over a 10‐year period (1996–2006) were used as the basis for a fingerprinting exercise to assess the key tributary sub‐catchment spatial sources of contemporary suspended sediment transported by the Ohio River. Uncertainty associated with the spatial source estimates was quantified using a Monte Carlo approach in conjunction with mass balance modelling. Relative frequency weighted means were used as an alternative way of summarizing the spatial source contributions, thereby avoiding the need to use confidence limits. The results should be interpreted in the context of the routine, but infrequent nature, of the suspended sediment samples used to assemble geochemistry as a basis for the sourcing exercise. Nonetheless, the study demonstrates how routine monitoring samples can be used to provide some preliminary information on sediment provenance in large drainage basins. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combining suspended sediment monitoring and fingerprinting to determine the spatial origin of fine sediment in a mountainous river catchment

An excess of fine sediment (grain size <2 mm) supply to rivers leads to reservoir siltation, water contamination and operational problems for hydroelectric power plants in many catchments of the world, such as in the French Alps. These problems are exacerbated in mountainous environments characterized by large sediment exports during very short periods. This study combined river flow records, sediment geochemistry and associated radionuclide concentrations as input properties to a Monte Carlo mixing model to quantify the contribution of different geologic sources to river sediment. Overall, between 2007 and 2009, erosion rates reached 249 ± 75 t km^?2 yr^?1 at the outlet of the Bléone catchment, but this mean value masked important spatial variations of erosion intensity within the catchment (85–5000 t km^?2 yr^?1). Quantifying the contribution of different potential sources to river sediment required the application of sediment fingerprinting using a Monte Carlo mixing model. This model allowed the specific contributions of different geological sub‐types (i.e. black marls, marly limestones, conglomerates and Quaternary deposits) to be determined. Even though they generate locally very high erosion rates, black marls supplied only a minor fraction (5–20%) of the fine sediment collected on the riverbed in the vicinity of the 907 km² catchment outlet. The bulk of sediment was provided by Quaternary deposits (21–66%), conglomerates (3–44%) and limestones (9–27%). Even though bioengineering works conducted currently to stabilize gullies in black marl terrains are undoubtedly useful to limit sediment supply to the Bléone river, erosion generated by other substrate sources dominated between 2007 and 2009 in this catchment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of surface water resources and evapotranspiration in the Haihe River basin of China using SWAT model

Quantitative assessment of surface water resources (SWRs) and evapotranspiration (ET) is essential and significant for reasonably planning and managing water resources in the Haihe River basin which is facing severe water shortage. In this study, a distributed hydrological model of the Haihe River basin was constructed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, well considering the reservoirs and agricultural management practices for reasonable simulation. The crop parameters were independently calibrated with the observed crop data at six experimental stations. Then, sensitivity ranks of hydrological parameters were analysed, which suggested the important parameters used for calibration. The model was successfully calibrated using the monthly observed data of discharge in around 1970–1991 and actual ET (ET_a) in 2002–2004 for the mountainous area and Haihe plain, respectively. Meanwhile, good agreements between the simulated and statistical crop yields in 1985–2005 further verified the model's appropriateness. Finally, the calibrated model was used to assess SWRs and ET_a in time and space during 1961–2005. Results showed that the average annual natural SWRs and the ET_a were about 17.5 billion cubic metre and 542 mm, respectively, both with a slight downward trend. The spatial distributions of both SWRs and ET_a were significantly impacted by variations of precipitation and land use. Moreover, the reservoir in operation was the main factor for the noticeable decline of actual SWRs. In the Haihe plain, the ET_a with irrigation was increased by 46% compared with that under rainfed conditions. In addition, this study identified the regions with potential to improve the irrigation effects on water use. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a travel-time distribution-based stream water electrical conductivity model

In this paper, we analyse the uncertainty and parameter sensitivity of a conceptual water quality model, based on a travel time distribution (TTD) approach, simulating electrical conductivity (EC) in the Duck River, Northwest Tasmania, Australia for a 2-year period. Dynamic TTDs of stream water were estimated using the StorAge Selection (SAS) approach, which was coupled with two alternate methods to model stream water EC: (1) a solute-balance approach and (2) a water age-based approach. Uncertainty analysis using the Differential Evaluation Adoptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm showed that: 1. parameter uncertainty was a small contribution to the overall uncertainty; 2. most uncertainty was related to input data uncertainty and model structure; 3. slightly lower total error was obtained in the water age-based model than the solute-balance model; 4. using time-variant SAS functions reduced the model uncertainty markedly, which likely reflects the effect of dynamic hydrological conditions over the year affecting the relative importance of different flow pathways over time. Model parameter sensitivity analysis using the Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS-TOOL) framework found that parameters directly related to the EC concentration were most sensitive. In the solute-balance model, the rainfall concentration C_rain and in the age-based model, the parameter controlling the rate of change of EC with age (λ) were the most sensitive parameter. Model parameters controlling the age mixes of both evapotranspiration and streamflow water fluxes (i.e., the SAS function parameters) were influential for the solute-balance model. Little change in parameter sensitivity over time was found for the age-based concentration relationship; however, the parameter sensitivity was quite dynamic over time for the solute-balance approach. The overarching outcomes provide water quality modellers, engineers and managers greater insight into catchment functioning and its dependence on hydrological conditions.     

How to improve the representation of hydrological processes in SWAT for a lowland catchment – temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity and model performance

Model diagnostic analyses help to improve the understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in hydrological models. A detailed temporal analysis detects periods of poor model performance and model components with potential for model improvements, which cannot be found by analysing the whole discharge time series. In this study, we aim to improve the understanding of hydrological processes by investigating the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity and of model performance for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model applied to the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. The temporal analysis shows that the parameter sensitivity varies temporally with high sensitivity for three groundwater parameters (groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient) and one evaporation parameter (soil evaporation compensation factor). Whereas the soil evaporation compensation factor dominates in baseflow and resaturation periods, groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient are dominant in the peak and recession phases. The temporal analysis of model performance identifies three clusters with different model performances, which can be related to different phases of the hydrograph. The lowest performance, when comparing six performance measures, is detected for the baseflow cluster. A spatially distributed analysis for six hydrological stations within the Treene catchment shows similar results for all stations. The linkage of periods with poor model performance to the dominant model components in these phases and with the related hydrological processes shows that the groundwater module has the highest potential for improvement. This temporal diagnostic analysis enhances the understanding of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and of the dominant hydrological processes in the lowland catchment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow model sensitivity analysis to understand spatial and temporal snow dynamics in a high‐elevation catchment

In this paper, we addressed a sensitivity analysis of the snow module of the GEOtop2.0 model at point and catchment scale in a small high‐elevation catchment in the Eastern Italian Alps (catchment size: 61 km²). Simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent at the point scale were compared with measured data at four locations from 2009 to 2013. At the catchment scale, simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) was compared with binary snow cover maps derived from moderate‐resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat satellite imagery. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of different model parameterizations on model performance at both scales and the effect of different thresholds of simulated snow depth on the agreement with MODIS data. Our results at point scale indicated that modifying only the “snow correction factor” resulted in substantial improvements of the snow model and effectively compensated inaccurate winter precipitation by enhancing snow accumulation. SCA inaccuracies at catchment scale during accumulation and melt period were affected little by different snow depth thresholds when using calibrated winter precipitation from point scale. However, inaccuracies were strongly controlled by topographic characteristics and model parameterizations driving snow albedo (“snow ageing coefficient” and “extinction of snow albedo”) during accumulation and melt period. Although highest accuracies (overall accuracy = 1 in 86% of the catchment area) were observed during winter, lower accuracies (overall accuracy < 0.7) occurred during the early accumulation and melt period (in 29% and 23%, respectively), mostly present in areas with grassland and forest, slopes of 20–40°, areas exposed NW or areas with a topographic roughness index of ?0.25 to 0 m. These findings may give recommendations for defining more effective model parameterization strategies and guide future work, in which simulated and MODIS SCA may be combined to generate improved products for SCA monitoring in Alpine catchments.     

Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km²) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area.     

Field survey and modelling of irrigation water quality indices in a Mediterranean island catchment: a comparison between spatial interpolation methods

ABSTRACT

A biannual survey of physico-chemical quality indices of 104 irrigation-water wells located in a cultivated plain of a Mediterranean island catchment was conducted using a multi-parameter probe. The campaign was planned so as to differentiate between the dry and wet seasons. The acquired data constituted the test bed for evaluating the results and the features of four spatial interpolation methods, i.e. ordinary kriging, universal kriging, inverse distance weighted and nearest neighbours, against those of the recently introduced bilinear surface smoothing (BSS). In several cases, BSS outperformed the other interpolation methods, especially during the two-fold cross-validation procedure. The study emphasizes the fact that both in situ measurements and good mathematical techniques for studying the spatial distribution of water quality indices are pivotal to agricultural practice management. In the specific case studied, the spatio-temporal variability of water quality parameters and the need for monitoring were evident, as low irrigation water quality was encountered throughout the study area.     

Impact of grid resolution on the integrated and distributed response of a coupled surface–subsurface hydrological model for the des Anglais catchment,Quebec

Digital elevation models (DEMs) at different resolutions (180, 360, and 720 m) are used to examine the impact of different levels of landscape representation on the hydrological response of a 690‐km² catchment in southern Quebec. Frequency distributions of local slope, plan curvature, and drainage area are calculated for each grid size resolution. This landscape analysis reveals that DEM grid size significantly affects computed topographic attributes, which in turn explains some of the differences in the hydrological simulations. The simulations that are then carried out, using a coupled, process‐based model of surface and subsurface flow, examine the effects of grid size on both the integrated response of the catchment (discharge at the main outlet and at two internal points) and the distributed response (water table depth, surface saturation, and soil water storage). The results indicate that discharge volumes increase as the DEM is coarsened, and that coarser DEMs are also wetter overall in terms of water table depth and soil water storage. The reasons for these trends include an increase in the total drainage area of the catchment for larger DEM cell sizes, due to aggregation effects at the boundary cells of the catchment, and to a decrease in local slope and plan curvature variations, which in turn limits the capacity of the watershed to transmit water downslope and laterally. The results obtained also show that grid resolution effects are less pronounced during dry periods when soil moisture dynamics are mostly controlled by vertical fluxes of evaporation and percolation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.     

Impact of redox and transport processes in a riparian wetland on stream water quality in the Fichtelgebirge region,southern Germany

Biologically mediated redox processes in the riparian zone, like denitrification, can have substantially beneficial impacts on stream water quality. The extent of these effects, however, depends greatly on the hydrological boundary conditions. The impact of hydrological processes on a wetland's nitrogen sink capacity was investigated in a forested riparian fen which is drained by a first‐order perennial stream. Here, we analysed the frequency distributions and time‐series of pH and nitrogen, silica, organic carbon and oxygen concentrations in throughfall, soil solution, groundwater and stream water, and the groundwater levels and stream discharges from a 3‐year period. During baseflow conditions, the stream was fed by discharging shallow, anoxic groundwater and by deep, oxic groundwater. Whereas the latter delivered considerable amounts of nitrogen (～0·37 mg l^?1) to the stream, the former was almost entirely depleted of nitrogen. During stormflow, near‐surface runoff in the upper 30 cm soil layer bypassed the denitrifying zone and added significant amounts to the nitrogen load of the stream. Nitrate‐nitrogen was close to 100% of deep groundwater and stream‐water nitrogen concentration. Stream‐water baseflow concentrations of nitrate, dissolved carbon and silica were about 1·6 mg l^?1, 4 mg l^?1 and 7·5 mg l^?1 respectively, and >3 mg l^?1, >10 mg l^?1 and <4 mg l^?1 respectively during discharge peaks. In addition to that macroscale bypassing effect, there was evidence for a corresponding microscale effect: Shallow groundwater sampled by soil suction cups indicated complete denitrification and lacked any seasonal signal of solute concentration, which was in contrast to piezometer samples from the same depth. Moreover, mean solute concentration in the piezometer samples resembled more that of suction‐cup samples from shallower depth than that of the same depth. We conclude that the soil solution cups sampled to a large extent the immobile soil‐water fraction. In contrast, the mobile fraction that was sampled by the piezometers exhibited substantially shorter residence time, thus being less exposed to denitrification, but predominating discharge of that layer to the stream. Consequently, assessing the nitrogen budget based on suction‐cup data tended to overestimate the nitrogen consumption in the riparian wetland. These effects are likely to become more important with the increased frequency and intensity of rainstorms that are expected due to climate change. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity analysis of a deterministic water temperature model to forest canopy and soil temperature in Catamaran Brook (New Brunswick,Canada)

A coupled deterministic hydrological and water temperature model, CEQUEAU, was modified to include soil temperature and crown closure in its calculation of local advective terms in the heat budget. The modified model was than tested to verify its sensitivity to these modifications. An analysis of the heat budget of a small forested catchment in eastern Canada revealed that the advective term related to interflow plays a significant role in the daily water heat budget, providing on average 28% of the local advective budget (which also includes advective heat terms from surface runoff and groundwater) and nearly 14% of the total heat budget (which includes all radiative terms at the water surface, convection and evaporation, as well as the local advective terms). Relative sensitivity indices (RSIs) were used to verify the impact of the newly introduced parameters and variables. Among them, parameters related to the forest cover (crown closure and leaf area index) have a maximum RSI of ?0·6; i.e. a 100% increase in value produces a 60% decrease in the local advective term. Parameters with the greatest influence are the volume of water contributing to interflow and the amplitude of the net radiative flux at the soil surface, which, if doubled, would double the contribution of the local interflow advective term to the heat budget. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山东南四湖上级湖水质变化评价(2008-2014年)及成因分析

基于南四湖上级湖6个监测点2008-2014年42个奇数月份的水质资料,选取溶解氧、化学需氧量(COD)、高锰酸盐指数(COD_Mn)、五日生化需氧量(BOD₅)、氨氮、总磷和氟化物作为水质评价的指标.对水质指标的归一化方法进行了改进,采用主成分分析法对6个监测点的水质综合状况进行评价,根据得出的各月综合得分序列分析水质变化趋势.与2000-2007年南四湖上级湖的水质综合状况进行比较,2008-2014年水质明显变好.评价结果表明,同一监测点的水质在不同时间点上有明显变化,同一时间序列不同监测点的水质状况也有不同变化.此外,分析得出南四湖上级湖的主要水质影响指标为COD、COD_Mn和BOD₅.结合评价结果,分析水质变化原因,入湖河流水质状况和湖区底泥是其重要影响因素.     

Combination of CFCs and stable isotopes to characterize the mechanism of groundwater–surface water interactions in a headwater basin of the North China Plain

Mountainous areas are characterized by steep slopes and rocky landforms, with hydrological conditions varying rapidly from upstream to downstream, creating variable interactions between groundwater and surface water. In this study, mechanisms of groundwater–surface water interactions within a headwater catchment of the North China Plain were assessed along the stream length and during different seasons, using hydrochemical and stable isotope data, and groundwater residence times estimated using chlorofluorocarbons. These tracers indicate that the river is gaining, due to groundwater discharge in the headwater catchment both in the dry and rainy seasons. Residence time estimation of groundwater using chlorofluorocarbons data reveals that groundwater flow in the shallow sedimentary aquifer is dominated by the binary mixing of water approximating a piston flow model along 2 flow paths: old water, carried by a regional flow system along the direction of river flow, along with young water, which enters the river through local flow systems from hilly areas adjacent to the river valley (particularly during the rainy season). The larger mixing ratio of young water from lateral groundwater recharge and return flow of irrigation during the rainy season result in higher ion concentrations in groundwater than in the dry season. The binary mixing model showed that the ratio of young water versus total groundwater ranged from 0.88 to 0.22 and 1.0 to 0.74 in the upper and lower reaches, respectively. In the middle reach, meandering stream morphology allows some loss of river water back into the aquifer, leading to increasing estimates of the ratio of young water (from 0.22 to 1). This is also explained by declining groundwater levels near the river, due to groundwater extraction for agricultural irrigation. The switch from a greater predominance of regional flow in the dry season, to more localized groundwater flow paths in the wet season is an important groundwater–surface water interactions mechanism, with important catchment management implications.     

The use of a spatially heterogeneous simulation model for studying biotransformation processes of nitrogen and phosphorus compounds and the dynamics of oxygen dissolved in water in the ecosystem of Neva Bay, the Gulf of Finland: 2. Input data for calculations, modeling results, and their analysis

The data collected for model calculations is systematized for natural and design conditions. The natural conditions did not take into account the effect of the complex of water-protection structures on the hydrological regime of Neva Bay and on the biogenic load onto this water area, while the design conditions, conversely, reflected the possible impact of those structures on the hydrology and ecology of the area. Numerical experiments were used to study the processes of transformation of N and P compounds and the dynamics of dissolved O₂ in Neva Bay water area. In the comparison of the calculated and observed concentrations of biogenic substances, Theil criterion was evaluated to assess the adequacy of the model in reproducing the concentration fields of the distribution of biogenic substances over Neva Bay water area. The major qualitative and quantitative features of the formation of the spatial heterogeneity and the time variations in the concentrations of biogenic element compounds over Neva Bay water area are identified. Possible improvements of the model in the reproduction of the complex of processes that are of particular importance for the development of substance transformations in shallow ecosystems are considered.