Development and application of a remote sensing-based salinity prediction model for a large estuarine lake in the US Gulf of Mexico coast

Salinity in estuaries is highly variable due to river discharge, tidal motion, and winds. Information on the spatial and temporal changes in salinity can provide important ecological indications, but accurate monitoring of the space–time variability for a large estuary is often costly and time-consuming. This study applied remote sensing techniques to develop a salinity prediction model for Lake Pontchartrain, a large estuarine lake located in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, USA. “Ground truth” salinity was measured along two transects across the lake and near the shoreline. Water-leaving reflectance from the measurement locations was extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images pre-processed through “banding” noise reduction and radiometrical correction approaches. Ordinary least square and ridge regression methods were performed to identify model parameters and to determine relationships between salinity and reflectance. Salinity in the lake on eight dates was predicted with the developed model. Difference in salinity level and patterns, and impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on salinity were assessed with ANOVA and Fuzzy Similarity methods. The results showed that the model achieved a high power in prediction of the lake salinity (R² = 0.89 and RMSE of validation = 0.27). Reflectance from TM bands 1, 2, and 4 was positively correlated to salinity levels and explained 1.9%, 20.3%, and 10.2% variance in salinity levels. Reflectance from bands 3 and 5 was negatively correlated to salinity and explained 34.1% and 31.2% variance. Under normal circumstances without the impacts of hurricanes, the lake salinity presented two patterns with average salinity level of 5.5 ppt. After Katrina’s landfall, the average was significantly increased by 1.1 ppt and the spatial patterns were altered. The pattern on 30 August 2005 was the most dissimilar one as compared to the two normal patterns, and then followed by the patterns on 9 and 25 October, and 7 September 2005. This study demonstrated that satellite remote sensing techniques can be applied to monitor salinity in coastal environments, and that freshwater discharge not only affects salinity levels and patterns under normal conditions but also is crucial for the return of salinity patterns to normal conditions after hurricane disturbance.     

乌伦古湖水体矿化度和氟化物浓度的年际变化及模拟

为研究乌伦古湖矿化度和氟化物浓度与各水量因子间的定量关系,本研究以水量平衡和物质平衡为基础,把影响湖水水质的原因分为降雨、蒸发、河流补给、地下水补给以及地下水流出5个水量因子,定量分析湖水矿化度和氟化物浓度与各水量因子之间的关系,并且预测了湖水矿化度和氟化物浓度的动态变化.结果表明,地下水输出流量决定了湖水中矿化度和氟化物浓度,地下水输出流量越大,湖水中的矿化度和氟化物浓度越小.2010年至今乌伦古湖水位的升高导致了地下水输出流量增大,乌伦古湖内的矿化度和氟化物浓度均呈缓慢下降趋势,模型预测新的稳态下湖水中矿化度为1.68 g/L,氟化物浓度为1.70 mg/L,在地下水输出流量不变的情况下达到新的稳态所需时间大约为50 a.     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Three‐dimensional hydrodynamic and salinity transport modelling of Danshuei River estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea,Taiwan

A three‐dimensional, time‐dependent hydrodynamic and salinity model was applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system and adjacent coastal sea in Taiwan. The model forcing functions consist of tidal elevations along the open boundary and freshwater flows from the main stem and tributaries in the Danshuei River system. The bottom roughness height was calibrated and verified with model simulation of barotropic flow, and the turbulent diffusivities were calibrated through comparison of time‐series of salinity distributions. The overall model verification was achieved with comparisons of residual current and salinity distribution. The model simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to investigate the tidal current, residual current, and salinity patterns under the low freshwater flow condition in the modelling domain. The results reveal that the extensive intrusion of saline water imposes a significant baroclinic forcing and induces a strong residual circulation in the estuary. The downriver net velocity in the upper layer increases seaward despite the enlargement of the river cross‐section in that direction. Strong residual circulation can be found near the Kuan‐Du station. This may be the result of the deep bathymetric features there. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of variable salinity conditions in a tidal creek on riparian groundwater flow and salinity dynamics

While recent studies have revealed that tidal fluctuations in an estuary significantly affect groundwater flows and salt transport in the riparian zone, only seawater salinity in the estuary has been considered. A numerical study is conducted to investigate the influence of estuarine salinity variations on the groundwater flow and salt dynamics in the adjacent aquifer to extend our understanding of these complex and dynamic systems. Tidal salinity fluctuations (synchronous with estuary stage) were found to alter the magnitude and distribution of groundwater discharge to the estuary, which subsequently impacted on groundwater salinity patterns and residence times, especially in the riparian zone. The effects of salinity fluctuations were not fully captured by adopting a constant, time-averaged estuarine salinity. The modelling analysis also included an assessment of the impact of a seasonal freshwater flush in the estuary, similar to that expected in tropical climates (e.g. mean estuary level during flood significantly greater than average), on adjacent groundwater flow and salinity conditions. The three-month freshwater flushing event temporarily disrupted the salt distribution and re-circulation patterns predicted to occur under conditions of constant salinity and tidal water level fluctuations in the estuary. The results indicate that the salinity variations in tidal estuaries impact significantly on estuary–aquifer interaction and need to be accounted for to properly assess salinity and flow dynamics and groundwater residence times of riparian zones.     

Variability of dense water formation in the Ross Sea

This paper presents results from a model study of the interannual variability of high salinity shelf water (HSSW) properties in the Ross Sea. Salinity and potential temperature of HSSW formed in the western Ross Sea show oscillatory behaviour at periods of 5–6 and 9 years superimposed on long-term fluctuations. While the shorter oscillations are induced by wind variability, variability on the scale of decades appears to be related to air temperature fluctuations. At least part of the strong decrease of HSSW salinities deduced from observations for the period 1963–2000 is shown to be an aliasing artefact due to an undersampling of the periodic signal. While sea ice formation is responsible for the yearly salinity increase that triggers the formation of HSSW, interannual variability of net freezing rates hardly affects changes in the properties of the resulting water mass. Instead, results from model experiments indicate that the interannual variability of dense water characteristics is predominantly controlled by variations in the shelf inflow through a sub-surface salinity and a deep temperature signal. The origin of the variability of inflow characteristics to the Ross Sea continental shelf can be traced into the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. The temperature anomalies are induced at the continental shelf break in the western Bellingshausen Sea by fluctuations of the meridional transport of circumpolar deep water with the eastern cell of the Ross Gyre. In the Amundsen Sea, upwelling due to a persistently cyclonic wind field carries the signal into the surface mixed layer, leading to fluctuations of the vertical heat flux, anomalies of brine release near the sea ice edge, and consequently to a sub-surface salinity anomaly. With the westward flowing coastal current, both the sub-surface salinity and deep temperature signals are advected onto the Ross Sea continental shelf. Convection carries the signal of salinity variability into the deep ocean, where it interacts with modified circumpolar deep water upwelled onto the continental shelf as the second source water mass of HSSW. Sea ice formation on the Ross Sea continental shelf thus drives the vertical propagation of the signal rather than determining the signal itself.     

The mechanism of Lake Kinneret salinization as a linear reservoir

The salinity of Lake Kinneret, Israel, is significantly higher than the salinity of the water from surface streams that flow to the lake. The relatively high salinity is a result of the activity of saline springs located at the bottom of the lake.The purpose of this work is to establish a general model for the salinization mechanism of Lake Kinneret. The model is based on the main components of the annual water and solute balance. Changes in time of the solute mass of the lake were described as a differential equation of a linear reservoir on an annual time scale. The model assumes that under any long-term operation policy of the lake, the components of the annual solute and water balance stay nearly constant in time.The model was tested for both steady-state conditions, and during changes in time, against measured lake salinity over the years 1968-2000. It was found that the major changes of lake salinity throughout the years were described well, despite the variety of rainfall amounts. Predictions of the expected lake salinity changes were proposed for the cases of controlled increase or decrease of saline springs discharge to the lake; for the changes of water quantity allowed to flow into or pumped out of the lake; and for various initial salinities. Predictions agree well with previous predictions made by statistical models.     

Influences of climate,terrain and land cover on stream salinity in southeastern Australia,and implications for management through reforestation

Reforestation of cleared land has the potential to reduce groundwater recharge, salt mobilization and streamflow. Stream salinity change is the net result of changes in stream salt load and streamflow. The net effect of these changes varies spatially as a function of climate, terrain and land cover. Successful natural resource management requires methods to map the spatial variability of reforestation impacts. We investigated salinity data from 2000 bores and streamflow and salinity measurements from 27 catchments in the Goulburn–Broken region in southeast Australia to assess the main factors determining stream salinity and opportunities for management through reforestation. For groundwater systems of similar geology, relationships were found between average annual rainfall and groundwater salinity and between groundwater salinity and low‐flow salinity. Despite its simplicity, we found that the steady‐state component of a simple conceptual coupled water–salt mass balance model (BC2C) adequately explained the spatial variation in streamflow and salinity. The model results suggest the efficiency of afforestation to reduce stream salinity could be increased by more than an order of magnitude through spatial planning. However, appreciable reductions in stream salinity in large rivers through land cover change alone would still require reforestation on an unprecedented scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of salinity in fluvio-deltaic morphodynamics: A long-term modelling study

Salinity difference between terrestrial river discharge and oceanic tidal water plays a role in modifying the local flow field and, as a consequence, estuarine morphodynamics. Although widely recognized, recent numerical studies exploring the long-term morphological evolution of river-influenced estuaries with two-dimensional, depth-averaged models have mostly neglected salinity. Using a three-dimensional morphodynamic model, we aim to gain more insight into the effect of salinity on the morphodynamics of fluvio-deltaic systems. Model results indicate that the resultant estuarine morphology established after 600 years differs remarkably when a salinity gradient is included. A fan-shaped river-mouth delta exhibits less seaward expansion and is cut through by narrower channels when salinity is included. The inclusion of salinity tends to generate estuarine circulation, which favours landward sediment transport and hence limits the growth of the delta while enhancing the development of intertidal areas. The formation of deltaic channel–shoal patterns resulting from morphodynamic evolution tends to strengthen salinity stratification, which is characterized by an increased gradient Richardson number. The direction of the depth-averaged residual sediment transport over a tide may be opposite to the direction of residual velocity, indicating the significant influence of baroclinic effects on the net sediment transport direction (and hence morphological change). The effect of salinity on morphological evolution becomes less profound when the strength of tidal or fluvial forcing is dominant over the other. The effects of sediment type and flocculation, which are particularly important when salinity gradients are present, are also discussed. Overall, this study highlights that neglecting salinity to simulate long-term estuarine morphodynamics requires more careful justification, particularly when the environment is characterized by fine sediment types (favouring suspended transport), and relatively large river discharge and estuarine depth (favouring baroclinic effects). © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The history of water salinity in the Pearl River estuary,China, during the Late Quaternary

This research reconstructed the Late Quaternary salinity history of the Pearl River estuary, China, from diatom records of four sedimentary cores. The reconstruction was produced through the application of a diatom–salinity transfer function developed based on 77 modern surface sediment samples collected across the estuary from shallow marine environment to deltaic distributaries. The statistical analysis indicates that the majority of sediment samples from the cores has good modern analogues, thus the reconstructions are reliable. The reconstructed salinity history shows the older estuarine sequence formed during the last interglacial was deposited under similar salinity conditions to the younger estuarine sequence, which was formed during the present interglacial. Further analysis into the younger estuarine sequence reveals the interplays between sea level, monsoon‐driven freshwater discharge, and deltaic shoreline movement, key factors that have influenced water salinity in the estuary. In particular, a core from the delta plain shows the effects of sea‐level change and deltaic progradation, while cores from the mouth region of the estuary reveal changes of monsoon‐driven freshwater discharge. This study demonstrates the advantages of quantitative salinity reconstructions to improve the quality of reconstruction and allow direct comparison with other quantitative records and the instrumentally observed values of salinity. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contrasting mechanisms of salt delivery to the stream from three different landforms in South Eastern Australia

This study explores the pathways of salt and water movement from the landscape to the stream across major landforms, in dryland areas of south eastern Australia. It was conducted at the Livingstone Creek catchment (43 km²) a sub catchment of the Kyeamba catchment, NSW, Australia. An extensive stream salinity field monitoring network between major landforms was developed and data capture occurred from 2002 to 2004. Additional measurements of surface water isotopes were also taken to independently assess responses observed from the detailed monitoring network and assist in determining the sources of water. Flow and salt mass balances were calculated across four gauging stations for each event. The stream monitoring found patterns of salt delivery to streams were consistent during four monitored stream events. In the hill slope and colluvial fill, lower sloped, meta-sediment landforms, stream salinity responses showed the classical salinity response to an event: an initial increase of salinity at the beginning of an event (due to first flush) which then diminished as a consequence of dilution. The main difference between these landforms was that the colluvial fill lower sloped meta-sediments had sodic, low permeability soils near the stream edge. This lead to (1) less variation in stream salinities during event conditions and (2) during low base flow increases in stream salinity occurred as concentrated salts from the stream banks dissolved. For the flatter, alluvial landforms, the salinity response showed quite a different and contrasting temporal pattern: salinity continued to increase and vary directly with flow during events. For all the landforms, base flow salinity increases as flow diminished after a event although salinity responses were more lagged in the alluvial landform. This different salinity pattern in the alluvial landform is attributed to (1) for event flow, the increased contributions of more saline subsurface lateral flow of soil water from the alluvial landform compared to very fresh direct surface runoff sourced from hillslope landforms upstream and (2) for base flow, seepage of near stream alluvial groundwater through the stream banks that was less saline then the base flow water sourced upstream from the hillslope landforms. The stream water isotope values confirm the above findings by showing that, in the alluvial landforms soil water contributions are important during events and that direct surface runoff with little interaction of soil water occurs from the hill slope landforms during events. Conceptual models describing salt and water movement through the different landforms and under different antecedent catchment wetness conditions are presented. These conceptual models develop our understanding of water and solute (salt) pathways through the landscape to the stream. To date, this is one of the few experimental studies in Australia connecting landscape and stream salinisation.     

Hydrographic variability on a coastal shelf directly influenced by estuarine outflow

Hydrographic variability on the Alabama shelf just outside of Mobile Bay, a major source of river discharge into the Gulf of Mexico, is examined using time series of water column temperature and surface and bottom salinity from a mooring site with a depth of 20 m in conjunction with a series of across-shelf CTD surveys. The time series data show variability in a range of time scales. The density variation is affected by both salinity and temperature, with its relatively strong annual signal mostly determined by temperature and its year to year variability mostly determined by salinity. Seasonal mean structures of temperature, salinity, and density show a transition from estuarine to shelf conditions in which three regions with distinct seasonal characteristics in their horizontal and vertical gradient structures are identified. Correlation analysis with the available forcing functions demonstrates the influence of Mobile Bay on the variability at the mooring site. At low frequencies, river discharge from Mobile Bay has a varying influence on salinity, which is absent during the periods with unusually low discharge. At shorter synoptic time scales, both the estuarine response to the across-shelf wind stress and the shelf response to the along-shelf wind stress are significantly correlated with temperature/salinity variability: the former becoming important for the surface layer during winter whereas the latter for the bottom layer during both winter and summer. These forcing functions are important players in determining the estuarine-shelf exchange, which in turn is found to contribute to the shelf hydrographic structure.     

Daily salinity fluctuation alleviates salt stress on seedlings of the mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza

Salinity is a vital factor that regulates leaf photosynthesis and growth of mangroves, and it frequently undergoes large seasonal and daily fluctuations creating a range of environments – oligohaline to hyperhaline. Here, we examined the hypotheses that mangroves benefit opportunistically from low salinity resulting from daily fluctuations and as such, mangroves under daily fluctuating salinity (FS) grow better than those under constant salinity (CS) conditions. We compared growth, salt accumulation, gas exchange, and chlorophyll fluorescence of leaves of mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza seedlings growing in freshwater (FW), CS (15 practical salinity units, PSU), and daily FS (0–30 PSU, average of 4.8 PSU) conditions. The traits of FS-treated leaves were measured in seedlings under 15 PSU. FS-treated seedlings had greater leaf biomass than those in other treatment groups. Moreover, leaf photosynthetic rate, capacity to regulate photoelectron uptake/transfer, and leaf succulence were significantly higher in FS than in CS treatment. However, leaf water-use efficiency showed the opposite trend. In addition to higher concentrations of Na⁺ and Cl⁻, FS-treated leaves accumulated more Ca²⁺ and K⁺. We concluded that daily FS can enhance water absorption, photosynthesis, and growth of leaves, as well as alter plant biomass allocation patterns, thereby positively affecting B. gymnorhiza. Mangroves that experience daily FS may increase their adaptability by reducing salt build-up and water deficits when their roots are temporally subjected to low salinity or FW and by absorbing sufficient amounts of Na⁺ and Cl⁻ for osmotic adjustment when their roots are subsequently exposed to saline water.     

Evaluation of model complexity and space–time resolution on the prediction of long‐term soil salinity dynamics,western San Joaquin Valley,California

The numerical simulation of long‐term large‐scale (field to regional) variably saturated subsurface flow and transport remains a computational challenge, even with today's computing power. Therefore, it is appropriate to develop and use simplified models that focus on the main processes operating at the pertinent time and space scales, as long as the error introduced by the simpler model is small relative to the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal variation of boundary conditions and parameter values. This study investigates the effects of various model simplifications on the prediction of long‐term soil salinity and salt transport in irrigated soils. Average root‐zone salinity and cumulative annual drainage salt load were predicted for a 10‐year period using a one‐dimensional numerical flow and transport model (i.e. UNSATCHEM) that accounts for solute advection, dispersion and diffusion, and complex salt chemistry. The model uses daily values for rainfall, irrigation, and potential evapotranspiration rates. Model simulations consist of benchmark scenarios for different hypothetical cases that include shallow and deep water tables, different leaching fractions and soil gypsum content, and shallow groundwater salinity, with and without soil chemical reactions. These hypothetical benchmark simulations are compared with the results of various model simplifications that considered (i) annual average boundary conditions, (ii) coarser spatial discretization, and (iii) reducing the complexity of the salt‐soil reaction system. Based on the 10‐year simulation results, we conclude that salt transport modelling does not require daily boundary conditions, a fine spatial resolution, or complex salt chemistry. Instead, if the focus is on long‐term salinity, then a simplified modelling approach can be used, using annually averaged boundary conditions, a coarse spatial discretization, and inclusion of soil chemistry that only accounts for cation exchange and gypsum dissolution–precipitation. We also demonstrate that prediction errors due to these model simplifications may be small, when compared with effects of parameter uncertainty on model predictions. The proposed model simplifications lead to larger time steps and reduced computer simulation times by a factor of 1000. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diatom assemblages and quantitative reconstruction for paleosalinity from a sediment core of Chencuo Lake,southern Tibet

Changing salinity in lakes and especially in closed lakes depends mainly on the balance between precipitation, runoff and evaporation in arid and semi-arid areas, hence influencing lake levels di-rectly[1-4]. Past salinity has been recovered by a vari-ety of environmental indicators from lake sediments such as diatoms, chironomids, ostracoda, isotopes of ostracoda shells, geochemistry, and isotopes of authi-cabonates[3,5—10]. Recently, with extensive data-base study on diatom-salinity transfe…     

Salinity and periodic inundation controls on the soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum of gray mangroves

Salinity and periodic inundation are both known to have a major role in shaping the ecohydrology of mangroves through their controls on water uptake, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, gas exchanges, and nutrient availability. Salinity, in particular, can be considered one of the main abiotic regulating factors for halophytes and salt‐tolerant species, due to its influence on water use patterns and growth rate. Ecohydrological literature has rarely focused on the effects of salinity on plant transpiration, based on the fact that the terrestrial plants mostly thrive in low‐saline, unsaturated soils where the role of osmotic potential can be considered negligible. However, the effect of salinity cannot be neglected in the case of tidal species like mangroves, which have to cope with hyperosmotic conditions and waterlogging. We introduce here a first‐order ecohydrological model of the soil/plant‐atmosphere continuum of Avicennia marina—also known as gray mangrove—a highly salt‐tolerant pioneer species able to adapt to hyperarid intertidal zones and characterized by unique morphological and ecophysiological traits. The A. marina's soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum takes explicitly into account the role of water head, osmotic water potential, and water salinity in governing plant water fluxes. A. marina's transpiration is thus modeled as a function of salinity based on a simple parameterization of salt exclusion mechanisms at the root level and a modified Jarvis' expression accounting for the effects of salinity on stomatal conductance. Consistently with previous studies investigating the physiology of mangroves in response to different environmental drivers, our results highlight the major influence of salinity on mangrove transpiration when contrasted with other potential stressors such as waterlogging and water stress.     

Impact of the water salinity on the hydraulic conductivity of fen peat

Coastal peatlands represent an interface between marine and terrestrial ecosystems; their hydrology is affected by salt and fresh water inflow alike. Previous studies on bog peat have shown that pore water salinity can have an impact on the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K_s) of peat because of chemical pore dilation effects. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the impact of higher salinities (up to 3.5% NaCl) on K_s of fen peat. Two experiments employing a constant‐head upward‐flow permeameter and differing in measurement and salinity change duration were conducted. Additionally, a third experiment to determine the impact of water salinity on the release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) of the studied peat type was carried out. The results show a decrease of K_s with time, which does not depend on the water salinity but is differently shaped for different peat types. We assume pore clogging due to a conglomerate of physical, chemical, and biological processes, which rather depend on water movement rate and time than on water salinity. However, an increased water salinity did increase the DOC release. We conclude that salinity‐dependent behaviour of K_s is a function of peat chemistry and that for some peat types, salinity may only affect the DOC release without having a pronounced impact on water flow.     

Under‐ice salinity and stable isotope distribution of Saroma‐ko Lagoon,Hokkaido, northern Japan

In winter, lakes and lagoons at high altitudes or high latitudes have interesting hydrological cycles that differ from those in other seasons or in other regions, because water surfaces are covered with ice. Hydrological balances of lakes and lagoons are complex dynamic systems, and to elucidate them, isotopic tracers of water have been used as effective tools along with observations of precipitation, evaporation, inflows, and outflows. Here, to understand hydrological processes during freezing periods in the brackish Saroma‐ko Lagoon, Hokkaido, northern Japan, we examined horizontal and vertical distributions of salinity and isotope compositions of lagoon water and ice in 2005 and 2006. Horizontal and vertical gradients of salinity and isotope compositions were observed from the river mouth to the sea channel, and factors determining these distributions were considered. The mixing of freshwater and seawater and a freezing effect were presumed to be factors in relationships between salinity and isotopes and in relationships between surface waters and ice just above the water. A simple box model for water balance was constructed based on these putative factors to reproduce the distributions of salinity and isotope compositions of surface waters and ice. An evaluation of the model revealed that this hydrological system is controlled primarily by horizontal advection of the epilimnion, freshwater influx, and the ice growth rate. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term final void salinity prediction for a post‐mining landscape in the Hunter Valley,New South Wales,Australia

Opencast mining alters surface and subsurface hydrology of a landscape both during and post‐mining. At mine closure, following opencast mining in mines with low overburden to coal ratios, a void is left in the final landform. This final void is the location of the active mine pit at closure. Voids are generally not infilled within the mines' lifetime, because of the prohibitive cost of earthwork operations, and they become post‐mining water bodies or pit lakes. Water quality is a significant issue for pit lakes. Groundwater within coal seams and associated rocks can be saline, depending on the nature of the strata and groundwater circulation patterns. This groundwater may be preferentially drawn to and collected in the final void. Surface runoff to the void will not only collect salts from rainfall and atmospheric fallout, but also from the ground surface and the weathering of fresh rock. As the void water level rises, its evaporative surface area increases, concentrating salts that are held in solution. This paper presents a study of the long term, water quality trends in a post‐mining final void in the Hunter Valley, New South Wales, Australia. This process is complex and occurs long term, and modelling offers the only method of evaluating water quality. Using available geochemical, climate and hydrogeological data as inputs into a mass‐balance model, water quality in the final void was found to increase rapidly in salinity through time (2452 to 8909 mg l⁻¹ over 500 years) as evaporation concentrates the salt in the void and regional groundwater containing high loads of salt continues to flow into the void. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.