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1.
Uri Schwartz 《水文研究》2016,30(20):3704-3716
Although floods in arid environments have been documented, considerable uncertainties still exist as to the floodwater and in‐channel infiltration relationships. In desert alluvial channels, the prime cause of flood discharge attenuation is water loss by infiltration into the alluvium. The present study documents flows in Nahal Zin, Israel, their infiltration into the channel bed, and the resultant change in the alluvium moisture content. The study uses a systematic combination of two experimental scales, the cross‐section scale and the reach scale. Direct measurements of moisture distribution in the active channel during floods were made using time domain reflectometry. Twelve flow events were recorded. Flow patterns and their respective alluvium moisture content were analysed. A trench was dug in the alluvium for the study of alluvium properties and time domain reflectometry sensor installation. The alluvium was characterized in terms of size distribution and sediment stratigraphy, structure, and composition. Two main alluvial structures (closed and open) affected the advance of the wetting front and water losses. Alluvial units with an open structure (clast‐supported) reached their maximum moisture content faster than closed structure units (matrix‐supported). Small‐sized particles and matrix‐supported layers reduced infiltration rate. The measured velocities of the wetting front were 0.33 and 2.88 m h?1 for small and large floods respectively. The wetting front moved downward. Lateral movement was negligible. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
—Observational studies indicate that large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by phases of accelerated seismic release (ASR) characterized by cumulative Benioff strain following a power law time-to-failure relation with a term (t f?t) m , where t f is the failure time of the large event and observed values of m are close to 0.3. We discuss properties of ASR and related aspects of seismicity patterns associated with several theoretical frameworks. The subcritical crack growth approach developed to describe deformation on a crack prior to the occurrence of dynamic rupture predicts great variability and low asymptotic values of the exponent m that are not compatible with observed ASR phases. Statistical physics studies assuming that system-size failures in a deforming region correspond to critical phase transitions predict establishment of long-range correlations of dynamic variables and power-law statistics before large events. Using stress and earthquake histories simulated by the model of Ben-Zion (1996) for a discrete fault with quenched heterogeneities in a 3-D elastic half space, we show that large model earthquakes are associated with nonrepeating cyclical establishment and destruction of long-range stress correlations, accompanied by nonstationary cumulative Benioff strain release. We then analyze results associated with a regional lithospheric model consisting of a seismogenic upper crust governed by the damage rheology of Lyakhovsky et al. (1997) over a viscoelastic substrate. We demonstrate analytically for a simplified 1-D case that the employed damage rheology leads to a singular power-law equation for strain proportional to (t f?t)?1/3, and a nonsingular power-law relation for cumulative Benioff strain proportional to (t f?t)1/3. A simple approximate generalization of the latter for regional cumulative Benioff strain is obtained by adding to the result a linear function of time representing a stationary background release. To go beyond the analytical expectations, we examine results generated by various realizations of the regional lithospheric model producing seismicity following the characteristic frequency-size statistics, Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution, and mode switching activity. We find that phases of ASR exist only when the seismicity preceding a given large event has broad frequency-size statistics. In such cases the simulated ASR phases can be fitted well by the singular analytical relation with m = ?1/3, the nonsingular equation with m = 0.2, and the generalized version of the latter including a linear term with m = 1/3. The obtained good fits with all three relations highlight the difficulty of deriving reliable information on functional forms and parameter values from such data sets. The activation process in the simulated ASR phases is found to be accommodated both by increasing rates of moderate events and increasing average event size, with the former starting a few years earlier than the latter. The lack of ASR in portions of the seismicity not having broad frequency-size statistics may explain why some large earthquakes are preceded by ASR and other are not. The results suggest that observations of moderate and large events contain two complementary end-member predictive signals on the time of future large earthquakes. In portions of seismicity following the characteristic earthquake distribution, such information exists directly in the associated quasi-periodic temporal distribution of large events. In portions of seismicity having broad frequency-size statistics with random or clustered temporal distribution of large events, the ASR phases have predictive information. The extent to which natural seismicity may be understood in terms of these end-member cases remains to be clarified. Continuing studies of evolving stress and other dynamic variables in model calculations combined with advanced analyses of simulated and observed seismicity patterns may lead to improvements in existing forecasting strategies.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.  相似文献   

4.
A study of karst depression enlargement through time on the Western Highland Rim (physiographic province), based on two sets of aerial photography (1937, 1972) and field work, indicates that areal growth rates (dA/dt, m2/a) depend upon the surficial geologic setting. Areal growth rates were calculated from rates of long axis (dL/dt) and mean width (dW/dt) enlargement assuming an elliptical plan shape. Areal growth rates averaged 40, 70, and 100 m2/century for loessial, clayey residual, and silty colluvial surficial material, respectively. Estimates of average apparent age of karst depressions in each of the three surficial materials, based on linear growth rates, varied from 25,000 to 65,000 years B.P. An occurrence of mastodon (Mammut americanum) and ground sloth (Megalonyx jeffersoni) from the Darks Mill depression as well as a pollen record from another depression dating from the Late Wisconsin glacial maximum in the same geomorphic setting yielded dates compatible with estimates of depression age.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

In this paper we analyse the stationary mean energy density tensor Tij = BiBj for the x 2-sphere. This model is one of the simplest possible turbulent dynamos, originally due to Krause and Steenbeck (1967): a conducting sphere of radius R with homogeneous, isotropic and stationary turbulent convection, no differential rotation and negligible resistivity. The stationary solution of the (linear) equation for Tij is found analytically. Only Trr , T θθ and T φφ are unequal to zero, and we present their dependence on the radial distance r.

The stationary solution depends on two coefficients describing the turbulent state: the diffusion coefficient β≈?u2c/3 and the vorticity coefficient γ ≈ ?|?×u|2c/3 where u(r, t) is the turbulent velocity and c its correlation time. But the solution is independent of the dynamo coefficient α≈??u·?×u?τc/3 although α does occur in the equation for Tij . This result confirms earlier conclusions that helicity is not required for magnetic field generation. In the stationary state, magnetic energy is generated by the vorticity and transported to the boundary, where it escapes at the same rate. The solution presented contains one free parameter that is connected with the distribution of B over spatial scales at the boundary, about which Tij gives no information. We regard this investigation as a first step towards the analysis of more complicated, solar-type dynamos.  相似文献   

6.
江剑民  谷湘潜  游性恬 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):131-137
本文简要叙述了一阶矩突变扫描式t检验和二阶矩突变扫描式F检验算法,并应用于长江宜昌水文站1882-2002年间历年月平均径流量的实测序列,划分出24个年际至十年际时间尺度的相对5级旱、涝时段及其变率特征,与有关长江上游洪水、干旱灾害的历史记载相吻合.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

Daily flow records, rainfall data and tropical cyclone maps during 1970–1998 are used to document the impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) on floods in the Rewa River system, Viti Levu, Fiji. Floods are large, brief, isolated events caused by TCs and non-TC tropical rainstorms. More floods are caused by tropical rainstorms than by TCs, but TC floods are larger. The log Pearson Type III distribution consistently provided the best fit to partial duration flood series and the widely-recommended generalized Pareto distribution performed very poorly, underscoring the need to test a variety of distributions for a particular geographic location. Tropical cyclones occur more often in Fiji during negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and all TCs that occurred during El Niño conditions caused floods. Peak flood discharges caused by TCs are inversely correlated with the SOI, reflecting possible links with tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation intensity.  相似文献   

8.
The “earthquake nucleation” is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation dΘ/dt=C/(t ft) n , the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake withM S7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted successfully if the coefficientr 2 attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than, one-half the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock. Contribution No. 95A0024, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. This study is the "Eighth-Five" contract project ofSSB.  相似文献   

9.
This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of ?5 to ?17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.  相似文献   

10.
Relations among hydroclimatic and channel planform changes on Squamish River are presented for the period 1956–2007. Squamish River basin occupies 3600 km2 of mountainous terrain in south‐western British Columbia, about 50 km north of Vancouver. The magnitude, volume and duration of extreme floods (Q ≥ 1500 m3/s) exhibit respective temporal increases of 50, 450 and 300%. The increase in extreme floods is attributed to the intensification of late‐season (August–December) Pacific storms that have produced increases in precipitation amounts, intensity and duration of respectively 340, 200 and 200% over the same period. Changes in floodplain‐surface area calculated from the geographic information system (GIS) differencing of sequential large‐scale aerial photographs indicate that the rate of geomorphic change in Squamish River has accelerated during the 1980s to the mid‐1990s. Among four study reaches of varying planform, erosional, depositional and cumulative changes in floodplain surface‐area have rapidly increased. Channel‐change activity after 1980 has increased by a factor of two to six compared with the period prior to 1980. Erosion is currently outpacing deposition in the majority of study reaches. Although channel geometry generally exhibits no uniform pattern of response to the increase in extreme floods, the meandering reaches have straightened over the duration of the study period. The increase in the magnitude and duration of the annual flood appears to be the principal cause of this recent acceleration of channel change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Using classical diffusion theory, we present a mathematical technique for the determination of 4He concentration profiles in minerals. This approach should prove useful for constraining the low-temperature cooling histories of individual samples and for correcting (U–Th)/He ages for partial diffusive loss. The calculation assumes that the mineral of interest contains an artificially produced and uniform distribution of 3He obtained by proton irradiation [Shuster et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 217 (2004) 19–32]. In minerals devoid of natural helium, this isotope allows measurement of He diffusion coefficients; in minerals with measurable radiogenic He, it permits determination of 4He profiles arising during ingrowth and diffusion in nature. The 4He profile can be extracted from stepwise degassing experiments in which the 4He/3He ratio is measured. The evolution of the 4He/3He ratio as a function of cumulative 3He released can be compared with forward models to constrain the shape of the profile. Alternatively, we present a linear inversion that can be used to directly solve for the unknown 4He distribution. The inversion incorporates a standard regularization technique to filter the influence of random measurement errors on the solution. Using either approach we show that stepwise degassing data can yield robust and high-resolution information on the 4He profile. Profiles of radiogenic He are a sensitive function of the time–Temperate (tT) path that a cooling sample experienced. Thus, by step heating a proton-irradiated sample it is possible to restrict the sample’s acceptable tT paths. The sensitivity of this approach was explored by forward-modeling 4He profiles resulting from a range of realistic tT paths, using apatite as an example. Results indicate that 4He profiles provide rich information on tT paths, especially when the profiles are coupled with (U–Th)/He cooling ages on the same sample. Samples that experienced only moderate diffusive loss have 4He concentration profiles that are rounded at the edge but uniform in the core of the diffusion domain. Such profiles can be identified by nearly invariant 4He/3He ratios after the first few to few tens of percent of 3He have been extracted by step heating. We show how such data can be used to correct (U–Th)/He ages for partial diffusive loss.  相似文献   

12.
Glacier and permafrost hazards such as glacial‐lake outburst floods and rock–ice avalanches cause significant socio‐economic damages worldwide, and these processes may increase in frequency and magnitude if the atmospheric temperature rises. In the extratropical Andes nearly 200 human deaths were linked to these processes during the twentieth century. We analysed bibliographical sources and satellite images to document the glacier and permafrost dynamics that have caused socio‐economic damages in this region in historic time (including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock–ice avalanches and lahars) to unravel their causes and geomorphological impacts. In the extratropical Andes, at least 15 ice‐dammed lakes and 16 moraine‐dammed lakes have failed since the eighteenth century, causing dozens of floods. Some floods rank amongst the largest events ever recorded (5000 × 106 m3 and 229 × 106 m3, respectively). Outburst flood frequency has increased in the last three decades, partially as a consequence of long‐term (decades to centuries) climatic changes, glaciers shrinkage, and lake growth. Short‐term (days to weeks) meteorological conditions (i.e. intense and/or prolonged rainfall and high temperature that increased meltwater production) have also triggered outburst floods and mass movements. Enormous mass failures of glaciers and permafrost (> 10 × 106 m3) have impacted lakes, glaciers, and snow‐covered valleys, initiating chain reactions that have ultimately resulted in lake tsunamis and far‐reaching (> 50 km) flows. The eruption of ice‐covered volcanoes has also caused dozens of damaging lahars with volumes up to 45 × 106 m3. Despite the importance of these events, basic information about their occurrence (e.g. date, causes, and geomorphological impact), which is well established in other mountain ranges, is absent in the extratropical Andes. A better knowledge of the processes involved can help to forecast and mitigate these events. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Soil erosion and nutrient losses with surface runoff in the loess plateau in China cause severe soil quality degradation and water pollution. It is driven by both rainfall impact and runoff flow that usually take place simultaneously during a rainfall event. However, the interactive effect of these two processes on soil erosion has received limited attention. The objectives of this study were to better understand the mechanism of soil erosion, solute transport in runoff, and hydraulic characteristics of flow under the simultaneous influence of rainfall and shallow clear‐water flow scouring. Laboratory flume experiments with three rainfall intensities (0, 60, and 120 mm h−1) and four scouring inflow rates (10, 20, 30, and 40 l min−1) were conducted to evaluate their interactive effect on runoff. Results indicate that both rainfall intensity and scouring inflow rate play important roles on runoff formation, soil erosion, and solute transport in the surface runoff. A rainfall splash and water scouring interactive effect on the transport of sediment and solute in runoff were observed at the rainfall intensity of 60 mm h−1 and scouring inflow rates of 20 l min−1. Cumulative sediment mass loss (Ms) was found to be a linear function of cumulative runoff volume (Wr) for each treatment. Solute transport was also affected by both rainfall intensity and scouring inflow rate, and the decrease in bromide concentration in the runoff with time fitted to a power function well. Reynolds number (Re) was a key hydraulic parameter to determine erodability on loess slopes. The Darcy–Weisbach friction coefficients (f) decreased with the Reynolds numbers (Re), and the average soil and water loss rate (Ml) increased with the Reynolds numbers (Re) on loess slope for both scenarios with or without rainfall impact. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Abstract

We discuss the propagation of internal waves in a rotating stratified unbounded fluid with randomly varying stability frequency, N. The first order smoothing approximation is used to derive the dispersion relation for the mean wave field when N is of the form N 2 = N o 2(1 + ?μ), where μ is a centered stationary random function of either depth (z) or time (t), N o = constant and O < ?2 ≦ 1. Expressions are then derived for the change in phase speed and growth rate due to the random fluctuations μ; in particular, attention is focused on the behaviour of these expressions for short and long correlation lengths (case μ = μ(z)) and times (case μ = μ(t)). For the case μ = μ(z), which represents a model for the temperature and salinity fine-structure in the ocean, the appropriate statistics of the fluctuations observed at station P (50°N, 145°W) have been incorporated into the theory to estimate the actual importance of the effects due to these random fluctuations. It is found that the phase speed of the mean wave decreases significantly if (i) the wavelength is short compared to g/No 2 or (ii) the wave number vector is essentially horizontal and the wave frequency is very close to N o. Also, the random fluctuations cause a significant growth (decay) in the amplitude of a wave propagating upwards (downwards) through a depth of a few kilometers. However, in the direction of energy propagation, the kinetic energy is conserved. Finally, it is shown that the average effect of the depth dependent fluctuations at station P is to slightly decrease the stability frequency and the magnitude of the group velocity.  相似文献   

16.
Rainfall interception in forests is influenced by properties of the canopy that tend to vary over small distances. Our objectives were: (i) to determine the variables needed to model the interception loss of the canopy of a lower montane forest in south Ecuador, i.e. the storage capacity of the leaves S and of the trunks and branches St, and the fractions of direct throughfall p and stemflow pt; (ii) to assess the influence of canopy density and epiphyte coverage of trees on the interception of rainfall and subsequent evaporation losses. The study site was located on the eastern slope of the eastern cordillera in the south Ecuadorian Andes at 1900–2000 m above sea level. We monitored incident rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow between April 1998 and April 2001. In 2001, the leaf area index (LAI), inferred from light transmission, and epiphyte coverage was determined. The mean annual incident rainfall at three gauging stations ranged between 2319 and 2561 mm. The mean annual interception loss at five study transects in the forest varied between 591 and 1321 mm, i.e. between 25 and 52% of the incident rainfall. Mean S was estimated at 1·91 mm for relatively dry weeks with a regression model and at 2·46 mm for all weeks with the analytical Gash model; the respective estimates of mean St were 0·04 mm and 0·09 mm, of mean p were 0·42 and 0·63, and of mean pt were 0·003 and 0·012. The LAI ranged from 5·19 to 9·32. Epiphytes, mostly bryophytes, covered up to 80% of the trunk and branch surfaces. The fraction of direct throughfall p and the LAI correlated significantly with interception loss (Pearson's correlation coefficient r = −0·77 and 0·35 respectively, n = 40). Bryophyte and lichen coverage tended to decrease St and vascular epiphytes tended to increase it, although there was no significant correlation between epiphyte coverage and interception loss. Our results demonstrate that canopy density influences interception loss but only explains part of the total variation in interception loss. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
18.
Land surface soil moisture (SSM) is an important variable for hydrological, ecological, and meteorological applications. A multi‐linear model has recently been proposed to determine the SSM content from the combined diurnal evolution of both land surface temperature (LST) and net surface shortwave radiation (NSSR) with the parameters TN (the LST mid‐morning rising rate divided by the NSSR rising rate during the same period) and td (the time of daily maximum temperature). However, in addition to the problem that all the coefficients of the multi‐linear model depend on the atmospheric conditions, the model also suffers from the problems of the nonlinearity of TN as a function of the SSM content and the uncertainty of determining the td from the diurnal evolution of the LST. To address these problems, a modified multi‐linear model was developed using the logarithm of TN and normalizing td by the mid‐morning temperature difference instead of using the TN and td. Except for the constant term, the coefficients of all other variables in the modified multi‐linear model proved to be independent of the atmospheric conditions. Using the relevant simulation data, results from the modified multi‐linear model show that the SSM content can be determined with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.030m3/m3, provided that the constant term is known or estimated day to day. The validation of the model was conducted using the field measurements at the Langfang site in 2008 in China. A higher correlation is achieved (coefficient of determination: R2 = 0.624, RMSE = 0.107m3/m3) between the measured SSM content and the SSM content estimated using the modified multi‐linear model with the coefficients determined from the simulation data. Another experiment is also conducted to estimate the SSM content using the modified model with the constant term calibrated each day by one‐spot measurements at the site. The estimation result has a relatively larger error (RMSE = 0.125m3/m3). Additionally, the uncertainty of the determination of the coefficients is analysed using the field measurements, and the results indicate that the SSM content obtained using the modified model accurately characterizes the surface soil moisture condition. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
A study was made of the nitrogen (N) inputs to, and exports from, a stream draining a pasture catchment near Hamilton, New Zealand, in order to plan measures for minimizing N losses to natural waters. An estimated 7 kg N ha?1 was exported from the catchment during 1981 of which 86 per cent was in reduced forms (Kjeldahl-N, TKN) and the remainder as nitrate-N (NO3-N). Virtually all of the reduced N inputs came from saturated overland flow whereas NO3-N inputs were dominantly subsurface derived. The TKN exported by individual storm events could be predicted (R2 = 0.97) from peak flow and from the peak flow rate in the seven days preceding the storm. A TKN balance for eight events showed that except for large floods (return period approximately a year) the stream system was a net sink for TKN. During large floods, scouring of the organic rich seepage areas resulted in the stream system itself being a net source of TKN. Microbial assays for nitrification and denitrification activity indicated that the main nitrate source was the well-aerated greywacke and ash soils and that the permanently saturated seepage zones were a significant nitrate sink. An in-stream nitrate addition experiment showed that up to 20mg N m?2 h?1 was removed from the stream. Simultaneous measurements of in situ denitrification activity demonstrated that only about 1 per cent of this removal could be accounted for by denitrification. It was inferred that plant uptake was responsible for the remainder. Retention of near-stream seepage areas is suggested as a measure for minimizing NO3-N export, whilst removal of stock from seasonally saturated areas during periods of saturatior should reduce soil loss and hence TKN inputs to the stream.  相似文献   

20.
Sediment cores retrieved from landslide‐dammed Loon Lake recorded events back to the 5th century AD in a forested, mountainous catchment, thereby providing an opportunity to compare the impacts of known recent perturbations, including floods and timber harvesting with those of an early period in the cores, floods, fires, and earthquakes. High‐resolution multi‐parameter (grain size, %TC, %TN, and magnetic susceptibility) data allowed the core stratigraphy to be classified as background sedimentation and events. 137Cs and radiocarbon dating, as well as a varved record in the last 75 years provided age control. Mean mass accumulation rate from 1939 to 1978 AD, the time of peak timber harvest and a cool wet phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, was 0.79 (0.74–0.92, 95% C.L.) g cm‐2 y‐1, significantly higher than mean rates of both the more recent contemporary period (coincident with the passing of the legislation that regulated harvesting practices in the region), 1979–2012 AD, at 0.58 (0.48‐0.70) and the entire early period, 0.44 (0.41–0.46). Several event deposits are coeval with independently estimated ages of eight Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes in the early period, including the 1700 AD Mw 9.0 event. These deposits are predominantly formed by hyperpycnal flows, as are the known event deposits in the contemporary period. The high mass accumulation rate and greater frequency of thick event deposits during the early contemporary period point to the extraordinary role of timber harvesting in priming the landscape for subsequent sedimentary delivery during floods. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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