近百年来冷圈波动

本世纪CO_2的增温导致了冷圈波动。中纬度山地冰川的普遍退缩与加速消融引起了海面持续上升。格陵兰冰盖目前尚未处于显著的负平衡状态,边缘区在变薄,中心区在增厚。南极大陆冰盖还在增长,但基底可能发生退缩。北极海冰在1935—1960年期间退缩了10％,南极海冰面积在1973—1980年间减少了2.5×10~6km~2。大陆积雪的变化主要表现在中纬度地区,并呈现出区域性差异。而高纬度地区,大陆冰盖的降雪量有增加趋势。     

Development of Geological Science in China in the Twentieth Century

On the occurrence of the celebration of the Fiftieth An-niversary for the establishm ent of the People’s Republic ofChina,we contribute this paper entitled“Developm ent of Ge-ological Science in China in the Twentieth Century”.Thiscomes out from a review of the newly published book aboutthe history of geological disciplines:“Fifty Years of Geologi-cal Science in China”.The draftof the paper was formed aftera discussion between the authors.It deals with the existingstate of geologica…     

20世纪科学水文学的崛起

参阅了水文学发展历程中具有里程碑意义的杰出出版物,评述了水文科学基础的成长历程。将水文学发展史划分四个时期,每一个时期各有其特点。这四个时期是:(a)经验时期(1900～1930);(b)推理时期(1930～1950);(c)理论化时期(1950～1975);(d)计算机化时期(1975～2000).     

世纪之交的水文研究

基于第二十二届国际大地测量与地球物理大会的动态,分析出世纪之交水文学研究的三大基本特点.其一是强调人类活动对水循环的影响的研究,主要表现为研究土地利用变化对来自面源的氮负荷的影响、城市化进程加快对地表和地下水质的影响、河流对水文系统、泥沙输送及营养负荷的变化的生态响应和地下水和地表水在质与量上的相互作用.其二是十分重视区域尺度的水文的研究.包括区域及全球尺度资料库的建立和区域水分通量的计算.其三是集成应用示踪剂、遥感及先进的水文测验技术进行水文机理研究.     

新世纪我国地质钻探技术发展的思考

探讨了新世纪我国地质钻探技术的发展，论述了综合钻探技术是我国未来地质钻探技术的发展方向，分析了发展综合钻探技术的必要性及有利条件，并提出了前期应做的准备工作。     

Zadar on the Crossroad of Nationalisms in the 20th Century

Zadar, the ex capital of Dalmatia (South Croatia), within the borders of Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, reached the 20th century as a well developed administrative and governing centre. It is a city situated on the eastern (Croatian) Adriatic coast, with an almost 3000 years old tradition and rich cultural and art heritage. After the disintegration of Austria-Hungary, the Kingdom of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs was proclaimed (later: the Kingdom of Yugoslavia). Zadar, as a separate enclave (in Italian named Zara), was annexed to the Kingdom of Italy. It was the result of the Treaty of Rapallo, by which Zadar was separated from its region. This alienated enclave covered 57 km² and there were about 20,000 inhabitants. In this way, the normal regional function of Zadar was interrupted which lasted untill the end of WW II. It was a period of isolation, economic stagnation, smuggling, political marginality and military-strategical importance. Zadar became not only one of the symbols of the failure of Croats to create their independent state after Austro-Hungarian disintegration but also a symbol of the realisation of nationalistic aspirations of the Kingdoms of Italy and Serbia. In the first place Zadar lost its function as a leading governmental and strong economical centre of South Croatia (Dalmatia). The great majority of Croatian inhabitants had to leave the city. Thousands of Italians immigrated, which led to a complete change in the ethnic structure. The most disastrous consequence was the air-raid destruction of Zadar during WW II., in which about 5000 people died. After the destroyed town had been returned to the motherland Republic of Croatia, the restoration took a long time. The borders of Zadar district were often changed, its territory reduced or increased. Since Croatia gained independence, the role of this geographic area has become politically extremely important. Today, Zadar numbers 80,000 inhabitants. The recent NATO intention of installing a logistic basis near it (1998) also proves that strategic and geopolitical interests, regarding this city and its region, continue.     

Exploration Progress in China in the 21st Century

Please?refer?to?the?attachment(s)?for?more?details.     

Century scale climate change in the central highlands of Sri Lanka

In this study, an analysis of century scale climate trends in the central highlands of Sri Lanka is presented. Monthly rainfall and temperature records of the period 1869–2006 from five climatological stations were analyzed. The trend is calculated by the least square regression analysis and the significance of the observed trend is estimated using the Mann–Kendall statistic. The results clearly show that there is a statistically significant decrease in annual rainfall in the western slopes of the central highlands. Throughout the last century, the annual reduction of rainfall in Nuwara Eliya which is at an altitude of 1895 m was 5.2 mm/year. The decrease is largely due to the reduction in southwest monsoon rainfall which contributes to 75% of the total reduction. No significant change was observed on the eastern side of the central highlands which receives rainfall predominantly from the northeast monsoons. The mean annual temperature in the mountainous region shows a uniform increasing trend which is in line with the 100-year global temperature increase of 0.8 ± 0.2^°C. Kandy, which is at an altitude of 477 m and closely linked with the rainfall climatology of Nuwara Eliya, showed no significant change in the mean annual temperature. If the current trend continues, in another 100 years, western and eastern slopes of central highlands will receive the same amount of rainfall from the southwest monsoon and the northeast monsoon which will have far reaching consequences for Sri Lanka’s economy and the ecology of the hill country.     

本世纪中国西北地区的干旱变化

本文分析了陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海和新疆五省区有气象观测资料以来的干旱变化,并与历史时期的变化做了比较。同时还对该地区干旱变化与气温的关系作了分析。     

Impact of Flood Disasters on Taiwan in the Last Quarter Century

The increasing natural disasters, especially floods during the last quarter century, are raising the economic losses in Taiwan. The most severe hazard in Taiwan is flooding induced by typhoons and storms in summer and autumn. By comparing the rivers around the world, the ones in Taiwan have the steepest slopes, the largest discharge per unit drainage area, and the shortest time of concentrations. Rapid urbanization without proper land uses managements usually worsen the flood problems. Consequently, flood hazards mitigation has become the most essential task for Taiwan to deal with. Although the government keeps improving flood defense structures, the flood damage grows continuously. In this article, possible flood mitigation strategies are identified for coping with complex environmental and social decisions with flood risk involved.     

Variations in the Aboveground Phytomass in Northern Eurasia in the 21st Century

Doklady Earth Sciences - Changes in the phytomass of the ecosystems of Northern Eurasia were traced based on the results of modeling and analysis of multispectral satellite imagery (MODIS archives...     

近百年来气候变化

根据当前气候变化研究中的新发现和新观点,综述了近百年来气候变化的属性成因和机制。阐述了气候是一个高度复杂的非线性系统,内部充满着错综复杂的耦合过程和反馈循环。重点介绍了CO_2含量在大气中的增加、火山喷发和海气异常等在近百年气候变化中所起的重要作用,并把气候变化与冷圈波动联系起来。     

新世纪俄罗斯找矿地球化学

在系统跟踪研究国内外地质期刊文献的基础上,梳理了新世纪找矿地球化学面临形势和存在的重大问题,全面总结了近十年来,俄罗斯有关找矿地球化学基础理论和方法论、区域地球化学调查方法与应用,以及地质-地球化学找矿模型的研制与应用等众多方面的思路和做法。研究认为,俄罗斯首创的多目标地球化学填图技术可有效地提高国家地质图的质量,为矿产资源量的综合评价和生态环境的评估及一系列基础问题的解决,提供详细的信息。同时,还指出俄罗斯地球化学家为解决新世纪的找矿问题,加大了技术创新,重点聚焦于提高地球化学找矿信号的衬度和强度,提高运用地质-地球化学找矿模型的效用,完善处理地球化学数据的计算技术,以实现地球化学场与地质、地球物理场的综合等,诸创新点和思路值得参考借鉴。     

新世纪亚洲风尘系统地球化学研究进展

简要评述了20世纪亚洲风尘沉积地球化学研究的主要成果,总结了新世纪以来亚洲风尘沉积地球化学在研究内容、方法、时间尺度及年代学方面的主要进展.较详细概述了最近十余年风尘沉积物在环境与气候替代性指标研究方面获得的新成果,并从矿物特征、元素地球化学、同位素和单矿物地球化学指标方面示踪风尘沉积物源研究进行了总结.指出亚洲风尘地球化学研究应在空间上从黄土-沙漠区向中亚内陆、西北太平洋扩展;在时间上拓展到中新世以来的风尘沉积;方法上应结合大气环流、地貌过程等,进行综合分析,并开拓新的测试手段.此外,应加强现代风尘过程的研究.亚洲风尘与风尘沉积地球化学研究的目的是解决风尘的产生、搬运和沉积的地球化学过程与环境变迁.     

Nature of the Decrease in Global Warming at the Beginning of the 21st Century

Variations in the temperature of the Earth’s surface over the period 1850–2014 are reproduced and analyzed using seven historical calculations in the INM-CM5 climate model following the scenarios suggested for the CMIP6 project of comparison of climate models. In all calculations, the mean surface temperature increased by 0.8 K to the date of final calculation (2014), which is consistent with observations. The periods of accelerated warming (1920–1940 and 1980–2000) and its stabilization (1950–1975 and 2000–2014) are correctly reproduced by the model. The decrease in global warming of 2000–2014, which is hardly reproduced by the models in the CMIP5 experiment, is reproduced due to the more precise scenario of variation in the solar constant of CMIP6 protocols. The spatial structure of warming for last 30 years is also reproduced by the model.

     

钻探工业的新世纪

人们企盼了一年之久的新世纪终于来临了,全世界的人们都在以各种各样的方式庆祝新世纪的到来。公元纪年以来,人类经历了20次世纪交替,但从来没有像今天这样,庄严地告别一个世纪,隆重地迎接一个世纪。这是一个激动人心的时刻,每一个人都应该为之庆幸,我们赶上了这千载难逢的世纪交会。迎着21世纪的第一缕阳光,抚今追昔,我们感慨万千;展望未来,我们心潮澎湃。刚刚结束的20世纪,是一个风云变幻、波澜壮阔的百年,在这百年里,科技进步所创造的文明价值远远超过了人类几千年历史的总和。钻探,是中华文明古国的伟大发明之一。四川自贡的     

Surges of the Pamir Glaciers in the First 20 Years of the 21st Century

Doklady Earth Sciences - The activation of surging glaciers in the Pamirs over the past 20 years has been studied. Glacier surges occurred in the basins of the Surkhob, Muksu, Sauksai, Seldara...     

21世纪IODP大洋综合钻探计划进程

21世纪大洋钻探计划是一顶国际科学钻探计划 ,基于日本和美国分别提供的 2艘深海钻探船的即将付之运作 ,该计划将于 2 0 0 3年 10月开始实施。美国提供的无隔水管钻探船 (就是执行ＯＤＰ计划的ＪＯＩＤＥＳＲｅｓｏｌｕｔｉｏｎ号钻探船 )将于 2 0 0 5年进行施工。装备隔水管的日本钻探船在 2 0 0 1年初即行建造 ,将于 2 0 0 6年开始进行其科学钻探活动。 2 1世纪ＩＯＤＰ大洋综合钻探计划进程初步方案见表 1。表 1　 2 1世纪ＩＯＤＰ大洋综合钻探计划进程初步方案21世纪IODP大洋     

敦德冰芯19世纪中叶以来的环境记录

基于青藏高原祁连山敦德冰芯中近130来主要离子含量的实验测定结果，通过与高原其他冰芯的对比分析，确认冰芯中Ca^2 和CI^-可以分别作为西北干旱区和柴达木盆地干湿变化的指示器，从冰芯化学成分变化特征的角度详细讨论了我国西北干旱区近代环境演化特征。发现近代我国西北干旱区最干旱时期发生在1920－1940年，柴达木盆地蒸发作用在1890－1915年最强烈。20世纪50年代以后，西北干旱区和柴达木盆地干旱程度逐渐缓解，到80年代干旱程度达到130a来的最低水平。     

走向21世纪的矿床学

文章简要回顾了百年来矿床学取得的重要进展，包括：（1）矿床成因分类的建立；（2）层控矿床研究与矿床多成因理论的兴起；（3）板块构造与区域成矿规律；（4）矿床模型；(5)型矿床研究；（6）海洋现代热液成矿作用的发现；（7）成矿演化的不可逆性与节律性等。针对21世纪中人类社会可持续发展的需要，矿床学研究出现了两个新趋势；（1）全球化；（2）矿业开发与环境保护一体化。面临着三个主要研究领域；（1）成矿理论的推陈出新；（2）研究开发新型矿产资源，建立广义的矿产资源地质学；（3）建立绿色矿业体制所需的矿床学基础研究。