中国崩塌,滑坡,泥石流成灾特点与减灾对策

根据我国崩塌、滑坡、泥石流（简称：崩滑流）成灾特点和防治能力，笔者认为：实行灾害分级管理，推进减灾社会化，是防治崩滑流灾害的根本出路；建立新的减灾体系，必须与深化改革及山区脱贫致富相结合，才能取得成效。     

水动力型滑坡形成运动机理与防控减灾技术

水动力型滑坡是指在冰川融雪、降雨、水位变动、地表径流及地下水活动等水动力因素驱动下而发生的斜坡岩土体失稳灾害。西南地区是水动力型滑坡尤其是库区滑坡的高发区,其失稳破坏直接威胁到人类的生命财产和基础设施的安全,且有可能造成深远的次生灾害,提升水动力型滑坡灾害的监测预警、综合防控与应急处置水平极为迫切。水动力型滑坡易发于松散堆积层、破碎岩体、软岩以及含有软弱夹层的斜坡等地层,地质环境、水文活动以及人类活动干扰等因素的长期作用在水动力型滑坡的孕育过程中起着关键作用。斜坡在各种不利因素的持续交替作用下,逐渐产生变形破坏,稳定性不断降低并趋于极限失稳状态,最终在短期水文条件的改变下而导致整体失稳破坏。斜坡失稳后的滑坡动力过程非常复杂,尤其是特大型高位滑坡,在运动过程中可能会产生强烈的冲击破碎和沿程侵蚀铲刮现象,导致滑坡运动性态的改变和堆积方量的增大,水的存在会加剧滑坡沿程侵蚀铲刮作用以及导致运动性态向流态化转变而造成更远的运动距离和更广的致灾范围。水动力型滑坡是一个复杂的系统性问题,不同地质结构和水动力条件的滑坡变形破坏过程存在很大差异,远距离非接触式滑坡早期识别与监测技术以及基于人工智能和大数据且具备自主学习的滑坡预报预警方法是未来重要发展方向。水动力型滑坡防治涉及到工程建设、经济民生、社会等多方面因素,需要综合运用工程措施和非工程措施。在未来水利水电工程建设过程中,应重视库区滑坡的危害性,复建设施的修建应尽可能远离库区滑坡影响区。     

承灾体易损性评估模型与滑坡灾害风险度指标

承灾体易损性定量评估是制约滑坡灾害风险评估研究的瓶颈问题。为此,以滑坡体冲击冲量为致灾强度指标、建筑物整体抗剪力为抗灾性能指标,推导出典型承灾体易损性定量评估模型。在此基础上,考虑滑体运动特征参数随机性对易损性的影响,提出风险曲线和最大风险度指标的概念,以反映滑坡灾害成灾全过程中不确定性对灾害后果的影响。并采用该模型分析了坡体几何特征参数、受灾体空间位置以及受灾体抗灾性能对易损性的影响规律。将风险度指标应用于算例分析,并与以往方法进行了比较,分析发现,建立的易损性定量评估模型可以反映二维简化情况下受灾体毁损程度与各种影响因素之间关系的基本规律,为易损性定量评估提供了一种途径。     

诱发池州滑坡的降水特征分析

滑坡是池州最严重的地质灾害.滑坡的形成除与地质条件有关外,降水和人类工程活动是很重要的诱发因素.通过分析大量的滑坡资料和气象(雨量)数据,研究和探讨了滑坡的发生与降水特征之间的关系,发现滑坡的发生与近3天内的降水强度、过程降水总雨量、降水的持续时间等关系十分密切.结合国内邻近省区的分析结论,建立了一个用日综合雨量预测滑坡的数学统计模型,并对池州1995、1998、1999年3次滑坡等重大突发性地质灾害过程进行了检验,效果良好.     

台风暴雨型土质滑坡演化过程研究

台风暴雨型滑坡是我国东南丘陵山地主要的滑坡类型,揭示其失稳演化规律对东南丘陵山地台风暴雨型土质滑坡监测预警具有重要的理论及实际意义。本文以福建泉州德化石山滑坡为研究对象,结合现场地质勘察资料,建立滑坡物理与数值模型对其变形演化过程进行模拟,探究边坡失稳涉及的渗流和变形位移等规律。研究结果表明:(1)初期雨水以垂直入渗坡体为主,且入渗速率较大;后期入渗速率随坡体饱和度增加而减小。有前期小降雨的情况下,坡脚位置更易出现积水饱和现象;(2)雨水入渗是导致坡体稳定性下降的主要原因:在暴雨工况中E3(模拟全程降雨为暴雨雨强100 mm·d-1)中,稳定系数保持下降,从1.197降至1.125;在双峰暴雨工况E4(前期30 mm·d-1小雨强降雨,后期100 mm·d-1暴雨雨强降雨)中,小雨强降雨过程中稳定系数基本保持不变,从1.197降至1.188,当暴雨一开始,稳定系数骤降至1.060;(3)台风暴雨型滑坡位移演化过程具有阶段性特征:压缩沉降微变形阶段,该阶段位移曲线变化平缓,基本不发生位移;匀速变形阶段,该阶段位移匀速增长,位移速率不变;加速变形阶段,加速变形直至失稳阶段,破坏迅速,具有突发性,曲线呈非线性;(4)当前期发生小雨强降雨(降雨强度≤30 mm·d-1),后期突发大暴雨雨强降雨(降雨强度≥100 mm·d-1)情况下滑坡的发生具有突变性,在试验中暴雨初期位移骤增20 mm,而后快速发展到90 mm左右。     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

湖北省清江流域滑坡分布规律与减灾对策研究

清江流域是湖北省滑坡高易发区,滑坡灾害频发,造成了较大的经济损失,危害大。该区地质环境复杂,地貌形态以中山为主,河谷深切,岸坡陡峭,构造发育,新构造运动表现为大面积间歇性上升运动; 区内共发育滑坡2843处,其中滑坡2275处,崩塌型滑坡568处,滑坡以小型为主,主要分布在人类工程活动比较频繁的地带。通过统计分析,清江流域滑坡的空间分布规律主要受控于地质环境条件和动力因素,动力因素包括自然动力因素和人为动力因素,前者以降雨为主,后者以切坡为主且日趋发展; 滑坡变形的时间规律主要表现为同发性、滞后性和不稳定的周期性; 滑坡的自身活动规律主要表现为继承性、隐蔽性、突发性和差异性; 针对性地提出了监测预警、搬迁避让、工程治理和地质环境保护等滑坡减灾对策。     

中国城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究进展

近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。     

西藏易贡特大山体滑坡及其减灾措施

分析了西藏易贡河扎木弄沟2000年4月9日发生特大山体滑坡的成因、堵塞河流的机理,以及滑坡堆积体堵塞河道后水位急剧上升可能形成的灾害.介绍了采取抢险减灾的工程措施、非工程措施和预案实施后泄水情况.     

Comparative Analysis of Risk Assessment of Landslides and Debris Flows of China in 2000 and 2010

Landslides and debris flows occurr in China frequently and cause disastrous losses of life and property. The risk assessment of landslides and debris flows and their spatial variations were comparatively analyzed in this paper, which has great significance for disaster prevention. This article selected 1 km×1 km grid as the assessment unit and with support of GIS technique, analyzed landslide and debris-flow risk distribution and their spatial variations from 2000 to 2010. The research results indicated that the spatial distribution of risk classes in 2000 and 2010 was obviously discrepant. Overall, taking the Heihe-Tengchong population density line as the boundary, the west of the line is mainly low risk area; the east of the line is mainly high risk area. Compared with the risk of 2000, the risk values of 2010 increased, with the high risk area and low risk area enlarged, moderate risk area reduced. The moderate risk area is the most unstable and sensitive risk area, and its risk class variation is significant. However, China is not a region with the high risk of landslide and debris-flow hazard at present. In the following next 10 years, the risk of landslides and debris flows in China will continue to increase.     

重庆市特大型滑坡风险评价研究

通过对重庆市特大型滑坡的分布、物质结构、成因、稳定性及成灾特点的分析研究,建立特大型滑坡风险评价模型;以典型特大型滑坡为基础,确定特大型滑坡发生概率和风险程度等级;结合风险评价结果,针对特大型滑坡成灾特点,提出风险管理对策,探索特大型滑坡防灾减灾对策。     

平推式岩质滑坡形成机理及治理措施

平推式岩质滑坡作为一类容易被人们忽视的典型滑坡,有其特殊的成因与变形破坏特征。以广元市剑阁县坟林岩滑坡为背景,研究了缓倾岩质滑坡的特征、成因模式和变形破坏特征。归纳总结出降雨是降低滑坡体稳定性的主要因素,并对滑坡体进行了不同工况下的稳定性评价。分析认为,此类滑坡产生变形的主要因素是后缘裂隙水位抬升,裂隙水压力增加,同时裂隙水渗透在滑面上形成扬压力,滑面抗剪强度降低,最终导致滑坡整体失稳。在此基础上对不同整治措施的技术可行性及经济指标进行比较分析,提出了以排水为主,支挡为辅的治理措施。在滑坡后缘设置截、排水沟,前缘设置抗滑键进行支挡。工程实施两年来未发现任何变形,达到了治理的目的,经济效益明显。     

A Study of Global Change Population and Economic System Risk Forming Mechanism and Assessment

Global climate change featured with warming has created serious challenge to world sustainable development and human security. It has become an important consensus of the international society to assess global change risk at the global scale and carry out tailored governance and risk-based adaptation. National Key Research and Development Program “Study on global change population and economic system risk forming mechanism and assessment” aims at quantitatively predicting future global climate change and population and economic system exposure and vulnerability change, developing global change population and economic system risk assessment model based on complex system dynamics, synthesizing risk assessment model with proprietary intellectual property rights, assess global change population and economic system risk of the near and mid future at the global scale, and compiling the atlas of global change population and economic system risk. The outcomes intend to serve the participation of global risk governance and international climate negotiation, and to provide scientific support to the implementation of international disaster risk reduction strategy.     

福建省永泰县东门旗山滑坡诱发机理与防治措施

为明确降雨诱发滑坡机理及为防治措施确定依据,本文以福建省永泰县东门旗山滑坡为研究案例,在充分的地质勘探资料以及降雨期间滑坡位移监测数据的基础上,从内部与外部因素两个方面分析了滑坡的诱发机理,并通过数值方法对滑坡稳定性演化历程进行了反分析,将滑坡治理分为应急处理与长期加固两个阶段。在应急处理阶段,以拦排地表与地下水为主要工程措施,依据滑坡体不同部位滑动速率与降雨量的关系,验证推移式滑坡判断,得出先将排水措施布设于滑坡下部的结论;在长期加固方面,以抗滑桩为主要加固措施,以抗滑桩工程造价最低为优化目标,结合数值模拟与理论计算方法,得到最优抗滑桩设计方案为布桩于滑坡体中下部、桩径1.0 m、桩净距与中心距分别为2.0 m和3.0 m。     

Global landslide and avalanche hotspots

Allocating resources for natural hazard risk management has high priority in development banks and international agencies working in developing countries. Global hazard and risk maps for landslides and avalanches were developed to identify the most exposed countries. Based on the global datasets of climate, lithology, earthquake activity, and topography, areas with the highest hazard, or “hotspots”, were identified. The applied model was based on classed values of all input data. The model output is a landslide and avalanche hazard index, which is globally scaled into nine levels. The model results were calibrated and validated in selected areas where good data on slide events exist. The results from the landslide and avalanche hazard model together with global population data were then used as input for the risk assessment. Regions with the highest risk can be found in Colombia, Tajikistan, India, and Nepal where the estimated number of people killed per year per 100 km² was found to be greater than one. The model made a reasonable prediction of the landslide hazard in 240 of 249 countries. More and better input data could improve the model further. Future work will focus on selected areas to study the applicability of the model on national and regional scales.     

Landslides in the Mailuu-Suu Valley, Kyrgyzstan—Hazards and Impacts

Mailuu-Suu is a former uranium mining area in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia) at the northern border of the Fergana Basin. This region is particularly prone to landslide hazards and, during the last 50 years, has experienced severe landslide disasters in the vicinity of numerous nuclear waste tailing dams. Due to its critical situation, the Mailuu-Suu region was and still is the target area for several risk assessment projects. This paper provides a brief review of previous studies, past landslide events and a discussion on possible future risk scenarios. Various aspects of landslide hazard and related impacts in the Mailuu-Suu Valley are analyzed in detail: landslide susceptibility, historical evolution of landslide activity, size-frequency relationship, river damming and flooding as well as impacts on inhabited areas and nuclear waste storage zones. The study was carried out with standard remote sensing tools for the processing of satellite imagery and the construction of digital elevation models (DEMs). The processed inputs were combined on a GIS platform with digital landslide distribution maps of 1962, 1977, and 2003, digitized geological and geographic maps, and information from landslide monitoring and geophysical investigation.As a result, various types of landslide susceptibility maps based on conditional analysis (CA) are presented as well as predictions of future landslide activity and related damming potential and their possible impact on the population. For some risk scenarios, remediation and prevention measures are suggested.     

Seismic Risk Assessment for the Territory of Armenia and Strategy of its Mitigation

The original methods of seismic risk assessment based on the main factors, defining the high level of seismic risk in Armenia, are used in this paper. Based on the analysis carried out, an assessment is made about the fact, that the capital of Armenia, Yerevan, is the most risk exposed area. A strategy for seismic risk reduction, derived from local peculiarities and the level of seismic risk, is presented. Improving the resisting of existing buildings and constructions to seismic damage, based on the grounds of new technologies elaborated by NSSP RA, is emphasised in this strategy.     

A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.