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1.
Summary Average SST anomalies of OCT-DEC months for Nino-3 region are predicted using the following parameters – (i) April rain over
Himachal Pradesh, (ii) Darwin pressure change (January–April), (iii) Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti–Darwin) and (iv) SST
anomalies of Nino-3 region in the month of May. Principal component analysis is used to orthogonalise the predictors before
using them in the regression equation. The first two principal components, which explain nearly 73% of the variance, are used
to fit a regression line. The period 1951–1985 is used as the calibration period for the model and the period 1986–1997 as
the verification period for the forecast.
The Brier score with respect to a reference forecast (persistence) for the independent period is found to be 0.82 which is
indicative of good forecast skill.
Received April 1, 1999 Revised January 17, 2000 相似文献
2.
Climate Dynamics - The second empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF2) of winter surface air temperature (SAT) over 0°–180° E, 40°–90° N during 1979–2005 is... 相似文献
3.
T. M. Lenton M. S. Williamson N. R. Edwards R. Marsh A. R. Price A. J. Ridgwell J. G. Shepherd S. J. Cox 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(7-8):687-711
A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8–3.3°C and predict atmospheric CO2 close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO2 emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100–15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO2 approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420–5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5–12.5°C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year−1. Under ‘business as usual’, the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year−1. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6°C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4–10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources. 相似文献
4.
J. B. R. Loureiro D. V. Soares J. L. A. Fontoura Rodrigues F. T. Pinho A. P. Silva Freire 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,122(2):343-365
The present work investigates the role of different treatments of the lower boundary condition on the numerical prediction
of flows over two-dimensional, smooth, steep hills. Four different law of the wall formulations are tested when a large recirculating
region is formed on the lee side of the hill. Numerical implementation of the near-wall functions was made through a finite
elements code. The standard κ–ε model was used to close the averaged Navier–Stokes equations. Results are validated through
original data obtained in a water tank. Measurements resorted to laser Doppler anemometry. The experiment provide detailed
data for the characterization of the reverse flow in the region between the separation and the reattachment points, with emphasis
on the near wall region. The experimental wall shear stress distribution is compared with the results provided by the different
laws of the wall showing good agreement. The numerical predictions are shown to vary markedly between different formulations. 相似文献
5.
L. M. Leslie D. J. Karoly M. Leplastrier B. W. Buckley 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,97(1-4):171-180
Summary Knowledge of the variability in tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and distribution is essential in determining the possible
impact of natural or human-induced climate change. This variability can be investigated using the available TC data bases
and by carrying out long-term climate model simulations for both past and future climates.
A coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (referred to here as the OU-CGCM) is described and applied with a higher resolution
(50 km) nested domain in the southwest Pacific region. Six-member ensembles of simulations with the OU-CGCM have been run
for 80 years, from 1970 to 2050. During the period 1970–2000, the OU-CGCM runs were compared with the observed TC data base.
For the period 2000–2050, two ensembles of simulations were performed, one with constant greenhouse gas concentrations and
the second with increasing greenhouse gases.
The OU-CGCM simulated well the observed TC frequency and distribution in the southwest Pacific during the period 1970–2000.
It also produced clear interannual and interdecadal TC variability in both the fixed and enhanced greenhouse gas simulations
during the period 2000–2050. The variability in TC frequencies was associated with the typical atmospheric and SST anomaly
patterns that occur in periods of quiet and active TC frequencies.
The main findings from the enhanced greenhouse gas scenario for the period 2000–2050 are: no change in the mean decadal number
of TCs relative to the control run, but a marked increase of about 15% in the mean decadal number of TCs in the most severe
WMO categories 4 and 5; the likelihood of TCs during the next 50-year period that are more intense than ever previously experienced
in the Australian region; a poleward extension of TC tracks; and a poleward shift of over 2 degrees of latitude in the TC
genesis region. 相似文献
6.
In the context of 1905-1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of establishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996-2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45℃ for their absolute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986-1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156℃. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fitting and independent sample prediction. 相似文献
7.
Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Daily rainfall and temperature data were extracted from the multi-ensemble HadRM3H regional climate model (RCM) integrations
for control (1960–1990) and future (2070–2100) time-slices. This dynamically downscaled output was bias-corrected on observed
mean statistics and used as input to hydrological models calibrated for eight catchments which are critical water resources
in northwest England. Simulated daily flow distributions matched observed from Q95 to Q5, suggesting that RCM data can be used with some confidence to examine future changes in flow regime. Under the SRES A2 (UKCIP02
Medium-High) scenario, annual runoff is projected to increase slightly at high elevation catchments, but reduce by ~16% at
lower elevations. Impacts on monthly flow distribution are significant, with summer reductions of 40–80% of 1961–90 mean flow,
and winter increases of up to 20%. This changing seasonality has a large impact on low flows, with Q95 projected to decrease in magnitude by 40–80% in summer months, with serious consequences for water abstractions and river
ecology. In contrast, high flows (> Q5) are projected to increase in magnitude by up to 25%, particularly at high elevation catchments, providing an increased risk
of flooding during winter months. These changes will have implications for management of water resources and ecologically
important areas under the EU Water Framework Directive. 相似文献
8.
Aaron Anthony Boone Isabelle Poccard-Leclercq Yongkang Xue Jinming Feng Patricia de Rosnay 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(1):127-142
The West African monsoon (WAM) circulation and intensity have been shown to be influenced by the land surface in numerous
numerical studies using regional scale and global scale atmospheric climate models (RCMs and GCMs, respectively) over the
last several decades. The atmosphere–land surface interactions are modulated by the magnitude of the north–south gradient
of the low level moist static energy, which is highly correlated with the steep latitudinal gradients of the vegetation characteristics
and coverage, land use, and soil properties over this zone. The African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis (AMMA) has organised
comprehensive activities in data collection and modelling to further investigate the significance land–atmosphere feedbacks.
Surface energy fluxes simulated by an ensemble of land surface models from AMMA Land-surface Model Intercomparison Project
(ALMIP) have been used as a proxy for the best estimate of the “real world” values in order to evaluate GCM and RCM simulations
under the auspices of the West African Monsoon Modelling Experiment (WAMME) project, since such large-scale observations do
not exist. The ALMIP models have been forced in off-line mode using forcing based on a mixture of satellite, observational,
and numerical weather prediction data. The ALMIP models were found to agree well over the region where land–atmosphere coupling
is deemed to be most important (notably the Sahel), with a high signal to noise ratio (generally from 0.7 to 0.9) in the ensemble
and a inter-model coefficient of variation between 5 and 15%. Most of the WAMME models simulated spatially averaged net radiation
values over West Africa which were consistent with the ALMIP estimates, however, the partitioning of this energy between sensible
and latent heat fluxes was significantly different: WAMME models tended to simulate larger (by nearly a factor of two) monthly
latent heat fluxes than ALMIP. This results due to a positive precipitation bias in the WAMME models and a northward displacement
of the monsoon in most of the GCMs and RCMs. Another key feature not found in the WAMME models is peak seasonal latent heat
fluxes during the monsoon retreat (approximately a month after the peak precipitation rates) from soil water stores. This
is likely related to the WAMME northward bias of the latent heat flux gradient during the WAM onset. 相似文献
9.
V. Badescu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2002,72(1-2):127-136
Summary A model that uses two parameters to describe the state of the sky is presented. The parameters are the total cloud amount
and a new two-value parameter – the sunshine number – stating whether the sun is covered or uncovered by clouds. Regression
formulae to compute instantaneous cloudy sky global and diffuse irradiance on a horizontal surface are proposed. Fitting these
relationships to Romanian data shows low bias errors for global radiation but larger errors for diffuse radiation. The model’s
accuracy is significantly higher than one based on total cloud amount alone. The model is used to generate time-series of
solar radiation data. A first approximate relationship, neglecting auto-correlation of the sunshine number, is used in the
computations.
Received July 17, 2001 Revised November 7, 2001 相似文献
10.
A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner Ralph Schneider E. C. Brady M. Kucera A. Abe-Ouchi E. Bard P. Braconnot M. Crucifix C. D. Hewitt M. Kageyama O. Marti A. Paul A. Rosell-Melé C. Waelbroeck S. L. Weber M. Weinelt Y. Yu 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(6):799-815
Results from multiple model simulations are used to understand the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to the
reduced greenhouse gas concentrations and large continental ice sheets of the last glacial maximum (LGM). We present LGM simulations
from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PMIP2) and compare these simulations to proxy data collated
and harmonized within the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface Project (MARGO). Five atmosphere–ocean
coupled climate models (AOGCMs) and one coupled model of intermediate complexity have PMIP2 ocean results available for LGM.
The models give a range of tropical (defined for this paper as 15°S–15°N) SST cooling of 1.0–2.4°C, comparable to the MARGO
estimate of annual cooling of 1.7 ± 1°C. The models simulate greater SST cooling in the tropical Atlantic than tropical Pacific,
but interbasin and intrabasin variations of cooling are much smaller than those found in the MARGO reconstruction. The simulated
tropical coolings are relatively insensitive to season, a feature also present in the MARGO transferred-based estimates calculated
from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These assemblages indicate seasonality in cooling
in the Atlantic basin, with greater cooling in northern summer than northern winter, not captured by the model simulations.
Biases in the simulations of the tropical upwelling and thermocline found in the preindustrial control simulations remain
for the LGM simulations and are partly responsible for the more homogeneous spatial and temporal LGM tropical cooling simulated
by the models. The PMIP2 LGM simulations give estimates for the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.67°–0.83°C per Wm−2, which translates to equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling of atmospheric CO2 of 2.6–3.1°C. 相似文献
11.
Forecasting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures by neural network models 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
We used neural network models to seasonally forecast the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the
Ni?o 3.4 region (6 °S–6 °N, 120 °W–170 °W). The inputs to the neural networks (i.e., the predictors) were the first seven wind stress empirical orthogonal function
(EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific (20 °S–20 °N, 120 °E–70 °W) for four seasons and the Ni?o 3.4 SSTA itself for the final season. The period of 1952–1981 was used for training the neural
network models, and the period 1982–1992 for forecast validation. At 6-month lead time, neural networks attained forecast
skills comparable to the other El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models. Our results suggested that neural network models
were viable for ENSO forecasting even at longer lead times of 9 to 12 months. We hypothesized that at these longer leads,
the underlying relationship between the wind stress and Ni?o 3.4 SSTA became increasingly nonlinear. The neural network results
were interpreted in light of current theories, e.g., the role of the “off-equatorial” Rossby waves in triggering the onset
of an ENSO event and the delayed-oscillator theory in the development and termination of an ENSO event.
Received: 31 October 1995 / Accepted: 25 July 1996 相似文献
12.
Summary Tropical North African climate variability is investigated using a Sahel rainfall index and streamflow of the Nile River in
the 20th century. The mechanisms that govern tropical North Africa climate are diagnosed from NCEP reanalysis data in the period 1958–1998:
spatially – using composite and correlation analysis, and temporally – using wavelet co-spectral analysis. The Sahelian climate
is characterised by a decadal rhythm, whilst the mountainous eastern and equatorial regions exhibit interannual cycles. ENSO-modulated
zonal circulations over the Atlantic/Pacific sector are important for decadal variations, and create a climatic polarity between
South America and tropical North Africa as revealed through upper-level velocity potential and convection patterns. A more
localised N–S shift in convection between the Sahel and Guinea coast is associated with the African Easterly Jet. 相似文献
13.
The role of phase locking in a simple model for glacial dynamics 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
Yosef Ashkenazy 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(4):421-431
Glacial–interglacial oscillations are often described by simple conceptual models. Relatively few models, however, are accompanied by analytical solutions, though detailed analytical investigation of climate models often leads to deeper understanding of the climate system. Here we study a simple conceptual model for glacial dynamics, a simplified version of the sea-ice-switch mechanism of Gildor and Tziperman (Paleoceanography 15:605–615, 2000), and provide a detailed analytical treatment for this model. We show that when the model is forced by a simplified insolation forcing it exhibits rich dynamics and passes through a series of bifurcations before being completely phase-locked to the insolation forcing. Our model suggests that even when the glacial cycles are self-sustained, insolation forcing has a major role on the complexity of glacial cycles: (1) it is possible to obtain glacial–interglacial oscillations for a wider parameters range when the amplitude of the insolation forcing is larger; (2) in addition, the ice-volume becomes more periodic; (3) when the period of the ice-volume is minimal the ice-volume is symmetric and for larger period is more asymmetric; (4) the ice-volume can be either periodic, higher order periodic, or quasi-periodic. 相似文献
14.
Influence of vegetation changes during the Last Glacial Maximum using the BMRC atmospheric general circulation model 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
The influence of different vegetation distributions on the atmospheric circulation during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM,
21 000 years before present) is investigated. The atmospheric general circulation model of the Bureau of Meteorology Research
Center was run using a modern vegetation and in a second experiment with a vegetation reconstruction for the LGM. It is found
that a change from conifer to desert and tundra causes an additional LGM cooling of 1–2 °C in Western Europe, up to −4 °C
in North America and −6 °C in Siberia. An expansion of dryland vegetation causes an additional annual cooling of 1–2 °C for
Australia and northern Africa. On the other hand, an increase of temperature (2 °C) is found in Alaska due to changes in circulation.
In the equatorial region the LGM vegetation leads to an increased modelled temperature of 0.5–1.5 °C and decreased precipitation
(30%) over land due to a reduction of the tropical rainforest, mainly in Indonesia, where the reduction of precipitation over
land is associated with an increase of precipitation of 30% over the western Pacific.
Received: 15 December 1999 / Accepted: 10 January 2001 相似文献
15.
AMIP model simulations of the east China (5–50°N; 105–122°E) monsoon system are analyzed to study coherent relationships
between rainfall and wind annual cycle biases. A comparison with observed interannual variability patterns is carried out
to identify the physical processes that explain the biases. The analyses show that poleward displacement of the simulated
east Asian jet stream causes the ascending branch of the jet-induced transverse circulation to move north and, as a consequence,
produces negative (positive) rainfall biases occur in central (northeast) China. The model simulations show decreased southwesterly
flow and ITCZ rainfall over the South China Sea when weaker (versus observations) summer Hadley and Walker circulations are
present. This results from diminished model tropical disturbance activity, and highlights the importance of air-sea interactions.
In addition, during October–January, intensified model low-level easterlies enhance moisture transport and produce positive
local rainfall biases over central and northeast China. Biases in the east China monsoon system are concurrently reflected
in the planetary circulation. Enhanced northeast China rainfall results from increased surface pressure over the North Pacific
and an amplified zonal pressure gradient along the east China coast. This bias pattern is associated with differences in model
representations of topography. On the other hand, the South China Sea experiences an extensive elongated meridional rainfall
bias dipole structure that straddles the equator. This is accompanied by a baroclinic vertical pattern over the tropics as
well as a barotropic wave train that extends from Australia to the Antarctic, where the teleconnection is likely a direct
atmospheric response to tropical convective heating.
Received: 20 June 2000 / Accepted: 17 September 2000 相似文献
16.
Impact of soil moisture initialisation and lateral boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0
In this study, we use the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model HadRM3P to investigate the relative impact of initial
soil moisture (SM) and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) on simulations of the West African Monsoon. Soil moisture data that
are in balance with our particular model are generated using a 10-year (1997–2007) simulation of HadRM3P nested within the
NCEP-R2 reanalyses. Three sets of experiments are then performed for six April–October seasons (2000 and 2003–2007) to assess
the sensitivity to different sources of initial SM data and lateral boundary data. The results show that the only impact of
the initial SM anomalies on precipitation is to generate small random intraseasonal, interannual and spatial variations. In
comparison, the influence of the LBC dominates both in terms of magnitude and spatial coherency. Nevertheless, other sources
of initial SM data or other models may respond differently, so it is recommended that the robustness of this conclusion is
established using other model configurations. 相似文献
17.
Changes in methane emissions into the atmosphere from terrestrial ecosystems are assessed with models for the European and
Asian parts of Russia using the model unit of a methane cycle and calculations with a regional climate model. The calculations
were performed for the present-day base period (1991–2000), for the middle (2041–2050), and late (2091–2100) 21st century
using the SRES A2 anthropogenic emission scenario. The average emissions for the base period were equal to 8 Mt CH4/year for the European part of Russia and 10 Mt CH4/year for the Asian part. By the middle of the 21st century, they increased up to 11 and 13 Mt CH4/year, and by the late 21st century, up to 14 and 17 Mt CH4/year. These tendencies are associated with the increased warm period of the soil and dependence of the integral methane production
on temperature. It is predicted that the maximum depth of freezing will lessen in the southern regions of the European and
Asian parts of Russia by the late 21st century. 相似文献
18.
Summary Regional climate model and statistical downscaling procedures are used to generate winter precipitation changes over Romania
for the period 2071–2100 (compared to 1961–1990), under the IPCC A2 and B2 emission scenarios. For this purpose, the ICTP
regional climate model RegCM is nested within the Hadley Centre global atmospheric model HadAM3H. The statistical downscaling
method is based on the use of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to construct climate change scenarios for winter precipitation
over Romania from two predictors, sea level pressure and specific humidity (either used individually or together). A technique
to select the most skillful model separately for each station is proposed to optimise the statistical downscaling signal.
Climate fields from the A2 and B2 scenario simulations with the HadAM3H and RegCM models are used as input to the statistical
downscaling model. First, the capability of the climate models to reproduce the observed link between winter precipitation
over Romania and atmospheric circulation at the European scale is analysed, showing that the RegCM is more accurate than HadAM3H
in the simulation of Romanian precipitation variability and its connection with large-scale circulations. Both models overestimate
winter precipitation in the eastern regions of Romania due to an overestimation of the intensity and frequency of cyclonic
systems over Europe. Climate changes derived directly from the RegCM and HadAM3H show an increase of precipitation during
the 2071–2100 period compared to 1961–1990, especially over northwest and northeast Romania. Similar climate change patterns
are obtained through the statistical downscaling method when the technique of optimum model selected separately for each station
is used. This adds confidence to the simulated climate change signal over this region. The uncertainty of results is higher
for the eastern and southeastern regions of Romania due to the lower HadAM3H and RegCM performance in simulating winter precipitation
variability there as well as the reduced skill of the statistical downscaling model. 相似文献
19.
An analysis is made of the effects of topography on the summer atmospheric energetics of the Northern Hemisphere in a low-resolution
global spectral model. The numerical mode! is a global, spectral, primitive equation model with five equally spaced sigma
levels in the vertical and triangular truncation at wavenumber 10 in the horizontal. The model includes comparatively full
physical processes.
Each term of the energy budget equations is calculated in four specific latitudinal belts (81.11°S–11.53°S; 11.53°S–11.53°N;
11.53°N–46.24°N; 46.24°N–81.11°N) from a five-year simulation with mountains and a one-year simulation without mountains,
respectively. Differences between them are compared and statistically tested. The results show that synoptical scale waves
transport available potential energy and kinetic energy to long waves and increase conversion from available potential energy
of the zonal flow to eddy's and from the eddy kinetic energy to the zonal kinetic energy in region 3 (11.53°N-46.24°N) due
to mountains; topography intensifies the atmospheric baroclinity in region 3, consequently the baroclinic conversion of atmosphere
energy is increased. The seasonal characteristics associated with the summer atmospheric energy source in region 3 are caused
by seasonal variation of the solar radiation and the land-ocean contrasts and independent of topographic effects. The mechanism
of topographic effects on the increase of long wave kinetic energy is also discussed. 相似文献
20.
Sensitivity studies of the RegCM3 simulation of summer precipitation, temperature and local wind field in the Caribbean Region 总被引:6,自引:1,他引:6
D. Martínez-Castro R. Porfirio da Rocha A. Bezanilla-Morlot L. Alvarez-Escudero J. P. Reyes-Fernández Y. Silva-Vidal R. W. Arritt 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,86(1-4):5-22
Summary We present a preliminary evaluation of the performance of three different cumulus parameterization schemes in the ICTP Regional
Climate Model RegCM3 for two overlapping domains (termed “big” and “small”) and horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) in the
Caribbean area during the summer (July–August–September). The cumulus parameterizations were the Grell scheme with two closure
assumptions (Arakawa–Schubert and Fritsch–Chappell) and the Anthes-Kuo scheme. An additional sensitivity test was performed
by comparing two different flux parameterization schemes over the ocean (Zeng and BATS).
There is a systematic underestimation of air temperature and precipitation when compared with analyzed data over the big domain
area. Greater (∼2 °C) and smaller (∼0.9 °C) negative temperature biases are obtained in Grell–FC and Kuo convective scheme,
respectively, and intermediate values are obtained in Grell–AS. The small domain simulation produces results substantially
different, both for air temperature and precipitation. Temperature estimations are better for the small domain, while the
precipitation estimations are better for the big domain.
An additional experiment showed that by using BATS to calculate the ocean fluxes in the big domain instead of the Zeng scheme,
precipitation increases by 25% and the share of convective precipitation rose from 18% to 45% of the total, which implies
a better simulation of precipitation. These changes were attributed to an increase of near surface latent heating when using
BATS over the ocean. The use of BATS also reduces the cold bias by about 0.3–0.4 °C, associated with an increase of minimum
temperature.
The behavior of the precipitation diurnal cycle and its relation with sea breeze was investigated in the small domain experiments.
Results showed that the Grell–Arakawa–Schubert closure describes better this circulation as compared with Grell–Fritsch–Chappell
closure. 相似文献