基于玛纳斯河流域生态问题的生态安全评价

 玛纳斯河流域山地-绿洲-荒漠三大生态系统表现出区域生态、经济要素的空间状况有所分异,经过几十年大规模的水土资源开发,流域不同的生态经济功能分区在环境演变和经济发展过程中所存在的生态安全问题的表现形式也各不相同。根据流域土地利用和水资源数据库,并参考各地自然、经济、社会统计资料,在生态经济功能分区的基础上,针对流域不同分区存在的生态经济安全问题选取相应的生态安全评价指标,结合实地调研和专家赋值法确定不同指标的权重,并计算综合生态安全评价指数,对流域各个生态经济功能亚区进行生态安全评价。评估结果表明：（1）玛纳斯河流域分为3个一级区和9个二级分区,根据不同分区存在的生态安全问题选取了13个生态环境指标和4个社会经济指标;（2）Ⅱ4、Ⅲ1和Ⅲ2亚区的生态不安全指数呈上升趋势,Ⅲ3亚区逐渐下降,Ⅰ1、Ⅰ2、Ⅱ1、Ⅱ2和Ⅱ3亚区存在波动,而对于绿洲区的四个亚区而言,Ⅱ2亚区生态不安全指数最高,存在的生态安全问题最多,而Ⅱ3亚区虽地处沙漠边缘,生态不安全指数相对最低,因此生态不安全指数高的区域需要高度重视,不高的区域由于生态问题会带来诸多不利影响,也需要重视。     

Soil erosion assessment based on minimum polygons in the Yellow River basin, China

In the previous studies, a method was developed to assess soil erosion based on land use information. In this paper, we present another approach that uses environmental data to assess soil erosion. A soil erosion characteristic index EI is proposed, and its value is derived using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique based on standardized environmental information stored in minimum polygons that tile the erodible area under consideration. The approach is applied to a case study of the Yellow River basin, north China, where serious erosion is occurring. To represent different grades of soil erosion, the range of EI is divided into six levels according to standard grades of soil erosion intensity. The application indicates that the method deals properly with data scarcity, with the results giving a satisfactory representation of the characteristics of soil erosion in the Yellow River basin. The spatial–temporal distribution of EI in the Yellow River basin is predicted, and the results interpreted to give the long-term trend and state of soil depletion. Comparisons are given between EI and surveyed soil erosion zoning maps for the Yellow River basin at the end of the 1980s and 1990s. The output reliability and the approach applicability in smaller spatial scales are investigated in a case study of Zhifanggou basin.     

Modeling stream flow and sediment yield using the SWAT model: a case study of Ankara River basin,Turkey

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of stream flow and sediment yield in the Ankara basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT and generate a soil erosion map. Thirteen years of daily/monthly flow and monthly sediment data were used for calibration and validation. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures to assess the applicability of the model in simulating stream flow and sediment yield during calibration (1989–1996) and validation (1982–1984) periods. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), relative error (RE), and R² (coefficient of determination) for daily flow were computed as 0.61, ?0.55, and 0.78, respectively; and as 0.79, ?0.58, and 0.89 for monthly flow during the calibration. Statistical comparisons of sediment yield produced values for NSE, RE, and R² of 0.81, ?1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration. The resulting map suggests that significant portions of urbanized and highly cultivated areas in the vicinity of stream channels are particularly vulnerable to soil erosion. SWAT satisfactorily simulated hydrology and sediment yield and can be used as a tool in decision-making for water resources planning in a basin with similar characteristics.     

基于风险地形建模的毒品犯罪风险评估和警务预测

犯罪具有明显的时空特征,研究犯罪问题离不开时间和空间维度分析,以及产生犯罪的社会、地理、生态、环境等因素。风险地形建模是美国学者研发的空间风险评估和警务预测技术,已在全球六大洲45个国家和美国35个州得到了独立测试和验证,被广泛应用于警务预测、国土安全、交通事故、公共医疗、儿童虐待、环境污染、城市发展等多个领域。在毒品、纵火、爆炸、强奸、抢劫、盗窃等犯罪研究领域更是取得了显著成果。本文运用犯罪热点分析和风险地形建模,以长三角地区N市毒品犯罪为研究对象,对该市2015年毒品犯罪的危险因子、空间盲区、风险地形进行分析,探索毒品犯罪的生成机理和演化规律,并对2016年毒品犯罪进行预测。研究结果表明,N市毒品犯罪呈现明显的犯罪热点和冷点;出租屋、酒店、车站、ATM机、停车场、娱乐场所、城市快速路、网吧是N市毒品犯罪的风险性因素。风险地形建模能较好地预测毒品犯罪。公安机关禁毒部门应据此进行严密管控,逐步限制、消除犯罪产生地、犯罪吸引地、犯罪促进地的生存土壤和条件。     

基于agent的商业中心地空间结构动态模拟

以克里斯泰勒提出的中心地空间结构为研究对象,回顾和总结了中心地理论的主要内容、理论发展和实际应用,并以复杂性科学的理论和方法为基础,根据中心地理论假设,提出基于agent建模的两层次agent模型结构,通过遗传算法再现和验证了克氏单一职能的六边形中心地空间格局。模拟表明,微观自主体的相互作用的确可以突现出六边形宏观空间格局,这为以后突破克氏理论中均质、静态、封闭的不足提供了新的研究途径。中心地宏观空间结构的微观机理需要进一步结合经济学演绎模型和ABM的计算实验深入研究。     

A geospatial assessment of flood hazard in north-eastern depressed basin,Bangladesh

Floods are a frequently occurring calamity in deltaic Bangladesh. This paper aims to assess the temporal expansion of waterbodies during flooding using geospatial techniques. Several water indices were applied to classify the satellite images at various temporal scales. Among them, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) showed the highest correlation (r = 0.831; where p = 0.01) with rainfall data. Specifically, the NDWI results showed that perennial waterbodies measured 37 km² and 60 km² in Sunamganj District in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The area of waterbodies notably increased 52-fold from March to April (37 km² to 1958 km²) during the pre-monsoon flash flood of 2017. During the July 2019 monsoon flood, waterbodies started to extend after May and flooded 2784 km² in area. NDVI analysis showed that in 2019, floodwater submerged 361.7 km² of vegetation cover. At the same time, the Surma River's flooding resulted in a 73.9 per cent inundation of the total area of the Sunamganj District. We hope that this study will provide better understanding of the varying nature of floods that occur in the low lying bowl shaped Haor region which will in turn assist the government with flood mitigation.     

海岸沙丘系统脆弱性评价研究进展与展望

海岸沙丘系统脆弱性评价揭示海岸沙丘系统脆弱性的基本特征,为海岸沙丘保护与利用提供重要依据,是海岸沙丘研究近期备受关注的一个重要方面。论文基于国内外海岸沙丘系统脆弱性评价研究相关概念、发展历程、评价指标及技术方法等的回顾,概括了其在概念内涵深化、指标体系完善、脆弱性因子辨识、技术方法发展以及评价结果应用等方面的主要进展;并针对当前概念定义难以共识、指标体系争议较大、评价方法存在局限性和理论基础略显薄弱等研究不足,提出明晰相关概念、完善指标体系、改进评价方法、强化机理研究及增强趋势研判等海岸沙丘系统脆弱性近期研究的主要方向。     

基于自主体(agent)的单中心城市化动态模拟

构建了基于自主体(agent)的单中心城市化模拟模型,实现了一个人工可控的计算实验环境。围绕人口流动、扩大内需、集聚效应等城市化进程的影响因素以及城市化与工业化关系展开模拟分析和讨论。研究表明:(1)城乡消费倾向扩大有助于城市与农村地区收入的提高,也有助于提高城市化水平;(2)随着集聚过程的负效应增大,城市化水平相应下降,甚至不可持续;(3)城市化与工业化具有较强的相关性,经济结构比值随着城市化水平上升而不断提高,而且工业化进程要快于城市化过程。本文认为,基于自主体建模为研究和揭示我国城市化过程的动态规律和驱动机制提供了一条新的途径。我国城市化研究需要结合转型时期的基本国情,探索演绎分析、计算实验以及实证研究相结合的技术路线。     

热带气旋降水模拟研究进展

中国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一,准确的降水模拟对于开展热带气旋灾害风险评估有重要意义。本文从热带气旋灾害风险评估的视角,将降水模拟分为基于极值理论的降水极值模拟、基于站点的降水时空模拟和基于热带气旋路径的降水事件模拟3大类;根据风险评估对降水模拟的需求,从模型构建、发展及其特点等方面对3类模型进行分析评述;进而提出面向风险评估的热带气旋降水模拟,应兼顾降水模拟的一般性和热带气旋暴雨模拟的特殊性,平衡处理降水模拟结果的准确性、统计量的可靠性和计算量问题。以极值理论对降水极值模拟为基础,充分发挥降水时空模拟在处理长时间降水序列中的优势,并加强热带气旋降水的理论研究,进一步完善热带气旋降水事件的模拟模型。     

A GIS-based modeling of snow accumulation and melt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin

Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an efficient method for snowmelt runoff forecast in large basins. We use short-range precipitation forecasts of mesoscale atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combining them with ground-based and satellite observations for modeling snow accumulation and snowmelt processes in the Votkinsk reservoir basin (184,319 km²). The method is tested during three winter seasons (2012–2015). The MODIS-based vegetation map and leaf area index data are used to calculate the snowmelt intensity and snow evaporation in the studied basin. The GIS-based snow accumulation and snowmelt modeling provides a reliable and highly detailed spatial distribution for snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered areas (SCA). The modelling results are validated by comparing actual and estimated SWE and SCA data. The actual SCA results are derived from MODIS satellite data. The algorithm for assessing the SCA by MODIS data (ATBD-MOD 10) has been adapted to a forest zone. In general, the proposed method provides satisfactory results for maximum SWE calculations. The calculation accuracy is slightly degraded during snowmelt periods. The SCA data is simulated with a higher reliability than the SWE data. The differences between the simulated and actual SWE may be explained by the overestimation of the WRF-simulated total precipitation and the unrepresentativeness of the SWE measurements (snow survey).     

Ten major rivers in monsoon Asia-Pacific: An assessment of vulnerability

An assessment of socioeconomic-environmental vulnerability of the ten major river basins in the Monsoon Asia-Pacific region was performed. The rivers include Indus, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), Irrawaddy, Salween, Chao Phraya, Mekong, Red River, Pearl River, Yangtze and Yellow River. The study looked at a combination of various issues, usually investigated in isolation from each other, on a sub-continental scale by using the river basins as the geographical entities for the study. The analysis was conducted by using various geospatial databases including data on nature and environment, demography, governance, water scarcity as well as social and economic development. A vulnerability profile for each of the river basins was produced by using two different approaches. We found that the South Asian basins (Indus and GBM) appeared essentially more vulnerable than the other investigated basins. The other basins are roughly at the same vulnerability level, but their vulnerability profiles differ substantially. The Chinese basins and the Red River are particularly vulnerable to environmental factors. The weak points of Irrawaddy and Salween are in the hazards and economic development, whereas the former is a challenge to Mekong as well. Only Indus and Yellow River suffer from considerable water scarcity. The other basins except GBM are relatively well-off with the social matters. A transparent and pragmatic river basin vulnerability assessment approach was developed, which can be used in any large river basin of the world, producing intercomparable results. The approach allows further decoupling of the used indices in the case of more specific and targeted analyses without losing the comparability of the overall results.     

黄河河龙区间河流泥沙对相关重大事件与政策的响应

利用径流-输沙量双累积曲线与单位降雨侵蚀力输沙量(输沙量负荷)的分析表明,河龙区间泥沙变化与相关重大事件与政策密切相关。“大开荒” 时期输沙量负荷平均值最大,是输沙量负荷多年平均值的1.8倍;“大跃进”、“农业学大寨”和“文革”时期的输沙量负荷均值也较大,为输沙量负荷多年平均值的1.4~1.5倍。改革开放后,输沙量负荷下降明显,输沙量负荷平均值较改革开放前减少了55.7%,特别是在1999年实施“退耕还林(草)”后,输沙量负荷平均值下降到整个时期的最小值,仅为输沙量负荷多年平均值的33.3%。     

不同重现期下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价

为探讨不同重现期情景下淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险变化,利用不同类型共20 种分布函数拟合得到最大日降水量结果,并将其作为致灾因子,结合其他11 种指标,定量化评价淮河流域不同重现期暴雨洪涝灾害风险。研究发现：① 淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害高风险区为流域中上游干流蓄洪区及周边地势低洼地,流域中部、西南部以及东部部分地区为中高风险区,低风险区分布于流域北部与中南部。② 随重现期增加（10a 一遇至1000a 一遇）,最大日降水量空间分布变化为流域东部整体危险性逐渐减弱,西南部高值区域增幅较大;而最终淮河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划变化则表现为中高风险区保持相对稳定;高风险区与低风险区逐渐缩小,占流域总面积分别由8.3%、42.4%减小至3.2%与30.8%,风险高值保持稳定但区域集中程度越来越明显;中风险区则由28.3%增加至40.9%;整体呈现“流域东部大灾减少、小灾不断,西部高值区遇水成灾,北部中南部相对安全”的空间分布变化格局。     

京津冀地区台风危险性评估——基于Gumbel分布的分析

台风引发的连续暴雨是京津冀地区主要的气象灾害之一,开展台风危险性评估,旨在识别台风灾害高危险区,为京津冀地区台风灾害防灾减灾能力提升和风险管理提供参考。根据1974-2015年间影响京津冀地区的台风资料,选取该地区148个国家气象站点的气象数据,包括最大日降水量、累积降水量及最大风速3个指标。借助Gumbel分布,求出各气象站点5 a、10 a、30 a及50 a一遇水平下的气象指标数值,利用ArcGIS空间插值表征其空间分布,据此评估京津冀地区台风危险性。结果表明,50 a一遇下台风灾害最大日降水最大值为190.62 mm,累积降水量最大值为253.04 mm,最大风速最大值为16.81 m/s。其中北京东南部、天津北部、河北省东南沿海地区和太行山一带的石家庄、邢台、邯郸等地区为高危险区。     

Application of discovery process models in estimating petroleum resources at the play level in China

Discovery process modeling has gained wide acceptance in the Chinese exploration community. In recent years, a variety of discovery process models have been applied to the prediction of undiscovered petroleum resources at the play level in sedimentary basins in China. However, challenging problems have been encountered, particularly when one method alone has been applied to small plays in nonmarine sedimentary basins or in plays with an unusual order of discovery wells. This paper presents results gotten by using the lognormal discovery process model of the Geological Survey of Canada and the geoanchored method for three petroleum plays in basins with different geologic settings. Although the predicted shapes of the parentsize distributions which use these two models, were not always similar, the expected values of the total resources and the number of fields (pools) to be discovered are comparable. The combined use of two discovery process models in the same play compensates for the weaknesses in one method compared with the other and vice versa. Thus, more reliable estimates are the result.     

面向灾害风险评估的台风风场模型研究综述

台风历史观测风速等数据时空分布不均, 观测年份有限, 在进行定量概率风险评估时, 经常面临样本不足的限制。与数值风场不同, 参数化台风风场模型因计算时间短, 结合路径及强度的随机事件模拟, 在台风风险评估中发挥着不可替代的作用。本文按照台风风速模拟的基本流程, 首先, 总结了参数风场模型中最大风速、最大风速半径、Holland B系数等关键参数的确定方法, 分析了国内外梯度风场模拟、边界层风速垂直折减计算的研究进展;其次, 重点讨论了国内外关于地表粗糙度、地形、阵风因子以及海陆转换因素对于风速修正的理论及应用情况;再次, 对于风场模型在台风风险模型软件、台风次生风暴潮及海浪灾害的应用进行了概述;最后, 针对中国台风风场模拟研究的不足, 对加强多学科联合、数据观测、地表粗糙度变化及分布研究、地形影响修正研究以及重建历史风场等未来改进方向进行了展望。     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

塔里木河流域TRMM降水数据精度评估

利用塔里木河流域24个气象站降水数据,分析了2000-2013年TRMM多卫星降水数据(TRMM 3B43 v7)在塔里木河流域的适用性。检验结果表明:全年来看,TRMM数据对研究区所有站点的年均降水量拟合较好(R²=0.8846),流域内24个站点平均年降水量相对偏差为19.02%,其中60%的站点表现为TRMM年降水量高于地面实测年降水量;月降水方面,除个别站点(于田、且末、乌恰)较差外,大部分站点的拟合度都较好;就季节而言:春季拟合效果最好,夏、秋季的TRMM数据存在低估问题,而冬季则偏高估;流域降水量由东南向西北递增,并在西北部边缘地区增加较显著,形成一个相对丰水带;而向沙漠腹地方向延伸的降水量则呈减少趋势。同时流域最大降水区域在一年中变化存在一定的规律。     

基于多智能体的洪涝风险动态评估理论模型

随着全球气候变化的加剧和城市化进程的快速发展,洪涝灾害的影响和复杂性日益加剧。洪涝灾害风险评估是一项复杂的系统工程,在防洪减灾工程理论与实践中具有重要意义;作为洪涝灾害风险管理和应急处置的基础和核心,风险评估模型直接影响洪涝灾害风险评估结果的可靠性。洪涝灾害风险是洪涝灾害复杂系统组成部分相互作用的结果,综合考虑洪涝灾害系统的特点以及智能体建模的优势,提出了一种基于多智能体的洪涝风险动态评估理论模型。首先从复杂系统建模的角度出发,对洪涝灾害复杂系统进行分析建模,构建基于多智能体的洪涝灾害风险动态评估框架模型;其次,对所构建的框架模型中单个智能体模型进行研究,分别建立基于反应型的孕灾环境智能体模型和基于慎思型的致灾因子、承灾体和风险分析智能体模型,并对以上单个智能体的流程进行研究;然后以风险分析智能体联盟为例对模型框架中所涉及到4类智能体联盟的内部结构和流程进行分析,对构建的框架模型中涉及到的智能体通信协调和作用规则进行探讨;最后,在Netlogo平台上,基于30 m DEM数据和构建的模型,对淮河流域的暴雨型洪涝孕育发生发展全过程的人口风险进行动态评估。结果表明,构建的模型能有效评估洪涝灾害全过程中人口风险的动态。研究结果对洪涝灾害人口灾情评估、应急救助和应急管理都具有较强的指导意义。     

共和盆地气候变化及其环境响应

利用共和盆地1953年以来的气象资料,分析了53年来的气候变化特征。结果显示:(1) 共和盆地多年平均气温呈上升趋势,以每10年约0.28℃的倾向率增高,各季节气温和降水变化趋势不一致,春季(3-5月)和夏季(6-8月)气温上升不明显,但秋季(9-11月)和冬季(12-2月)两季上升明显;年降水量呈现微弱的增加趋势,年内分配不均,夏季和秋季降水减少,春季和冬季降水量增加; (2) 共和盆地气候暖干化是目前导致土地沙化日趋严重、草地退化、灾害频繁、河流径流量减少等环境问题的关键性因子,已经对当地的社会经济发展与环境产生了重大影响;(3)共和盆地是青藏高原乃至全球气候变化的敏感地区。