Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Statistical estimation of the apex of a sediment distribution system from paleocurrent data

Precise statistical models are proposed for the distribution of paleocurrent directions in distributary systems. These models are based on a von Mises distribution for directions of paleocurrents in a system. The method of maximum likelihood is used to obtain an estimated position and confidence regions for the apex of the system. Both axial data (where only the trend of the paleocurrent is known) and directional data (where the direction of paleoflow is known) can be used. These models have been applied to two fluvial distributary systems in flat-lying Miocene deposits in the Ebro Basin, northern Spain. The estimate of the position of the apex of one of these systems is in good agreement with the position at the basin margin predicted from sedimentary facies information. The estimate of the position of the apex of the second system lies outside of the sedimentary basin; this result is considered to indicate that the distributary system had several feeder points along the basin margin, a situation which is predicted also from facies distributions. This statistical procedure can be used successfully on small data sets of around a hundred paleocurrent readings provided that they are scattered evenly across the area or lie in a wide arc.     

倾斜线源的三维电场数值模拟研究

利用倾斜线状电流源的理论电位式和有限差分法理论,建立三维离散化方程组,并用ICCG法求解该方程组,设计三维电阻率异常体分布模型,经计算得到了地表视电阻率分布在垂直和倾斜线源情况下的变化规律。以上工作对利用直流电法勘探方法,来解决油田剩余油的分布及对地浸砂岩型铀矿矿层渗透性能的分析,有着实际的意义。     

考虑局部趋势的非一致性水文频率分析方法

变化环境下水文序列常表现出非一致性,导致基于独立同分布假设的频率分析方法受到严峻挑战,故亟需研究适用于非一致性水文序列的频率分析方法。针对具有趋势变异的水文序列,提出了一种考虑局部趋势的非一致性水文频率分析方法:以具有局部与整体趋势识别能力的滑动窗口趋势分析法诊断序列;构造时变概率分布模型组,采用融合了贝叶斯理论的广义极大似然法估计模型参数;优选模型并按照等可靠度原则推求设计值及置信区间。应用该方法对甘肃石羊河流域红崖山水库站年径流量序列开展了实例研究,结果表明从设计值及95%置信区间角度看,所提方法与现行的一致性频率分析方法及考虑整体趋势的时变分布方法相比存在一定的差异,揭示了在准确识别序列局部或整体趋势成分的基础上,开展非一致性水文频率分析有助于合理估计设计值。     

Modeling the mineral dust aerosol cycle in the climate system

Soil dust aerosol is an important factor of the climatic system. In order to evaluate the different aspects of the climatic effects of dust, estimates of its highly variable atmospheric distribution need to be computed by transport models. Such models also provide important means of evaluating the processes that govern changes in dustiness during different climatic periods. While models of the modern dust cycle are currently capable of simulating first-order patterns of its global distribution, the parameterization of dust emission in these models is still crude, since input information about soil properties and wind events cannot be resolved at a global scale. Regional models could be useful for evaluating emission parameterizations, as well as dust transport and depositional processes close to source regions. No single existing data set fully describes all aspects of the dust cycle. Validation of modeled dust distributions must therefore include comparisons with different types of observational data. While the compilation of such observational data sets is crucial for model development, model results can, in turn, provide guidance for new measurements of dust properties, which will be useful for future investigation of the dust cycle and its climatic effects.     

长江-黄河源寒区径流时空变化特征对比

长江源区比黄河源区寒冷而干燥, 年径流量仅为黄河源区的60%, 径流年内分配较黄河源区均匀性差, 丰水年与枯水年比例基本相当, 而黄河源区枯水年占较大优势. 近40 a来长江源区径流量总体上呈明显的递减趋势, 黄河源区径流量则呈现略微增长趋势. 长江源区径流量以8～9 a的周期变化较为显著, 黄河源区径流量则以7～8 a周期比较显著. 对寒区径流变化的主要影响因子分析表明, 长江源区温度因子对径流年际变化影响大于黄河源区, 而降水因子影响相对较小, 长江源区寒区水文环境对径流影响较大是造成长江、黄河源区径流差异形成的主要原因.     

Sediment type distribution in reservoirs: sediment source versus morphometry

 Bottom sediments were collected from seven Texas reservoirs to assess the spatial distribution of sediment types in reservoirs. The sediment samples were analyzed for water content, organic content, and grain-size distributions. The reservoirs are characterized by distinct water content patterns (referred to in this paper as Types I, II, and III) that reflect the lithologic units comprising their drainage area. The water content, organic content, and percent mud decreases from Type I (shale, marl) through Type II (limestone-marl-sandstone) to Type III (granite-gneiss-schist-sandstone) reservoirs. Reported elemental concentrations in the reservoir sediments are consistent with concentrations in the dominant rocks within their drainage area. While water depth accounts for part of the spatial distribution, sediment source explains the overall distribution of sediment types. Coarse-grained source rocks, multiple source rocks, and multiple tributaries which input sediment at different points contribute to an inconsistent sediment type distribution. Depending on the sediment source, sand and gravel-size sediments are present in the deeper regions of some reservoirs. This disrupts the classical morphometry (water depth, slope) controlled sediment distribution pattern (coarser sediments in shallower regions and finer sediments in deeper regions) of natural lakes. Thus, the location of tributaries and the type of sediments they carry are the dominant factors that control the sediment type distribution in reservoirs. Received: 16 June 1998 · Accepted: 24 August 1998     

Seismic hazard assessment under complex source size distribution of mining-induced seismicity

It is well-documented that a variety of factors controlling the rockmass fracturing process in mines often results in a complexity of mining event size distribution. In such cases, the estimation of the probability functions of source size parameterizations, with the use of presently known distribution models, brings about an unacceptable and systematic over- or underestimation of the seismic hazard parameters. It is, therefore, recommended that the non-parametric, kernel estimators of the event size distribution functions, be applied to stationary hazard studies in mining seismicity.These data-driven estimators, adapted to seismic source size characterization, accurately fit all kinds of data underlying distributions, regardless of their complexity. Recently, the non-parametric approach to size characterization was supported by a special method of uncertainty analysis based on resampling techniques. At present, it is a fully developed method, which provides point and interval estimates of size distribution functions and related hazard parameters. Two examples of its use in studying mining seismic data are presented and discussed in this paper. The analyzed data sets were recorded in two different copper mines in Poland. The smoothed bootstrap test for multimodality, which is a specialized tool for investigating the shapes of probability densities, provided highly significant proof that in both cases the probability densities of source size parameterization were complex thus implied the superiority of the non-parametric estimation to the classic, model-based approach in the studied cases. The data were then used to construct non-parametric, kernel estimates of the source size cumulative distribution function (CDF), the exceedance probability and the mean return period. Furthermore, confidence intervals for these quantities were also estimated. The intervals for CDF were narrow, showing that the procedures of non-parametric estimation and resampling based uncertainty analysis were precise. Due to the fact that the mean return period is very sensitive to values of the CDF, in particular for larger events sizes, the uncertainty of the return period estimates was not insignificant but remained manageable. The point and interval estimates of source size CDF and hazard parameters so obtained were compared with the respective point estimates achieved from the inappropriate in the case of complex magnitude distributions, model-based approach.     

稀有气体同位素地球化学应用前景

稀有气体有4个源区,包括大气、地下水、地壳和地幔;其中地幔稀有气体又可分为上地幔和下地幔2个源区。不同源区的稀有气体在同位素组成上截然不同,因而可以利用稀有气体同位素进行有关地质和地球化学过程的示踪。稀有气体同位素组成不仅对查明成矿流体的性质和来源及矿床成因具有重要作用,而且还可以为正确理解大规模成矿作用的地球动力学背景和全面弄清大型一超大型矿集区的时空分布规律提供重要线索。     

Quantitative Analysis Model and Application of the Hydrocarbon Distribution Threshold

Hydrocarbon source rock obviously controls the formation and distribution of hydrocarbon reservoirs.Based on the geological concept of "source control theory",the concept of a hydrocarbon distribution threshold was put forward.This means the maximum range for hydrocarbon controlled by the source rock conditions to migrate in the hydrocarbon basins.Three quantitative analysis models are proposed on this basis,namely the hydrocarbon accumulation probability,maximum hydrocarbon scale threshold and reserve distribution probability,which respectively refer to the probability of forming a hydrocarbon reservoir,the possible maximum scale of the hydrocarbon reservoir and the percentage of reserve distribution in a certain area within the hydrocarbon distribution threshold.Statistical analysis on 539 hydrocarbon reservoirs discovered in 28 hydrocarbon source kitchens from seven sedimentary basins and sags of eastern China shows the maximum reservoir scale possibly formed in the hydrocarbon basin,hydrocarbon accumulation probability and oil and gas reserve distribution probability are all controlled by the characteristics of the hydrocarbon source rock.Generally,as the distances from the hydrocarbon source rock center and hydrocarbon discharge boundary get longer and the hydrocarbon discharge intensity of hydrocarbon source rock center gets smaller,there will be lower probability of hydrocarbon accumulation.Corresponding quantitative models are established based on single factor statistics and multivariate analysis.Practical application in the Jiyang Depression shows that the prediction from the quantitative analysis model for the hydrocarbon distribution threshold agree well with the actual exploration results,indicating that the quantitative analysis model is likely to be a feasible tool.     

鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长8油层组石油成藏机理及成藏模式

鄂尔多斯盆地延长组长8油层组在不同地区其勘探成果和油藏规模存在明显的差异,为了分析其原因,对长8油层组油藏的油源、成藏期古物性特征、毛细管力、浮力和过剩压力等进行了研究,得出了过剩压力远大于毛细管力、源储压差能够克服相应储层的毛细管力从而运移成藏的认识。在此基础上,根据姬塬、陇东和陕北三个地区烃源岩和储层发育特征、物性及运移通道的特征,构建了三种不同的成藏模式。具体表现为,姬塬地区的双向排烃、复合成藏模式:即长7段优质烃源岩异常发育,生烃增压作用强烈,使得生成的烃类流体在过剩压力的驱动下向上覆的长6-长4+5地层和下伏的长8地层中双向排烃,在多层系富集成藏;陇东地区的上生下储、下部成藏模式:长7烃源岩发育,存在较高过剩压力,下伏的长8油层组储层物性明显的要优于上覆的长6油层组储层物性,利于烃类大规模向下运移,在长8聚集成藏;陕北地区的侧向运移、上部成藏模式:长7段烃源岩在该区不发育,且上覆长6储层物性远优于下伏长8储层物性,烃类优先在长6成藏,长8油藏规模有限。这三种成藏模式代表了以长7为主要烃源岩的油藏的主要成藏机理,三者在油气分布规律上存在明显的差异。     

地震资料在徐家围子断陷沙河子组潜在烃源岩预测中的应用

徐家围子勘探实践表明,沙河子组烃源岩的分布控制着烃类气藏的分布。通过比较各种勘探方法及在研究区的具体适用情况,以及在徐家围子断陷勘探程度和各种资料综合分析的基础上,确定以地震相法为主要预测方法。根据钻遇沙河子组地层的单井沉积相并结合井点地震反射特征,总结出4 类沙河子组潜在烃源岩的地震反射特征,并在全断陷对沙河子组的烃源岩品质进行整体评价。结合沙河子组地层厚度、有机碳指标、Ｒo 值、泥地比值和地震相特征等烃源岩品质评价的依据,将沙河子组烃源岩有利区划分为I 类区、II1 类区和II2 类区以及III 类区。     

Seismic hazard assessment in TERESA test areas based on a Bayesian technique

A method based on Bayesian techniques has been applied to evaluate the seismic hazard in the two test areas selected by the participants in the ESC/SC8-TERESA project: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). A prior site occurrence model (prior SOM) is obtain from a seismicity distribution modeled in wide seismic sources. The posterior occurrence model (posterior SOM) is calculated after a Bayesian correction which, basically, recovers the spatial information of the epicenter distribution and considers attenuation and location errors, not using source zones. The uncertainties of the occurrence probabilities are evaluated in both models.The results are displayed in terms of probability and variation coefficient contour maps for a chosen intensity level, and with plots of mean return period versus intensity in selected test sites, including the 90% probability intervals.It turns out that the posterior SOM gives a better resolution in the probability estimate, decreasing its uncertainty, especially in low seismic activity regions.     

青藏高原夏季凝结潜热时空分布特征分析

结合青藏高原东部3″DEM和102个气象站46年(1961—2006)5—9月的降水资料,根据降水随高度分布,将站点分为三类,采用多元回归的方法,建立逐年雨季降水量估算模型,并估算和分析了46a的雨季凝结潜热。结果表明:降水量估算模型的相关性显著,基本都通过0.05的信度检验值0.69、0.82、0.90;高原东部雨季凝结潜热分布极不均匀,表现为东南多西北少的特征,凝结潜热总量变化在18.1×1020～26.8×1020J,并且有波动中增加的趋势;采用EOF分解和REOF分区,将高原东部划分为5个气候区,区域凝结潜热年际变化和第A、B、E区的凝结潜热变化有一致性,而与北坡第C、D区凝结潜热相差很大。由于高度、经度、坡度等对低海拔区降水的正调节作用,使得该区域的凝结潜热自20世纪90年代之后逐渐降低;坡向对高海拔区域降水的正调节作用,纬度对降水的负调节作用,使得该区域的凝结潜热有逐渐增加的趋势。     

Some considerations on the recent tectonic stress field of China

Based on the improved hydrofracturing method, the in-situ principal stresses are determined in the north, northeast, south and the northwest of China, and the results of many fault-plane solutions, crustal deformations, geological and geophysical observations are used to discuss the distribution of subcrustal stress in space, the difference between seismically active regions and stable regions, and the variations of the stress field near the source region before and after the Tangshan earthquake. Finally, the characteristics of intraplate tectonic stress fields in China are explained in relation with the combined actions of the movement of the major Indian Ocean, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates.     

Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of?Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap.     

2011年3月24日缅甸7.2级地震对云南地区的影响研究

利用2011年1—6月云南地区的连续波形资料,采用背景噪声和波形互相关方法分别反演该地区的速度结构以及2011年3月24日缅甸7.2级地震前后60d的速度变化图像。同时,根据云南地区中小地震计算缅甸地震前后应变能释放响应比空间分布,并利用缅甸地震的震源参数,计算了缅甸地震对云南地区主要断裂产生的库仑破裂应力影响。结果显示:(1)禄劝至华坪一带、永定至泸水区域和通海至建水地区震后波速增加,同时该地区地震活动增强,相应断裂上库仑破裂应力增加,说明缅甸地震对这些区域具有加速构造活动的正影响;(2)小江断裂带以东马龙至宣威地区和南汀河断裂带以南临沧至景洪地区震后波速降低,地震活动减弱,断裂上库仑破裂应力降低,说明缅甸地震对该区域具有减缓构造活动的负影响。     

Bayesian Inference of Spatial Covariance Parameters

This paper shows the application of the Bayesian inference approach in estimating spatial covariance parameters. This methodology is particularly valuable where the number of experimental data is small, as occurs frequently in modeling reservoirs in petroleum engineering or when dealing with hydrodynamic variables in groundwater hydrology. There are two main advantages of Bayesian estimation: firstly that the complete distribution of the parameters is estimated and, from this distribution, it is a straightforward procedure to obtain point estimates, confidence regions, and interval estimates; secondly, all the prior information about the parameters (information available before the data are collected) is included in the inference procedure through their prior distribution. The results obtained from simulation studies are discussed.     

Free convective controls on sequestration of salts into low-permeability strata: insights from sand tank laboratory experiments and numerical modelling

Using sand tank experiments and numerical models, local-scale solute-transport processes associated with free convection in both the region surrounding as well as within discrete low-permeability strata are explored. Different permeability geometries and contrasts between high- and low-permeability regions are tested. Results show that two free convective processes occur at different spatial and temporal scales. In the high-permeability region, salinisation was rapid and occurred predominantly by free convective flow around the low-permeability blocks (interlayer convection). A free convection flow field also became concurrently established within the low-permeability lenses (intralayer convection). It was found that upward vertical flow created by the large-scale interlayer free-convective flow field in the high-permeability region retards salinisation of the lenses as buoyant freshwater displacements oppose the downward penetration of dissolved salts. Salinisation of the low-permeability structures eventually takes place from below as saltwater is dragged upwards. This bottom up convective salinisation process of low permeability strata has not been reported in previous literature. These results demonstrate that variable-density sequestration of solutes driven by a source resident above the low-permeability layer is a complicated function of the geometry of the permeability distribution and the permeability contrast between low- and high-permeability regions.     

中国冻土地下水研究现状与进展综述

冻土地下水系统不仅在寒区水文循环中扮演着重要的角色,同时也在寒区水文过程和地表过程及其科学研究中起到了集蓄、融冻和泄流等至关重要的作用。近几十年随着全球气候变暖及人类活动（寒区工程量）的增加,冻土退化趋势显著,这一过程改变了寒区的水文地质条件,导致地下水动态特征发生显著变化,从而引起一系列的生态环境变化。近些年,诸多学者通过构建水热耦合模型来研究冻土地下水的运动机理、分布状况和季节动态,促进了寒区地下水理论知识的发展,推动了寒区水文地质知识体系的进步。本文主要针对目前我国多年冻土区地下水的研究现状进行了分析、整理、归纳,为进一步研究气候变化下地下水系统的发展与演变,以及对生态环境的影响提供参考依据。