利用GRACE重力卫星求解南极洲冰川质量变化的精度研究

GRACE重力卫星可用于观测南极洲冰川的质量变化。由GRACE重力卫星提供的月解重力场能有效探测质量的年变化及长期变化(周期和非周期性)。通过GRACE观测的质量变化时间序列,计算得到南极洲质量的长期变化及周期性年变化。计算结果受多种误差影响,其中GRACE模型误差的影响较小,而研究时段及其跨度的影响较为显著,以不同宽度的时间窗口进行平移,得到无穷时间序列下该误差的参考值为±14.89 mm/a。南极地区的气压修正误差可达±10 mm/a,GIA修正误差与其量级相同。由此我们认为,目前对于南极洲冰川质量变化的一些认识仍需商榷。南极洲西部地区冰川加速消融,Dronning Maud Land和Enderby Land等地区的质量持续累积;其他地区的质量变化情况仍需进一步研究。     

1980-2011年全球不同地区冰川物质平衡变化分析

在气候变暖背景下,全球大多数冰川加速退缩,冰川物质亏损严重,呈负平衡增长趋势。利用世界冰川监测服务处（WGMS）最新刊布的物质平衡资料,对全球重点监测冰川的物质平衡现状及结果进行扼要的总结和比较,分析了1980-2011年全球不同地区冰川物质平衡的区域特征、变化过程及总体变化趋势,评估了冰川物质平衡对海平面变化的贡献。结果表明：1980-2011年,全球冰川物质亏损严重,加速退缩,平均减薄了14 m,其中阿尔卑斯山脉及太平洋海岸山脉的退缩尤为明显,平均减薄了30 m左右;各地区冰川的平均物质平衡变化趋势与全球平均趋势基本保持一致,具有典型的纬度地带性分布特征;物质平衡变化过程分为正平衡波动型、负平衡波动型及负平衡持续增长型三类,但总体上处于负平衡持续增长趋势;在全球继续增温的未来,冰川将会继续退缩,物质亏损强度不断增大,负平衡趋势不断增强。冰川物质平衡对海平面上升的贡献呈增大趋势,且与全球气温上升基本上是同步的。     

亚洲高山区全新世中期气候及其影响下的冰川模拟

本文利用一个1 km分辨率冰盖模式和11个PMIP4全球气候模式,研究了全新世中期亚洲高山区气候和冰川的变化特征。多模式集合平均结果显示,(1)全新世中期亚洲高山区年平均温度较工业革命前期降低了约0.7 ℃,夏季气温升高约0.7 ℃,冬季气温降低约1.8 ℃,全新世中期年平均降水略微增加(0.5%),但夏季和冬季降水分别增加和减少了约16%;(2)全新世中期亚洲高山区冰川较工业革命前期整体显著退缩,面积减少了约13%,体积减小了约8%。在区域尺度上,全新世中期亚洲高山区北部冰川的面积(体积)减少了约58%(47%),西部冰川的面积(体积)减少了约26%(25%),而南部冰川的面积(体积)增加了约20%(39%);(3)全新世中期夏季升温主导亚洲高山区北部和西部冰川的退缩,而降水增多是亚洲高山区南部冰川扩张的首要控制因子。本研究有助于加深理解全新世中期亚洲高山区冰川的变化格局和驱动因子。     

40余年来中国地区季节性积雪的空间分布及年际变化特征

利用全国700余个气象站的地面积雪观测资料,分析了中国地区季节性积雪年际的时空变化特征.结果表明:新疆北部,东北-内蒙古地区和青藏高原西南和南部地区为我国季节性积雪的3个高值区,也是积雪年际变化变化大的地区,也即为中国积雪年际异常变化的敏感区.综合积雪深度和积雪日数的变化趋势,可大致分为3种变化类型:1)增加和减小同步,主要在新疆天山以北、青藏高原东部地区、内蒙古高原中东部到大兴安岭以西的地区,减少区人体在内蒙古西部、黄土高原和长江中下游地区;2)积雪深度增加但积雪日数减少,主要在东北平原东部的部分地区,长江上游的部分地区;3)积雪深度减小而积雪口数增加,主要位于青藏高原中部的部分地区.中国地区积雪总体上呈现出平缓的增长趋势,积雪深度和积雪日数的年代际变化趋势在20世纪60年代呈现为稍有增加;70年代有所下降;80年代又增加;90年代又有略有增加的趋势.     

印度共和国地质构造与区域成矿

印度共和国位于南亚次大陆中部,陆地面积297.32万km2(不包括印控克什米尔地区与锡金),北部为喜马拉雅高山区,海拔平均为5500m;中部是印度河-恒河-布拉马普特河(在中国境内称雅鲁藏布江)平原,平均海拔100~200m,是印度经济最发达、人口最稠密地区;南部是印度半岛高原区,西高东低,     

利用GRACE重力卫星数据反演黑河流域地下水变化

干旱区地表水资源有限, 地下水资源被超采利用, 黑河流域是西北干旱区典型内陆河流域, 有同样的地下水资源利用问题. 然而由于监测地下水变化的测井数目有限且分布不均, 难以从流域尺度上把握地下水资源的时空变化. 利用GRACE重力测量卫星数据反演黑河流域2003-2008年间的地下水时空变化, 为合理分配利用水资源提供科学依据, 为掌握无资料区域地下水水资源及其变化趋势提供了计算方法. 为验证GRACE反演结果的可靠性, 首先将计算出的黑河中上游地下水的变化, 与该区域实测地下水变化数据进行对比分析, 结果显示二者之间相关性较好, 在一定程度上表明GRACE数据具备反演整个黑河流域水储量变化及其各个组分的能力. 此后, 利用GRACE数据反演了全黑河流域的地下水变化, 对其时空变化进行了分析和讨论. 结果表明: 黑河流域2003-2004年间地下水减少的幅度越来越少, 2005年夏季期间地下水资源量增加量最多, 自此地下水增加幅度逐渐减少, 至2008年趋于平衡. 空间上流域局部变化波动较大, 2003-2004年间黑河上游地下水资源量处于减少状态, 2005年相对于6 a地下水平均含量有轻微增加趋势, 2006年处于6 a平均值状态, 2007-2008年有稍微上升趋势; 中游在2005年有略微的上升, 之后3 a下降; 下游地下水含量在6 a中整体呈上升趋势.     

1973-2010年青藏高原西部昂拉仁错流域气候、冰川变化与湖泊响应

采用距离昂拉仁错最近的狮泉河、改则和普兰地区1973-2010年的气象数据和覆盖昂拉仁错流域1973、1976、1990、2000、2001、2002和2009年共7a的Landsat卫星遥感影像提取湖泊变化信息,并选取1976、1990/1992、2001和2009年覆盖全流域的遥感影像分析流域内的冰川变化过程.分析过去近40a内昂拉仁错流域内气候、湖泊和冰川的变化,并探讨了不同时期引起昂拉仁错发生变化的原因.结果表明:昂拉仁错在过去近40a内出现先萎缩后扩张的变化趋势,2000年为转折年,整体的变化趋势为萎缩;流域内冰川在研究时段内一直处于萎缩状态,并持续补给昂拉仁错.分析比较流域附近3个站在气温、降水量和最大潜在蒸发量的变化趋势之后,选用与昂拉仁错流域气候变化最为相近的改则站的气象参数为参照分析引起昂拉仁错湖泊面积发生变化的原因.结果显示,昂拉仁错湖面变化的每个时期内,在气温持续升高、冰川持续消融补给昂拉仁错水量输入的背景环境下,蒸发量和降水量差值的变化主要调控了湖泊面积的变化;区域冰川量的减少与温度持续升高相匹配;当持续增加的冰雪融水与降水量对湖泊水量输入小于流域蒸发量时,湖泊面积萎缩;当冰川冻土随着温度进一步升高而加速融化、流域的降水量逐步上升;当二者的水量输入总和超过流域内蒸发量时,湖泊面积开始扩张.     

基于GRACE卫星数据的中国地下水储量监测进展

GRACE卫星数据是监测地下水储量变化的一个新兴工具,及时了解其在中国的应用状况非常重要。在运用文献计量分析方法,定量分析相关研究趋势和特点的基础上,详细阐述了基于GRACE卫星数据的地下水监测基本原理、监测方法和不确定性,并总结了中国地下水储量变化监测的范围、精度和结果。研究发现,基于GRACE卫星的中国地下水储量变化监测研究逐渐受到重视,相关的中英文论文数量与被引频次均呈上升趋势。常用的监测方法主要包括基于水量平衡原理估算地下水储量变化、利用GRACE卫星数据校准水文模型。基于GRACE数据的中国地下水储量变化监测热点是华北平原。监测结果与实测地下水数据吻合良好,二者相关系数均高于0.6。目前,基于GRACE卫星数据的中国地下水储量监测仍存在空间分辨率低、不确定性大等挑战。未来应该结合GPS数据、合成孔径雷达干涉测量和地下水储量实测数据进行综合分析,以提高监测精度和可靠性。     

高亚洲冰川系统物质平衡特征及其对全球变化响应研究进展与展望

分布在高亚洲的大量现代冰川,是亚洲中部干旱半干旱地区最重要的淡水资源.高亚洲各区因环境差异,各区冰川系统物质平衡及其对全球气候变化的响应就表现出不同特点,需进一步应用冰川系统理论和方法对高亚洲冰川系统进行合理分区,研究各分区冰川系统的结构特征、物质平衡特征及其对气候变化的响应过程.通过总结国内外高亚洲冰川系统研究的现状,找出了国内外研究的优势及不足;在此基础上,从高亚洲冰川系统的等级划分、气候地形背景、结构特征、物质平衡特征、对全球变化的响应以及冰川系统径流变化对冰川灾害及环境影响的评估等方面进行了研究展望.并认为需要根据各区气候、地理条件划分不同的次级冰川系统,然后分别对不同冰川系统的冰川变化进行预测,根据冰川变化趋势,制定最优利用冰川水资源方案和冰川灾害防范措施.     

基于GRACE的黄河流域陆地水储量时空变化研究

黄河流域是我国目前主要的煤炭经济可采量和产能聚集地。了解和掌握黄河流域水资源及其变化不仅是推进黄河流域水资源节约集约利用的前提,更是开展黄河流域煤炭矿区生态保护与高质量发展的基础。相较于传统地面水资源监测手段受限于监测点分布和数目的影响,GRACE重力卫星为中长尺度陆地水储量时空变化研究提供一种新的途径。利用GRACE重力卫星数据,开展2002年4月到2017年6月黄河流域水储量的时空变化规律研究。利用纬圈长度加权平均,计算黄河上中下游水储量变化均值,发现黄河不同流段表现不同的变化趋势,且反映出2003年黄河流域水资源变化受到洪水等因素影响。进一步通过箱形图分析黄河流域上中下游水储量的月平均变化规律,反映出该流域“冬干春旱,夏秋多雨”的气候特点与水储量变化的密切关系。采用时间序列分解方法分析整个黄河流域水储量变化的趋势、年周期及半年周期等特征。结果表明,黄河流域水储量变化存在随经度由西向东递减趋势越来越明显的现象,其中黄河上游源头附近区域的水储量变化呈微弱的增长趋势;黄河流域水储量变化年周期和半年周期振幅存在明显区域差异,这与高山融雪、降水量的季节性差别及区域气候环境密切相关。了解和掌握上述黄河流域水储量时空变化,可为流域矿区的生态保护与可持续发展提供基础数据与参考。      

中国大型水库蓄水对近海相对海平面空间变化的影响

通过对我国大型水库蓄水的时空特征进行深入分析, 统计得到近60年来大型水库蓄水累积的库容量已达到697km3, 占全国所有水库库容量的83.3%及全球库容量的6.5%;而2000年以来的大型水库数量及蓄水量的变化有明显的加速, 库容量的变化率为16.7km3/a, 远高于1950年到2000年的4.9km3/a的增长率; 同时借助卫星重力(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE)观测手段, 对2000年以后主要分布在长江流域以南地区的水库进行水储量估算, 结果显示GRACE仅能估算得到63%的水库变化量, 两者之间的差异可能反映了该地区地下水的长期变化. 结合大型水库的分布位置与库容量, 基于海平面变化方程计算得到了中国近海相对海平面的空间变化. 水库蓄水导致的渤海与东南沿海海域的相对海平面上升明显, 最大上升高度约为8mm; 而2000年以后的水库对海平面的影响主要集中在东南沿海, 其中南海海域较为突出, 上升高度约为2~3mm, 在此期间蓄水造成的近海不同验潮站位置的海平面增长速度在0.02~0.11mm/a之间变化.      

Research Progress of Groundwater Storage Changes Monitoring in China Based on GRACE Satellite Data

The data acquired by Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite provides a new way for monitoring groundwater storage changes in China. It is vital to understand its applications in China. This paper systematically reviewed the research progress of groundwater storage monitoring in China based on GRACE data. First, we used the bibliometric analysis and quantitative analysis to clarify trends and characteristics of related studies. Then, we elaborated on the basic principles, methods and uncertainties of groundwater monitoring based on GRACE data. Furthermore, we reviewed the research progress from the aspects of spatial range, accuracies and findings. It was found that the groundwater storage monitoring in China based on GRACE data has gradually received more attention, and the numbers of relevant publications and total citations in both Chinese and English showed an increasing trend. The methods mainly include the principle of water balance and calibration of hydrological models using GRACE satellite data. Most of the relevant studies focused on the North China Plain. The monitoring results are in good agreement with the measured groundwater data, and their correlation coefficients are higher than 0.6. We suggested that the challenges such as low spatial resolution of GRACE data and the uncertainties in monitoring should be considered. In the future, global positioning system, interferometric synthetic aperture radar and groundwater level observation data can be integrated to improve the reliability of groundwater storage monitoring in China.     

Groundwater storage variability and annual recharge using well-hydrograph and GRACE satellite data

Most studies using GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data for examining water storage anomalies have rich hydrogeological databases. Here, GRACE data are analyzed for southern Mali, Africa, a region with sparse hydrogeological data. GRACE data (2002?C2008) did not overlap with observed groundwater-level data (1982?C2002). Terrestrial water storage from GRACE was corrected for soil moisture using the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) model to obtain monthly groundwater storage anomalies and annual net recharge. Historical storage anomalies and net recharge were determined using the water-table fluctuation method for available observation wells. Average annual net recharge averaged 149.1?mm (or 16.4% of annual rainfall) and 149.7?mm (14.8%) from historical water level and GRACE data, respectively. Monthly storage anomaly lows and peaks were observed in May and September, respectively, but have a shift in peak to November using the corrected GRACE data, suggesting that the GLDAS model may poorly predict the timing of soil-water storage in this region. Notwithstanding problems with the GLDAS model, the soil moisture-corrected GRACE data accurately predict the relative timing and magnitude of groundwater-storage changes, suggesting that GRACE data are valuable for identifying long-term regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with sparse hydrogeological data.     

Terrestrial water dynamics in the lower Ganges—estimates from ENVISAT and GRACE

In this study, the hydrodynamics of lower Ganges basin in India has been monitored using radar altimetry data from environmental satellite (ENVISAT) mission and microgravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. River stage time series have been constructed for different virtual stations on the lower Ganges. Time series for the integrated water volume changes from microgravity measurements have also been constructed to characterize the seasonal and interannual fluctuation patterns in water storage and flux. The ENVISAT dataset indicates an average seasonal river stage fluctuation of 8 m in the lower Ganges River. The GRACE dataset reveals a seasonal fluctuation ranging from 0.18 to 0.40 m in the vertically integrated total water storage in the lower Ganges basin. The two independent datasets show broad similarity in the lower Ganges basin and outline the importance of space-based techniques for monitoring continental water resources.     

Sensitivity of GRACE-derived estimates of groundwater-level changes in southern Ontario,Canada

Amidst changing climates, understanding the world’s water resources is of increasing importance. In Ontario, Canada, low water conditions are currently assessed using only precipitation and watershed-based stream gauges by the Conservation Authorities in Ontario and the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry. Regional groundwater-storage changes in Ontario are not currently measured using satellite data by research institutes. In this study, contributions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are compared to a hydrogeological database covering southern Ontario from 2003 to 2013, to determine the suitability of GRACE total water storage estimates for monitoring groundwater storage in this location. Terrestrial water storage data from GRACE were used to determine monthly groundwater storage (GWS) anomaly values. GWS values were also determined by multiplying groundwater-level elevations (from the Provincial Groundwater Monitoring Network wells) by specific yield. Comparisons of GRACE-derived GWS to well-based GWS data determined that GRACE is sufficiently sensitive to obtain a meaningful signal in southern Ontario. Results show that GWS values produced by GRACE are useful for identifying regional changes in groundwater storage in areas with limited available hydrogeological characterization data. Results also indicate that GRACE may have an ability to forecast changes in groundwater storage, which will become useful when monitoring climate shifts in the near future.     

Global land water storage change from GRACE over 2002–2009; Inference on sea level

Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km³/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002–2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of –0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ∼0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.     

Assessing groundwater storage changes in the Nubian aquifer using GRACE data

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) level two (L2) data is used in estimating the groundwater storage changes (GWSC) in the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). This set of data consists of spherical harmonics coefficients with specific degree and order. The GRACE data is de-correlated using a sixth degree polynomial in order to reduce the effect of the noise error resulting from the correlation between the spherical harmonics coefficients with the same degree parity. The GRACE estimates of GWSC are smoothed using Gaussian filter with half width of 1000 km. This half width is chosen in order to maximize the correlation between the GRACE estimates of GWSC and previous modeling results of the NSAS. The loss in groundwater storage occurring in each of the four countries sharing the NSAS is calculated to assess the sustainability of using the NSAS as a water resource in each country. The overarching finding in this study is that NSAS is losing its groundwater storage at a very high rate. Also, it is found that Egypt is the fastest in losing its groundwater storage from the NSAS. This loss of groundwater storage in Egypt may not necessarily be resulting from in-country extractions because of the trans-boundary nature of this aquifer. The GRACE-based estimates are found to be close to available data and previous modeling results of the NSAS.     

Estimating groundwater storage changes in the Mississippi River basin (USA) using GRACE

Based on satellite observations of Earth’s time variable gravity field from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), it is possible to derive variations in terrestrial water storage, which includes groundwater, soil moisture, and snow. Given auxiliary information on the latter two, one can estimate groundwater storage variations. GRACE may be the only hope for groundwater depletion assessments in data-poor regions of the world. In this study, soil moisture and snow were simulated by the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and used to isolate groundwater storage anomalies from GRACE water storage data for the Mississippi River basin and its four major sub-basins. Results were evaluated using water level records from 58 wells set in the unconfined aquifers of the basin. Uncertainty in the technique was also assessed. The GRACE-GLDAS estimates compared favorably with the well based time series for the Mississippi River basin and the two sub-basins that are larger than 900,000 km². The technique performed poorly for the two sub-basins that have areas of approximately 500,000 km². Continuing enhancement of the GRACE processing methods is likely to improve the skill of the technique in the future, while also increasing the temporal resolution.     

Identifying Water Storage Variation in Krishna Basin,India from <Emphasis Type="Italic">in situ</Emphasis> and Satellite based Hydrological Data

Terrestrial water storage (TWS), a sum total of water stored on or beneath the earth’s surface, transits in response to hydroclimatic processes such as precipitation, evapo-transpiration, runoff etc. and serves an indicator of hydrological condition of a region. We analyse spatio-temporal variance of water storage in Krishna Basin, India, derived from in-situ groundwater data and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data in order to determine physical causes of variations, and compare the variance with climatic factors such as Cumulative Rainfall Departure (CRD) and drought index i.e. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). GRACE satellite based TWS is found to reflect insitu groundwater changes and also shows a relationship with drought patterns as indicated by a good correlation with SPI. The largest part of TWS represents seasonal flux, and at an interannual scale, TWS depicts spatio-temporal variability in response to drought index viz. SPI. We infer that the groundwater storage derived from GRACE time-variable gravity solutions can be utilised to complement in-situ observations at basin scale and it reflects climatic forcing quite well.