Simulation of the radiative effect of black carbon aerosols and the regional climate responses over China

As part of the development work of the Chinese new regional climate model (RIEMS), the radiative process of black carbon (BC) aerosols has been introduced into the original radiative procedures of RIEMS,and the transport model of BC aerosols has also been established and combined with the RIEMS model.Using the new model system, the distribution of black carbon aerosols and their radiative effect over the China region are investigated. The influences of BC aerosole on the atmospheric radiative transfer and on the air temperature, land surface temperature, and total rainfall are analyzed. It is found that BC aerosols induce a positive radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which is dominated by shortwave radiative forcing. The maximum radiative forcing occurs in North China in July and in South China in April. At the same time, negative radiative forcing is observed on the surface. Based on the radiative forcing comparison between clear sky and cloudy sky, it is found that cloud can enforce the TOA positive radiative forcing and decrease the negative surface radiative forcing. The responses of the climate system in July to the radiative forcing due to BC aerosols are the decrease in the air temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River and Huaihe area and most areas of South China, and the weak increase or decrease in air temperature over North China. The total rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River area is increased, but it decreased in North China in July.     

Greenhouse-gas versus aerosol forcing and African climate response

There are many indicators that human activity may change climate conditions all around the globe through emissions of greenhouse gases. In addition, aerosol particles are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. One important source of aerosols arises from biomass burning, particularly in low latitudes where shifting cultivation and land degradation lead to enhanced aerosol burden. In this study the counteracting effects of greenhouse gases and aerosols on African climate are compared using climate model experiments with fully interactive aerosols from different sources. The consideration of aerosol emissions induces a remarkable decrease in short-wave solar irradiation near the surface, especially in winter and autumn in tropical West Africa and the Congo Basin where biomass burning is mainly prevailing. This directly leads to a modification of the surface energy budget with reduced sensible heat fluxes. As a consequence, temperature decreases, compensating the strong warming signal due to enhanced trace gas concentrations. While precipitation in tropical Africa is less sensitive to the greenhouse warming, it tends to decrease, if the effect of aerosols from biomass burning is taken into account. This is partly due to the local impact of enhanced aerosol burden and partly to modifications of the large-scale monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere, usually lagging behind the season with maximum aerosol emissions. In the model equilibrium experiments, the greenhouse gas impact on temperature stands out from internal variability at various time scales from daily to decadaland the same holds for precipitation under the additional aerosol forcing. Greenhouse gases and aerosols exhibit an opposite effect on daily temperature extremes, resulting in an compensation of the individual responses under the combined forcing. In terms of precipitation, daily extreme events tend to be reduced under aerosol forcing, particularly over the tropical Atlantic and the Congo basin. These results suggest that the simulation of the multiple aerosol effects from anthropogenic sources represents an important factor in tropical climate change, hence, requiring more attention in climate modelling attempts.     

东亚地区人为气溶胶直接辐射强迫及其气候效应的数值模拟

利用耦合化学过程的区域气候模式RegCM3,模拟研究3种主要人为排放气溶胶(硫酸盐、黑碳、有机碳)对东亚区域气候的影响.计算分析近20 a来3种气溶胶的时空分布、综合辐射强迫作用及其对地面气温和降水的影响.模拟结果表明:3种气溶胶冬夏季分布有所不同,冬季气溶胶大值区主要分布在南方地区,而夏季大值区北移;气溶胶短波辐射强迫在大气层顶和地面均为负值;气溶胶的加入对东亚地区地表气温有明显影响,冬季降温中心位于四川盆地,夏季降温大值区位于华北地区.气溶胶直接气候效应使得冬季东亚大部分地区降水减少,夏季东亚地区降水与中国南方地区夏季气溶胶浓度有较好的相关关系,中国东部雨带有南移趋势.     

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.     

The effects of aerosols on the response of a two-dimensional zonally-averaged climate model

Summary The response of climate processes to changes in aerosols is investigated using a two-dimensional zonally-averaged climate model. To account for the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of aerosol distributions, a strongly scattering maritime aerosol over ocean and a strongly absorbing rural aerosol over land are used in the layer between the surface and the 700 mb level. The effects of aerosols, gases and clouds on the radiative transfer are computed concurrently using a parameterized form of a two-stream approximation. Aerosols induce a reduction of the solar absorption at the surface and an enhancement of atmospheric absorption. The resulting changes in the climate model parameters are not only a function of the radiatively-active atmospheric constituents, but also of the amplifying or dampening effects of feedback processes employed in the model calculations. For the specified aerosol types and the optical thickness distribution given by Potter and Cess, the annual temperature change at the surface is –2.1 °C with ice-albedo feedback. Without ice-albedo feedback the corresponding value is –1.4 °C. In the present study aerosols produce a cooling effect in the atmosphere at all latitudes.

---

Zusammenfassung Der Einfluß von unterschiedlichen Aerosolen auf Klimaprozesse wird mit Hilfe eines zweidimensionalen Klimamodells untersucht. Um die zeitliche und räumliche Variabilität von Aerosolverteilungen zu berücksichtigen, wird über dem Meer ein überwiegend streuendes Aerosol und über Land ein überwiegend absorbierendes Aerosol in der Schicht zwischen dem Erdboden und dem 700 mb Niveau betrachtet. Der Einfluß von Aerosolen, Gasen und Wolken auf den Strahlungstransport wird mit Hilfe einer parametrisierten Zweistromapproximation berechnet. Aerosole verursachen eine Reduzierung der solaren Absorption an der Erdoberfläche und eine Verstärkung der atmosphärischen Absorption. Resultierende Änderungen der Klimamodellparameter sind nicht nur eine Funktion der strahlungsaktiven atmosphärischen Bestandteile, sondern auch von verstärkenden oder dämpfenden Rückkopplungsprozessen. Für die hier benutzten speziellen Aerosoltypen und die Verteilung der optischen Dicke nach Potter and Cess ergibt sich eine Änderung in der Jahresmitteltemperatur von –2,1 °C unter Berücksichtigung des Eis-Albedo-Rückkopplungseffekts. Ohne diesen Mechanismus beträgt die entsprechende Temperaturänderung –1,4 °C. In der Atmosphäre ergibt sich ebenfalls eine Temperaturabnahme in allen Breiten.

---

---

With 7 Figures     

Orbital forcing of Arctic climate: mechanisms of climate response and implications for continental glaciation

Progress in understanding how terrestrial ice volume is linked to Earths orbital configuration has been impeded by the cost of simulating climate system processes relevant to glaciation over orbital time scales (10³–10⁵ years). A compromise is usually made to represent the climate system by models that are averaged over one or more spatial dimensions or by three-dimensional models that are limited to simulating particular snapshots in time. We take advantage of the short equilibration time (10 years) of a climate model consisting of a three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a simple slab ocean to derive the equilibrium climate response to accelerated variations in Earths orbital configuration over the past 165,000 years. Prominent decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall are simulated during three time intervals near 26, 73, and 117 thousand years ago (ka) when aphelion was in late spring and obliquity was low. There were also significant decreases in ice melt and increases in snowfall near 97 and 142 ka when eccentricity was relatively large, aphelion was in late spring, and obliquity was high or near its long term mean. These glaciation-friendly time intervals correspond to prominent and secondary phases of terrestrial ice growth seen within the marine ¹⁸O record. Both dynamical and thermal effects contribute to the increases in snowfall during these periods, through increases in storm activity and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow. The majority of the mid- to high latitude response to orbital forcing is organized by the properties of sea ice, through its influence on radiative feedbacks that nearly double the size of the orbital forcing as well as its influence on the seasonal evolution of the latitudinal temperature gradient.     

Climate forcing by carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols

 An atmospheric general circulation model is coupled to an atmospheric chemistry model to calculate the radiative forcing by anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols. The latter aerosols result from biomass burning as well as fossil fuel burning. The black carbon associated with carbonaceous aerosols is absorbant and can decrease the amount of reflected radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere. In contrast, sulfate aerosols are reflectant and the amount of reflected radiation depends nonlinearly on the relative humidity. We examine the importance of treating the range of optical properties associated with sulfate aerosol at high relative humidities and find that the direct forcing by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols can decrease from −0.81 W m^-2 to −0.55 Wm^-2 if grid box average relative humidity is not allowed to increase above 90%. The climate forcing associated with fossil fuel emissions of carbonaceous aerosols is calculated to range from +0.16 to +0.20 Wm^-2, depending on how much organic carbon is associated with the black carbon from fossil fuel burning. The direct forcing of carbonaceous aerosols associated with biomass burning is calculated to range from −0.23 to −0.16 Wm^-2. The pattern of forcing by carbonaceous aerosols depends on both the surface albedo and the presence of clouds. Multiple scattering associated with clouds and high surface albedos can change the forcing from negative to positive. Received: 29 September 1997 / Accepted: 10 June 1998     

A regional and global analysis of carbon dioxide physiological forcing and its impact on climate

An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has both a radiative (greenhouse) effect and a physiological effect on climate. The physiological effect forces climate as plant stomata do not open as wide under enhanced CO₂ levels and this alters the surface energy balance by reducing the evapotranspiration flux to the atmosphere, a process referred to as ‘carbon dioxide physiological forcing’. Here the climate impact of the carbon dioxide physiological forcing is isolated using an ensemble of twelve 5-year experiments with the Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3LC fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model where atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are instantaneously quadrupled and thereafter held constant. Fast responses (within a few months) to carbon dioxide physiological forcing are analyzed at a global and regional scale. Results show a strong influence of the physiological forcing on the land surface energy budget, hydrological cycle and near surface climate. For example, global precipitation rate reduces by ~3% with significant decreases over most land-regions, mainly from reductions to convective rainfall. This fast hydrological response is still evident after 5 years of model integration. Decreased evapotranspiration over land also leads to land surface warming and a drying of near surface air, both of which lead to significant reductions in near surface relative humidity (~6%) and cloud fraction (~3%). Patterns of fast responses consistently show that results are largest in the Amazon and central African forest, and to a lesser extent in the boreal and temperate forest. Carbon dioxide physiological forcing could be a source of uncertainty in many model predicted quantities, such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response and the hydrological sensitivity. These results highlight the importance of including biological components of the Earth system in climate change studies.     

亚洲地区碳气溶胶的时空特征及其直接气候效应

利用耦合了陆面和化学过程的区域气候模式Reg CM4.0,对2000—2008年亚洲地区碳气溶胶的时空分布特征及其直接气候效应进行了模拟研究。结果表明:碳气溶胶在冬夏两季主要分布于印度半岛和我国中东部地区,其中印度半岛东北部和四川盆地地区为主要的大值区。夏季随着亚洲季风的爆发和雨季的到来,碳气溶胶的含量和分布范围较冬季有明显的减弱和北移。冬季碳气溶胶对整个亚洲地区的地表主要起冷却作用,而夏季在我国的四川盆地、华北和华南等地则出现了升温现象,这种局部升温现象与黑碳的"半直接效应"密切相关。碳气溶胶对降水影响的空间分布呈现出明显的地域不一致性,对南亚夏季风有一定的增强作用。东亚和南亚地区对碳气溶胶的气候响应存在较大差异,主要表现在夏季南亚地区低层降温、中高层增温,而东亚地区的增温却主要集中在低层。     

The effects of black carbon and sulphate aerosols in China regions on East Asia monsoons

In this paper, we examine the direct effects of sulphate and black carbon (BC) aerosols in China on East Asia monsoons and its precipitation processes by using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3.0 model. It is demonstrated that sulphate and BC aerosols in China both have the effects to weaken East Asia monsoons in both summer and winter seasons. However, they certainly differ from each other in affecting vertical structures of temperature and atmospheric circulations. Their differences are expected because of their distinct optical properties, that is, scattering versus absorbing. Even for a single type of aerosol, its effects on temperature structures and atmospheric circulations are largely season-dependent. Applications of T -test on our results indicate that forcing from BC aerosols over China is relatively weak and limited. It is also evident from our results that the effects of synthetic aerosols (sulphate and BC together) on monsoons are not simply a linear summation between these two types of aerosols. Instead, they are determined by their integrated optical properties. Synthetic aerosols to a large degree resemble effects of sulphate aerosols. This implies a likely scattering property for the integration of BC and sulphate aerosols in China.     

Characteristics and source of black carbon aerosols at Akedala station, Central Asia

Black carbon concentration and weather data were online monitored continuously from March 2008 to February 2009 at the Akedala regional atmosphere station in the arid region of Central Asia. We present the daily, monthly and seasonal variations of BC concentration in the atmosphere and discuss the possible emission sources. Black carbon concentration in this region varies in the range of 43.7–1,559.2?ng/m³. A remarkable seasonal variation of BC in the aerosol was observed in the order of winter?>?spring?>?autumn?>?summer. The peak value of BC appeared at 10:00–13:00 while the lowest one at 7:00–9:00 each day. Air masses backward trajectories show the potential emission sources in the northwest from spring to autumn. Through back trajectory also revealed that BC in winter might be attributed to the emission from the anthropogenic activities, including domestic heating, cooking, combustion of oil and natural gas, and the medium-range transport from those cities in northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and Siberia. Some BC aerosols from the arid region of Central Asia were transported to the Pacific Ocean by the Westerlies.     

山东惠民黑碳气溶胶变化特征及来源分析

利用山东惠民国家基准气候站2018年12月—2019年11月的黑碳质量浓度、常规气象观测资料以及 GDAS 数据,研究了该地区黑碳气溶胶的变化特征,并基于后向轨迹模型对其潜在源区进行了分析。研究结果表明: 1）观测期间,黑碳质量浓度平均值为 3.22 µg ? m-3,季节变化呈冬、春季高,夏、秋季低的特点;春、夏、秋季黑碳质量浓度的高频值在 2 µg ? m-3 以内,冬季的高频值在 6 µg ? m-3 以上。2）黑碳质量浓度日变化呈双峰结构,峰值分别出现在 06:00—08:00 和 19:00—21:00,谷值出现于 13:00—15:00。3）降雨和风对黑碳质量浓度有明显影响。非降雨期黑碳质量浓度是降雨期的 2.8 倍;当风速小于 3 m ? s-1 时,黑碳质量浓度随风速增大而减小;冬季在西南西方向、春季在正南方向过来的气团易造成黑碳质量浓度高污染。4）惠民气流输送的季节变化特征明显。春、秋、冬季来自鲁中、河北和苏北等周边地区的气流所占比例较高,对应黑碳质量浓度高值;夏季来自海洋方向的气流占比较高,对应的黑碳质量浓度较低。     

Correlation between black carbon aerosols, carbon monoxide and tropospheric ozone over a tropical urban site

Black carbon aerosols plays an important role in the earth's radiative balance and little is known of their concentrations, distributions, source strength, and especially the aerosol chemistry of the developing world. The present study addresses the impact of back carbon aerosols on different atmospheric species like CO and tropospheric ozone over an urban environment, namely Hyderabad, India. Ozone concentration varies from 14 to 63 ppbv over the study area. Diurnal variations of ozone suggest that ozone concentration starts increasing gradually after sunrise, attaining a maximum value by evening time and decreasing gradually thereafter. Black carbon (BC) aerosol mass concentrations varies from 1471 to 11,175 ng m⁻³. The diurnal variations of BC suggest that the concentrations are increased by a factor of 2 during morning (06:00–09:00 h) and evening hours (18:00 to 22:00 h) compared to afternoon hours. Positive correlation has been observed between BC and CO (r²=0.74) with an average slope of 6.4×10⁻³ g BC/g CO. The slope between black carbon aerosol mass concentration and tropospheric ozone suggests that every 1 μg m⁻³ increase in black carbon aerosol mass concentration causes a 3.5 μg m⁻³ reduction in tropospheric ozone. The results have been discussed in detail in the paper.     

Radiative effects of black carbon aerosols on Indian monsoon: a study using WRF-Chem model

The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is utilized to examine the radiative effects of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the Indian monsoon, for the year 2010. Five ensemble simulations with different initial conditions (1st to 5th December, 2009) were performed and simulation results between 1st January, 2010 to 31st December, 2010 were used for analysis. Most of the BC which stays near the surface during the pre-monsoon season gets transported to higher altitudes with the northward migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the monsoon season. In both the seasons, strong negative SW anomalies are present at the surface along with positive anomalies in the atmosphere, which results in the surface cooling and lower tropospheric heating, respectively. During the pre-monsoon season, lower troposphere heating causes increased convection and enhanced meridional wind circulation, bringing moist air from Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal to the North-East India, leading to increased rainfall there. However, during the monsoon season, along with cooling over the land regions, a warming over the Bay of Bengal is simulated. This differential heating results in an increased westerly moisture flux anomaly over central India, leading to increased rainfall over northern parts of India but decreased rainfall over southern parts. Decreased rainfall over southern India is also substantiated by the presence of increased evaporation over Bay of Bengal and decrease over land regions.     

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to tropospheric ozone

This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean.     

Simulation of climate phase lags in response to precession and obliquity forcing and the role of vegetation

Long (130,000 years) transient simulations with a coupled model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2) have been performed. The main objective of this study is to examine leads and lags in the response to the climate system to separate obliquity and precession-induced insolation changes. Focus is on the role of internal feedbacks in the coupled atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice/vegetation system. No interactive ice sheets were used. The results show that leads and lags occur in response to the African/Asian monsoon, temperatures at high latitudes and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. For the monsoon, leads and lags of the monthly precipitation with respect to the precession parameter were found, which are strongly modified by vegetation. In contrast, no lag was observed for the annual precipitation. At high latitudes during late winter/early spring a vegetation-induced lag with respect to the precession parameter was found in surface air temperatures. Again, no annual lag was detected. The lag in the monthly surface air temperatures induces a lag in the annual overturning in the Atlantic Ocean by changing the strength of the deep convection. The lag is several thousand years. The obliquity-related forcing does not give rise to lags in the climate system. We conclude that lags in monthly climatic variables, which are due to vegetation feedbacks, can result in an annual lag when a climatic process (like deep water formation) acts as a filter for certain months.     

Effect of wind forcing on the meridional heat transport in a coupled climate model: equilibrium response

Climate Dynamics - The effect of the ocean surface winds on the meridional heat transports is studied in a coupled model. Shutting down the global surface winds causes significant reductions in...     

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator.     

Equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon to forcing of anthropogenic aerosol species

We used an online aerosol–climate model to study the equilibrium climate response of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) to increases in anthropogenic emissions of sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols from 1850 to 2000. Our results show that each of these aerosol species has a different effect on the EASM as a result of changes in the local sea–land thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation. The increased emission of sulfate aerosol leads to a decrease in the thermal contrast between the land and ocean, a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet, and significant northerly wind anomalies at 850 hPa over eastern China and the ambient oceans, markedly dampening the EASM. An increase in organic carbon aerosol results in pronounced surface cooling and the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over the oceans north of 30°N. These effects cause a slight increase in the sea–land thermal contrast and southerly flow anomalies to the west of the anticyclonic center, strengthening the northern EASM. An increase in organic carbon emission decreases the sea–land thermal contrast over southern China, which weakens the southern EASM. The response of the summer 850-hPa winds and rainfall over the East Asian monsoon region to an increase in black carbon emission is generally consistent with the response to an increase in organic carbon. The increase in black carbon emission leads to a strengthening of the northern EASM north of 35°N and a slight weakening of the southern EASM south of 35°N. The simulated response of the EASM to the increase in black carbon emission is unchanged when the emission of black carbon is scaled up by five times its year 2000 levels, although the intensities of the response is enhanced. The increase in sulfate emission primarily weakens the EASM, whereas the increases in black carbon and organic carbon emissions mitigate weakening of the northern EASM.