Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model

Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies, formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance.     

Mechanism on how the spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon

Observational analysis and purposely designed coupled atmosphere–ocean (AOGCM) and atmosphere-only (AGCM) model simulations are used together to investigate a new mechanism describing how spring Arctic sea ice impacts the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Consistent with previous studies, analysis of observational data from 1979 to 2009 show that spring Arctic sea ice is significantly linked to the EASM on inter-annual timescales. Results of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis reveal that sea surface temperature (SST) changes in the North Pacific play a mediating role for the inter-seasonal connection between spring Arctic sea ice and the EASM. Large-scale atmospheric circulation and precipitation changes are consistent with the SST changes. The mechanism found in the observational data is confirmed by the numerical experiments and can be described as follows: spring Arctic sea ice anomalies cause atmospheric circulation anomalies, which, in turn, cause SST anomalies in the North Pacific. The SST anomalies can persist into summer and then impact the summer monsoon circulation and precipitation over East Asia. The mediating role of SST changes is highlighted by the result that only the AOGCM, but not the AGCM, reproduces the observed sea ice-EASM linkage.     

The Western Mediterranean summer variability and its feedbacks

The anomalous climatic variability of the Western Mediterranean in summer, its relationships with the large scale climatic teleconnection modes and its feedbacks from some of these modes are the targets of this study. The most important trait of this variability is the recurrence of warm and cold episodes, that take place at 2–4 year intervals, and which are monitored in the Western Mediterranean Index. We find that the Western Mediterranean events are part of a basin scale mode, and are related to the previous spring atmospheric anomalies. These anomalies are related mainly to the Pacific North America teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation, but also to a number of other climatic modes, connected with the previous two, as the Southern Oscillation, the Indian Core Monsoon and the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. We identify the main spatial and temporal traits of the Western Mediterranean summer variability, the physical mechanisms at play in the generation of the events and their impacts. Considering the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean events influence the sea surface temperature in the southeastern part of the North Atlantic Gyre. Additionally, they are significantly related to summer precipitation anomalies of the opposite sign in the Baltic basin (Central Germany and Poland) and near the Black Sea. We then estimate the mutual influence that the anomalous previous state of the Western Mediterranean, of the Pacific North America teleconnection pattern and of the North Atlantic Oscillation have on their summer conditions using a simple stochastic model. As the summer Western Mediterranean events have an influence on a part of the Baltic basin, we propose a second stochastic model in order to investigate if thereafter the Baltic basin variability will feedback on the Western Mediterranean sea surface temperature anomalies. Among the variables included in the second model are, in addition to the Western Mediterranean previous state, that of the Baltic Sea and of the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. From each of the feedback matrices, a linear statistical analysis extracts spatial patterns whose evolution in time exhibits predictive capabilities for the Western Mediterranean evolution in summer and autumn that are above those of persistence, and that could be improved.     

Arctic hazes in summer over Greenland and the North American Arctic. I: Incidence and origins

Airborne observations during August 1985 over Greenland and the North American Arctic revealed that dense, discrete haze layers were common above 850 mb. No such hazes were found near the surface in areas remote from local sources of particles. The haze layers aloft were characterized by large light-scattering coefficients due to dry particles (maximum value 1.24 × 10^–4m^–1) and relatively high total particle concentrations (maximum value 3100 cm^–3). Sulfate was the dominant ionic component of the aerosol (0.06 – 1.9 g m^–3); carbon soot was also present. Evidence for relatively fresh aerosols, accompanied by NO₂ and O₃ depletion, was found near, but not within, the haze layers. The hazes probably derived from anthropogenic sources and/or biomass burning at midlatitudes.It is hypothesized that the scavenging of particles by stratus clouds plays an important role in reducing the frequency and intensity of hazes at the surface in the Arctic in summer. Since the detection of haze layers aloft through measurements of column-integrated parameters from the surface (e.g., by lidar) cannot be carried out reliably when clouds are present, such measurements have likely underestimated the occurrence of haze layers in the Arctic, particularly in summer.     

Variability of summer cloudiness in the Arctic Basin

Summary The extent and thickness of clouds in the Arctic Basin varied considerably in space and time in the late springs and summers of 1977–1979. While, on the average, clouds covered two thirds or more of the basin at any one time, cloud-free episodes were particularly common from the middle of June to late July and persisted locally for several days or even weeks. The central Arctic was less cloudy than the ocean zones closer to the coast in spring, but more cloudy in summer. Most clouds were semi-transparent, allowing recognition of underlying surface features. Optically thick clouds with middle and high level tops were associated with low pressure systems and with atmospheric flows from lower latitudes at the surface and aloft. Cloud-free skies were most frequent in high pressure cells. Climate models used to assess the impact of CO₂ and other trace gases on the radiation budget in the high latitudes should account for the heterogeneity of cloud extent and thickness in the Arctic Basin.With 12 Figures     

辽宁东南部一次强降雪天气的成因分析

利用常规观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、多普勒雷达资料等对2015年2月25日辽宁东南部一次强降雪过程进行分析。结果表明：此次强降雪过程发生在低空切变线东侧暖湿区对应高空急流出口区左侧的辐散区内,有强的水汽辐合中心;地面偏南气流受山前地形抬升作用在强降水区形成风向辐合和850 hPa以下急流中心,是造成强降雪的主要原因之一;暴雪过程开始前6 h出现温度平流随高度减小的配置,假相当位温空间分布上锋区的形成,有利于不稳定层结的建立;8～12 h前正涡度平流、中低层风向辐合带、近地面冷空气层的建立以及次级环流的形成加强了上升运动,对强降雪预报具有很好的指示作用;在降水相态是雨或雨夫雪时,雷达回波最大强度达到40～45 dBZ,而强降雪时回波强度为20～25 dBZ;当大连本站850 hPa温度以及1 000 hPa与850 hPa两层等压面之间的厚度处于雨雪转换临界值时,大连南部为雨或雨夹雪,北部为雪,此时出现强降雪,回波高度基本在6 km以下,最强回波25～35 dBZ维持在1 km以下,近地层为弱偏北风,与其上的西南风在边界层形成切变层,将暖湿气流抬升,为强降水提供动力条件。     

北京城市化对一次降雪过程影响的数值模拟研究

利用中尺度数值预报（Weather Research and Forecast,WRF）模式,针对2018年3月17日05—17时（北京时）北京地区的一次降雪过程模拟分析了城市化对降雪的主要影响机制。结果表明,城市化使得北京五环以内降雪量减少,降雨量增加,这主要是由于城市化低层增温效应加强了雪的融化过程,产生混合型降水,距离市中心越近越容易发生混合型降水。城市化对降雪的总降水量和降水的时、空分布也存在一定的影响。降水初期,城市化造成的“城市干热岛”效应不利于水汽的水平和垂直输送,不利于云的形成,地面总降水量减小。随着降水过程的发展,部分冰相粒子融化,使近地面水汽增多,“城市热岛效应”的热力抬升作用有利于水汽的垂直输送和云的发展,部分云滴或水汽抬升进入云中,增强冷云过程,使雪和霰粒子含量增大,地面总降水量增加。城市化产生的“城市效应”对低层大气温度和云微物理过程产生影响,而云微物理过程的非绝热过程反过来又影响低层大气温度和大气层结,影响能量和水汽输送,进而对云和地面降水产生影响。      

Arctic hazes in summer over Greenland and the North American Arctic: II. Nature and concentrations of accumulation-mode and giant particles

Airborne measurements made during August 1985 over Greenland and its environs show that both accumulation-mode (0.1 m D2.0 m) and giant (D2 m) particles were present in relatively high concentrations in arctic haze layers and that the accumulation-mode particles dominated light scattering. Particles with diameters (D) between 1 and 4 m consisted predominately of mixed materials, small and dense inclusions, and probably organic compounds containing sulfur. Many of the particles from 0.1 to 1 m in diameter were also of mixed composition, with sulfuric acid, ammonium sulfate and organics probably the dominant constituents.     

The impacts of the Indian summer rainfall on North China summer rainfall

Previous studies have indicated a connection between interannual variations of the Indian and North China summer rainfall. An atmospheric circulation wave pattern over the mid-latitude Asia plays an important role in the connection. The present study compares the influence of the above-normal and below-normal Indian summer rainfall on the North China summer rainfall variations. Composite analysis shows that the mid-latitude Asian atmospheric circulation and the North China rainfall anomalies during summer tend to be anti-symmetric in above-normal and below-normal Indian rainfall years. Analysis indicates that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relation tends to be stronger when larger Indian rainfall anomaly occurs during a higher mean rainfall period. The observed long-term change in the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship cannot be explained by the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study evaluates the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship in climate models. Analysis shows that the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship differs largely among different climate models and among different simulations of a specific model. The relationship also displays obvious temporal variations in both individual and ensemble mean model simulations. This suggests an important role of the atmospheric internal variability in the change of the Indian-North China summer rainfall relationship.     

Population increase impacts the climate,using the sensitive Arctic as an example

The global population during the last 100 years has increased from 2 to 7.7 billion, causing an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In order to see how population increase is directly related to physical variables of the climate, this Perspective article places observations and scenarios of climate change into context and puts forth a statistical modeling study on how the sensitive Arctic climate responds to the increasing population. The relationships between population, Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE), and surface air temperature (SAT) are very strong, with the increasing population explaining 96% of the decreasing SIE and about 80% of the increasing SAT in the Arctic. Our projection for the SIE using the population as a “proxy predictor” for a projected population of 10 billion people on the Earth in 2100, yields a SIE of 9.30 and 8.21 million km² for a linear and squared relationship, respectively, indicating no “tipping point” for the annual ice extent in this century. This adds another dimension to climate understanding for the public at large using population as a proxy variable, instead of the more abstract CO₂ parameter. This also indicates that it is important to attempt to limit the ongoing increase in population, which is the main cause of the greenhouse gas emissions, in addition to reducing per capita emissions by an exponential increase in implementing renewable energy, a formidable challenge in this century.     

The summer radiation and heat budget of the Arctic and Antarctic

Summary For two pairs of arctic and antarctic stations, one coastal and one mountainous, an intercomparison between the summer radiation and surface energy budgets was carried out. The station pairs were similar in both latitude and altitude. It was found that the global radiation was larger for both antarctic stations. This is the result of a smaller Earth-Sun distance and cleaner atmosphere in Antarctica. Cloudiness, and for the arctic mountainous station substantial screening of the sun, also contributed. Further, large differences were found in the albedo. In the Arctic, the summer surfaces considered were bare tundra and melting snow, with respective albedos of 20 and 59%, while in Antarctica the surfaces considered were melting and dry snow, with albedos of 67 and 83% respectively.This results in a less positive radiation balance at both antarctic stations, despite the higher incoming global radiation. In turn, less sensible heat transfer from the surface to air results in lower temperatures in the Antarctic. The reduced rate of evaporation in Antarctica results in a drier atmosphere and less cloudy conditions.

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Zusammenfassung Für jeweils zwei arktische und antarktische Stationen, von denen jeweils eine an der Küste, eine in den Bergen liegt, wurden Vergleiche in bezug auf sommerliche Strahlungs- und Oberflächenenergiebilanz angestellt. Die Stationen liegen auf vergleichbarer Höhe und Breite. Es hat sich gezeigt, daß die Gesamt-Einstrahlung in den antarktischen Stationen größer war, aufgrund geringerer Erde-Sonnen-Distanz und der reineren Atmosphäre. Bewölkung und vor allem die für die arktischen Gebirgsstationen ausschlaggebende Sonnenabschirmung tragen auch zu dieser Differenz bei. Weiters wurden starke Albedounterschiede beobachtet. In der Arktis waren die Beobachtungsoberflächen im Sommer offene Tundra und schmelzender Schnee mit einer Albedo von 20 bzw. 59%, während die Antarktisoberflächen, nasser und trockener Schnee, eine Albedo von 67 bzw. 83% aufwiesen.Dies ergibt eine weniger positive Strahlungsbilanz für die beiden antarktischen Stationen trotz höherer Gesamteinstrahlung. Infolgedessen bewirkt die geringere Wärmeabgabe des Bodens an die Luft niedere Temperaturen in der Antarktis. Geringere Verdunstung ergibt somit geringere Bewölkung und eine trockenere Atmosphäre über der Antarktis.

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With 5 Figures     

Arctic hazes in summer over Greenland and the North American Arctic. III: A contribution from the natural burning of carbonaceous materials and pyrites

Airborne measurements of the emissions from natural fires, fueled by pyrites and organic materials, at the Smoking Hills in the Northwest Territories, show that they are a regionally significant source of SO₂ (0.3 kg s^–1 or 10⁴ T yr^–1) and particles (0.3 kg s^–1). It appears likely that the Smoking Hills are a source for some of the dense, lower-level, haze layers that occur in the North American Arctic.     

中国北方暴雪的年代际变化及其与大气环流和北极海冰的联系

采用相关、回归等统计方法,对中国北方暴雪的年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和北极海冰的联系进行探讨。结果表明:中国北方冬季暴雪发生频次较高区域主要位于东北,在空间分布上呈现由西北向东南增加的态势,且存在明显的年代际变化特征:1965—1980年为东北暴雪少发期; 2002—2011年为东北暴雪多发期。分析表明:暴雪少发期,输送至东北的水汽较少;暴雪多发期,更多的水汽输送来自于西北太平洋,同时偏北气流引导的极地冷空气与偏南风引导的太平洋暖湿空气在东北地区汇合,提供暴雪频发的动力条件,造成东北暴雪出现年代际增多。此外,研究发现:前期秋季北极海冰的年代际减少与东北暴雪的年代际增加存在很好的相关性;秋季北极海冰异常偏少导致的大气环流异常主要表现为纬向西风减弱和NAO负位相,由此导致大气经向活动增强,利于极地冷空气向南入侵,且冷空气与暖湿空气在东北地区汇合,这是东北暴雪年代际增加的重要原因之一。     

The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.     

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.     

夏季进入北极温带气旋的活动特征及其影响因素

进入北极地区的气旋在移动过程中往往伴有大风、强降水等特征,对北极气候变化有深刻的影响。基于NCEP2再分析资料,识别并跟踪了北半球夏季(6—8月)从中纬度进入北极的温带气旋,考察了其年际变化特征和影响因素。结果表明：1979—2019年夏季进入北极的温带气旋共867个,其中消失在北极边缘区域和中心区域的数量分别为688个和161个,且后者平均强度更大、平均持续时间更长。分区域研究发现,夏季从陆地进入极区的气旋个数较多,而从海洋进入极区的气旋强度更大,活动更为剧烈。对进入北极的气旋年际时间序列进行分析发现,夏季进入北极的气旋个数和强度均存在年际变率,其中气旋个数的年际变率尤为显著。气旋个数年际变率主要周期为5 a,强度的主要周期约为2.7 a。进一步分析发现,引导气流是影响气旋向北移动的重要因素。此外,夏季北大西洋气旋强度与同期北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)指数存在较好相关。研究还表明,进入极区气旋活动的年际变化受大气斜压不稳定性的影响,在北太平洋地区区域平均的Eady增长率与气旋个数和强度的相关性均最强,相关系数分别为0.4和0.5。     

Impacts of the extratropical North Pacific on boreal summer Arctic circulation

北极夏季大气环流的一个显着特征是以北冰洋为中心的异常反气旋环流,与北极增暖存在紧密的联系.先前的研究已将其形成的潜在机制与早春欧亚融雪,热带太平洋海表温度异常联系起来.本研究发现北极夏季反气旋环流异常与春季副热带北太平洋海表温度异常(SSTA)存在显着联系,表明副热带北太平洋与北极之间存在遥相关.该SSTA的特点是北太平洋中纬度地区有暖的SSTA,周围有明显的冷SSTA,类似于太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的负位相,但热带地区没有明显的信号(本研究称之为类负位相PDO).5月份,这种类负位相PDO可以激发从白令海传播到北极的罗斯贝波,导致北极出现反气旋环流异常.这种反气旋环流异常可以持续到夏季.同时,这种类负位相PDO的SSTA可以持续到夏季,并在夏季引起白令海上空的低压异常.这种低层的低压异常会导致异常的上升运动,并引起高层的辐散异常,从而进一步加剧夏季北极对流层上层的反气旋环流异常.这种反气旋环流异常可迫使北极上空出现异常绝热下沉运动,导致北极出现显著的绝热加热.于是,北极上空出现显著的暖异常,其暖中心位于北极对流层中部.数值模拟试验证实了5月份类负位相PDO的SSTA与夏季北极反气旋...     

A transitioning Arctic surface energy budget: the impacts of solar zenith angle, surface albedo and cloud radiative forcing

Snow surface and sea-ice energy budgets were measured near 87.5°N during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), from August to early September 2008. Surface temperature indicated four distinct temperature regimes, characterized by varying cloud, thermodynamic and solar properties. An initial warm, melt-season regime was interrupted by a 3-day cold regime where temperatures dropped from near zero to ?7°C. Subsequently mean energy budget residuals remained small and near zero for 1 week until once again temperatures dropped rapidly and the energy budget residuals became negative. Energy budget transitions were dominated by the net radiative fluxes, largely controlled by the cloudiness. Variable heat, moisture and cloud distributions were associated with changing air-masses. Surface cloud radiative forcing, the net radiative effect of clouds on the surface relative to clear skies, is estimated. Shortwave cloud forcing ranged between ?50 W m^?2 and zero and varied significantly with surface albedo, solar zenith angle and cloud liquid water. Longwave cloud forcing was larger and generally ranged between 65 and 85 W m^?2, except when the cloud fraction was tenuous or contained little liquid water; thus the net effect of the clouds was to warm the surface. Both cold periods occurred under tenuous, or altogether absent, low-level clouds containing little liquid water, effectively reducing the cloud greenhouse effect. Freeze-up progression was enhanced by a combination of increasing solar zenith angles and surface albedo, while inhibited by a large, positive surface cloud forcing until a new air-mass with considerably less cloudiness advected over the experiment area.