天然气“十二五”规划获批

近日,国家发改委网站消息称,《天然气发展"十二五"规划》已获国务院批复,规划明确了增加资源供应、加快管网和LNG接收站建设、抓紧储气设施建设、加强科技创新、实施节约替代和提高能效工程等重点任务。国家发改委副主任、国家能源局局长刘铁男指出,"十二五"是全面构建现代能源产业体系的关键时期,也是天然气产业发展迈上新台阶的重要时期。为此,要切实抓     

全球液化天然气运输网络特征及其演化

液化天然气(liquefied natural gas,LNG)作为一种清洁低碳能源,在全球能源消费市场中发挥着越来越重要的作用.LNG通过船舶在港口之间进行运输,但当前对港口尺度下的贸易模式及其演化了解相对有限.因此,本文采用复杂网络指标和社区探测方法,利用2013-2017年全球LNG船舶轨迹大数据来分析其贸易格局...     

中国天然气流动体系及其动态变化特征

采用首位律、位序-规模分布律和马尔科夫转换矩阵等方法,解析了中国天然气资源流动系统的规模分布、规模结构和系统内部动态变化特征,得出以下结论：（1） 中国天然气流动系统呈逐步发育态势,在流动省份数量和规模上都有显著增加和扩大;（2） 中国天然气流动系统的位序-规模分布符合齐夫法则,具有分形性质。在输流系统规模分布方面,呈现出首位型分布模式向分散均衡型模式转变,再向首位型分布模式发展的趋势。在汇流系统规模分布方面,总体表现为集中型分布模式,中间位次省份天然气流动规模比较发育;（3） 输流系统规模体系中,无流区、低流动规模地区发展不活跃,中低流动规模以上地区很难实现跨越式发展。汇流系统规模体系则表现出向中等规模集中的发展趋势。整体来看,中国天然气流动规模扩大的同时,不同类型之间的变动相对较为平稳。基于以上研究,提出加强天然气资源勘探,拓宽天然气生产和进口来源;加强中国天然气主干管网建设;逐步建设完善沿海LNG接收站与输送管网的政策建议。     

中国西部天然气资源和勘探开发前景

前言在行政划分上,西部地区指西北地区和西南地区,包括陕西、甘肃、内蒙、宁夏、青海、新疆、西藏、四川。在地质上,广义的西部地区指包括鄂尔多斯盆地和四川盆地在内的以西领域。为了与“西部大开发”所指的地区和领域相匹配,本文在研究天然气资源分布状况的西部地区指广义上的西部地区,包括天然气地质研究中的中部区和西部区。近年来,在西部地区相继发现了一系列大中型气田,特别是以克拉2号为代表的世界级大型气田的发现促使了“西气东输”工程的启动。该项工程的实施意义重大,不但对我国东部地区经济建设提供洁净能源、改善能源消耗结构、保护环境,而且对开发西部丰富的天然气资源,变资源优势为经济优势具有十分重要的意义。     

“青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程”工艺技术与安全生产分析（续完）

青海盐湖资源丰富,从单一钾肥产品向石油天然气与盐湖化工结合的下游产品发展,生产氢氧化钾、碳酸钾、乙炔、氯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、合成氨和尿素,实现循环经济和综合利用,"青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程",势在必行。运用安全系统工程的方法,分析了所采用的工艺技术以及生产设施设备在项目投产运行后存在的主要危险、有害因素及其产生的危险、危害后果;提出了消除、预防或减弱危险性、危害程度的对策措施,以实现项目的本质安全和安全生产。     

“青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程”工艺技术与安全生产分析

青海盐湖资源丰富,从单一钾肥产品向石油天然气与盐湖化工结合的下游产品发展,生产氢氧化钾、碳酸钾、乙炔、氯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、合成氨和尿素,实现循环经济和综合利用,"青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程",势在必行。运用安全系统工程的方法,分析了所采用的工艺技术以及生产设施设备在项目投产运行后存在的主要危险、有害因素及其产生的危险、危害后果;提出了消除、预防或减弱危险性、危害程度的对策措施,以实现项目的本质安全和安全生产。     

河南省资源环境数据库系统设计

河南省资源环境数据库建设是国家空间数据基础设施(NSDI)在河南省的具体实现,属于省级空间数据基础设施的一部分,也是以3S技术为基础的资源环境数据的生产和成果存档、管理、分发服务系统在信息时代的具体表现形式。对国内各省份资源环境数据库建设现状进行研究,提出河南省建立资源环境数据库的必要性及意义。采用地理空间数据库建库技术,对河南省资源环境数据库架构、数据库标准、数据库结构及数据库功能进行了详细的设计和论述,并对数据库的应用前景进行了分析,为资源环境数据库建设及其应用提供了技术上的支持。     

“青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程”工艺技术与安全生产分析（续一）

青海盐湖资源丰富,从单一钾肥产品向石油天然气与盐湖化工结合的下游产品发展,生产氢氧化钾、碳酸钾、乙炔、氯乙烯、聚氯乙烯、合成氨和尿素,实现循环经济和综合利用,"青海100万吨钾肥综合利用工程",势在必行。运用安全系统工程的方法,分析了所采用的工艺技术以及生产设施设备在项目投产运行后存在的主要危险、有害因素及其产生的危险、危害后果;提出了消除、预防或减弱危险性、危害程度的对策措施,以实现项目的本质安全和安全生产。     

“海洋六号”船南海科考再起航

<正>2月28日,"海洋六号"船出航执行今年的海洋地质调查航次任务。这是中国地质调查局所属的广海局开春后执行的第一项海上科考任务,标志着今年海洋地质调查工作全面启动。按照海洋地质调查计划安排,2015年,广海局主持实施海域油气资源调查工程和天然气水合物资源勘查工程,并参与海洋基础地质调查工程、海岸带综合地质调查与监测工程、天然气水合物资源试采工程、海洋地质数据库与信息化服务体系建设工程及联合勘探工程等7项任务,以及中国大洋科考航次任务1项,总计34个项目任务。该局计划安排"海洋六号"、"海洋四     

内蒙古东部地区富有机质泥页岩发育特征与页岩气资源潜力初探

页岩气是以吸附和游离相赋存于泥页岩或泥页岩层系中的天然气,是一种重要的非常规天然气资源类型.通过对以往地质资料进行综合研究,认为内蒙古东部地区海拉尔、二连两个盆地下白垩统大磨拐河组、南屯组地层暗色泥页岩发育广泛,其暗色页岩层单层厚度、埋深、总有机碳含量(TOC)和热演化程度(Ro)等特征,具备页岩气形成的基本地质条件,具有一定的页岩气资源潜力.     

中国海洋油气资源开发与国家石油安全战略对策

石油是中国能源安全的核心问题,随着我国石油供应对外依赖程度的增大,石油安全问题越来越突出,将会成为我国21世纪经济、社会可持续发展面临的一个重要问题。我国是海洋油气资源丰富的国家,广阔的海域中分布着近100×10⁴km²的含油沉积盆地,近海石油资源量为240×10⁸t,天然气资源量为140×10¹²m³。海洋油气资源的开发利用,将能部分解决我国油气资源进口数量。本文讨论了解决石油安全的四种模式,对我国油气安全的国际和国内条件进行了分析,提出了解决我国油气安全的战略对策。     

Long-term implications of new U.S. gas estimates

The US Geological Survey’s 1995 estimates of domestic undiscovered plus undeveloped natural gas nearly tripled quantities estimated in its 1989 Assessment. Much of the increase came from selected unconventional resources assessed using the paradigm of continuous-type accumulations. These include such seemingly unrelated “unconventional” gas occurrences as “tight gas,” coalbed gas, gas in shales, and deep basin-center gas. Though only a small fraction of the assessed 352 trillion cubic feet is now economic, the quantity is nevertheless significant. Moreover, the lowest cost resources are close to major gas markets where competing conventional gas is modest. With continued technological improvements these resources can contribute significantly to future U.S. gas supply, even without subsidies     

North American Natural Gas: Data Show Supply Problems

Natural gas is increasingly the fuel of choice for domestic and industrial use and for electric power generation. With pipelines in all 50 states, gas now fuels more than one-half of United States homes. Demand for all uses is projected to rise. United States production peaked in 1971, and is in decline. The United States in 2002 imported 15% of its gas from Canada, which amount was 56% of Canada's production. However, Canada's production now also is in decline. Mexico's production declined from 1999 to 2002 against rising demand. Mexico is increasingly a net gas importer from the United States. In both the United States and Canada, intensive drilling is being offset by high depletion rates. Frontiers for more production include deep basin drilling, improved exploration and reservoir development technology, increased coalbed methane exploitation, and access to lands not now accessible because of environmental and other restrictions. Stranded gas in Arctic regions of the United States and Canada offer some potential for additional supplies, but pipeline access is at least five years to ten years or more away. Additional LNG landing facilities are needed, and are planned, but these are several years away in significant numbers. For the immediate future, rationing of available gas by the market mechanism of higher prices seems the only option. In the longer term, it seems North America will be increasingly dependent on LNG.     

Wellsite,Laboratory, and Mathematical Techniques for Determining Sorbed Gas Content of Coals and Gas Shales Utilizing Well Cuttings

Drill cuttings can be used for desorption analyses but with more uncertainty than desorption analyses done with cores. Drill cuttings are not recommended to take the place of core, but in some circumstances, desorption work with cuttings can provide a timely and economic supplement to that of cores. The mixed lithologic nature of drill cuttings is primarily the source of uncertainty in their analysis for gas content, for it is unclear how to apportion the gas generated from both the coal and the dark-colored shale that is mixed in usually with the coal. In the Western Interior Basin Coal Basin in eastern Kansas (Pennsylvanian-age coals), dark-colored shales with normal (∼100 API units) gamma-ray levels seem to give off minimal amounts of gas on the order of less than five standard cubic feet per ton (scf/ton). In some cuttings analyses this rule of thumb for gas content of the shale is adequate for inferring the gas content of coals, but shales with high-gamma-ray values (>150 API units) may yield several times this amount of gas. The uncertainty in desorption analysis of drill cuttings can be depicted graphically on a diagram identified as a “lithologic component sensitivity analysis diagram.” Comparison of cuttings desorption results from nearby wells on this diagram, can sometimes yield an unique solution for the gas content of both a dark shale and coal mixed in a cuttings sample. A mathematical solution, based on equating the dry, ash-free gas-contents of the admixed coal and dark-colored shale, also yields results that are correlative to data from nearby cores.     

Worldwide Estimates of Deep Natural Gas Resources Based on the U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000

The U.S. Geological Survey recently assessed undiscovered conventional gas and oil resources in eight regions of the world outside the U.S. The resources assessed were those estimated to have the potential to be added to reserves within the next thirty years. This study is a worldwide analysis of the estimated volumes and distribution of deep (>4.5 km or about 15,000 ft), undiscovered conventional natural gas resources based on this assessment. Two hundred forty-six assessment units in 128 priority geologic provinces, 96 countries, and two jointly held areas were assessed using a probabilistic Total Petroleum System approach. Priority geologic provinces were selected from a ranking of 937 provinces worldwide. The U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment Team did not assess undiscovered petroleum resources in the U.S. For this report, mean estimated volumes of deep conventional undiscovered gas resources in the U.S. are taken from estimates of 101 deep plays (out of a total of 550 conventional plays in the U.S.) from the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources. A probabilistic method was designed to subdivide gas resources into depth slices using a median-based triangular probability distribution as a model for drilling depth to estimate the percentages of estimated gas resources below various depths. For both the World Petroleum Assessment 2000 and the 1995 National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources, minimum, median, and maximum depths were assigned to each assessment unit and play; these depths were used in our analysis. Two-hundred seventy-four deep assessment units and plays in 124 petroleum provinces were identified for the U.S. and the world. These assessment units and plays contain a mean undiscovered conventional gas resource of 844 trillion cubic ft (Tcf) occuring at depths below 4.5 km. The deep undiscovered conventional gas resource (844 Tcf) is about 17% of the total world gas resource (4,928 Tcf) based on the provinces assessed and includes a mean estimate of 259 Tcf of U.S. gas from the U.S. 1995 National Assessment. Of the eight regions, the Former Soviet Union (Region 1) contains the largest estimated volume of undiscovered deep gas with a mean resource of343 Tcf.     

Assessment Methodology and Results From the Canadian Gas Potential Committee 2001 Report

Since 1991 volunteers from the Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) have conducted assessments of undiscovered gas potential in Canada. Reports were published in 1997 and 2001. The 2001 CGPC report assessed all established and some conceptual exploration plays in Canada and incorporated data from about 29,000 discovered gas pools and gas fields. Mainly year-end 1998 data were used in the analysis of 107 established exploration plays. The CGPC assessed gas in place without using economic cut offs. Estimates of nominal marketable gas were made, based on the ratio between gas in place and marketable gas in discovered pools. Only part of the estimated nominal marketable gas actually will be available, primarily because of restrictions on access to exploration and the small size of many accumulations. Most plays were assessed using the Petrimes program where it could be applied. Arps-Roberts assessments were made on plays where too many discovered pools were present to use the Petrimes program. Arps-Roberts assessments were corrected for economic truncation of the discovered pool sample. Several methods for making such corrections were tried and examples of the results are shown and compared with results from Petrimes. In addition to assessments of established plays, 12 conceptual plays, where no discoveries have been made, were assessed using Petrimes subjective methodology. An additional 65 conceptual plays were recognized, discussed, and ranked without making a quantitative assessment. No nominal marketable gas was attributed to conceptual plays because of the high risk of failure in such plays. Nonconventional gas in the form of coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas, and shale gas are discussed, but no nominal marketable gas is attributed to those sources pending successful completion of pilot study projects designed to demonstrate commercially viable production. Conventional gas resources in Canada include 340 Tcf of gas in place in discovered pools and fields and 252 Tcf of undiscovered gas in place. Remaining nominal marketable gas includes 96 Tcf in discovered pools and fields and 138 Tcf of undiscovered nominal marketable gas. The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin holds 61% of the remaining nominal marketable gas. Future discoveries from that area will be mainly in pools smaller than 2.5 Bcf of marketable gas and increasing levels of exploratory drilling will be required to harvest this undiscovered resource. A pragmatic, geologically focussed approach to the assessment of undiscovered gas potential by the CGPC provides a sound basis for future exploration and development planning. Peer reviewed assessment on a play-by-play basis for entire basins provides both detailed play information and the ability to evaluate new exploration results and their impact on overall potential.     

An analytical approximation of the distribution of total hydrocarbon discoveries as a function of discovery number

Recently, Manly's method has been successfully applied to hydrocarbon exploration modeling in order to approximate the expected value and the standard deviation of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered. This method is much faster than running prolonged simulations normally required by the probabilistic model of the hydrocarbon discovery process, and the results are very accurate. This paper extends the usefulness of the approximation method by developing an approximate analytical model of the whole probability distribution of the total volume of hydrocarbons discovered. The mean and the standard deviation from Manly's approximation are used to help set the parameters of a family of beta distributions, to represent the distributions of the total amount of hydrocarbons discovered from the beginning to the end of the exploration process in an area. Three real datasets—the Nova Scotian Shelf from offshore northeastern Canada, the Bistcho Play, and the Zama Play from northwestern Canada—are chosen to verify the methodology developed. Confidence intervals of the forecast for each number of discovered fields are constructed from the analytical approximation and compared with confidence intervals generated by the simulation. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show that the idea of using a family of beta distributions is a robust approximation.     

A probabilistic model of petroleum discovery

We discuss a petroleum discovery model that greatly simplifies the approach initiated by Barouch and Kaufman (1976) in which exploration is viewed as a sampling without replacement process, and the probability of discovery of a pool is proportional to its size. Calculations that formerly required lengthy Monte Carlo simulations have been reduced to compact formulas.