Temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Alborz and Zagros regions of Iran, using a multifractal approach

Multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions of Iran were analyzed using the fixed-mass method. The generalized multifractal dimensions, singularity spectrum, mass exponents, and the asymmetry factor were calculated for these regions. The results indicate that the temporal distributions of earthquakes in the Zagros and Alborz regions are likely to be chaotic and have multifractal structures. Although both of the study areas show heterogeneous structures, the D_q and f(α_q) spectra for the Zagros region indicate that densely populated time domains are as heterogeneous as the sparsely populated ones. On the other hand, the multifractal spectra of the Alborz region show that the densely clustered time domains are more heterogeneous than the sparsely populated ones. Such a multifractal spectrum shows that there are many more sparsely populated time domains (i.e. seismic gaps) within the multifractal structure than densely populated ones.     

Estimation of earthquake parameters in the Alborz seismic zone,Iran using generalized inversion method

Generalized inversion of the S-wave amplitude spectra from the strong-motion network data in the Alborz, Iran has been used to estimate simultaneously source parameters, site response and S-wave attenuation (Qs). To obtain an optimum inverse solution, and also for decreasing the uncertainty level, a frequency-dependent site amplification as a constraint, was imposed to five reference site responses. This constraint removes the undetermined degree of freedom in the inversion. Furthermore, for removing the trade-off between geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation, a geometrical spreading factor was adopted from the Motazedian [20] study. A point source model has been calibrated against the resulting source terms and consequently source parameters, like corner frequency, moment magnitude and high frequency fall off coefficient, for each event has been determined separately. Also, based on the available data and their connectivity two sub-regions including western and eastern parts of Alborz located east and west of 52.5°E have been considered to see that if there is any possible systematic difference in their seismic source characteristics. The average stress drops obtained are about 182 and 116 bars, respectively for eastern and western Alborz. Another result of the study is the site responses, which have been determined for all of 81 stations individually. Though soil nonlinearity was detected at the Ab-bar station (experienced strong ground shaking, i.e., PGA>0.5 g) near to the epicenter of Manjil M7.4 earthquake of June 20, 1990, but an analysis of residuals showed generally a weak influence of soil nonlinearity (i.e., dependence of amplification on shaking level); probably because of the relatively weak levels of acceleration in our database. Finally, the shear wave quality factor (i.e., Qs) has been determined as a function of frequency represented by a linear equation in logarithmic scale. To evaluate the outcomes of the current study, the results have been compared with similar studies wherever it was available. The results of the current study are of utmost importance for seismic hazard assessment of the metropolitan area of Tehran, where 15 million people live, one-fifth of the population of Iran.     

Crustal velocity structure in the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran)

Inversion of local earthquake travel times and joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity measurements were used to derive a simple model for the velocity crustal structure beneath the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran), including the seismically active area around the megacity of Tehran. The P and S travel times from 115 well-located earthquakes recorded by a dense local seismic network, operated from June to November 2006, were inverted to determine a 1D velocity model of the upper crust. The limited range of earthquake depths (between 2 km and 26 km) prevents us determining any velocity interfaces deeper than 25 km. The velocity of the lower crust and the depth of the Moho were found by joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity data. The resulting P-wave velocity model comprises an upper crust with 3 km and 4 km thick sedimentary layers with P wave velocities (V_p) of ～5.4 and ～5.8 km s^?1, respectively, above 9 km and 8 km thick layers of upper crystalline crust (V_p ～6.1 and ～6.25 km s^?1 respectively). The lower crystalline crust is ～34 km thick (V_p ～ 6.40 km s^?1). The total crustal thickness beneath this part of the Central Alborz is 58 ± 2 km.     

Earthquake relocation in the Central Alborz region of Iran using a non-linear probabilistic method

In this study, we calculate accurate absolute locations for nearly 3,000 shallow earthquakes (≤20 km depth) that occurred from 1996 to 2010 in the Central Alborz region of northern Iran using a non-linear probabilistic relocation algorithm on a local scale. We aim to produce a consistent dataset with a realistic assessment of location errors using probabilistic hypocenter probability density functions. Our results indicate significant improvement in hypocenter locations and far less scattering than in the routine earthquake catalog. According to our results, 816 earthquakes have horizontal uncertainties in the 0.5–3.0 km range, and 981 earthquakes are relocated with focal-depth errors less than 3.0 km, even with a suboptimal network geometry. Earthquake relocated are tightly clustered in the eastern Tehran region and are mainly associated with active faults in the study area (the Mosha and Garmsar faults). Strong historical earthquakes have occurred along the Mosha and Garmsar faults, and the relocated earthquakes along these faults show clear north-dipping structures and align along east–west lineations, consistent with the predominant trend of faults within the study region. After event relocation, all seismicity lies in the upper 20 km of the crust, and no deep seismicity (>20 km depth) has been observed. In many circumstances, the seismicity at depth does not correlate with surface faulting, suggesting that the faulting at depth does not directly offset overlying sediments.     

Body wave attenuation characteristics in the crust of Alborz region and North Central Iran

Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M _L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q _P) and S waves (Q _S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q _P and Q _S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q _P and Q _S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q _P and Q _S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q _P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f ^{(1.03 ± 0.07)} and (48 ± 5)f ^{(0.95 ± 0.07)} in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q _S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f ^{(0.99 ± 0.07)} and (68 ± 5)f ^{(0.96 ± 0.05)}, respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.     

Segmented seismicity of the M w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake sequence (Alborz Mountains, Iran) revealed from regional moment tensors

The M _w 6.2 Baladeh earthquake occurred on 28 May 2004 in the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. This earthquake was the first strong shock in this intracontinental orogen for which digital regional broadband data are available. The Baladeh event provides a rare opportunity to study fault geometry and ongoing deformation processes using modern seismological methods. A joint inversion for hypocentres and a velocity model plus a surface-wave group dispersion curve analysis were used to obtain an adapted velocity model, customised for mid- and long-period waveform modelling. Based on the new velocity model, regional waveform data of the mainshock and larger aftershocks (M _w ?≥3.3) were inverted for moment tensors. For the Baladeh mainshock, this included inversion for kinematic parameters. All analysed earthquakes show dominant thrust mechanisms at depths between 14 and 26 km, with NW–SE striking fault planes. The mainshock ruptured a 28° south-dipping area of 24 × 21 km along a north-easterly direction. The rupture plane of the mainshock does not coincide with the aftershock distribution, neither in map view nor with respect to depth. The considered aftershocks form two main clusters. The eastern cluster is associated with the mainshock. The western cluster does not appear to be connected with the rupture plane of the mainshock but, instead, indicates a second activated fault plane dipping at 85° towards the north.     

New magnitude scaling relations for earthquake early warning in the Alborz region,Iran

Rapid magnitude estimation relations for earthquake early warning systems in the Alborz region have been developed based on the initial first seconds of the P-wave arrival. For this purpose, a total of 717 accelerograms recorded by the Building and Housing Research Center in the Alborz region with the magnitude (M_w) range of 4.8–6.5 in the period between 1995 and 2013 were employed. Average ground motion period (\( \tau_{\text{c}} \)) and peak displacement (\( P_{\text{d}} \)) in different time windows from the P-wave arrival were calculated, and their relation with magnitude was examined. Four earthquakes that were excluded from the analysis process were used to validate the results, and the estimated magnitudes were found to be in good agreement with the observed ones. The results show that using the proposed relations for the Alborz region, earthquake magnitude could be estimated with acceptable accuracy even after 1 s of the P-wave arrival.     

Correlation between the seismicity parameters

Though the forecast and prediction of earthquakes is a commonly accepted difficult problem in science, the step towards the exploration and knowledge of the generation and occurrence of earthquakes has never stopped. It has strong scientific exploration nature and great social efficacy in disaster reduction. For this reason, it has always been the object and motivation pursued assiduously by earthquake researchers. It is beyond doubt that the study of seismicity is still one of the important information sources that have historical records of the longest time and most abundant earthquake cases that can be testified. For many years, with the progress of study in this aspect and the unceasing increase of study methods, there have been not less than tens of methods that can be used to describe theseismicity characteristics from different angles. It is of great importance to determine from the numerous methods those ones that are relatively independent and to understand how many dimensions are there to restrict the complexsystem of earthquake generation and occurrence. Taking these as a referential basis, we would be able to identify the quantities that restrict the study of the seismogenic system, to raise the scientific value and rigorousness of prediction and forecast, and to get rid of the trouble of repeated information superposition.     

Shallow/upper crustal shear wave structure of the Tehran region (Central Alborz,Iran) from the inversion of Rayleigh wave dispersion measurements

Surface wave dispersion curves from microearthquakes are used to obtain group velocity dispersion maps. The calculation of the local dispersion curves for each grid point from these maps then produces the input data to retrieve the 3D shear wave velocity model of the Tehran region. The group velocity maps indicate that the tomographic results agree well with the three main tectonic features and the geological units in the study area. The tomographic maps generally possess high-velocity structures across most of the mountain belts (Central Alborz and east-southeast mountains), whereas the Tehran Basin correlates to a low-velocity structure. Increasing the period in the study area highlights four independent low-velocity zones that reflect faults and fault junction systems. The shear wave velocity profiles indicate that the depth to bedrock exhibits southward variation ranging from ~?300 m to ~?1500 m. We also focus our analysis on the existence of faults within the shear wave profiles and discuss the low shear wave velocity anomalies deeper than 2 km result from the main fault structures (e.g., North Tehran, North-South Rey and Parchin). Furthermore, we argue that the dip angle of the North Tehran fault varies along fault strike, whereas the North-South Rey fault possesses a constant dip angle. Moreover, initial model uncertainties and checkerboard resolution tests are used to identify reliable and robust anomaly features in the 3D shear wave velocity model and 2D tomographic maps, respectively. Microearthquake analysis provides an effective approach for studying the upper crustal structure heterogeneity, especially the fault structure, of the Tehran region.     

Pattern recognition of major asperities using local recurrence time in Alborz Mountains, Northern Iran

In this study, seismic data recorded during the period 01/01/1996 to 09/01/2009 has been used to evaluate the seismic hazard potential along the Alborz region, Northern Iran. The technique of mapping local recurrence time, T _L, is used to map major asperities, which are considered as the areas with maximum hazard. We calculated T _L from a and b values which are in turn derived from the frequency–magnitude relation constants within a radius of 30 km about every corner point of a 10-km spacing grid. Since b value is inversely related to applied stress, the areas with lowest b values and/or shortest T _L are interpreted to locate the asperities or the areas of maximum seismic hazard. To test this method, we computed T _L map using seismic catalogues before and after the 2004 Baladeh earthquake of M _w 6.2. The local recurrence time map before the earthquake shows anomalously short T _L in the epicentral region of the Baladeh earthquake a decade before its occurrence. The T _L map after the earthquake indicates that this large event has redistributed the applied stress in the Alborz region. The microseismicity of the region after the Baladeh earthquake, however, suggests that there are two anomalies in T _L map positioned in Alborz. The places where these anomalies are observed can be considered as the areas with maximum seismic hazard for future large earthquake in the Alborz region.     

Middle Jurassic palynomorphs of the Dalichai Formation, central Alborz Ranges, northeastern Iran: Paleoecological inferences

Palynological data are used to draw paleoecological inferences for the Dalichai Formation,northeast of Semnan,northeastern Iran.All samples examined yield well-preserved,diverse palynofloras consisting predominantly of miospores;dinoflagellate cysts,foraminiferal test linings,and fungal spores occur as minor constituents.Fifty-four species of spores(37 genera),18species of pollen(9 genera),and 16 species of dinoflagellate cysts(13 genera)are recognized.Co-occurrence of such miospore species with known vertical ranges as Klukisporites variegatus,Sellaspora asperata,Murospora florida,and Concavissimisporites verrucosus suggests a Middle Jurassic(Bajocian-Callovian)age for the host strata,thus corroborating the available paleozoological evidence.Such spore species as Klukisporites,Cyathidites,and Dictyophyllidites known to have been produced by Pterophyta dominate the palynofloras.Thus the contemporaneous coastal vegetation was characterized by predominance of Pterophyta whereas representatives of Ginkgophyta,Pteridospermophyta,Lycophyta,Coniferophyta,and Bryophyta were rarely represented.This reconstruction implies that a moist,warm climate prevailed in northeastern Iran during the Middle Jurassic(Bajocian-Callovian).This is confirmed by occurrence of fungal spores accompanied by such warm water dinoflagellate cysts as Mendicodinium groenlandicum,Pareodinia ceratophora,and Gonyaulacysta jurassica.Abundance of Amorphous Organic Matter(AOM)signifies a shallow,low-energy,dysoxic-anoxic depositional site for the host strata.Furthermore,the ratio of AOM to marine palynomorphs as well as abundance of blade-shaped to eqiudimensional opaque palynomacerals could indicate low sedimentation rate in a shallow,low-oxygenated marine environment.Additionally,occurrence of chorate dinoflagellate cysts(e.g.,Adnatosphaeridium caulleryi)and acritarchs bearing relatively long processes(e.g.,Micrhystridium)possibly suggests deepening upward in the study section.     

The present-day seismicity variations in the Kuril-Kamchatka seismic zone

This study is concerned with seismicity variations in Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands for the period 1962–2009; the effects of large earthquakes on the seismicity of adjacent areas are taken into account. The 1997 Kronotskii earthquake was followed by seismicity decreases in most areas over Kamchatka, which is presumably related to decreased tectonic stresses. After the 2007 Simushir earthquake synchronization and periodicities in seismicity were identified, indicating increased instabilities and the likelihood of a large event in Kamchatka in the near future. The instability of seismic regions is discussed within the framework of the theory of nonequilibrium dynamical systems. We suggest successive phases in the occurrence of seismological precursors.     

An investigation of seismicity for the Central Anatolia region,Turkey

The aim of this study is to investigate the seismicity of Central Anatolia, within the area restricted to coordinates 30–35° longitude and 38–41° latitude, by determining the “a” and “b” parameters in a Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship using data from earthquakes of moment magnitude (Mw)?≥?4.0 that occurred between 1900 and 2010. Based on these parameters and a Poisson model, we aim to predict the probability of other earthquakes of different magnitudes and return periods (recurrence intervals). To achieve this, the study area is divided into six seismogenic zones, using spatial distributions of earthquakes greater than Mw?≥?4.0 with active faults. For each seismogenic zone, the a and b parameters in the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency relationship were calculated by the least squares method. The probability of occurrence and return periods of various magnitude earthquakes were calculated from these statistics using the Poisson method.     

Mathematical basis, correlativity and selection of seismicity parameters

Using the analytic expression of seismicity parameters, the dependency and correlativity between the statistical parameters and seismic frequency or seismic intensity are discussed. The statistical parameters are divided into two kinds. One kind is the regional seismicity parameter, 17 parameters are analyzed in this paper. The other kind is the seismicity distribution parameter. They are the distribution parameters of time, space and magnitude. The existent base and rationality of distribution parameters depend on the application of distribution model. We analyze and draw an analogy between the natural probability, Poisson, Weibull distributions and multi-fractal analytic formula in time, space and magnitude. And some examples are given in this paper. The P value and H value of aftershock sequence attenuation, the U value and F value of earthquake swarm sequence and the entropy of information are discussed preliminarily. Another method about analyzing relationships among time-series curves are given. The resemblance relativity degree and the relativity degree of relative change slope can be used as the determining values. At last, some preliminary ideas about sifting and using for seismicity parameters are advanced in this paper.     

Stress studies in the Central Alborz by inversion of earthquake focal mechanism data

The Alborz is one of the most important seismotectonic provinces in Iran. Furthermore, emplacement of Tehran as a mega city in southern part of the Alborz intensifies the seismic vulnerability in this area. In this study, the focal mechanism data from teleseismic and local seismic networks are used for stress tensor inversion. The earthquake focal mechanisms in the Central Alborz are divided into several groups with respect to their location. Two different stress tensor inversions, linear and nonlinear, are used for obtaining the principal stress orientations. The results show spatial variations in tectonic stress field, consistent with fault orientations and faulting mechanisms. The maximum compressional stress directions obtained in this study are confirmed by fast S-wave polarization axes reported by a previous shear wave splitting study. The maximum horizontal stress directions are also compared with GPS strain rates. The results indicate a partitioning of deformation in the area due to regional stresses along preexisting faults.     

Reservoir-induced seismicity in Karun III dam (Southwestern Iran)

Statistical analyses of the Karun III reservoir seismicity reveal a remarkable correlation between seismicity rate and water-level harmonic changes. It seems that seismicity in this dam depends on rapid water-level changes. The three biggest earthquakes of Karun III, measuring 4, 4.1, and 4.3 on the Richter scale (ML), occurred after two stages of rapid filling of the dam on March 22, 2005 and May 12, 2006. These earthquakes happened when the water reached the maximum operational level. Since the beginning of filling the reservoir on November 8, 2004 until March, 2006, most reservoir-induced seismicity has been localized in three main clusters. The majority of the earthquakes occurred in the frontal anticline of Keyf Malek; the second and third clusters happened near Karun Blind Fault (KBF) and Mountain Front Fault (MFF), respectively. Filling Karun III reservoir immediately led to an increase in the occurrence of earthquakes. Further, following abrupt water-level changes, a considerable increase in the number of earthquakes is observed. Finally, in terms of seismicity rate, vertical and horizontal migration, magnitude, and distance, the earthquakes of Karun III behave differently.     

The depth of seismicity in the Kermanshah region of the Zagros Mountains (Iran)

A detailed microearthquake survey in a small region of the Zagros Mountains in Iran failed to detect any shocks whose depths were greater than 20 km. One third of the shocks in the same area have depths greater than 50 km when located using teleseismic observations. Because of poor azimuthal coverage and lack of local stations these teleseismic locations are probably in error. There is therefore no reliable seismic evidence for the existence of oceanic lithosphere beneath the Zagros fold belt.     

Spatio-temporal variations of seismicity in the southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gaps

The spatio-temporal variation of seismicity in the southern Peru and northern Chile seismic gaps is analyzed with teleseismic data (m _b 5.5) between 1965 and 1991, to investigate whether these gaps present the precursory combination of compressional outer-rise and tensional downdip events observed in other subduction zones. In the outer-rise and the inner-trench (0 to 100 km distance from the trench) region, lower magnitude (5.0m _b <5.5) events were also studied. The results obtained show that the gaps in southern Peru and northern Chile do not present compressional outer-rise events. However, both gaps show a continuous, tensional downdip seismicity. For both regions, the change from compressional to tensional regime along the slab occurs at a distance of about 160 km from the trench, apparently associated with the coupled-uncoupled transition of the interplate contact zone. In southern Peru, an increase of compressional seismicity near the interplate zone and of tensional events (5.0m _b 6.3) in the outer-rise and inner-trench regions is observed between 1987 and 1991. A similar distribution of seismicity in the outer-rise and inner-trench regions is observed with earthquakes (m _b <5.5). In northern Chile there is a relative absence of compressional activity (m _b 5.5) near the interplate contact since the sequence of December 21, 1967. After that, only a cluster of low-magnitude compressional events has been located in the area 50 to 100 km from the trench. The compressional activity occurring near the interplate zone in both seismic gaps represents that a seismic preslip is occurring in and near the plate contact. Therefore, if this seismic preslip is associated with the maturity of the gap, the fact that it is larger in southern Peru than in northern Chile may reflect that the former gap is more mature than the latter. However, the more intense downdip tensional activity and the absence of compressional seismicity near the contact zone observed in northern Chile, may also be interpreted as evidence that northern Chile is seismically more mature than southern Peru. Therefore, the observed differences in the distribution of stresses and seismicity analyzed under simple models of stress accumulation and transfer in coupled subduction zones are not sufficient to assess the degree of maturity of a seismic gap.