梅雨锋气旋暴雨的 Q 矢量分析：个例研究

文中对修改的Q矢量(Q*)进行转化、处理后,所得Q矢量(记为QN矢量)与准地转Q矢量具有类似的计算表达式,但其完全用实际风场资料进行计算.结合1991年7月5日20:00-6日20:00 BST的一次典型江淮梅雨锋气旋暴雨过程比较分析表明,QN矢量诊断能力较准地转Q矢量优越,且700 hPa QN矢量散度辐合场对同时期地面降水场的水平分布特征具有较好指示作用.将QN矢量沿以等高线为参照线的自然坐标系进行分解(简称为PG分解),所得各项QNalst矢量(沿流伸展项)、QNcurv矢量(曲率项)、QNshdv矢量(切变平流项)及QNcrst矢量(穿流伸展项)具有明确物理意义.对1991年7月5日20:00-6日20:00 BST此次江淮梅雨锋气旋暴雨过程进行QN矢量PG分解研究表明,QN矢量PG分解可以揭示出天气现象过程中"总"的QN矢量(即QN矢量)难以揭示的潜在物理机制.具体地讲,在梅雨锋气旋不同阶段,QNalst矢量散度场的水平分布特征都与总QN矢量散度场相似,其散度辐合场在总QN矢量散度辐合场中都占有较大比例,对总QN矢量散度对垂直运动产生的激发与强迫作用贡献大,对梅雨锋气旋引发降水的发生始终都起着主要的促进强迫作用.QNcurv矢量在整个梅雨锋气旋暴雨演变过程中,对降水发生的促进作用逐渐减小,直至起到抑制作用.QNshdv矢量对降水发生的促进作用则随着梅雨锋气旋发生发展而明显增强,但随着梅雨锋气旋的东移衰亡,其对降水发生的促进作用迅速减弱,直至对降水的发生基本无影响.对于QNcrst矢量来讲,其在梅雨锋气旋的发生发展及强盛阶段对降水的发生基本不起作用,但在梅雨锋气旋衰亡阶段其对降水发生起着主要促进作用.另外,在梅雨锋气旋发生发展及强盛时期,QNalst矢量与QNcurv矢量、QNshdv矢量与QNcrst矢量的散度水平分布特征相似,只不过强度上存在差异,但无明显相互抵消现象,而在梅雨锋气旋衰亡阶段就不同了,QNalst矢量与QNcurv矢量、QNshdv矢量与QNcrst矢量的散度水平分布特征基本相反,且存在明显的相互抵消现象.可见,通过QN矢量PG分解可以揭示出梅雨锋气旋不同阶段降水的强迫因子是不同的.     

A case study of excessive rainfall forecasting

Summary Flash floods have been recognized as one of the most significant natural disaster problems in the world. Within the United States, the annual average flood death toll exceeds one hundred and property damage is on the order of a billion dollars. There has been an increased effort of the meteorological community to improve short term quantitative precipitation forecasting, principally by improving mesoscale numerical weather prediction for heavy rain events. Nevertheless, to date, numerical weather prediction has had rather limited impact on the prediction of the most damaging convective rainstorms.This study examines numerical experiments, including both coarse-mesh and fine-mesh model simulations, of the Enid, Oklahoma flood of 10–11 October 1973. Besides the great concentration of rainfall, the Enid flood was rather unique in comparison with other flash flood cases in that it was part of a much larger area of heavy rainfall which soaked the central Plains over the 24h period ending at 1200 UTC 11 October. The objective is to assess the overall usefulness and limitation of numerical weather prediction models in quantitative precipitation forecasting for this flash flood event.The model experiments reveal that the broad-scale precipitation patterns associated with the front and cyclone are well predicted, but the maximum rainfall amounts around Enid are underpredicted. The fine-mesh model is superior to the coarse-mesh model because of the former's ability to generate many significant mesoscale features in the vicinity of the front. In the fine-mesh model, many convection-related parameters (e.g., moisture flux convergence) are correlated very well temporally and spatially with the observed heavy precipitation scenario.     

Spatio-temporal trend analysis of rainfall using parametric and non-parametric tests: case study in Uttarakhand,India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of trends and magnitude of rainfall on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales of 13 districts of...     

潍坊市强降水洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究

利用潍坊各区县2008—2017年的气象观测资料、地理空间数据和社会经济数据,基于GIS技术和自然灾害风险指数模型,考虑短时强降雨对潍坊市城市内涝造成的影响,对潍坊市强降雨洪涝风险的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力多个因子定量分析,构建了潍坊市强降雨洪涝灾害风险评价模型,并编制了潍坊市强降雨洪涝灾害风险区划。结果表明：灾害发生的高风险区主要位于高密、诸城等地区,潍坊北部地区孕灾环境敏感性指数较大,市中心区域则因人口、经济地位显著而易损性风险较大。该风险区划结果基本反映了潍坊市强降雨洪涝灾害的潜在风险,为潍坊市的洪涝灾害防灾减灾提供技术支持和决策依据。     

Combination of Meteosat- and synoptic data to determine rainfall: A case study

Summary A pilot study was carried out to determine the capability of satellite data for mapping rainfall and to prove possibilities for combination with synoptic parameters. The investigations were based on digital infrared Meteosat data of the central and southern European region during two periods in 1979. The effective infrared emission temperatures were combined with parameters derived from synoptic maps. The rainfall distribution was extracted from synoptic surface data. The vorticity and its advection with the thermal wind were derived from the 850 hPa and 500 hPa topographies. For the investigated periods appreciable agreement was observed between the rainfall areas and the areas with positive advection of vorticity. Another requirement for the occurrence of precipitation is a relative minimum of cloud top temperature and vorticity. As supplement to synoptic charts satellite data are able to provide information on rainfall areas with high areal and temporal resolution.With 6 Figures     

WRF模式对江苏一次强降水过程的模拟分析

利用NCEP最终分析资料,使用WRF模式模拟了2008年7月22—23日出现在江苏的一次强降水天气过程。结果表明：WRF模式能较好地模拟出这次降水的区域,对这种中尺度天气系统具有良好的预报能力。在这次降水过程中,低空风场切变线和冷空气以及与高空急流的合理配置加强了强降水区垂直环流的发展,使降水区对流发展;而高空辐散、低空辐合的流场特征也促进了强降水的产生;这次过程的水汽输送在850hPa上最强,850hPa的强水汽输送是产生强降水必需的水汽条件;从能量方面看,江苏全境都处于K指数高值区,特别是江苏中北部有相当高的能量聚集,为强降水提供了不稳定条件。暴雨区上空螺旋度呈低层正中心、高层负值区的分布,螺旋度的高低层耦合是触发并维持低压暴雨的动力机制。     

一种短历时降雨综合评估方法在广州市的应用

基于广州市5个国家气象站1981-2015年逐小时降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对广州市气象站不同历时降雨年际变化特征进行分析,应用百分位法建立了一种基于降雨极值和降雨持续时间的短历时降雨综合等级评估方法,并使用此方法对2007-2011年广州市21次降雨过程进行综合评估,同时对灾损因子和短历时降雨因子进行相关性分析。结果表明,广州市短历时强降雨发生频次和极值均呈现上升趋势,其中1h强降雨频次上升趋势最为显著;综合等级评估方法对短历时降雨灾情具有一定的指示作用;短历时降雨持续时间和6h降雨极值与部分灾损因子相关系数较高。     

A case analysis of heavy rainfall causing flash floods

Summary The whole area of Mount Medvednica and the surrounding lowland including the Zagreb city area experienced extensive rainfall on 3 to 4 July 1989 causing flash floods. Daily precipitation amounts measured at 0600 UTC on 4 July were in proportion to the mean monthly totals of July for this region. The maximum rainfall amounts for periods of 2 to 12 hours recorded during this storm, had a return period greater than one hundred years in this region. They were produced by intensive development of a mesoscale convective system along the slowly moving frontal zone lying over north-western Croatia. The interaction between mesoscale processes and the synoptic scale development led to the intensive transformation of the initial air masses at the frontal line into those with a much stronger convective potential.With 5 Figures     

Heavy rainfall caused by interactions between monsoon depression and middle-latitude systems in Australia: a case study

The heavy rainfall caused by interactions between the monsoon depression and the middle-latitude systems in Australia has been investigated in this paper. For a better understanding of the Australian monsoon depression (AMD) and its synoptic-scale interaction with the middle-latitude systems, some key meteorological parameters have been calculated, including the vorticity budget, moisture budget, temperature advection, frontogenesis function and potential vorticity. The results show that interaction between the lower and mid-latitude systems does exist leading to the merging of the extratropical low with frontal systems and the AMD, meanwhile both the low-level cold air from the mid-latitude and the warm moist air that was lifted by the front were very favorable for the formation and the intensification of heavy rainfall, which was quite different from the rainfall caused by the AMD alone. Second, the obvious temperature advection and gradient were detected, so the baroclinicity was favorable to the intensification of the front, as well as to the development of the upper-level jet. Next, isentropic analysis revealed that the south-west cold-flow sank and met the warm flow coming from the northern part of Australia, thereby forming the obvious baroclinic zone in the lower troposphere. A high-PV anomaly area located in the upper level of the troposphere, which overlaid the low-level frontogenesis zone, also existed. The upper-level PV maximum extended downwards forming a vertical PV column when the extratropical low intensified. Furthermore, the AMD is a warm-cored vortex located in middle and upper troposphere with a deep and thick moisture layer, and there were some differences in the vorticity and moisture budgets of the two different stages. Finally, based on the above-mentioned analysis, a conceptual model describing the interactions between the lower and middle-latitude systems in the southern hemisphere was proposed.     

海棠\

“海棠”台风(2005)再次登陆福建省前后24 h期间(2005年7月19日00时—20日00时(世界时,下同)),给位于台风路径右侧的福建省东北部及浙江省境内(记为R区)造成大范围暴雨,同时,位于台风路径左侧福建省中南部及广东省境内(记为L区)仅有小雨发生,台风路径左右两侧暴雨落区呈明显非对称分布。基于WRF模式模拟结果诊断分析了“海棠”台风(2005)暴雨及其非对称分布特征成因,结果表明：(1)中尺度天气系统对“海棠”台风暴雨的垂直运动场的强迫作用是主要的,大尺度天气系统所起的强迫作用基本处于次要位置。地形抬升对“海棠”台风暴雨形成一直起着稳定、持续的促进作用,地表摩擦作用主要在台风登陆以后与“海棠”台风暴雨形成密切相关。(2) Q矢量强迫产生的降水场、地形强迫产生的降水场均呈左右非对称分布特征,气象因子是“海棠”台风降水非对称特征形成的主要因素,它一方面直接导致降水非对称特征形成,同时还引发地形因子强迫发挥了重要的促进作用。(3)进一步界定诊断范围对比分析表明,对于R区来讲,存在强烈的上升运动,并将低层汇聚的充沛水汽向上层输送,导致R区强降水发生,而对于L区来讲,上述与降水发生密切相关条件均较R区弱,不利于强降水发生。最后,对未来台风降水成因研究工作进行了初步展望。

     

自动雨量与人工雨量的差值对比分析

应用青海省班玛县国家基本气象站2011年6月1日—9月30日的降水资料,进行自动站与人工观测降水量记录统计、对比分析,发现自动站观测雨量与人工观测雨量存在一些偏差。分析表明,导致误差产生的主要原因是仪器测量原理与观测方法不同、人为影响、观测时间不一致、降水强度等其他原因。     

江淮流域一种中间尺度暴雨系统的研究

通过一次江淮流域暴雨天气过程的分析,发现在对流层低层存在一种中间尺度扰动。它形成于对流层低层的冷锋锋区上,其流场的气旋性环流特征和结构在600—900米高度上最明显。它是产生江淮流域暴雨的主要天气系统之一。6小时雨量可达15—35毫米,一次扰动过程的总降水量约100—120毫米,水汽辐合主要集中在900米—700毫巴层。扰动的时间尺度为1—2天,计算结果表明,这类扰动的发生、发展与对流层低层锋区斜压性的位能释放有较好的关系。     

Effects of time-dependent large-scale forcing, solar zenith angle, and sea surface temperature on time-mean rainfall: a partitioning analysis based on surface rainfall budget

Effects of time-dependent large-scale forcing, solar zenith angle, and sea surface temperature on time-mean rainfall during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean?CAtmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) are examined through a partitioning analysis of a series of sensitivity cloud-resolving model experiment data based on surface rainfall budget. The model is forced by time-dependent large-scale forcing (LSF), solar zenith angle (SZA), and sea surface temperature (SST) in the control experiment and is forced only by either time-dependent LSF, SZA, or SST while others are replaced with their time averages in the sensitivity experiments. The rainfall associated with water vapor divergence and local atmospheric drying and hydrometeor loss/convergence has the largest contribution to total rainfall among eight rainfall types. The largest rainfall contribution is increased in the simulations where either time-dependent LSF, SZA, or SST is replaced with its average, whereas it is decreased in the simulation where COARE-derived large-scale vertical velocity is replaced with zero vertical velocity. The contribution of the rainfall associated with water vapor convergence to total rainfall is decreased in the simulations with time-mean LSF, SZA, and SST, whereas it is increased in the simulation without large-scale vertical velocity.     

Impact of land-use changes on the genesis and evolution of extreme rainfall event: a case study over Uttarakhand,India

In recent years, hot summers (HS) have played an important role in affecting people’s health and causing natural disasters. However, it is not very clear what HS should be attributed to. In order to investigate that, the anomalous of anticyclone associated with HS in the Mediterranean and North China is examined and compared by using data during the time period 1949~2018. Statistical analysis shows that summer temperature in the Mediterranean and North China is revealing a good correlation when removing the global warming trend. The composite results indicate that the anomalous warming during HS over different regions is both dominantly controlled by an anomalous anticyclone, which enhances the subsidence adiabatic heating of the temperature. Furthermore, the subtropical high (STH) variations faithfully represent the fluctuations in summer temperature over the Mediterranean (cor = 0.78) and North China (cor = 0.80). The anticyclonic anomalies over both focus areas are associated with North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific sea surface temperature (sst), respectively. These results indicate that the total influence of the STH position anomaly should be taken into consideration in different places during HS. However, whether such atmosphere-ocean feedback can be improved by numerical experiments is worthy to be further studied.     

Comparison of monthly rainfall generated from dynamical and statistical downscaling methods: a case study of the Heihe River Basin in China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Monthly rainfall in the Heihe River Basin (HRB) was simulated by the dynamical downscaling model (DDM) and statistical downscaling model (SDM). The...     

Changes in climate variability and seasonal rainfall extremes: a case study from San Fernando (Spain), 1821–2000

Summary ?Small changes in the mean and standard deviation values can produce relatively large changes in the probability of extreme events. The seasonal precipitation record in San Fernando (SW Spain) for 1821–2000 is used to investigate how much the relative frequency of dry and wet seasons changes with changes in mean value and standard deviation. The percentiles P10, P25, P75 and P90 of the reference period 1961–1990 are used to define dry and wet seasons. The probability of extreme seasons as function of mean and standard deviation is analysed. The main conclusion is a non-linear relationship between changes in mean and standard deviation values and extreme seasons probability. With these threshold values, the main influence corresponds to changes in mean value. Results are discussed bearing in mind projections of General Circulation Models on future climate in southern Iberian Peninsula. Received June 11, 2001; Revised March 3, 2002     

2004年一次连续性暴雨天气过程的中尺度对流系统分析

利用卫星云图对引发2004年6月22～24日贵州省连续性区域强降水的中尺度对流云团的发生、发展和演变过程进行分析,得出中尺度对流系统的活动是产生此次连续性暴雨天气的主要因素.     

Homogeneous zones of heavy rainfall of 1-day duration over India

Summary The highest recorded 24-hour rainfall totals from 1875 to 1982 for about 300 stations were plotted and isohyets drawn to delineate the homogeneous zones of heavy rainfall. The isohyetal pattern indicated an unsteady increase from less than 20 cm in the far west and far north to over 50 cm on or near the coasts. At a few inland stations outstanding amounts have been recorded but these are randomly distributed in space and time. Besides these, there existed a densely gauged area in the Central Peninsula between latitudes 8 °N to 21 °N within which more than 20 cm of rain in 24 hours have never been recorded. The areas of heavy rainfall of one day duration include the entire Indian region except the far western extremity, the northern area bordered by the Himalayas and the central peninsula. The correlation coefficient between the highest rainfall and elevation indicated no significant relationship.With 2 Figures