克孜尔水库大坝的地震安全性评估

通过对克孜尔水库地震活动和地震地质构造背景，地震危险性，地震动力反应等的分析，评估土坝的抗震性能与安全性，并对大坝及库区周围的地质灾害进行了预测。     

展望建筑物震害预测的发展方向

本文回顾了我国 建筑物震害预测研究和应用的发展过程，评论了各种预测方法的优缺点，指出了各家建议预测方法存在的不确定性，针对存在的问题，提出了减少消除物震害预测方法中不确定性的途径。最后，展望了建筑物震害预测在的实用前景和发展方向。     

新疆克孜尔水库地震危险性预测研究

应用库区多项形变观测资料，对克孜尔水库蓄水后出现的形变异常及诱发水库地震的危险性进行了研究。结果认为：①穿过水库大坝的F2活断层在水后出现水平和垂直形变的特大异常变化主要是前期水库施工开挖土石方、填筑土石方及水库蓄水引起地面负荷变化的综合效应所致；②克孜尔水库虽然存在诱发水库地震的潜在因素，但从库容、坝高、F2活断层产状、地质构造背景、水地质条件、岩性以及世界各国发生水库 诱发地震的充分条件；③由库区各项形变观测资料分析表明，库区地壳形变已由施工－蓄水初期时的反向异常变化恢复到了施工蓄水前的正常变化状态，各种受力因素经过调整达到了新的平衡，已进入相对稳定的继承性运动期，因此今后因蓄水诱发水库地震的可能性不大。     

贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用

概率理论为大量工程应用中包含的不确定性分析及影响提供了数学依据。本讨论贝叶斯模型在房屋震害预测中的应用。贝叶斯模型假定分布参数为未知的随机变量，充分利用主观判断和观测数据通过贝叶斯公式得到房屋震害概率的合理估计，以地震考察取得的永恒破坏资料为基础，举例说明了贝叶斯模型的实际应用，内容涉及到概率平均分布函数，贝叶斯估计贝叶斯更新概率等重要概念，还讨论了1次地震事件及连发地震事件的影响所基于贝叶斯模型建立的永恒震害矩阵适用于成丛型地震的震害预测。     

群体震害的快速预测法

本文收集了国内大量的实际震害资料和预测震害资料,在对这些资料进行分析处理的基础上提出了群体震害预测的快速法模型。通过对厦门市的震害预测和比较,说明了本文提供的预测模型的可靠性。     

建筑物震害预测在减轻城市地震灾害中的作用

在目前地震频发、地震预报尚不成熟的情况下,人们越来越清醒地认识到震灾防御的紧迫性。通过案例分析,说明建筑物震害预测有助于发现城市抗震性能薄弱的建筑物,并为其加固改造提供依据,进而为减轻城市地震灾害服务。     

山西师范大学建筑物的震害预测

在统计、收集山西师范大学各类建筑物资料的基础上，对其各类建筑物进行了震害预测和经济损失估计，给出了各类建筑物在不同烈度下的破坏结果和经济损失值，为地震灾害的综合防御提供了科学依据。     

古交市重要建筑物的震害预测

利用结构层间延伸率判定砖结构房屋破坏程度的震害预测方法，对古交市内8座重要建筑进行了震害预测。结果表明，古交市重要建筑具有良好的抗震设施。     

城市建筑物震害预测方法的改进

目前基于地震烈度的建筑物震害预测方法,通常按整烈度给出预测结果,造成在设定地震影响下烈度分界线两侧相邻的、抗震能力相同的建筑物震害预测结果有很大的差异,而同一烈度圈内靠近高烈度分界线与靠近低烈度分界线的建筑物震害预测结果却完全相同,这与实际震害情况严重不符。为了解决这个问题,将地震烈度按0.2度间隔进行分档,同时将震害指数和破坏等级也进一步细化出5个分档。按地震烈度与震害指数的关系,通过拟合方法和等分方法得到5个烈度分档的震害指数调整系数和分档震害指数,拟合方法获得的调整系数适用于群体房屋震害预测,等分方法获得的震害指数适用于单体房屋震害预测,通过改进方法获得的设定地震影响下震害预测结果,可以体现同一烈度不同烈度分档内建筑物震害差异,并使烈度线两侧,抗震能力相同的建筑物的震害预测结果不再出现跃变。     

HPPPR模型及其在地震综合预测研究中的初步应用

在综合考虑经典投影寻踪算法特点的基础上,针对投影寻踪计算中存在的一些不利因素,给出相应的解决思路.利用数值仿真技术进行基于粒子群优化算法与厄密特多项式构建的投影寻踪回归模型建模能力与计算精度的检验,再将其应用于多维地震时间序列综合建模预测中.计算结果和进一步分析表明,基于粒子群优化算法与厄密特多项式构建的投影寻踪回归投影寻踪模型具有简单、快速、有效的特点,在实际地震综合预测建模中取得了满意的效果,可作为地震综合预测的一种回归分析方法.     

皖东北地区多层砌体校舍抗震调查与震害预测

基于皖东北地区多层砌体校舍抗震性能调查,结合汶川地震的震害,对皖东北地区中小学多层砌体校舍的特点、抗震能力进行阐述,运用易损性概率分析法对所调查的校舍进行震害预测,并提出了相应的防震减灾对策,以期为该地区校舍安全工程提供参考.     

Methodological Considerations for the Evaluation of Seismic Risk on Road Network

The recent earthquakes in California and Japan have shown the fundamental role that the road infrastructure plays in emergencies. In fact, only the maintenance of a sufficient level of efficiency can help to quickly reach the affected areas and thus avoid further serious consequences. The necessity of guaranteeing the functionality of the transport network during seismic events therefore requires seismic risk planning extended also to the road infrastructures in order to support the management of post-earthquake emergencies. Analogously it is fundamentally important to have analysis instruments of the road system able to preventatively evaluate the effects of earthquakes in order to identify possible emergencies, therefore preparing a program of intervention to reduce seismic risk on road networks. This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of seismic risk of road infrastructures according to the following points:Study of seismic hazard of the site for the definition of a seismic scenario using attenuation models in relation to historical seismology and the geological and tectonic characteristics of the territory;Analysis of the direct exposure connected to the probability of the presence of road users on the different parts of the network directly exposed to the seismic event;Analysis of the indirect exposure relative to the distribution of the population and the infrastructures for which post-earthquake accessibility must be guaranteed;Evaluation of the functional vulnerability in relation to the potential replaceability of damaged stretches considering network configuration and geometrical characteristics;Evaluation of structural vulnerability of the stretch correlated to the characteristics (structural, mechanical, technological, etc.) of the different components (bridges, embankments, trenches, tunnels) that make up the stretches obtained by the use of correctly elaborated tables for each component.The determination of global risk indexes of the single stretches and of the network, evaluated by means of a relationship between the ascertained parameters derived from the investigation of the previous points, provides the necessary information for the definition of mitigation measures to reduce the risk and for management planning before and after disaster. The proposed methodology, which has already been applied to a restricted area, is currently being applied to the province of Catania (Sicily, Italy), which is one of the geographical regions of highest seismic risk in Europe, and its future extension to all of eastern Sicily is foreseeable.     

Analysis of Seismic Risk at an Engineering Site from Site Effect Seismic Intensity Data Using the Seismotectonic Method Taking Six Reservoir Dam Sites in Western Anhui as an Example

The seismotectonic method is used to study the seismogenic structures and the maximum potential earthquake around an engineering site in order to determine the seismic risk at the site. Analysis of seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data, in combination with regional seismo-geologieal data, using the seismotectonic method can provide a more reliable result. In this paper, taking the area of six reservoir dam sites in western Anhui as an example, we analyze the seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data in combination with the seismotectonic conditions and find that P (I≥i) = 10% over 50 years. The result shows that the seismogenic structure and the maximum potential earthquake have a controlling effect on seismic risk from future earthquakes in the area around the site.     

《建筑工程抗震性态设计通则》与《规范》中地震作用的比较

《建筑工程抗震生态设计通则(试用)》是一部对我国抗震设计规范修订具有重大指导意义的试用标准。地震作用是抗震设计的首要问题,《通则》中地震作用计算方法与现行规范的差异引人关注。首先分析了《通则》和规范的场地设计谱,然后比较了二者地震作用计算方法,最后引入2个算例计算了水平地震作用的差别。对《通则》的应用,对修订和完善下一代规范有一定的参考作用。     

Seismic Response of Adjacent Buildings Connected with Friction Dampers

The effectiveness of passive energy dissipation systems to improve seismic performance of connected buildings is now well established through extensive analytical and experimental investigations. However, the performance of buildings connected with friction dampers has not been looked into. In this paper, the investigation is carried out to study the structural responses of two adjacent buildings connected with friction dampers under various earthquake excitations. A formulation of the equations of motion for the two adjacent multi degree of freedom (MDOF) buildings connected with friction dampers is presented. The numerical study is carried out in two parts, namely (i) two adjacent MDOF buildings connected with friction dampers having same slip force in all the dampers and (ii) two adjacent MDOF buildings connected with friction dampers having different slip forces in the dampers. The effectiveness of the dampers in terms of the reduction of structural responses, namely, displacement, acceleration and shear forces of connected adjacent buildings is investigated. A parametric study is also conducted to investigate the optimum slip force of the dampers. In addition, the optimal placement of the dampers, rather than providing the dampers at all the floor levels is also studied to minimize the cost of the dampers. Results show that using friction dampers to connect the adjacent buildings of different fundamental frequencies can effectively reduce earthquake-induced responses of either building if slip force of the dampers is appropriately selected. Also, it is not necessary to connect the two adjacent buildings at all floors but lesser dampers at appropriate locations can significantly reduce the earthquake response of the combined system. Further, it is also observed that the reduction in the responses when the two MDOF buildings connected with 50% of the total dampers is almost as much as when they are connected at all the floors, thereby reducing the cost of the dampers significantly.     

新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定

地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型是概率地震危险性分析的两个核心。在新版地震区划图中,依据板内地震活动空间不均匀性分布的特点,在概率地震危险性分析方法(CPSHA)中采用了由地震统计区、背景潜在震源区和构造潜在震源区构成的三级层次性潜在震源区模型,并构建了相应的地震活动性模型。本文在论述CPSHA方法及其地震活动性模型基本概念的基础上,重点介绍了新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的三级潜在震源区模型的构成、地震活动性假定和基本特点,同时,也对新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的重要参数确定思路、方法与结果进行了介绍。本文将为更好地认识与理解我国新版地震动参数区划图提供有益的参考。