Atmospheric and oceanic forcing of the rapid polar motion

The rapid polar motion for periods below 20 days is revisited in light of the most recent and accurate geodetic and geophysical data. Although its amplitude is smaller than 2 mas, it is excited mostly by powerful atmospheric processes, as large as the seasonal ones. The residual amplitude, representing about 20% of the total excitation, stems from the oceans. Rapid polar motion has an irregular nature that is well explained by the combined influence of the atmosphere and the oceans. An overall spectrum reveals cycles principally at 20, 13.6 (fortnightly tidal period) and 10 days (corresponding to the normal atmospheric mode Y₃¹{\Psi_3^1}), but this is only an averaged feature hiding its strong variability over seasonal time scales. This explains why it is so delicate to determine an empirical model of the tidal effect on polar motion. The variability in both amplitude and phase of the 13.6-day term is probably caused by a lunar barometric effect, modulated by some sub-seasonal thermal processes. The irregularities of the prominent cycles of the short-term polar motion are well explained by the atmospheric and oceanic excitations. The oceanic variability reinforces the atmospheric one, as they were triggered by the same agent, maybe seasonal and inter-annual thermal variations.     

Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables from the GLDAS models

Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.     

Rotational evaluation of a long-period spherical harmonic ocean tide model

By exchanging angular momentum with the solid earth, tidal variations in ocean currents and sea level cause the rotation of the solid earth to change. Observations of earth rotation variations can therefore be used to evaluate ocean tide models. The rotational predictions of a spherical harmonic ocean tide model that is not constrained by any type of data are compared here to the predictions of numerical ocean tide models and to earth rotation observations from which atmospheric and non-tidal oceanic effects have been removed. The spherical harmonic ocean tide model is shown to account for the observed variations at the fortnightly tidal period in polar motion excitation but not in length-of-day. Overall, its long-period polar motion excitation predictions fit the observed tidal signals better than do the predictions of the numerical ocean tide models studied here. It may be possible to improve its agreement with length-of-day observations by tuning certain model parameters, as was done to obtain the close agreement reported here between the modeled and observed polar motion excitation; alternatively, the discrepancy in length-of-day may point to the need to revise current models of mantle anelasticity and/or models of the oceanic response to atmospheric pressure variations.     

我国GPS基准站地壳垂直位移周年变化的气象激发

利用全球大气、海洋、积雪和土壤水的地表质量负荷资料 ,计算了中国GPS基准网 2 4个台站垂向位移周年变化的气象激发 ,得到振幅 5mm10mm的高程变化。通过与GPS观测资料解算的垂向位移结果比较 ,大部分台站的结果与GPS结果在振幅上符合比较好 ,但相位普遍超前一到二个月     

GIS支持下的海洋水文气象信息成图模式的研究

针对海洋水文气象信息的显示需求,首先分析了其自身特点与表达习惯,并探讨了适合于海洋领域专属信息可视化表达的成图模式。基于海洋基础环境数据的地理分布特性,利用专业G IS软件ArcG IS的基本成图功能,编程实现了海洋水文气象数据可视化成图的专业应用。丰富了海洋专属信息的表达方式和内容揭示,有效地支持了海洋应用。     

Theory of oceanic levelling for improving the geoid from satellite altimetry

The problem of improving the geoid from satellite altimetry is formulated and studied within the scope of geophysical fluid dynamics. The oceanic levelling is defined by analogy to the astrogeodetic levelling and it is used to determine the sea surface topography as a function of current velocity, atmospheric pressure and viscosity. Simulating strong currents like the Gulf Stream or the Kuroshio the numerical treatment of the oceanic levelling shows that the sea surface topography can come up to an order of magnitude of1–2 m, whereby the results depend on latitude and slightly on the actual pressure conditions.     

AE环境下海洋观测数据专题图自动成图设计

以海洋水文气象数据为例,详细阐述了在ArcEngine开发环境下,根据不同专题要素动态加载ArcGIS制图模板,动态抽取计算空间数据库数据,并根据各专题要素相应修改模板信息,进而实现海洋观测数据专题图的自动批量成图功能。     

从ASTER和Landsat／TM卫星数据反演日本千叶地区地表反射率和气溶胶光学厚度分布

在卫星遥感大气研究中，已有的精确反演海洋表面反射率和其上空气溶胶光学厚度分布的算法，由于陆地地表像元反射率的不均一性，使得这些方法在应用于陆地表面反射率的反演中具有一定的局限性。而利用三步校正法可以去除地表邻近像元的影响，从而消除这种局限性。文中介绍了三步校正的算法，并对日本千叶地区ASTER卫星数据进行了大气和地表邻近像元的影响校正，精确地反演了该地区的地表反射率，通过地表反射率和气溶胶光学厚度之间的关系计算得到了气溶胶光学厚度的分布。同时证明了在洁净天反演的地表反射率可以应用于反演同一季节中非洁净天的气溶胶光学厚度分布，这样不但减小了气溶胶模式选择的影响，而且实现了在缺少太阳辐射计数据情况下获得气溶胶光学厚度分布的目的。     

An improved empirical model for the effect of long-period ocean tides on polar motion

Because the tide-raising potential is symmetric about the Earth’s polar axis it can excite polar motion only by acting upon non-axisymmetric features of the Earth like the oceans. In fact, after removing atmospheric and non-tidal oceanic effects, polar motion excitation observations show a strong fortnightly tidal signal that is not completely explained by existing dynamical and empirical ocean tide models. So a new empirical model for the effect of the termensual (Mtm and mtm), fortnightly (Mf and mf), and monthly (Mm) tides on polar motion is derived here by fitting periodic terms at these tidal frequencies to polar motion excitation observations that span 2 January 1980 to 8 September 2006 and from which atmospheric and non-tidal oceanic effects have been removed. While this new empirical tide model can fully explain the observed fortnightly polar motion excitation signal during this time interval it would still be desirable to have a model for the effect of long-period ocean tides on polar motion that is determined from a dynamical ocean tide model and that is therefore independent of polar motion observations.     

Atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological contributions to seasonal variations in length of day

 The annual and semiannual residuals derived in the axial angular momentum budget of the solid Earth–atmosphere system reflect significant signals. They must be caused by further excitation sources. Since, in particular, the contribution for the wind term from the atmospheric layer between the 10 and 0.3 hPa levels to the seasonal variations in length of day (LOD) is still missing, it is necessary to extend the top level into the upper stratosphere up to 0.3 hPa. Under the conservation of the total angular momentum of the entire Earth, variations in the oceanic angular momentum (OAM) and the hydrological angular momentum (HAM) are further significant excitation sources at seasonal time scales. Focusing on other contributions to the Earth's axial angular momentum budget, the following data are used in this study: axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) data derived for the 10–0.3 hPa layer from 1991 to 1997 for computing the missing wind effects; axial OAM functions as generated by oceanic general circulation models (GCMs), namely for the ECHAM3 and the MICOM models, available from 1975 to 1994 and from 1992 to 1994, respectively, for computing the oceanic contributions to LOD changes, and, concerning the HAM variations, the seasonal estimates of the hydrological contribution as derived by Chao and O'Connor [(1988) Geophys J 94: 263–270]. Using vector representation, it is shown that the vectors achieve a close balance in the global axial angular momentum budget within the estimated uncertainties of the momentum quantities on seasonal time scales. Received: 6 April 2000 / Accepted: 13 December 2000     

基于ARIMA模型的地球自转变化预报

准确预报地球自转变化对于精密定位、空间飞行器的跟踪与正常运行,具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。根据周日变化（UT1-UTC）和极移变化（PM）的特性,用最小二乘法,建立了适合于UT1-UTC和PM趋势项和周期项观测数据的拟合模型。对于UT1-UTC残差序列采用差分自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型进行预报,对于PM残差采用季节性自回归移动平均（SARMA）模型进行预报。实例结果表明：我们的UT卜UTC预报结果比地球自转服务（IERS）产品好,而PM比IERS要差一些。当大气角动量（AAM）和海洋角动量（OAM）数据参与计算后,对UT卜UTC的预报有细微改善,对PM无改善。     

Precise tidal gravity recorded with superconducting gravimeters at stations Wuhan (China) and Kyoto (Japan)

 Three long series of tidal gravity observations, totalizing approximately 24 years and recorded with three superconducting gravimeters, T004, T008, and T009, at stations Wuhan (China) and Kyoto (Japan), are studied. The tidal amplitude factors and phase differences are determined precisely using Eterna and Nsv techniques. The precision of the main tidal amplitudes is at the same level of 0.01 μGal. The atmospheric gravity signals are corrected using the coefficients determined with a regression method between tidal gravity residual and station air pressure. The oceanic gravity signals are modeled based on five global oceanic models. It is found that the oceanic models developed by the analysis of measurements from Topex/Poseidon altimeters have the best fit to the superconducting gravimeter measurements, since the observed residuals and the discrepancies between the amplitude factors and the theoretical tidal models are reduced more significantly. The long-period gravity variations are dominated by the non-linear drift phenomena of the instruments, and the short-term variations in gravity are due to the background noise at the stations. Received: 20 January 2000 / Accepted: 15 September 2000     

Atmospheric excitation of polar motion

The polar motion excited by the fluctuation of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is investigated. Based on the global AAM data, numerical results demonstrate that the fluctuation of AAM can excite the seasonal wobbles (e.g., the 18-month wobble) and the Chandler wobble, which agree well with previous studies. In addition, by filtering the dominant low frequency components, some distinct polar wobbles corresponding to some great diurnal and semi-diurnal atmospheric tides are found.     

Evidence and cause of climate cycles in polar motion

 The long-term variation of polar motion contains a number of periods similar to climate cycles. Two possible causes for these long-term variations are mass redistributions produced by variations of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and mass exchanges between the cryosphere and hydrosphere. Inner-core wobble, which can be inferred from the observed motion of the geomagnetic pole, is another phenomenon with periods similar to climate cycles. Only observations relating to mass redistributions caused by atmosphere dynamics and inner-core wobble are available for sufficiently long periods of time to investigate their influence on climate cycles in polar motion. Both processes contribute to climate cycles in polar motion, but they cannot completely explain these cycles. Possible sources of climate cycles are discussed. Received: 20 December 1999 / Accepted: 28 August 2000     

Atmospheric excitation of polar motion

The polar motion excited by the fluctuation of global atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is investigated. Based on the global AAM data, numerical results demonstrate that the fluctuation of AAM can excite the seasonal wobbles (e.g., the 18-month wobble) and the Chandler wobble, which agree well with previous studies. In addition, by filtering the dominant low frequency components, some distinct polar wobbles corresponding to some great diurnal and semi-diurnal atmospheric tides are found.     

Use of atmospheric angular momentum forecasts for UT1 predictions: analyses over CONT08

Real-time orbit determination and interplanetary navigation require accurate predictions of the orientation of the Earth in the celestial reference frame and in particular that for Universal Time UT1. Much of the UT1 variations over periods ranging from hours to a couple of years are due to the global atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) forecast series may be used as a proxy index to predict UT1. Our approach taking advantage of this fact is based on an adaptive procedure. It involves incorporating integrations of AAM estimates into UT1 series. The procedure runs on a routine basis using AAM forecasts that are based on the two meteorological series, from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is pertinent to test the prediction method for the period that includes the special CONT08 campaign over which we expect a significant improvement in UT1 accuracy. The studies we carried out were aimed both to compare atmospheric forecasts and analyses, as well as to compare the skills of the UT1 forecasts based on the method with atmospheric forecasts and that using current statistical processes, as applied to the C04 Earth orientation parameters series derived by the International Earth rotation and Reference Systems service (IERS). Here we neglect the oceanic sub-diurnal and diurnal variations, as these signals are expected to be smaller than the UT1-equivalent of 100 μs, when averaged over a few days. The prediction performances for a 2-day forecast are similar, but at a forecast horizon of a week, the AAM-based forecast is roughly twice as skillful as the statistically based one.     

Comparison of polar motion with oceanic and atmospheric angular momentum time series for 2-day to Chandler periods

During a 4-year period starting in July 1996 and using intervals ranging from 3 days to 4 years, four precise polar motion (PM) series have been compared to excitation by atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) augmented with oceanic angular momentum (OAM) data. The first three series (C03, C04 and Bulletin A) are multi-technique combinations generated by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) and the fourth combined series (IGS00P02) is produced by the International GPS Service (IGS) using only GPS data. The IGS PM compared the best with the combined excitations of atmosphere and oceans (AAM+OAM) at all intervals, showing high overall correlation of 0.8–0.9. Even for the interval of only three days, the IGS PM gave a significant correlation of about 0.6. Moreover, during the interval of February 1999 – July 2000, which should be representative of the current precision of the IGS PM, a significant correlation (>0.4) extended to periods as short as 2.2 days and 2.5 days for the x_p and y_p PM components, respectively. When using the IERS Bulletin B (C04) PM and an interval of almost 6 years, starting in November 1994, the combined OAM+AAM accounted for practically all the annual, semi-annual and Chandler wobble (CW) PM signals. When only AAM was used, either the US National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis data, which were used throughout this study, or the Japanese Meteorological Agency data, two large and well-resolved amplitude peaks of about 0.1 mas/day, remained at the retrograde annual and CW periods.     

Comparison of length of day with oceanic and atmospheric angular momentum series

This is a companion paper to earlier comparisons and study of operational polar motion series, published recently in the same journal. In this contribution, four operational, publicly available, length-of-day (LOD) time series have been compared to the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) augmented with recent oceanic angular momentum (OAM) data during September 1997–July 2000, using several intervals ranging from 3 days to almost 3 years. Additionally, the LOD of the International GNSS Service (IGS) historical series and a new LOD combination (CMB) were also analyzed. All the six LOD series showed an overall correlation exceeding 0.99 for the complete interval of almost 3 years. Even for the shortest interval of only 3 days, the correlation was still higher than 0.60. The combined AAM + OAM series with inverted barometer corrections always gave the best correlation. The Rapid Service LOD of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) compared the best at all intervals but the shortest one, where the CMB LOD was the best with a correlation of 0.73, followed by both IGS series with a correlation of about 0.71. Prior to all the correlation analyses, in addition to the removal of all the known (conventional) LOD tidal variations with periods ranging from 5.6 days to 18.6 years and lunar fortnightly and monthly oceanic tides, small corrections of lunar fortnightly and monthly tides, semi-annual, annual periodical signals, drift and scale had to be estimated with respect to the combined AAM + OAM series.     

Polar motion of the triaxial nonrigid Earth and atmospheric excitation

The present study aims to extend the traditional rotation theory of the rotational-symmetric Earth to the triaxial Earth.We re-formulate the Liouville equations and their general solutions for the triaxial nonrigid Earth and find that the traditional theory intro-duces some theoretical errors in modeling the excitation functions.Furthermore,we apply that theory to the atmospheric excitation and find that theoretical errors should not be neglected given the present measurement accuracy.Thus we conclude that the traditional the-ory of the rotation of the rotational-symmetric Earth should be revised and upgraded to include the effects of the Earth’s triaxiality.     

Simulated estimation of hydrological loads from GRACE

Four different basin functions are developed to estimate water storage variations within individual river basins from time variations in the Stokes coefficients now available from the GRACE mission. The four basin functions are evaluated using simulated data. Basin functions differ in how they minimize effects of three major error sources: measurement error; leakage of signal from one region to another; and errors in the atmospheric pressure field removed during GRACE data processing. Three of the basin functions are constant in time, while the fourth changes monthly using information about the signal (hydrologic and oceanic load variations). To test basin functions performance, Stokes coefficient variations from land and ocean models are synthesized, and error levels 50 and 100 times greater than pre-launch GRACE error estimate are used to corrupt them. Errors at 50 times pre-launch estimates approximately simulate current GRACE data. GRACE recovery of water storage variations is attempted for five different river basins (Amazon, Mississippi, Lena, Huang He and Oranje), representing a variety of sizes, locations, and signal variance. In the large basins (Amazon, Mississippi and Lena), water storage variations are recovered successfully at both error levels. As the error level increases from 50 to 100 times, basin functions change their shape, yielding less atmospheric pressure error and more leakage error. Amplitude spectra of measurement and atmospheric pressure errors have different shapes, but the best results are obtained when both are used in basin function design. When high-quality information about the signal is available, for example from climate and ocean models, changing the basin function each month can reduce leakage error and improve estimates of time variable water storage within basins.