On the influence of earthquake energy range on the estimated seismicity parameters before the magnitude 7.9 Kronotskii earthquake of 1997

Results are reported from a detailed study of central Kamchatka seismicity for the period 1962–1997 based on a modification of the traditional approach. The approach involves (a) a detailed structure of the seismic region that recognizes the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks and two further blocks, the continental slope, and the offshore portion, (b) a study of variations in the rate of M = 3.0–7.2 earthquakes and the amount of seismic energy released at depths of 0–50 and 51–100 km, (c) a study of seismicity variability, and (d) separate estimates of the recurrence of crust-mantle earthquakes (depths 0–50 km) and mantle events (51–100 km). As a result, apart from corroborating the fact of a quiescence preceding the December 5, 1997 Kronotskii earthquake (M 7.9), we also found that a relationship exists between its beginning and the position of the earthquake-generating region relative to the mainshock epicenter. The quiescence dominates the seismic process during the pre-mainshock period and is characterized by a decreased rate of earthquakes (the first feature) and a decreased amount of seismic energy release (the second feature). Based on the first feature, we found that the quiescence started in 1987 throughout the entire depth range (0–100 km) in both parts of the Kronotskii geoblock close to the rupture zone of the eponymous earthquake. As to the Shipunskii geoblock, which is farther from the rupture zone, the quiescence began in the mantle of the inner area first (1988) and somewhat later at depths of 0–50 km within the continental slope (1989). By the second feature, the quiescence began at shallower depths in the inner area of the Kronotskii geoblock at the same time and later on (a year later) in the mantle (1988). Under the continental slope of the trench in the Shipunskii geoblock the shallower quiescence also began in 1987, while it was 3 years late in the inner zone (1990) and involved the earthquake-generating earth volume at depths of 0–100 km. These data are identical with or sufficiently close to the estimate for the beginning of this quiescence using a circular area of radius 150 km that combines the Kronotskii and Shipunskii geoblocks by the RTL method (1990).     

Body wave velocity distribution in the Benioff zone of central Kamchatka during aftershocks of the Kronotskii earthquake of 1997 (M = 7.9)

The distribution of the P and S velocities in the Benioff zone of central Kamchatka during the period of aftershocks (1997–2004) of the disastrous Kronotskii earthquake of 1997 (M = 7.9, M_W = 7.7) has been determined. Based on the data for the foreshock period immediately preceding the earthquake (1991–1997), a sharp increase in the body wave velocities in the Benioff zone below the Kronotskii Peninsula (up to 9.5–9.7 km/s for V _P and 5.1–5.3 km/s for V _S) has been determined at depths of 55–140 km in the subvertical region. Based on observations during the period of aftershocks comparable with the last period of foreshocks (about 7 years), it has been established that the body wave velocities calculated for the Benioff zone below the Kronotskii Peninsula returned to the initial values typical of the beginning of that period. This indicates that stresses relaxed around the head part of the Kronotskii earthquake rupture zone after its origination. This conclusion is confirmed by a sharp decrease in the number of earthquakes with M = 2.3–4.9 in the Benioff zone below the Kronotskii Peninsula. Moreover, taking the velocity distribution during the period of aftershocks into account, it has been determined that a second stress relaxation zone is located at the southwestern flank of the Kronotskii earthquake rupture zone where the largest (M = 6.7) aftershock occurred. According to these data, it is concluded that two stress concentration centers could have existed during the preparation of the Kronotskii earthquake.     

A study in the velocity structure of December 5, 1997, M w = 7.8 Kronotskii rupture zone, Kamchatka

The object of the present study was to obtain and investigate the 3D velocity structure of the rupture zone of a large earthquake, to be specific, the great ( _Mw = 7.8) Kronotskii earthquake that occurred in Kamchatka on December 5, 1997. The event was preceded by a foreshock swarm (December 3–5, 1997) and followed by a long aftershock sequence. We investigated the V _P velocity distribution for different time periods: December 3–7, 1997 (when the chief events occurred, viz., the main shock and the larger aftershocks) and for subsequent periods of decaying aftershock activity until December 1998. The velocity distribution in the rupture zone proved to be inhomogeneous. Three regions have been identified: the northeastern (the main shock and foreshocks), the central, and the southwestern, which differ both in the character of seismicity and in velocity. The V _P distribution was found to be time-dependent. The velocity was below the standard values in the foreshock-aftershock area in December 1997, subsequently the velocity increased. These results may indicate the absence of a continuous rupture zone, with the main shock and the two largest aftershocks that occurred in the southwest probably being independent events rupturing a transverse fault during the stress rearrangement following the main shock.     

2008年5月12日中国汶川M=7.9级地震预计增大了三条主要断裂系的破裂应力和地震发生率

龙门山断裂带上的汶川地震摧毁了四川的几座城市,夺去了69000多人的生命。计算结果显示,该地震可能使部分鲜水河断裂、东昆仑断裂大部以及部分岷江断裂应力增加了0．2～0．5bar,更加接近破裂状态。这3条位于青藏高原东部的活动断裂带均在离汶川发震带150-400km的库仑静应力影响范围内。由于部分受力断层上的应变累积至少已有一个世纪之久,最近的汶川地震有可能触发或加速这些断层带上新的7级以上强震的发生,从而可能造成从四川省康定至道孚、青海省玛沁至甘肃省洛大以及邻近区域的强烈震动。本文利用由计算得到的汶川地震引起的应力变化以及过去10年观测到的背景地震发生率,对该地区在未来10年内发生破坏性地震的概率以及可能的空间分布进行了预测。结果表明,研究区内在未来10年内发生M≥6级地震的概率为57％～71％,发生M≥7级地震的概率为8％～12％,是汶川地震前发震概率的2倍。     

2013年洱源5.5级地震前地震活动异常分析

分析2013年云南洱源5.5级地震前地震活动异常,发现地震前震中附近长达8个月M≥3.0地震平静,云南地区2013年2月4级地震连发,在震前一个半月内快速形成M≥3.0地震条带,地震当天在震中东北方距离约30 km处发生前震序列.结果表明,洱源地震的孕育、发生与大区域应力活动有关.     

菏泽5.9级地震前后S值的时空变化

运用地震活动度(S)的计算模型对1983年菏泽5.9级地震前后,周围地区进行了时空扫描,发现了在主震前2-3年的时空分布上,S值都有一个异常升高的过程。     

Tempo-spatial rupture process of the 1997 Mani, Xizang (Tibet), China earthquake of MS=7.9

IntroductionAnearthquakeofMs=7.9occurredinMaul,Xizang(Tibet),Chinaat10:02f55.4(UTC),No')ember8.1997.TheepicenterdeterminedbyChinaNationalSeismographNetwork(CNSN)is87.33"E.3>.26'N,thefocaldepthis40km,andthemagnitudeisMs=7.4.Accordingtothedeterllllnati...     

Ionospheric electromagnetic perturbations observed on DEMETER satellite before Chile M7.9 earthquake

Based on the ionospheric electromagnetic data observed on DEMETER satellite of France, the ionospheric electromagnetic signals were analyzed within 10 days before Chile M7.9 earthquake on November 14, 2007. It is found that, low frequency electromagnetic disturbances began to increase in a large scale of latitude, and reached to a maximum one week prior to the earthquake, and at about three days before the quake, the peak values shifted to lower latitude. Taking three days as a group, spatial images of a fe...     

龙门山和青藏高原的隆起与2008年汶川(M=7.9)地震

龙门山山脉,即2008年5月12日汶川（M=7．9）毁灭性地震的发生地,界定了喜马拉雅造山带的东缘,并显现出比青藏高原任何地方都大的地形起伏。然而,在这次地震之前,大地测量与地质调查工作都没有测到横跨该山系前缘有明显的缩短变形（Shenetal,2005;Meade,2007;Chenetal,2000）,从而引起了关于该山岳带地形的形成与发展过程的激烈争论。现已提出两个端元模型：（1）脆性地壳增厚,即具有大量滑动的逆冲断层切穿岩石层并引起隆起（Ta—pponnieretal,2001）;（2）地壳流动,即青藏高原下地壳的低粘度物质向外挤出,抬升了喜马拉雅山东北部的地壳（Roydenetal,1997;Burehfiel,2004;Bird,1991）。在此,我们使用平衡地质剖面来说明该山系前缘的地壳缩短、构造起伏与地形地貌是密切相关的。这表明,地壳缩短是位于青藏高原东缘的龙门山的隆起及其地形形成的主要驱动力。致使沿该山系前缘大型逆冲断层发生破裂,并造成数万人死亡和大范围破坏的2008年汶川地震（M=7．9）就是这种地壳缩短过程的作用表现。     

DEMETER卫星观测到的智利7.9级地震前的电离层电磁扰动

利用法国DEMETER卫星观测的电离层电磁数据,分析了2007年11月14日智利7.9级地震前10天内的电磁信号记录,结果发现在震前1周内,低频电磁扰动开始在比较宽的纬度范围内增强,震前3天异常信号幅度达到最大,并在低纬度地区尤其突出.以5天为间隔,比较分析了多参量的空间图像,发现在震前5天异常幅度和范围扩大,震中位于异常区域的边缘地带.分析认为,这次地震前的异常信号与孕震区电磁辐射信号增多及空间加热扰动有关.     

Tempo-spatial rupture process of the 1997 Mani, Xizang (Tibet), China earthquake of M S=7.9

An earthquake of M _S=7.4 occurred in Mani, Xizang (Tibet), China on November 8, 1997. The moment tensor of this earthquake was inverted using the long period body waveform data from China Digital Seismograph Network (CDSN). The apparent source time functions (ASTFs) were retrieved from P and S waves, respectively, using the deconvolution technique in frequency domain, and the tempo-spatial rupture process on the fault plane was imaged by inverting the azimuth dependent ASTFs from different stations. The result of the moment tensor inversion indicates that the P and T axes of earthquake-generating stress field were nearly horizontal, with the P axis in the NNE direction (29°), the T axis in the SEE direction (122°) and that the NEE-SWW striking nodal plane and NNW-SSE striking nodal plane are mainly left-lateral and right-lateral strike-slip, respectively; that this earthquake had a scalar seismic moment of 3.4×10²⁰ N·m, and a moment magnitude of M _W=7.6. Taking the aftershock distribution into account, we proposed that the earthquake rupture occurred in the fault plane with the strike of 250°, the dip of 88° and the rake of 19°. On the basis of the result of the moment tensor inversion, the theoretical seismograms were synthesized, and then the ASTFs were retrieved by deconvoving the synthetic seismograms from the observed seismograms. The ASTFs retrieved from the P and S waves of different stations identically suggested that this earthquake was of a simple time history, whose ASTF can be approximated with a sine function with the half period of about 10 s. Inverting the azimuth dependent ASTFs from P and S waveforms led to the image showing the tempo-spatial distribution of the rupture on the fault plane. From the "remembering" snap-shots, the rupture initiated at the western end of the fault, and then propagated eastward and downward, indicating an overall unilateral rupture. However, the slip distribution is non-uniform, being made up of three sub-areas, one in the western end, about 10 km deep ("western area"); another about 55 km away from the western end and about 35 km deep ("eastern area"); the third about 30 km away from the western end and around 40 km deep ("central area"). The total rupture area was around 70 km long and 60 km wide. From the "forgetting" snap-shots, the rupturing appeared quite complex, with the slip occurring in different position at different time, and the earthquake being of the characteristics of "healing pulse". Another point we have to stress is that the locations in which the rupture initiated and terminated were not where the main rupture took place. Eventually, the static slip distribution was calculated, and the largest slip values of the three sub-areas were 956 cm, 743 cm and 1 060 cm, for the western, eastern and central areas, respectively. From the slip distribution, the rupture mainly distributed in the fault about 70 km eastern to the epicenter; from the aftershock distribution, however, the aftershocks were very sparse in the west to the epicenter while densely clustered in the east to the epicenter. It indicated that the Mani M _S=7.9 earthquake was resulted from the nearly eastward extension of the NEE-SWW to nearly E-W striking fault in the northwestern Tibetan plateau. Contribution No. 99FE2016, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. This work is supported by SSTCC Climb Project 95-S-05 and NSFDYS 49725410.     

Active tectonics and seismicity in the area of the 1997 earthquake sequence in central Italy: A short review

A first tentative comparison between the structural framework related to the active tectonics and the long-term seismicity of the Umbria–Marche Apennines (affected by the 1997 seismic sequence) has provided some insight for discussing the seismotectonic characteristics of the area. This Apennine sector is affected by 15 to 20-km-long active fault systems, consisting of minor fault-segments. Each of these fault-segments may be responsible for earthquakes characterised by magnitudes ranging between 5.5 and 6.0 (such as those occurred in 1599, 1730, 1838, 1859, 1979). However, the occurrence of one large-magnitude event (1703, Ms = 6.7) and of seismic sequences (1747–1751; 1997–1998) indicate that an entire fault system may be activated suddenly (at least in the southern part of the investigated area) or during seismic crises which may last many months. The comparison between the active faulting framework and the long-term seismicity also indicates that no significant earthquakes may be related to the Mt. Vettore Fault System since 1000 AD.     

华北地区强震前地震活动的异常增强

利用应变释放曲线的加速上升作为异常增强的标志和地震预报的中期指标,对华北地区做应变释放曲线的空间扫描,并对此方法的预报效能进行了全面系统的检验。结果表明,该方法有较好的预报效果,文中就其有关问题进行了讨论,并给出其预报规则。     

Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche September 26, 1997 earthquakes

Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicityoccurring prior to the Umbria-Marche earthquake ofSeptember 26, 1997, are studied. By applying the RTLprognostic parameter, a quiescence stage followed bya period of foreshock activation is observed beforethe event. The main shock occurred soon after therecovery of the RTL parameter to its normal backgroundlevel. An investigation of the clustering process isperformed on the earthquakes with M 3.5,occurred since 1989 in the area of the epicenter ofthe September 26, 1997 event. In comparison to theaverage background of the previous period, theincrease of the area of rupture activated during thetwelve months leading up to the Umbria-Marcheconcentrates in the vicinity of the main shock. Someresults of application of the time-to-failure model toseismicity before the Umbria-Marche main shock, arealso discussed.     

珲春7.0级深源地震的地下流体动态异常

介绍了1999年4月8日珲春7．0级深源地震前延边地区地震地下流体动态的典型异常，初步分析了深源地震前地下流体异常的基本特征。     

昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震前中源地震活动特征研究

研究2001年昆仑山口西地震和2008年汶川地震前的中源地震活动特征,与唐山地震前的特征进行比较,发现:3次大地震前曾发生6或7次h≥60 km的中源地震,且大震前中源地震活跃的时间跨度T约5年或5年多。这是大震前中源地震活动最主要的两个特征,包含了孕育大地震的一些重要信息。其他特征还有:中源地震的活动—平静交替、临近大地震前的地震平静、呈条带分布和(或)地震空区等特征,这与大震前壳内地震活动性的一些特征类似。     

汶川M_W7.9和集集M_W7.6地震前应力场转换现象及其可能的前兆意义

2008年四川汶川MW7.9地震和1999年台湾集集MW7.6地震均为挤压推覆构造环境条件下发生的板内逆断层型地震。本文对比分析了两次地震前的CMT解、震区附近的中小地震震源机制解及其反演的应力场可知,集集地震主震震源机制解与用台湾内陆中西部的CMT解反演得到逆断层类型构造应力场吻合,而震区附近中小地震具有随机发生的性质,反演得到了震前与构造应力场不一致的走向滑动类型的局部应力场,但当局部应力场变化到与构造应力场一致时,数月后发生主震;同样,用青藏高原东部的CMT解震源机制反演得到走向滑动类型的构造应力场,逆冲类型的汶川主震与构造应力场的压应力轴吻合,震区附近中小地震反演得到了与构造应力场一致的区域应力场,但震前局部应力场变化为逆冲类型应力场一致时,随即发生主震。说明逆断层型主震区附近随着震源区应力积累,在震前会出现相似的应力场转换现象,当最终转换到与发生主震的应力状态一致时,表明震源区附近应力已达到相当高的应力水平,是发生大地震的征兆,应引起进一步的关注。     

Ionospheric anomalies detected by ground-based GPS before the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, China

In this paper, we used the vertical total electron content (VTEC) derived from ground-based GPS observations to examine the ionospheric variations during the Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake which occurred on May 12, 2008, in China. The final results showed that the ionospheric VTEC around the epicenter increased obviously 9 days before the earthquake, decreased significantly 6 days before the earthquake, and increased strikingly 3 days before the earthquake. Relative to a normal non-perturbed state of the ionosphere, the maximum anomalies in the 3 days exceeded 40%, 40%, and 70%, respectively. The spatial sizes of the VTEC decrement and increment by more than 30% extended larger than 1500 km in latitude and 4000 km in longitude. Moreover, the maximum anomalies 6 days and 3 days before the earthquake moved towards the equator.     

2016年10月20日江苏射阳4.4级地震前的地震活动异常特征

分析2016年10月射阳4.4级地震前出现的地震活动图像异常,将此次地震前与1987年2月射阳5.1级地震前出现的地震活动图像异常进行对比,得到其时间和空间分布特征。还对2016年10月射阳地震前安徽怀宁至南黄海地震条带内的地震进行了调制比分析。