Experimental evaluation of the effect of storm movement on peak discharge

The hypothesis that downstream moving storms with storm length less than watershed length(L_s/L< 1.0) magnify the peak discharges as indicated by kinematic-wave models in previous studies was evaluated in an analysis of the dimensionless peak discharge and dimensionless storm velocity.Previously unpublished experimental data collected for a V-shaped watershed in the Watershed Experimentation System(WES) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,were used in comparison with the simulation results of a kinematic-wave model.It is found that downstream moving storms with L_s/L < 1.0 increase the peak discharges to a limited extent compared to stationary storms,and the kinematic-wave model overstates the increase in the peak flows resulting from downstream moving storms with L_s/L < 1.0.To evaluate the importance of the backwater effects in the experimental watershed,the accuracy of kinematic-wave and dynamic-wave models for the simulation of surface runoff resulting from upstream and downstream moving storms was evaluated utilizing the same experimental data.The kinematic-wave model simulates the upstream moving storms pretty well,i.e.Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of model fit efficiency equal to 0.948 and 0.831 for storms lengths equal to and not equal to the watershed length,respectively.Whereas,the kinematic wave model substantially overestimates the peak discharge of downstream moving storms,and yields generally poorer fits than for upstream moving storm,i.e.NSE equal to 0.867 and 0.674 for storms with lengths equal to and not equal to the watershed length,respectively.The dynamic-wave model simulates the downstream moving storms pretty well,i.e.NSE equal to 0.843 and 0.879 for storms with lengths equal to and not equal to the watershed length,respectively,indicating backwater significantly affects runoff for even this simple experimental watershed.Considering that storm movement did not substantially magnify peak discharge,the assumption of stationary storms made in standard hydrologic design seems reasonable and adequate.     

Effect of spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and watershed characteristics on stream flow hydrograph

The shape, timing and peak flow of a stream flow hydrograph are significantly influenced by spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and watershed characteristics. Depending upon the size and shape of a watershed, its hydrological response is closely linked with storm dynamics. On an urban watershed a rain storm moving in the direction of flow produces a higher peak than it would if it were moving in the opposite direction. The effect of storm speed on peak discharge is much less for rapidly moving storms than for storms moving at about the same speed as the flow velocity. In a relatively homogeneous watershed the most important effect of spatial variability of rainfall occurs in the timing and shape of the runoff hydrograph. Temporally variable rainfall leads to higher peak flow than does constant rainfall. Significant errors in the prediction of runoff occur when an equivalent uniform hillslope is used to represent a heterogeneous hillslope. When average soil properties are used instead of spatially variable properties, significant differences are observed in infiltration. Spatially variable roughness alters the flow dynamics significantly. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing urban rainfall-runoff response to stormwater management extent

We report an empirical analysis of the hydrologic response of three small, highly impervious urban watersheds to pulse rainfall events, to assess how traditional stormwater management (SWM) alters urban hydrographs. The watersheds vary in SWM coverage from 3% to 61% and in impervious cover from 45% to 67%. By selecting a set of storm events that involved a single rainfall pulse with >96% of total precipitation delivered in 60 min, we reduced the effect of differences between storms on hydrograph response to isolate characteristic responses attributable to watershed properties. Watershed-average radar rainfall data were used to generate local storm hyetographs for each event in each watershed, thus compensating for the extreme spatial and temporal heterogeneity of short-duration, intense rainfall events. By normalizing discharge values to the discharge peak and centring each hydrograph on the time of peak we were able to visualize the envelope of hydrographs for each group and to generate representative composite hydrographs for comparison across the three watersheds. Despite dramatic differences in the fraction of watershed area draining to SWM features across these three headwater tributaries, we did not find strong evidence that SWM causes significant attenuation of the hydrograph peak. Hydrograph response for the three watersheds is remarkably uniform despite contrasts in SWM, impervious cover and spatial patterns of land cover type. The primary difference in hydrograph response is observed on the recession limb of the hydrograph, and that change appears to be associated with higher storm-total runoff in the watersheds with more area draining to SWM. Our findings contribute more evidence to the work of previous authors suggesting that SWM is less effective at attenuating urban hydrographs than is commonly assumed. Our findings also are consistent with previous work concluding that percent impervious cover may have greater influence on runoff volume than percent SWM coverage.     

Connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from nested hillslopes and watersheds

Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks.     

Initial impacts of a wildfire on hydrology and suspended sediment and nutrient export in California chaparral watersheds

Stream and rainfall gauging and runoff sampling were used to determine changes in hydrology and export of nutrients and suspended sediment from a June 2004 wildfire that burned 3010 ha in chaparral coastal watersheds of the Santa Ynez Mountains, California. Precipitation during water year 2005 exceeded average precipitation by 200–260%. Burned watersheds had order of magnitude higher peak discharge compared with unburned watersheds but similar annual runoff. Suspended sediment export of 181 mt ha^?1 from a burned watershed was approximately ten times greater than from unburned watersheds. Ammonium export from burned watersheds largely occurred during the first three storms and was 32 times greater than from unburned watersheds. Nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen, and phosphate export from burned watersheds increased by 5.5, 2.8, and 2.2 times, respectively, compared with unburned chaparral watersheds. Storm runoff and peak discharge increase in burned compared with unburned sites were greatest during early season storms when enhanced runoff occurred. As the winter progressed, closely spaced storms and above average precipitation reduced the fire‐related impacts that resulted in significant increases in annual post‐fire runoff and export in other studies in southern California chaparral. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of the duration and direction of storm movement on planar flow with full and partial areal coverage

Using kinematic wave equations, analytical solutions are derived for flow resulting from storms moving either up or down the plane and covering it fully or partially. By comparing the flow resulting from a moving storm with that from a stationary storm of the same duration and areal coverage, the influence of storm duration, direction and areal coverage is investigated. It is found that the direction, duration and areal coverage of storm movement have a pronounced effect on the discharge hydrograph. The runoff hydrographs resulting from storms moving downstream are quite different from those from storms moving upstream. Likewise, the areal coverage of the storm has a pronounced effect on the runoff hydrograph. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical modeling of surface runoff and erosion due to moving rainstorms at the drainage basin scale

A physically-based distributed erosion model (MEFIDIS) was applied to evaluate the consequences of storm movement on runoff and erosion from the Alenquer basin in Portugal. Controlled soil flume laboratory experiments were also used to test the model. Nine synthetic circular storms were used, combining three storm diameters (0.5, 1 and 2 times the Alenquer basin’s axial length) with three speeds of storm movement (0.5, 1 and 2 m/s); storm intensities were synthesized in order to maintain a constant rainfall depth of 50 mm. The model was applied to storms moving downstream as well as upstream along the basin’s axis. In all tests, downstream-moving storms caused significantly higher peak runoff (56.5%) and net erosion (9.1%) than did upstream-moving storms. The consequences for peak runoff were amplified as the storm intensity increased. The hydrograph shapes were also different: for downstream-moving storms, runoff started later and the rising limb was steeper, whereas for upstream moving storms, runoff started early and the rising limb was less steep. Both laboratory and model simulations on the Alenquer basin showed that the direction of storm movement, especially in case of extreme rainfall events, significantly affected runoff and soil loss.     

The effect of storm movement on infiltration,runoff and soil erosion in a semi-arid catchment

Rainfall characteristics are key factors influencing infiltration and runoff generation in catchment hydrology, particularly for arid and semiarid catchments. Although the effect of storm movement on rainfall-runoff processes has been evaluated and emphasized since the 1960s, the effect on the infiltration process has barely been considered. In this study, a physically based distributed hydrological model (InHM) was applied to a typical semi-arid catchment (Shejiagou, 4.26 km²) located in the Loess Plateau, China, to investigate the effect of storm movement on infiltration, runoff and soil erosion at the catchment scale. Simulations of 84 scenarios of storm movement were conducted, including storms moving across the catchment in both the upstream and downstream directions along the main channel, while in each direction considering four storm moving speeds, three rainfall depths and two storm ranges. The simulation results showed that, on both the hillslopes facing downstream (facing south) and in the main channel, the duration of the overland flow process under the upstream-moving storms was longer than that under the downstream-moving storms. Thus, the duration and volume of infiltration under upstream-moving storms were larger in these areas. For the Shejiagou catchment, as there are more hillslopes facing downstream, more infiltration occurred under the upstream-moving storms than the downstream-moving storms. Therefore, downstream-moving storms generated up to 69% larger total runoff and up to 351% more soil loss in the catchment than upstream-moving storms. The difference in infiltration between the storms moving upstream and downstream decreased as the storm moving speed increased. The relative difference in total runoff and sediment yield between the storms moving upstream and downstream decreased with increasing rainfall depth and storm speed. The results of this study revealed that the infiltration differences under moving storms largely influenced the total runoff and sediment yield at the catchment scale, which is of importance in runoff prediction and flood management. The infiltration differences may be a potential factor leading to different groundwater, vegetation cover and ecology conditions for the different sides of the hillslopes.     

Do not only connect: a model of infiltration‐excess overland flow based on simulation

The paper focusses on connectivity in the context of infiltration‐excess overland flow and its integrated response as slope‐base overland flow hydrographs. Overland flow is simulated on a sloping surface with some minor topographic expression and spatially differing infiltration rates. In each cell of a 128 × 128 grid, water from upslope is combined with incident rainfall to generate local overland flow, which is stochastically routed downslope, partitioning the flow between downslope neighbours. Simulations show the evolution of connectivity during simple storms. As a first approximation, total storm runoff is similar everywhere, discharge increasing proportionally with drainage area. Moderate differences in plan topography appear to have only a second‐order impact on hydrograph form and runoff amount. Total storm response is expressed as total runoff, runoff coefficient or total volume infiltrated; each plotted against total storm rainfall, and allowing variations in average gradient, overland flow roughness, infiltration rate and storm duration. A one‐parameter algebraic expression is proposed that fits simulation results for total runoff, has appropriate asymptotic behaviour and responds rationally to the variables tested. Slope length is seen to influence connectivity, expressed as a scale distance that increases with storm magnitude and can be explicitly incorporated into the expression to indicate runoff response to simple events as a function of storm size, storm duration, slope length and gradient. The model has also been applied to a 10‐year rainfall record, using both hourly and daily time steps, and the implications explored for coarser scale models. Initial trails incorporating erosion continuously update topography and suggest that successive storms produce an initial increase in erosion as rilling develops, while runoff totals are only slightly modified. Other factors not yet considered include the dynamics of soil crusting and vegetation growth. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating hydrologic responses to spatio‐temporal characteristics of storms using a Dynamic Moving Storm generator

A synthetic storm generator—Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS)—is developed in this study to represent spatio‐temporal variabilities of rainfall and storm movement in synthetic storms. Using an urban watershed as the testbed, the authors investigate the hydrologic responses to the DMS parameters and their interactions. In order to reveal the complex nature of rainfall–run‐off processes, previously simplified assumptions are relaxed in this study regarding (a) temporal variability of rainfall intensity and (b) time‐invariant flow velocity in channel routing. The results of this study demonstrate the significant contribution of storm moving velocity to the variation of peak discharge based on a global sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a pairwise sensitivity analysis is conducted to elucidate not only the patterns in individual contributions from parameters to hydrologic responses but also their interactions with storm moving velocity. The intricacies of peak discharges resulting from sensitivity analyses are then dissected into independent hydrologic metrics, that is, run‐off volume and standard deviation of run‐off timings, for deeper insights. It is confirmed that peak discharge is increased when storms travel downstream along the main channel at the speed that corresponds to a temporal superposition of run‐off. Spatial concentration of catchment rainfall is found to be a critical linkage through which characteristics of moving storms affect peak discharges. In addition, altering peak timing of rainfall intensity in conjunction with storm movement results in varied storm core locations in the channel network, which further changes the flow attenuation effects from channel routing. For future directions, the DMS generator will be embedded in a stochastic modelling framework and applied in rainfall/flow frequency analysis.     

Comparison of stormflow responses of surface‐mined and forested watersheds in the Appalachian Mountains,USA

The results of a hydrological analysis that was conducted as part of a larger, multifaceted, collaborative effort to quantify ecosystem functions in watersheds subjected to land‐use and land‐cover change are presented. The primary goal of the study was to determine whether a small watershed in the Appalachian region (USA) that was recently subjected to surface mining and reclamation practices produces stormflow responses to rain events that are different from those produced by a nearby reference watershed covered by young, second‐growth forest. Water balances indicated that runoff yields did not vary significantly between the two watersheds on an annual basis. Statistically significant differences (p?0·05) in runoff responses were observed on an event basis, however, with the mined/reclaimed watershed producing, on average (a) higher storm runoff coefficients (2·5×), (b) greater total storm runoff (3×), and (c) higher peak hourly runoff rates (2×) when compared with the reference watershed. Results of a unit hydrograph analysis also showed, unexpectedly, that the modelled unit responses of the two watersheds to effective rainfall pulses were similar, despite the noted differences in land cover. Differences in stormflow responses were thus largely explained by dramatic reductions in cumulative rates of rainfall abstraction (measured using infiltrometers) attributable to soil compaction during land reclamation. Additional field hydrological measurements on other mined watersheds will be needed to generalize our results, as well as to understand and predict the cumulative hydrological impacts of widespread surface mining in larger watersheds and river basins. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Overland flow generation in chaparral ecosystems: temporal and spatial variability

Fire is an important and natural process in the lifecycle of chaparral systems, removing old growth and recycling nutrients. Recent catastrophic wildfires in southern California chaparral have heightened concerns about increased runoff and nutrient export. The goal of this study was to improve understanding of how overland flow is generated in unburned and post‐fire chaparral watersheds. Samples of overland flow were collected from burned and unburned watersheds after rainfall events and multiple regression analysis was used to examine the influence of individual storm characteristics and system moisture on overland flow volume. The results indicate that variation in overland flow generation in the unburned watershed is best explained by storm size, while overland flow in the burned watershed was positively related to storm size and time between storms. These findings suggest that the burned system had decreased infiltration rates and increased soil water repellency. In contrast, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between overland flow 1 year after a fire against different system and precipitation factors revealed a negative correlation with drying period and a positive relationship with rainfall intensity, a combination that suggests reduced repellency. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Streamflow and suspended sediment yield following the 2000 Bobcat fire,Colorado

Postfire runoff and erosion are a concern, and more data are needed on the effects of wildfire at the watershed‐scale, especially in the Colorado Front Range. The goal of this study was to characterize and compare the streamflow and suspended sediment yield response of two watersheds (Bobcat Gulch and Jug Gulch) after the 2000 Bobcat fire. Bobcat Gulch had several erosion control treatments applied after the fire, including aerial seeding, contour log felling, mulching, and straw wattles. Jug Gulch was partially seeded. Study objectives were to: (1) measure precipitation, streamflow, and sediment yields; (2) assess the effect of rainfall intensity on peak discharges, storm runoff, and sediment yields; (3) evaluate short‐term hydrologic recovery. Two months after the fire, a storm with a maximum 30 min rainfall intensity I₃₀ of 42 mm h^?1 generated a peak discharge of 3900 l s^?1 km^?2 in Bobcat Gulch. The same storm produced less than 5 l s^?1 km^?2 in Jug Gulch, due to less rainfall and the low watershed response. In the second summer, storms with, I₃₀ of 23 mm h^?1 and 32 mm h^?1 generated peak discharges of 1100 l s^?1 km^?2 and 1700 l s^?1 km^?2 in the treated and untreated watersheds respectively. Maximum water yield efficiencies were 10% and 17% respectively, but 18 of the 23 storms returned ≤2% of the rainfall as runoff, effectively obscuring interpretation of the erosion control treatments. I₃₀ explained 86% of the variability in peak discharges, 74% of the variability in storm runoff, and >80% of the variability in sediment yields. Maximum single‐storm sediment yields in the second summer were 370 kg ha^?1 in the treated watershed and 950 kg ha^?1 in the untreated watershed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Basin rotation method for analyzing the directional influence of moving storms on basin response

Hydrologic responses to variations in storm direction provide useful information for the analysis and prediction of floods and the development of watershed management strategies. However, the prediction of hydrologic responses to changes in storm direction is a difficult task that requires meteorological simulations and extensive computation. It is also difficult to identify the center of rotation of a storm affecting a basin of interest. Therefore, we propose a simple approach of rotating the basin position relative to the storm within the rainfall–runoff simulation model instead of changing the pathway of the storm, which we term the basin rotation method (BRM). The proposed BRM was tested on four major typhoon events in South Korea. The results illustrated that the original basin orientation (i.e., before it was rotated) exhibits earlier and higher peak discharge and earlier recession compared to the basin after rotation. We conclude that the proposed method (BRM) is a viable alternative for use in assessing the directional influence of moving storms on floods caused by historical rather than hypothetical storm events.     

Following the curve? Reviewing the physical basis of the SCS curve number method for estimating storm runoff

Less attention has been paid to runoff generation from semi-arid than from humid-temperate catchments. The SCS curve number approach is simple to apply and widely used, but lacks physical underpinning. Here output from a runoff generation models is compared with data from field measurements, making use of 11 years data from rainfall and runoff events at the Sierra de Enguera Soil Erosion Experimental Station in Eastern Spain. Runoff from natural rainfall events was monitored for 10 years on bare plots of 1–16 m length. The largest storm event was of 142 mm, generating runoff of up to 115 mm on the smallest plots. The model presented simulates overland storm flow on a sloping rough and unvegetated surface, representing an area of 320 × 320 m. Green-Ampt infiltration constants are randomly assigned to each cell in a 128 × 128 grid, and rectangular storms applied at a range of total amounts and intensities to simulate runoff at each transect across the area. A simple algebraic expression is developed to estimate total runoff and storage in terms of storm size and duration, and plot length, with parameters that reflect infiltration behaviour, and this expression is compared with the SCS curve number approach. For the very largest storms, both expressions converge asymptotically towards 100% runoff, but the revised expression greatly improves estimates of runoff from smaller events. Output of these simulations is compared with measured storm runoff data on bare runoff plots at the Sierra de Enguera experimental Station in SE Spain and gives further support to the proposed expression for storm runoff.     

Rainfall–runoff responses on Arctic hillslopes underlain by continuous permafrost,North Slope,Alaska, USA

The Arctic hydrologic cycle is intensifying, as evidenced by increased rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and riverine discharge. However, the controls on water fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic systems in upland Arctic landscapes are poorly understood. Upland landscapes account for one third of the Arctic land surface and are often drained by zero‐order geomorphic flowpath features called water tracks. Previous work in the region attributed rapid runoff response at larger stream orders to water tracks, but models suggest water tracks are hydrologically disconnected from the surrounding hillslope. To better understand the role of water tracks in upland landscapes, we investigated the surface and subsurface hydrologic responses of 6 water tracks and their hillslope watersheds to natural patterns of rainfall, soil thaw, and drainage. Between storms, both water track discharge and the water table in the hillslope watersheds exhibited diel fluctuations that, when lagged by 5 hr, were temporally correlated with peak evapotranspiration rate. Water track soils remained saturated for more of the summer season than soils in their surrounding hillslope watersheds. When rainfall occurred, the subsurface response was nearly instantaneous, but the water tracks took significantly longer than the hillslopes to respond to rainfall, and longer than the responses previously observed in nearby larger order Arctic streams. There was also evidence for antecedent soil water storage conditions controlling the magnitude of runoff response. Based on these observations, we used a broken stick model to test the hypothesis that runoff production in response to individual storms was primarily controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent water storage conditions near the water track outlet. We found that the relative importance of the two factors varied by site, and that water tracks with similar watershed geometries and at similar landscape positions had similar rainfall–runoff model relationships. Thus, the response of terrestrial water fluxes in the upland Arctic to climate change depends on the non‐linear interactions between rainfall patterns and subsurface water storage capacity on hillslopes. Predicting these interactions across the landscape remains an important challenge.     

Use of the Connectivity of Runoff Model (CRUM) to investigate the influence of storm characteristics on runoff generation and connectivity in semi‐arid areas

Much attention has been given to the surface controls on the generation and transmission of runoff in semi‐arid areas. However, the surface controls form only one part of the system; hence, it is important to consider the effect that the characteristics of the storm event have on the generation of runoff and the transmission of flow across the slope. The impact of storm characteristics has been investigated using the Connectivity of Runoff Model (CRUM). This is a distributed, dynamic hydrology model that considers the hydrological processes relevant to semi‐arid environments at the temporal scale of a single storm event. The key storm characteristics that have been investigated are the storm duration, rainfall intensity, rainfall variability and temporal structure. This has been achieved through the use of a series of defined storm hydrographs and stochastic rainfall. Results show that the temporal fragmentation of high‐intensity rainfall is important for determining the travel distances of overland flow and, hence, the amount of runoff that leaves the slope as discharge. If the high‐intensity rainfall is fragmented, then the runoff infiltrates a short distance downslope. Longer periods of high‐intensity rainfall allow the runoff to travel further and, hence, become discharge. Therefore, storms with similar amounts of high‐intensity rainfall can produce very different amounts of discharge depending on the storm characteristics. The response of the hydrological system to changes in the rainfall characteristics can be explained using a four‐stage model of the runoff generation process. These stages are: (1) all water infiltrating, (2) the surface depression store filling or emptying without runoff occurring, (3) the generation and transmission of runoff and (4) the transmission of runoff without new runoff being generated. The storm event will move the system between the four stages and the nature of the rainfall required to move between the stages is determined by the surface characteristics. This research shows the importance of the variable‐intensity rainfall when modelling semi‐arid runoff generation. The amount of discharge may be greater or less than the amount that would have been produced if constant rainfall intensity is used in the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relative change in stream discharge from a tropical watershed improves predictions of fecal bacteria in near-shore environments

Statistical models poorly predict bacteria in near-shore environments of tropical islands due to inaccuracies in runoff and discharge characterization of storm events. Intense, short duration storms on small, steeply sloped watersheds produce high rates of runoff, resulting in rapid pulses of discharge that influence the physical and physiological conditions of the fate and transport of pathogens. As such, increasing rates of discharge are expected to have a different influence on sediment transport and pathogen load compared to decreasing rates of discharge. Regression modeling was used to examine the affect of antecedent streamflow on the interaction between environmental parameters and two fecal indicator bacteria, enterococci and Clostridium perfringens. Including the relative change in discharge incorporates a proximate representation of the energy available to transport particulates, improving predictions of near-shore water quality. Understanding factors that influence pathogen loads improves management of watersheds and protects public health.     

Sensitivity of runoff and soil erosion to climate change in two Mediterranean watersheds. Part II: assessing impacts from changes in storm rainfall,soil moisture and vegetation cover

The impacts of climate change on storm runoff and erosion in Mediterranean watersheds are difficult to assess due to the expected increase in storm frequency coupled with a decrease in total rainfall and soil moisture, added to positive or negative changes to different types of vegetation cover. This report, the second part of a two‐part article, addresses this issue by analysing the sensitivity of runoff and erosion to incremental degrees of change (from ? 20 to + 20%) to storm rainfall, pre‐storm soil moisture, and vegetation cover, in two Mediterranean watersheds, using the MEFIDIS model. The main results point to the high sensitivity of storm runoff and peak runoff rates to changes in storm rainfall (2·2% per 1% change) and, to a lesser degree, to soil water content (?1·2% per 1% change). Catchment sediment yield shows a greater sensitivity than within‐watershed erosion rates to both parameters: 7·8 versus 4·0% per 1% change for storm rainfall, and ? 4·9 versus ? 2·3% per 1% change for soil water content, indicating an increase in sensitivity with spatial scale due to changes to sediment connectivity within the catchment. Runoff and erosion showed a relatively low sensitivity to changes in vegetation cover. Finally, the shallow soils in one of the catchments led to a greater sensitivity to changes in storm rainfall and soil moisture. Overall, the results indicate that decreasing soil moisture levels caused by climate change could be sufficient to offset the impact of greater storm intensity in Mediterranean watersheds. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.