Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River,Thailand

Abstract

This study contributes to the comprehensive assessment of flood hazard and risk for the Phrae flood plain of the Yom River basin in northern Thailand. The study was carried out using a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS). The model was calibrated and verified using the observed rainfall and river flood data during flood seasons in 1994 and 2001, respectively. Flooding scenarios were evaluated in terms of flooding depth for events of 25-, 50-, 100- and 200-year return periods. An impact-based hazard estimation technique was applied to assess the degree of hazard across the flood plain. The results showed that 78% of the Phrae flood-plain area of 476 km² in the upper Yom River basin lies in the hazard zone of the 100-year return-period flood. Risk analyses were performed by incorporating flood hazard and the vulnerability of elements at risk. Based on relative magnitude of risk, flood-prone areas were divided into low-, moderate-, high- and severe-risk zones. For the 100-year return-period flood, the risk-free area was found to be 22% of the total flood plain, while areas under low, medium, high and severe risk were 33, 11, 28 and 6%, respectively. The outcomes are consistent with overall property damage recorded in the past. The study identifies risk areas for priority-based flood management, which is crucial when there is a limited budget to protect the entire risk zone simultaneously.

Citation Tingsanchali, T. & Karim, F. (2010) Flood-hazard assessment and risk-based zoning of a tropical flood plain: case study of the Yom River, Thailand. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 145–161.     

Hybrid method to update the design flood shape for spillway operation in a dam: case study of the Huites Dam,Mexico

To design and review the operation of spillways, it is necessary to estimate design hydrographs, considering their peak flow, shape and volume. A hybrid method is proposed that combines the shape of the design hydrograph obtained with the UNAM Institute of Engineering Method (UNAMIIM) with the peak flow and volume calculated from a bivariate method. This hybrid method is applied to historical data of the Huites Dam, Sinaloa, Mexico. The goal is to estimate return periods for the maximum discharge flows (that account for the damage caused downstream) and the maximum levels reached in the dam (measure of the hydrological dam safety) corresponding to a given spillway and its management policy. Therefore, to validate the method, the results obtained by the flood routing of the 50-year hydrograph are compared with those obtained by the flood routing of the three largest historical floods. Both maximum flow and elevation were in the range of values observed within 37.5–75 years corresponding to the length of the historical record.     

A new era of flood control strategies from the perspective of managing the 2020 Yangtze River flood

Flood control of the Yangtze River is an important part of China’s national water security.In July 2020,due to continuous heavy rainfall,the water levels along the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River and major lakes constantly exceeded the warning levels,in which Taihu Lake exceeded its highest safety water level and some stations of Poyang Lake reached their highest water levels in its history.In August 2020,another huge flood occurred in the Minjiang River and the Jialing River in the upper Yangtze River,and some areas of Chongqing Municipality and other cities along the rivers were inundated,resulting in great pressure on flood control and high disaster losses.The 2020 Yangtze River flood has received extensive media coverage and raised concerns on the roles of the Three Gorges Dam and other large reservoirs in flood control.Here we analyze the changes in the pattern of the Yangtze River flood control by comparing the strategies to tackle the three heavy floods occurring in 1954,1998,and 2020.We propose that the overall strategy of the Yangtze River flood control in the new era should adhere to the principle of"Integration of storage and drainage over the entire Yangtze River Basin,with draining floods downstream as the first priority"by using both engineering and non-engineering measures.On the basis of embankments,the engineering measures should use the Three Gorges Dam and other large reservoirs as the major regulatory means,promote the construction of key flood detention areas,keep the floodways clear,and maintain the ecosystem services of wetlands and shoals.In terms of non-engineering measures,we should strengthen adaptive flood risk management under climate change,standardize the use of lands in flood detention areas,give space to floods,and promote the implementation of flood risk maps and flood insurance policies.The ultimate goal of this new flood control system is to enhance the adaptability to frequent floods and increase the resilience to extreme flood disasters.     

Comparison of hydrodynamic models of different complexities to model floods with emergency storage areas

A flood emergency storage area (polder) is used to reduce the flood peak in the main river and hence, protect downstream areas from being inundated. In this study, the effectiveness of a proposed flood emergency storage area at the middle Elbe River, Germany in reducing the flood peaks is investigated using hydrodynamic modelling. The flow to the polders is controlled by adjustable gates. The extreme flood event of August 2002 is used for the study. A fully hydrodynamic 1D model and a coupled 1D–2D model are applied to simulate the flooding and emptying processes in the polders and flow in the Elbe River. The results obtained from the 1D and 1D–2D models are compared with respect to the peak water level reductions in the Elbe River and flow processes in the polders during their filling and emptying. The computational time, storage space requirements and modelling effort for the two models are also compared. It is concluded that a 1D model may be used to study the water level and discharge reductions in the main river while a 1D-2D model may be used when the study of flow dynamics in the polder is of particular interest. Further, a detailed sensitivity analysis of the 1D and 1D–2D models is carried out with respect to Manning's n values, DEMs of different resolutions, number of cross-sections used and the gate opening time as well as gate opening/closing duration. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of uncertainty in Digital Surface Models on the extent of inundated areas

The impact of uncertainty in ground elevation on the extent of areas that are inundated due to flooding is investigated. Land surface is represented through a Digital Surface Model (DSM). The effect of uncertainty in DSM is compared to that of the uncertainty due to rainfall. The Monte Carlo method is used to quantify the uncertainty. A typical photogrammetric procedure and conventional maps are used to obtain a reference DSM, later altered to provide DSMs of lower accuracy. Also, data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission are used. Floods are simulated in two stages. In the first stage, flood hydrographs for typical return periods are synthesized using generated storm hyetographs, the Soil Conservation Service–Curve Number method for effective rainfall, and the Soil Conservation Service synthetic unit hydrograph. In the second stage, hydrographs are routed via a one‐dimensional hydraulic model. Uncertainty in DSM is considered only in the second stage. Data from two real‐world basins in Greece are used. To characterize the inundated area, we employ the 90% quantile of the inundation extent and inundation topwidth for peak water level at specific river cross‐sections. For topwidths, apart from point estimates, also interval estimates are acquired using the bootstrap method. The effect of DSM uncertainty is compared to that for rainfall. Low uncertainty in DSM is found to widen the inundated area; whereas, the opposite occurred with high uncertainty. SRTM data proved unsuitable for our test basins and modelling context.     

Enhanced hysteresis of suspended sediment transport in response to upstream damming: An example of the middle Yangtze River downstream of the Three Gorges Dam

The peak in sediment transport in alluvial rivers generally lags behind the peak in discharge. It is thus not clear how the hysteresis in the sediment/discharge relationship may be impacted by damming, which can fundamentally alter the water and sediment regimes in the downstream reaches of the river. In this study, a total of 500 flood events in the Yichang–Chenglingji Reach (YCR) of the Middle Yangtze River immediately downstream of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) are analysed to study the impacts of dam operations on the hysteresis of suspended sediment transport. Sediment rating curves, hysteresis patterns, as well as lag times, are investigated to determine the relationship between suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and flow discharge (Q) at different temporal scales, from inter-annual to individual flood events, for the pre- and post-TGD period from 1992 to 2002 and from 2003 to 2017, respectively. The results showed that the TGD operation decreased the frequency and magnitude of floods. The decrease in peak flow and increase in base flow weakened the flood contribution to the annual discharge by nearly 20%. However, the relative suspended sediment load contribution during flood events was much higher than the discharge contribution, and was little impacted by the dam. At seasonal and monthly scales, more than 80% of the suspended sediment was transported by ~65% of the water discharge in the summer and early autumn. The monthly SSC–Q relationship changed from a figure-eight to an anti-clockwise pattern after the construction of the TGD. For single flood events, the TGD operations significantly modified the downstream SSC–Q hysteresis patterns, increasing the frequency of anti-clockwise loops and the lag time between peak Q and peak SSC. These adjustments were mainly caused by differences in the propagation velocities of flood and sediment waves and the sediment ‘storage–mobilization–depletion’ process, whereas the influence of lateral diversions was small. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洪泽湖历史洪水分析(1736-1992年)

根据１７３６－１９１１年文献记载的洪泽湖年最高水位及１９１４－１９９２年湖区水文测站的水位,流量资料,进行了长,短序列的入湖洪峰流量及不同时段洪量的频主分析,进而推求出不同重现期的设计入湖洪量和洪水年份相当的重现期,并分析洪水的灾害特征,结果：１）洪泽湖历史上洪水发生频繁,１７８６,１８５１,１９０６年均发生过特大洪水,高堰志桩分别至１６．３,２３．４,１６．１尺。２）１９５３年建库后,湖水位上升     

Nonstationarity-based evaluation of flood risk in the Pearl River basin: changing patterns,causes and implications

Nonstationary GEV-CDN models considering time as a covariate are built for evaluating the flood risk and failure risk of the major flood-control infrastructure in the Pearl River basin, China. The results indicate: (1) increasing peak flood flow is observed in the mainstream of the West River and North River basins and decreasing peak flood flow is observed in the East River basin; in particular, increasing peak flood flow is detected in the mainstream of the lower Pearl River basin and also in the Pearl River Delta region, the most densely populated region of the Pearl River basin; (2) differences in return periods analysed under stationarity and nonstationarity assumptions are found mainly for floods with return periods longer than 50 years; and (3) the failure risks of flood-control infrastructure based on failure risk analysis are higher under the nonstationarity assumption than under the stationarity assumption. The flood-control infrastructure is at higher risk of flood and failure under the influence of climate change and human activities in the middle and lower parts of Pearl River basin.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR G. Thirel     

INFLUENCE OF THE UPSTREAM RESERVOIRS ON THE ADJUSTMENT OF DOWNSTREAM ALLUVIAL CHANNEL

I. INTRODUCTIONThe Yellow River is a heavily sediment--laden river. The sediment load of the Yellow River ranks the first in the world while its annual runoff is only of medium size. Toharness the river, it is necessary to build reservoirs for regulating runoff to meet the demands of economic development. Since the founding of PRC in 1949, I S4 large and medium--sized reservoirs have been constructed on the main stem and the tributaries with atotal storage capacity of 84.5 billion m3.…     

Numerical simulation of laboratory experiments in detention pond routing with long rainfall duration

This paper establishes a numerical detention pond volume model based on the hydrological continuity equation and the Runge-Kutta numerical method. Experiments for the conditions of both steady and unsteady flow have been used to verify the model. In unsteady flow cases, the outflow hydrograph by numerical simulation are fairly consistent with experimental value. Both experimental and numerical results indicate that wider rectangular sharp-crested weirs or larger rectangular slot tend to induce greater outflow discharges, which undesirably cut down the detention volume. Experiments show that the necessary detention volume of rectangular slot is smaller than that of the rectangular sharp-crested weir for a constant flood peak reduction. That is, the rectangular slot is the recommended outflow device when flood peak reduction is the design criteria. The study also shows that necessary detention volume of the short rainfall duration is less than that of the long rainfall duration under constant allowable maximum discharge.     

DEVELOPMENT OF DETENTION VOLUME MODEL FOR DETENTION PONDS WITH LONG-DURATION RAINFALL

The detention pond is one of the crucial items in detention facilities. It may effectively alleviate the occurrence of peak discharge, control the center of flood flow, and reduce the amount of soil loss. The objective of this study is analyzing the detention volume change of a detention pond with long-duration rainfall under the known isosceles trapezoidal inflow hydrograph model. The volume change of detention, which is under the influences of a givenisosceles trapezoidal inflow hydrograph and the extent of peak attenuation, is investigated by using the non-dimensional detention theory and the related mathematical analyses. The minimum detention volume of a detention pond can therefore be calculated based on the estimated of volume change of detention. The proposed detention volume estimation model can be used for the design of detention of facilities during the hillside development.     

Assessment of flooding in urbanized ungauged basins: a case study in the Upper Tiber area,Italy

The reliability of a procedure for investigation of flooding into an ungauged river reach close to an urban area is investigated. The approach is based on the application of a semi‐distributed rainfall–runoff model for a gauged basin, including the flood‐prone area, and that furnishes the inlet flow conditions for a two‐dimensional hydraulic model, whose computational domain is the urban area. The flood event, which occurred in October 1998 in the Upper Tiber river basin and caused significant damage in the town of Pieve S. Stefano, was used to test the approach. The built‐up area, often inundated, is included in the gauged basin of the Montedoglio dam (275 km²), for which the rainfall–runoff model was adapted and calibrated through three flood events without over‐bank flow. With the selected set of parameters, the hydrological model was found reasonably accurate in simulating the discharge hydrograph of the three events, whereas the flood event of October 1998 was simulated poorly, with an error in peak discharge and time to peak of −58% and 20%, respectively. This discrepancy was ascribed to the combined effect of the rainfall spatial variability and a partial obstruction of the bridge located in Pieve S. Stefano. In fact, taking account of the last hypothesis, the hydraulic model reproduced with a fair accuracy the observed flooded urban area. Moreover, incorporating into the hydrological model the flow resulting from a sudden cleaning of the obstruction, which was simulated by a ‘shock‐capturing’ one‐dimensional hydraulic model, the discharge hydrograph at the basin outlet was well represented if the rainfall was supposed to have occurred in the region near the main channel. This was simulated by reducing considerably the dynamic parameter, the lag time, of the instantaneous unit hydrograph for each homogeneous element into which the basin is divided. The error in peak discharge and time to peak decreased by a few percent. A sensitivity analysis of both the flooding volume involved in the shock wave and the lag time showed that this latter parameter requires a careful evaluation. Moreover, the analysis of the hydrograph peak prediction due to error in rainfall input showed that the error in peak discharge was lower than that of the same input error quantity. Therefore, the obtained results allowed us to support the hypothesis on the causes which triggered the complex event occurring in October 1998, and pointed out that the proposed procedure can be conveniently adopted for flood risk evaluation in ungauged river basins where a built‐up area is located. The need for a more detailed analysis regarding the processes of runoff generation and flood routing is also highlighted. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DOWNVALLEY GRADIENTS IN FLOW PATTERNS,SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY IN A SMALL MACROTIDAL ESTUARY: DIPPER HARBOUR CREEK,NEW BRUNSWICK,CANADA

Dipper Harbour Creek's lower reaches run through a narrow salt marsh on the Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick, Canada. This 2 km long section of the creek constitutes an extreme example of a tide-dominated estuary exhibiting strong downvalley morphology and sedimentology gradients. Dipper Harbour Creek drains a basin of roughly 8.8 km², but except during the spring snowmelt freshet, tidal flow so overshadows freshwater flow within the salt marsh reach that the system essentially functions as a tidal creek. To identify and explain the main geomorphic processes controlling the creek system, records were collected in summer 1993 of tidal stage and velocity fluctuations, sand dune migration rates, bed material composition, channel cross-sectional geometry and channel sinuosity. Bed materials become progressively finer upvalley, with deposits of medium to coarse sands concentrated in the highly sinuous central reach of the creek during the summer. Current velocities within the creek are strongly flood-dominant, featuring a consistent low-stage peak in flood velocity, a secondary high-stage flood surge, and a weaker ebb peak occurring around bankfull stage. Under summer low freshwater discharge conditions, the predominant direction of bed sand transport is upvalley. The spring freshet, however, causes a major downvalley shift of sand deposits, suggesting a seasonal cycling of medium to coarse sands within Dipper Harbour Creek.     

Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information: application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin,China / Prévision d'écoulements saisonnier et maximum annuel à l'aide d'informations climatiques: application au Barrage des Trois Gorges dans le bassin du Fleuve Yangtze,Chine

Abstract

This paper explores the potential for seasonal prediction of hydrological variables that are potentially useful for reservoir operation of the Three Gorges Dam, China. The seasonal flow of the primary inflow season and the peak annual flow are investigated at Yichang hydrological station, a proxy for inflows to the Three Gorges Dam. Building on literature and diagnostic results, a prediction model is constructed using sea-surface temperatures and upland snow cover available one season ahead of the prediction period. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to estimate uncertainty in the parameters of the prediction model and to propagate these uncertainties to the predictand. The results show skill for both the seasonal flow and the peak annual flow. The peak annual flow model is then used to estimate a design flood (50-year flood or 2% exceedence probability) on a year-to-year basis. The results demonstrate the inter-annual variability in flood risk. The predictability of both the seasonal total inflow and the peak annual flow (or a design flood volume) offers potential for adaptive management of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir through modification of the operating policy in accordance with the year-to-year changes in these variables.     

Assessing the influence and distribution of shrimp pond effluent in a tidal mangrove creek in north-east Australia

Effluent from a land based shrimp farm was detected in a receiving creek as changes in physical, chemical and biological parameters. The extent and severity of these changes depended on farm operations. This assessment was conducted at three different stages of shrimp-pond maturity, including (1) when the ponds were empty, (2) full and (3) being harvested. Methods for assessing farm effluent in receiving waters included physical/chemical analyses of the water column, phytoplankton bioassays and nitrogen isotope signatures of marine flora. Comparisons were made with an adjacent creek that served as the farms intake creek and did not directly receive effluent. Physical/chemical parameters identified distinct changes in the receiving creek with respect to farm operations. Elevated water column NH(4)(+) (18.5+/-8.0 microM) and chlorophyll a concentrations (5.5+/-1.9 microg/l) were measured when the farm was in operation, in contrast to when the farm was inactive (1.3+/-0.3 microM and 1.2+/-0.6 microg/l, respectively). At all times, physical/chemical parameters at the mouth of the effluent creek, were equivalent to control values, indicating effluent was contained within the effluent-receiving creek. However, elevated delta(15)N signatures of mangroves (up to approximately 8 per thousand) and macroalgae (up to approximately 5 per thousand ) indicated a broader influence of shrimp farm effluent, extending to the lower regions of the farms intake creek. Bioassays at upstream sites close to the location of farm effluent discharge indicated that phytoplankton at these sites did not respond to further nutrient additions, however downstream sites showed large growth responses. This suggested that further nutrient loading from the shrimp farm, resulting in greater nutrient dispersal, will increase the extent of phytoplankton blooms downstream from the site of effluent discharge. When shrimp ponds were empty water quality in the effluent and intake creeks was comparable. This indicated that observed elevated nutrient and phytoplankton concentrations were directly attributable to farm operations.     

The resilience of logjams to floods

Logjams that span the bankfull channel strongly influence hydraulics and downstream fluxes of diverse materials. Several studies quantify the longitudinal distribution of channel-spanning logjams, but fewer studies examine changes in longitudinal distribution in response to disturbances such as floods. We use 10 years of annual surveys of a population of channel-spanning logjams along mountain streams in the Southern Rocky Mountains. Surveys from 2010 to 2019 bracket substantial interannual variability in the snowmelt peak flow as well as a rainfall flood in 2013. We characterised the number of logjams per unit length of valley (logjam distribution density) within and between reaches designated based on longitudinally consistent channel and valley geometry. Our primary objectives are to evaluate the influences on logjam distribution density of (i) spatial variations in valley and channel geometry and (ii) temporal variations in peak annual flow. We hypothesized that logjam distribution densities are resilient to disturbance at both spatial scales. At the creek scale, logjam distribution density correlates significantly with increasing ratio of floodplain width to channel width and wood piece length to channel width. Wide, low gradient reaches with greater distribution density exhibit greater interannual variation in distribution density. These reaches lost jams during the 2013 flood but returned to pre-flood distribution density values by the end of the study. The pattern of greater logjam distribution density in unconfined reaches relative to confined and partially confined reaches is also consistent over the period of the study. We interpret these results as indicating the resilience of logjam distributions to disturbance. The persistence of greater numbers of logjams in wide, low gradient reaches suggests that river restoration employing engineered logjams and wood reintroduction can focus most effectively on these reaches.     

Development of design flood hydrographs using probability density functions

Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to fit the shape of hydrographs and have been popularly used for the development of synthetic unit hydrographs by many hydrologists. Nevertheless, modelling the shapes of continuous stream flow hydrographs, which are probabilistic in nature, is rare. In the present study, a novel approach was followed to model the shape of stream flow hydrographs using PDF and subsequently to develop design flood hydrographs for various return periods. Four continuous PDFs, namely, two parameter Beta, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, were employed to fit the shape of the hydrographs of 22 years at a site of Brahmani River in eastern India. The shapes of the observed and PDF fitted hydrographs were compared and root mean square errors, error of peak discharge (EQ_P) and error of time to peak (ET_P) were computed. The best‐fitted shape and scale parameters of all PDFs were subjected to frequency analysis and the quartiles corresponding to 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year were estimated. The estimated parameters of each return period were used to develop the flood hydrographs for 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The peak discharges of the developed design flood hydrographs were compared with the design discharges estimated from the frequency analysis of 22 years of annual peak discharges at that site. Lognormal‐produced peak discharge was very close to the estimated design discharge in case of 20‐year flood hydrograph. On the other hand, peak discharge obtained using the Weibull PDF had close agreement with the estimated design discharge obtained from frequency analysis in case of 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The ranking of the PDFs based on estimation of peak of design flood hydrograph for 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods was found to have the following order: Weibull > Beta > Lognormal > Gamma. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Safety assessment for dams of the cascade reservoirs system of Lancang River in extreme situations

Numerous dams have been constructed in the midstream and downstream regions of Lancang River, which form a complex cascade reservoirs system. The safety of dams is critical for water resource management of the whole system. To check the safety of dams, this study used the MIKE 11 model to simulate flood routing along the Lancang River from Xiaowan dam to Jinghong dam under extreme situations of 100-, 500-, 1000-, 5000-, and 10,000-year design floods throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system. The design flood events used as the input for the MIKE 11 model contains the design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs and corresponding flood hydrographs of the intermediate areas. The design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs was obtained using the Equal Frequency Factor Method, and the corresponding flood hydrograph of the intermediate areas was obtained using the Equivalent Frequency Regional Composition Method. The results show that all dams are safe for the 100-, 500-, 1000-, and 5000-year design flood situations throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system, whereas the Manwan and Jinghong dams have a risk of overtopping under a 10,000-year design flood. The curves showing the relationship between the highest water level and return period for the dams are also presented.     

A two-dimensional dam-break flood plain model

A simple two-dimensional dam-break model is developed for flood plain study purposes. Both a finite difference grid and an irregular triangle element integrated finite difference formulation are presented. The governing flow equations are approximately solved as a diffusion model coupled to the equation of continuity. Application of the model to a hypothetical dam-break study indicates that the approach can be used to predict a two-dimensional dam-break flood plain over a broad, flat plain more accurately than a one-dimensional model, especially when the flow can break-out of the main channel and then return to the channel at other downstream reaches.     

Modelling detention basins measured from high‐resolution light detection and ranging data

The construction of stormwater detention basins is a best management practice to effectively control floods, to provide additional surface storage for excess floodwater and to compensate for the adverse effects of urban development. Traditional field‐based levelling survey methods are very time consuming and subject to human‐induced arbitrariness and error. This article presents an approach to modelling detention basins measured from light detection and ranging remote sensing data. A case study is illustrated by using the White Oak Bayou watershed of Harris County, Texas. The storage–stage curve obtained from the volumetric analysis is used in a modified detention basins routing model, which was developed by adding the weir structure control to the traditional hydrologic reservoir routing equations. The model simulation showed that the peak flow of the synthetic 100‐year reoccurrence event was effectively reduced and delayed by the detention basins. The comparison with the simulation results from the traditional reservoir routing model suggested that previous studies using the reservoir routing model were likely to underestimate the flood reduction effect of detention basins. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters showed that the detention basin design and evaluation should pay more attention on the weir height and river channel's roughness. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.