Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for the northwestern portion of the state of Gujarat, India

We test the sensitivity of seismic hazard to three fault source models for the northwestern portion of Gujarat, India. The models incorporate different characteristic earthquake magnitudes on three faults with individual recurrence intervals of either 800 or 1600 years. These recurrence intervals imply that large earthquakes occur on one of these faults every 266–533 years, similar to the rate of historic large earthquakes in this region during the past two centuries and for earthquakes in intraplate environments like the New Madrid region in the central United States. If one assumes a recurrence interval of 800 years for large earthquakes on each of three local faults, the peak ground accelerations (PGA; horizontal) and 1-Hz spectral acceleration ground motions (5% damping) are greater than 1 g over a broad region for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years' hazard level. These probabilistic PGAs at this hazard level are similar to median deterministic ground motions. The PGAs for 10% in 50 years' hazard level are considerably lower, generally ranging between 0.2 g and 0.7 g across northwestern Gujarat. Ground motions calculated from our models that consider fault interevent times of 800 years are considerably higher than other published models even though they imply similar recurrence intervals. These higher ground motions are mainly caused by the application of intraplate attenuation relations, which account for less severe attenuation of seismic waves when compared to the crustal interplate relations used in these previous studies. For sites in Bhuj and Ahmedabad, magnitude (M) 7 3/4 earthquakes contribute most to the PGA and the 0.2- and 1-s spectral acceleration ground motion maps at the two considered hazard levels.     

Plate subduction,and generation of earthquakes and magmas in Japan as inferred from seismic observations: An overview

A dense nationwide seismic network recently constructed in Japan has been yielding large volumes of high-quality data that have made it possible to investigate the seismic structure in the Japanese subduction zone with unprecedented resolution. In this article, recent studies on the subduction of the Philippine Sea and Pacific plates beneath the Japanese Islands and the mechanism of earthquake and magma generation associated with plate subduction are reviewed. Seismic tomographic studies have shown that the Philippine Sea plate subducting beneath southwest Japan is continuous throughout the entire region, from Kanto to Kyushu, without disruption or splitting even beneath the Izu Peninsula as suggested in the past. The contact of the Philippine Sea plate with the Pacific plate subducting below has been found to cause anomalously deep interplate and intraslab earthquake activity in Kanto. Detailed waveform inversion studies have revealed that the asperity model is applicable to interplate earthquakes. Analyses of dense seismic and GPS network data have confirmed the existence of episodic slow slip accompanied in many instances by low-frequency tremors/earthquakes on the plate interface, which are inferred to play an important role in stress loading at asperities. High-resolution studies of the spatial variation of intraslab seismicity and the seismic velocity structure of the slab crust strongly support the dehydration embrittlement hypothesis for the generation of intraslab earthquakes. Seismic tomography studies have shown that water released by dehydration of the slab and secondary convection in the mantle wedge, mechanically induced by slab subduction, are responsible for magma generation in the Japanese islands. Water of slab origin is also inferred to be responsible for large anelastic local deformation of the arc crust leading to inland crustal earthquakes that return the arc crust to a state of spatially uniform deformation.     

Slow subduction of old lithosphere in the lesser antilles

The Lesser Antilles subduction zone is an extreme case of the subduction of old (~ 90 m.y.) lithosphere at a slow (~ 2 cm/y) convergence rate. Focal mechanisms of the largest earthquakes in the area have been obtained using body and surface wave data. During the time period (1950–1978) studied the subduction seismicity appears to represent primarily intraplate rather than interplate deformation. All three large (magnitude seven) earthquakes were from intraplate normal faults; no large thrust faulting earthquakes and few small ones occurred. These observations suggest that the plate boundary is largely decoupled, that subduction is at least partially aseismic, and that the downgoing slab is in a state of extension.     

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Oman coast from submarine earthquakes in the Makran subduction zone

The Sultanate of Oman is among the Indian Ocean countries that were subjected to at least two confirmed tsunamis during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the 1945 tsunami due to an earthquake in the Makran subduction zone in the Sea of Oman (near-regional field tsunami) and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, caused by an earthquake from the Andaman Sumatra subduction zone (far - field tsunami). In this paper, we present a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for the entire coast of Oman from tectonic sources generated along the Makran subduction zone. The tsunami hazard is assessed taking into account the contribution of small- and large-event magnitudes. Results of the earthquake recurrence rate studies and the tsunami numerical modeling for different magnitudes were used through a logic-tree to estimate the tsunami hazard probabilities. We derive probability hazard exceedance maps for the Omani coast considering the exposure times of 100, 250, 500, and 1000 years. The hazard maps consist of computing the likelihood that tsunami waves exceed a specific amplitude. We find that the probability that a maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the coast of Oman reaches, respectively, 0.7 and 0.85 for 100 and 250 exposure times, and it is up to 1 for 500 and 1000 years of exposure times. These probability values decrease significantly toward the southern coast of Oman where the tsunami impact, from the earthquakes generated at Makran subduction zone, is low.     

A Study of Seismicity and Earthquake Hazard at the Proposed Kalabsha Dam Site,Aswan, Egypt

High and Aswan Dams Authority (HADA) proposed a plan aiming at constructing a rockfill dam in the Kalabsha area, about 60 km south of Aswan High Dam. The aim of this dam is to restrain the overflow of water to the Kalabsha Valley for keeping one billion cubic meters from being lost due to seepage and evaporation. The safety of dams during earthquakes is extremely important because failure of such a structure may have disastrous consequences on life and property. Therefore, different factors were considered as part of a site assessment. Five seismic source zones, close enough to the site to give rise to potentially damaging earthquake ground motions, were identified. Seven active faults that have the potential for producing significant earthquakes and that pass through or near the dam site were also identified. The earthquake loading represented by ground motions at the site was evaluated. Probabilistic seismic hazard procedures were used for assessing the earthquake loading at six individual sites using Area-and Line-Source Models (ASM & LSM). The ASM is based on current observed seismicity, whereas the LSM is based on geological slip rates. The output represents the expected acceleration amplitude with 90 percent probability of not being exceeded in exposure times of 20, 50, and 100 years. The results from the two models appear to be different, the expected ground motions from ASM were twice as high as expected from LSM. This difference is due to the load of the Aswan reservoir (Nasser Lake) triggering earthquakes on those parts of the faults that lie under the lake at Kalabsha area. The hazard at the selected sites is given by the hazard curve that is represented by the relationship between the peak ground acceleration and its annual exceedance probability. By comparing the curves for the six individual sites for the same source model, it can be concluded that the potential ground acceleration level for all the sites is almost the same. Considering the mean results from the two models, the annual exceedance probability of the expected ground acceleration from ASM is approximately ten times higher than the annual exceedance probability from LSM.Since ASM is based on current seismicity, it is more appropriate forrepresenting the actual hazard for the dam site.     

青藏高原板内地震震源深度分布规律及其成因

青藏高原板内地震以浅源地震为主, 下地壳基本上没有地震, 地震震源多集中在15~40 km的深度范围, 主要在中地壳内, 呈似层状弥散分布.其中30~33 km深度是一个优势层, 与壳内分层有关.总体上青藏高原南、北部的震源面略呈相向倾斜特征.70~100 km深度区间出现了比较集中的震级较小的地震, 可能与壳幔过渡带的拆离作用有关.高原内部的正断层系与板内地震密切相关, 是板内浅源地震的主控构造.总之, 青藏高原地震震源沿着活动的上地壳脆性层与软弱层之间的脆-韧性过渡带分布.这些板内地震活动属于大陆动力学过程, 与板块碰撞和板块俯冲无关.初步认为青藏高原浅层到深层多震层的成因分别是韧性基底与脆性盖层、韧性下地壳与脆性上地壳、韧性下地壳与脆性上地幔的韧-脆性转换、拆离和解耦的产物.      

孕震构造块体与相应地震区划分方法

可靠地划分地震区可奠定地震预测与地震危险性评价的地质基础,具有十分重要的意义。笔者等通过研究分析指出板内孕震构造块体侧向边界可由区域性大断层或由区域性大断层与板块边界界定,底边界为康拉德面或低速高导层;板间孕震构造块体为俯冲板块,可由区域性大断层和(或)板块边界约束;在同一个孕震构造块体和同一轮地震周期的地震具有内在联系。因此,地震区可定义为代表相应孕震构造块体地震活动的区域,其可表征该块体内源自锁固段破裂的地震活动。基于笔者等提出的孕震构造块体和相应地震区边界确定原则,把全球两大地震带(环太平洋地震带和欧亚地震带)划分为62个地震区;每个地震区的分区方案均通过了多锁固段脆性破裂理论的检验,这说明方案可靠。进而,笔者等归纳总结了地震区划分方法。     

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Based on Area Source Model and Seismicity Data

A global seismic hazard assessment was conducted using the probabilistic approach in conjunction with a modified means of evaluating the seismicity parameters. The earthquake occurrence rate function was formulated for area source cells from recent instrumental earthquake catalogs. For the statistical application of the G–R relation of each source cell, the upper- and lower-bound magnitudes were determined from, respectively, historical earthquake data using a Kernel smoothing operator and detection thresholds of recent catalogs. The seismic hazard at a particular site was obtained by integrating the hazard contribution from influencing cells, and the results were combined with the Poisson distribution to obtain the seismic hazard in terms of the intensity at 10% probability of exceedance for the next 50 years. The seismic hazard maps for three countries, constructed using the same method, agree well with the existing maps obtained by different methods. The method is applicable to both oceanic and continental regions, and for any specific duration of time. It can be used for those regions without detailed geological information or where the relation between existing faults and earthquake occurrence is not clear.     

Rupture lengths of intraplate earthquakes in Brazil determined by relative location of aftershocks: Evidence for depth dependence of stress drops

Whether intraplate earthquakes have different average source properties, compared to interplate events, has been long debated. It has been proposed that intraplate events tend to rupture smaller areas with higher stress drops, compared to the average interplate earthquake. Here we estimate the rupture lengths of several Brazilian earthquakes by accurately locating their immediate aftershocks. The sparsity of stations in low-seismicity regions, such as Brazil, hinders accurate epicentral determination. We use cross-correlation of P, S and Lg waves to accurately locate the aftershocks relative to a reference event. In several cases, it was possible to infer the rupture length by the distribution of the early aftershocks; with the later aftershocks tending to span a larger area. We studied six different aftershock sequences using regional stations up to several hundred km distance. The mainshock occurs close to the foreshocks, which act as triggers to the main rupture. The immediate aftershocks tend to occur in a circle around a central (presumably stress-free) zone, which we interpret as the rupture of the mainshock. Published data from other events, based mainly on local networks, were added to provide an empirical relationship between rupture length and magnitude. These data suggest that stress-drops in Brazil vary mostly between 0.1 and 10 MPa, a similar range to many other studies worldwide. However, the mean stress drop (about 1 MPa) is smaller than the mean values of both interplate and intraplate events globally (mostly between 2 and 10 MPa). A possible dependence of stress drops with hypocentral depth may explain this difference: Brazilian intraplate earthquakes tend to be shallower than most other mid plate regions giving rise to smaller stress drops, on average. This result has important implications for seismic hazard estimation when GMPE equations from other intraplate regions are used in Brazil.     

地震动力学:震源分布与岩石圈流变特性(英文)

地震震源分布强烈依赖于构造环境的温度和压力条件。震源机制可使大陆地壳脆性-韧性转换带(下部稳定性过渡边界)的温压条件复杂化。该过渡边界伴随速度弱化作用(有震活动)向速度强化作用(无震活动)的转化。在岩石圈流变和壳幔动力学的基础上研究了与板块边界有关的地震活动,包括板缘地震和俯冲板片地震。俯冲带板缘地震的深度分布受约于脆性摩擦动力机制,而摩擦剪切机制不能满意地解释深震活动,包括俯冲板片地震。这是因为深震震源机制可能与高压、高温条件下的固一固相变有关,而用脆性破裂或摩擦作用来解释就不近合理。以理论与实验研究为依据,本文对与震源物理和震源分布有关的岩石圈流变特性进行了较为深入的论述。     

Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java islands and microzonation study of Jakarta city,Indonesia

This paper presents the development of spectral hazard maps for Sumatra and Java islands, Indonesia and microzonation study for Jakarta city. The purpose of this study is to propose a revision of the seismic hazard map in Indonesian Seismic Code SNI 03-1726-2002. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented in the analysis by considering the recent seismic activities around Java and Sumatra. The seismic hazard analysis was carried out using 3-dimension (3-D) seismic source models (fault source model) using the latest research works regarding the tectonic setting of Sumatra and Java. Two hazard levels were analysed for representing 10% and 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 years ground motions for Sumatra and Java. Peak ground acceleration contour maps for those two hazard levels and two additional macrozonation maps for 10% PE in 50 years were produced during this research. These two additional maps represent short period (0.2 s) and long-period (1.0 s) spectra values at the bedrock. Microzonation study is performed in order to obtain ground motion parameters such as acceleration, amplification factor and response spectra at the surface of Jakarta. The analyses were carried out using nonlinear approach. The results were used to develop contour of acceleration at the surface of Jakarta. Finally, the design response spectra for structural design purposes are proposed in this study.     

Seismogenic structures along continental convergent zones: from oblique subduction to mature collision

We summarize seismogenic structures in four regions of active convergence, each at a different stage of the collision process, with particular emphases on unusual, deep-seated seismogenic zones that were recently discovered. Along the eastern Hellenic arc near Crete, an additional seismogenic zone seems to occur below the seismogenic portion of the interplate thrust zone—a configuration found in several other oblique subduction zones that terminate laterally against collision belts. The unusual earthquakes show lateral compression, probably reflecting convergence between the subducting lithosphere's flank and the collision zone nearby. Along oblique zones of recent collision, the equivalence between space and time reveals the transition from subduction to full collision. In particular, intense seismicity beneath western Taiwan indicates that along the incipient zone of arc–continent collision, major earthquakes occur along high-angle reverse faults that reach deep into the crust or even the uppermost mantle. The seismogenic structures are likely to be reactivated normal faults on the passive continental margin of southeastern China. Since high-angle faults are ineffective in accommodating horizontal motion, it is not surprising that in the developed portion of the central Taiwan orogen (<5 Ma), seismogenic faulting occurs mainly along moderate-dipping (20–30°) thrusts. This is probably the only well-documented case of concurrent earthquake faulting on two major thrust faults, with the second seismogenic zone reaching down to depths of 30 km. Furthermore, the dual thrusts are out-of-sequence, being active in the hinterland of the deformation front. Along the mature Himalayan collision zone, where collision initiated about 50 Ma ago, current data are insufficient to distinguish whether most earthquakes occurred along multiple, out-of-sequence thrusts or along a major ramp thrust. Intriguingly, a very active seismic zone, including a large (M_w=6.7) earthquake in 1988, occurs at depths near 50 km beneath the foreland. Such a configuration may indicate the onset of a crustal nappe, involving the entire cratonic crust. In all cases of collision discussed here, the basal decollement, a key feature in the critical taper model of mountain building, appears to be aseismic. It seems that right at the onset of collision, earthquakes reflect reactivation of high-angle faults. For mature collision belts, earthquake faulting on moderate-dipping thrust accommodates a significant portion of convergence—a process involving the bulk of crust and possibly the uppermost mantle.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111001289

The disastrous M_w 9.3(seismic moment 1.0×10³⁰ dyn/cm) earthquake that struck northwest Sumatra on 26 December 2004 and triggered～30 m high tsunami has rejuvenated the quest for identifying the forcing behind subduction related earthquakes around the world.Studies reveal that the strongest part（elastic core） of the oceanic lithosphere lie between 20 and 60 km depth beneath the upper （～7 km thick） crustal layer,and compressive stress of GPa order is required to fail the rock-layers within the core zone.Here we present evidences in favor of an intraplate origin of mega-earthquakes right within the strong core part（at the interface of semi-brittle and brittle zone）,and propose an alternate model exploring the flexing zone of the descending lithosphere as the nodal area for major stress accumulation. We believe that at high confining pressure and elevated temperature,unidirectional cyclic compressive stress loading in the flexing zone results in an increase of material yield strength through strain hardening, which transforms the rheology of the layer from semi-brittle to near-brittle state.The increased compressive stress field coupled with upward migration of the neutral surface（of zero stress fields） under noncoaxial deformation triggers shear crack.The growth of the shear crack is initially confined in the near-brittle domain,and propagates later through the more brittle crustal part of the descending oceanic lithosphere in the form of cataclastic failure.     

地震动力学与板块构造:地震灾害评估

作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

Seismic hazard at a triple plate junction: the state of Chiapas (México)

The state of Chiapas (SE México) conforms a territory of complex tectonics and high seismic activity. The interaction among the Cocos, North American and Caribbean tectonic plates, as well as the active crustal deformation inside Chiapas, determines a variety of seismogenic sources of distinct characteristics and particular strong ground motion attenuation. This situation makes the assessment of seismic hazard in the region a challenging task. In this work, we follow the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, starting from the compilation of an earthquake catalogue, and the definition of seismogenic source-zones based on the particular seismotectonics of the region: plate-subduction-related sources (interface and intraslab zones), active crustal deformation zones and the shear zone between the North American and Caribbean plates formed by the Motagua, Polochic and Ixcán faults. The latter source is modelled in two different configurations: one single source-zone and three distinct ones. We select three ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) recommended for South and Central America, plus two Mexican ones. We combine the GMPEs with the source-zone models in a logic tree scheme and produce hazard maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for the 500-, 1000- and 2500-year return periods, as well as uniform hazard spectra for the towns of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Tapachula and San Cristóbal. We obtain higher values in comparison with previous seismic hazard studies and particularly much higher than the output of the Prodisis v.2.3 software for seismic design in México. Our results are consistent with those of neighbouring Guatemala obtained in a recent study for Central America.

     

Triggered/migrated seismicity due to the 2001 M w7.7 Bhuj earthquake, Western India

Paper describes triggered seismicity to 200?km distance and for a decade due to the 2001 M _w7.7 Bhuj earthquake. The Kachchh region is seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World due to the occurrence of two large earthquakes 1819 (M _w7.8) and 2001 (M _w7.7). Though, it has high hazard but was known to have low seismicity in view of the occurrence of fewer smaller shocks. However, the status seems to have changed after 2001. Besides the strong aftershock activity for over a decade, seismicity has spread to nearby faults in Kachchh peninsula and at several places southward for 200?km distance in Saurashtra peninsula. Beyond the rupture zone of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, more than 40 mainshocks of M _w?~?3?C5 have occurred at 20 different locations, which is unusual. The increased seismicity is inferred to be caused by stress perturbation due to the 2001 Bhuj earthquake by viscoelastic process. In Saurashtra, over and above the viscoelastic stress increase, the transient stress increase by water table rise in monsoons seems to be affecting the timing of mainshocks and associated sequences of earthquakes.     

Seismic source modeling and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for Bangladesh using background seismicity, crustal fault, and subduction zone source models. The latest ground...     

PSHA of Van province for performance assessment using spectrally matched strong ground motion records

Within the framework of the performance based earthquake engineering, site specific earthquake spectra for Van province has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region. The probabilistic seismic hazard curves were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2, 10 and 50% in 50 yrs period. The obtained results are compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code (2007), section 7. The acceleration response spectrums obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are matched to adjust earthquake accelerograms recorded during the 2011 Van earthquakes by using SeismoMatch v2.0 software. The aim of this procedure is to obtain a set of reasonable earthquake input motions for the seismic evaluation of existing buildings.     

Probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis for design criteria development of a coastal area in the city of Banda Aceh

Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M _w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas.