Comparison of ground motions from the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake with the next generation attenuation ground motion prediction equations

A total of 144 free-field ground motions with closest site-to-rupture distances (R_rup) less than 200 km recorded during the 2010 M_w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake are used to investigate predictive capabilities of the next generation attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE). The NGA GMPEs underpredict observed spectral accelerations at sites with shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the site (V_s30) between 180 and 366 m/s with R_rup from about 10 to 50 km and overpredict at sites with R_rup from about 50 to 200 km. Intra-event residuals of the NGA GMPEs exhibit a noticeable negative trend for peak ground acceleration and 0.3, 1.0, and 2.0 s periods. Comparison of the inter-event residual between the 2010 M_w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake and the NGA dataset reveals that short-period inter-event residuals from the 2010 M_w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake is within the scatter of inter-event residuals from the NGA dataset but long-period inter-event residuals do not appear within of the scatter of inter-event residuals from the NGA dataset. Spectral accelerations predicted by the NGA GMPEs are generally unbiased against V_s30 and periods of less than 4.0 s. Observed spectral accelerations show a stronger V_s30 dependence for both short and long periods compared with the NGA GMPEs. The Boore and Atkinson (Earthq Spectra 24(1):99–138, 2008) and Chiou and Youngs (Earthq Spectra 24(1):173–215, 2008) GMPEs perform better in predicting observed short-period spectral accelerations at the sites with V_s30 between 180 and 250 m/s than the Abrahamson and Silva (Earthq Spectra 24(1):67–97, 2008) and Campbell and Bozorgnia (Earthq Spectra 24(1):139–171, 2008) GMPEs.     

Real-time risk assessment in seismic early warning and rapid response: a feasibility study in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake’s location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin (M?=?8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk (M?=?6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482–1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679–694, 2002) approach for estimating intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573–586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively.     

Focal Mechanism Solutions of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake sequence from P-wave polarities and SH/P amplitude ratios: new results and implications

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a major intraplate earthquake with M _w 7.9, occurred on the slowly deforming Longmenshan fault. To better understand the causes of this devastating earthquake, we need knowledge of the regional stress field and the underlying geodynamic processes. Here, we determine focal mechanism solutions (FMSs) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake sequence (WES) using both P-wave first-motion polarity data and SH/P amplitude ratio (AR) data. As P-wave polarities are more reliable information, they are given priority over SH/P AR, the latter of which are used only when the former has loose constraint on the FMSs. We collect data from three categories: (1) permanent stations deployed by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA); (2) the Western Sichuan Passive Seismic Array (WSPSA) deployed by Institute of Geology, CEA; (3) global stations from Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology. Finally, 129 events with magnitude over M _s 4.0 in the 2008 WES are identified to have well-constrained FMSs. Among them, 83 are well constrained by P-wave polarities only as shown by Cai et al. (Earthq Sci 24(1):115–125, 2011), and the rest of which are newly constrained by incorporating SH/P AR. Based on the spatial distribution and FMSs of the WES, we draw following conclusions: (1) the principle compressional directions of most FMSs of the WES are subhorizontal, generally in agreement with the conclusion given by Cai et al. (2011) but with a few modifications that the compressional directions are WNW–ESE around Wenchuan and ENE–WSW around Qingchuan, respectively. The subhorizontal compressional direction along the Longmenshan fault from SW to NE seems to have a left-lateral rotation, which agrees well with regional stress field inverted by former researchers (e.g., Xu et al., Acta Seismol Sin 30(5), 1987; Acta Geophys Sin 32(6), 1989; Cui et al., Seismol Geol 27(2):234–242, 2005); (2) the FMSs of the events not only reflected the regional stress state of the Longmenshan region, but also were obviously controlled by the faults to some extent, which was pointed out by Cai et al. (2011) and Yi et al. (Chin J Geophys 55(4):1213–1227, 2012); (3) while the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and some of its strong aftershocks released most of the elastic energy accumulated on the Longmenshan fault, some other aftershocks seem to occur just for releasing the elastic energy promptly created by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and some of its strong aftershocks. (4) Our results further suggest that the Longmenshan fault from Wenchuan to Beichuan was nearly fully destroyed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and accordingly propose that there is less probability for great earthquakes in the middle part of the Longmenshan fault in the near future, although there might be a barrier to the southwest of Wenchuan and it is needed to pay some attention on it in the near future.     

Ground motion simulations for the 23 October 2011 Van,Eastern Turkey earthquake using stochastic finite fault approach

The 23 October 2011 Van (Mw 7.1) earthquake that occurred in Eastern Turkey resulted in heavy damage particularly in the city of Van and town of Ercis. This paper presents ground motion simulations of Van earthquake by using stochastic finite fault method (EXSIM, Motazedian and Atkinson in Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005; Boore in Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3202–3216, 2009) that provides a simple and effective tool to generate high frequency strong motion. The input parameters related to source, path, and site effects are calibrated on the basis of minimizing the error functions between simulations and observations both in time and frequency domain. Validated model parameters are used to produce synthetics in regional extent with the aim of understanding the level and distribution of the ground shaking particularly in the near fault region where no recordings are available within the 40 km of the epicenter. This paper evaluates the effect of two different slip models on ground motion intensity measures over the area of interest and addresses the variability in the near fault region associated with the source effect. The synthetics are compared with the corresponding estimations of ground motion prediction equations by Boore and Atkinson (Earthq Spectra 24:99–138, 2008), Akkar and Bommer (Seismol Res Lett 81:195–206, 2010) and Akkar and Cagnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100:2978–2995, 2010). Our results indicate that despite the limitation of the method for incorporating the directivity effect and inadequate representation of the soil conditions at the individual stations, a satisfactory match between synthetics and observations are obtained both in time and frequency domain. Spatial distributions of the synthetics in regional level also show reasonable correlation with ground motion prediction equations and damage observations.     

Scaling Transition in Earthquake Sources: A Possible Link Between Seismic and Laboratory Measurements

We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M _W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M _W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M _W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M _W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M _W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M _W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M _W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.     

Radiated Energy of Great Earthquakes from Teleseismic Empirical Green’s Function Deconvolution

We expand on the empirical Green’s function deconvolution method of Ide et al. (2011) to estimate radiated energy for the six largest earthquakes worldwide over the last 10 years: 2011 M _w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, 2004 M _w 9.1 Sumatra, 2010 M _w 8.8 Maule, 2005 M _w 8.7 Nias, 2007 M _w 8.5 Bengkulu, and 2012 M _w 8.6 off-Sumatra. Deconvolution of P, SV and SH components gives consistent energy results that are comparable to estimates found independently by other researchers. Apparent stress for the five great thrust earthquakes is between 0.4 and 0.8 MPa, while the 2012 off-Sumatra strike-slip earthquake has a higher apparent stress of 3 MPa, which is consistent with other studies that find a tendency for strike-slip events to be more energetic. Our results are within the spread of apparent stress from the wider global earthquake population over a large magnitude range. The azimuthal distribution of energy in each case shows signs of directivity, and in some cases, shows less energy radiated in the trench-ward direction, which may suggest enhanced tsunami potential. We find that eGfs as small as ~M 6.5 can be used for teleseismic deconvolution, and that an eGf-mainshock magnitude difference of 1.5 units yields stable results. This implies that M 8 is the minimum mainshock size for which teleseismic eGf deconvolution will work well. We propose that a database of eGf events could be used to calculate radiated energy and apparent stress of great, hazardous events in near real time, i.e., promptly enough that it could contribute to rapid response measures.     

Locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in Central Asia from seismic intensity data

We apply the Bakun and Wentworth (Bull Seism Soc Am 87:1502–1521, 1997) method to determine the location and magnitude of earthquakes occurred in Central Asia using MSK-64 intensity assignments. The attenuation model previously derived and validated by Bindi et al. (Geophys J Int, 2013) is used to analyse 21 earthquakes that occurred over the period 1885–1964, and the estimated locations and magnitudes are compared to values available in literature. Bootstrap analyses are performed to estimate the confidence intervals of the intensity magnitudes, as well as to quantify the location uncertainty. The analyses of seven significant earthquakes for the hazard assessment are presented in detail, including three large historical earthquakes that struck the northern Tien-Shan between the end of the nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth centuries: the 1887, M 7.3 Verny, the 1889, M 8.3 Chilik and the 1911, M 8.2 Kemin earthquakes. Regarding the 1911, Kemin earthquake the magnitude values estimated from intensity data are lower (i.e. MI_LH?=?7.8 and MI_W?=?7.6 considering surface wave and moment magnitude, respectively) than the value M?=?8.2 listed in the considered catalog. These values are more in agreement with the value M _S?=?7.8 revised by Abe and Noguchi (Phys Earth Planet In, 33:1–11, 1983b) for the surface wave magnitude. For the Kemin earthquake, the distribution of the bootstrap solutions for the intensity centre reveal two minima, indicating that the distribution of intensity assignments do not constrain a unique solution. This is in agreement with the complex source rupture history of the Kemin earthquake, which involved several fault segments with different strike orientations, dipping angles and focal mechanisms (e.g. Delvaux et al. in Russ Geol Geophys 42:1167–1177, 2001; Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). Two possible locations for the intensity centre are obtained. The first is located on the easternmost sub-faults (i.e. the Aksu and Chon-Aksu segments), where most of the seismic moment was released (Arrowsmith et al. in Eos Trans Am Geophys Union 86(52), 2005). The second location is located on the westernmost sub-faults (i.e. the Dzhil'-Aryk segment), close to the intensity centre location obtained for the 1938, M 6.9 Chu-Kemin earthquake (MI_LH?=?6.9 and MI_W?=?6.8).     

Ground motion estimation in Delhi from postulated regional and local earthquakes

Ground motions are estimated at 55 sites in Delhi, the capital of India from four postulated earthquakes (three regional M _w?=?7.5, 8.0, and 8.5 and one local). The procedure consists of (1) synthesis of ground motion at a hard reference site (NDI) and (2) estimation of ground motion at other sites in the city via known transfer functions and application of the random vibration theory. This work provides a more extensive coverage than earlier studies (e.g., Singh et al., Bull Seism Soc Am 92:555–569, 2002; Bansal et al., J Seismol 13:89–105, 2009). The Indian code response spectra corresponding to Delhi (zone IV) are found to be conservative at hard soil sites for all postulated earthquakes but found to be deficient for M _w?=?8.0 and 8.5 earthquakes at soft soil sites. Spectral acceleration maps at four different natural periods are strongly influenced by the shallow geological and soil conditions. Three pockets of high acceleration values are seen. These pockets seem to coincide with the contacts of (a) Aravalli quartzite and recent Yamuna alluvium (towards the East), (b) Aravalli quartzite and older quaternary alluvium (towards the South), and (c) older quaternary alluvium and recent Yamuna alluvium (towards the North).     

\tau_p^{{\rm max}} magnitude estimation, the case of the April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

Rapid magnitude estimate procedures represent a crucial part of proposed earthquake early warning systems. Most of these estimates are focused on the first part of the P-wave train, the earlier and less destructive part of the ground motion that follows an earthquake. Allen and Kanamori (Science 300:786–789, 2003) proposed to use the predominant period of the P-wave to determine the magnitude of a large earthquake at local distance and Olivieri et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 185:74–81, 2008) calibrated a specific relation for the Italian region. The Mw 6.3 earthquake hit Central Italy on April 6, 2009 and the largest aftershocks provide a useful dataset to validate the proposed relation and discuss the risks connected to the extrapolation of magnitude relations with a poor dataset of large earthquake waveforms. A large discrepancy between local magnitude (ML) estimated by means of $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ evaluation and standard ML (6.8 ± 1.5 vs. 5.9 ± 0.4) suggests using caution when ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ calibrations do not include a relevant dataset of large earthquakes. Effects from large residuals could be mitigated or removed introducing selection rules on τ _p function, by regionalizing the ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ function in the presence of significant tectonic or geological heterogeneity, and using probabilistic and evolutionary methods.     

Source mechanism and stress analysis of 23 October 2011 Van Earthquake (Mw = 7.1) and aftershocks

On 23 October 2011 at 1341 local time, a strong earthquake (Mw?=?7.1) occurred east of Lake Van (KOERI; Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute). The focal parameters of the main shock and 29 aftershocks with M?≥?4.0 were obtained from regional broadband seismic data from KOERI network by using Regional Moment Tensor Inversion Code (Dreger 2002). It is confirmed that the main shock had thrust faulting mechanism. The stress tensor analysis was completed using the focal mechanism solutions and the software developed by (Gephart Comp Geosci 16: 953-989, 1990). The maximum principal stress (P compressional) of the main shock is aligned in a N-S (NNW/SSE) direction and the tensional axis (T dilatation) is aligned in an E-W (ENE-WSW) direction. The b value is calculated as 0.96 using the maximum likelihood method (Utsu 1999).     

The European-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC) for the last millennium

The catalogue by Grünthal et al. (J Seismol 13:517?C541, 2009a) of earthquakes in central, northern, and north-western Europe with M _w????3.5 (CENEC) has been expanded to cover also southern Europe and the Mediterranean area. It has also been extended in time (1000?C2006). Due to the strongly increased seismicity in the new area, the threshold for events south of the latitude 44°N has here been set at M _w????4.0, keeping the lower threshold in the northern catalogue part. This part has been updated with data from new and revised national and regional catalogues. The new Euro-Mediterranean Earthquake Catalogue (EMEC) is based on data from some 80 domestic catalogues and data files and over 100 special studies. Available original M _w and M ₀ data have been introduced. The analysis largely followed the lines of the Grünthal et al. (J Seismol 13:517?C541, 2009a) study, i.e., fake and duplicate events were identified and removed, polygons were specified within each of which one or more of the catalogues or data files have validity, and existing magnitudes and intensities were converted to M _w. Algorithms to compute M _w are based on relations provided locally, or more commonly on those derived by Grünthal et al. (J Seismol 13:517?C541, 2009a) or in the present study. The homogeneity of EMEC with respect to M _w for the different constituents was investigated and improved where feasible. EMEC contains entries of some 45,000 earthquakes. For each event, the date, time, location (including focal depth if available), intensity I ₀ (if given in the original catalogue), magnitude M _w (with uncertainty when given), and source (catalogue or special study) are presented. Besides the main EMEC catalogue, large events before year 1000 in the SE part of the investigated area and fake events, respectively, are given in separate lists.     

Characterizing and Locating Very Weak (−2.2 ≥ M L ≥ −3.4) Induced Seismicity in Unstable Sandstone Cliffs by Nanoseismic Monitoring

Unloaded natural rock masses are known to generate seismic signals (Green et al., 2006; Hainzl et al., 2006; Husen et al., 2007; Kraft et al., 2006). Following a 1,000 m³ mass failure into the Mediterranean Sea, centimeter-wide tensile cracks were observed to have developed on top of an unstable segment of the coastal cliff. Nanoseismic monitoring techniques (Wust-Bloch and Joswig, 2006; Joswig, 2008), which function as a seismic microscope for extremely weak seismic events, were applied to verify whether brittle failure is still generated within this unconsolidated sandstone mass and to determine whether it can be detected. Sixteen days after the initial mass failure, three small-aperture sparse arrays (Seismic Navigation Systems-SNS) were deployed on top of this 40-m high shoreline cliff. This paper analyzes dozens of spiky nanoseismic (?2.2 ≥ M _L ≥ ?3.4) signals recorded over one night in continuous mode (at 200 Hz) at very short slant distances (3–67 m). Waveform characterization by sonogram analysis (Joswig, 2008) shows that these spiky signals are all short in duration (>0.5 s). Most of their signal energy is concentrated in the 10–75 Hz frequency range and the waveforms display high signal similarity. The detection threshold of the data set reaches M _L ?3.4 at 15 m and M _L ?2.7 at 67 m. The spatial distribution of source signals shows 3-D clustering within 10 m from the cliff edge. The time distribution of M _L magnitude does not display any decay pattern of M _L over time. This corroborates an unusual event decay over time (modified Omori’s law), whereby an initial quiet period is followed by regained activity, which then fades again. The polarization of maximal waveform amplitude was used to estimate spatial stress distribution. The orientation of ellipses displaying maximal signal energy is consistent with that of tensile cracks observed in the field and agrees with rock mechanics predictions. The M _L– surface rupture length relationship displayed by our data fits a constant-slope extrapolation of empirical data collected by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for normal fault features at much larger scale. Signal characterization and location as well as the absence of direct anthropogenic noise sources near the monitoring site, all indicate that these nanoseismic signals are generated by brittle failure within the top section of the cliff. The atypical event decay over time that was observed suggests that the cliff material is undergoing post-collapse bulk strain accommodation. This feasibility study demonstrates the potential of nanoseismic monitoring in rapidly detecting, locating and analyzing brittle failure generated within unconsolidated material before total collapse occurs.     

Compatible ground-motion prediction equations for damping scaling factors and vertical-to-horizontal spectral amplitude ratios for the broader Europe region

In a companion article Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) present a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating 5 %-damped horizontal pseudo-acceleration spectral (PSA) ordinates for shallow active crustal regions in Europe and the Middle East. This study provides a supplementary viscous damping model to modify 5 %-damped horizontal spectral ordinates of Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) for damping ratios ranging from 1 to 50 %. The paper also presents another damping model for scaling 5 %-damped vertical spectral ordinates that can be estimated from the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) spectral ratio GMPE that is also developed within the context of this study. For consistency in engineering applications, the horizontal and vertical damping models cover the same damping ratios as noted above. The article concludes by introducing period-dependent correlation coefficients to compute horizontal and vertical conditional mean spectra (Baker in J Struct Eng 137:322–331, 2011). The applicability range of the presented models is the same as of the horizontal GMPE proposed by Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b): as for spectral periods $0.01 \hbox { s}\le \,\hbox {T}\le \,4\hbox { s}$ as well as PGA and PGV for V/H model; and in terms of seismological estimator parameters $4\le \hbox {M}_\mathrm{w} \le 8, \hbox { R} \le 200 \hbox { km}, 150\hbox { m/s}\le \hbox { V}_\mathrm{S30}\le $ 1,200 m/s, for reverse, normal and strike-slip faults. The source-to-site distance measures that can be used in the computations are epicentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{epi})$ , hypocentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{hyp})$ and Joyner–Boore $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{JB})$ distances. The implementation of the proposed GMPEs will facilitate site-specific adjustments of the spectral amplitudes predicted from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe and the Middle East region. They can also help expressing the site-specific design ground motion in several formats. The consistency of the proposed models together with the Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) GMPE may be advantageous for future modifications in the ground-motion definition in Eurocode 8 (CEN in Eurocode 8, Design of structures for earthquake resistance—part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. European Standard NF EN 1998-1, Brussels, 2004).     

On the selection of GMPEs for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source

The Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is characterized by large magnitude ( $M_{W} \ge 7$ ) intermediate-depth earthquakes that occur two or three times during a century on average. In this study several procedures are used to grade four candidate ground motion prediction equations proposed for Vrancea source in the SHARE project. In the work of Delavaud et al. (J Seismol 16(3):451–473, 2012) four ground motion prediction models developed for subduction zones (Zhao et al. in Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006; Atkinson and Boore in Bull Seism Soc Am 93(4):1703–1729, 2003; Youngs et al. in Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997; Lin and Lee in Bull Seism Soc Am 98(1):220–240, 2008) are suggested as suitable for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source. The paper presents the appropriateness analysis of the four suggested ground motion prediction equations done using a dataset of 109 triaxial accelerograms recorded during seven Vrancea seismic events with moment magnitude $M_{W}$ between 5.4 and 7.4, occurred in the past 35 years. The strong ground motions were recorded in Romania, as well as in Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Serbia. Based on the ground motion dataset several goodness-of-fit measures are used in order to quantify how well the selected models match with the recorded data. The compatibility of the four ground motion prediction models with respect to magnitude scaling and distance scaling implied by strong ground motion dataset is investigated as well. The analyses show that the Youngs et al. (Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997) and Zhao et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006) ground motion prediction models have a better fit with the data and can be candidate models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.     

Preliminary results of strong ground motion simulation for the Lushan earthquake of 20 April 2013, China

The earthquake occurred in Lushan County on 20 April, 2013 caused heavy casualty and economic loss. In order to understand how the seismic energy propagates during this earthquake and how it causes the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground motions from a representative kinematic source model by Zhang et al. (Chin J Geophys 56(4):1408–1411, 2013) for this earthquake. To include the topographic effects, we used the curved grids finite difference method by Zhang and Chen (Geophys J Int 167(1):337–353, 2006), Zhang et al. (Geophys J Int 190(1):358–378, 2012) to implement the simulations. Our results indicated that the majority of seismic energy concentrated in the epicentral area and the vicinal Sichuan Basin, causing the XI and VII degree intensity. Due to the strong topographic effects of the mountain, the seismic intensity in the border area across the northeastern of Boxing County to the Lushan County also reached IX degree. Moreover, the strong influence of topography caused the amplifications of ground shaking at the mountain ridge, which is easy to cause landslides. These results are quite similar to those observed in the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008 occurred also in a strong topographic mountain area.     

“Repeating Events” as Estimator of Location Precision: The China National Seismograph Network

“Repeating earthquakes” identified by waveform cross-correlation, with inter-event separation of no more than 1 km, can be used for assessment of location precision. Assuming that the network-measured apparent inter-epicenter distance X of the “repeating doublets” indicates the location precision, we estimated the regionalized location quality of the China National Seismograph Network by comparing the “repeating events” in and around China by Schaff and Richards (Science 303: 1176–1178, 2004; J Geophys Res 116: B03309, 2011) and the monthly catalogue of the China Earthquake Networks Center. The comparison shows that the average X value of the China National Seismograph Network is approximately 10 km. The mis-location is larger for the Tibetan Plateau, west and north of Xinjiang, and east of Inner Mongolia, as indicated by larger X values. Mis-location is correlated with the completeness magnitude of the earthquake catalogue. Using the data from the Beijing Capital Circle Region, the dependence of the mis-location on the distribution of seismic stations can be further confirmed.     

An evaluation of 3-D velocity models of the Kanto basin for long-period ground motion simulations

We performed three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference simulations of long-period ground motions (2–10 s) in the Kanto basin using the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS 2009), Yamada and Yamanaka (Exploration Geophysics 65(3):139–150, 2012) (YY), and Head Quarter for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP 2012) velocity models for two intermediate depth (68–80 km) moderate earthquakes (Mw 5.8–5.9), which occurred beneath the Kanto basin. The models primarily differ in the basic data set used in the construction of the velocity models. The J-SHIS and HERP models are the results of integration of mainly geological, geophysical, and earthquake data. On the other hand, the YY model is oriented towards the microtremor-array-observation data. We obtained a goodness of fit between the observed and synthetic data based on three parameters, peak ground velocities (PGVs), smoothed Fourier spectra (FFT), and cross-correlations, using an algorithm proposed by Olsen and Mayhew (Seism Res Lett 81:715–723, 2010). We found that the three models reproduced the PGVs and FFT satisfactorily at most sites. However, the models performed poorly in terms of cross-correlations especially at the basin edges. We found that the synthetics using the YY model overestimate the observed waveforms at several sites located in the areas having V _s 0.3 km/s in the top layer; on the other hand, the J-SHIS and HERP models explain the waveforms better at the sites and perform similarly at most sites. We also found that the J-SHIS and HERP models consist of thick sediments beneath some sites, where the YY model is preferable. Thus, we have concluded that the models require revisions for the reliable prediction of long-period ground motions from future large earthquakes.     

Single-station standard deviation analysis of 2010–2012 strong-motion data from the Canterbury region, New Zealand

A systematic analysis was conducted of the different variability components that affect the prediction of $\text{ log }_{10}(PSA)$ (i.e., Pseudo-Spectral Acceleration) ordinates on (mostly) deep sedimentary soil sites using a sizable set of strong motion data recorded in the strong earthquake sequences of 2010 and 2012 in the Canterbury region of New Zealand. Following recent, well established approaches of residual analysis of ground motion predictions, as well as recent GMPEs based on a global dataset, it was found that the event-corrected single-station standard deviation (“sigma”) is strongly decreased, for all selected stations, with respect to the uncorrected sigma. Likewise, the event-corrected intraevent sigma estimated for the entire dataset is significantly reduced compared to the standard deviation associated to ground motion prediction models, i.e. the “ergodic” sigma, for all spectral periods. The event-corrected sigma values for the present dataset are surprisingly consistent with those recently derived using KiK-Net strong motion data from Japan and those by Boore and Atkinson (Earthq Spectra 34(1):99–138, 2008) GMPE, and remain fairly constant with respect to the spectral period at about $0.15\sim 0.2$ . An interpretation was provided of the physical meaning of the site correction term ( ${\delta }S2S)_{s}$ indicating a plausible correlation with prevailing geological conditions in the site area.