Winter and summer characterization of biogenic enantiomeric monoterpenes and anthropogenic BTEX compounds at a Mediterranean Stone Pine forest site

Measurements of biogenic gases including enantiomeric monoterpenes and isoprene, and anthropogenic gases such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, ortho-, meta- and para- xylene (BTEX) compounds were made by GC-MS in November and December 2008 within a stone pine (Pinus pinea L) forest located on the Southwest coast of Spain (37.10°N, 6.70°W). Mixing ratios of the biogenic species were found to be low (mean circa 10 pptv) consistent with previously observed low wintertime regional forest emission rates. In contrast, anthropogenic species were significantly higher (mean 10–156 pptv), the dominant emissions originating from the city of Huelva and associated petrochemical activities, located 25 km north west of the measurement site. In wintertime the monoterpene (?)-α-pinene was found to be in slight enantiomeric excess over (+)-α-pinene at night but by day the measured ratio was closer to one i.e. racemic. Samples taken the following summer in the same location showed much higher monoterpene mixing ratios and revealed a strong enantiomeric excess of (?)-α-pinene. This indicates a strong seasonal variance in the enantiomeric emission ratio which is not manifested in the day/night temperature cycles in wintertime. Mixing ratios of the xylene isomers (meta- and para-) and ethylbenzene, which are all well resolved on the beta-cyclodextrin column, were exploited to estimate average OH radical exposures to VOCs from the Huelva industrial area. These were compared to empirical estimates of OH based on JNO₂ measured at the site. The deficiencies of each estimation method are discussed.     

National greenhouse gas accounts: Current anthropogenic sources and sinks

This study provides estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the major anthropogenic sources for 142 countries. The data compilation is comprehensive in approach, including emissions from CO, CH₄, and N₂O, and ten halocarbons, in addition to CO₂. The sources include emissions from fossil fuel production and use, cement production, halocarbons, landfills, land use changes, biomass burning, rice and livestock production and fertilizer consumption. The approach used to derive these estimates corresponds closely with the simple methodologies proposed by the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Task Force of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The inventory includes a new estimate of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion based principally on data from the International Energy Agency. The research methodologies for estimating emissions from all sources is briefly described and compared with other recent studies in the literature.     

Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean

Summary Several seasonal and annual climate extreme indices have been calculated and their trends (over 1958 to 2000) analysed to identify possible changes in temperature- and precipitation-related climate extremes over the eastern Mediterranean region. The most significant temperature trends were revealed for summer, where both minimum and maximum temperature extremes show statistically significant warming trends. Increasing trends were also identified for an index of heatwave duration. Negative trends were found for the frequency of cold nights in winter and especially in summer. Precipitation indices highlighted more regional contrasts. The western part of the study region, which comprises the central Mediterranean and is represented by Italian stations, shows significant positive trends towards intense rainfall events and greater amounts of precipitation. In contrast, the eastern half showed negative trends in all precipitation indices indicating drier conditions in recent times. Significant positive trends were revealed for the index of maximum number of consecutive dry days, especially for stations in southern regions, particularly on the islands.Current affiliation: National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece.     

Fluctuations of surface air temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean

Summary  Changes in surface air temperature during the last century are widely discussed among researchers in the field of climatic change. Using various techniques, we investigate trends and periodicity of surface air temperature series from eight meteorological stations in the Eastern Mediterranean. For the analysis, we use the Mann-Kendall rank test, low-pass filtering, autocorrelation spectral analysis and maximum entropy spectral analysis. The latter two tests are compared. The study is based on series over one hundred years in length for four stations, and over fifty years in length for the other four. Increasing and decreasing surface temperature trends were found. These trends, however, are only significant for Malta, Jerusalem, and Tripoli at the 99% confidence level (positive trend) and for Amman at the 95% confidence level (negative trend). We also found inter-decadal variations in surface air temperature, including a fairly regular quasi 20-year oscillation, although its amplitude varied between different cycles. A period of warming began around 1910 at all stations. During the 1970s, the annual mean temperature series exhibit warming, but this warming was not uniform, continuous or of the same order at all the stations. The results of the Autocorrelation Spectral Analysis and the Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis are similar, pointing to the reliability of the results. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) exists at all stations during both increasing and decreasing trends. Similarly, a broad maximum from 3–8 years (related to El Ni?o) is found at Malta, Athens, Jerusalem, Beirut, and Latakia. An inverse relationship between El Ni?o and the North Atlantic Oscillation with surface air temperature over the Eastern Mediterranean is found at a highly significant confidence level. Received November 15, 1999 Revised August 29, 2000     

Decadal trends of main Eurasian oscillations and the Eastern Mediterranean precipitation

Summary ?The role of the two main European low-frequency oscillations – the East Atlantic/West Russian (EA/WR) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in controlling the precipitation in the Eastern Mediterranean region is investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the Israeli precipitation data for 1958–1998. The data on the EA/WR and NAO indices, received from the NCEP Climate Prediction Center, are also adapted. Composite mean sea level and precipitation anomaly patterns are constructed and analyzed. In addition to the widely investigated positive NAO trend, another, also positive EA/WR trend characterized atmospheric developments during the period. During NAO positive months, the EA/WR-associated positive SLP anomaly areas were shifted from the east Atlantic to southwest Europe. The areas were shifted to the north during the NAO-negative months and were located over central and northern Europe. This demonstrates that the use of fixed pressure NAO patterns may be not the optimum way to understand climate variability. Analysis of the NAO, EA/WR patterns, as well as that of their decadal trends, demonstrated a relationship between the main European oscillations and the EM precipitation. The results allow explanation of the observed reduction of the north Israeli precipitation by the EA/WR positive trend during the period. Received April 5, 2001; Revised February 14, 2002     

Identification of major moisture sources across the Mediterranean Basin

Climate Dynamics - We employ a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory method on an ensemble of four reanalysis datasets to provide a comprehensive understanding of moisture sources over the...     

Climate change and impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) are likely to be greatly affected by climate change, associated with increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts will be disproportional. We have analyzed long-term meteorological datasets along with regional climate model projections for the 21st century, based on the intermediate IPCC SRES scenario A1B. This suggests a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 3.5–7°C between the 1961–1990 reference period and the period 2070–2099. Daytime maximum temperatures appear to increase most rapidly in the northern part of the region, i.e. the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle and the end of the 21st century. Projected precipitation changes are quite variable. Annual precipitation is expected to decrease in the southern Europe – Turkey region and the Levant, whereas in the Arabian Gulf area it may increase. In the former region rainfall is actually expected to increase in winter, while decreasing in spring and summer, with a substantial increase of the number of days without rainfall. Anticipated regional impacts of climate change include heat stress, associated with poor air quality in the urban environment, and increasing scarcity of fresh water in the Levant.     

Characterization of iron and manganese species in atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic sources

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) was used to study the chemical form of iron, manganese and other paramagnetic species in airborne particles collected on southern coastal part of the North Sea, located in France. In parallel, chemical analysis was performed to obtain the metal concentrations in samples whereas an individual analysis of particles was provided by scanning electron microscopy coupled to an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDX). EPR spectra have evidenced Fe³⁺ and Mn²⁺ ions in the form of isolated or agglomerated species, as well as carbonaceous products with variable signal intensities according to the wind direction. The monitoring of a signal of isolated Mn²⁺ ions on a distance close to 90 km was proposed as tracer of particles from a Mn local emission source. Fe³⁺ signals are relative to agglomerated species and differences in the type of interaction between these species were evidenced following the wind direction. Fe³⁺ EPR signals parameters revealing antiferromagnetic contribution in Fe-rich particles were found for an industrial origin at Dunkerque.     

Characterization of iron and manganese species in atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic sources

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) was used to study the chemical form of iron, manganese and other paramagnetic species in airborne particles collected on southern coastal part of the North Sea, located in France. In parallel, chemical analysis was performed to obtain the metal concentrations in samples whereas an individual analysis of particles was provided by scanning electron microscopy coupled to an energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometer (SEM-EDX). EPR spectra have evidenced Fe³⁺ and Mn²⁺ ions in the form of isolated or agglomerated species, as well as carbonaceous products with variable signal intensities according to the wind direction. The monitoring of a signal of isolated Mn²⁺ ions on a distance close to 90 km was proposed as tracer of particles from a Mn local emission source. Fe³⁺ signals are relative to agglomerated species and differences in the type of interaction between these species were evidenced following the wind direction. Fe³⁺ EPR signals parameters revealing antiferromagnetic contribution in Fe-rich particles were found for an industrial origin at Dunkerque.     

Cloud contribution to the daily and annual radiation budget in a mountainous valley

An automated-ventilated radiation station has been set up in a mountainous valley at the Logan Airport in northern Utah, USA, since mid-1995, to evaluate the daily and annual radiation budget components, and develop an algorithm to study cloudiness and its contribution to the daily and annual radiation. This radiation station (composed of pyranometers, pyrgeometers and a net radiometer) provides continuous measurements of downward and upward shortwave, longwave and net radiation throughout the year. The surface temperature and pressure, the 2-m air temperature and humidity, precipitation, and wind at this station were also measured. A heated rain gauge provided precipitation information. Using air temperature and moisture and measured downward longwave (atmospheric) radiation, appropriate formula (among four approaches) was chosen for computation of cloudless-skies atmospheric emissivity. Considering the additional longwave radiation during the cloudy skies coming from the cloud in the waveband which the gaseous emission lacks (from 8–13 μm), an algorithm was developed which provides continuous 20-min cloud information (cloud base height, cloud base temperature, percent of skies covered by cloud, and cloud contribution to the radiation budget) over the area during day and night. On the partly-cloudy day of 3 February, 2003, for instance, cloud contributed 1.34 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 out of 26.92 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 to the daily atmospheric radiation. On the overcast day of 18 December, 2003, this contribution was 5.77 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1 out of 29.38 MJ m^− 2 d^− 1. The same contribution for the year 2003 amounted to 402.85 MJ m^− 2 y^− 1 out of 9976.08 MJ m^− 2 y^− 1. Observations (fog which yielded a zero cloud base height and satellite cloud imaging data) throughout the year confirmed the validity of the computed data. The nearby Bowen ratio station provided the downward radiation and net radiation data. If necessary, these data could be substituted for the missing data at the radiation station. While the automated surface observing systems (ASOS) ceilometer at the Logan airport provides only the overhead cloud information, the proposed algorithm provides this information over the valley. The proposed algorithm is a promising approach for evaluation of the cloud base temperature, cloud base height, percent of skies covered by cloud, and cloud contribution to the daily and annual radiation budget at local and regional scales.     

On the association between synoptic circulation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean

In the present paper cluster analysis of 2-month air mass back-trajectories for three contrasting fire and non-fire events is conducted (high, low, and zero burnt area). The large fire event displays an air mass history dissimilar to other events whereby a 39-day period of warm and dry chiefly northerly anticyclonic conditions is evident, before a week of warmer predominantly southwesterly cyclonic activity, immediately prior to ignition. The pressure level of these anticyclonic air masses is above 800 hPa for more than 75 % of the trajectory length; this region is above the principal moisture transport regime of 800 hPa altitude. Analysis of variance on the mean rate of change of potential temperature identified weak statistically significant differences between two air mass pairs regarding the large fire: anticyclonic and cyclonic air masses in both cases (p?=?0.038 and p?=?0.020). Such regularity of type and occurrence, approach pressure levels and statistically significant differences are not evident for the small and non-fire event air masses. Such understanding is expected to permit appropriate steps to be undertaken including superior prediction and improved suppression strategy.     

Analyses of summer lightning activity and precipitation in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean

The lightning activity and precipitation in two 3-hour time intervals in the grid boxes of 0.25 × 0.25° over East and Central Mediterranean during the summer of 2005 and 2006 are analysed. The results show that the frequency distribution of the precipitation amount is shifted towards larger values for the cases with lightning as compared with the cases without lightning. It was found that the number of cases with 3-hour accumulated rainfall greater than 10 mm was bigger when lightning occurred (65%) than when it was absent (35%). Investigation of diurnal and spatial distributions of lightning shows that the afternoon flash density peak is associated mainly with lightning over the land, which is in accordance with the results of earlier works. The early morning flash density peak is associated mainly with flashes over the sea. High correlation coefficients (0.89 during the morning hours and 0.98 during afternoon) were found between rain rate (mm/h) and average flash density (fl/km²) when flash density is averaged in logarithmic intervals of rain rate.     

The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade

Regional distributions of the mean annual temperature in the 2000s are computed with and without the effect of anthropogenic influences on the climate in several sub-continental regions. Simulated global patterns of the temperature response to external forcings are regressed against observations using optimal fingerprinting. The global analysis provides constraints which are then used to construct the regional temperature distributions. A similar approach was also employed in previous work, but here the methodology is extended to examine changes in any region, including areas with a poor observational coverage that were omitted in the earlier study. Two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used in the analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are found to have at least quadrupled the likelihood of occurrence of a year warmer than the warmest year since 1900 in 23 out of the 24 regions. The temperature distributions computed with the two models are very similar. While a more detailed assessment of model dependencies remains to be made once additional suitable GCM simulations become available, the present study introduces the statistical methodology and demonstrates its first application. The derived information concerning the effect of human influences on the regional climate is useful for adaptation planning. Moreover, by pre-computing the change in the likelihood of exceeding a temperature threshold over a range of thresholds, this kind of analysis enables a near real-time assessment of the anthropogenic impact on the observed regional temperatures.     

Rainfall, spring discharge and past human occupancy in the Eastern Mediterranean

In ancient times human activities were tightly related and sensitive to rainfall amounts and seasonal distribution. East Mediterranean settlements were concentrated around numerous small to large springs, such as the Judean Mountains area. The goals of this study were to determine (a) the sensitivity of total discharge, recession curve, and response time of such springs to annual precipitation patterns, and (b) how spring hydrology responds to series of drought or wet years and to transitions from drought to normal and/or wet episodes (and vice versa). These goals were achieved by setting a finite-element hydro-geological flow model for selected perched springs that characterize the numerous springs throughout the carbonate karst terrain in the Judean Mountains. In addition, we estimated the effect of proposed regional past climate changes on the springs; in so doing, we transfer climate change to community size, livelihood and economic strength that were highly dependent on agricultural productivity. The results of the hydro-geological model revealed that these mountainous communities had the potential to prosper during historically wetter episodes and were probably adapted to short-term variability in annual rainfall. However, moderate to extreme droughts lasting only a few years could have led to a partial or even total abandonment of the springs as focal sites of intensive agricultural production. Spring drying eliminated the primary cause for the location of settlement. This occurred simultaneously in numerous settlements around the mountains of the southern Levant and therefore, must have caused dramatic economic and societal changes in the entire region, perhaps even resonating afar.     

The atmospheric component of the Mediterranean Sea water budget in a WRF multi-physics ensemble and observations

The use of high resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr^?1) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr^?1). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (～10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ～70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (～13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (～35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (～55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (～32 % of the total variance) schemes with a strong regional dependence. Most members of the ensemble underestimate total precipitation amounts with biases as large as 250 mm yr^?1 over the whole Mediterranean Sea compared with ERA Interim reanalysis mainly due to an underestimation of the number of wet days. The larger number of dry days in simulations is associated with a deficit in the activation of cumulus schemes. Both radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes influence precipitation through modifications on the available water vapor in the boundary layer generally tied with changes in evaporation.     

Present-day contribution of anthropogenic emissions from China to the global burden and radiative forcing of aerosol and ozone

The effect of anthropogenic emissions from China on global burdens of ozone, sulphate, organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC) aerosols is examined, using the three-dimensional chemistry transport model Oslo CTM2. Two model simulations were performed, the first with global present-day emissions and the second with the anthropogenic emissions from China set to their pre-industrial levels. The global radiative forcing for these species is then calculated. Industrial emissions from China are found to account for a 4–5% increase in the global burden of OC aerosol, the change in secondary organic aerosol being slightly less than that of primary organic aerosol. A 10% increase in the global sulphate aerosol burden is calculated, and the increase in BC is 23%. The global radiative forcing of aerosols from China was calculated to be −62, −3.7, −13 and 89 mW m⁻², for sulphate, secondary organic, primary organic and BC aerosols, respectively. The increase in ozone causes a forcing of 77 mW m⁻².     

Changes in Fire and Climate in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean Basin)

Fire is a dominant ecological factor in Mediterranean ecosystems, and changes in the fire regime can have important consequences for the stability of our landscapes. In this framework I asked firstly, what is the trend in fire number and area burned in the eastern Iberian Peninsula, and then, to what extent is the inter-annual variability of fires determined by climatic factors. To answer these questions I analysed the meteorological data (temperature and precipitation) from 350 stations covering the eastern Iberian Peninsula (1950–2000), and the fire records for the same area (historical data, 1874–1968, and data from recent decades, 1968–2000). The results suggested a slight tendency towards decreasing summer rainfall and a clear pattern of increasing annual and summer temperatures (on average, annual temperatures increased 0.35 °C per decade from 1950 to 2000). The analysis of fire records suggested a clear increase in the annual number of fires and area burned during the last century; however, in the last three decades the number of fires also increased but the area burned did not show a clear trend. For this period the inter-annual variability in area burned was significantly related to the summer rainfall, that is, in wet summers the area burned was lower that in dry summers. Furthermore, summer rainfall was significantly cross-correlated with summer area burned for a time-lag of 2 years, suggesting that high rainfall may increase fuel loads that burn 2 years later.     

Origin and source regions of PM10 in the Eastern Mediterranean atmosphere

A set of daily PM₁₀ (n = 281) samples collected from April 2001 to April 2002 at a rural site (Erdemli), located on the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean, were analyzed applying Mass Closure (MC), absolute principal factor analysis (APFA) and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) to determine source contributions. The results from the three techniques were compared to identify the similarities and differences in the sources and source contributions. Source apportionment analysis indicated that PM₁₀ were mainly originated from natural sources (sea salt + crustal ≈ 60%) whilst secondary aerosols and residual oil burning accounted for approximately 20% and 10% of the total PM₁₀ mass, respectively. Calculations for sulfate showed that on average 8% and 12% of its total concentration were originated from sea salt and biogenic emissions, respectively. However, the contribution by biogenic emissions may reach up to a maximum of ~ 40% in the summer. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis for identification of source regions showed that the Saharan desert was the main source area for crustal components. For secondary aerosol components the analysis revealed one source region, (i.e. the south-Eastern Black Sea), whereas for residual oil, Western Europe and the western Balkans areas were found to be the main source regions.