Simulating streamflow variability and aquatic states in temporary streams using a coupled groundwater-surface water model

Abstract

In order to apply the EU Water Framework Directive for temporary streams, it is important to quantify the space–time development of different aquatic states. We report on research on the development of aquatic states for temporary streams in the Evrotas basin, Greece. The SIMGRO regional hydrological model was used in a GIS framework to generate flow time series for the Evrotas River and all major tributaries. Five flow phases were distinguished: flood conditions, riffles, connected pools, isolated pools and dry bed conditions. Thresholds based on local hydraulic characteristics were identified per stream reach and flow phase, enabling the frequency of flow phases per month and the average frequencies for all streams to be derived. Three historical scenarios within the 20th century, marking periods of major changes in water management, were investigated. Additionally, a climate scenario for the 2050s was analysed. Simulations revealed that low flows are now much lower, mainly because more groundwater is abstracted for irrigation. The consequence is that stretches of the river fall dry during several months, causing the ecological status to deteriorate.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor X. Chen     

Numerical simulations of mesoscale variability in the Straits of Florida

The circulation in the Straits of Florida is dominated by the throughflow of the Florida Current, as modified by tidal flows, responses to atmospheric cold front and extratropical cyclone (easterly wave and tropical cyclone) passages in winter (summer), and intrinsic mesoscale variability due to instabilities of the Florida Current front and jet system. Monthly meanders of the Florida Current, persistent oceanic fronts associated with the Florida Current’s baroclinic jet, and frontal eddies shed weekly by the Florida Current are the primary mesoscale features. A limited area model (Princeton Ocean Model: POM) is implemented to cover the Straits of Florida with a curvilinear grid that resolves the mesoscale structure, especially where the baroclinic flow is locked to steep topography in a 90 degree bend of the Straits. Florida Current cyclonic frontal eddies are spawned spontaneously, grow as they translate downstream, interact with shelf waters, and exhibit the same space-time attributes that characterize their observed counterparts, as evidenced by satellite imagery, shipboard synoptic mapping, coastal HF radar, and moored time series. Here, a deeper understanding is attempted for the frontal eddy kinematics and dynamics by examining, for example, their sensitivity to model parameter values, synoptic versus monthly atmospheric forcing, and other determinants of the flow. The mean flow shears are concentrated along the shelfbreak, where these frontal eddies are trapped, favoring the formation of the eddies by mean flow instabilities. In particular, it is found that the Florida Current frontal eddies exist independent of the wind-forcing considered (i.e., no winds, monthly winds, and synoptic (but not mesoscale) winds); however, they are modulated by the synoptic wind-forcing. Nevertheless, intriguingly, the frontal eddies have the same weekly time scale as the weather cycle.     

Benchmarking the mesoscale variability in global ocean eddy-permitting numerical systems

The role of data assimilation procedures on representing ocean mesoscale variability is assessed by applying eddy statistics to a state-of-the-art global ocean reanalysis (C-GLORS), a free global ocean simulation (performed with the NEMO system) and an observation-based dataset (ARMOR3D) used as an independent benchmark. Numerical results are computed on a 1/4 ^° horizontal grid (ORCA025) and share the same resolution with ARMOR3D dataset. This “eddy-permitting” resolution is sufficient to allow ocean eddies to form. Further to assessing the eddy statistics from three different datasets, a global three-dimensional eddy detection system is implemented in order to bypass the need of regional-dependent definition of thresholds, typical of commonly adopted eddy detection algorithms. It thus provides full three-dimensional eddy statistics segmenting vertical profiles from local rotational velocities. This criterion is crucial for discerning real eddies from transient surface noise that inevitably affects any two-dimensional algorithm. Data assimilation enhances and corrects mesoscale variability on a wide range of features that cannot be well reproduced otherwise. The free simulation fairly reproduces eddies emerging from western boundary currents and deep baroclinic instabilities, while underestimates shallower vortexes that populate the full basin. The ocean reanalysis recovers most of the missing turbulence, shown by satellite products , that is not generated by the model itself and consistently projects surface variability deep into the water column. The comparison with the statistically reconstructed vertical profiles from ARMOR3D show that ocean data assimilation is able to embed variability into the model dynamics, constraining eddies with in situ and altimetry observation and generating them consistently with local environment.     

Decadal variability of the Kuroshio Extension: mesoscale eddies and recirculations

An eddy-resolving multidecadal ocean model hindcast simulation is analyzed to investigate time-varying signals of the two recirculation gyres present respectively to the north and south of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet. The northern recirculation gyre (NRG), which has been detected at middepth recently by profiling float and moored current meter observations, is a major focus of the present study. Low-frequency variations in the intensity of the recirculation gyres are overall highly correlated with decadal variations of the KE jet induced by the basin-wide wind change. Modulation of the simulated mesoscale eddies and its relationship with the time-varying recirculation gyres are also evaluated. The simulated eddy kinetic energy in the upstream KE region is inversely correlated with the intensity of the NRG, consistent with previous observational studies. Eddy influence on the low-frequency modulation of the NRG intensity at middepth is further examined by a composite analysis of turbulent Sverdrup balance, assuming a potential vorticity balance between the mean advection and the convergent eddy fluxes during the different states of the recirculation gyre. The change in the NRG intensity is adequately explained by that inferred by the turbulent Sverdrup balance, suggesting that the eddy feedback triggers the low-frequency modulation of the NRG intensity at middepth.     

Intra-annual variability in nutrients in the Godavari estuary,India

Daily variations in nutrients were monitored for 15 months (September 2007–November 2008) in the Godavari estuary, Andhra Pradesh, India, at two fixed locations. River discharge has significant influence on nutrients loading to the estuary, which peaks during June–August (peak discharge period; monsoon) whereas exchanges at the sediment–water interface, groundwater and rainwater contribute significantly during other period. Despite significant amount of nutrients brought by discharge to the study region, phytoplankton biomass, in terms of chlorophyll-a (Chl a), did not increase significantly due to high suspended load and shallow photic depth. Nutrients showed downward gradient towards downstream of the estuary from upstream due to dilution by nutrient poor seawater and biological uptake. The N:P ratios were higher than Redfield ratio in both upstream and downstream of the estuary during no discharge period suggesting PO₄ to be a limiting nutrient for phytoplankton production, at levels <0.10 μmol L⁻¹. On the other hand, Si:N ratios were always more than unity during entire study period at both the stations indicating that Si(OH)₄ is not a limiting nutrient. Our results suggest that suspended matter limits phytoplankton biomass during peak discharge period whereas PO₄ during no discharge period.     

Effects of cyclonic mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension region using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model

Effects of mesoscale eddies on the marine ecosystem in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region are investigated using an eddy-resolving coupled physical-biological model. The model captures the seasonal and intra-seasonal variability of chlorophyll distribution associated with the mesoscale eddies, front variability, Kuroshio meanders, and upwelling. The model also reproduces the observed interannual variability of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) in the KE region along a zonal band of 32–34°N from 2002 to 2006. The distribution of high surface chlorophyll corresponds to low SSHA. Cyclonic eddies are found to detach from the KE jet near 150°E and 158°E and propagate westward. The westward propagating cyclonic eddies lift the nutrient-rich thermocline into the euphotic zone and maintain high levels of chlorophyll in summer. In the subsurface layer, the pattern in chlorophyll is influenced by both lateral and vertical advection. In winter, convection inside the eddy entrains high levels of nutrients into the mixed layer, increasing production, and resulting in high chlorophyll concentration throughout the surface mixed layer. There is significant interannual variability in both the cyclonic eddy activity and the surface phytoplankton bloom south of the KE jet, although whether or not there is a causal link is unclear.     

交互集合耦合模式系统对北太平洋SST变率和ENSO的模拟检验

清华大学地球系统科学研究中心在一个标准耦合模式（SC）的基础上建立了交互集合耦合模式系统（IE）,该系统可以实现多个不同大气模式或者同一大气模式采取不同初值组成的多个分量集合之后与海、陆、冰模式进行耦合.本文利用同一大气模式七个不同初值分量与其它模式分量开展在线集合耦合试验,利用积分稳定之后100年的试验结果,分析了IE在减小海-气界面大气噪音的情况下,对北太平洋海表面温度（SST）变率和ENSO的模拟,并与SC模拟结果进行了对比.分析表明,IE减小了北太平洋中高纬度SST方差的85%以上,表明该区域SST变率主要受大气的影响,且主要是通过改变海表湍流热通量实现的.黑潮延伸体区和北太平洋中部副热带涡旋区域平均SST 8年左右的低频周期主要受来自大气内部动力过程的驱动.在集合耦合模拟中,无论是副热带涡旋区SST与ENSO的联系,还是ENSO与北太平洋中高纬度SST的联系都能模拟出来,而标准模式未能模拟出这些现象,意味着大气噪音过强将掩盖ENSO与太平洋热带外SST的联系.IE对与ENSO关联的“太平洋—北美”（PNA）遥相关型的合理模拟,并通过湍流热通量对海表温度的影响,是其能够更好模拟ENSO与北太平洋中高纬度SST关系的重要原因.本文通过分析验证了所建立的交互集合耦合模式系统的合理性,揭示了该系统在海-气相互作用研究领域方面具有一定应用前景.     

Assessment of the hydraulic slope flow approach using a mesoscale model

The simplified hydraulic two-layer model for a katabatic flow is analysed using the outputs from a high-resolution mesoscale simulation. A stably stratified night is simulated for the Duero basin, a complex terrain area located in the northern Spanish plateau, with large vertical and horizontal spatial resolution. Well-defined katabatic flows on the basin slopes are generated by the simulation, that are relatively stationary and quasi-bidimensional for some areas in the central part of the night. The bulk quantities used in the two-layer approach as well as the different terms in the equations are computed from the three-dimensional information provided by the mesoscale simulation. This method allows to inspect how well the simplified approach represents the katabatic flow generated by the mesoscale model. The study shows that the hydraulic model allows for a comprehensive analysis of the basic mechanisms of the slope flows but is not able to close the budget equations, since the residuals are large.     

Northern boundary current variability and mesoscale dynamics: a long-term HF RADAR monitoring in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Ocean Dynamics - Coastal waters are globally challenging areas to monitor not only because of the high resolution needed to resolve the scales at stake but also because most satellites are not yet...     

Mechanisms controlling the intra-annual mesoscale variability of SST and SPM in the southern North Sea

Thermal and optical remote sensing data were used to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the southern North Sea. Monthly SST composites showed pronounced seasonal warming of the southern North Sea and delineated the English coastal and continental coastal waters. The East-Anglia Plume is the dominant feature of the English coastal waters in the winter and autumn SPM composites, and the Rhine region of freshwater influence (ROFI), including the Flemish Banks, is the dominant feature of the continental waters. These mesoscale spatial structures are also influenced by the evolution of fronts, such as the seasonal front separating well-mixed water in the southern Bight, from the seasonally stratified central North Sea waters. A harmonic analysis of the SST and SPM images showed pronounced seasonal variability, as well as spring-neap variations in the level of tidal mixing in the East Anglia Plume, the Rhine ROFI and central North Sea. The harmonic analysis indicates the important role played by the local meteorology and tides in governing the SST and near-surface SPM concentrations in the southern North Sea. In the summer, thermal stratification affects the visibility of SPM to satellite sensors in the waters to the north of the Flamborough and Frisian Fronts. Haline stratification plays an important role in the visibility of SPM in the Rhine ROFI throughout the year. When stratified, both regions typically exhibit low surface SPM values. A numerical model study, together with the harmonic analysis, highlights the importance of tides and waves in controlling the stratification in the southern North Sea and hence the visibility of SPM.     

Using lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models to simulate daily isotope variability with fractionation in a nested mesoscale catchment

This paper presents 19 months of stable isotope (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) data to enhance understanding of water and solute transport at two spatial scales (2.3 km² and 122 km²) in the agricultural Lunan catchment, Scotland. Daily precipitation and stream isotope data, weekly lake and spring isotope data and monthly groundwater isotope data revealed important insights into flow pathways and mixing of water at both scales. In particular, a deeper groundwater flow path significantly contributes to total streamflow (25-50%). Upstream lake isotope dynamics, susceptible to evaporative fractionation, also appeared to have an important influence on the downstream isotope composition. This unique tracer data set facilitated the conceptualization of a lumped catchment-scale flow-tracer model. The incorporation of hydrological, mixing and fractionation processes based on these data improved simulations of the stream δ²H isotope response at the catchment outlet from 0.37 to 0.56 for the Nash-Sutcliffe statistic. The stable isotope data successfully aided model conceptualization and calibration in the quest for a simple water and solute transport model with improved representation of process dynamics.     

The variability of the Atlantic meridional circulation since 1980, as hindcast by a data-driven nonlinear systems model

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an important component of the climate system, has only been directly measured since the RAPID array’s installation across the Atlantic at 26°N in 2004. This has shown that the AMOC strength is highly variable on monthly timescales; however, after an abrupt, short-lived, halving of the strength of the AMOC early in 2010, its mean has remained?~?15% below its pre-2010 level. To attempt to understand the reasons for this variability, we use a control systems identification approach to model the AMOC, with the RAPID data of 2004–2017 providing a trial and test data set. After testing to find the environmental variables, and systems model, that allow us to best match the RAPID observations, we reconstruct AMOC variation back to 1980. Our reconstruction suggests that there is inter-decadal variability in the strength of the AMOC, with periods of both weaker flow than recently, and flow strengths similar to the late 2000s, since 1980. Recent signs of weakening may therefore not reflect the beginning of a sustained decline. It is also shown that there may be predictive power for AMOC variability of around 6 months, as ocean density contrasts between the source and sink regions for the North Atlantic Drift, with lags up to 6 months, are found to be important components of the systems model.     

Application of implicit normal mode initialization to a limited-area mesoscale prediction model

Summary An implicit nonlinear normal mode initialization scheme proposed by Temperton is modified and applied to a limited-area mesoscale baroclinic model. Stress is put on the numerical aspects of the method.     

Seasonal plankton variability in Chilean Patagonia fjords: Carbon flow through the pelagic food web of Aysen Fjord and plankton dynamics in the Moraleda Channel basin

Two research cruises (CIMAR 13 Fiordos) were conducted in the N–S oriented macrobasin of the Moraleda Channel (42–47°S), which includes the E–W oriented Puyuhuapi Channel and Aysen Fjord, during two contrasting productive seasons: austral winter (27 July–7 August 2007) and spring (2–12 November 2007). These campaigns set out to assess the spatio-temporal variability, defined by the local topography along Moraleda Channel, in the biological, physical, and chemical oceanographic characteristics of different microbasins and to quantify the carbon budget of the pelagic trophic webs of Aysen Fjord.Seasonal carbon fluxes and fjord-system functioning vary widely in our study area. In terms of spatial topography, two constriction sills (Meninea and Elefantes) define three microbasins along Moraleda Channel, herein the (1) north (Guafo-Meninea), (2) central (Meninea-Elefantes), and (3) south (Elefantes-San Rafael Lagoon) microbasins. In winter, nutrient concentrations were high (i.e. nitrate range: 21–14 μM) and primary production was low (153–310 mgC m^?2 d^?1), suggesting that reduced light radiation depressed the plankton dynamics throughout Moraleda Channel. In spring, primary production followed a conspicuous N–S gradient, which was the highest (5167 mgC m^?2 d^?1) in the north microbasin and the lowest (742 mgC m^?2 d^?1) in the south microbasin. The seasonal pattern of the semi-enclosed Puyuhuapi Channel and Aysen Fjord, however, revealed no significant differences in primary production (～800 mgC m^?2 d^?1), and vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon were nearly twice as high in spring as in winter (266 vs. 168 mgC m^?2 d^?1).At the time-series station (St. 79), the lithogenic fraction dominated the total sedimented matter (seston). The role of euphausiids in the biological carbon pump of the Patagonian fjords was evident, given the predominance of zooplankton fecal material, mostly euphausiid fecal strings (46% of all fecal material), among the recognizable particles contributing to the particulate organic carbon flux.The topographic constriction sills partially modulated the exchange of oceanic waters (Subantarctic Surface Water) with freshwater river discharges along the Moraleda Channel. This exchange affects salinity and nutrient availability and, thus, the plankton structure. The north microbasin was dominated by a seasonal alternation of the classical (spring) and microbial (winter) food webs. However, in the south microbasin, productivity was low and the system was dominated year-round by large inputs of glacier-derived, silt-rich freshwater carrying predominantly small-sized diatoms (Skeletonema spp) and bacteria. When superimposed upon this scenario, highly variable (seasonal) solar radiation and photoperiods could exacerbate north–south differences along Moraleda Channel.     

The influence of mesoscale topography on the stability and growth rates of a two-layer model of the open ocean

Abstract

The influence of mesoscale topography on the baroclinic instability of a two-layer model of the open ocean is considered. For westward velocities in the top layer (U), and for a sinusoidal topography independent of x or longitude (a cross-stream topography), the critical value of U (U_c ) leading to instability is the same as when there is no topography. The wavelength of the unstable perturbation corresponding to U _c is shortened. For a given wavevector (k) of the perturbation the system becomes stable (as also in the absence of topography) for large values of |U|. The minimum value of the shear leading to stability is, however, significantly reduced by the topography.

For sufficiently large values of the height of the topographic features, instabilities appear which are localized within a narrow range of the shear. These instabilities are studied for a topography that depends both on x and y.

For a cross-stream topography the growth rates are somewhat smaller than those without topography and they depend only weakly on k_y . For the topographies considered here which depend both on x and y, perturbations with different values of k_y can again have roughly the same growth rate.

In the case of stable oscillations, variations in the eddy energy with very long periods are made possible by the coexistence of topographic modes with closely lying periods.     

Parallelization of a coupled wave-circulation model and its application

Using the technique of Message Passing Interface, a parallelized version of a coupled wave-circulation model was set up. The tested model is a regional one for simulating the seas off China, which is comprised of 450,625 elements and 30 vertical sigma layers. The implementation efficiency was evaluated on two kinds of computers, the HP Integrity Superdome and SGI Altix 4700 multiprocessor. The numerical results show that the low-communication high-extra-computation scheme (LCHC) produces higher efficiency than the high-communication no-extra-computation scheme (HCNC) while the number of processors exceeds 24 for HP Integrity Superdome and eight for SGI Altix 4700, respectively. The experiments with both LCHC and HCNC scheme show super-linear speed-up when the number of processors is small. The model with the LCHC scheme is preferred as it achieves parallel efficiency in excess of 90% on the HP machines for all experiments with the number of processors no more than 100, while the efficiency decreases rapidly with the HCNC scheme after the number of processors increases to more than 24. Numerical results suggest that the parallelization of this coupled wave-circulation model is efficient and portable to a variety of parallel architectures.     

The intrinsic nonlinear multiscale interactions among the mean flow,low frequency variability and mesoscale eddies in the Kuroshio region

Using a new functional analysis tool, multiscale window transform(MWT), and the MWT-based localized multiscale energetics analysis and canonical transfer theory, this study reconstructs the Kuroshio system on three scale windows, namely,the mean flow window, the interannual-scale(low-frequency) window, and the transient eddy window, and investigates the climatological characteristics of the intricate nonlinear interactions among these windows. Significant upscale energy transfer is observed east of Taiwan, where the mean Kuroshio current extracts kinetic energy from both the interannual and eddy windows.It is found that the canonical transfer from the interannual variability is an intrinsic source that drives the eddy activities in this region. The multiscale variabilities of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS) are mainly controlled by the interaction between the mean flow and the eddies.The mean flow undergoes mixed instabilities(i.e., both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities) in the southern ECS, while it is barotropically stable but baroclinically unstable to the north. The multiscale interactions are found to be most intense south of Japan, where strong mixed instabilities occur; both the canonical transfers from the mean flow and the interannual scale are important mechanisms to fuel the eddies. It is also found that the interannual-scale energy mainly comes from the barotropically unstable jet, rather than the upscale energy transfer from the high frequency eddies.     

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km² domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm⁻² over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.