广东省各大江河年最大流量的预测研究

海洋、大气、地表径流是地球圈内水汽循环的一个整体。把北半球高空等压面高度场和太平洋海温场当作影响广东长期洪水变化的重要因子，是符合气候学和水文学原理的。通过主分量的分析方法，建立北半球500hPa高度场、北太平洋海温场与广东西江、北江、东江、韩江各大江河年最大流量长期变化的统计关系，从而作出翌年的年最大流量预测，取得了比较满意的成果。     

基于单位线反演的产流误差修正

为提高实时洪水预报的精度,将单位线引入实时洪水预报修正中,建立一种向信息源头追溯的反馈修正模型。用最小二乘估计原理,通过推求产流量误差,用理想模型对误差修正模型进行了验证,并对不同范围的产流量误差修正效果进行对比。在浙江长潭流域对11场历史洪水进行修正验证,效果明显,对预报精度有一定的提高。该方法结构简单,且不增加参数,物理概念清晰,又不损失预见期,可以在实际流域洪水预报中推广应用。     

基于主成分和半参数的大坝变形监测回归模型

主成分分析在一定程度上可以解决大坝变形监测回归模型因子间的复共线性,然而当提取的主成分信息不充分时,主成分回归用于大坝安全预测可能失效。提出以主成分分析提取的主成分作为半参数回归的参数分量,剩余成分和模型误差作为未知的非参数分量对主成分回归进行补偿,建立一种基于主成分和半参数的大坝变形监测混合回归模型。利用某大坝实测资料进行建模分析,结果表明该混合模型能克服回归因子间的复共线性,避免半参数回归补偿最小二乘估计中法矩阵的病态性,比传统的主成分回归和逐步回归模型具有更好的拟合和预报精度。     

洪水预报产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法

为提高实时洪水预报精度,提出了一种基于动态系统响应曲线洪水预报误差修正新方法。该方法将动态系统响应曲线引入洪水预报误差修正中,建立一种向误差源头追溯的动态反馈修正模型。此修正方法将新安江模型产流以下的部分作为响应系统, 用线性差分近似代替非线性系统响应函数的偏导数值,得到时段产流量所对应的系统响应曲线。用实测流量和计算流量之间的差值作为信息,使用最小二乘估计原理,对产流量进行修正, 再用修正后的产流量重新计算出流过程。该修正方法分别用理想案例和王家坝流域进行检验,结果证明此方法效果比传统二阶自回归模型有明显提高。     

河流集合预报方法在洮河流域径流预报中的应用研究

为研究洮河流域径流预报,根据河流集合预报方法,利用红旗水文站实时监测资料,基于中国洪水预报系统开发的三水源蓄满产流、滞后演算和马斯京根模块构建全流域洪水预报模型,并应用该模型分析预测红旗水文站径流及其概率分布统计。结果表明:径流拟合过程拟合较好,取得了较好的预报效果,模型满足河流集合预报应用的条件,结论可为洮河流域水资源开发利用、防汛保安提供参考依据。     

实时洪水抗差预报系统研究

把抗差估计理论引入实时洪水预报系统,提出适合于实时洪水预报系统的抗差特征函数,建立降雨误差的动态监控模式,研究实时修正模型参数的动态抗差估计,结合洪水预报模型,形成具有水文学特点、抗差性强的实时洪水抗差预报系统.将此系统和传统实时洪水预报系统运用于闽江七里街流域,比较当降雨和流量资料存在异常误差时两系统的预报效果.结果表明,实时洪水抗差预报系统能抵御异常值的影响,获得比较稳定且高精度的预报结果.     

基于主成分回归的阿克苏市城市需水量预测

科学地预测城市需水量对城市的发展具有十分重要的意义。城市需水量受到多重因素的影响,各因素之间的相关性较大,从而导致一些预测计算结果失真,使一些公式的适用性不是很强。为此,采用主成分回归建模,借助主成分分析与典型相关分析的思路,有效地解决了各因子之间的相关问题,建立了城市需水量预报模型。结果表明．模型的拟合和预报精度均较好。     

2015年夏季南疆地区高温冰雪洪水特征

2015年7月中旬开始至8月初,新疆地区受东移的伊朗高压控制,新疆南疆塔里木河流域及其周边区域遭遇历史同期罕见高温天气.南疆地区和天山山区7月平均气温分别为27.9℃、17.8℃,较常年分别偏高2.3℃、2.6℃,偏高幅度均居历史同期第一位;南疆及天山山区共计42站7月平均气温突破同期历史极值,使该地区从高空到地面不同高度气温都同时升高.0℃层高度都高于雪线高度,导致南疆多条河流发生冰雪消融性洪水,造成不同程度的洪水灾害.此次由高温天气产生的多条河流冰雪消融性洪水,由于具有充足的水热因子,致使南疆多条河流超过警戒流量和保证流量.尼雅河出现有实测资料以来第2位的洪水,阿克苏库玛拉克河发生有实测资料以来第3位的洪水;发生洪水的河流范围之广、持续时间之长历史罕见,叶尔羌河、玉龙喀什河、喀拉喀什河超警戒流量持续时间在半个月以上,叶尔羌河达到25 d.通过对历年冰雪消融性洪水资料分析,洪峰流量和日流量（洪量）与高空温度有较好的相关性,由此建立冰雪消融性洪水预报模型,应用在2015年夏季洪水预报中取得明显的效果,对于今后预报此类洪水提供了有益的借鉴.     

ν-支持向量机洪水预报模型研究

为了提高洪水过程的非线性拟合能力和预报精度,对支持向量机洪水预报模型进行了深入研究。针对鸭绿江流域临江站的实际情况,建立了临江站洪水过程ν-SVR预报模型,采用1998~2014年间的大水年份降水资料和洪水过程资料对ν-SVR预报模型进行了率定和验证,并与线性动态系统模型、BP人工神经网络模型和ε-SVR模型进行了比较。结果表明:ν-SVR洪水预报模型比线性动态系统模型和BP人工神经网络具有较高的精度。ν-SVR洪水预报模型具有较好的非线性拟合能力和泛化能力,能很好地控制支持向量个数、降低模型的复杂程度,同时能保持良好的预报精度。     

多层递阶方法在洪水预报中的应用

阐述了用多层递阶方法进行洪水预报的基本原理和方法。以浙江省金华站为例,建立了该站年最大洪峰流量的多层递阶自回归预报模型,预报值与实测值吻合较好。该模型通过与三阶自回归预报模型进行比较,前者的预报精度优于后者。     

Use of biomarkers indices in a sediment core to evaluate potential pollution sources in a subtropical reservoir in Brazil

The presence of PAHs, n-alkanes, pristane, and phytanes in core sediment from the Vossoroca reservoir (Parana, southern Brazil) was investigated. The total concentration of the 16 PAHs varied from 15.5 to 1646 μg kg⁻¹. Naphthalene was present in all layers (3.34–74.0 μg kg⁻¹). The most abundant and dominant n-alkanes were n-C₁₅ and n-C₃₆, with average concentrations of 198.1 ± 46.8 and 522.9 ± 167.7 μg kg⁻¹, respectively. Lighter n-alkanes were distributed more evenly through the layers and showed less variation, specially n-C₉, n-C₁₂, and n-C₁₈, with average concentrations of 14.6 ± 3.0, 31.6 ± 1.9, and 95.0 ± 5.2 μg kg⁻¹, respectively; heavier n-alkanes were more unevenly distributed.     

Selenium levels in Lebanese environment

Very limited research has been conducted on selenium (Se) in Lebanese soils and forage crops but no work has been done on Se in water and locally produced vegetables and grains. This research was conducted in order to quantify Se levels and its availability in agricultural soils, vegetables and grains in Lebanon. Sixty-six (66) soil samples were collected from 33 selected sites in Lebanon: the Bekaa Valley, coastal and mountainous regions. Thirteen (13) different plant types (86 samples) were sampled from the same locations. Also, 13 spring water and 10 bottled water samples were collected. Soil samples were analyzed for their physical and chemical properties. Selenium was extracted from soils with: deionized–distilled water (Soluble-Se), KH₂PO₄-0.1 M (MKP-Se) and concentrated (HNO₃ + HCl) mixture (acid-Se). Plant Se was extracted by acid digestion on a hotplate. Selenium concentrations were measured by the inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrophotometer (ICP-MS). The values of Soluble-Se, MKP-Se and acid-Se ranged between 47 and 142, 147 and 400, and 1749 and 4713 μg/kg, respectively, with average values of 95, 306, and 3118 μg/kg and at a ratio of 1:3:30. Thus, Se extracted with deionized–distilled water is a good indicator for Se availability in the studied soils. The average Se concentration in plants was in the following order: radish > lettuce > cucumber > cabbage > parsley > alfalfa > onion (leaves) > broccoli > tomato > mint > chickpeas > wheat > onion (bulbs). The Se levels in water samples were in the safe range (less than 50 μg/L) and ranged between 2.14 and 17.6 μg/L. The levels of Se in the three soil extractants were positively correlated with each other and with organic matter content, salinity and phosphorus (P). Selenium levels in plant samples were positively correlated at a 0.01 significance level with clay and P content.     

The Triassic in Thailand

The tectonic movements which occurred in Thailand between the Permian and the Jurassic (Indosinian Orogeny) caused the uplifting and subsidence of areas which were dominant paleogeographic features during the Triassic. The strong orogenic movements during the Norian caused an alteration of the paleogeographic conditions.The two sedimentation cycles of the Triassic comprised a marine facies development from the Skythian to the early Norian and a terrestrial one from the later Norian to the Rhaetian/Liassic.The development of the facies and structure of the Triassic sediments, as well as the intrusion and effusion of igneous rocks, are due to the subduction of oceanic crust beginning in the Carboniferous and to the collision of the Eurasian with the Indochina Plate during the Norian.

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Zusammenfassung Die zwischen Perm und Jura in Thailand auftretenden tektonischen Bewegungen (Indosinische Orogenese) führten zur Bildung von Hebungs- und Senkungsgebieten, die die Paläogeographie in der Trias beherrschten. Die starken orogenen Bewegungen im Nor führten zu einer Umgestaltung der paläogeographischen Verhältnisse.Die beiden während der Trias auftretenden Sedimentationszyklen bestehen aus einer marinen Faziesentwicklung vom Skyth bis zum unteren Nor und einer terrestrischen vom oberen Nor bis zum Rhät/Lias.Die fazielle und strukturelle Entwicklung der Triassedimente sowie die Intrusion bzw. Effusion von Eruptivgesteinen sind auf die seit dem Karbon erfolgende Subduktion ozeanischer Kruste und die Kollision der Eurasiatischen Platte mit der Indochinesischen Platte im Nor zurückzuführen.

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Résumé Les mouvements tectoniques («Orogenèse Indosinienne») intervenus entre le Permien et le Trias en Thaïlande se sont traduits en soulèvements et affaissements qui ont dominé la paléogéographie du Trias. Les forts mouvements orogéniques du Norien ont conduit à transformer les rapports paléogéographiques.Les deux cycles sédimentaires du Trias consistent dans le développement d'un faciès marin du Scythien au Norien inférieur, et d'un faciès continental du Norien supérieur au Rhétien/Lias. L'évolution du faciès et de la structure des sédiments du Trias, l'intrusion et l'effusion des roches ignées sont attribuées à la subduction de la croute océanique consécutive au Carbonifère, et à la collision de la «Plaque Euroasiatique» avec la «Plaque Indochinoise» au Norien.

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Distribution of Hg in mangrove trees and its implication for Hg enrichment in the mangrove ecosystem

The aim of this study was to evaluate Hg distribution in mangrove plants and changes of Hg content during leaf aging; the contribution of litterfall to Hg enrichment in mangrove ecosystems is also discussed. Contents of total Hg (THg) and methylmercury (MeHg) in mangrove plants and sediments were determined. Contents of THg and MeHg in the sediments were 225 ± 157 ng/g and 0.800 ± 0.600 ng/g. Concentrations of THg and MeHg in the mangrove plants were 1760 ± 1885 ng/g and 0.721 ± 0.470 ng/g (dry weight), respectively, which were much higher than those in terrestrial plants. Enrichment of THg in mangrove plants was different, following the order Rhizophra apiculata > Rhizophora stylosa > Kandelia candel > Aegiceras corniculatum > Avicennia marina; while MeHg contents in mangrove plants decreased in the order of R. stylosa > K. candel > A. corniculatum > R. apiculata > A. marina. There were obvious interspecies differences, regional differences, individual differences and tissue differences between THg and MeHg contents of mangrove plants, all of which were closely related to the environmental and the physiological characteristics of mangrove plants. In juvenile leaves, mature leaves and leaf litter, THg contents ranged 55.3-1760 ng/g, 204-1800 ng/g, and 385-2130 ng/g (dry weight), respectively; MeHg contents ranged 0.17-2.39 ng/g, 0.01-1.28 ng/g, and 0.13-1.47 ng/g (dry weight), respectively. Except for A. corniculatum and Bruguier gymnorrhiza, THg content of mature leaves was always higher than that in juvenile leaves, but MeHg showed a contrasting trend. THg content of litter leaves was between that of juvenile leaves and mature leaves, while MeHg content was generally lower than that of juvenile leaves and mature leaves. In the mangrove ecosystem, Hg enrichment contributed by the litterfall decreased in the order of K. candel > A. corniculatum > A. marina.     

Evaluating methods for quantifying cation exchange in mildly calcareous sediments in Northern Alberta

Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and exchangeable cation composition are important properties in defining water–sediment interactions in contaminant transport scenarios, such as the seepage of process-affected water from oil sands tailings impoundments. At present, detailed characterization of these properties has been overlooked in the surficial Pleistocene sediments of the Athabasca Oil Sands region in Canada. Although a great variety of methods for determining CEC exist and continue to be developed, there is a deficiency in detailed comparisons amongst these methods in the literature, and consequently uncertainty still remains as to which extractants/methods are most suitable for use with sediments containing partially soluble carbonate salts. The present study (1) conducts an up-to-date evaluation of several distinct methods for their suitability in characterizing cation exchange properties in mildly calcareous sediments; using them to (2) evaluate the sorptive capacity and easily displaceable cations of mildly calcareous, surficial sediments near Fort McMurray, Alberta. Four conceptually different CEC methods were chosen: (a) a summation method (Lithium Chloride extractant); (b) a method that displaces an index cation after intermediary washes (Sodium Acetate–Ammonium Acetate); (c) a method using a high affinity cation complex (Silver Thiourea); and (d) a titration method using an organic cationic dye (Methylene Blue). Exchangeable cations were characterized using the Lithium Chloride and Silver Thiourea methods. Analysis suggests that the Methylene Blue test is least impacted by the presence of carbonate mineral phases. Results from field sediments suggest that the exchangeable cations, in decreasing abundance, consist of Ca > Mg > K > NH₄ > Na; while the CEC was found to be 4.7 ± 2.7 meq 100 g⁻¹ in the clay-rich glacial till, 0.7 ± 0.0 meq 100 g⁻¹ in the underlying sand and 4.1 ± 2.3 meq 100 g⁻¹ in the till-sand transition zone.     

Arsenic contamination in agricultural soils surrounding mining sites in relation to geology and mineralization types

A national-scale survey of the environment in and around mines was conducted to evaluate the status of total As contamination in agricultural soils surrounding numerous abandoned metal mines in Korea. This survey aimed to compare As concentrations in soils in relation to geology and mineralization types of mines. A total of 16,386 surface soil (0–15 cm in depth) samples were taken from agricultural lands near 343 abandoned mines (within 2 km of each mine). These samples were decomposed by aqua regia and analyzed for As by AAS with a hydride-generation (HG) device. To compare As levels in soils meaningfully with geology and mineralization types, three sub-classification criteria were adapted: (1) five mineralization types, (2) four valuable ore mineral types, and (3) four parent rock types. The average concentration of As in all the soils was 11.6 mg kg⁻¹ with a range of 0.01–4230 mg kg⁻¹. Based on the mineralization types, average As concentrations (mg kg⁻¹) in the soils decreased in the order of pegmatite (18.2) > hydrothermal replacement (14.5) > sedimentary deposits (12.4) > hydrothermal vein (10.7) > skarn (4.08). In terms of the valuable ore mineral types, the concentrations decreased in the order of Sn, W, Mo, Fe and Mn mines > Au, Ag, and base metal mines > Au and Ag mines ≈ base metal mines. For parent rock types, soils from metamorphic rocks and heterogeneous rocks exhibited enhanced As levels related to both igneous and sedimentary rocks. Therefore, it can be concluded that soils from highly altered rocks subject to metamorphic and igneous activities contained relatively high concentrations of As in the surface environment.     

Atmospheric mercury near Salmon Falls Creek Reservoir in southern Idaho

Gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) were measured over 2-week seasonal field campaigns near Salmon Falls Creek Reservoir in south-central Idaho from the summer of 2005 through the fall of 2006 and over the entire summer of 2006 using automated Tekran Hg analyzers. GEM, RGM, and particulate Hg (HgP) were also measured at a secondary site 90 km to the west in southwestern Idaho during the summer of 2006. The study was performed to characterize Hg air concentrations in the southern Idaho area for the first time, estimate Hg dry deposition rates, and investigate the source of observed elevated concentrations. High seasonal variability was observed with the highest GEM (1.91 ± 0.9 ng m⁻³) and RGM (8.1 ± 5.6 pg m⁻³) concentrations occurring in the summer and lower values in the winter (1.32 ± 0.3 ng m⁻³, 3.2 ± 2.9 pg m⁻³ for GEM, RGM, respectively). The summer-average HgP concentrations were generally below detection limit (0.6 ± 1 pg m⁻³). Seasonally averaged deposition velocities calculated using a resistance model were 0.034 ± 0.032, 0.043 ± 0.040, 0.00084 ± 0.0017 and 0.00036 ± 0.0011 cm s⁻¹ for GEM (spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively) and 0.50 ± 0.39, 0.40 ± 0.31, 0.51 ± 0.43 and 0.76 ± 0.57 cm s⁻¹ for RGM. The total annual RGM + GEM dry deposition estimate was calculated to be 11.9 ± 3.3 μg m⁻², or about 2/3 of the total (wet + dry) deposition estimate for the area. Periodic elevated short-term GEM (2.2–12 ng m⁻³) and RGM (50–150 pg m⁻³) events were observed primarily during the warm seasons. Back-trajectory modeling and PSCF analysis indicate predominant source directions to the SE (western Utah, northeastern Nevada) and SW (north-central Nevada) with fewer inputs from the NW (southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho).     

Monomethylmercury sources in a tropical artificial reservoir

The distribution and speciation of mercury (Hg) in the water column, the inputs (wet deposition and tributaries) and the outputs (atmospheric evasion and outlet) of an artificial partially anoxic tropical lake (Petit-Saut reservoir, French Guiana) were investigated on a seasonal basis in order to appraise the cycling and transformations of this metal. The total mercury (HgT) concentrations in the oxygenated epilimnetic waters averaged 5 ± 3 pmol L⁻¹ in the unfiltered samples (HgT_UNF) and 4 ± 2 pmol L⁻¹ in the dissolved (HgT_D) phase (<0.45 μm). On average, the monomethylmercury (MMHg) constituted 8%, 40% and 18% of the HgT in the dissolved phase, the particulate suspended matter and in the unfiltered samples, respectively. Covariant elevated concentrations of particulate MMHg and chlorophyll a in the epilimnion suggest that phytoplankton is an active component for the MMHg transfer in the lake. In the anoxic hypolimnion the HgT_UNF averages 13 ± 6 pmol L⁻¹ and the HgT_D 8 ± 4 pmol L⁻¹. The averages of MMHg_P and MMHg_D in hypolimnetic waters were two and three times the corresponding values of the epilimnion, 170 ± 90 pmol g⁻¹ and 0.9 ± 0.5 pmol L⁻¹, respectively. In the long dry and wet seasons, at the flooded forest and upstream dam sampling stations, the vertical profiles of MMHg_D concentrations accounted for two distinct maxima: one just below the oxycline and the other near the benthic interface. Direct wet atmospheric deposition accounted for 14 moles yr⁻¹ HgT_UNF, with 0.7 moles yr⁻¹ as MMHg_UNF, while circa 76 moles yr⁻¹ of HgT_UNF, with 4.7 moles yr⁻¹ as MMHg_UNF, coming from tributaries. Circa 78 moles (∼17% as MMHg) are annually exported through the dam, while 23 moles yr⁻¹ of Hg⁰ evolve in the atmosphere. A mass balance calculation suggests that the endogenic production of MMHg_UNF attained 8.1 moles yr⁻¹, corresponding to a methylation rate of 0.06% d⁻¹. As a result, the Petit-Saut reservoir is a large man-made reactor that has extensively altered mercury speciation in favor of methylated species.     

羌塘盆地中生代源岩中动物型原沥青的成因及意义

通过对羌塘盆地中生代碳酸盐岩中广泛存在的环状、串珠状动物型原沥青进行显微傅立叶红外、热模拟及光性变化特征的研究，结果发现；动物型原沥青形成于有孔虫的壳壁（外皮），在不同温度的热模拟实验中，其光性变化与镜质组具有明显的相关性，与沥青的热演化特征基本相似，因此，其反射率（Rb)可作为青藏高原中生代碳酸盐岩源岩成熟度评价的基础。     

Metallogeny and environmental impact of Hg in Zn deposits in China

Zinc smelting is currently regarded as one of the most important atmospheric Hg emission sources in the world. In order to assess the potential environmental impacts of Hg from Zn smelting in China, the distribution of total Hg concentration (HgT) in Zn concentrates (ZCs) from 100 Zn deposits in China was investigated. It was found that HgT varies depending on the ore types and their geneses. Zinc concentrates from sedimentary-exhalative deposits (SEDEX, geometric mean = 48.2 μg/g) have the highest HgT. The possible explanation is that the sources of mineralizing solutions for SEDEX deposits are deep formational brines in contact with sedimentary rocks, and there are much higher background Hg contents in sedimentary rocks. Zinc concentrates from volcanic hosted massive sulfide deposits (VMS, geometric mean = 11.5 μg/g) and Mississippi Valley-Type (MVT, geometric mean = 10.1 μg/g) deposits have intermediate HgT. VMS may receive most of their Hg from fluid–rock interaction and/or by direct input of gaseous Hg from a mantle source. However, the source of metals within MVTs may be the low-temperature hydrothermal solution formed by diagenetic recrystallization of the carbonates. Intrusion related deposits (IRs) have the lowest HgT (Geomean = 2.4 μg/g), and the dispersion of Hg in the IRs seems to be influenced by the temperature of ore formation and/or the nature of wall–rock alteration. Finally, it was estimated that the annual Hg emission to the atmosphere from Zn smelting in China was about 107.7 tons in 2006.