Recovery from demographic shock in the New Länder of Germany

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, East Germany experienced a demographic shock as the ensuing insecurity and disorientation of the population was mirrored in their demographic behaviour. The situation is examined with respect to marriage, fertility and mortality. There are now signs of recovery but most people in the New Länder are still traumatised by events: nuptiality and fertility are still extremely low, while mortality is rapidly moving towards West German levels. Future demographic development will very much depend on socio-economic development and the provision of both hard and soft infrastructure conducive to stable partnerships and families since the current 'framework' has proved to be particularly unfriendly to women and children.     

Transformation processes in Moscow and intra-urban stratification of population

Major trends of social restructuring of Moscow population and processes of intra-urban segregation are discussed. The article comprises two main parts. The first part deals with differences between the population of Moscow and that of Russia based on the main socio-economic indicators. In the second part, emphasis is placed on the urban processes of social stratification of the population on the basis of analysis of the demographic and employment patterns of the population and peculiarities of the functioning housing market. The merging of top government officials and new business elites is stressed. A conclusion is drawn about the variation of the character of urban population differentiation and its transition to a stage of property-based spatial segregation.     

Jerusalem since 1967: A profile of a reunited city

Over a decade after the reunification of Jerusalem, two major issues arise concerning the urban reality created after 1967. First, the extent to which West and East Jerusalem in fact now form one urban unit and second, the nature of relationships which exist between Jews and Arabs, especially in the socio-economic area.The examination of the residential pattern, the provision of services and of employment, might provide us with some important insights.It may be stated that after reunification the once existent physical dividing line between West and East Jerusalem has virtually no significance, whether one considers the basic landuse pattern or the kind of movement of people, goods and services. However, there continues to be a line which separates the Jewish from the Arab population. Indeed, while segregation characterizes the pattern of residence, the location of private enterprise and the consumption of certain public services, mutual contact and interdependence do occur to a greater extent in various economic areas and particularly in the commercial and labour markets.In many respects this new urban reality resembles that which had existed before the city was divided. After 1967 as before 1948, it was the basically different socio-economic characteristics which distinguished between Jews and Arabs — as well as the particular political situation — which for the most part determined the patterns of co-existence of the two communities in Jerusalem.     

Population shifts and local democratic representation in Eastern Germany

The shift to market forces in East Germany has fundamentally reconfigured its social and economic geography. In particular, spatial inequalities between localities and regions have re-emerged forcefully in response to new values, expectations and preferences. Increased mobility through private transport, changing job opportunities, educational choices and desire for new housing qualities have inter alia created new parameters for the population's lives. The responses i.a. in the form of migration have altered demographic structures and spatial patterns of the population considerably, often varying significantly over relatively short distances within and between regions. After initial population losses generally through outmigration from East to West Germany, population losses in cities occurred in favour of suburban areas, and rural depopulation in favour of the cities; creating a highly differentiated basis for future development through new urban-rural contrasts and differences between urban regions. This paper will outline some of these processes and demonstrate their effects on the already-considerable inequalities inherited from communism. Attention will also be given to the effects of changing population structures and patterns on local government and the future prospects for an indigenously supported, sustainable economic development for regions and the likely pathways of transformation and adjustment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

From picket fences to iron gates: suburbanization and gated communities in Phoenix,Las Vegas and Seattle

Suburbanization has been a prominent urban process in the United States since the World War II. It has transformed American cities in profound ways in every single aspect of urban development; from population and wealth distributions, through political organization and affiliations, to the built environment. This paper investigates the link between gated communities and the process of suburbanization in the context of socio-economic inequality. It has been shown time and again in the scholarly literature on suburbanization, that suburban neighborhoods in American cities have been traditionally more affluent and less diverse than central cities. The research on gated communities in the US also shows that they are, on average, more affluent compared to other communities in terms of family income and housing values. Are gated communities then simply a new form of suburban communities? Is the gated community in fact a suburban community with the added element of security features? The paper investigates these questions based on segregation and spatial analyses. The research contributes to the long line of studies on suburbanization, gating and the larger issues of urban inequality.     

Anthropogenic gadolinium as a microcontaminant in tap water used as drinking water in urban areas and megacities

Gadolinium chelates have been used since 1988 as contrast agents in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and produce positive anthropogenic Gd anomalies in rare earth element (REE) patterns of river and lake waters. These Gd compounds are not removed in wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) due to their high stabilities, and are transferred to surface waters with the clearwater discharge from WWTP. Through natural and induced bank filtration, the anthropogenic Gd is also transported into groundwater. To date, there are no related acute health risks known, but the potential long-term effects of exposure to low doses have not been studied.Here REE data is presented for tap water from the City of Berlin, Germany, a metropolitan area that is known for its anthropogenic Gd-rich rivers and groundwater. Natural and induced bank filtration play important roles in Berlin’s freshwater resource management. Therefore, the extent to which municipal tap water that is used as drinking water is affected by anthropogenic Gd was investigated. Large positive Gd anomalies were found in tap water samples from the western districts of Berlin, indicating the presence of up to 18 ng/L of anthropogenic Gd on top of a geogenic background of 0.54 ng/L. In marked contrast, the amount of anthropogenic Gd in tap water from the eastern districts of Berlin is negligible to minor (maximum of 0.18 ng/L on top of a geogenic background of 0.26 ng/L). This strong regional difference likely results from the specific historical situation of Berlin, where before the re-unification of Germany in 1990, natural and induced bank filtration were necessities in isolated West Berlin, but unimportant in East Berlin, a situation that has seen little change during the past 20 years. Thus, drinking water resources in the western part of Berlin are more strongly affected by anthropogenic Gd than those in the eastern part. The high anthropogenic Gd concentrations found in some tap waters in Berlin clearly show that the Gd initially used as contrast agent is removed neither during natural nor artificial water treatment. This is further evidence for the high stability and long environmental half-lives of these compounds. Considering that the amount of anthropogenic Gd in the Havel River in Berlin has increased more than 4-fold over the past 15 years and that water migration from the Havel River to the groundwater wells take years to decades, the amounts of anthropogenic Gd in West Berlin tap water will increase further over the next few years. Due to its presence in tap water that is consumed as drinking water, millions of people are exposed to low doses of these anthropogenic Gd chelates. Additional data for the City of London, UK, for example, indicate that this is not a local phenomenon confined to the City of Berlin, but rather a common feature of tap water in metropolitan areas and megacities in countries with highly developed health care systems. Hence, the REE distribution in tap waters used for human consumption should be monitored, especially since the anthropogenic Gd chelates can also be used as tracers for emerging microcontaminants such as steroids, pharmaceuticals and personal care products.     

The changing distribution of incomes in Dutch cities: myth and reality

Segregation is a central concept in the debate on urban issues, both in scientific literature and in society in general. The process of globalisation is particularly expected to increase polarisation and segregation in cities, resulting in the emergence of ‘ghettos’ or – as they are called in the Netherlands – ‘income neighbourhoods’. This paper tries to judge the situation in Dutch cities by studying changes over time; by looking at segregation within cities as well as between cities and the wider metropolitan area; and by comparing socio-economic differences with socio-cultural and socio-demographic characteristics. The analysis shows that the empirical facts are quite different from the ongoing debate. It establishes that socio-economic segregation is more moderate than segregation with respect to the other two dimensions. Contrary to suggestions from the vernacular debate, segregation within cities is scarcely increasing, but between cities and the surrounding area it is rising with respect to all three dimensions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Ethno-ideological segregation and metropolitan development

The effect of ethnic residential segregation on metropolitan development and expansion is examined. The ethno-ideologically divided city is an extreme case of segregation and Jerusalem, an example of such a city, provides a good case study. Deviations from patterns of population change predicted by the theory of the urban population density gradient are analysed non-statistically using the available data. When the two ethnic sectors are treated as separate cities, these deviations do not seem to be very important and population change conforms to the model. This seen in the light of local patterns of segregation seems to imply that at the local ‘tactical’ level domination and exclusion of the other group seems to result, whereas on the regional strategic level power is shared more equally and economic and demographic factors play the major role in fashioning the distribution of population change.     

Characteristics of post-socialist urban transformation in East Central Europe

The development of the post-socialist city has already been characterised by substantial restructuring processes. Particular emphasis should be drawn to the take-off of the tertiary sector and the comprehensive blight phenomena in the previously industrial areas. The urban housing sector has witnessed increasing housing affordability problems, a marginalisation of communal housing stock, an increase of segregation and an intensification of the decay in the old housing stock. In all East Central European states the spatial development processes of industry and services within the cities basically show clear parallels to the pattern of urban development in continental Europe. In Hungary housing policy, tenure structure and the level of segregation already show relatively closer similarities to the neoliberal, Anglo–American pattern of development. The other ECE states show closer similarities to the corporatist welfare states of continental Europe. As far as medium-term urban development in East Central Europe is concerned, it is to be assumed that – regardless of the specific path of further development – overall solutions shall not be found for the fundamental problems which are the legacy of the socialist era – the decay of old housing stock, large scale derelict industrial areas and the extent and deficiencies of high-rise housing estates. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Orbital timing of the Indian,East Asian and African boreal monsoons and the concept of a ‘global monsoon’

Our understanding of monsoon circulation timing’s at the orbital scale is currently a matter of debate. Here, we compare previous and recently published results of Indian, East Asian, West African and East African monsoon variability. We note different timings between the East African, West African, Indian and East-Asian monsoon systems for the most recent 45 ka, where the age models are constrained by AMS dating. On this basis, we construct different orbital forcing “reference curves” and apply them to the 200 ka time period for the different monsoon systems. Our results indicate that the ‘global monsoon’ concept at the orbital scale is a misnomer. We find real regional differences in the timing of the monsoon response to orbital forcing and differences in the weight of precession and obliquity in the monsoon records. This work highlights the necessity of studies aimed at understanding the underlying physics of these regional response patterns. This is crucial to a better understanding of monsoon dynamics and improved climate model simulations and comparisons with proxy data.     

Agriculture versus tourism in rural areas of the Polish Carpathians

The Polish Carpathians is one of the regions with the best rural demographic and economic situation in Poland, as indicated by the growth of population, the very advantageous sex and age structure, the low unemployment rate and good housing standards. However, the situation in agriculture is complicated due to the unfavourable natural conditions of the mountainous terrain, the fragmentation of holdings and the low level of efficiency. On the other hand, tourism is a positive factor in the socio-economic transformation of the Carpathian countryside. Tourism was a significant activity even before the Second World War when lodgings were sought in private houses in many villages of the Sub-Tatra, Podhale Basin and the Silesian and Sacz Beskides. The villages currently active as tourist centres show the most dynamic development and the highest level of the socio-economic infrastructure.     

Rural gentrification in Catalonia, Spain: A case study of migration, social change and conflicts in the Empordanet area

The intensity of rural depopulation in Catalonia has diminished since the 1980s. New population growth patterns are occurring in rural areas, basically due to immigration. Although there has been a certain awareness of the magnitude of this process and its territorial distribution, little is known about the protagonists in this immigration and the impact on rural municipalities. Results are presented from a study of the immigration process in a group of rural inland municipalities close to the Costa Brava, a Mediterranean coastal region with extensive tourism. The great beauty of the landscape and the existence of housing stock that is being abandoned but remains desirable have led to a population influx from Catalonia’s large urban areas, especially Barcelona, purchasing these homes as a primary or secondary residence.This has led to rehabilitation of the housing stock, but also to higher housing prices and the resulting exodus of the young local population that cannot afford them; a potential source of conflict between the local population and the newcomers. The study is based on census data and statistical records, as well as extensive fieldwork, including interviews with local residents, newcomers and key informants.     

Housing inequalities in Bucharest: shallow changes in hesitant transition

Much has been said, yet little remains known, about the impacts of the changes associated with post-socialist transition on housing inequalities in metropolitan Central and Eastern Europe. To some extent, this depends on the scarcity of ‘hard evidence’ about the socialist epoch against which the subsequent developments may be gauged. Based on a case study of Bucharest, the Romanian capital and one of the region’s major cities, this study investigates various lines of housing inequality using data from a 20 % sample of the national censuses of 1992 and 2002. With only minor changes having taken place since the revolutionary events of late 1989, the year 1992 provides an accurate picture of the housing inequalities inherited from the socialist epoch, whereas the new societal order had largely been established by 2002. We use linear regression and binary logistic regression modeling to identify the factors that predict living space and level of facilities. The results suggest that the first decade of transition did not exert any major influences on the housing inequalities inherited from socialism, with the exception of notable improvements at the very top of the social pyramid. This finding is at odds with the literature that highlights the (suggested) effects of socio-economic polarization on the residential structure of cities after socialism. However, the results from 1992 indicate that housing was segmented along socio-economic lines already under socialism, and perhaps more so than one would have expected in the light of the literature on housing inequalities during this period.     

4 000 a B.P.以来中巴经济走廊北段塔什库尔干气候变化对东西方文化交流的影响

新疆塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县地处中巴经济走廊北段, 自古以来就是东西方文化交流的核心地带。基于地质记录和考古发现, 对该县4 000 a B.P.以来东西方文化交流与气候环境变化的关系进行了梳理与分析。结果发现, 研究区特有的地理环境和气候变化对文化发展与传播起着重要的影响,3 500 ~ 2 800 a B.P.的干旱气候对应了中巴经济走廊东西方文化交流中断, 随着气候好转, 东西方文化交流在该区域再次畅通; 2 600 ~ 2 200 a B.P.气候变干与中巴经济走廊北段文化交流再次衰落对应; 历史时期丝绸之路的兴衰与气候变化密切相关。     

欧亚大陆及边缘海岩石圈的结构特性

从地球层块结构的研究思路出发,运用构造解析的理论和方法,对东亚及西太平洋地区人工地震测深和天然地震面波层析成像进行构造解析,发现岩石圈中下部存在形态各异、大小不等的高速块体,结合地质学、地球化学及其他地球物理学标志的综合研究将其称为幔块构造,高速块体或幔块构造是控制东亚西太平洋岩石圈构造格局和岩石圈表层构造变形最基本条件之一。在系统研究该区岩石圈高速块体或幔块构造三维几何结构基础上,建立起东亚西太平洋岩石圈八种三维几何结构型式:克拉通陆根状结构、高原陆根状结构、造山带楔状结构、碎块状结构、香肠状结构、哑铃状结构、藕节状结构和板状结构,以及岩石圈形成与构造演化四种构造类型:克拉通型岩石圈、增厚型岩石圈、减薄型岩石圈和大洋型岩石圈。文章在详细论述岩石圈各结构构造类基本特征的基础上,认为全球最大的青藏高原具有增厚型岩石圈特性,存在大陆根,并且大陆根正在增厚过程中;地震层析成像显示,研究区存在全球最大的东亚大陆巨型裂谷体系,具有减薄型岩石圈特性,新生代晚期东亚大陆巨型裂谷体系被西太平洋沟弧盆体系叠加与改造。根据岩石圈三维结构型式,探讨了岩石圈形成机制与演化模式,东亚大陆边缘岩石圈大规模伸展拆沉减薄作用以及软流圈和地幔物质上涌加热作用与青藏高原岩石圈大规模俯冲碰撞?入增厚作用是东亚大陆及边缘海晚中生代以来地幔动力学最基本的表现型式,从而形成全球最大的青藏高原和全球最大的东亚大陆巨型裂谷体系。     

Gypsies in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic: Geographic and demographic characteristics

Geographic and demographic characteristics of Gypsies were elaborated on the basis of population census' results in 1970 and 1980. In 1980, there were about 300 000 of Gypsies in Czechoslovakia (2% of the total population). The fast numerical growth of Gypsies becomes a subject of increasing interest of both specialists and large public. According to the prognosis till 2005, in the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic will be about 495 000 of Gypsies (3% of the total population). The spatial structure of Gypsies is very uneven, they are concentrated mainly in the East Slovakian districts. The differences between Gypsies and other inhabitants in the demographic behaviour are evident from the age structure. Gypsies are demographically young population with the progressive type of the age structure (high proportion of children and low proportion of the aged). Gypsy women have a high level of fertility during the whole childbearing period. The number of live born children per one Gypsy woman was 6,0 in the age group 45–49 (total population 2,3) in 1980. The effort has been made to estimate the expectation of life of Gypsies on the basis of results from population census 1970 and 1980. The probability of death was derived from the probability of survival between 1970 and 1980. In the period 1971–1980 the expectation of life at birth of Gypsy men was 55,3 years and 59,5 years for Gypsy women. The level of life expectancy like this we can find in developing countries of the Third World. Changes in the demographic behaviour occur as permanent changes only on the basis of the overall social and economic development. The consequences of this development appear usually after a certain delay, measured by the length of generation, not by calendar years.     

A demographic model for Palaeolithic technological evolution: The case of East Asia and the Movius Line

The Pleistocene record of East Asia continues to pose controversial questions for palaeoanthropology, especially with regard to Palaeolithic technological patterns. In recent years, an increased understanding of the effect of demography on cultural transmission has improved our understanding of the incidence, proliferation, and elaboration of technological traditions. Here, we present a generalised null model of Lower–Middle Palaeolithic technological evolution, which expressly links cultural transmission theory and demographic factors (i.e. population size, density, and social interconnectedness). Consistent with our model, Africa exhibits evidence of major technological innovations during the Early to Middle Pleistocene, due to a constant source of population and growth due to accumulation through time. In comparison, Pleistocene East Asian assemblages are dominated by Mode 1-type technologies, and only a few localized occurrences of bifacial technology are currently known. We detail evidence suggesting that during much of the Pleistocene a combination of biogeographical, topographical, and dispersal factors are likely to have resulted in relatively lower effective population sizes in East Asian hominins compared with western portions of the Old World, particularly Africa. Thus, the Movius Line – as is the case with its namesake ‘Wallace's line’ – must be examined in terms of its biogeographical context, if the divergent evolutionary trajectories of entities either side of it are to be understood. Most parsimoniously, the Movius Line sensu lato is thus a ‘line’ which represents the crossing of a demographic threshold. Under the parameters of our (testable) null model, geographically and temporally sporadic occurrences of bifacial technology in East Asia are the product of short-lived instances of technological convergence. As a consequence, the in situ evolution of Levallois (Mode 3) was inhibited in East Asia due to the constraints of relatively smaller effective population sizes.     

House types and their spatial patterns in Singapore

Four major groups of residential houses coexist in Singapore. They are: (a) bungalows, semi-detached and terrace houses; (b) public flats; (c) private flats; (c) shophouses; and (d) attap and zinc-roofed houses. Each group of houses has its own features and specific locations. The share of each group of houses in the total housing stock as well as in a census unit varies with time. The aim of this paper is three-fold. Firstly, it gives an overview of the house types, their features, growth and spatial spread; secondly, it examines the spatial patterns of housing as in 1980; and finally, it outlines the future trends of housing development. The present composition and the spatial pattern of housing in Singapore are very much a result of government planning since 1960. Having solved the problem of housing, the Singapore government now aims at improving the quality of public housing which presently accomodates some 88% of the total population of 2.7 million to a level close to that of the private housing.     

Skilled international migrants and urban structure in Western Europe

The few existing empirical studies of high-status migrants in Western European cities suggest that classical urban models describing and explaining the segregation of immigrant groups in the city do not apply to these movers. When compared to low-status movers of the recent past, high-status movers display certain marked differences, particularly in the presence of dependants from the outset and in voluntary extensive employer involvement in housing provision or search, but there are also similarities in their restriction to the privately-rented housing sector. The characteristics and location of high-status migrants and of gastarbeiter in Vienna are here compared, demonstrating that there is a need for new urban models to deal with high-status migrant settlement in Western European cities.     

Population pressure, agricultural intensification and changes in rural systems in Bangladesh

Sustainable agricultural growth is the key to rural system changes that include changes in rural bio-physical environment, economic infrastructure and social conditions. The present study has examined the temporal changes in 18 selected indicators of rural systems in Bangladesh during the period 1975-2000, and explored the influences of demographic, market forces, environmental, institutional and technological factors inducing and mediating such changes. An analysis of 64 district level published census data showed significant increase in agricultural intensity, cropping patterns, land productivity and farm income; decline in labor and technological productivities; and major improvement in rural housing, economic and social conditions during this period. Spatially, major agricultural growth and rural development were observed in districts with high population density, less constrained environments, and better access to markets, irrigation canals, and capital loans.