Evaluation of a climate simulation in Europe based on the WRF–NOAH model system: precipitation in Germany

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with its land surface model NOAH was set up and applied as regional climate model over Europe. It was forced with the latest ERA-interim reanalysis data from 1989 to 2008 and operated with 0.33° and 0.11° resolution. This study focuses on the verification of monthly and seasonal mean precipitation over Germany, where a high quality precipitation dataset of the German Weather Service is available. In particular, the precipitation is studied in the orographic terrain of southwestern Germany and the dry lowlands of northeastern Germany. In both regions precipitation data is very important for end users such as hydrologists and farmers. Both WRF simulations show a systematic positive precipitation bias not apparent in ERA-interim and an overestimation of wet day frequency. The downscaling experiment improved the annual cycle of the precipitation intensity, which is underestimated by ERA-interim. Normalized Taylor diagrams, i.e., those discarding the systematic bias by normalizing the quantities, demonstrate that downscaling with WRF provides a better spatial distribution than the ERA interim precipitation analyses in southwestern Germany and most of the whole of Germany but degrades the results for northeastern Germany. At the applied model resolution of 0.11°, WRF shows typical systematic errors of RCMs in orographic terrain such as the windward–lee effect. A convection permitting case study set up for summer 2007 improved the precipitation simulations with respect to the location of precipitation maxima in the mountainous regions and the spatial correlation of precipitation. This result indicates the high value of regional climate simulations on the convection-permitting scale.     

地面自动站资料质量控制方案及应用

为满足精细、 短时天气预报的需求, 我国地面自动站（AWS）观测系统的建设日趋完善。AWS资料在数值预报系统中没得到充分使用的原因之一是AWS观测资料的特殊性及数值预报系统缺少有效针对AWS观测资料的质量控制(QC)方案。本文AWS QC方案在参考国际先进的AWS QC方案基础上, 根据我国地面自动站的特点和数值天气预报模式对地面资料应用的要求设计。其目的是解决AWS观测资料在数值预报中应用的质量问题。本方案采用多种质量控制技术, 其中包括台站气候极值检查、 要素间一致性检查、 时间一致性检查、 持续性检查、 背景场一致性检查、 空间一致性检查、 综合决策算法、 自动统计评估反馈技术。本文从检查方法对错误资料的敏感度和确定性进行理论分析表明, 该方案具有更强的敏感度和确定性。将该方案应用于北京地区2006年8月AWS实际观测资料检验, 结果表明, 该方案能有效地识别观测资料中存在明显错误的资料, 有效地为地面自动站资料在数值模式中的应用提供客观质量依据。     

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 2: precipitation

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as ‘field’ or ‘global’ significance. The block length for the local resampling tests is precisely determined to adequately account for the time series structure. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Daily precipitation climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. While the downscaled precipitation distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones in most regions in summer, the biases of some distribution characteristics are significant over large areas in winter. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate stationary fine-scale climate features in the daily precipitation field over regions of complex topography in both seasons and appropriate transient fine-scale features almost everywhere in summer. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.     

国家级天气预报检验分析系统建设与应用

为了适应精细化预报和业务管理的发展需求,国家气象中心建设开发了基于Web的国家级天气预报检验分析系统。系统分为预报检验、检验文件解析处理、检验数据查询分析与检验平台管理4个功能模块,关键技术包括标准化的数据管理、开放式的算法模块管理与调度和检验数据的可视化分析。系统建立了规范高效的检验业务数据流程,兼容处理预报分析制作系统（MICAPS）数据、GRIB2数据、城镇报数据、自动气象站数据等其他专业气象数据,涵盖了国家级省级智能网格预报、全国城镇天气预报、定量降水预报、大城市空气质量预报等数十项检验业务产品,给出了空间分布、柱状图及数据表格等展现形式。系统为全国各级预报员、模式开发人员和管理人员提供预报检验反馈信息,为各省以及国家级预报业务考核提供了信息支撑;同时系统提供逐旬、月、年度的智能网格预报以及城镇天气预报的检验结果对比,有力支撑了智能网格预报产品业务研发和业务试验。     

LINET—An international lightning detection network in Europe

During the past years a VLF/LF lightning detection network (LINET) was developed at the University of Munich, which provides continuous data for both research and operational purposes. In particular, the network introduces five new features: a) total lightning capability: both cloud-to-ground strokes (CG) and cloud lightning (IC) are measured; b) low-amplitude reporting: weak lightning events from discharge channel with currents well below 5 kA are detected within the central part of the network, whereby IC events dominate; c) new 3D-discrimination: a time-of-arrival method is utilized to separate CG from IC with good reliability, provided that the sensor baseline does not exceed ~ 250 km; d) IC emission height: for each cloud event a height is determined which is thought to reflect the central region of the involved channel; and e) optimised location accuracy: due to precision and combined action of all influential network components, complemented by site-error corrections, the position accuracy of strokes reaches an average value as small as ~ 150 m, whereby false locations (‘outliers’) rarely occur. During international co-operations LINET has been deployed in four continents: Europe (initially Germany), South America (area of Bauru, Brazil), Australia (around Darwin), and Central Africa (Benin). Since the features quoted above could be verified in the tests, a 65-sensor network was established in Europe and started on May 1, 2006, in co-operation with the service company nowcast. LINET covers a wide area approximately from longitude − 10° to 25° to latitude 35° to 66°; it is available for scientific projects and officially utilized by the German Weather Service for operational purposes. Meanwhile, the network was extended by deployment of additional sites so that it comprises about 90 sensors in 17 countries.     

Field significance of performance measures in the context of regional climate model evaluation. Part 1: temperature

A new approach for rigorous spatial analysis of the downscaling performance of regional climate model (RCM) simulations is introduced. It is based on a multiple comparison of the local tests at the grid cells and is also known as “field” or “global” significance. New performance measures for estimating the added value of downscaled data relative to the large-scale forcing fields are developed. The methodology is exemplarily applied to a standard EURO-CORDEX hindcast simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the land surface model NOAH at 0.11 ^° grid resolution. Monthly temperature climatology for the 1990–2009 period is analysed for Germany for winter and summer in comparison with high-resolution gridded observations from the German Weather Service. The field significance test controls the proportion of falsely rejected local tests in a meaningful way and is robust to spatial dependence. Hence, the spatial patterns of the statistically significant local tests are also meaningful. We interpret them from a process-oriented perspective. In winter and in most regions in summer, the downscaled distributions are statistically indistinguishable from the observed ones. A systematic cold summer bias occurs in deep river valleys due to overestimated elevations, in coastal areas due probably to enhanced sea breeze circulation, and over large lakes due to the interpolation of water temperatures. Urban areas in concave topography forms have a warm summer bias due to the strong heat islands, not reflected in the observations. WRF-NOAH generates appropriate fine-scale features in the monthly temperature field over regions of complex topography, but over spatially homogeneous areas even small biases can lead to significant deteriorations relative to the driving reanalysis. As the added value of global climate model (GCM)-driven simulations cannot be smaller than this perfect-boundary estimate, this work demonstrates in a rigorous manner the clear additional value of dynamical downscaling over global climate simulations. The evaluation methodology has a broad spectrum of applicability as it is distribution-free, robust to spatial dependence, and accounts for time series structure.     

Weather type dependent quality assessment of a satellite-based rainfall detection scheme for the mid-latitudes

The sensitivity of a recently published satellite-based rainfall detection scheme with differing frontal weather regimes is investigated for 676 precipitation scenes between January and August 2004. For this purpose, the rain area classified by the recent Rain Area Delineation Scheme during Night time (RADS-N) was compared to the rain area detected by the radar network of the German Weather Service. The validation results indicate that the rain area detected by RADS-N is highly consistent with the radar network (mean POD: 0.62; mean FAR: 0.52; mean ETS: 0.22). However, the bias indicates a mean overestimation of 42%. The classification results show that the satellite technique performs better in cold frontal situations and thunderstorms. Therefore, further investigations are needed to address the overall performance as well as the dependency on different weather situations and in order to allow reliable rain area detection during night-time, independent of the prevailing weather situation.     

A procedure for automated quality control and homogenization of historical daily temperature and precipitation data (APACH): part 1: quality control and application to the Argentine weather service stations

The present paper describes the quality-control component of an automatic procedure (APACH: A Procedure for Automated Quality Control and Homogenization of Weather Station Data) developed to control quality and homogenize the historical daily temperature and precipitation data from meteorological stations. The quality-control method is based on a set of decision-tree algorithms analyzing separately precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature. All our tests are non-parametric and therefore are potentially useful in regions or countries presenting different climates as those observed in Argentina. The method is applied to the 1959–2005 historical daily database of the Argentine National Weather Service. Our results are coherent with the history of the Weather Service and more specifically with the history of implementation of systematized quality control processes. In temperature, our method detects a larger number of suspect values before 1967 (when there was no quality control) and after 1997 (when only real-time quality control had been applied). In precipitation, the detection of error in extreme precipitations is complex, but our method clearly detected a strong decrease in the number of potential outliers after 1976 when the National Weather Service was militarized, and the network was strongly reduced, focusing more on airport weather stations. Also in precipitation, we analyze in detail the long dry sequences and are able to identify potential long erroneous sequences. This is important for the use of the data for hydrological or agricultural impact studies. Finally, all the data are flagged with codes representing the path followed by the record in our decision-tree algorithms. While each code is associated to one of the categories (“Useful”, “Need-Check”, “Doubtful” or “Suspect”), the final user is free to redefine such category-assignment.     

The Regularized WSM6 Microphysical Scheme and Its Validation in WRF 4D-Var

A cold cloud assimilation scheme was developed that fully considers the water substances, i.e., water vapor, cloud water, rain, ice, snow, and graupel, based on the single-moment WSM6 microphysical scheme and four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting data assimilation(WRFDA) system. The verification of the regularized WSM6 and its tangent linearity model(TLM) and adjoint mode model(ADM) was proven successful. Two groups of single observation a...     

WRF模式中的微物理过程及其预报对比试验

WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式系统是由许多美国研究部门及大学的科学家共同参与进行开发研究的新一代中尺度同化预报系统。本文主要对公开发布的WRF模式V2.0版本中使用的微物理过程方案进行简单介绍,并在国家气象中心建立的与T213中期预报模式相嵌套的预报系统的基础上,对不同微物理过程方案进行了降水预报对比试验和检验,对各方案的降水预报性能进行初步评估。试验结果表明,总体预报效果LIN方案较好,而对流参数化方案从降水落区预报和对流降水对总降水的贡献两方面看则是KF和NKF方案的预报效果较好。     

降水检验方案变化对降水检验评估效果的影响分析

为了实现对中尺度模式降水预报产品的合理化统计检验,在我国现有观测系统条件下,研究了24小时加密降水观测实况对降水统计检验评分的影响。过去的标准检验系统观测站为400站,分为9个区,目前业务试运行的加密检验系统采用的观测站为2510站,分为33个区。同时对国外常用的统计检验量ETS评分进行了初步的研究。通过对2005年7—8月我国近年来引进或自主发展的T213L31、HLAFS25、MM5、MESO-GRAPES60km和30km模式,WRF20km模式,以及日本及德国的全球模式的降水预报产品的统计学检验,主要得到如下结论:(1)加密检验系统和标准检验系统在站点分布和分区形式上有较大的差别,新旧检验系统对各模式和预报员全国降水预报的评估结论在大雨以下各级降水评估方面差别不大,结论基本相似,除中雨预报外,加密系统的TS评分均略低于标准检验的结果。暴雨以上评分的差别较大,其中部分模式的两个检验系统的预报偏差差别很大,说明暴雨以上的天气系统多为中小尺度系统,其发生的频率在加密系统中的反映可能更合理一些。(2)新的检验量ETS,对于全国这样较大的检验分区而言,大雨以下各级降水评分在量值上要小于TS评分,暴雨以上则比较接近,但其在多模式对比检验中所得的排序结论与TS和技巧评分相近,部分小雨空报较多的模式的评分有较大差别。(3)无论是加密检验,还是标准检验,各级降水检验中表现最好的模式是相同的。(4)分区相同、预报种类不同时,加密检验与标准检验的差别不同。对T213模式而言,两者在暴雨和大暴雨的预报偏差上的差别更显著一些,部分分区检验结论相反。而对预报员的预报而言,差别并不显著,检验结论一致。     

消息与动态

世界气象组织秘书长雅罗2005年11月访问气科院大气成分中心；美国马里兰大学气象系的张大林教授被邀请任灾害天气国家重点实验室海外主任；中国气象科学研究院与上海市气象局局院合作签字仪式；局、院、青海省领导参观大气成分观测与服务中心；中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室首届学术年会.     

非静力中尺度高分辨率模式模拟中的垂直坐标影响研究

近几年来,随着高性能计算机技术的高速发展,甚高分辨率的中尺度数值预报模式业务应用已成为可能,与之相关的一系列模式技术的新问题也随之提了出来,垂直坐标系的影响就是其中之一。文中借助于美国新一代数值预报模式WRF(WeatherReseachandForecast),比较了非静力中尺度模式高分辨率模拟应用的垂直坐标影响问题。研究表明,当选用几何高度(z)和气压(p)来构造地形追随坐标时,低层两坐标引起的误差基本一样,中高层高度地形追随坐标引起的误差小于气压地形追随坐标;而且分辨率越高差异愈大。高分辨率模拟结果也表明,这种差异趋势是存在的;此外,本文对天气过程的预报要素场进行了相关的分析。     

Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

Based on the B08RDP (Beijing 2008 Olympic Games Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project) that was launched by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) in 2004, a regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) at a 15-km horizontal resolution was developed at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Supplementing to the forecasters’ subjective affirmation on the promising performance of the REPS during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games (BOG), this paper focuses on the objective verification of the REPS for precipitation forecasts during the BOG period. By use of a set of advanced probabilistic verification scores, the value of the REPS compared to the quasi-operational global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) is assessed for a 36-day period (21 July–24 August 2008). The evaluation here involves different aspects of the REPS and GEPS, including their general forecast skills, specific attributes (reliability and resolution), and related economic values. The results indicate that the REPS generally performs significantly better for the short-range precipitation forecasts than the GEPS, and for light to heavy rainfall events, the REPS provides more skillful forecasts for accumulated 6- and 24-h precipitation. By further identifying the performance of the REPS through the attribute-focused measures, it is found that the advantages of the REPS over the GEPS come from better reliability (smaller biases and better dispersion) and increased resolution. Also, evaluation of a decision-making score reveals that a much larger group of users benefits from using the REPS forecasts than using the single model (the control run) forecasts, especially for the heavy rainfall events.     

Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia

When using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system it is necessary to choose between many parametrisations for each physics option. This study examines the performance of various physics scheme combinations on the simulation of a series of rainfall events near the south-east coast of Australia known as East Coast Lows. A thirty-six member multi-physics ensemble was created such that each member had a unique set of physics parametrisations. No single ensemble member was found to perform best for all events, variables and metrics. This is reflected in the fact that different climate variables are found to be sensitive to different physical parametrisations. While a standardised super-metric can be used to identify best performers, a step-wise decision approach described here, allows explicit recognition of the “robustness” of choosing one parameterisation over another, allowing the identification of a group of “equally robustly” performing physics combinations. These results suggest that the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic planetary boundary layer scheme and the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme can be chosen with some robustness. Possibly with greater confidence, the results also suggest that the Yonsei University planetary boundary layer scheme, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme and RRTMG radiation scheme should not be used in combination in this region. Results further indicate that the selection of physics scheme options has larger impact on model performance during the more intensive rainfall events.     

Simulation of the influence of aerosol particle characteristics on clouds and precipitation with LM-SPECS: Model description and first results

The novel model system LM-SPECS is presented combining a spectral bin microphysics scheme and the three-dimensional Lokalmodell (LM, today called COSMO) of the German Weather Service (“Deutscher Wetterdienst”). The model is designed to investigate in detail the interaction of atmospheric aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation. The microphysics scheme includes a combined spectrum of wetted aerosols, cloud droplets and rain drops. As a first application of the model, sensitivity studies on an artificial deep convective cloud were done. The results produced by LM-SPECS are satisfying. The studies show, e.g., that a diminished initial particle number leads to larger cloud droplets and thus to a higher efficiency of coalescence. This results in a larger amount of precipitation. Furthermore, studies on mixed phase clouds show the influence of varying ice nuclei, such as bacteria, kaolinite and soot, on cloud properties. Here, a more effective freezing leads to an increased number of ice particles with smaller radii. The results point to the importance of a detailed knowledge of the underlying microphysical processes in order to understand the formation of clouds and precipitation more accurately. Though to date the model was applied to artificial cases only, the use of the mesoscale weather model allows for more complex realistic cases which are subject to further studies.     

基于观测系统模拟试验的海表气象观测站点布局方案研究

为了科学设计黄渤海海洋气象边界层观测站网并研究观测网布局对数值天气预报模式的影响,本文采用模式误差、海洋气象要素特征区域资料统计分析和观测系统模拟试验（OSSE）方法,根据边界层雾、层云降水、小风与中等风速天气条件设计布局方案,并分析站点观测要素对数值预报模式的要素预报的影响。模拟试验数据使用了每6 h NCEP再分析资料FNL（NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data）、NCEP每天平均的高分辨率海温资料RTG_SST（Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature）和石油平台、浮标站等每小时实况观测资料,评估了黄渤海海洋气象站网布局各个方案的优缺点。评估结果表明,湿度和风的要素预报受实况风向风速条件影响,偏东和偏北风个例湿度要素预报较好。然而,在偏南中等风速个例中,风场预报要素更接近实况。温度场的分析综合结果显示,在海气相互作用影响较大的天气过程中,特征区域布站能明显提高温度要素的预报准确率。最后,综合分析多项模拟试验的结果,给出了改进数值预报准确率的海洋布站建议。     

Simulation of the influence of aerosol particle characteristics on clouds and precipitation with LM-SPECS: Model description and first results

The novel model system LM-SPECS is presented combining a spectral bin microphysics scheme and the three-dimensional Lokalmodell (LM, today called COSMO) of the German Weather Service (“Deutscher Wetterdienst”). The model is designed to investigate in detail the interaction of atmospheric aerosol particles, clouds and precipitation. The microphysics scheme includes a combined spectrum of wetted aerosols, cloud droplets and rain drops. As a first application of the model, sensitivity studies on an artificial deep convective cloud were done. The results produced by LM-SPECS are satisfying. The studies show, e.g., that a diminished initial particle number leads to larger cloud droplets and thus to a higher efficiency of coalescence. This results in a larger amount of precipitation. Furthermore, studies on mixed phase clouds show the influence of varying ice nuclei, such as bacteria, kaolinite and soot, on cloud properties. Here, a more effective freezing leads to an increased number of ice particles with smaller radii. The results point to the importance of a detailed knowledge of the underlying microphysical processes in order to understand the formation of clouds and precipitation more accurately. Though to date the model was applied to artificial cases only, the use of the mesoscale weather model allows for more complex realistic cases which are subject to further studies.     

Software package of atmospheric radionuclide distribution models and its use for assessing the radiation conditions after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident

Described is the process of trial, adjustment, and development of the joint complex of models consisting of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting) regional hydrodynamic model (the United States) and radionuclide transport model from the NOSTRADAMUS package. Using these models, the computation is carried out of the fallout and radiation dose rate on the territory of Japan after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. To adjust the hydrodynamic model, its results were preliminarily compared with the data of observations at the mast and the assessment of the model complex was based on the data of atmospheric tracer concentration measurements during the in situ experiments carried out in 1983?C1985 near Karlsruhe (Germany). Described is the version of hydrodynamic prognostic model and radionuclide transport model prepared for the present paper. Given are the results of the statistical analysis of different numerical experiments of the model complex and the results of the simulation of radiation conditions on the territory of Japan after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. It is demonstrated that the errors in the vertical distribution of the model wind are extremely sensitive to the type of parameterization of surface and boundary layers in the model. The comparison of computed and measured values demonstrated their satisfactory coincidence.