Climate forced atmospheric CO2 variability in the early Holocene: A stomatal frequency reconstruction

The dynamic climate in the Northern Hemisphere during the early Holocene could be expected to have impacted on the global carbon cycle. Ice core studies however, show little variability in atmospheric CO₂. Resolving any possible centennial to decadal CO₂ changes is limited by gas diffusion through the firn layer during bubble enclosure. Here we apply the inverse relationship between stomatal index (measured on sub-fossil leaves) and atmospheric CO₂ to complement ice core records between 11,230 and 10,330 cal. yr BP. High-resolution sampling and radiocarbon dating of lake sediments from the Faroe Islands reconstruct a distinct CO₂ decrease centred on ca. 11,050 cal. yr BP, a consistent and steady decline between ca. 10,900 and 10,600 cal. yr BP and an increased instability after ca. 10,550 cal. yr BP. The earliest decline lasting ca. 150 yr is probably associated with the Preboreal Oscillation, an abrupt climatic cooling affecting much of the Northern Hemisphere a few hundred years after the end of the Younger Dryas. In the absence of known global climatic instability, the decline to ca. 10,600 cal. yr BP is possibly due to expanding vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The increasing instability in CO₂ after 10,600 cal. yr BP occurs during a period of increasing cooling of surface waters in the North Atlantic and some increased variability in proxy climate indicators in the region.The reconstructed CO₂ changes also show a distinct similarity to indicators of changing solar activity. This may suggest that at least the Northern Hemisphere was particularly sensitive to changes in solar activity during this time and that atmospheric CO₂ concentrations fluctuated via rapid responses in climate.     

The natural latitudinal distribution of atmospheric CO2

Although poorly understood, the north–south distribution of the natural component of atmospheric CO₂ offers information essential to improving our understanding of the exchange of CO₂ between the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. The natural or unperturbed component is equivalent to that part of the atmospheric CO₂ distribution which is controlled by non-anthropogenic CO₂ fluxes from the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. Models should be able to reproduce the true north–south gradient in CO₂ due to the natural component before they can reliably estimate present-day CO₂ sources and sinks and predict future atmospheric CO₂. We have estimated the natural latitudinal distribution of atmospheric CO₂, relative to the South Pole, using measurements of atmospheric CO₂ during 1959–1991 and corresponding estimates of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Key features of the natural latitudinal distribution include: (1) CO₂ concentrations in the northern hemisphere that are lower than those in the southern hemisphere; (2) CO₂ concentration differences that are higher in the tropics (associated with outgassing of the oceans) than those currently measured; and (3) CO₂ concentrations over the southern ocean that are relatively uniform. This natural latitudinal distribution and its sensitivity to increasing fossil fuel emissions both indicate that near-surface concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ in the northern hemisphere are naturally lower than those in the southern hemisphere. Models that find the contrary will also mismatch present-day CO₂ in the northern hemisphere and incorrectly ascribe that region as a large sink of anthropogenic CO₂.     

Calculation and visualisation of future glacier extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modelling

The observed rapid glacier wastage in the European Alps during the past 20 years already has strong impacts on the natural environment (rock fall, lake formation) as well as on human activities (tourism, hydro-power production, etc.) and poses several new challenges also for glacier monitoring. With a further increase of global mean temperature in the future, it is likely that Alpine glaciers and the high-mountain environment as an entire system will further develop into a state of imbalance. Hence, the assessment of future glacier geometries is a valuable prerequisite for various impact studies. In order to calculate and visualize in a consistent manner future glacier extent for a large number of individual glaciers (> 100) according to a given climate change scenario, we have developed an automated and simple but robust approach that is based on an empirical relationship between glacier size and the steady-state accumulation area ratio (AAR₀) in the Alps. The model requires digital glacier outlines and a digital elevation model (DEM) only and calculates new glacier geometries from a given shift of the steady-state equilibrium line altitude (ELA₀) by means of hypsographic modelling. We have calculated changes in number, area and volume for 3062 individual glacier units in Switzerland and applied six step changes in ELA₀ (from + 100 to + 600 m) combined with four different values of the AAR₀ (0.5, 0.6, 0.67, 0.75). For an AAR₀ of 0.6 and an ELA₀ rise of 200 m (400 m) we calculate a total area loss of − 54% (− 80%) and a corresponding volume loss of − 50% (− 78%) compared to the 1973 glacier extent. In combination with a geocoded satellite image, the future glacier outlines are also used for automated rendering of perspective visualisations. This is a very attractive tool for communicating research results to the general public. Our study is illustrated for a test site in the Upper Engadine (Switzerland), where landscape changes above timberline play an important role for the local economy. The model is seen as a first-step approach, where several parts can be (and should be) further developed.     

The sensitivity of ECHAM4/ML to a double CO2 scenario for the Late Miocene and the comparison to terrestrial proxy data

For the Tortonian, Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Geiger, G., Mosbrugger, V., 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 238, 399–423] perform a model simulation which considers a generally lower palaeorography, a weaker ocean heat transport and an atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 353 ppm. The Tortonian simulation of Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Geiger, G., Mosbrugger, V., 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 238, 399–423] demonstrates some realistic trends: the high latitudes are warmer than today and the meridional temperature gradient is reduced. However, the Tortonian run also indicates some insufficiencies such as too cool mid-latitudes which can be due to an underestimated pCO₂ in the atmosphere. As a sensitivity study, we perform a further model experiment for which we additionally increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide (700 ppm). According to this CO₂ sensitivity experiment, we find a global warming and a globally more intense water cycle as compared to the previous Tortonian run. Particularly the high latitudes are warmer in the Tortonian CO₂ sensitivity run which leads to a lower amount of Arctic sea ice and a reduced equator-to-pole temperature difference. Our Tortonian CO₂ sensitivity study basically agrees with results from recent climate model experiments which consider an increase of CO₂ during the next century (e.g. [Cubasch, U., Meehl, G.A., Boer, G.J., Stouffer, R.J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C.A., Raper, S., Yap, K.S., 2001. Projections of Future Climate Change. In: Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, C.A. Johnson (eds.), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 525–582]) suggesting that the climatic response on a higher atmospheric CO₂ concentration is almost independent from the different settings of boundary conditions (Tortonian versus today). To validate the Tortonian model simulations, we perform a quantitative comparison with terrestrial proxy data. This comparison demonstrates that the Tortonian CO₂ sensitivity experiment tends to be more realistic than the previous Tortonian simulation by Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Geiger, G., Mosbrugger, V., 2006. Reconstructing the Late Miocene climate and oceanic heat flux using the AGCM ECHAM4 coupled to a mixed-layer ocean model with adjusted flux correction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 238, 399–423]. However, a high carbon dioxide concentration of 700 ppm is questionable for the Late Miocene, and it cannot explain shortcomings of our Tortonian run with ‘normal’ CO₂. In order to fully understand the Late Miocene climate, further model experiments should also consider the palaeovegetation.     

Simulated responses of Pinus halepensis forest productivity to climatic change and CO2 increase using a statistical model

Tree ring chronologies provide long-term records of growth in natural environmental conditions and may be used to evaluate impacts of climatic change and CO₂ increase on forest productivity. This study focuses on 21 Pinus halepensis forest stands in calcareous Provence (in the south-east of France). A chronology of net primary productivity (NPP) both for the 20th century and for each stand was estimated using tree ring data (width and density). The response of each stand to climate in terms of NPP was statistically modelled using response functions. Anomalies between estimated NPP and NPP reconstructed by response functions were calculated to evaluate the fertilising effect of CO₂ increase on tree growth. The changes in anomalies during the 20th century were attributed to the effect of CO₂ increase. A multiplying factor (β) linking CO₂ concentration and stand productivity was then calculated, on the basis of the trend observed during the 20th century. In this study, the value of the β factor obtained under natural conditions (β=0.50) is consistent with those from controlled CO₂ enrichment experiments. Both response functions and the β factor were used to predict NPP changes for a 2×CO₂ scenario. The 2×CO₂ climate was obtained using predictions from Météo France's ARPEGE atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaled to Marseilles meteorological station. NPP increased significantly for nine stands solely when the climatic effect was taken into account. The main factors responsible for this enhancement were increased winter and early spring temperatures. When the fertilising effect of the CO₂ increase was added, NPP was significantly enhanced for 14 stands (i.e. NPP enhancement ranged from 8% to 55%). Although the effects of global change were slightly detectable during the 20th century, their acceleration is likely to lead to great changes in the future productivity of P. halepensis forests.     

An improvement to the volcano-scan algorithm for atmospheric correction of CRISM and OMEGA spectral data

The observations of Mars by the CRISM and OMEGA hyperspectral imaging spectrometers require correction for photometric, atmospheric and thermal effects prior to the interpretation of possible mineralogical features in the spectra. Here, we report on a simple, yet non-trivial, adaptation to the commonly-used volcano-scan correction technique for atmospheric CO₂, which allows for the improved detection of minerals with intrinsic absorption bands at wavelengths between 1.9 and 2.1 μm. This volcano-scan technique removes the absorption bands of CO₂ by ensuring that the Lambert albedo is the same at two wavelengths: 1.890 and 2.011 μm, with the first wavelength outside the CO₂ gas bands and the second wavelength deep inside the CO₂ gas bands. Our adaptation to the volcano-scan technique moves the first wavelength from 1.890 μm to be instead within the gas bands at 1.980 μm, and for CRISM data, our adaptation shifts the second wavelength slightly, to 2.007 μm. We also report on our efforts to account for a slight ∼0.001 μm shift in wavelengths due to thermal effects in the CRISM instrument.     

Phytochemical changes in leaves of subtropical grasses and fynbos shrubs at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations

The effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on plant polyphenolic, tannin, nitrogen, phosphorus and total nonstructural carbohydrate concentrations were investigated in leaves of subtropical grass and fynbos shrub species. The hypothesis tested was that carbon-based secondary compounds would increase when carbon gain is in excess of growth requirements. This premise was tested in two ecosystems involving plants with different photosynthetic mechanisms and growth strategies. The first ecosystem comprised grasses from a C₄-dominated, subtropical grassland, where three plots were subjected to three different free air CO₂ enrichment treatments, i.e., elevated (600 to 800 μmol mol⁻¹), intermediate (400 μmol mol⁻¹) and ambient atmospheric CO₂. One of the seven grass species, Alloteropsis semialata, had a C₃ photosynthetic pathway while the other grasses were all C₄. The second ecosystem was simulated in a microcosm experiment where three fynbos species were grown in open-top chambers at ambient and 700 μmol mol⁻¹ atmospheric CO₂ in low nutrient acid sands typical of south western coastal and mountain fynbos ecosystems. Results showed that polyphenolics and tannins did not increase in the grass species under elevated CO₂ and only in Leucadendron laureolum among the fynbos species. Similarly, foliar nitrogen content of grasses was largely unaffected by elevated CO₂, and among the fynbos species, only L. laureolum and Leucadendron xanthoconus showed changes in foliar nitrogen content under elevated CO₂, but these were of different magnitude. The overall decrease in nitrogen and phosphorus and consequent increase in C:N and C:P ratio in both ecosystems, along with the increase in polyphenolics and tannins in L. laureolum in the fynbos ecosystem, may negatively affect forage quality and decomposition rates. It is concluded that fast growing grasses do not experience sink limitation and invest extra carbon into growth rather than polyphenolics and tannins and show small species-specific chemical changes at elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Responses of fynbos species are varied and were species-specific.     

New atmospheric pCO2 estimates from palesols during the late Paleocene/early Eocene global warming interval

The late Paleocene to early Eocene was one of the warmest intervals in Earth's history. Superimposed on this long-term warming was an abrupt short-term extreme warm event at or near the Paleocene/Eocene boundary and centered in the higher latitudes. This short-term climate warming was associated with a major benthic foraminiferal extinction and a dramatic 3–4% drop in the ocean's carbon isotopic composition. It has been suggested that the late paleocene/early Eocene global warming was caused by an enhanced greenhouse effect associated with higher levels of atmospheric CO₂ relative to present levels. We present carbon isotopic data from the co-existing paleosols organic matter and carbonates from a terrestrial sequence in the Paris Basin, France that contradict the notion that an increase in atmospheric CO₂ level was the cause of extreme warming for this time interval. Atmospheric pCO₂ estimates for the Late Paleocene/early Eocene estimated from the terrestrial carbon isotopic record spanning the Paleocene/Eocene transition, are indistinguishable from each other and were generally between 300 and 700 ppm.     

A peat core based estimate of Late-glacial and Holocene methane emissions from northern peatlands

We estimate the intensity of Late-glacial and Holocene methane emissions from peatlands based on their paleo net primary production (PNPP). The PNPP is derived from the carbon accumulation rates of the studied bog profile (Etang de la Gruère, Switzerland), which are corrected for the degree of peat degradation. The obtained PNPP curve is taken as a proxy for methane emissions. It shows relatively high values (90 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) early in the Bolling/Allerod and drops to low values (40 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) during the Younger Dryas cold period. With the onset of the Holocene the PNPP increases strongly up to 150 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1 around ca. 10,000 Cal. yr bp. This is followed by a decline to minimum values (30 to 40 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) between 6500 and 4000 Cal. yr bp. Thereafter, the PNPP starts to increase again to reach its highest value (175 g C m^− 2 yr^− 1) around 1000 Cal. yr bp.The PNPP curve correlates well with the evolution of the atmospheric methane concentrations as derived from Greenland ice-cores. For example, minima in atmospheric methane reported during the Younger Dryas and around 5200 Cal. yr bp are coinciding with the lowest values of PNPP and the negative atmospheric methane peak at 8200 Cal. yr bp corresponds to a marked decrease in PNPP.Our PNPP curve suggests that the methane emissions from northern peatlands evolved similar to those of low latitude wetlands and together they largely determined the evolution of atmospheric methane throughout the Late-glacial and the Holocene. The abruptness of the rise of atmospheric methane at the end of the Younger Dryas probably points to an additional source (e.g. marine gas hydrates), but very early in the Holocene the peatlands have likely become the dominant source of atmospheric methane.     

Recent organic matter accumulation in relation to some climatic factors in ombrotrophic peat bogs near heavy metal emission sources in Finland

Accumulation of organic matter (OM) was studied in four ombrotrophic peat bogs in Finland: Harjavalta (vicinity of a Cu–Ni smelter), Outokumpu (near a closed Cu–Ni mine), Alkkia (Ni-treated site) and Hietajärvi (a pristine site). At each sampling site, two peat cores (15 × 15 × 100 cm) were taken. Age-dating of peat was determined using ²¹⁰Pb method (CRS model). The local annual temperature sum and precipitation for the past 125 years were modeled. The objective was to compare recent net accumulation rates of heavy metal polluted ombrotrophic peat bogs with those of a pristine bog, and to study the relationship between weather and net accumulation rates. Based on ²¹⁰Pb age-dating, the upper 16-cm peat layer at Harjavalta, 35 cm at Outokumpu and 25 cm at Hietajärvi represents 125 years of peat formation, yielding the following average peat accumulation rates: Harjavalta 1.3 mm year^− 1, Outokumpu 2.8 mm year^− 1 and Hietajärvi 2.0 mm year^− 1. At the Alkkia site, the Ni treatment in 1962 had completely stopped the peat accumulation. Net accumulation rates were related to precipitation at Outokumpu, Harjavalta and Hietajärvi sites. In addition, emissions released from the nearby located Cu–Ni smelter could have affected negatively net OM accumulation rate at Harjavalta site.     

Stable carbon isotope ratios in tree rings of co-occurring species from semi-arid tropics in Africa: Patterns and climatic signals

Although several proxies have been proposed to trace the course of environmental and climatological fluctuations, precise paleoclimate records from the tropics, notably from Africa are still sorely lacking today. Stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) in tree rings are an attractive record of climate. In this study, the patterns and climatic signals of δ¹³C ratios were determined on tree rings of deciduous (Acacia senegal, Acacia tortilis, Acacia seyal) and an evergreen (Balanites aegyptiaca) species, from a semi-arid Acacia Woodland in Ethiopia. δ¹³C inter-annual patterns are synchronous among the co-occurring species. A declining trend with time was observed in δ¹³C, notably for B. aegyptiaca, which could be due to anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and decrease in atmospheric δ¹³C. Tree ring δ¹³C values of all the species revealed significant negative correlation with precipitation amount but not with temperature and relative humidity. The δ¹³C series of the deciduous species shows a higher correlation (r = − 0.70 to − 0.78) with precipitation than the evergreen species (r = − 0.55). A master δ¹³C series, composed of the average of the three Acacia species, displayed stronger significant correlation (r = − 0.82) than any of the individual species δ¹³C series. The weak relationship between temperature and δ¹³C in this study indicates that photosynthetic rate is not a significant factor. Moisture stress, however, may have a direct impact on the stomatal conductance and explain the strong negative relationship between δ¹³C and precipitation. The results demonstrate the potential of δ¹³C in tree rings to reflect physiological responses to environmental changes as a vehicle for paleoclimatic reconstruction, which is important to understand tree response to past and future climate change.     

Oxidation of CO on surface hematite in high CO2 atmospheres

We propose a mechanism for the oxidation of gaseous CO into CO₂ occurring on the surface mineral hematite (Fe₂O₃(s)) in hot, CO₂-rich planetary atmospheres, such as Venus. This mechanism is likely to constitute an important source of tropospheric CO₂ on Venus and could at least partly address the CO₂ stability problem in Venus’ stratosphere, since our results suggest that atmospheric CO₂ is produced from CO oxidation via surface hematite at a rate of 0.4 petagrammes (Pg) CO₂ per (Earth) year on Venus which is about 45% of the mass loss of CO₂ via photolysis in the Venusian stratosphere. We also investigated CO oxidation via the hematite mechanism for a range of planetary scenarios and found that modern Earth and Mars are probably too cold for the mechanism to be important because the rate-limiting step, involving CO(g) reacting onto the hematite surface, proceeds much slower at lower temperatures. The mechanism may feature on extrasolar planets such as Gliese 581c or CoRoT-7b assuming they can maintain solid surface hematite which, e.g. starts to melt above about 1200 K. The mechanism may also be important for hot Hadean-type environments and for the emerging class of hot Super-Earths with planetary surface temperatures between about 600 and 900 K.     

Climate model sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the middle Miocene

We present results of the first middle Miocene climate modelling study using the latest NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM v.3.1) and Community Land Model (CLM v.3.0) coupled to a slab ocean. We examine the sensitivity of the middle Miocene climate to varying concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (180, 355 and 700 ppm). Model simulations are forced with realistic Miocene boundary conditions for continental geometry, topography and vegetation. Global annual mean surface temperature increases by 2.2 °C with each successive doubling of CO₂ which is consistent with climate sensitivity of previous paleoclimate studies and estimates for future climate. In addition to growing evidence that tropical sea surface temperatures were higher than suggested by proxy-data, our understanding of middle to high latitude warming mechanisms is still incomplete. We compare our results to the late Miocene study of Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Bruch, A., Uhl, D., Utescher, T., Mosbrugger, V., 2007. The sensitivity of ECHAM4/ML to a double CO₂ scenario for the Late Miocene and the comparison to terrestrial proxy data. Global and Planetary Change, 57, 189–212] to explore the dependence of paleoclimate model sensitivities on different software systems and boundary conditions. Our comparison shows climate sensitivity to be overall quite robust — this is as significant, as it is often unclear to what extent simulation behaviour and outputs are dependent on a particular model implementation and initial/boundary conditions. Some distinct differences in model outputs, such as our reduced latitudinal surface temperature gradient and stronger Asian monsoon system, compared to the late Miocene study of Steppuhn et al. [Steppuhn, A., Micheels, A., Bruch, A., Uhl, D., Utescher, T., Mosbrugger, V., 2007. The sensitivity of ECHAM4/ML to a double CO₂ scenario for the Late Miocene and the comparison to terrestrial proxy data. Global and Planetary Change, 57, 189–212] are shown to be closely linked to the choice of topography, vegetation and ocean heat flux.     

Reconstructing a lost Eocene paradise: Part I. Simulating the change in global floral distribution at the initial Eocene thermal maximum

This study utilizes the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with dynamic global vegetation to recreate the early Paleogene global distribution of vegetation and to examine the response of the vegetation distribution to changes in climate at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary (∼ 55 Ma). We run two simulations with Eocene geography driven by climatologies generated in two atmosphere global modeling experiments: one with atmospheric pCO₂ at 560 ppm, and another at 1120 ppm. In both scenarios, the model produces the best match with fossil flora in the low latitudes. A comparison of model output from the two scenarios suggests that the greatest impact of climate on vegetation will occur in the high latitudes, in the Arctic Circle and in Antarctica. In these regions, greater accumulated summertime warmth in the 1120 ppm simulation allows temperate plant functional types to expand further poleward. Additionally, the high pCO₂ scenario produces a greater abundance of trees over grass at these high latitudes. In the middle and low latitudes, the general distribution of plant functional types is similar in both pCO₂ scenarios. Likely, a greater increment of greenhouse gases is necessary to produce the type of change evident in the mid-latitude paleobotanical record. Overall, differences between model output and fossil flora are greatest at high latitudes.     

A multitracer study of peat profiles from Tunguska, Siberia

Two peat columns from Tunguska (Siberia) were analysed for pollen, spores, charcoal, trace elements and γ-emitters in order to identify the fingerprints of the impact of a still unidentified cosmic body (TCB), which occurred in the summer of 1908, and the level of environmental pollution in a background area of central Siberia. Peat layers were subject to non-destructive γ-ray spectrometry to derive radiochronology by the excess ²¹⁰Pb method. The age-to-depth relationship was crosschecked by using both 1963 horizon of ¹³⁷Cs associated to maximum global fallout deposition and palynological data profiles. Vertical distributions of trace elements in the peat columns were obtained by PIXE multielemental analysis allowing determination of the levels of environmental contamination in a background region of the Siberian taiga.The association of heavy metals such as Ni, Co and Cu in the profiles suggests the connection of the area with mining and metal smelting activity in the north of the region through atmospheric circulation. As concerns global scale contamination, the inventory of the artificial radionuclide ¹³⁷Cs (4.6 kBq m^− 2) shows a value typical of remote slightly contaminated areas resulting from global scale redistribution of radioactive fallout from Cold War nuclear weapon testing. The atmospheric inventory of the natural radionuclide ²¹⁰Pb, for which a mean annual flux of 200 Bq m^− 2 yr^− 1 has been calculated, is typical of continental regions.The influence of Tunguska Cosmic Body in the peat is recognizable by a large discontinuity in the palynological profile of the peat monolith at a depth coinciding with the 1908 layer as determined by the ²¹⁰Pb technique, showing a large peak of total pollen counting attributed to the impact of the shockwave on the area in which huge tree stands were destroyed. Following the event, tree pollen concentration decreases abruptly showing the temporary inception of a mire environment with an increase of Sphagnum spore concentrations. Results of elemental analysis so far available do not show anomalies in the concentration profiles at depths coinciding with the Tunguska event layer indicating the need for pre-concentration technique enabling the detection of element associations typical of extraterrestrial materials.     

Climate and carbon cycle changes under the overshoot scenario

The “overshoot scenario” is an emissions scenario in which CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere temporarily exceeds some pre-defined, “dangerous” threshold (before being reduced to non-dangerous levels). Support for this idea comes from its potential to achieve a balance between the burdens of current and future generations in dealing with global warming. Before it can be considered a viable policy, the overshoot scenario needs to be examined in terms of its impacts on the global climate and the environment. In, particular, it must be determined if climate change cause by the overshoot scenario is reversible or not, since crossing that “dangerous” CO₂ threshold could result in climate change from which we might not be able to recover. In this study, we quantify the change in several climatic and environmental variables under the overshoot scenario using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Compared to earlier studies on the overshoot scenario, we have an explicit carbon cycle model that allows us to represent carbon-climate feedbacks and force the climate model more realistically with CO₂ emissions rates rather than with prescribed atmospheric pCO₂. Our standard CO₂ emissions rate is calculated on the basis of historical atmospheric pCO₂ data and the WRE S650 non-overshoot stabilization profile. It starts from the preindustrial year 1760, peaks in the year 2056, and ends in the year 2300. A variety of overshoot scenarios were constructed by increasing the amplitude of the control emissions peak but decreasing the peak duration so that the cumulative emissions remain essentially constant. Sensitivity simulations of various overshoot scenarios in our model show that many aspects of the global climate are largely reversible by year 2300. The significance of the reversibility, which takes roughly 200 years in our experiments, depends on the time horizon with which it is viewed or the number of future generations for whom equity is sought. At times when the overshoot scenario has emissions rates higher then the control scenario, the transient changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and surface ocean pH can be significant, even for moderate overshoot scenarios that remain within IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The large transient changes and the centennial timescale of climate reversibility suggest that the overshoot might not be the best mitigation approach, even if it technically follows the optimal economic path.     

Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies, as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961–2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO₂ for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' × 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980–1999, 2030–2049 and 2080–2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets, we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations, especially during winter and spring seasons, and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors.     

Oxygen compounds in Titan's stratosphere as observed by Cassini CIRS

We have investigated the abundances of Titan's stratospheric oxygen compounds using 0.5 cm⁻¹ resolution spectra from the Composite Infrared Spectrometer on the Cassini orbiter. The CO abundance was derived for several observations of far-infrared nadir spectra, taken at a range of latitudes (75° S-35° N) and emission angles (0°-60°), using rotational lines that have not been analysed before the arrival of Cassini at Saturn. The derived volume mixing ratios for the different observations are mutually consistent regardless of latitude. The weighted mean CO volume mixing ratio is 47±8 ppm if CO is assumed to be uniform with latitude. H₂O could not be detected and an upper limit of 0.9 ppb was determined. CO₂ abundances derived from mid-infrared nadir spectra show no significant latitudinal variations, with typical values of 16±2 ppb. Mid-infrared limb spectra at 55° S were used to constrain the vertical profile of CO₂ for the first time. A vertical CO₂ profile that is constant above the condensation level at a volume mixing ratio of 15 ppb reproduces the limb spectra very well below 200 km. This is consistent with the long chemical lifetime of CO₂ in Titan's stratosphere. Above 200 km the CO₂ volume mixing ratio is not well constrained and an increase with altitude cannot be ruled out there.     

Hemispheric distributions of HCl above and below the Venus’ clouds by ground-based 1.7 μm spectroscopy

The abundance of hydrogen chloride (HCl) in the Venus atmosphere was measured by ground-based IR spectroscopy. The dayside measurements were performed in May 2007 with a resolution of 40,000, and the nightside measurements in October 1999 with a resolution of 1000. The hemispheric distributions of the HCl mixing ratio measured above the Venus’ clouds show no significant structure with a disc-averaged value of 0.74±0.06 ppm which is in the similar range as the previous report of 0.6±0.2 ppm. The representative height for the dayside measurements is estimated to be 60-66 km. Recent results by Venus Express/SPICAV/SOIR show much smaller values of 0.1-0.2 ppm at 64-94 km; however the direct comparison is difficult due to the different spatial conditions. The hemispheric distributions of the ³⁵Cl/³⁷Cl isotope ratio are also found to show no significant structure with a disc-averaged value of 3.1±0.4 which coincides with the terrestrial value of 3.1. The HCl mixing ratios below the clouds are also found to show no significant structure with a disc-averaged value of 0.40±0.05 ppm, which is similar to the previous reports of 0.4-0.5 ppm. The larger HCl mixing ratio above the clouds than below suggests the production of HCl in the cloud region or above. Also, a uniform hemispherical distribution of H₂O is found below the clouds with a disc-averaged mixing ratio of 25±5 ppm; this is in the same range as the previous measurements. Those uniform distributions of HCl and H₂O support the fact that their chemical lifetimes are much longer than that of mixing as has been discussed so far.     

The effect of ground ice on the Martian seasonal CO2 cycle

The mostly carbon dioxide (CO₂) atmosphere of Mars condenses and sublimes in the polar regions, giving rise to the familiar waxing and waning of its polar caps. The signature of this seasonal CO₂ cycle has been detected in surface pressure measurements from the Viking and Pathfinder landers. The amount of CO₂ that condenses during fall and winter is controlled by the net polar energy loss, which is dominated by emitted infrared radiation from the cap itself. However, models of the CO₂ cycle match the surface pressure data only if the emitted radiation is artificially suppressed suggesting that they are missing a heat source. Here we show that the missing heat source is the conducted energy coming from soil that contains water ice very close to the surface. The presence of ice significantly increases the thermal conductivity of the ground such that more of the solar energy absorbed at the surface during summer is conducted downward into the ground where it is stored and released back to the surface during fall and winter thereby retarding the CO₂ condensation rate. The reduction in the condensation rate is very sensitive to the depth of the soil/ice interface, which our models suggest is about 8 cm in the Northern Hemisphere and 11 cm in the Southern Hemisphere. This is consistent with the detection of significant amounts of polar ground ice by the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer and provides an independent means for assessing how close to the surface the ice must be. Our results also provide an accurate determination of the global annual mean size of the atmosphere and cap CO₂ reservoirs, which are, respectively, 6.1 and 0.9 hPa. They also indicate that general circulation models will need to account for the effect of ground ice in their simulations of the seasonal CO₂ cycle.