Conceptualizing food systems for global environmental change research

This paper outlines a framework for studying the multiple interactions of broadly defined food systems with global environmental change and evaluating the major societal outcomes affected by these interactions: food security, ecosystem services and social welfare. In building the framework the paper explores and synthesizes disparate literature on food systems food security and global environmental change, bridging social science and natural science perspectives. This collected evidence justifies a representation of food systems, which can be used to identify key processes and determinants of food security in a given place or time, particularly the impacts of environmental change. It also enables analysis of the feedbacks from food system outcomes to drivers of environmental and social change, as well as tradeoffs among the food system outcomes themselves. In food systems these tradeoffs are often between different scales or levels of decision-making or management, so solutions to manage them must be context-specific. With sufficient empirical evidence, the framework could be used to build a database of typologies of food system interactions useful for different management or analytical purposes.     

Changing relations in global environmental change

We discuss a cross-national pilot study in Sweden and the UK examining young people's environmental concerns and their perceptions of the causes and solutions. The study demonstrates that evaluations of the causes of environmental degradation are partly contingent upon the manner in which questions are framed leading to quite different interpretations of the findings. Moreover, attitudes also differ significantly between the British and the Swedish sample: in the UK environmental degradation is seen as more serious but also more distant from the respondents’ everyday experiences when answering pre-formulated questions. The causes of environmental degradation are located in both countries in government and industry policies promoting economic growth on the one hand. On the other, respondents identify distant developments in emerging economies as problems, without connecting their local experiences to the global effects they describe. In the open-ended part of the survey, individual behaviour is seen as the most important cause of environmental degradation. But while British respondents describe individuals as selfish, lazy and consumerist, Swedish respondents emphasise also structural causes like Western lifestyles and the market society. We present possible explanations for these differences and discuss the relationships between the global and the local in relation to constructions of the Other as well as the relationship of individualism and authoritarianism that emerge from the results.     

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE 2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change Indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. The scenarios indicate that the coming decades could be a period of relatively rapid global environmental change as compared to the period before and after. The natural vegetation in industrialized regions could be threatened by climate change, but abandonment of agricultural lands could also make new lands available for reforestation and revegetation. The opposite is true for most of Asia and Africa. Here the impacts of climate change on vegetation may not be as significant as in temperate climates, but the demand for food will lead to a significant expansion of agricultural lands at the expense of remaining forests and other natural areas.     

Settlement abandonment in the context of global environmental change

This article reports findings from a study of settlement abandonment and the interactions between environmental and non-environmental factors that may give rise to it. Through a modified systematic review of scholarly literature, an inventory of 246 ancient and modern examples of settlement abandonment was generated. Common spatial and temporal parameters were identified and a typology created to summarize environmental and non-environmental drivers common across cases. Dynamic interactions of drivers that lead to a progression from vulnerability to population decline and abandonment were examined in the cases of Plymouth, Montserrat, abandoned due to volcanism in the 1990s; recent rural depopulation in northeastern Iraq and the southern marshes; outmigration from the southern Aral Sea region; and, neighbourhood abandonment and a proposal to convert abandoned lands in Detroit to commercial farming. The study finds that with growing vulnerability to environmental change across many regions, there is greater potential for increased numbers of abandonments. However, abandonment should be seen as only one possible outcome of environment and population interactions that create vulnerability and stimulate environmental migration. The study concludes with a series of observations relevant to anticipating and planning for potential population decline and settlement abandonment in the face of future global environmental change.     

Policy and global change research

The history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program calls into question its sustainability. The Program was established on the presumption that a prerequisite for rational, comprehensive, and cost-effective policy responses is the reduction of scientific uncertainty through comprehensive predictive models. This presumption remains a significant barrier to the renewal of public support for the Program through near-term progress consistent with its mandate to produce information readily usable by policymakers. This article critiques the use of comprehensive predictive models for policy purposes; proposes one modest alternative to comprehensive predictive models as a means of integrating scientific and non-scientific considerations into recommendations readily usable by policymakers; and places the issue in the broader context of a paradigm shift in U.S. science and technology policy. The purpose is to expedite progress, consistent with the policy mandate, that would help sustain public support for the Program.This is a revision of a paper presented at the Fourteenth Annual Research Conference of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, Washington, DC, October 30, 1993, and included as testimony submitted for the record of Hearings on the Climate Change Action Plan and Assessment, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives (November 16, 1993), 111–140.     

Precaution and proportionality in the management of global environmental change

The precautionary principle is a mandate to tread cautiously when managing novel threats to the environment or human health. A major obstacle when applying the principle at the international level is disagreement about how precautionary efforts should be constrained to ensure that policy costs are proportional to the attained level of protection. Proportionality is an unresolved question when preliminary evidence precludes decision-makers from assigning probabilities over future events. The paper suggests practical analytical tools for communicating ex ante trade-offs when probabilities are unavailable. The tools could be used to facilitate discussion and compromise when implementing precautionary decisions in international settings where cooperation is important. The approach is demonstrated in an application to climate policy that uses the integrated assessment model DICE (Nordhaus, 2008). The paper also situates the task of precautionary decision-making within the broader context of implementing a precautionary response at the international level.     

Sub-Saharan African urbanisation and global environmental change

Scientific evidence for global environmental change in Africa presents a prima facia case for increased human migration and displacement. Closer scrutiny of the evidence on demographic change, however, suggests that migration and displacement are less important variables in explaining the human dimensions of global environmental change on the continent than is commonly projected. Natural population growth in cities is a more important dynamic in the evolving system of human settlement in Africa and this significant shift in where people live, both now and in the future is overlooked by the emphasis on the potential impact of environmentally induced migration. Even without any movement from the countryside, cities represent the fastest growing sector of the sub-Saharan African population. The existing vulnerability of African cities, with their fast growing populations and weak management means any environmental change is likely to have significant consequences for cities. Taking the sub-Saharan African demographic evidence seriously means that the scholarly and policy emphasis currently directed to GEC migration and displacement might be more effectively redirected to questions of the interface between global environmental change and urban areas.     

Toward integrated assessment of environmental change: air pollution health effects in the USA

We demonstrate a method for integrating environmental effects into a computable general equilibrium model. This is a critical step forward toward the development of improved integrated assessment models of environmental change. We apply the method to examine the economic consequences of air pollution on human health for the US for the period from 1970 to 2000. The pollutants include tropospheric ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter. We apply this method to the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the economy that has been widely used to study climate change policy. The method makes use of traditional valuation studies, incorporating this information so that estimates of welfare change are consistent with welfare valuation of the consumption of market goods and services. We estimate the benefits of air pollution regulations in USA rose steadily from 1975 to 2000 from $50 billion to $400 billion (from 2.1% to 7.6% of market consumption). Our estimated benefits of regulation are somewhat lower than the original estimates made by the US Environmental Protection Agency, and we trace that result to our development of a stock model of pollutant exposure that predicts that the benefits from reduced chronic air pollution exposure will only be gradually realized. We also estimate the economic burden of uncontrolled levels of air pollution over that period. The uncertainties in these estimates are large which we show through simulations using 95% confidence limits on the epidemiological dose-response relationships