Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events: review and prospect

Persistent extreme weather is of high disaster causing capability, represents a great threat to the safety of both people and property and results in substantial economic losses. However, the underlying mechanism of such high impact weather remains unclear, and related forecasting methods are quite under studied currently. Based on the comprehensive reviews of the relevant studies about persistent extreme weather, the prediction of such events within the period during 1～2 weeks in advance is believed to be a significant scientific issue. For this scientific problem, the studies of atmospheric low frequency process, the interaction between multi scale systems, the forcing of complicated underlying surface and sea land atmosphere interactions are necessary to be performed. These multi perspective studies will favor the final establishment of the corresponding forecasting theory and method based on the combination of dynamical prediction and statistical predication. It is hoped that the deficiencies in systematic studies about persistent extreme weather may be made up through pertinent studies, which will prolong the time length of forecasting and increase the prediction precision of such high impact events.     

Solar and geomagnetic activity effects on heart rate variability

Investigation into possible space weather hazards on cardiovascular system has been performed. A group of 14 healthy volunteers was examined in the spring of 2009 and 2 healthy persons performed electrocardiograph records for a period of 1 year everyday in the morning and in the evening. Results revealed that heart rate variability (HRV) parameters of the group varied strongly from the day before till 3 days after the registered weak storms during the time of investigation. Blood pressure and subjective psychophysiological complaints increased statistically significantly from 0 day till +2nd day. Heart rate (HR) of the group showed a trend for decrease. It was established that morning measurements were more sensitive to space weather variations in comparison with evening measurements. Both persons with prolonged registrations for a period of year did not reveal graded response to geomagnetic storms with different intensities. Both of them decreased HR during moderate storms, but they increased HR during major storms and on the days before and after these storms. HRV parameters varied significantly on these days.     

Centralized power and divided space: `Fractured regions' in the Israeli `ethnocracy'

This paper uses a critical political-geographical perspective to account for the high centrality of power found in Israel. It suggests that the concentration of power have not been solely caused by national solidarity and integration or by metropolitan development, as commonly explained, but also by the territorial `fracturing' of the main social and ethnic groups in Israel/Palestine. This has prevented the emergence of effective pressure for regional devolution. Israel's character as a settler and settling state, and its central project of Judaizing contested territories, enabled the Israeli `ethnocracy' and its (mainly Ashkenazi and secular) elites to create a political geography of `fractured ethnic and social regions'. Dispersing minorities and legitimizing segregation and inequality, all in the name of the `national interest', achieved this. The Israeli political landscape is therefore organized as `fractured regions', each representing a distinct and interconnected, yet geographically dispersed, set of localities, and resembling a `chain of beads'. The logic of dispersal and segregation, in turn, has also influenced patterns of development and residential separation within Israel's main urban areas. Thus, ethnic and social fragmentation and conflict, and not a putative process of national or metropolitan integration, can explain much of Israel's highly centralized power structure.     

Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification,classification and frequencies of events

Severe weather can have serious repercussions in the transport sector as a whole by increasing the number of accidents, injuries and other damage, as well as leading to highly increased travel times. This study, a component of the EU FP7 Project EWENT, delineates a Europe-wide climatology of adverse and extreme weather events that can be expected to affect the transport network. We first define and classify the relevant severe weather events by investigating the effects of hazardous conditions on different transportation modes and the infrastructure. Consideration is given to individual phenomena such as snowfall, heavy precipitation, heat waves, cold spells, wind gusts; a combined phenomenon, the blizzard, is also considered. The frequency of severe weather events, together with the changes in their spatial extension and intensity, is analyzed based on the E-OBS dataset (1971–2000) and the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset (1989–2010). Northern Europe and the Alpine region are the areas most impacted by winter extremes, such as snowfall, cold spells and winter storms, the frequency of heavy snowfall. The frequency of hot days is highest in Southern Europe. Severe winds and blizzards are the most common over the Atlantic and along its shores. Although heavy rainfall may affect the whole continent on an annual basis, extreme precipitation events are relative sparse, affecting particularly the Alps and the Atlantic coastline. A European regionalization covering similar impacts on the transport network is performed.     

盾构隧道施工对临近桥桩影响数值及现场监测研究

随着城市内地铁盾构区间隧道临近城市道路桥桩工程的增多,急需研究盾构隧道临近桥桩施工对桥桩的变形影响问题。采用有限元数值计算方法,结合盾构隧道穿越桥桩实际工程,建立了盾构隧道施工对临近桥桩影响的数值分析模型,模拟盾构隧道施工,对盾构隧道穿越临近桥桩的桩体沉降、桩体侧移、地表沉降进行了数值分析研究,盾构隧道穿越时及穿越后桩体沉降、桩体侧移、地表沉降控制结果较为理想,桩体处于稳定状态。结合现场监测成果,对数值计算结果和监测结果进行对比分析,表明采用的数值分析计算模型、参数取值对盾构隧道施工对临近桥桩影响的模拟是可靠的,可以运用文中的数值计算方法预测后续盾构隧道施工引起临近桥桩沉降、桩体侧移和地表沉降结果。     

GPS derived co-seismic and post-seismic effects of recent earthquakes on peninsular Indian shield and its tectonic implications

Several major earthquakes affected the stable continental Indian peninsular shield in recent past due to the activity of fault movements. This necessitates identifying the active faults in the region for future monitoring. The far field co-seismic and post-seismic effects of recent major earthquakes occurred at Sumatra, 2004, Pakistan, 2007 and Indonesia, 2007 on HYDE and IISc IGS GPS stations were studied by small span GPS analysis. Different type of movement pattern on displacement components ensure the reactivation of existing fault planes signifying an integral relationship between GPS displacement vectors and geological structure of the region.     

Seismo-induced effects in the near-earth space: Combined ground and space investigations as a contribution to earthquake prediction

The paper aims at giving a few methodological suggestions in deterministic earthquake prediction studies based on combined ground-based and space observations of earthquake precursors. Up to now what is lacking is the demonstration of a causal relationship with explained physical processes and looking for a correlation between data gathered simultaneously and continuously by space observations and ground-based measurements. Coordinated space and ground-based observations imply available test sites on the Earth surface to correlate ground data, collected by appropriate networks of instruments, with space ones detected on board of LEO satellites. At this purpose a new result reported in the paper is an original and specific space mission project (ESPERIA) and two instruments of its payload. The ESPERIA space project has been performed for the Italian Space Agency and three ESPERIA instruments (ARINA and LAZIO particle detectors, and EGLE search-coil magnetometer) have been built and tested in space. The EGLE experiment started last April 15, 2005 on board the ISS, within the ENEIDE mission. The launch of ARINA occurred on June 15, 2006, on board the RESURS DK-1 Russian LEO satellite. As an introduction and justification to these experiments the paper clarifies some basic concepts and critical methodological aspects concerning deterministic and statistic approaches and their use in earthquake prediction. We also take the liberty of giving the scientific community a few critical hints based on our personal experience in the field and propose a joint study devoted to earthquake prediction and warning.     

四川雅安市雨城区地质灾害预警系统研究

区域地质灾害的敏感性评价与诱发因素评价是区域群发性地质灾害预警预报的基础。文中以四川雅安市雨城区为例,系统介绍了区域地质灾害预警预报的方法。在区域地质灾害敏感性评价及区域降雨监测的基础上,研究了降雨诱发区域群发性地质灾害的规律,得出了地质灾害降雨阈值。研究了降雨诱发地质灾害预警预报的方法,建立了大中比例尺的地质灾害预警预报系统,并在四川雅安雨城区开展了系统运行。文中论述的方法可以用于县(市)级的地质灾害预警预报工作。模拟运行及实际运行效果表明,本方法效果较好,能够在类似区域进行推广。     

输变电设施电磁辐射环境影响评价方法探讨

结合输变电设施周围电磁环境特点,对其电磁辐射环境影响评价方法进行探讨,提出相应的电磁辐射污染防治措施与建议,消除公众疑虑。在此基础上,总结当前电磁辐射环评工作中存在的问题,以期为后续同类问题深入研究提供思路。     

Doing community supported agriculture: Tactile space,affect and effects of membership

Community supported agriculture (CSA) is a direct-marketing food network that has the potential to decommmodify food and support farmers while providing consumers with sustainably raised, seasonal, local food. Through an ethnographic exploration of one CSA, we describe the processes, practices, affect and effects of consumer membership within the context of non-representational theory. Carolan (2007) suggests that when non-representational ways of knowing are fostered through long-term embodied involvement in “tactile space,” “deep commitments” to the environment and others are encouraged. This study augments understandings of tactile space. Findings show that members engage in the tactile spaces of CSA (e.g. attending distribution, cooking more), but with varied effects: leading one member to voice compassion for the farmer which “is something you don’t feel in a supermarket” while another admits feeling “like I’ve been conned.” In spite of mixed experiences and affects, on balance we conclude that CSA membership does affect environmental ethics.     

开采沉陷数值计算的空间效应和层面效应分析

数值计算结果的实用性主要取决于模型和参数的选取。在相同地质、开采条件下，笔者探讨了平面模型与三维模型、设置弱面与不设置弱面、弹性与弹塑性等不同状态对矿山开采沉陷计算结果的影响，通过计算模型之间的对比，分析了空间效应、层面效应等对计算结果的影响程度和原因。其结论对今后矿山开采沉陷数值计算具有参考价值。     

基于层次分析法的输变电工程地质环境适宜性评价

地质环境适宜性评价是输变电工程规划选址的重要组成部分。针对影响宿豫区输变电工程建设和安全运行的地质环境特点,选取了岩土体承载力、液化指数、发震构造、地震动峰值加速度、地面高程、地形坡度、河流水系及路网密度等8个因素作为评价指标,并利用层次分析方法确定了各因素的权重; 在此基础上,利用GIS的多因素空间拟合功能得到宿豫区输电线路工程适宜性分类图。研究结果表明: 宿豫区除骆马湖水系外基本都属于输变电工程适宜和较适宜区; 受构造断裂影响,郯庐断裂带周边地区的适宜性较差,需要避让。     

Making space for unruly water: Sustainable drainage systems and the disciplining of surface runoff

This paper explores the disciplining of non-human actors through the example of sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) managing surface water runoff. The lens of performativity is used to examine the move from pre-modern repressive forms of discipline, to mechanisms which attempt a more productive disciplinary engagement by finding space to reform water’s more unruly behaviours. After examining the problems with traditional disciplinary approaches to water of rapid transit and exile, the paper explores the implications of a move towards SuDS technology. This change is examined using a case study of Glasgow, Scotland, where there is an attempt to utilise less repressive disciplinary mechanisms and to find spaces in the city for surface water outside the hard drainage infrastructure. New approaches to the disciplining of urban water are conceptualised as being a performance of tension between water and those who would modify its behaviour.     

The effects of seasonal variability and weather on microbial fecal pollution and enteric pathogens in a subtropical estuary

The Charlotte Harbor estuary in southwest Florida was sampled monthly for one year at twelve stations, in the lower reaches of the Myakka and Peace Rivers. The objectives of the study were to address the distribution and seasonal changes in microbial indicators and human pathogen levels in Charlotte Harbor shellfish and recreational waters, and to determine those factors that may be important in the transport and survival of pathogens. Monthly water samples and quarterly sediment samples were analyzed for fecal coliform bacteria, enterococci,Clostridium perfringens, and coliphage. Quarterly samples also were analyzed for the enteric human pathogens,Cryptosporidium spp.,Giardia spp., and enteroviruses. Fecal indicator organisms were generally concentrated in areas of low salinity and high densities of septic systems; however, pollution became widespread during wet weather in, the late fall and winter of 1997–1998, coincident with a strong El Nino event. Between, December 1997 and February 1998, enteroviruses were detected at 75% of the sampling stations; none were detected in other months. Enteric protozoa were detected infrequently and were not related to seasonal influences. Fecal indicators and enteroviruses were each significantly associated with rainfall, streamflow, and temperature. Regression models suggest that temperature and rainfall can predict the occurrence of enteroviruses in 93.7% of the cases. Based on findings in this watershed, factors such as variability in precipitation, streamflow, and temperature show promise in modeling and forecasting periods of poor coastal water quality.     

Using value engineering to optimize flood forecasting and flood warning systems: Golestan and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as case studies

Flood occurrence has always been one of the most important natural phenomena, which is often associated with disaster. Consequently, flood forecasting (FF) and flood warning (FW) systems, as the most efficient non-structural measures in reducing flood loss and damage, are of prime importance. These systems are low cost and the time required for their implementation is relatively short. It is emphasized that for designing the components of these systems for various rivers, climatic conditions and geographical settings different methods are required. One of the major difficulties during implementing these systems in different projects is the fact that sometimes the main functions of these systems are ignored. Based on a systematic and practical approach and considering the components of these systems, it would be possible to extract the most essential key functions of the system and save time, effort and money by this way. For instance, in a small watershed with low concentration and small lead time, the main emphasis should be on predicting and monitoring weather conditions. In this article, different components of flood forecasting and flood warning systems have been introduced. Then analysis of the FF and FW system functions has been undertaken based on the value engineering (VE) technique. Utilizing a functional view based on function analysis system technique (FAST), the total trend of FF and FW functions has been identified. The systematic trend and holistic view of this technique have been used in optimizing FF and FW systems of the Golestan province and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as the case studies.     

The effects of oasis on aeolian deposition under different weather conditions: a case study at the southern margin of the Taklimakan desert

Heavy aeolian deposition is one of the most threatening natural hazards to oases in arid areas. How an oasis affects aeolian deposition is tightly related to the local ecological environments. To examine the effects of oasis on aeolian deposition under different weather conditions, monthly aeolian deposition from April 2008 to March 2009 and additional samples during dust storms in April and May 2008 were collected at four sites along the Qira oasis. The monthly ADRs (aeolian deposition rates) varied greatly with seasons and sites, ranging from 19.4 to 421.2 g/m²/month and averaging 198.8 g/m²/month. Aeolian deposition in the oasis was composed dominantly of sand and silt. Based on the variations of ADRs from the four sites, it can be found that the oasis exhibits two different effects on aeolian deposition under different weather conditions. During dust storms, the oasis demonstrates a significantly shielding effect due to the obstruction of the oasis-protection systems, resulting in most aeolian particles being deposited at the windward side of the oasis. While during non-dust storm periods with weak winds, the oasis exhibits an “attracting” effect on aeolian deposition, leading to a higher ADR inside the oasis. Owing to the annual ADR is dominated by the non-dust storm ADR in Qira, the oasis seems to become an important aeolian deposition area caused by the “attracting” effect of the oasis.     

How hurricane attributes determine the extent of environmental effects: Multiple hurricanes and different coastal systems

The most recent spate of hurricanes to strike the United States and Caribbean (1989 to the present) has occurred when many of the affected areas had long-term water quality and biological data collection efforts ongoing, as well as special follow-up studies. These data have allowed researchers to obtain a much clearer picture of how individual characteristics of hurricanes interact with human land use to lead to various types and degrees of environmental effects. Common deleterious water quality effects associated with hurricanes include excessive nutrient loading, algal blooms, elevated biochemical oxygen demand and subsequent hypoxia and anoxia, fish and invertebrate kills, aquatic animal displacements, large scale releases of chemical pollutants and debris from damaged human structures, exacerbated spread of exotic species and pathogens, and pollution of water with fecal microbial pathogens. These and other effects may or may not occur, or occur to varying degrees, depending upon individual hurricane characteristics including category, point of landfall, wind speed, amount of rainfall, and path after landfall. Landfall in a populous area, a post-landfall trajectory upriver toward a headwater region, passage along a floodplain containing pollution sources (such as wastewater treatment plants, concentrated animal feeding operations, and septic systems), and intensity sufficient to damage power generation will all lead to increased environmental damage. We suggest a number of recommendations for post-hurricane water sampling parameters and techniques, and provide several management-oriented recommendations for better coastal and floodplain land use aimed at lessening the water quality effects of hurricanes.     

Co-precipitation of radium in high ionic strength systems: 2. Kinetic and ionic strength effects

High concentrations of naturally occurring radium pose environmental and health concerns in natural and industrial systems. The adsorption of Ra²⁺ in saline water is limited compared to its adsorption in fresh water, but the process of co-precipitation may be effective in decreasing its concentration. However, despite its importance, Ra co-precipitation has rarely been studied in high ionic strength environments such as those in evaporitic systems.The fate of Ra in the reject brine of a desalination plant was studied via evaporation batch experiments at ionic strengths (I) ranging from 0.7 to 7.0 mol kg⁻¹. Precipitation sequences revealed that Ra co-precipitated with barite, even though the latter was a trace mineral compared to the precipitated gypsum. The concentration-based effective partition coefficient, , for the co-precipitation reaction was 1.04 ± 0.01. This value of is significantly lower than the value for relatively diluted solutions (1.8 ± 0.1). This low value of is mainly the result of a kinetic effect but is also slightly affected by the ionic strength.Both effects are quantitatively examined in the present paper. It is suggested that a kinetic effect influences the nucleation of (Ra,Ba)SO₄, reducing the value of the partition coefficient. This kinetic effect is caused by the favorable nucleation of a more soluble phase (i.e., a phase with a higher BaSO₄ fraction). An additional decrease in the partition coefficient results from the ionic strength effect. Considering the activity of Ra²⁺ and Ba²⁺ in the solution (rather than their concentration) makes it possible to determine the activity-based partition coefficient (), which accounts for the ionic strength effect. was calculated empirically from the experiments and theoretically via a kinetic model. The two derived values are consistent with one another and indicate the combined effect of ionic strength and precipitation kinetics.Finally, the common assumption that γ_Ra²⁺/γ_Ba²⁺=1 was re-examined using a numerical model to predict the experimental results. As the ionic strength increases, this assumption becomes less appropriate for predicting the change in as calculated in the experiments. Understanding the co-precipitation of Ra in such systems is crucial for risk assessments in which both Ra concentration and ionic strength are relatively high.