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1.
This paper is a follow-up to a previous paper on the subject of liquefaction potential index (LPI), a parameter that is often used to characterize the potential for surface manifestation of liquefaction at a given site subjected to a given shaking level (represented by a pair of peak ground surface acceleration amax and moment magnitude Mw). In the previous paper by Juang and his coworkers, the LPI was re-calibrated for a piezocone penetration test (CPTU) model, and a simplified model based on LPI was created for computing the conditional probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction (PG). In this paper, the model for this conditional probability PG is extended into a complete framework for assessing the probability of surface manifestation of liquefaction in a given exposure time at a given site subjected to all possible ground motions at all seismic hazard levels. This new framework is formulated and demonstrated with an example site in 10 different seismic regions in the United States.  相似文献   

2.
刘芳  李震  蒋明镜  黄雨 《岩土力学》2015,36(12):3548-3555
基于液化侧向变形实用统计模型和地震概率模型,建立了可以考虑地震随机特征和土体性质不确定性的液化侧向变形超越概率模型框架,通过实际案例初步探讨了模型的有效性,并将超越概率模型与现有统计模型的预测结果进行了对比。分析结果表明,若液化侧向变形的条件概率满足正态分布,标准差在5%到20%期望值范围内变化时,对位移超越概率影响不大;若满足对数正态分布,标准差对超越概率有一定影响。实用统计模型只能预测指定地震水平下的液化侧向变形值,而超越概率模型考虑了指定时间内所有可能地震的发生概率,可以同时预测变形值及发生概率,更加适合用于区域性的地震液化灾害评估。  相似文献   

3.
The town of Edessa is located on Northern Greece at a region that is characterized as low seismicity zone due to the fact that few moderate events of M < 6 occurred during the last century. According to the Greek Seismic Code, the expected acceleration having a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years is equal to 0.16g. However, an amplification of ground motion is likely to occur due the local geology that is consisted of Holocene fluvio-torrential deposits. The basic aim of this paper is to evaluate the site amplification due to geological conditions and to assess the liquefaction hazard. In order to achieve this, 1-D site response analyses were performed. The data that were employed for the construction of the numerical models have been collected from borings with standard penetrations tests (SPT) that were drilled for construction purposes. Afterward, the liquefaction potential of the subsoil layers was evaluated taking into consideration two seismic scenarios. The first scenario was based on the seismic parameters, earthquake magnitude and PGA, assigned by the Greek Seismic Code. On the second seismic model, we employed the values of acceleration, resulted from the 1-D analyses and the earthquake magnitude as it was defined by the Greek Seismic Code. In order to compile the liquefaction hazard maps, we initially estimated the liquefaction potential index (LPI) of the soil columns using the parameters provided by SPT, for both seismic loadings, and afterward we correlated these values with the proposed classification of the severity of liquefaction-induced deformations. In addition, having computed the value of probability based on the LPI, liquefaction manifestations probability maps were compiled for both scenarios. The result of this study was that liquefaction-induced ground disruptions are likely to occur at the center of the city, among the branches of Voda River, only when the amplified values of acceleration are taken into account to the computation of liquefaction potential.  相似文献   

4.
以穿越汶川震区的成兰铁路龙门山关键段为例, 探索提出了强震扰动背景下重大工程场区多尺度滑坡危险性评估方法。利用信息量模型反演评估了汶川地震诱发的同震滑坡空间分布特征, 以此为前提开展了区域和局地两种空间尺度的滑坡危险性预测评估。在区域廊带尺度上, 分别利用可能最大降雨量预测方法和信息量模型, 进行了日超越概率10%的最大降雨量时空分布预测及其诱发滑坡的危险性评估; 同时, 结合地震危险性区划成果, 开展了50年超越概率10%的基本地震动诱发滑坡的危险性评估。在局地场站尺度上, 利用基于崩塌运动过程模拟的Rockfall Analyst软件, 开展了柿子园大桥周边崩塌运动学特征(Runout)模拟和危险性评估。滑坡和崩塌危险性评估的结果分别为铁路规划选线和场站防护设计提供了不同尺度的地质安全依据。   相似文献   

5.
Vaunat  Jean  Leroueil  Serge 《Natural Hazards》2002,26(1):81-107
The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.  相似文献   

6.
Groundwater surveys were performed by detailed(around 300 sites) grid-analysis of water temperature, pH, redox potential, electrical conductivity, 222Rn, alkalinity and by calculating the pCO2, throughout the Ciampino and Marino towns in the Alban Hills quiescent volcano (Central Italy). Following several episodes of dangerous CO2 exhalation from soils during the last 20 years and earlier ashistorically recorded, the work aimed at assessing the Natural Gas Hazard (NGH) including the indoor-Rn hazard. The NGH was defined as the probability of an area to become a site of poisonous peri-volcanic gas exhalations from soils to the lower atmosphere (comprising buildings). CO2 was found to be a ``carrier' for the other poisonous minor and in trace components (HsS, CH4, 222Rn, etc.). This assessment was performed by extrapolating in the aquifer CO2 and 222Rn conditions, and discriminating sectors where future CO2 flux in soils as well as indoor-Rn measurements have to be noted. A preliminary indoor-Rn survey was performed at about 200 sites. The highest values were found in the highest pCO2 and high 222Rn values in groundwater. This indicates convection and enhanced permeability in certain sectors of the main aquifer, i.e., along the bordering faults and inside the gas-trap of the Ciampino Horst., where ``continuous gas-phase micro-macro seepage mechanism' is invoked to explain the high peri-volcanic gases flux.  相似文献   

7.
The need to revise the current Indonesian Seismic Hazard Map contained in Indonesian Earthquake Resistant Building Code SNI 03-1726-2002 which partially adopts the concept of UBC 1997, was driven among others by the desire to better reflect the potential larger earthquake disasters faced by the nation in the future. The much larger than maximum predicted Aceh Earthquake (M w 9.0–9.3) of 2004, followed by the destruction observed during the 2005 Nias Earthquake (M w 8.7) urgently underline to need to consider the new conceptual approach and technological shift shown in the transition of UBC 1997 to IBC 2006. This paper presents research works for developing spectral hazard maps for Indonesia. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented using recent seismic records. Seismic sources were modeled by background, fault, and subduction zones by considering a truncated exponential model, pure characteristic model or both models. A logic tree method was performed to account for the epistemic uncertainty and several attenuation functions were selected. Maps of PGA and spectral accelerations for a short period (0.2 s) and for a 1-s period were then developed using a probabilistic approach. The maps will be proposed as a revision for the current seismic hazard map in the Indonesian Seismic Building Code.  相似文献   

8.
In relation to the assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard, this paper discusses general principles and describes implementation criteria for seismic hazard estimates in landslide-prone regions. These criteria were worked out during the preparation of a hazard map belonging to the official Italian geological cartography and they are proposed as guidelines for future compilation of similar maps. In the presented case study, we used a procedure for the assessment of seismic hazard impact on slope stability adopting Arias intensity Ia as seismic shaking parameter and critical acceleration a c as parameter representing slope strength to failures induced by seismic shaking. According to this procedure, after a preliminary comparison of estimated historical maximum values of Ia with values proposed in literature as landslide-triggering thresholds, a probabilistic approach, based on the Newmark’s model, is adopted: it allows to estimate the minimum critical acceleration a c required for a slope to keep under a prefixed value, the probability of failures induced by seismic shakings expected in a given time interval. In this way, one can prepare seismic hazard maps where seismic shaking is expressed in an indirect way through a parameter (the critical acceleration) representing the “strength” that seismic shakings mobilise in slope materials (strength demand) with a prefixed exceedance probability. This approach was applied to an area of Daunia (Apulia—southern Italy) affected by frequent landslide phenomena. The obtained results indicate that shakings with a significant slope destabilisation potential can be expected particularly in the north-western part of the area, which is exposed to the seismic activity of Apennine tectonic structures.  相似文献   

9.
A geotechnical information system (GTIS) was constructed within a spatial geographic information system (GIS) framework to reliably predict geotechnical information and accurately estimate site effects at Gyeongju, an urban area in South Korea. The system was built based on both collected and performed site investigation data in addition to acquired geo-knowledge data. Seismic zoning maps were constructed using the site period (T G) and mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m (V S30), and these maps were presented as a regional strategy to mitigate earthquake-induced risks in the study area. In particular, the T G distribution map indicated the susceptibility to ground motion resonance in periods ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 s and the corresponding seismic vulnerability of buildings with two to five stories. Seismic zonation of site classification according to V S30 values was also performed to determine the site amplification coefficients for seismic design and seismic performance evaluation at any site and administrative subunit in the study area. In addition, we investigated the site effects according to subsurface and surface ground irregularities at Gyeongju by seismic response analyses in time domains based on both two- and three-dimensional spatial finite element models, which were generated using spatial interface coordinates between geotechnical subsurface layers predicted by the GTIS. This practical study verified that spatial GIS-based geotechnical information can be a very useful resource in determining how to best mitigate seismic hazards, particularly in urban areas.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, liquefaction potential of soil is evaluated within a probabilistic framework based on the post-liquefaction cone penetration test (CPT) data using an evolutionary artificial intelligence technique, multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP). Based on the developed limit state function using MGGP, a relationship is given between probability of liquefaction (PL) and factor of safety against liquefaction using Bayesian theory. This Bayesian mapping function is further used to develop a PL-based design chart for evaluation of liquefaction potential of soil. Using an independent database of 200 cases, the efficacy of the present MGGP-based probabilistic method is compared with that of the available probabilistic methods based on artificial neural network (ANN) and statistical methods. The proposed method is found to be more efficient in terms of rate of successful prediction of liquefaction and non-liquefaction cases, in three different ranges of PL values compared to ANN and statistical methods.  相似文献   

11.

The problem of settlement of shallow foundations is among the most important ones in classical soil mechanics. And while for the settlement of flexible foundations elastic solutions are widely used, for rigid rectangular foundations where the actual contact pressure distribution is still unknown, the problem is approximated either analytically assuming a contact pressure distribution or semi‐empirically combining the theory of elasticity with experimental and/or numerical results. A third and often attractive choice is the use of simple empirical relationships or relevant tabulated values relating the elastic settlement of rigid foundations (ρR) with the settlement of the respective flexible foundations (e.g. at the center, ρCe). Reviewing the relathionships of this third approach, the author revealed serious lack of consesous between the various sources; for example, according to the literature, ρR ranges between 68 and 125% of ρCe, the time when it is well-known that ρR?<?ρCe. In this paper, comparison of the settlement of 210 rigid foundation cases derived from 3D elastic finite element analysis, with the settlement of the respective flexible foundations derived from the theory of elasticity, led to simple empirical relationships between ρR and ρCe as well as between ρR and ρAv (ρAv?=?average settlement of the flexible foundation) with coefficient of determination (R2) almost unity. The analysis showed that these relationships are largely independent of the aspect ratio of foundations and the thickness and Poisson’s ratio (ν) of the compressible medium, although separate relationships are given for ν?=?0.5, slightly increasing R2. Finally, a correction factor for foundation rigidity is given exploting the known linear relationship that exists between the relative stiffness factor of foundations and settlement.

  相似文献   

12.
This study investigates the ground movements due to mechanized tunnel excavation by applying two-dimensional finite element analyses. To assess the contribution of the compressibility and plasticity of the soil on the ground movements, different constitutive models are employed to describe the soil behavior. The influence of volume loss around the tunnel on the surface volume loss is investigated, and a quadratic correlation between them is proposed. Consequently, the empirical Gaussian distribution curve, which is generally used to determine the tunneling induced settlement trough, is improved by applying the proposed quadratic correlation between surface volume loss and tunnel volume loss. Furthermore, the settlement trough width parameter has been derived by a linear function of tunnel volume loss as well. The proposed equations are validated via a case study of centrifuge tests from the literature. The results show that the proposed modification enhances the empirical solution by having better knowledge on the model parameters. Additionally, tunnel overburden and coefficient of lateral earth pressure at rest (K0) are taken into account to study their influence on the tunneling induced surface settlements. Finally, global sensitivity analysis is applied to evaluate the relative importance of corresponding model parameters in terms of their influence on the ground movements.  相似文献   

13.
Osterberg-Cell (O-Cell) tests are widely used to predict the load–settlement behavior of large-diameter drilled shafts socketed in rock. The loading direction of O-Cell tests for shaft resistance is opposite to that of conventional downward load tests, meaning that the equivalent top load–settlement curve determined by the summation of the mobilized shaft resistance and end bearing at the same deflection neglects the pile-toe settlement caused by the load transmitted along the pile shaft. The emphasis is on quantifying the effect of coupled shaft resistance, which is closely related to the ratios of pile diameter to soil modulus (D/Es) and total shaft resistance to total applied load (Rs/Q) in rock-socketed drilled shafts, using the coupled load-transfer method. The proposed analytical method, which takes into account the effect of coupled shaft resistance, was developed using a modified Mindlin’s point load solution. Through comparisons with field case studies, it was found that the proposed method reasonably estimated the load-transfer behavior of piles and coupling effects due to the transfer of shaft shear loading. These results represent a significant improvement in the prediction of load–settlement behaviors of drilled shafts subjected to bi-directional loading from the O-Cell test.  相似文献   

14.
Hamouda  Amr Z. 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(1):465-479
The entrance of the southern Suez Gulf of the Red Sea is known to be an area of high seismic activity in Egypt. The high rate of seismic activity in this area is mainly related to the adjustment in motion at the triple junction between the African plate, the Arabian plate, and the Sinai microplate. The present study attempts to estimate the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) for Hurghada site. This was done in two steps; the first one is by estimating specific parameters for the site, such as the mean seismic activity, λ, the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m max. The second step is by selecting a ground motion parameter that is applicable to Hurghada site. The procedure permits the combination of both historical and recent instrumental data. The results of the hazard assessment, expressed as the worst case scenario, detect that Hurghada is exposed to the maximum credible earthquake event of magnitude m max = 7.1 ± 0.31, at hypocentral distance of 31.6 ± 10 km. The possibility of the maximum Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which occurred in relation to this event at Hurghada site, is equal to 0.29 g. The mean return periods with the selected accelerations for Hurghada, a horizontal acceleration of 0.1 g, is expected to occur once every 74–106 years, with an average of one every 90 years. This result which obtained from the hazard assessment can be used as an input data for a seismic risk assessment.  相似文献   

15.
Seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been evaluated in northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity data. We present here a preliminary seismic zoning in northern Algeria as derived from the obtained results.Initially, we have compiled an earthquake catalog of the region taking data from several agencies. Afterwards, we have delimited seismic areas where the b and mmax parameters are different. Finally, by applying the methodology proposed by Frankel [Seismol. Res. Lett. 66 (1995) 8], and using four complete and Poissonian seismicity models, we are able to compute the seismic hazard maps in terms of PGA with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.A significant result of this work is the observation of mean PGA values of the order of 0.20 and 0.45 g, for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively, in the central area of the Tell Atlas.  相似文献   

16.
Incidents of hazardous accumulations of CO2 in homes built on or near reclaimed mine land, in the last decade, have been shown to be linked to neutralization reactions between acidic mine drainage and carbonate material. Recent research has shown that CO2 fluxes on reclaimed mine land with this hazard are, sometimes, spatially autocorrelated (i.e., the spatial variability is not random). This result implies geostatistics can be used to delineate hazardous areas where fluxes are likely to exceed established thresholds. This study applies sequential Gaussian simulation to delineate this emerging hazard on a site in southwestern Indiana, USA. Due to lack of regulatory threshold limits for CO2 flux at the current time, the authors conduct a sensitivity analysis of the threshold limit using the 75th, 90th and 95th percentiles of the measured fluxes for the first day of monitoring. These limits are used to produce hazard maps, which are validated with the known hazard at the site. This work further shows the potential of surface CO2 flux monitoring as a cheap and effective strategy to monitor and delineate such hazards to avoid residential and commercial real estate development in high risk zones.  相似文献   

17.
This paper proposes a systematic framework for real-time assessment of spatial liquefaction hazard of port areas considering local seismic response characteristics based on a geographic information system (GIS) platform. The framework is integrated and embedded with sequential, interrelated subprocedures and a database for liquefaction-induced damage evaluation that standardizes and both individually and collectively quantifies analytical results. To integrate the current in situ condition of a selected port area, the framework functions as a spatial database system for geotechnical and structural data and as a recipient of automatic transmission of seismic monitoring data. The geotechnical profile correlated with liquefaction potential is compiled into a geotechnical spatial grid built by geostatistical methods. Linked with the geotechnical spatial grid, the processing of site-specific responses is automatically interpreted from previously derived correlations between rock acceleration and maximum acceleration of each soil layer. As a result, the liquefaction severity is determined based on a combined geotechnical spatial grid with seismic load correlation in real-time according to a simplified procedure, allowing calculation of the liquefaction potential index (LPI). To demonstrate practical applications of the framework in estimating the liquefaction hazard in real-time, liquefaction-hazard maps were visualized for two earthquake scenarios, verifying the applicability of the proposed framework.  相似文献   

18.
We report a comparative study on the high pressure (HP) structural behaviour of a fibrous zeolite (with EDI topology) on the basis of rigid unit modes (RUM) modelling and previously published single-crystal X-ray diffraction. HP single-crystal diffraction data lead to a more precise determination of the elastic parameters (axial and volume compressibilities) useful to define the equation-of-state under isothermal conditions, and the structural refinements are useful to describe the main deformation mechanisms of the Si/Al framework and extra-framework content at high pressure. The RUM modelling is applied to simulate the compressive behaviour of the framework, under hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic conditions, using a minimum number of parameters, and to describe the deformation mechanism intuitively in terms of the rotations of the SiO4 polyhedra. The local and global P-induced deformation mechanisms of the Si/Al framework observed in experiment (channel ellipticity, SBU rotation) are well reproduced by RUM modelling. The simulation of uniaxial compression (non-hydrostatic conditions) shows an interesting result on the structural behaviour. This comparative study tests the reliability of the RUM modelling in open-framework silicates with a complicated crystal structure.Electronic Supplementary Material: Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at  相似文献   

19.
To examine the roles of settlement and early post-settlement processes in patterns of recruitment of the soft shell clamMya arenaria, abundance of juvenileMya at three intertidal sites in Barnstable Harbor, Massachusetts, was monitored over two settlement seasons. Two peaks of settlement occurred in 1998 (July and September) and one peak was recorded in June 1999, indicating that a late season settlement event is not a consistent feature at this site. Abundance of recent settlers (i.e., early recruits, < 1 week past settlement) varied significantly among the tidal flats (sites) that were separated by hundreds of meters to kilometers, but not among plots meters apart. Differences in abundance of settlers likely resulted in these differences in early-recruit abundance among sites. Settlement was greatest at the site with the greatest variability in flow speed. Sites also differed to some extent in their sediment characteristics and macrofaunal assemblages, which may influence larval substrate choice. Between-site differences in abundance ofMya decreased after settlement. The rate of decline of abundance varied among cohorts and sites. Comparison of abundance of recent settlers (up to 145,000 m−2) to that of juveniles > 3-mm shell length at the end of the settlement season (up to 60 m−2) indicated large losses of individuals during the early post-settlement period. This study demonstrates that spatial patterns inMya abundance can change substantially during the early post-settlement period, and that high mortality rates can result in cohorts contributing little to the population size even when rates of settlement are high.  相似文献   

20.
Nuclear power plants are designed to prevent the hazardous effects of the earthquakes and any external events to keep the safety of the plant. Ninety-one shallow seismic refraction profiles were performed to determine shear wave velocity of the engineering layers at the site of El Dabaa area that is situated to the northern coastline of Egypt for seismic hazard microzonation evaluation according to hazard index values. A microzonation is a procedure of delineating an area into individual zones having different ranks of numerous seismic hazards. This will aid in classifying areas of high seismic risk which is vigorous for industrial design of nuclear structures. The site response analysis requires the characterization of subsurface materials considering local subsurface profiles of the site. Site classification of the area under investigation was undertaken using P- and S-waves and available borehole data. The studied nuclear power plant site has been characterized as per NEHRP site classification using an average velocity of transverse wave (V s 30 ) of depth 30 m which acquired from seismic survey. This site was categorized into two site classes: the major one is “site class B,” and the minor one is “site class A.” The attenuation coefficient, the damping ratio and the liquefaction potential are geotechnical parameters which were derived from P- and S-waves, and have their major effects on the seismic hazard contribution. 1D ground response analysis was carried out in the places of seismic profiles inside the site for estimating the amount of ground quaking using peak ground acceleration (PGA), site amplification, predominant frequency and spectral accelerations on the surface of ground by the DEEPSOIL software package. Seven factors (criteria) deliberated to assess the earthquake hazard index map are: (1) the peak ground acceleration at the bedrock, (2) the amplification of the site, (3) the liquefaction potential, (4) the main frequency of the earthquake signal, (5) the average V s of the first 30 m from the ground surface, (6) the depth to the groundwater and (7) the depth to the bedrock. These features were exemplified in normalized maps after uniting them to 0–1 scores according to some criteria by the minimum and maximum values as linear scaling points. Multi-criteria evaluation is an application of multi-criteria decision analysis theory that used for developing a seismic hazard index map for a nuclear power plant site at El Dabaa area in ArcGIS 10.1 software. Two models of decision making were used in this work for seismic hazard microzonation. The analytic hierarchy process model was applied to conduct the relative weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison using Expert Choice Software. An earthquake hazard index map was combined using Weighted Linear Combination model of the raster weighted overlay tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The results indicated that most of the study site of the nuclear power plant is a region of low to moderate hazard; its values are ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.  相似文献   

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