Long-term relationships between climate oscillation and basin-scale hydrological variability during rainy season in eastern Northeast Brazil

ABSTRACT

The high variability in the hydrological regime of the Eastern Hydrological Region (EHR) of Northeast Brazil often results in floods and droughts, leading to serious socio-economic issues. Therefore, this work aimed to investigate connections between spatiotemporal hydrological variability of the EHR and large-scale climate phenomena. Multivariate statistical techniques were applied to relate climate indices with hydrological variables within two representative river basins in the EHR. The results indicated a multi-annual relationship between the state of the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and anomalous hydrological variability in the basins. In addition, the northern Tropical Atlantic conditions were shown to play an important role in modulating the long-term variability of the hydrological response of the basins, whilst only extreme ENSO anomalies seemed to affect the rainy season. This knowledge is an important step towards long-term prediction of hydrological conditions and contributes to the improvement of water resources planning and management in the EHR.     

南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系

本文对长江中下游夏季旱涝年前期（3、4、5月的季节平均）和同期（6、7、8月的季节平均）的南半球环流作对比分析,探讨南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系. 结果表明前期和同期南半球环流均有显著差异,春季南极涛动对长江中下游旱涝的影响较夏季显著,南半球副热带高压在春、夏两季中有很好季节持续性. 因此,春季南半球环流异常可以作为长江中下游夏季旱涝主要短期气候预测因子. 南、北半球中高纬环流相互作用是长江中下游夏季降水的一个重要因素,其可能的联系机制是从南半球高纬到北半球东亚沿岸经向分布的正压遥相关. 研究中还发现在长江中下游的涝年,整个对流层中南半球春、夏两季有持续增温,这说明了南北半球的温度梯度减弱也是东亚夏季风减弱的原因之一.     

Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome

A long record (1862–2004) of seasonal rainfall and temperature from the Rome observatory of Collegio Romano are modeled in a nonstationary framework by means of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Modeling analyses are used to characterize nonstationarities in rainfall and related climate variables. It is shown that the GAMLSS models are able to represent the magnitude and spread in the seasonal time series with parameters which are a smooth function of time. Covariate analyses highlight the role of seasonal and interannual variability of large-scale climate forcing, as reflected in three teleconnection indexes (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Mediterranean Index), for modeling seasonal rainfall and temperature over Rome. In particular, the North Atlantic Oscillation is a significant predictor during the winter, while the Mediterranean Index is a significant predictor for almost all seasons.     

On the maintenance of the atmosphere's kinetic energy over the Northern Hemisphere in winter

Summary A quantitative study of the balance requirements of the atmosphere's kinetic energy during normal winter conditions is made for the whole Northern Hemisphere and separately for the tropics (0–30°N) and the extratropics (30–90°N) by using different sources of data. The most important new finding is a demonstration of the existence (on the isobaric surfaces) of meridional eddy flux of potential energy; this flux approximately counterbalances the meridional flux of kinetic energy. One of the conclusions reached is that maintenance of the large-scale eddies in the tropics is mainly due to forcing by extratropical eddies. This forcing occurs at 30°N as a southward eddy flux of potential energy.     

Impact of stress and disturbance factors on the phytoplankton communities in Northeastern Brazil reservoir

The ecology of phytoplankton reservoir communities plays a pivotal role in their management and in the development of inland fisheries in the water scarce semi-arid regions of Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil. The hydrological conditions characterizing these reservoirs include infrequent rainfall and high evaporative loses. The phytoplankton assemblages in tropical climate are structured primarily on dry and wet cycles, not the annual temperature and light regime. The purpose of the current study was to investigate the ecological aspects of phytoplankton communities from three reservoirs during the period of July 2003–June 2004, which include atypical summer rainfall and reservoir overflow. The environmental data broadly divided into two categories, stress factors and disturbance factors. The stress factors deals with the impact of high particulate organic matter and low dissolved oxygen concentrations and disturbance factors, linked to water level fluctuation through flushing and reservoir drawdown, and these events are associated with the phytoplankton assemblages. Results indicated that the three distinct hydroperiods determined the structure of phytoplankton and chlorophyll levels and limited the presence and relative abundance of cyanobacterial species. Phytoplankton succession accompanied changes in clear and turbid water phase represented by the alternate dominance between diatoms and chlorophytes. Inundation and complete filling of reservoir stimulated “s” and “r” strategists species (<20 um) of unicellular and some colonial members of chlorophytes and cryptomonads in highly turbid water environment, and “c” strategist species in rest of the wet period following disturbance gradients. Statistical analysis elicited a significant relationship between particulate organic matter and relative abundance of smaller chlorophytes, which was deemed as stress factor. The flushing and reservoir drawdown indicate disturbance gradient and as a consequence high diversity. Furthermore, a substantial reduction in chlorophyll levels was registered in turbid water phase is related to the reduction of light penetration and re-suspension of sediments. Considering these results, it can be suggested that the well-managed reservoir drawdown can possibly maintain an environment free of eutrophication and cyanobacterial dominance.     

A preliminary study of precipitable water over Brazil

A preliminary study of precipitable water over Brazil is attempted. Mean values for January are presented in this paper. A regression equation connecting the surface dew-point temperature and the precipitable water was computed along the lines of studies made by Reitan (1963), and the results are presented.     

北半球大气遥相关型与区域尺度大气扰动

北极涛动(AO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和太平洋—北美型(PNA)等北半球大气遥相关型,可以用大气位势高度的物理分解扰动分量解释.结果发现,AO反映的是北极地区行星尺度纬圈平均扰动分量的变化,PNA与持续性天气尺度扰动分量相联系,NAO是行星尺度纬圈平均扰动与天气尺度扰动共同作用的结果.对行星尺度纬圈平均扰动分量和天气尺度扰动分量用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)展开,不但可以证实人们已经命名的区域性大气涛动,还新发现了北极地区的两对偶极涛动、欧亚涛动(EAO)和"大西洋—欧亚型"(AEA)波列.这些涛动连接了相邻地区的异常天气和异常气候.     

Connections between the distribution of prevailing winds in the winter Northern Hemisphere, solar/geomagnetic activity and the QBO phase

The effect of solar/geomagnetic activity and QBO phase on the distribution of winds prevailing in the winter periods (January–March) in the Northern Hemisphere at the altitude of 850 mb was studied. Analysis has shown that the zonal flow over the North Atlantic under high geomagnetic activity intensifies and under low solar/geomagnetic activity weakens. Flow deviations, associated with geomagnetic activity, are more marked under the QBO-east phase, and flow deviations, associated with solar activity, are more marked under the QBO-west phase. The results reported by Venne and Dartt (1990) concerning the wind distribution in the winter (February–March) Northern Hemisphere under high and low solar activity and a QBO-west phase, have been confirmed, and supplemented with wind distributions under high and low geomagnetic activity.     

Dynamical influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation on the Northern Hemisphere mesosphere during the boreal winter

This study first investigates the effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere(NH)mesosphere. Both observations and simulations suggest significant cooling in the NH polar mesosphere approximately 35 days after MJO phase 4(P4), which lags the MJO-induced perturbation in the upper stratosphere by 10 days. The enhanced planetary waves(PWs) propagate upward and result in wavenumber-1 pattern temperature anomalies in the mesosphere lagging MJO P4 by 25 days. The anomalous PWs also lead to the weaker eastward zonal wind in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere lagging MJO P4 by 30 days. Simultaneously, the weaker westerlies result in weaker climatological westward gravity waves(GWs) in the mesosphere due to critical-level filtering. The mesosphere meridional circulation is suppressed due to both anomalous PWs and GWs, and this suppression causes polar mesospheric cooling lagging MJO P4 by 35 days.     

The evolution of coupling of Asian winter monsoon and high latitude climate of Northern Hemisphere

The evolution and driving mechanism of the Asian winter monsoon system are of great importance to understanding the present-day climate. Through high-resolution particle size analysis of the oldest loess-red clay sequence known so far (with a basal age of about 8 Ma) and comparison of the results with oxygen isotope curves from North Atlantic marine sediments, 4 stages of the evolution of the Asian winter monsoon were clearly demonstrated. During the first stage, between about 8.1 and 4.3 Ma, there was no relation between Asian winter monsoon and Northern Hemisphere ice volume and high latitude climate inferred from marine sediments. A weak relation developed during the second stage, about 4.3 to 3.5 Ma. During the third stage (3.5 to 2.6 Ma) an Asian winter monsoon system similar to the present formed, initiating a stronger relation between the winter monsoon and Northern Hemisphere ice volume and high latitude climate. In the final stage (2.6 to 0 Ma) the present Asian winter monsoon system was fortified and stabilized and changes in the winter monsoon system were almost in phase with Northern Hemisphere ice volume and climate. The staggered uplift of Tibetan Plateau at ≈8, 3.6, 2.6 Ma and later might be the driving force for the evolution of the Asian winter monsoon.

     

Teleconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought over Iran using quantile regressions

ABSTRACT

In this research, the Bayesian quantile regression model is applied to investigate the teleconnections between large oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Iran. The 12-month SPI time series from 138 synoptic stations for 1952–2014 were selected as the drought index. Three oceanic–atmospheric indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were selected as covariates. The results show that NAO has the weakest impact on drought in different quantiles and different regions in Iran. La Niña conditions amplified droughts through all SPI quantiles in western, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The positive phase of MEI significantly modulates low SPI quantiles (i.e. drought conditions) throughout the Zagros region, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The study shows that the effect of large oceanic–atmospheric indices have heterogeneous impacts on extreme dry and wet conditions.     

Gravity-geoelectric joint inversion over the Potiguar rift basin, NE Brazil

A joint inversion of gravity and geoelectrical data has been performed along a 100 km long profile across the oil-bearing Potiguar rift basin in NE Brazil. The integrated approach is based on the connection between density and resistivity of a sedimentary sequence through the porosity. Seventy-one gravity stations and twenty-nine vertical electrical soundings were carried out across the central part of the Early Cretaceous basin in the Precambrian Borborema Province to apply the proposed joint inversion. Both the physical properties and geometry of the multilayer deep model were well constrained by a wide set of prior information obtained by surface mapping, geophysical logs and seismic sections. The results reveal a rift architecture formed by a 5000 m thick half-graben structure separated by an intervening basement high and an extensive adjacent platform with a sedimentary infill of about 300 m thick. The calculated model shows geometries for the sedimentary density/resistivity interfaces in agreement with the seismostratigraphic sequences revealed by seismic section, representing a substantial improvement in comparison with previously published gravity models.     

Increasing rainfall,decreasing winds,and historical changes in Santa Catarina dunefields,southern Brazil

Morphological and vegetation changes on the Moçambique barrier dunefield system are examined for the period 1938–2002 from aerial photography, and a variety of factors are investigated as possible driving factors. Human factors include a decrease in grazing pressure and tree felling from the early 1960s onwards after 200 years of these activities, and fires. In the 1960s tree planting also took place. During the period 1963 to 1970 there was a marked decline in drift potential (DP – potential sand transport), and then a period of very low DPs (1970–1974). This period falls within the time interval when vegetation cover significantly increased by ~70% along the Moçambique barrier (from 1956 to 1978). During the 1960s to present, the rainfall increased. Analyses of other transgressive dunefields in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul states show similar trends so it is likely that climatic factors such as increasing rainfall and decreasing DPs are responsible for driving dunefield changes and vegetation colonization of the barriers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The QBO effect on the solar signal in the global stratosphere in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere

This paper contains correlations between the NCEP/NCAR global stratospheric data below 10 hPa and the 11-year solar cycle. In the north summer the correlations between the stratospheric geopotential heights and the 11-year solar cycle are strong and positive on the Northern Hemisphere and as far south as 30°S, whereas they are weak in the north winter all over the globe. If the global stratospheric heights and temperatures in the north winter are stratified according to the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere, their correlations with the solar cycle are large and positive in the Arctic in the west years of the QBO but insignificantly small over the rest of the earth, as far as the South Pole. In the east years, however, the arctic correlations with the solar cycle are negative, but to the south they are positive and strong in the tropical and temperate regions of both hemispheres, similar to the correlations with the full series of stratospheric data in the other seasons. The influence of the solar cycle in the Arctic is stronger in the latter half of the winter. The global difference, in the northern winter, in the sign and strength of the correlations between the stratospheric heights and temperatures and the solar cycle in east and west years of the QBO can be ascribed to the fact that the dominant stratospheric teleconnection and the solar influence work in the same direction in the east years, but oppose each other in the west years.     

Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007

Abstract

Currently there is much discussion regarding the impact of climate change and the vagaries of the weather, in particular extreme weather events. The Himalayas form the main natural water resource of the major river systems of the Indian region. We present a brief review of the available information and data for extreme rainfall events that were experienced in different sectors of the Himalayas during the last 137 years (1871–2007). Across the entire Himalayas, from east to west, there are now 822 rainfall stations. There was an increase in the rainfall station network from 1947 onwards, especially in the Nepal and Bhutan Himalayas. Extreme one-day rainfall has been picked out for each station irrespective of the period for which data are available. The decadal distribution of these extreme one-day rainfalls shows that there is a considerable increase in the frequencies during the decades 1951–1960 to 1991–2000, whereas there is a sudden decrease in the frequencies in the present decade during 2001–2007, indicating the need to understand the response of the systems to global change and the associated physical and climatological changes. This is essential in terms of preserving this natural resource and to encourage environmental management and sustainable development of mountain regions.

Citation Nandargi, S. & Dhar, O. N. (2011) Extreme rainfall events over the Himalayas between 1871 and 2007. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 930–945.     

2021/2022年东亚大陆冬季前暖后冷的环流差异及其成因

2021/2022年冬季东亚大陆地区整体以偏冷为主,气温季节内变化显著,前冬(2021年12月1日—2022年1月26日)气温偏高,后冬(2022年1月28日—2月24日)气温偏低;气温变化的空间差异较大,呈现出显著的北暖南冷特征,尤其在冷时段,南部地区气温偏低幅度比北部地区大1℃左右.本文利用逐日中国观测站点资料和NCEP/NCAR、ERA5等再分析资料分析了2021/2022年冬季东亚大陆前暖后冷的可能原因,发现与冬季气候密切相关的西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风、平流层极涡、高原高度场、西太平洋副热带高压、东亚高空西风急流、北半球平流层环状模(NAM)等大尺度环流系统均发生了显著的转折性变化,直接导致了东亚大陆冬季前暖后冷的季节变化,但乌拉尔山高压在冷暖时段的变化差异并不明显.另外,赤道中东太平洋冷海温和北大西洋暖海温在后冬的加强变化通过对大气环流的强迫影响,对2022/2021年后冬冷时段冷空气的加强和低温冷事件的发生起到了十分重要的作用.

     

Sea-salt aerosol transport patterns over the Northern Hemisphere inferred from two subarctic ice core records

Ice core records provide the most direct, detailedand complete measure of past climate change[1,2]. Gla-ciochemical records have been used to investigate thechanges in atmospheric circulation patterns overGreenland Ice Sheet and West Antarctic[3—6]. Mostrecently, major ion series developed from new suban-nual scale sampling of GISP2 ice core from centralGreenland are calibrated with instrumental series ofsea level pressure (SLP) provide proxy records of ma-jor marine (Icelandic Low) and…     

南极涛动异常及其对冬春季北半球大气环流影响的数值模拟试验

利用IAP9L-AGCM模式考察了模式中与南极涛动异常相关的海温敏感区,发现南半球高纬海温异常能够强迫出南极涛动异常,而赤道东太平洋海温异常与太平洋南美型密切相关.研究了南极涛动异常对冬春季北半球大气环流及亚洲北部气温的影响,结果表明,南极涛动加强,能够引起北半球高纬环流异常和欧亚西风加强,以及亚洲北部地表气温和850 hPa气温显著增温.数值模拟支持了已有的诊断结果,也证实了冬春季节南极涛动异常下两半球高纬间的经向遥相关存在.     

The role of dynamics in total ozone deviations from their long-term mean over the Northern Hemisphere

Total ozone anomalies (deviation from the long-term mean) are created by anomalous circulation patterns. The dynamically produced ozone anomalies can be estimated from known circulation parameters in the layer between the tropopause and the middle stratosphere by means of statistics. Satellite observations of ozone anomalies can be compared with those expected from dynamics. Residual negative anomalies may be due to chemical ozone destruction. The statistics are derived from a 14 year data set of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer January 1979-Dec. 1992) and corresponding 300 hPa geopotential (for the tropopause height) together with 30 hPa temperature (for stratospheric waves) at 60°N. The correlation coefficient for the linear multiple regression between total ozone (dependent variable) and the dynamical parameters (independent variables) is 0.88 for the zonal deviations in the winter of the Northern Hemisphere. Zonal means are also significantly dependent on circulation parameters, besides showing the known negative trend function of total ozone observed by TOMS. The significant linear trend for 60°N is 3 DU/year in the winter months taking into account the dependence on the dynamics between the tropopause region and the mid-stratosphere. The highest correlation coefficient for the monthly mean total ozone anomalies is reached in November with 0.94.     

The seasonal cycle of redistribution of atmospheric mass between continent and ocean in the Northern Hemisphere

Using NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses,we studied the seasonal cycle of redistribution of air mass between continents and oceans over the Northern Hemisphere.Our results demonstrate that air mass in the Northern Hemisphere shifts clearly between continents and oceans when the season cycles.In July,the air mass reaches its lowest over Eurasia and its highest over the Pacific,and the opposite occurs in January.However,a different scenario is observed over the north Atlantic;the accumulated air mass reaches its maximum there in May.The maintenance of the accumulation or loss of air mass in a region is found to be related to the areal mean air mass flux divergence and the difference between precipitation and evaporation in an air column.The zonal-vertical circulations change with season,with the air ascent and decent reversed between land and sea.Besides,there also exists a noticeable difference of water vapor content of the air between continents and oceans,and this difference is season-dependent.Physically,the vapor content is able to significantly affect the atmosphere in absorbing solar short-and earth’s long-wave radiations,hence influencing atmospheric thermal conditions.The land-sea thermal contrasts inclusive of the diabatic heating rate changes their signs with season going on,resulting in the reversal of orientations of the temperature gradient.These thermal forcings not only facilitate the formation of the monsoons but also indirectly induce the seasonal cycle of the air mass exchanging over regions between continents and oceans.