黄土高原不同生态类型NDVI时空变化及其对气候变化响应

了解植被的时空变化及其气候主控因子可为植被保护和恢复提供重要的理论依据。基于MOD13A1和气象数据,分析了黄土高原Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI）时空变化特征,探讨了NDVI对水热条件在不同时间尺度的响应特征。结果表明：黄土高原植被覆盖状态正在不断的改善,气候呈暖湿的发展趋势;83.77%的植被退化区（退化区面积占研究区总面积的5.79%）海拔<2000 m且退化类型以不显著减少为主,不同覆被类型的退化区海拔分布及退化比例差异明显,湿地的退化面积比最高（23.91%）、其次耕地（11.88%）。年尺度上,NDVI与降水呈正相关的面积高于气温,约75.06%的区域受水分条件控制;灌木地（海拔分布<2200 m）、耕地（<3000 m）、草地（<3000 m）和裸地（600~3700 m）等植被生长受水分条件影响;森林（<1000 m、1700~3700 m）和湿地（>2500 m）的植被生长受热量影响。月尺度上,黄土高原植被NDVI对热量响应以滞后1个月为主,不同植被对水热响应的滞后性差异明显,草地、湿地、耕地和裸地对热量响应以滞后1个月为主;森林和灌木地则表现水热同期的特征。伴随滞后时间的推移,水分主控面积逐渐降低,热量成为影响植被生长的主要因素,水热主控及响应滞后性分布受海拔影响明显。     

Two centuries of temperature variation and volcanic forcing reconstructed for the northern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The northern Tibetan Plateau has been subject to recent warming far above the global average. With few instrumental climate records available for this region before the 1950s, paleoclimatic reconstructions must be used to understand annual-to-centennial-scale climate variations and local climate response to large-scale forcing mechanisms. We developed a maximum latewood density chronology of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) from the southern slope of the Qilian Mountains, northern Tibetan Plateau. Based on the chronology, we reconstructed August–September temperature for 1780–2008. The temperature reconstruction model accounts for 39.7% of instrumental temperature variance from 1957 to 2008, successfully capturing the most recent warming. Superposed epoch analysis indicated a volcanic forcing for temperature, resulting in pulses of cooler conditions that can persist for 2–4 years. Tree-ring data indicated that warm-dry and cold-wet climate combinations mainly occurred in northern Tibetan Plateau before CE 1900, and revealed a clear wetting and warming trend since the 1980s. Our study provides long-term perspective on recent climate change in northern Tibetan Plateau to guide expectations of future climate variability and aid sustainable development, and provides scenarios for climate change adaptation and inputs for climate models representing a broader range of conditions than those of historical climate records.     

基于生态地理分区的青藏高原植被覆被变化及其对气候变化的响应

基于1982~2006年GIMMS NDVI数据集和地面气象台站观测数据,分析了青藏高原整个区域及各生态地理分区年均NDVI的变化趋势,并通过偏相关分析研究不同生态地理分区植被覆被变化对气温和降水响应的空间分异特征。研究表明:(1)近25年来,高原植被覆盖变化整体上趋于改善;高原东北部、东中部以及西南部湿润半湿润及部分半干旱地区植被趋于改善,植被覆盖较差的北部、西部半干旱和干旱地区呈现退化趋势;(2)高原植被变化与气温变化的相关性明显高于与降水变化的相关性,说明高原植被年际变化对温度变化更为敏感;(3)高原植被年际变化与气温和降水的相关性具有明显的区域差异,植被覆盖中等区域全年月NDVI与气温和降水的相关性最强,相关性由草甸向草原、针叶林逐步减弱,荒漠区相关性最弱。生长季植被覆盖变化与气温的相关性和全年相关性较一致,降水则不同,生长季期间高原大部分地区植被变化与降水相关性不显著。     

三江源区径流演变及其对气候变化的响应(英文)

Runoff at the three time scales(non-flooding season,flooding season and annual period) was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai(Yellow River Source Region:YeSR),Zhimenda(Yangtze River Source Region:YaSR) and Changdu(Lancang River Source Region:LcSR) by hydrological modeling,trend detection and comparative analysis.Also,future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested.The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR,which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River,and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin,but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years.Compared with the runoff in baseline(1990s),the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years(2010-2039),especially in the non-flooding season.Thus the water shortage in the midstream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously.The runoff in YaSR would increase,especially in the flooding season,thus the flood control situation would be severe.The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff,and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly,while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain.It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model.Furthermore,the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR,followed by YeSR and LcSR.     

新疆水文水资源变化及对区域气候变化的响应

Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series, the surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the flood frequency and peak flow. Results showed that climate of all parts of Xinjiang conformably has experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang was the area that changed most significantly followed by southern and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variation, river runoff had changed both inter-annually and intra-annually. The surface runoff of most rivers has increased significantly since the early 1990s, and some of them have even witnessed the earlier spring floods, later summer floods and increasing flood peaks. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. Flood frequency and peak flow increased all over Xinjiang. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.     

Hydrology and water resources variation and its response to regional climate change in Xinjiang

Based on the surface runoff, temperature and precipitation data over the last 50 years from eight representative rivers in Xinjiang, using Mann-Kendall trend and jump detection method, the paper investigated the long-term trend and jump point of time series, the surface runoff, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Meanwhile, the paper analyzed the relationship between runoff and temperature and precipitation, and the flood frequency and peak flow. Results showed that climate of all parts of Xinjiang conformably has experienced an increase in temperature and precipitation since the mid-1980s. Northern Xinjiang was the area that changed most significantly followed by southern and eastern Xinjiang. Affected by temperature and precipitation variation, river runoff had changed both inter- annually and intra-annually. The surface runoff of most rivers has increased significantly since the early 1990s, and some of them have even witnessed the earlier spring floods, later summer floods and increasing flood peaks. The variation characteristics were closely related with the replenishment types of rivers. Flood frequency and peak flow increased all over Xinjiang. Climate warming has had an effect on the regional hydrological cycle.     

21世纪以来青藏高寒草地的变化特征及其对气候的响应

利用遥感数据和气象观测资料探索气候因子对区域植被变化的驱动作用具有重要意义。以1980-2012年气象数据和2000-2012年MODIS-NDVI数据为数据源,借助线性回归和相关分析分别分析了青海和西藏两个地区21世纪以来气候变化对青藏高寒草地的影响机制。结果表明：（1）1980-2012年,青海和西藏地区均呈暖湿化的发展趋势。但21世纪以来,西藏地区降水呈不显著的减少趋势;整个青藏高原中部和西部地区增温趋势明显（>0.05 ℃·a-1）。（2）在年际尺度（2000- 2012年）上,青海地区NDVI呈显著增加的趋势,增长率为0.003·a-1（P<0.05）;西藏地区NDVI无变化趋势,区域尺度统计中植被退化与改善相互抵消。在空间上,青藏高原东北部地区NDVI呈良性趋势,部分区域增长斜率超过0.01·a-1。青藏高原南部地区NDVI呈变差趋势,变化斜率为0.008·a-1。（3）区域上的相关分析显示,在青海地区,降水量的增加和温度的升高共同促进了该区域植被的良性发展趋势;在西藏地区,降水量的减少和温度的升高可能是南部地区植被变差的重要原因。     

卫星遥感检测高原湖泊水面变化及与气候变化分析

对西藏西部的玛旁雍错、中部的纳木错和南部的普莫雍错三大湖泊地区,采用中巴资源卫星自1999年至2007年长时间序列的影像数据,通过最佳波段组合和时相的选取,高精度几何配准和镶嵌以及进行边缘信息提取等处理,绘制湖面变化解译图。并用一景同期ETM 图像作为辅助数据计算湖区地物光谱反射率曲线以辅助分类。为避免个别年份湖面变化出现偶然性,采用几个相邻年份湖面求取平均值的方法统计近年湖面面积。其结果与1984年中国科学院青藏高原综合科学考察队的数字对比表明,西藏南部的普莫雍错和中部的纳木错湖面有明显扩张,分别扩张了大约4.01%和4.55%;而西部的玛旁雍错近年间变化不大,甚至略有萎缩趋势,相比1984年也仅增长了1.31%。为研究西部地区和中东部地区出现不同变化的主要原因,通过对水位数据和气象特征因子的相关性分析,及对三地区近34年的气象资料,包括年均温度、年均降雨量、年均蒸发量等进行距平均值曲线拟合,发现中东部年均温和降雨量均呈显著增加趋势,而西部降雨量则呈微弱减少趋势。这说明近期湖面的扩张与气象资料分析的变化情况具有很好的一致性,反映遥感方法在湖泊水域变化检测方面具有较高的可用性。     

青藏高原土壤水分变化对近地面气温的影响

青藏高原为全球气候变化最为敏感的区域之一,探讨该地区土壤水分变化对近地面气温的影响将为青藏高原水汽循环研究及该地区对周边气候与环境的影响研究提供重要理论支撑。利用NCEP-CFSR数据集,基于土壤水分对近地面气温的影响机理,揭示了青藏高原不同季节、不同植被分区下土壤水分时空分异规律、土壤水分与蒸发率的响应与耦合状态及土壤水分通过蒸散发过程对近地面气温的影响。结果表明：① 不同季节下青藏高原土壤水分空间分布基本一致,除西北地区和喜马拉雅山脉外,整体呈现由东南向西北递减趋势,青藏高原地区存在干旱区变湿,湿润区变干的空间特征;② 青藏高原大部分区域土壤水分处于干湿过渡状态,其中青藏高原南部和东南部地区全年处于干湿过渡状态,而柴达木盆地几乎全年处于干旱状态;③ 近地面气温对土壤水分的响应在冬季最弱,在夏季最强且空间差异较小,其中在冬、春、夏季为负反馈,另外不同植被覆盖区近地面气温对土壤水分的敏感性差异很大。此项研究对于进一步探讨青藏高原地区陆气耦合状态及变化环境下的区域水汽循环及其效应具有重要理论意义。     

青藏高原不同时段气候变化的研究综述

1 Introduction The annual mean world temperature increased by about 0.6℃ from the late 1800s to the 1980s (Wang, 1994). The global environmental change is marked with “global warming” and its possible effects on the ecosystem as well as the production …     

青藏高原不同时段气候变化的研究综述

综述了近年来通过冰芯、树轮、湖泊沉积等记录对青藏高原不同时段气候变化研究取得的成果．并特别着重于末次间冰期以来青藏高原的气候变化特征。在末次间冰期．青藏高原气候变化剧烈,降温迅速升温缓慢;末次冰期温度变化与格陵兰冰芯记录具有较好一致性,同时也具有高原的独特性;新仙女木事件发生时间与欧洲和格陵兰冰芯的记录基本一致;全新世总体比较温暖;近2000年来温度变化在波动中逐渐上升;近代温度有加速升高的趋势。总体上青藏高原各种尺度上的气候变化要早于我国其它地区．变化的幅度也较大。     

纳木错流域近30年来湖泊-冰川变化对气候的响应

Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map, and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1991 and 2000, the authors artificially interpreted boundaries of lake and glaciers in Nam Co Catchment, and quantified lake-glacier area variations in different stages by "inte-grated method" with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000, lake area in-creased from 1942.34 km2 to 1979.79 km2 at a rate of 1.27 km2/a, while glacier area de-creased from 167.62 km2 to 141.88 km2 at a rate of 0.86 km2/a. The increasing rate of lake in 1991-2000 was 1.76 km2/a that was faster than 1.03 km2/a in 1970-1991, while in the same period of time, the shrinking rates of glaciers were 0.97 km2/a and 0.80 km2/a respectively.Important factors, relevant to lake and glacier response to the climate, such as air tempera-ture, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and their values in warm and cold seasons,were discussed. The result suggests that temperature increasing is the main reason for the accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake expansion is mainly induced by the increase of the gla-cier melting water, increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of potential evapotranspi-ration. Precipitation, evaporation and their linkages with lake enlargement on regional scale need to be thoroughly studied under the background of global warming and glacier retreating.     

1981-2010年气候变化对青藏高原实际蒸散的影响(英文)

From 1981 to 2010,the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration of the alpine ecosystem and the regional difference of effects in the Tibetan Plateau(TP) were studied based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic vegetation model and data from 80 meteorological stations.Changes in actual evapotranspiration(AET) and water balance in TP were analyzed.Over the last 30 years,climate change in TP was characterized by significantly increased temperature,slightly increased precipitation,and decreased potential evapotranspiration(PET),which was significant before 2000.AET exhibited increasing trends in most parts of TP.The difference between precipitation and AET decreased in the southeastern plateau and increased in the northwestern plateau.A decrease in atmospheric water demand will lead to a decreased trend in AET.However,AET in most regions increased because of increased precipitation.Increased precipitation was observed in 86% of the areas with increased AET,whereas decreased precipitation was observed in 73% of the areas with decreased AET.     

青藏高原冷暖气候变化趋势的R/S分析及Hurst指数试验研究

利用青藏高原1953-2002年77个气象台站的常规地面观测资料,选择不同类型变化趋势的部分台站。选取年平均气温(■)、年平均最低气温(min)、年平均最高气温(■max)、年极端最低气温(tmin)、年极端最高气温(Tmax)5项气候要素,运用R/S分析法研究并预测了青藏高原未来冷暖气候变化趋势,研究表明:青藏高原未来冷暖气候变化趋势与过去50年以来的变化有着很好的自相似性。今后青藏高原总体将继续变暖,用分形理论的原理,设计了一种Hurst指数试验。对青藏高原北部和南部的年平均气温、年平均最低气温进行了试验研究。结果表明:依据青藏高原北部和南部的区域平均气候倾向率,未来10年,■将升高0.2~0.4℃;min将升高0.3~0.5℃;min将升高0.7~0.8℃;■max将升高0.3~0.4℃;■max将升高0.4~0.6℃。其中年平均气温、年平均最低气温升高趋势的持续性很强,期间没有转折,没有冷暖变化的突变点。     

The response of lake-glacier variations to climate change in Nam Co Catchment, central Tibetan Plateau, during 1970–2000

Based upon the 1970 aero-photo topographic map, and TM/ETM satellite images taken in 1991 and 2000, the authors artificially interpreted boundaries of lake and glaciers in Nam Co Catchment, and quantified lake-glacier area variations in different stages by “inte-grated method” with the support of GIS. Results show that from 1970 to 2000, lake area in-creased from 1942.34 km2 to 1979.79 km2 at a rate of 1.27 km2/a, while glacier area de-creased from 167.62 km2 to 141.88 km2 at a rate of 0.86 km2/a. The increasing rate of lake in 1991–2000 was 1.76 km2/a that was faster than 1.03 km2/a in 1970–1991, while in the same period of time, the shrinking rates of glaciers were 0.97 km2/a and 0.80 km2/a respectively. Important factors, relevant to lake and glacier response to the climate, such as air tempera-ture, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and their values in warm and cold seasons, were discussed. The result suggests that temperature increasing is the main reason for the accelerated melting of glaciers. Lake expansion is mainly induced by the increase of the gla-cier melting water, increase of precipitation and obvious decrease of potential evapotranspi-ration. Precipitation, evaporation and their linkages with lake enlargement on regional scale need to be thoroughly studied under the background of global warming and glacier retreating.     

1982-2013年青藏高原植被物候变化及气象因素影响

根据NDVI3g数据,本文定义了18种植被物候指标研究植被物候变化情况。根据1:100万植被区划,把青藏高原划分为8个植被区分。对物候变化比较显著的区域,采用最高温度、最低温度、平均温度、降水、太阳辐射数据,运用偏最小二乘法回归（PLS）研究物候变化的气候成因。结果表明：① 青藏高原生长季初期物候指标,转折发生在1997-2000年,转折前初期物候指标平均提前2~3 d/10a;青藏高原末期物候指标转折发生在2004-2007年左右,生长季长度物候指标突变发生在2005年左右,转折前末期物候指标平均延迟1~2 d/10a、生长季长度平均延长1~2 d/10a;转折之后生长季初期物候指标推迟趋势的显著性水平仅为0.1,生长季末期物候指标、生长季长度指标趋势不显著。② 高寒草甸与高寒灌木草甸是青藏高原物候变化最剧烈的植被分区。高寒草甸区生长季长度的延长主要是由生长季初期物候指标提前导致的。高寒灌木草甸区生长季长度的延长主要是由于初期物候指标的提前,以及末期物候指标的推迟共同作用导致的。③ 采用PLS进一步分析气象因素对高寒草甸与高寒灌木草甸物候剧烈变化的影响。表明,温度对物候的影响占主导地位,两植被分区均显示上年秋季、冬初温度对生长季初期物候具有正的影响,该时段温度一方面会导致上年末期物候指标推迟,间接推迟生长季开始时间;另一方面高温不利用冬季休眠。除夏季外,其余月份最小温度对植被物候的影响与平均温度、最高温度的影响类似。降水对植被物候的影响不同月份波动较大,上年秋冬季节降水对初期物候指标具有负的影响,春初降水对初期物候指标具有正的影响。8月份限制植被生长季的主要因素是降水,此时降水与末期物候指标模型系数为正。太阳辐射对植被物候的影响主要在夏季与秋初。PLS方法在物候变化研究中具有较好的效果,本文研究结果将会对植被物候模型改进,提供有力的科学依据。     

伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应

研究植被物候是理解植被与气候关系的重要途径。在植被对气候变化响应的敏感地区,开展植被物候研究有助于揭示气候变化对植被的影响机制。基于2000-2015年MODIS EVI时间序列影像数据,利用Savitzky-Golay （S-G）滤波方法和动态阈值法提取伏牛山地2000-2015年森林植被物候参数,结合气温、降水数据,运用Man-Kendall趋势检验、Sen斜率、ANUSPLIN插值和相关性分析等方法,研究伏牛山地森林植被物候对气候要素（气温、降水）变化的响应。结果表明：① 伏牛山地森林植被生长季始期主要集中在第105~120 d,生长季末期主要集中在第285~315 d,生长季长度主要集中在165~195 d。从海拔梯度看,随海拔升高,生长季始期、末期和长度整体上分别呈显著推迟、提前及缩短趋势。② 生长季始期和生长季末期整体上呈推迟趋势,推迟的像元分别占森林植被的76.57%和83.81%。生长季长度整体呈延长趋势,延长的像元占比为61.21%。生长季始期变化特征主要是由该地区的春季气温降低所导致的。③ 研究区森林植被生长季始期与3月平均气温呈显著偏相关,且呈负相关的区域最多,即3月平均气温降低,导致生长季始期推迟;生长季末期与9月降水呈显著偏相关区域最多,且两者主要呈正相关,即9月降水增加,使生长季末期推迟。植被生长季长度由整个生长期的气温和降水来共同作用,对大多数的区域而言,8月的平均气温和降水与生长季长度的关系最为密切。     

Relationships between modern pollen and vegetation and climate on the eastern Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau ecosystem is fragile and sensitive to climate change. Understanding the relationships between modern pollen and the vegetation and climate of the region is critical for the evaluation of ecological processes.Here, we explore modern pollen assemblages of typical land-cover types at a large spatial scale by analyzing 36surface samples from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, supplemented by typical desert, desert-steppe, and steppe meadow transition data selected from the Chinese...     

青海季节冻土退化的成因及其对气候变化的响应

利用相关分析等数理统计学方法,分析了地形、气候等自然因子对季节冻土时空分布的影响,模拟了冻土对气温、降水、云量等气候因子变化的响应。研究表明:地形、气候因子对青海季节冻土的分布和演变有显著影响,气候变暖是造成季节冻土退化的主要原因;西宁城市化造成的"热岛效应"的加剧以及青海湖水位下降引起的"水体效应"的削弱等局地变化在某种程度上强化了季节冻土对气候变化的响应;季节冻土对气温变化的响应在旬、月尺度上较年际尺度上表现得更为明显,同时,随着冻土深度的加深其滞后效应越明显。     

An improvement of soil temperature simulations on the Tibetan Plateau

The simulation of soil temperature on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays a dominant role in the performance of both global climate and numerical weather forecast models. To improve the simulation of soil temperature on the TP, the Johansen soil thermal conductivity parameterization scheme was introduced into Community Land Model 3.5 (CLM3.5) and Regional Climatic Model 4 (RegCM4). The improved CLM3.5 and RegCM4-CLM were utilized to conduct offline and regional simulation experiments on the TP. Comparison of the new and old schemes revealed that CLM3.5 provides high thermal conductivity parameters of mineral soil solid on the TP. The Johansen scheme is more practical for the TP than the soil thermal conductivity parameterization in CLM3.5. The simulation of soil temperature and liquid water content was improved in offline experiment. The improved parameterization scheme can also reduce the simulation error of soil temperature in winter throughout the entire TP.