Environmental and resource footprints in a global context: Europe’s structural deficit in resource endowments

The European Union (EU) has proposed in its Resource-efficiency roadmap a ‘dashboard of indicators’ consisting of four headline indicators for carbon, water, land and materials. The EU recognizes the need to use a consumption-based (or ‘footprint’) perspective to capture the global dimension of resources and their impacts. In this paper, we analyse how the EU’s footprints compare to those of other nations, to what extent the EU and other major economies of the world rely on embodied resource imports, and what the implications are for policy making based on this comparison. This study is the first comprehensive multi-indicator comparison of all four policy relevant indicators, and uses a single consistent global Multi-Regional Input Output (MRIO) database with a unique and high level of product detail across countries. We find that Europe is the only region in the world that relies on net embodied imports for all indicators considered. We further find that the powerful economies of China and others in the Asia-Pacific already dominate global resource consumption from a footprint perspective, while they still haven’t reached the prosperity of developed countries. Competition for resources is hence likely to increase, making Europe even more vulnerable. A hot spot analysis suggests that final consumption of food, transport and housing are priorities for reduction efforts along the life cycle. Further, countries with a similar Human Development Index can have very different footprints, pointing at societal organisation at macro-level as option for improvement. This points at options for countries for lowering their footprint, becoming less dependent on embodied imports, while maintaining a high quality of life.     

Agricultural and forestry trade drives large share of tropical deforestation emissions

Deforestation, the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is largely driven by expanding forestry and agriculture. However, despite agricultural expansion being increasingly driven by foreign demand, the links between deforestation and foreign demand for agricultural commodities have only been partially mapped. Here we present a pan-tropical quantification of carbon emissions from deforestation associated with the expansion of agriculture and forest plantations, and trace embodied emissions through global supply chains to consumers. We find that in the period 2010–2014, expansion of agriculture and tree plantations into forests across the tropics was associated with net emissions of approximately 2.6 gigatonnes carbon dioxide per year. Cattle and oilseed products account for over half of these emissions. Europe and China are major importers, and for many developed countries, deforestation emissions embodied in imports rival or exceed emissions from domestic agriculture. Depending on the trade model used, 29–39% of deforestation-related emissions were driven by international trade. This is substantially higher than the share of fossil carbon emissions embodied in trade, indicating that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change need to consider the role of international demand in driving deforestation. Additionally, we find that deforestation emissions are similar to, or larger than, other emissions in the carbon footprint of key forest-risk commodities. Similarly, deforestation emissions constitute a substantial share (˜15%) of the total carbon footprint of food consumption in EU countries. This highlights the need for consumption-based accounts to include emissions from deforestation, and for the implementation of policy measures that cross these international supply-chains if deforestation emissions are to be effectively reduced.     

Affluence drives the global displacement of land use

Increasing affluence is often postulated as a main driver for the human footprint on biologically productive areas, identified among the main causes of biodiversity loss, but causal relationships are obscured by international trade. Here, we trace the use of land and ocean area through international supply chains to final consumption, modeling agricultural, food, and forestry products on a high level of resolution while also including the land requirements of manufactured goods and services. In 2004, high-income countries required more biologically productive land per capita than low-income countries, but this connection could only be identified when land used to produce internationally traded products was taken into account, because higher-income countries tend to displace a larger fraction of land use. The equivalent land and ocean area footprint of nations increased by a third for each doubling of income, with all variables analyzed on a per capita basis. This increase came largely from imports, which increased proportionally to income. Export depended mostly on the capacity of countries to produce useful biomass, the biocapacity. Our analysis clearly shows that countries with a high biocapacity per capita tend to spare more land for nature. Biocapacity per capita can be increased through more intensive production or by reducing population density. The net displacement of land use from high-income to low-income countries amounted to 6% of the global land demand, even though high-income countries had more land available per capita than low-income countries. In particular, Europe and Japan placed high pressure on ecosystems in lower-income countries.     

Spatially-explicit footprints of agricultural commodities: Mapping carbon emissions embodied in Brazil's soy exports

Reliable estimates of carbon and other environmental footprints of agricultural commodities require capturing a large diversity of conditions along global supply chains. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) faces limitations when it comes to addressing spatial and temporal variability in production, transportation and manufacturing systems. We present a bottom-up approach for quantifying the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions embedded in the production and trade of agricultural products with a high spatial resolution, by means of the integration of LCA principles with enhanced physical trade flow analysis. Our approach estimates the carbon footprint (as tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per tonne of product) of Brazilian soy exports over the period 2010–2015 based on ~90,000 individual traded flows of beans, oil and protein cake identified from the municipality of origin through international markets. Soy is the most traded agricultural commodity in the world and the main agricultural export crop in Brazil, where it is associated with significant environmental impacts. We detect an extremely large spatial variability in carbon emissions across sourcing areas, countries of import, and sub-stages throughout the supply chain. The largest carbon footprints are associated with municipalities across the MATOPIBA states and Pará, where soy is directly linked to natural vegetation loss. Importing soy from the aforementioned states entailed up to six times greater emissions per unit of product than the Brazilian average (0.69 t t⁻¹). The European Union (EU) had the largest carbon footprint (0.77 t t⁻¹) due to a larger share of emissions from embodied deforestation than for instance in China (0.67 t t⁻¹), the largest soy importer. Total GHG emissions from Brazilian soy exports in 2010–2015 are estimated at 223.46 Mt, of which more than half were imported by China although the EU imported greater emissions from deforestation in absolute terms. Our approach contributes data for enhanced environmental stewardship across supply chains at the local, regional, national and international scales, while informing the debate on global responsibility for the impacts of agricultural production and trade.     

Pollution embodied in trade: The Norwegian case

With the increase in international trade, it is becoming increasingly important to accurately determine environmental impacts resulting from pollution embodied in trade. Many previous studies have unrealistically assumed that imports are produced with the technology of the importing country. For countries with diverging technology and energy mixes the likely errors are significant. This study uses a model that explicitly includes regional technology differences to the case of Norway. It is found that CO₂ emissions embodied in imports was 67% of Norway's domestic emissions. Around a half of this embodied pollution originates in developing countries, yet they represent only 10% of the value of Norwegian imports. In addition the carbon leakage from non-Annex I countries was at least 30%. We then argue that basing emission inventories on consumption, rather than production, may resolve not only issues related to international trade, but also provide greater flexibility towards pollution intensive resource endowments, emission reductions, and participation levels.     

Economic and political drivers of environmental impact shifting between countries

There is mounting evidence that major improvements in environmental quality in high-income countries over the past decades may have been achieved to a large degree through relocation of environmental impacts of consumption to other, usually poorer countries. While political and academic debates on appropriate policy interventions to address this challenge are gaining ground, we still know rather little about the drivers of international environmental impact shifting, other than international trade flows per se. We address this issue by focusing on the effects of economic inequality and political factors. We argue that income inequality between and within countries as well as variation in political institutions, environmental clauses in preferential trade agreements (PTAs), and participation in international environmental treaties could be important drivers or mitigators of environmental impact shifting between countries. We use novel panel data on five types of environmental impact flows between country dyads (187 countries, 1990–2015) to assess these arguments. We find that richer countries and countries with higher domestic economic equality tend to be the “outsourcers”, and poorer, domestically more unequal countries the “insourcers” of environmental impacts. Discrepancies in democracy levels aggravate the outsourcing from more equal to more unequal societies. In turn, environmental clauses in PTAs have a mitigating effect on environmental impact shifting, but participation in international environmental agreements has no such effect. Our findings highlight the need for green economy policies that reduce environmental footprints of consumption not only within high-income democracies, but also make their global supply chains more sustainable.     

EU corporate action as a driver for global emissions abatement: A structural analysis of EU international supply chain carbon dioxide emissions

Global greenhouse gas emissions driven by European consumption increasingly occur outside European borders. These non-European sources of emissions remain linked to Europe via the international supply chains of European companies. Leading companies are now measuring their supply chain emissions and taking tentative steps to reduce them. If such activities were to become widespread, then an opportunity may exist for European industry to drive significant emissions abatement beyond European borders. This paper provides the first analysis into the maximum potential influence European industry has over its non-European supply chain emissions. The analysis is performed at the level of aggregate industry sectors using a global Multi-Regional Input–Output model. The Total Consumption Attribution method is used to estimate the potential influence of different European industries with detailed decompositions carried out using Structural Path Analysis techniques. The potential influence of European industry over non-European supply chain emissions is found to be greater than one gigatonne of carbon dioxide. The European manufacturing sector is found to have the greatest potential influence over non-European emissions via relatively short supply chains that entail few international border crossings. The results presented in this paper provide initial evidence in support of the development of European climate policies aimed at stimulating supply chain emissions reductions activities within European companies     

基于多区域投入产出模型中美贸易隐含能源、碳排放的测算

采用多区域投入产出模型（MRIO）,利用欧盟资助开发的世界投入产出表和环境账户数据,测算了1995—2009年中国与美国的增加值贸易规模及净值,在此基础上利用环境账户中的能源消耗和碳排放数据测算出中美外贸隐含能源和隐含碳排放总体水平及其行业结构。研究表明：1995—2009年,中国对美国的增加值出口保持持续增长的态势,尤其是在中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）后,但随后受2008年全球经济危机的影响,中国增加值出口规模有所减小;相比于美国,中国单位增加值能耗和碳排放水平较高,从而导致较大规模的隐含能源和隐含碳出口,长期处于隐含能源和隐含碳净输出国地位,且净输出规模呈现出上升的趋势;从行业结构来看,电力、燃气及水的供应业等能源行业是中国出口隐含能源和隐含碳排放的主要行业来源。     

International wood trade and forest change: A global analysis

Throughout history, humans have transformed natural forests into agricultural land, settlement areas and managed forests. Studies on the dynamics of forest change are one of the mainstays in land change science. The forest transition theory offers a powerful tool to analyze changes in human interference with forests. At the national level, a range of factors have been found to influence a country's forest change. The role of international wood product trade has, however, rarely been studied based on empirical data. We offer a global assessment of how this trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating forest stock change to net trade of wood products for the period 1997-2007 and by localizing the origin of wood consumed in a given nation. For many nations, traded wood products have a relevant impact on the course of ongoing forest transitions. We develop a general typology of how wood product trade can influence forest change and place various nations within this framework. We find that many wealthy nations with returning forests seem to accelerate this return by importing wood products. These imports appear to be provided by two main types of wood exporters: (a) by wealthy countries with low population densities and stable forests and (b) by relatively poor countries with declining forests, employing increasing population and welfare levels. We discuss these findings in the light of general theories on land use transitions and forest change and conclude by highlighting implications for national forest policies and global environmental governance, aiming at reducing negative impacts of wood products and enhancing the positive role they can play in replacing more fossil fuel intensive products.     

International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls

There is increasing interest in the water–food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. In this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30–60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss of productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. The global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies.     

Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use

Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.     

The global cropland footprint of Denmark's food supply 2000–2013

The global use of and pressure on land resources will continue to rise in tandem with the predicted rise in global population and food demand. Addressing unavoidable trade-offs between satisfying human needs and biodiversity conservation for future generations is of paramount importance when tackling the global environmental challenges of land use. Food consumption patterns are inextricably linked to land-use and land-use changes. The domestic supply and final use of food by humans and feed by animals within the borders of a country have environmental impacts overseas. Countries like Denmark, with considerably high livestock production, import “virtual” land needed to produce cereals and other fodder crops. Denmark's high meat and dairy consumption and trade levels make it a compelling case for this study. The overarching question is: how much land is required to support food and feed consumption in Denmark? This paper assesses the global cropland footprint of Danish food and feed supply from 2000 to 2013 using a consumption-based physical accounting approach. In addition to domestic croplands for local food and supply, we estimate the hectares of cropland displaced in other countries to satisfy Danish demand for food and feed in this period. Secondly, we calculate Denmark's global cropland requirements for the supply of specific livestock products, namely; pork, eggs, beef, milk, and mutton. Globally, animals provide a third of the protein in human diets and agricultural GDP. The total global cropland footprint of Danish food and feed supply decreased by 18% from 1568 kha in 2000 to 1282 kha in 2013 because of a reduction in the consumption of ruminant livestock products. A high share of this reduction can be attributed to increased local self-sufficiency in feed supply as opposed to rising food imports. The share of cropland used for feed in total cropland declined by 5% whereas the share of cropland used for food increased from 28% in 2000 to 32% by 2013. Our findings suggest that reducing domestic meat consumption coupled with local self-sufficiency policies for both food and feed supply could be a means of lowering ecological degradation in exporting countries.     

A sweet deal? Sugarcane,water and agricultural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, the area of sugarcane is rising rapidly in response to growing demands for bioethanol and increased sugar demand for human consumption. Despite considerable diversity in production systems and contexts, sugarcane is a particularly “high impact” crop with significant positive and negative environmental and socio-economic impacts. Our analysis is focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which is a critical region for continued expansion, due to its high production potential, low cost of production and proximity, and access, to European markets. Drawing on a systematic review of scientific evidence, combined with information from key informants, stakeholders and a research-industry workshop, we critically assess the impacts of sugarcane development on water, soil and air quality, employment, food security and human health. Our analysis shows that sugarcane production is, in general, neither explicitly good nor bad, sustainable nor unsustainable. The impacts of expansion of sugarcane production on the environment and society depend on the global political economy of sugar, local context, quality of scheme, nature of the production system and farm management. Despite threats from climate change and forthcoming changes in the trade relationship with the European Union, agricultural development policies are driving national and international interest and investment in sugarcane in SSA, with expansion likely to play an important role in sustainable development in the region. Our findings will help guide researchers and policy makers with new insights in understanding the situated environmental and social impacts associated with alternative sugar economy models, production technologies and qualities of management.     

Towards meaningful consumption-based planetary boundary indicators: The phosphorus exceedance footprint

The idea of measuring humanity’s footprint against planetary boundaries has attracted wide academic attention but methods to implement the theory in sustainability accounting remain underexplored. To help nations take collective actions to stay within a safe operating space, footprinting approaches need to be revised to accommodate biophysical limits. Here we develop a novel sustainability indicator, the phosphorus exceedance footprint (PEF) that measures countries’ contributions to the transgression of the planetary boundaries for phosphorus. Adopting a consumption-based perspective reveals how nations contribute to environmentally unsustainable phosphorus pollution in their trading partners. This captures country-specific transgression through supply chains in a way that complements conventional footprinting. In 2011, 27% of the world’s PEF was associated with international trade flows. Wealthier countries tend to reduce their domestic phosphorus fertiliser exceedance, thus preserving their own natural environment, while increasing their share of imported P-embodied products through trade. A pattern of highly uneven distribution of phosphorus-compromised economies is revealed, with 76% of the worldwide exceeded phosphorus embodied in exports supplied by only four countries: China (42%), Brazil (19%), India (10%) and New Zealand (54%). All countries transgress phosphorus planetary boundaries, even those that do not exceed their own territorial boundaries. Our findings highlight that mitigation strategies need to include international cooperation on increasing the efficiency of fertiliser use and reducing the demand of products that cause phosphorus exceedance.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Quantifying interregional flows of multiple ecosystem services – A case study for Germany

Despite a growing number of national-scale ecosystem service (ES) assessments, few studies consider the impacts of ES use and consumption beyond national or regional boundaries. Interregional ES flows – ecosystem services “imported” from and “exported” to other countries – are rarely analyzed and their importance for global sustainability is little known. Here, we provide a first multi-ES quantification of a nation's use of ES from abroad. We focus on ES flows that benefit the population in Germany but are supplied outside German territory. We employ a conceptual framework recently developed to systematically quantify interregional ES flows. We address four types of interregional ES flows with: (i) biophysical flows of traded goods: cocoa import for consumption; (ii) flows mediated by migratory species: migration of birds providing pest control; (iii) passive biophysical flows: flood control along transboundary watersheds; and (iv) information flows: China's giant panda loan to the Berlin Zoo. We determined that: (i) Ivory Coast and Ghana alone supply around 53% of Germany's cocoa while major negative consequences for biodiversity occurred in Cameroon and Ecuador; (ii) Africa´s humid and sub-humid climate zones are important habitats for the majority of migratory bird species that provide natural pest control services in agricultural areas in Germany; (iii) Upstream watersheds outside the country add an additional 64% flood regulation services nationally, while Germany exports 40% of flood regulation services in neighboring, downstream countries; (iv) Information flows transported by the pandas were mainly related to political aspects and - contrary to our expectations - considerably less on biological and natural aspects. We discuss the implications of these results for international resource management policy and governance.     

EU emissions trading and the cement sector: a spatial competition analysis

An oligopoly competition model is described and used to illustrate the potential effect of EU emissions trading and transport issues on the production decisions and profitability of cement producers in a typical western European country market. The role of geography is introduced from three viewpoints: the existence of regional markets, the fact that EU producers may operate multiple plants across these regions, and the possibility of production capacity constraints. A typical EU state is divided into a coastal region which is initially exposed to international competition, and an inland region which is initially protected. Assuming pure auctioning of EU Allowances and a range of CO₂ prices up to €50/t, our model predicts a large increase of imports into the coastal region. Consequences for the inland producers include reduced attractiveness of the coastal market, as well as increased competition from coastal producers and from non-EU imports. The model includes a number of simplifications and therefore does not claim to offer definitive predictions, but our results do suggest that an increase in non-EU imports could feasibly offset more than 70% of the decrease in EU cement sector emissions. The likely impact on producer profits is considered for each region, and the advantages and disadvantages of potential mitigating policy measures are reviewed for either the EU Allowance allocation process or border adjustments on cement products.     

Water use in China’s thermoelectric power sector

We quantify the current water use of China’s thermoelectric power sector with plant-level data. We also quantify the future implications for cooling water use of different energy supply scenarios at both a regional and national levels. Within China, water withdrawal and consumption are projected to exceed 280 and 15 billion m³ respectively by 2050 if China does not implement any new policies, up from current levels of 65.2 and 4.64 billion m³. Improving energy efficiency or transforming the energy infrastructure to renewable, or low-carbon, sources provides the opportunity to reduce water use by over 50%. At a regional level, central and eastern China account for the majority of the power sector’s water withdrawals, but water consumption is projected to increase in many regions under most scenarios. In high-renewable and low-carbon scenarios, concentrated solar power and inland nuclear power, respectively, constitute the primary fresh water users. Changing cooling technology, from open-loop to closed-loop in the south and from closed-loop to air cooling in the north, curtails the power sector’s water withdrawal considerably while increasing water consumption, particularly in eastern and central China. The power sector’s water use is predicted to exceed the regional industrial water quota under the ‘3 Red Line’ policy in the east under all scenarios, unless cooling technology change is facilitated. The industrial water quota is also likely to be violated in the central and the northern regions under a baseline scenario. Moreover, in line with electricity production, the power sector’s water use peaks in the winter when water availability is lowest. Water-for-energy is a highly contextual issue – a better understanding of its spatio-temporal characteristics is therefore critical for development of policies for sustainable cooling water use in the power sector.