A multi-level perspective on climate risks and drivers of entrepreneurial robustness – Findings from sectoral comparison in alpine Austria

Recent works on organizational adaptation to climate change have repeatedly stressed that – despite concerns about large-scale impacts of climate change on supply chain networks – studies on climate change adaptation in manufacturing industries are still surprisingly scarce. The following study develops a systemic analytical framework based on which climate risks for manufacturing industries are reviewed and drivers (defined as supportive factors) of entrepreneurial robustness are examined. The analysis builds upon a case study in the alpine Austrian state of Tyrol where an intense regional rise of average temperatures occurs, going along with increased risks of natural mountain hazards and exposed settlement structures. In this climate-sensitive setting the authors conducted a survey on risk perceptions among 102 managers from manufacturing firms. Based on a comparison of the sectors metal and engineering, timber products, and construction, the authors argue that drivers of entrepreneurial robustness can be subsumed under five major strategic principles: (a) the deployment of slack resources, (b) vertical supply chain integration, (c) manufacturing flexibility, (d) material efficiency, and (e) technological risk prevention. Departing from the empirical results, the authors argue that across these principles the development of drivers depends on an interplay of structural prerequisites and human decisions on the levels of the focal firm, the supply chain network, and the political, economic, and geographic environment. In this sense, the authors conceptualize different forms of contingencies – thus effects influencing the development of drivers – within an ontology which may support further system-oriented analysis of climate change adaptation in industry.     

Evaluation of solar irradiance at the surface—inferences from in situ and satellite observations and a mesoscale model

Accurate information about the solar irradiance at the soil surface is essential for many agricultural, hydrological and environmental models that take into account the surface energy balance. The main goal of present study was to evaluate the solar irradiance predictions from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model for both clear sky and cloudy conditions. An extended observational dataset from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (AEMN) provided hourly solar irradiance at the surface and other collocated surface level measurements. The radiation bias (determined from the difference between the ARW predictions and AEMN observations) showed a linear relationship with the cloud optical depth and the cirrus cloud amount from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). For cloud-free days, the ARW model had a positive radiation bias that exceeded 120 W m^?2 over coastal and urban areas of Georgia. The model radiation and air temperature bias increased with increasing aerosol optical depth derived from the MODIS observations during the cloud-free days, attributed to fire events that lasted intermittently throughout the study period. The model biases of temperature, mixing ratio, wind speed, and soil moisture were linearly dependent on the radiation bias.     

Governing community forests and the challenge of solving two-level collective action dilemmas—A large-N perspective

The effectiveness of forest governance practices has consequences that range from the local to the global level. In general, the study of community forest governance relies heavily on case-study materials. The strength of single case and small-N comparative studies is related to the ability to uncover the nuances of time and place specific particularities. A recognized weakness of this approach relates to the fact that results cannot easily be extrapolated. For my analysis, I use a large-N, cross-national dataset instead. What constitutes an effective local forest governance regime? I show that especially monitoring – and to a lesser extent, maintenance – is correlated with improving forest conditions. When are effective governance regimes likely to emerge? I show that social capital, organization, leadership and autonomy contribute to the development of institutions for collective action. How does competition between forest users affect governance? I provide empirical evidence that two-level collective action dilemmas hinder the emergence of effective governance regimes.     

Formation of the anomalous summer precipitation in east China in 2010 and 1998: A comparison of the impacts of two kinds of El Niño

In the summers of 1998 and 2010, severe floods occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Although an El Niño event took place preceding each of the summer floods, significant differences between the two summer floods and the two El Niño events were identified. The 1997/98 El Niño is a conventional one with strongest warming in the central-eastern Pacific, whereas the 2009/10 event is an El Niño Modoki with strongest warming in the central Pacific. In this study, summer rainfall anomalies (SRA) in the two years were first compared based on the rainfall data at 160 stations in mainland China, and a significant difference in SRA was found. To understand the underlying mechanism for the difference, the atmospheric circulation systems, particularly the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the low-level air flows, were compared in the two years by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results display that the WNPAC was stronger in 2010 than in 1998, along with a northwestward shift, causing weakened southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea but intensified southerly in eastern China. This resulted in less water vapor transport from the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea but more from the subtropical western Pacific to East Asia. Subsequently, the rainband in 2010 shifted northward. The difference in the WNPAC was caused by the anomalous ascending motion associated with the warming location in the two El Niño events. Furthermore, the role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating these differences was investigated by conducting sensitivity experiments using GFDL AM2.1 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model). Two experiments were performed, one with the observed monthly SST and the other with June SST persisting through the whole summer. The results suggest that the model well reproduced the primary differences in the atmospheric circulation systems in the two years. It is found that the difference in El Niño events has shaped the rainfall patterns in the two years of 1998 and 2010. At last, the case of 2010 was compared with the composite of historical El Niño Modoki events, and the results indicate that the impact of El Niño Modoki varies from case to case and is more complicated than previously revealed.     

Remote and in situ measurements of aerosol concentration in the Arctic troposphere from the Yak-42D “Roshydromet” research aircraft

The results are presented of measurements of aerosol content at different heights in the Arctic troposphere in the area of Naryan-Mar city and the Yamal Peninsula on June 24, 2014 using in situ and remote instruments installed on the Yak-42D "Roshydromet" research aircraft. The maximum aerosol content was detected in the layer up to 3000 m, and the aerosol concentration in the troposphere over the Yamal Peninsula is higher than that in the area of Naryan-Mar by 100 times. The in situ aircraft instrument measured the number concentration of black carbon particles in the tropospheric aerosol. To identify the sources of aerosol in the Arctic troposphere during airborne measurements the air mass trajectory analysis was performed. Simulations were conducted using the TRACAO trajectory model and FLEXPART particle dispersion model. The possible contribution of long-range and local transport of industrial pollutants to the Arctic troposphere was analyzed. The air mass transport was simulated using the trajectory model. Model computations of aerosol concentration in the troposphere using the satellite data on the gas flaring incite that the high content of black carbon in the lower troposphere over the Yamal Peninsula was caused by its transfer from the oil-producing areas located on the adjoining territory of Russia. The contribution of long-range transport of pollutants from industrial enterprises in Western Europe to the Arctic area under study was insignificant in the period under consideration.     

A revised picture of the structure of the “monsoon” and land ITCZ over West Africa

This article presents an overview of the land ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) over West Africa, based on analysis of NCAR–NCEP Reanalysis data. The picture that emerges is much different than the classic one. The most important feature is that the ITCZ is effectively independent of the system that produces most of the rainfall. Rainfall linked directly to this zone of surface convergence generally affects only the southern Sahara and the northern-most Sahel, and only in abnormally wet years in the region. A second feature is that the rainbelt normally assumed to represent the ITCZ is instead produced by a large core of ascent lying between the African Easterly Jet and the Tropical Easterly Jet. This region corresponds to the southern track of African Easterly Waves, which distribute the rainfall. This finding underscores the need to distinguish between the ITCZ and the feature better termed the “tropical rainbelt”. The latter is conventionally but improperly used in remote sensing studies to denote the surface ITCZ over West Africa. The new picture also suggests that the moisture available for convection is strongly coupled to the strength of the uplift, which in turn is controlled by the characteristics of the African Easterly Jet and Tropical Easterly Jet, rather than by moisture convergence. This new picture also includes a circulation feature not generally considered in most analyses of the region. This feature, a low-level westerly jet termed the African Westerly Jet, plays a significant role in interannual and multidecadal variability in the Sahel region of West Africa. Included are discussions of the how this new view relates to other aspects of West Africa meteorology, such as moisture sources, rainfall production and forecasting, desertification, climate monitoring, hurricanes and interannual variability. The West African monsoon is also related to a new paradigm for examining the interannual variability of rainfall over West Africa, one that relates changes in annual rainfall to changes in either the intensity of the rainbelt or north–south displacements of this feature. The new view presented here is consistent with a plethora of research on the synoptic and dynamic aspects of the African Easterly Waves, the disturbances that are linked to rainfall over West Africa and spawn hurricanes over the Atlantic, and with our knowledge of the prevailing synoptic and dynamic features. This article demonstrate a new aspect of the West Africa monsoon, a bimodal state, with one mode linked to dry conditions in the Sahel and the other linked to wet conditions. The switch between modes appears to be linked to an inertial instability mechanism, with the cross-equatorial pressure gradient being a critical factor. The biomodal state has been shown for the month of August only, but this month contributes most of the interannual variability. This new picture of the monsoon and interannual variability shown here appears to be relevant not only to interannual variability, but also to the multidecadal variability evidenced in the region between the 1950s and 1980s.     

Analysis of high-resolution simulations for the Black Forest region from a point of view of tourism climatology �C a comparison between two regional climate models (REMO and CLM)

An analysis of climate simulations from a point of view of tourism climatology based on two regional climate models, namely REMO and CLM, was performed for a regional domain in the southwest of Germany, the Black Forest region, for two time frames, 1971?C2000 that represents the twentieth century climate and 2021?C2050 that represents the future climate. In that context, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and B1 are used. The analysis focuses on human-biometeorological and applied climatologic issues, especially for tourism purposes ?C that means parameters belonging to thermal (physiologically equivalent temperature, PET), physical (precipitation, snow, wind), and aesthetic (fog, cloud cover) facets of climate in tourism. In general, both models reveal similar trends, but differ in their extent. The trend of thermal comfort is contradicting: it tends to decrease in REMO, while it shows a slight increase in CLM. Moreover, REMO reveals a wider range of future climate trends than CLM, especially for sunshine, dry days, and heat stress. Both models are driven by the same global coupled atmosphere?Cocean model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Because both models are not able to resolve meso- and micro-scale processes such as cloud microphysics, differences between model results and discrepancies in the development of even those parameters (e.g., cloud formation and cover) are due to different model parameterization and formulation. Climatic changes expected by 2050 are small compared to 2100, but may have major impacts on tourism as for example, snow cover and its duration are highly vulnerable to a warmer climate directly affecting tourism in winter. Beyond indirect impacts are of high relevance as they influence tourism as well. Thus, changes in climate, natural environment, demography, tourists?? demands, among other things affect economy in general. The analysis of the CLM results and its comparison with the REMO results complete the analysis performed within the project Climate Trends and Sustainable Development of Tourism in Coastal and Low Mountain Range Regions (CAST) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).     

Upper-ocean dynamical features and prediction of the super El Niño in 2015/16: A comparison with the cases in 1982/83 and 1997/98

The 2015/16 super El Niño event has been widely recognized as comparable to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events. This study examines the main features of upper-ocean dynamics in this new super event, contrasts them to those in the two historical super events, and quantitatively compares the major oceanic dynamical feedbacks based on a mixed-layer heat budget analysis of the tropical Pacific. During the early stage, this new event is characterized by an eastward propagation of SST anomalies and a weak warm-pool El Niño; whereas during its mature phase, it is characterized by a weak westward propagation and a westward-shifted SST anomaly center, mainly due to the strong easterly wind and cold upwelling anomalies in the far eastern Pacific, as well as the westward anomalies of equatorial zonal current and subsurface ocean temperature. The heat budget analysis shows that the thermocline feedback is the most crucial process inducing the SST anomaly growth and phase transition of all the super events, and particularly for this new event, the zonal advective feedback also exerts an important impact on the formation of the strong warming and westward-shifted pattern of SST anomalies. During this event, several westerly wind burst events occur, and oceanic Kelvin waves propagate eastwards before being maintained over eastern Pacific in the mature stage. Mean-while, there is no evidence for westward propagation of the off-equatorial oceanic Rossby waves though the discharging process of equatorial heat during the development and mature stages. The second generation El Niño prediction system of the Beijing Climate Center produced reasonable event real-time operational prediction during 2014–16, wherein the statistical prediction model that considers the preceding oceanic precursors plays an important role in the multi-method ensemble prediction of this super.     

The source area influencing a measurement in the Planetary Boundary Layer: The “footprint” and the “distribution of contact distance”

This paper considers the ground area which affects the properties of fluid parcels observed at a given spot in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). We examine two source-area functions; the footprint, giving the source area for a measurement of vertical flux: and the distribution of contact distance, the distance since a particle observed aloft last made contact with the surface. We explain why the distribution of contact distance extends vastly farther upwind than the footprint, and suggest for the extent of the footprint the inequalities: % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqaqpepeea0xe9qqVa0l% b9peea0lb9Lq-JfrVkFHe9peea0dXdarVe0Fb9pgea0xa9W8qr0-vr% 0-viWZqaceaabiGaciaacaqabeaadaqaaqaaaOabaeqabaGaamyvam% aalaaabaGaamiAaaqaaiabeo8aZnaaBaaaleaacaWGxbaabeaakiaa% cIcacaWGObGaaiykaaaacqGH8aapcaWG4bGaeyipaWJaamyvaKazaa% iadaGabaqaamaaDaaajqwaacqaaiaadIgacaGGVaGabmOEayaacaGa% aiilaiaabccacaGGVbGaaiiDaiaacIgacaGGLbGaaiOCaiaacEhaca% GGPbGaai4CaiaacwgaaeaacaWGubWaaSbaaKazcaiabaGaamitaaqa% baqcKfaGaiaacIcacaWGObGaaiykaiaabYcacaqGGaGaaeiAaiaabc% cacaGGHbGaaiOyaiaac+gacaGG2bGaaiyzaiaabccacaGGZbGaaiyD% aiaackhacaGGMbGaaiyyaiaacogacaGGLbGaeyOeI0IaaiiBaiaacg% gacaGG5bGaaiyzaiaackhaaaaajqgaacGaay5EaaaakeaaaeaacaGG% 8bGaamyEaiaacYhacqGH8aapcqaHdpWCdaWgaaWcbaGaamODaaqaba% GccaGGOaGaamiAaiaacMcadaWcaaqaaiaadIhaaeaacaWGvbaaaaaa% aa!7877!\[\begin{array}{l} U\frac{h}{{\sigma _W (h)}} < x < U\left\{ {_{h/\dot z,{\rm{ }}otherwise}^{T_L (h){\rm{, h }}above{\rm{ }}surface - layer} } \right. \\ \\ |y| < \sigma _v (h)\frac{x}{U} \\ \end{array}\] where U is the mean streamwise (x) velocity, h is the observation height, _L is the Lagrangian timescale, _v and _w are the standard deviations of the cross-stream horizontal (y) and vertical (z) velocity fluctuations, and is the Lagrangian Similarity prediction for the rate of rise of the centre of gravity of a puff released at ground.Simple analytical solutions for the contact-time and the footprint are derived, by treating the PBL as consisting of two sub-layers. The contact-time solutions agree very well with the predictions of a Lagrangian stochastic model, which we adopt in the absence of measurements as our best estimate of reality, but the footprint solution offers no improvement over the above inequality.     

Correction to “the vertical distribution of climate forcings and feedbacks from the surface to top of atmosphere”

We discuss here a mistake in the analysis of Previdi and Liepert (Clim Dyn, 2011). In that article, the surface albedo radiative kernels were calculated incorrectly. We present in this brief comment the corrected albedo kernels. We then use these kernels to compute the surface albedo radiative feedback in climate model simulations driven by increasing carbon dioxide, as in Previdi and Liepert (Clim Dyn, 2011). We find that the use of the corrected albedo kernels does not change the conclusions of our earlier work.     

Characteristics of PM2.5 and Its Reactive Oxygen Species in Heating Energy Transition and Estimation of Its Impact on the Environment and Health in China——A Case Study in the Fenwei Plain

To reduce the adverse effects of traditional domestic solid fuel, the central government began implementing a clean heating policy in northern China in 2017. Clean coal is an alternative low-cost fuel for rural households at the present stage.In this study, 18 households that used lump coal, biomass, and clean coal as the main fuel were selected to evaluate the benefits of clean heating transformation in Tongchuan, an energy city in the Fenwei Plain, China. Both indoor and personal exposure(PE) ...     

A Synoptic Overview and Moisture Tra jectory Analysis of the“7.21” Heavy Rainfall Event in Beijing

The heavy rainfall in Beijing on 21 July 2012 was a high impact event. First, a synoptic overview of this event is presented based on the ECMWF reanalysis and forecast data, together with observations of hourly precipitation. It is found that an east to northeastward moving "low-level northwest vortex" caused this event. The vortex was formed under favorable circulation patterns and intensified by low-level dry intrusions. The source regions of the large volume of moisture necessary to sustain the intense rainfall are diagnosed by back-trajectory analysis. Approximately 77% of the moisture was transported from the Bay of Bengal(Bo B). The transport processes, including vertical profiles, mean humidity variations, and relative importance of the rain-paths, are further quantified by the back-trajectory analysis and cluster analysis.The results highlight the importance of the southwestern path in transporting moisture to northern China,which accounts for 88.4% of the moisture from the Bo B, and 68% of the total of the "7.21" heavy rainfall event.     

Preface to the Special Issue on the Program of “Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues”—A Strategic Scientific Pioneering Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

<正>Global warming has been one of the biggest issues faced by the world in recent decades.It is closely related to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases(GHGs)—mainly CO_2,CH_4 and N_2O—and the effects of reducing emissions and increasing the carbon fixation capability.China,as a large country with rapid economic and social development,has a major     

Precipitation anomalies,economic production,and the role of “first-nature” and “second-nature” geographies: A disaggregated analysis in high-income countries

Linkages between hydroclimate variability and economic development are often theorized to be present only in developing economies. Using spatially small-scaled data from multiple decades for European regions, we examine the relationship between precipitation anomalies and economic performance in highly developed economic systems. We conduct a disaggregated empirical analysis to mitigate the bias potentially arising from spatial aggregation because precipitation realizations tend to vary drastically within larger sized economic units. We modify original precipitation indices to capture the dynamic expectation formation of economic agents about climate conditions to measure deviations from these anticipated environmental states. Using panel model regressions in a quasi-experimental research design, we analyse whether deviations from average growth rates of aggregated economic output are potentially non-linearly related to the magnitude of precipitation deviations from the anticipated climate norm within regions, after accounting for any shocks common to all regions. We find that precipitation deviations that exceed critical thresholds (intermediate anomalies) for both unusually dry and unusually wet years reduce regional growth rates. The adverse impacts are more pronounced for overly dry periods. Importantly, the relationship between economic growth and precipitation anomalies is not generalizable across all regions. Natural geographical circumstances such as prevailing climatic conditions (“first-nature” geographies) and human-made socio-economic factors such as sector structure and income level (“second-nature” geographies) moderate the anomaly response. The empirical findings substantiate the necessity to incorporate precipitation variability into the assessment of economic costs of climate change; not only in developing countries or agricultural societies but also in highly developed economic systems. Moreover, the empirical results have important implications for policy makers as uneven effect sizes at the subnational level suggest that policy measures should be targeted in space and coordinated between national and regional levels of government.     

Soil erosion in the West African Sahel: a review and an application of a “local political ecology” approach in South West Niger

A review of soil erosion research in the West African Sahel finds that there are insufficient data on which to base policy. This is largely because of the difficulties of measuring erosion and the other components of “soil life”, and because of the highly spatially and temporarily variable natural and social environment of the Sahel. However, a “local political ecology” of soil erosion and new methodologies offer some hope of overcoming these problems. Nonetheless, a major knowledge gap will remain, about how rates of erosion are accommodated and appraised within very variable social and economic conditions. An example from recent field work in Niger shows that erosion is correlated with factors such as male migration, suggesting, in this case, that households with access to non-farm income adopt a risk-avoidance strategy in which soil erosion is accelerated incidentally. It is concluded that there needs to be more research into the relations between erosion and socio-economic factors, and clearer thinking about the meaning of sustainability as it refers to soil erosion in the Sahel.