Who governs here? Informal resource extraction,state enforcement,and conflict in Ghana

Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.     

The role of social networks in natural resource governance: What relational patterns make a difference?

Resent research has identified the existence of social networks as a common and important denominator in cases where different stakeholders have come together to effectively deal with natural resource problems and dilemmas. It has even been shown that social networks can be more important than the existence of formal institutions for effective enforcement and compliance with environmental regulations. However, all social networks are not created equal. On the contrary, the structural pattern of relations (i.e. the topology) of a social network can have significant impact on how actors actually behave. This clearly has implications for actors’ abilities to manage environmental challenges. This review aims to add more precision to initial insights and pending hypotheses about the positive impacts of social networks on governance processes and outcomes, by reviewing and synthesizing empirically based literature explicitly studying structural characteristics of social networks in natural resource governance settings. It is shown that significant differences in governance processes and outcomes can be expected among networks experiencing structural differences in terms of density of relations, degree of cohesiveness, subgroup interconnectivity, and degree of network centralization. Furthermore, the review shows that none of these structural characteristics present a monotonically increasing positive effect on processes of importance for resource governance, and that favoring one characteristic likely occurs at the expense of another. Thus, assessing the most favorable level and mix of different network characteristics, where most of the positive governance effects are obtained while undesired effects are minimized, presents a key research and governance challenge.     

Counter-conducts and the green grab: Forest peoples’ resistance to industrial resource extraction in the Saracá-Taquera National Forest,Brazilian Amazonia

This paper contributes to the theory of environmentality – the ‘conduct of conduct’ with regard to the environment – by incorporating Foucault’s notion of counter-conducts to elucidate the political subjectivities emergent from the performance of dissent in relation to different forms of power – sovereign, disciplinary and biopower – through which a spatialized rational-technical governmentality of ‘green’ mining and logging is enacted in Saracá-Taquera National Forest (FLONA), Brazilian Amazonia. We analyse the counter-conductive subjectivities emergent from forest peoples’ political articulation through identity categories riberinhos and quilombolas (enshrined in the 1988 Constitution and subsequent laws), claiming of rights to delimit areas of traditional use and ancestral territories, along with direct action, critical discourse and reassertion of agroecological knowledge against industrial resource extraction. To capture the dynamic relation of the conduct of conduct to counter-conducts we draw on a late Foucauldian model of a self, wherein his earlier focus on how the Panopticon shapes self-discipline is complemented by a turn to care for and ethics of the self - practices of freedom through which subjects have the potential to transcend self-discipline. We use this lens to illuminate two case-studies, one focusing on mining, the other on timber, exploring how in this protected area - which permits the ‘sustainable’ industrial extraction of natural resources - the state, companies and an NGO try to shape forest peoples as ‘green’ subjects. Counter-conducts provide the theory of environmentality with a broader perspective on resistance foregrounding the production of political subjectivities in dissent whilst breaking with the resistance-domination binary.     

How do natural resource dependent firms gain and lose a social licence?

A project, firm or industry whose activities are accepted by communities and stakeholders is said to have a social licence to operate. The importance of a social licence is increasingly being realized in natural resource industries where a project or firm can impose more environmental and social costs, e.g. pollution, or strain on service delivery and housing, on communities than they are willing to accept. However, the conditions that are necessary and/or sufficient to obtain/maintain a social licence are unclear. To rectify this gap, a global literature review paired with a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of 47 natural resource case studies from 25 countries was used to identify the conditions necessary and/or sufficient to: (1) obtain or lose a social licence; (2) result in voluntary practice change by firms; and/or (3) create regulatory change. No single condition out of the ten conditions tested was found to be necessary to obtain or lose a social licence or to change firm behavior. However, a combination of five conditions created a robust pathway for maintaining a social licence, including: (1) delivery (or perception) of net economic benefits beyond the firm; (2) adequate stakeholder consultation; (3) minimal media coverage; (4) minimal public protests; and/or (5) absence of well-defined and enforced private property rights. These results contribute to an understanding of the somewhat limited effectiveness of social licence as a form of governance, and suggest that social licence outcomes are determined by the expectations of stakeholders, decisions and behaviors of firms, and broader institutional governance factors.     

Prospects for a saturation of humanity’s resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035

Material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. Analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. However, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally.We present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. Material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. In 2015, China used half of global stock-building materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at ∼8%/year. The Industrialized regions, including the Former Soviet Union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at ∼1%/year. Stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at ∼3–5%/year. Inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. Trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth.Accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. Growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. Low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. In the industrialized regions and especially China, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. More materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism.     

Changes in extreme daily mean temperatures in summer in eastern China during 1955–2000

Summary Statistical characteristics of extremely low and high daily mean temperatures in summer (June, July and August) in eastern China have been investigated. The extremely low temperatures are defined as those days with temperatures not exceeding the 10th percentile with respect to the reference period of 1961–90; similarly the extremely high temperatures are defined as those exceeding the 90th percentile. There are well-defined spatial structures in trends of the frequency of extremely low temperatures as well as of high temperature extremes. In the north region (i.e. northern and northeastern China) the linear trends of frequency of low and high temperature extremes are –1.09 and +1.23 days/10yr, respectively. For the southern portion of the study area, the trends are –1.32 and –2.32 days/10yr. Taking the study area as a whole, the linear trends are –0.76 days/10yr and +1.08 days/10yr, respectively. The changes of frequency of extreme temperatures are mainly related to the shift in the temperature means. There is a dominant anticyclonic pattern in the lower- to middle troposphere over East Asia in association with warmer conditions in the north region. For the south region there is a jump-like change in the summer mean temperature and the extreme temperature events in around 1976. The large-scale northwestern Pacific subtropical high plays an important role in the jump-like changes of the temperature extremes.     

Advances in Severe Convection Research and Operation in China

This article reviews the advances in severe convection research and operation in China during the past several decades.The favorable synoptic situations for severe convective weather(SCW),the major organization modes of severe convective storms(SCSs),the favorable environmental conditions and characteristics of weather radar echoes and satellite images of SCW and SCSs,and the forecasting and nowcasting techniques of SCW,are emphasized.As a whole,Chinese scientists have achieved a profound understanding of the synoptic patterns,organization,and evolution characteristics of SCW from radar and satellite observations,and the mechanisms of different types of convective weather in China.Specifically,in-depth understanding of the multiple types of convection triggers,along with the environmental conditions,structures and organization modes,and maintenance mechanisms of supercell storms and squall lines,has been obtained.The organization modes and climatological distributions of mesoscale convective systems and different types of SCW,and the multiscale characteristics and formation mechanisms of large hail,tornadoes,downbursts,and damaging convective wind gusts based on radar,satellite,and lightning observations,as well as the related features from damage surveys,are elucidated.In terms of operational applications,different types of identification and mesoanalysis techniques,and various forecasting and nowcasting techniques using methods such as the"ingredients-based"and deep learning algorithms,have been developed.As a result,the performance of operational SCW forecasts in China has been significantly improved.     

The Duststorm in China

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Trends in CO2 emissions in Israel—an international perspective

As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel conducts a periodical inventory of greenhouse gases emissions. These data allowed the generation of time series of CO₂ emissions per capita and per GDP for the period 1990–2004. It was found that CO₂ emissions per capita increased dramatically from 1990 to 2000, reflecting the rapid economic growth that was initiated by the massive immigration wave at the beginning of the nineties. These emissions remained stable between 2000 and 2004, reflecting the economic stagnation caused by the uprising in the Palestinian Territories, as well as stagnation in the global economy. CO₂ emissions per GDP (CO₂ intensity) remained stable along the whole reviewed period. This stability can be explained by a shift in electricity consumption from the industrial sector towards the commercial and the residential sectors, corresponding to an increase in the standard of living in the same period. A comparison was held with countries considered as developed for many years represented by the five largest economies (G-5) and recently developed countries (RDCs). Although Israel exhibits emission levels within the range of the G-5 countries, it does not fit the patterns demonstrated by these countries. Trends observed in Israel resemble these observed in other RDCs, such as Spain or Greece, confirming the classification of Israel in this category.     

Progress in Marine Meteorology Studies in China during 1999-2002

The progresses of marine meteorology studies achieved in China during the four year period from 1999 to 2002 are summarized in six directions: air-sea flux, marine meteorology in high latitudes, marine disasters, connection between ocean and weather/climate in China, remote sensing applications and new methodologies in marine meteorology. Compared to the previous ones, these studies adopted much more first-hand datasets, and more scientific issues were involved. As an exciting remark, there were so many contributions done by the young scientists. A brief statement about the research strategy of marine meteorology in China for the coming years is also given.     

The rainfall regime in Lisbon in the last 150 years

The first decades of the rainfall series of Lisbon have been digitized recently allowing a long-term assessment of the rainfall regime for 150 years of uninterrupted, i.e., the first assessment for the longest continuous precipitation time series in western Iberia. This data has been monitored continuously at the D. Luís observatory having started to be published in 1864 in the Observatory's log books (Annals). We use an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime in that part of the world. Thus, a rain spell is defined as a series of consecutive days with a measured daily rainfall equal or higher than 1.0 mm. Each rain spell is preceded and followed by at least one dry day. For each rain spell, its duration, its yield (RSY), and its average intensity (RSI) was calculated. Additionally, the total number of rain spells in each year was also considered. Dryness was analyzed using the dry days since last rain approach. Besides the evaluation over the entire 150-year period available, we have also looked into three equally spaced sub-periods. Lisbon reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The large intra-annual variability is demonstrated by both; a very large range of annual rainfall percentage accumulated at any given date and by a very large range of dates on which a certain rainfall percentage was accumulated. Again, both metrics increased in the last decades. Parallel to the increase in the uncertainty, a very significant net increase is noticed in the annual totals since the 1960s compared to the first half of the previous century. The increase is mainly due to more intense events which are reflected by higher RSY and RSI values in the last 50 years.     

Variability and trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range in Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia in 1951–2010

Spatial distribution and trends in mean and absolute maximum and minimum temperatures and in the diurnal temperature range were analysed at 47 stations in the eastern Baltic region (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) during 1951–2010. Dependence of the studied variables on geographical factors (latitude, the Baltic Sea, land elevation) is discussed. Statistically significant increasing trends in maximum and minimum temperatures were detected for March, April, July, August and annual values. At the majority of stations, the increase was detected also in February and May in case of maximum temperature and in January and May in case of minimum temperature. Warming was slightly higher in the northern part of the study area, i.e. in Estonia. Trends in the diurnal temperature range differ seasonally. The highest increasing trend revealed in April and, at some stations, also in May, July and August. Negative and mostly insignificant changes have occurred in January, February, March and June. The annual temperature range has not changed.     

Changes in the rainfall–streamflow regimes related to climate change in a small catchment in Northern Italy

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on...     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

Current Trends in Atmospheric Circulation in the Azov–Black Sea Region

The daily parameters characterizing the field of surface air pressure from 1960 to 2014 are used for assessing the current trends in atmospheric circulation over the Azov–Black Sea region. It was revealed that the decrease in mean air pressure and the weakening of northeastern air trans port which was typical of the atmospheric circulation in this region in the previous period (1960–1990), occurred from 1991–1993 to 2005–2007. In recent 7–8 years, the ongoing air pressure drop is accom panied by the intensification of northeastern air transport.     

Dynamical changes in the ENSO system in the last 11,000 years

A thorough analysis of a proxy El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) record indicates that a bifurcation occurred in the ENSO system sometime around 5,000 years b.p. As a result of this bifurcation the attractor became higher dimensional and a new mechanism of instability was introduced. As a consequence of these changes the system switched from a dynamics where the normal condition (La Nina) was dominant to a dynamics characterized by more frequent and stronger El Nino events.